The six-game main slate gets underway at a traditional 7:05 ET start time on DraftKings, and possibly on FanDuel as well. The blue site is having some technical issues that are preventing contests from populating in the lobby but we have been assured that things will be fixed before lock. The slate includes 12 teams with an interesting mix of starting pitching options that include a few high-end arms and a mix of quality third or fourth starters to utilize at a range of prices. A few spots stand out at the plate more than others, they will likely soak up some concentrated ownership on this slate, which creates opportunities across the board. There are few enough games that we can take up several strong positions while still covering a wide range of less likely outcomes, making this a fun but challenging slate.
Don’t miss our new Stack Suggestions feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
Join us at 4:00 pm ET for the MLB DFS Lineup Card Show and a full game-by-game breakdown:
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 7/3/23
Baltimore Orioles (-111/4.37) @ New York Yankees (102/4.23)
The slate opens with an AL East battle that sees the Orioles and Yankees take the field in the Bronx. The home team will have Domingo German on the mound tonight, the righty threw the 24th perfect game in MLB history in his last outing so it would be fair to say that he is not likely to be quite as good on Monday night. German is an effective strike-thrower who runs into trouble with mistakes left out over the zone, he has a 23.5% strikeout rate with a terrific 13.8% swinging-strike rate and a strong 30.1% CSW% but has allowed a 4.52% home run rate on 9.4% barrels and 40.2% hard hits. The righty can be very good when he is on, clearly, but he is not the most reliable starter, however, at $7,200/$8,100, reliability is not an issue. German ranks fourth in our pitching projections, he is a strong option on this slate from the mid-range of both price and talent. The Orioles lineup is also drawing good projections in the hitter-friendly environment in which this game will be played. The productive Baltimore lineup is slated to open with Gunnar Henderson in the leadoff role, but we may see Cedric Mullins reclaim that spot. In either instance, the lineup will begin with an excellent left-handed hitter. Henderson is slashing .239/.341/.453 with a .214 ISO and 11 home runs while creating runs 21% better than average, and Mullins is at .248/.341/.437 with a .189 ISO and eight home runs while posting a run creation mark that is 17% above standard. Catcher Adley Rutschman has 11 home runs on the season and is the latest player to declare for this season’s Home Run Derby. The backstop is having a great season and belongs in stacks of Orioles on both sites for $5,100/$3,000. Anthony Santander will challenge German with power on the left side, as will veteran Ryan O’Hearn. Santander is cheap for his talents at $4,600/$3,300 in the outfield, while O’Hearn is playing above his head so far this season but costs just $3,500/$2,600 as an easy option. Mullins or Henderson will slot in fifth behind O’Hearn and before Aaron Hicks, Ramon Urias, Adam Frazier, and Jorge Mateo who round out the projected lineup as mix-and-match pieces with talent. Hicks has moderate power and can work a walk, Urias hit 16 sneaky home runs last year and is always cheap and under-owned, Frazier has good pop and speed at cheap prices, and Mateo has star-caliber speed and wildly inconsistent production.
The Yankees will face righty Tyler Wells, who has been effective outside of allowing too much premium contact and too many home run balls this season. Wells costs just $7,700/$9,500, his discounted DraftKings price makes him a solid option for shares on the site, the cost on FanDuel will probably keep gamers away from Wells to some degree. Wells has a 26.5% strikeout rate over 92.2 innings and 15 starts this season, there is potential to rack up a few bonus strikeouts against this weak Yankees lineup and his 5.6% walk rate should go well with their single-digit walk rates as hitters. Wells is in line for clean innings and a good start if he can avoid the home run ball, so far this season he has given up a 5.31% home run rate on 11.6% barrels and 38% hard hits. This, naturally, feeds into projections for some of the Yankees’ power hitters. Most notably, Giancarlo Stanton leads our home run model for the entire day at 13.99. Stanton has struggled with his timing since rejoining the team, he has seven home runs on the season in 139 plate appearances but is slashing .195/.259/.398 with a 78 WRC+ while striking out 25.2% of the time. Ahead of the slugger in the projected lineup, the Yankees should have Gleyber Torres, Harrison Bader, and Anthony Rizzo, all of whom are playable parts with upside. Torres has had an up-and-down season but does have power at the plate with 12 home runs, he has created runs six percent better than average and costs $4,900/$2,800 at second base. Bader has been out of the lineup for a large portion of the season with injuries but has managed six home runs and seven stolen bases in his 137 plate appearances. Rizzo has slumped badly to .267/.360/.425, his left-handed power and ability to get on base are what we are interested in for $3,800/$2,900 at first base, the Yankees team stack comes cheap tonight if nothing else. Jake Bauers slots into the lineup fifth with righty slugger Josh Donaldson sixth. The lefty-righty power do is playable, Bauers has been moderately effective with seven home runs in 147 plate appearances while Donaldson has been selling out for power and has eight homers in 89 opportunities. Billy McKinney has made 66 plate appearances and has been making the most of the opportunity, but he is not what anyone would call a good player at $2,300/$2,800. Anthony Volpe has been coming on strong and is up to 90 WRC+ over 312 plat appearances and is finally starting to collect base hits. Kyle Higashioka makes strong contact to limited results as a cheap low-owned catcher.
Play: Domingo German, Tyler Wells, Orioles bats/stacks, Yankees bats/stacks in that order
Update Notes:
Atlanta Braves (-136/4.61) @ Cleveland Guardians (+125/3.99)
The Braves will face Guardians’ premium pitching prospect Gavin Williams in an interesting challenge for the young righty. Williams is a peak prospect both organizationally and around the league, he has excellent stuff with an explosive fastball that can push triple-digits and sits in the high 90s. Williams has made two starts and has a 21.7% strikeout rate with a 2.84 ERA but a 4.77 xFIP in 12.2 innings, he worked 5.2 in his debut and 7.0 in his second start, which is a good sign that the Guardians are not being precious with his arm in the early going. Williams pitched a gem in the second start, the seven innings included six strikeouts, just one walk, and only one hit. Of course, the Royals are not the Braves at the plate, the potential future ace will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance in this one and he is a somewhat difficult DFS option even at $6,300/$8,400. The DraftKings price renders Williams more playable than he looks on FanDuel, a few shares on either site are absolutely fine and even recommended on a six-game slate, but expectations have to be tempered for a kid making his third start against one of the best lineups we have seen in MLB in a long time. The elite Braves will most likely have their everyday version of the lineup on the field tonight, with Ronald Acuna Jr. in the leadoff role. Acuna has 21 home runs and 39 stolen bases, 20/40 used to be outrageous for a season’s production, we are just finishing the first half. Ozzie Albies justifiably costs $5,900/$3,600 at second base, his FanDuel price is arguably still too cheap for the best player at a premium position. Albies has 20 home runs and a .247 ISO while creating runs 13% better than average over 352 plate appearances. Austin Riley is up to 15 home runs with a .270/.335/.457 triple-slash and a .187 ISO, when his power gets fully re-engaged this team is going to go to yet another level of production. Matt Olson has had no issues with power output this season, the first baseman has mashed his way to 28 home runs and a .324 ISO so far, he is a strong buy even at a lofty $6,400/$4,400. Sean Murphy, Marcell Ozuna, Eddie Rosario, Orlando Arcia, and Michael Harris II would be a productive toolsy lineup on their own, that they hit 5-9 for the Braves on a daily basis is a sign of how strong this team is. Anyone or multiple players from this group can be rostered aggressively. Murphy is baseball’s best offensive catcher this season with 14 home runs and a 155 WRC+, Ozuna and Rosario have reminded the league of their talents with 30 combined home runs and WRC+ marks of 118 and 114. Arcia is our favorite multi-position utility man on FanDuel and a star-caliber shortstop on DraftKings for a fair price and low ownership on most slates, and Harris has been surging in his return to form. The Braves are always playable from 1-9, they once again rank first by collective fantasy point projections and first by home run potential.
The Guardians low-end lineup ranks last by collective fantasy point projections and last by home run potential. Cleveland is facing talented righty Bryce Elder, who has worked his way to a 2.44 ERA and 3.87 xFIP in 96 innings and 16 starts this season. Elder has a 20.5% strikeout rate, he is not a blow-’em away pitcher on the mound but he is excellent at pitching to contact and limiting power while keeping himself mostly out of trouble. The righty has allowed a 2.07% home run rate on 5.9% barrels and a 6.9-degree average launch angle this season, he was at 1.76% home runs on 34.4% hard hits with a 5.8% barrel rate and 8.8-degree launch angle last season in nine starts and 54 innings. Elder is on the board in the hunt for clean innings, a win, and a quality start bonus, his lack of strikeouts against the low-strikeout Guardians lineup is not a major concern on a short slate, there is potential in the Braves’ starter for just $8,100/$9,700. Cleveland’s badly underperforming lineup is typically the same at the top day by day, with Steven Kwan and Amed Rosario putting a 94 and 81 WRC+ marks in the top two spots. Kwan was a very productive player last year but he has been lousy for most of this season and sits at just .261/.339/.350, if he is not hitting for average, getting on base, and stealing bases, Kwan is a limited DFS option. Rosario was expected to go for double-digit home runs and stolen bases this season with ease, he currently sits at one home run and eight stolen bases, which has been the case seemingly for weeks now. The shortstop is very cheap at $3,800/$2,800, he has raw talent but things have been ugly this season. Jose Ramirez remains Cleveland’s lone star in the lineup, he has 13 home runs and nine stolen bases while creating runs 32% better than average this year for $5,700/$3,900. Ramirez has decent but not spectacular numbers, with no support in the rest of the lineup it would be fair to say that he is a bit pricey for current production levels, though we have a long track record of stardom with the third baseman to bolster confidence at price. Josh Naylor has easily been Cleveland’s second-best player, he has 10 home runs and has created runs 19% better than average, he and Ramirez are the only two players with their heads above water for run creation in this lineup. Josh Bell, Andres Gimenez, Will Brennan, Myles Straw, and Bo Naylor round out the projected lineup. Bell has been bad at .228/.319/.377 with only eight home runs and a 95 WRC+, Gimenez was another infielder expected to push 20/20 for the season, he has six home runs and 10 stolen bases with a 94 WRC+, Brennan and Straw are low-end mix-in options in the outfield, and Naylor is a mid-range power hitting catcher prospect who has one home run in 40 plate appearances in the Show this year.
Play: Braves bats/stacks, Bryce Elder, minor shares of Gavin Williams value is fine but unsafe
Update Notes:
Kansas City Royals (+205/3.42) @ Minnesota Twins (-227/5.20)
The Royals are facing Minnesota in a lopsided matchup that sees the day’s top starter take the mound for the home team. Joe Ryan is turning into a legitimate ace this season. The talented righty had a 3.55 ERA with a 4.35 xFIP and 25% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate in 147 innings and 27 starts last year, he has been better across the board this season. In 16 outings and 96.2 innings, Ryan has a 3.44 ERA with a 3.69 xFIP, a 0.97 WHIP, a 27.3% strikeout rate, and a 3.9% walk rate. His swinging-strike rate sits at an elite 13.4% with a 27.4% CSW% that could be stronger still. Ryan has allowed a 3.39% home run rate on 5.7% barrels, he has been very good at checking opposing upside throughout the year and should have a big opportunity for strikeouts in front of him tonight with the Royals’ free-swinging club at the plate. Kansas City’s projected lineup has a collective 24.6% strikeout rate, if we ignore light-hitting Nicky Lopez in the ninth spot with a 13.1% rate, the top eight hitters in the lineup jump to 26.4% strikeouts for the season. In the projected form, Ryan will face leadoff man Maikel Garcia, who has a .292/.340/.389 triple-slash while creating runs exactly at league average over 204 plate appearances this season. Garcia is non-threatening in the leadoff spot, he is striking out at a 22.1% clip and walking just 6.9% of the time, Ryan should open strong before facing Bobby Witt Jr. and Sal Perez, the team’s two best players. Witt has been good for counting stats but does not get on base consistently, his 12 home runs and 23 stolen bases would be a lot more valuable if he did not sit at a 90 WRC+ overall for the season with a .292 on-base percentage. Witt strikes out at a 20.3% clip and walks just 5.6% of the time. Perez has a 24% strikeout rate and just a 3.2% walk rate this season, last year he was at 23% strikeouts with a 3.8% walk rate, free passes are not Sal’s thing at the plate but home runs and premium contact certainly are. Perez is the biggest threat in the Kansas City lineup, he has a 10.80 in our home run model with a 10.3% barrel rate and 46.9% hard-hit rate amounting to 15 home runs and a .199 ISO so far this season. Nick Pratto is a quality left-handed bat with flaws, he strikes out far too much at 36.1% but also walks 9.9% of the time and has a .348 on-base percentage. Pratto has hit five home runs and created runs eight percent above average in his 233 plate appearances. Edward Olivares has moderate power and speed and he leads the team with just a 16.9% strikeout rate this season. MJ Melendez is at 29.5% strikeouts but at least draws walks at a 10.3% clip, his six home runs, and .128 ISO are mystifying when combined with an 11.6% barrel rate and 50.5% hard-hit rate. Drew Waters, Kyle Isbel, and Lopez are a weak bottom third, this matchup favors Ryan strongly.
The Twins will be taking on Austin Cox, a 26-year-old left-handed non-prospect who had a few good innings out of the bullpen to start the season. Cox went 12.2 scoreless innings in six appearances before making a 3.2-inning start against Cleveland last week. The lefty coughed up four earned runs on four hits, including a home run, while striking out just two and walking four, which earns you another start when you pitch for Kansas City. The lefty is a target on the mound, the Twins are pulling in strong projections and look like a good option to support their excellent starting pitcher with enough runs to win the ballgame. Carlos Correa has 11 home runs and no regrets, at least according to his quotes about the free agency odyssey that saw him end up back where he began in his third signing in the same offseason. Correa has underperformed badly at the plate this year, but his power is intact and he is cheap for the struggles, making him a good DFS option off the top at shortstop for $4,500/$2,900. Donovan Solano has three home runs and a 114 WRC+ in 227 productive plate appearances, he is more of a correlated scorer than an individual contributor but he functions well in Twins stacks for just $2,500 at first base on either site. Byron Buxton is a cheap star in the outfield, he has 14 home runs but is slashing just .210/.305/.445 this season. His .235 ISO and 107 WRC+ are both fine, but the outfielder has been in and out of the lineup and up and down at the plate. Kyle Farmer costs just $2,400/$2,300 with eligibility at second and third base on DraftKings and second base with shortstop on FanDuel. Farmer is a sneaky-good option at those prices and with positional flexibility, he is not a star but he has four home runs this season in just 180 plate appearances and hit 14 last year and 16 the year before. Willi Castro is similar to Farmer in that he can provide under-the-radar production on the right night. Castro has five home runs and 15 stolen bases in just 203 plate appearances but does not hit for power regularly and sits five percent below the average for run creation on the season. Christian Vazquez, Jose Miranda, Michael A. Taylor, and Alex Kiriloff round out the projected lineup. Kirilloff may well hit higher against the weak lefty, he drops in same-handed matchups but this may not be the threat that other southpaws would represent and he would be a decent power option against bullpen righties. Vazquez and Miranda have done nothing at the plate this year, they have WRC+ marks of 66 and 64, Taylor at least has 10 home runs and 11 stolen bases, but his 82 WRC+ is uninspiring.
Play: Joe Ryan aggressively, Twins bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Angels (+162/3.47) @ San Diego Padres (-177/4.63)
The power-packed and heavily right-handed Angels lineup will be facing lefty Blake Snell in a compelling matchup that should demand shares on both sides. Snell is one of the top strikeout artists in the game, he has a 31.5% strikeout rate with a 14.7% swinging-strike rate and 29.8% CSW% on the season. He has also walked 11.6% and allowed a 9.8% barrel rate with 3.04% home runs. The southpaw has been working deep innings and has been in top form of late, he is on a four-game run of double-digit strikeouts with 12, 12, 11, and 10 against the Rockies (at Coors), Rays, Giants, and Pirates. There are plenty of strikeouts available for the lefty in the Angels lineup, he lands second on our pitching board for a ridiculous $8,600/$10,900 price discrepancy. FanDuel’s price is correct, the price on DraftKings makes Snell one of the top priorities on the slate, he will be extremely popular at that price but he would have a strong probability of posting an almost mandatory fantasy score going into action. The Angels are projected to have Taylor Ward in his typical spot atop the lineup against a lefty. Ward has nine home runs while slashing .240/.314/.373 with a 90 WRC+ this season. The right-handed slugger has power but is a very inconsistent player at the plate, his premium position in the lineup ahead of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani is what we are buying for $4,300/$2,700, any individual production is a bonus. Trout and Ohtani are stars who sell themselves. Trout has 18 home runs with a .233 ISO while creating runs 36% better than average in what seems to be universally regarded as a lousy season. Ohtani has 31 home runs and seemingly leads baseball in everything. Anthony Rendon has been good for correlated scoring and on-base acumen this season but his power stroke has largely abandoned him, he is fairly priced and playable in the heart of the lineup at $3,300/$2,800. Hunter Renfroe has 14 home runs and a big right-handed bat that now offers multi-position eligibility at first base on DraftKings, he is exclusively an outfielder on FanDuel but is a good option on both sites at $4,600/$2,900. Eduardo Escobar hit 48 home runs combined in 2021 and 2022, he has switch-hitting power appeal late in the lineup. Luis Rengifo and Chad Wallach are both playable in small doses, they can both put bat on ball well and hit one over the fence from time to time, this does not apply to David Fletcher in the ninth spot.
The loaded but top-heavy Padres will take on righty Jaime Barria who projects in the middle of our pitching board for just $5,500/$6,300. Barria has pitched in a hybrid role this season but will be making his sixth standard start of the season. He has an upside to five innings, a total he has reached twice this year, but not much more on most nights. Barria has a 19.6% strikeout rate with a 4.56 xFIP but a 2.92 ERA which is a deceptive mark on the surface. He has been good at limiting hard hits at just 29.5% with an 85.9 mph average exit velocity, but he has still managed to cough up a 3.43% home run rate in his 49.1 blended innings. Barria has never been a high-strikeout pitcher, but he could post five good innings against the inconsistent Padres, he is a low-end mix-in option on the mound at a very cheap price. San Diego’s lineup is very much in play against this pitcher, there should be plenty of contact available, but the team will have to find the hard hits that Barria has kept off the board through much of this season. The Padres will also benefit from facing the Los Angeles bullpen for several innings later in the game. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the team with a 12.94 in our home run model, he is an excellent option in stacks at $6,200/$4,000 and still has shortstop eligibility on the blue site. Juan Soto is a superstar hitter, he is up to .277/.424/.502 with a .225 ISO and 15 home runs while creating runs at a team-leading 155 WRC+. Manny Machado is cheap at $5,200/$3,100 at third base, he has 11 home runs but has created runs 11% worse than average this year. Xander Bogaerts has a 102 WRC+ over his 334 plate appearances but has dipped to .252/.335/.378 with eight home runs and nine stolen bases that have not changed much in recent weeks. Bogaerts is a career .289/.355/.454 hitter, the turn is coming. Jake Cronenworth is a playable mix-in option who has disappointed at 86 WRC+ for the season, he was 10% better than average for runs with 17 home runs last year. Gary Sanchez has seven home runs in 111 plate appearances and has major power potential at his position when he connects, the catcher costs $3,900/$2,900. Matt Carpenter, Rougned Odor, and Trent Grisham are cheap low-end mix-in options from the bottom third.
Play: Blake Snell, Padres bats/stacks, Angels bats/stacks, minor shares of Barria SP2 value
Update Notes:
Seattle Mariners (+122/3.54) @ San Francisco Giants (-132/4.04)
Giants’ starter Logan Webb projects only in the middle of the pitching board today but is probably more appealing than that mark on the whole. The righty has been very good this season with a 3.43 ERA and 3.06 xFIP with a 24% strikeout rate in 110.1 innings over 17 starts. Webb works deep into games and has the upside for a few bonus strikeouts in this matchup against the Mariners. Webb may also benefit for DFS purposes from a few recent bumps, he was not good in his most recent start and coughed up a handful of runs in each of a few good-not-great outings prior to that. The righty is a good option, he has plenty of talent and typically checks home run upside by cutting launch angles to just 2.5 degrees on average this season. Webb costs $9,200/$10,100, he is more appealing if he is projected at low ownership around the industry, but he is definitely on the board on a relatively short slate. The Mariners can be played against Webb, but he is doing a good job of cutting into their projections for power and run creation on this slate. JP Crawford drops into the top of the lineup at shortstop, he has seven home runs and a 118 WRC+ and has stabilized to a .361 on-base percentage. Julio Rodriguez is up to 13 home runs and 19 stolen bases and continues to produce counting stats but has not boosted his triple-slash or ISO to last season’s levels. Rodriguez is affordable at $5,100/$3,400 given his massive ceiling on any given slate, but Webb is winning out in the matchup with the young star carrying just a 4.13 in our home run model. Ty France is good at putting the ball in play, he has a 111 WRC+ over 355 plate appearances and could be the example for how this team should approach Webb. Teoscar Hernandez, Cal Raleigh, and Eugenio Suarez have major power potential but also a significant downside for strikeouts, they sit at 32.5%, 25.7%, and 28.2% strikeouts on the season, with Jarred Kelenic joining the bunch amid a long downturn and carrying a 33% strikeout rate. Mike Ford has been a relatively easy out at the bottom of the lineup, he has six home runs in 65 plate appearances on the left side but is slashing .217/.262/.517 overall. Kolten Wong is a mix-in play who has underperformed all season.
The matchup between Bryan Woo and the Giants has the rookie hurler as our third-ranked starter tonight. Woo has been very good over five starts and 22.2 innings, he has a dazzling 33.3% strikeout rate and just a 6.3% walk rate with a 4.37 ERA and 3.07 xFIP that were inflated by an ugly debut against the loaded Rangers. Woo has been sharp in all four of his starts after that clunker but he is mispriced at just $6,600 on DraftKings, making him the top bargain SP2 option on the board. Woo has SP1 talent and that type of projection for a huge discount on the two-starter site, he is also a good buy at $9,200 on the FanDuel slate. Woo will take on a Giants lineup that has a 23.3% strikeout rate in its projected form, he has them capped at a 3.54-run implied team total in just the sixth start of his career, the rookie has been very good and belongs in a large portion of fantasy lineups tonight. San Francisco’s lineup is playable in a contrarian sense, particularly as an option to target what should be massive ownership given his price on DraftKings. The Giants lineup opens with LaMonte Wade Jr. who is very good at getting on base and setting the table while also providing power and run creation upside of his own. Wade has nine home runs, a .416 on-base percentage, and a 144 WRC+ over 300 plate appearances. The first baseman missed the weekend with lingering soreness, watch his status going into lock. Wilmer Flores is back in action, the productive infielder has eight home runs in 188 plate appearances, tying Joc Pederson’s output in 189. The power-hitting righty-lefty duo is good at the top of the lineup and both players are options from anywhere in the batting order if things look different in the confirmed version. JD Davis has 10 home runs but has cooled fairly significantly in that department after a hot start. His triple-slash and 125 WRC+ with a 48.9% hard-hit rate all are still appealing and he costs just $4,100/$2,900 at third base. Patrick Bailey has been good as a catcher option for cheap prices and fairly low ownership, Blake Sabol hits from the left side and offers a second catcher option while also slotting into the outfield on both sites. Thairo Estrada has mid-range power and good speed but is more useful at his prices from higher in the lineup. Estrada is still the most expensive Giants player on both sites at $5,400/$3,400. Luis Matos and Brandon Crawford are mix-in options from the eighth and ninth spots in small doses.
Play: Bryan Woo, Logan Webb, only limited shares of bats on either side
Update Notes:
Pittsburgh Pirates (138/3.87) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-164/4.83)
The final game of the night has the Pirates drawing just a 3.87-run implied team total but better fantasy point projections and upside in our Power Index than that would suggest in their matchup against limited righty Michael Grove. The starter has a 7.54 ERA and 4.47 xFIP with just a 20.5% strikeout rate over 37 innings in seven starts this season. Grove has allowed a 4.82% home run rate on 9.2% barrels but just 36.1% hard hits so far this season, in six starts and 29.1 innings last year he was at a 4.51% home run rate on more hard hits and higher exit velocity marks. Grove has been targetable with bats, he is not looking like a strong option on the mound even against the Pirates at $5,300/$5,800, but stranger things have happened than a weak pitcher beating this team for a good fantasy score. The Pirates lineup is our preferred side of the matchup, the projected version opens with lefty slugger Jack Suwinski who has a 13.07 to lead the team in our home run model. Suwinski has 17 on the season with a .271 ISO and a terrific 17.9% barrel rate with a 48.6% hard-hit rate. The outfielder’s $3,300/$2,900 pricing is inexplicable in this matchup, he is a terrific option at the plate tonight. Bryan Reynolds returned to action over the weekend, he is the team’s best player and he sits at a 10.03 in our home run model tonight. Reynolds has eight home runs and eight stolen bases and has created runs 18% better than average in 298 plate appearances this year. Andrew McCutchen has 10 home runs and nine stolen bases, most of which came fairly early in his return to form. The outfielder has not been as good since about mid-May, but he has a productive bat and is maintaining a 129 WRC+ over 305 plate appearances. McCutchen has a stout 44.4% hard-hit rate and remains a difficult out at the plate with a 19.7% strikeout rate and spectacular 15.4% walk rate. Carlos Santana caught fire over the last 10 days or so, he has nine home runs and is up to a 100 WRC+, we are not chasing recent production, this has been a very good power hitter over time and he is returning to form not playing in an exceptional manner, Santana is a good buy at $2,600/$3,400. Henry Davis is a potential star as a prospect, but he is even better when he has catcher eligibility, which is still not the case where the position is required. Davis has a home run and two stolen bases while creating runs 19% better than average in his first 51 plate appearances. Nick Gonzales has two home runs in 30 plate appearances and costs the minimum at second base or shortstop on DraftKings, he is still absent from the FanDuel slate. Tucupita Marcano, Jared Triolo, and Austin Hedges are the final third, they are all very cheap as mix-and-match options at best.
The Dodgers are facing righty Mitch Keller who has normalized somewhat in recent outings after a very strong start to the season. Keller has talent and has pitched to a 27.3% strikeout rate with a 3.34 ERA and 3.37 xFIP in 105 innings over 17 starts this season, but numbers have been declining since mid-May. Keller has not made any disastrous starts, but he has a few games with four or more runs allowed in recent weeks and his strikeout totals have dipped over the same stretch. Against the low-strikeout excellent Dodgers lineup Keller could be a bit of a trap play at $8,800/$10,400, he projects in the lower third of the board and the FanDuel price is problematic while the DraftKings cost should lead to popularity. Keller has more than enough talent to post a slate-winning score, he is absolutely on the board and should be utilized, but we prefer the Dodgers bats if forced to take a side in the matchup. Los Angeles is carrying a 4.83-run implied team total and they have a 21% strikeout rate with most of their stars in the mid-teens for the season. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith have an average strikeout rate of 15.7% across their collective 1,014 plate appearances this season, they are a spectacular trio to lead off the lineup. Betts has 22 home runs and seems to hit one on a daily basis of late. Freeman has 14 home runs and 11 stolen bases which is a dynamite total that pads his stats as one of the best first basemen in the game. Smith is a leading option at catcher and the only true rival to Sean Murphy’s production with a 145 WRC+ and 12 home runs in 265 plate appearances. Max Muncy has 18 home runs in 272 tries this year with a .264 ISO and 110 WRC+, JD Martinez has mashed his way to 19 homers and a .304 ISO with a 53% hard-hit rate and 17.7% barrels. David Peralta, Jason Heyward, Miguel Vargas, and James Outman are all playable options with at least mid-range power from late in the lineup, depending on the confirmed form. Any of the options are playable at their positions and pricing, Miguel Rojas has been fairly lousy all year, he has a 52 WRC+ and .051 ISO but will likely slot in ninth.
Play: Dodgers bats/stacks, Pirates bats/stacks, Mitch Keller as a lower-mid priority
Update Notes:
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