Wow. There’s no other word for last night’s ridiculous outpouring of runs across MLB. Among other noteworthy scoring blurbs, the most interesting we saw was that for the first time since the late 1800s, four games featured both teams scoring more than 10 runs. There were major rewards for some of our plays and major disappointments in others, the slate could have been easily won with the correct combination of hitters and a zero in the pitching spot given the outrageous performances by numerous hitters, and results were all over the map. The Wednesday evening eight-game main slate looks loaded with offense and limited pitching options as well, but it should be a much more normalized affair than the wild Tuesday night action. The pitching board is somewhat top-heavy with a steep decline in talent as the list heads toward the mid-board and a nigh unplayable bottom end. Embracing some risk on the mound and getting away from the pricey highly popular pitchers is a good way to differentiate a lineup while picking up the bonus of being able to access hitting combinations that are not otherwise available, which should be the key to success on this slate once again.
Don’t miss our Suggested Stacks feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
Join us at 4:15 ET for a rundown on today’s slate:
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 7/19/23
New York Yankees (-138/4.63) @ Los Angeles Angels (+127/3.97)
The Yankees lead the day in our home run model but land just in the lower-middle portion of the board for overall fantasy point projections against righty Chase Silseth, who will be making his second start of the season for the Angels. Silseth has thrown 18.2 combined innings between his lone start and bullpen appearances, he has a 17.9% strikeout rate with a 3.57% home run rate on 42.9% hard hits and is carrying a 5.30 ERA with a 4.97 xFIP. The 23-year-old has made nine starts and thrown 42 innings in AAA this season, he has been performing better at that level with a 2.79 ERA and 4.15 xFIP to go with a good 26.8% strikeout rate, but the 11th-round pick is not among top prospects. Silseth looks somewhat targetable for power potential at worst, but the Yankees’ unreliable offense has been shut down by pitchers of all types this season. Oswald Peraza costs $3,000/$2,300 and fills multiple positions on both sites, the highly regarded rookie infielder has made just 48 plate appearances in the Show this season, he has four stolen bases and has created runs eight percent below average to this point but is a playable part if he leads off once again. Giancarlo Stanton is our overall home run pick for the day. Stanton has 11 long balls and a .238 ISO with a 50.8% hard-hit rate and 15.3% barrel rate in his 186 plate appearances this season. The outfielder is cheap for his ceiling at $4,600/$3,000 but results have been very spotty this season. Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo are sturdy power bats who both land above the “magic number” in our home run model at 12.41 and 11.77 respectively. Torres is a good fit at second base and Rizzo is very cheap for his career track record at first base, both players have been above average for run creation in OK but not good seasons so far in 2023. Harrison Bader is an inconsistent contributor of moderate power and speed, he has a 10.76 in our home run model today. Anthony Volpe, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Jose Trevino round out the lineup, Volpe is the best selection from the group by far but he is a very inconsistent player.
The Angels draw left-handed ace Carlos Rodon in his third start of the season. Rodon worked 5.1 innings and struck out just two Cubs while allowing two runs on a home run and four hits in his season debut, he struck out six Rockies at Coors Field but coughed up one home run and four earned runs over 5.0 in his second outing. Rodon is a premium option on the mound, he had a 33.4% strikeout rate in 31 starts last year and a 34.6% mark in 24 starts and 132.2 innings in 2021. Rodon costs $8,500/$7,500 on this slate with a top-four projection on the pitching board on a short day, he should be excessively popular on both sites and is worth an investment of shares and salary. The Angels have several strong right-handed power bats and the looming presence of Shohei Ohtani, the matchup is not entirely safe for Rodon, but he has the talent to get through six while reaching both bonuses and racking up some strikeouts in this spot. Zach Neto leads off ahead of Ohtani, he has a good hit tool but is still growing at the MLB level, Neto has a 107 WRC+ over 224 plate appearances and correlates well with the superstar behind him. Ohtani has 35 home runs and a .373 ISO, these numbers just continue going up, he is playable on any slate in any matchup. Taylor Ward is cheap at $3,800/$2,900 with his power-hitting upside, he is very inconsistent at the plate, his 10 home runs and .141 ISO are uninspiring and well behind the pace from last year’s 23 home runs and .192 ISO. Mickey Moniak hit his 11th home run last night, reaching the mark in just 160 plate appearances, the lefty may or may not be in the lineup tonight, but he is worthwhile if he plays, even with a southpaw on the mound. Eduardo Escobar is cheap at $2,700/$2,500 with multi-position eligibility across sites, Hunter Renfroe has eligibility at first base in addition to his outfield positioning on DraftKings and comes cheap for his power potential, and the lineup closes with Luis Rengifo, Chad Wallach, and Michael Stefanic.
Play: Carlos Rodon, Yankees bats/stacks as a mid-level option/value play
Update Notes:
San Diego Padres (+107/4.42) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-116/4.68)
The Padres land second by collective fantasy point projections in a matchup against Jose Berrios, a capable but roughly league-average right-handed starter who has reached fairly high highs and very low lows in performances throughout his career. Berrios has a 22.8% strikeout rate with a 3.41 ERA and 3.94 xFIP with a 6.5% walk rate and a 1.16 WHIP in what has been a mostly good season. He has avoided major home run problems this year, which has been a flaw in seasons past, and has a 2.82% home run rate with a 34.7% hard-hit rate and 8.4% barrels this season. Berrios costs $8,200/$9,800, he is projected into the middle of the pitching board and serves as the last somewhat realistic name for a ceiling score, everyone who ranks below him in our pitching model is a much bigger dart throw for quality. Berrios is playable on both sites but he is not a safe option, his pricing on FanDuel is misaligned with utilizing him as a value play but he is a helpful piece at the discounted DraftKings cost. The Padres lineup should open with productive infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who has 11 home runs and 17 stolen bases with a .261/.349/.415 triple-slash and a 114 WRC+ in his best season so far in the Show. Kim leads into the four-man star unit of Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts, forming a playable straight-line stack through the top five in the lineup if one is so inclined and has the salary to reach that combination of hitters. Machado and Bogaerts still remain somewhat cheap for their talent despite both producing ahead of the league average for run creation. Tatis and Soto are stars at the plate, they both have 17 home runs on the season, Tatis has created runs 35% better than average and Soto is 50% ahead of the curve. Jake Cronenworth hits fifth, he has had a disappointing year at the plate but he comes cheap at $3,800/$2,700 at first base on DraftKings and with eligibility at second base added on the blue site. Cronenworth created runs 10% better than average last year and 16% ahead the year before but sits at just an 87 WRC+ mark this season. Gary Sanchez has a 7.78 in our home run model with any-given-slate upside for power as a cheap catcher, Matt Carpenter is not having a good year, Trent Grisham is the better of the two lefties at the bottom of the lineup.
San Diego has veteran righty Yu Darvish on the mound to face the Blue Jays, he projects onto a tight second tier of starters in our pitching model, joining Rodon and Charlie Morton a few points below the top three options. Darvish has a 25.8% strikeout rate over 91 innings in 16 starts this season and has posted a 4.65 ERA with a 3.75 xFIP. The righty has limited barrels to just 6.5% with a 2.89% home run rate allowed. The righty has induced a 10.9% swinging-strike rate, an effective mark that is down about a half-point from last year and more than a full point from two years ago, but his decline has not been precipitous and he has a significant ceiling in the right spot. The Blue Jays are not an easy matchup, there are other options facing weaker opponents on this slate, but Darvish is unlikely to be popular given the opponent, even at an $8,000/$9,200 salary. Toronto bats are playable against Darvish, the team’s collective fantasy point projection ranks sixth on our stacks board but they fall to ninth in the home run model and are a somewhat pricey investment. George Springer is affordable at $5,000/$3,300, he has 13 home runs and 13 stolen bases on the season. Bo Bichette has an 8.06 in our home run model, he has a 47.1% hard-hit rate for the season while slashing .318/.346/.498 while creating runs 34% better than average to lead the team. Bichette is a star shortstop and one of the top options at his position on most slates. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits behind Brandon Belt in the lineup, Belt is a formerly terrific power hitter who has been more of a strong correlated scoring piece in the lineup this season, his .367 on-base percentage and 123 WRC+ have appeal when considered in conjunction with his lurking power potential from the left side. Guerrero has a 13.7% barrel rate and 55.5% hard-hit rate on the season and is priced down at $5,400/$3,500. Matt Chapman, Whit Merrifield, and Daulton Varsho are good options from 5-7 in the deep Toronto lineup, Chapman and Varsho both have light tower power and Merrifield can go deep or steal a base and provides a good correlated scoring option. Alejandro Kirk and Kevin Keirmaier round out the lineup, Kirk has three home runs in 234 plate appearances but hit 14 in 541 last year, Kiermaier is more of a defensive asset for the team but he can be mixed into small portions of Blue Jays stacks.
Play: Padres bats/stacks, Yu Darvish, Jose Berrios, Blue Jays bats/stacks in that order
Update Notes:
Chicago White Sox (+186/3.74) @ New York Mets (-205/5.38)
Veteran Justin Verlander has not inspired a ton of faith around the MLB DFS industry with his performances this season, the aging righty has a 3.72 ERA but a 4.55 xFIP and just a 20.2% strikeout rate in 75 innings and 13 starts this season. Verlander has not been all bad, he has allowed more than three earned runs only four times in his 13 outings, two of those were four-run performances and the other two were ugly six-run games. The lack of strikeouts has been concerning, Verlander’s season high is an eight-strikeout game against the Blue Jays in early June, he has mostly worked in the four-to-six strikeout range and has not posted a dominant start for MLB DFS purposes this season. The righty has a good opportunity to post a decent game tonight against a White Sox active roster that sits 24th in baseball with a 91 WRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Chicago has a 23% strikeout rate with a .156 ISO in the split overall, the team has good right-handed power in a few spots but they have underwhelmed all season on the whole. Verlander ranks as the third man in the top three in our pitching model in this matchup. Chicago’s projected lineup opens in typical form with Andrew Benintendi. The slap-hitting lefty has climbed to a 104 WRC+ with productive games in recent weeks, his triple-slash is good at .292/.358/.380 and he stole his 10th base of the season. The outfielder has normalized to OK production, he is a capable correlated scoring play in the outfield for $3,100/$2,800 as the season continues. Tim Anderson is at 51 WRC+ and hopefully trending upward, the star shortstop has had an awful season to this point but he is a major talent for mid-range power, speed, and an excellent hit tool when things are normal. Anderson has a long way to go, he is sitting at .234/.272/.275 with a .041 ISO and zero home runs on the season but is very cheap at $3,900/$2,600 at shortstop. Luis Robert Jr. has a 15.1% barrel rate and 27 home runs on the season, he costs full freight at this point with a $6,000/$4,000 price tag, but he is a fixture in stacks of White Sox. The matchup against Verlander is not a priority target for stacking, but Robert should be a part of most builds that do select this team. Andrew Vaughn has 12 home runs with a .244/.316/.422 triple-slash and a 104 WRC+ in a productive year, the first baseman is cheap for $3,600/$2,900 in a bad spot. Yasmani Grandal is a playable catcher, Jake Burger has hit for significant power as an inexpensive third baseman for DFS this season, and Gavin Sheets offers a bit of pop from the left side for just $2,200/$2,400. Rookie Oscar Colas has a theoretical power bat in the outfield for cheap prices but it has not come through frequently in the Show, and Zach Remillard rounds out the lineup.
New York is facing righty Touki Toussaint who checks in at $6,900/$6,400 with a 21.6% strikeout rate over 24 innings in three starts this season. Toussaint has surprised this season, most recently with a 5.1 inning bulk relief appearance in which he struck out four but walked four and allowed a run on three hits to 23 Braves hitters. Toussaint faced the Cardinals and struck out five while allowing two runs on five hits in a traditional start in the outing prior to that, he has a 3.38 ERA but a 4.75 xFIP in the tiny sample. The righty has been limited throughout his career, he made only two starts and threw 25.1 innings last season, posting a 24.1% strikeout rate and 4.62 ERA with a 4.78 xFIP in another insignificant sample. In a bit more of a return over 10 starts and 50 innings in 2021, Toussaint allowed a 5.09% home run rate on 48.6% hard hits with a 22.2% strikeout rate and 4.59 xFIP. The righty is an unlikely candidate to continue his run of decent performances, his walk rate sits at 17.6% this season for one thing, and he has yet to cough up power, there is a major outburst coming against Toussaint, it may not be the Mets that get to him but it is coming soon. New York can be relied upon to put the ball in play and keep strikeouts reasonably in check, they have a lineup filled with players in the low 20% strikeout range, with a collective 21.8% for the projected lineup. Brandon Nimmo is a strong leadoff option, he has a 9.42 in our home run model tonight and 14 on the season and he gets on base at a .360 clip. Tommy Pham has nine home runs and 11 steals with a 132 WRC+ in a great bounce-back season, he still costs just $3,200/$2,800 in the Mets outfield from the second spot in the everyday lineup. Francisco Lindor has 19 home runs and 13 stolen bases with a 116 WRC+ and a .232 ISO but costs just $4,700/$3,600, he is a terrific buy on the DraftKings slate. Pete Alonso has struggled badly since his return from injury but this is a premium get-right spot, the slugger has 26 home runs and leads the day with an 18.50 in our home run model for $4,900/$3,600 at first base. Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte, and Daniel Vogelbach are playable veterans with a mix of hit tools, power, and speed across the three-man unit, but none of them is an ideal option at the plate. They should be mixed and matched with the team’s highly capable top four as well as the premium rookies who follow. Francisco Alvarez had another two home run game and now has 19 on the season, the rookie catcher has been turning into a star, he has a .292 ISO and 128 WRC+ in 238 plate appearances and costs just $3,600 where his position is mandatory. Alvarez is playable on FanDuel for $2,800 as well, he is a good option to differentiate lineups when used in conjunction with Alonso at first base. Brett Baty has a strong 46.5% hard-hit rate on the season and is always inexpensive and under-utilized.
Play: Mets bats/stacks, Justin Verlander
Update Notes:
San Francisco Giants (-105/5.32) @ Cincinnati Reds (-103/5.29)
The contest in Cincinnati has a slate-leading 10.5-run implied total with both teams landing around 5.3 implied runs in what is essentially a pick’em. The Giants will be facing Graham Ashcraft who has a 5.95 ERA with a 4.82 xFIP and 15.9% strikeout rate over 87.2 innings in 17 starts this season. Ashcraft was similarly low-end in 19 starts and 105 innings last season, he is a target for bats even at $5,800/$6,600. The Reds lineup draws Ross Stripling, who has made eight starts and thrown 45.2 innings this season. Stripling has a 6.11 ERA but a 3.90 xFIP and a 20.2% strikeout rate with just a 5.6% walk rate, but he has allowed 11.6% barrels and a 6.06% home run rate in the small sample. Stripling made 24 starts last year and had a 20.7% strikeout rate and 3.01 ERA with a 3.67 xFIP while limiting home runs to just 2.24% despite allowing 9.2% barrels. The righty is not a good option in this spot but he would be the “gun to your head” choice between these two pitchers at $6,000/$5,800.
Joc Pederson is slated to climb to the leadoff spot with LaMonte Wade Jr. listed as day-to-day after leaving last night’s game with cramping in his legs. Pederson is a lefty masher who has eight home runs with a .186 ISO in 223 plate appearances this year but blasted 23 long balls with a .247 ISO in 433 opportunities last season. Wade would be a very good option if he plays and Pederson would slide down the lineup to a good run creation spot. Michael Conforto has 13 home runs in 323 plate appearances, the lefty outfielder is slashing .243/.334/.414 with a 106 WRC+ after missing all of last year and he remains inexpensive on both sites. Wilmer Flores went deep for the 11th time this season in last night’s game, he has a 134 WRC+ in 224 plate appearances to lead the Giants’ projected lineup. Mike Yastrzemski slots in for $3,000/$2,900 in the outfield, he also has 11 home runs this season and he makes excellent contact with a 48.1% hard-hit rate and 10.6% barrels. Patrick Bailey has been good as an inexpensive catcher option, JD Davis is a productive power-hitting third baseman for a fair price, he has 11 home runs and a 115 WRC+ in 343 plate appearances, and Blake Sabol has hit 10 long balls as a cheap low-owned second catcher in the lineup. Brett Wisely and Casey Schmitt close things out for the projected Giants batting order. The Reds side features Elly De La Cruz in the leadoff spot, he has 17 stolen bases and a 104 WRC+ over 156 plate appearances. TJ Friedl does not hit for power but he has been good at getting on base and swiping bags this year, his six long balls are a surprise given just a 1.4% barrel rate and 24.2% hard hits. Matt McLain makes up the power gap, he has eight homers and is slashing .302/.367/.513 in his first 256 opportunities in the Show. Jake Fraley, Jonathan India, and Joey Votto are a good core for power with Votto being the only member of the group who does not also add speed to the mix for DFS purposes. Fraley has 13 home runs and 16 stolen bases, India is at 14/12, and Votto has eight home runs in 86 plate appearances. Christian Encarnacion-Strand hit his first home run in a pinch-hitting plate appearance last night, he had 20 and a premium triple-slash in AAA prior to his promotion and is another excellent young player in this lineup. Tyler Stephenson and Will Benson round out the lineup as playable parts.
Play: bats bats bats
Update Notes:
Arizona Diamondbacks (+199/4.06) @ Atlanta Braves (-220/6.07)
This game exploded for run-scoring and MLB DFS points last night and has a chance to do the same this evening. The contest in Atlanta has a 10-run total with the Braves heavily favored and pulling a 6.07-run implied total that leads the entire slate. Atlanta’s ridiculous offense will be at work in support of veteran righty Charlie Morton who will be on the bump for $9,100/$10,300 against the frisky low-strikeout Diamondbacks. Morton has been his typical mostly reliable self on the mound this season, he has a 3.20 ERA and a 3.85 xFIP with a 25.7% strikeout rate and a 12.6% swinging-strike rate with a 31% CSW%. The veteran righty has allowed a mere 2.24% home runs in 104 innings over 18 starts and has the depth to pitch to both bonuses where relevant. Morton is a good option on this slate, he sits second on the second tier of our pitching projections between Rodon and Darvish. The Diamondbacks are not a great target for pitchers, as evidenced by the walloping they put on talented Bryce Elder in 2.2 innings last night followed by an explosion against the bullpen. Arizona has just a 4.06-run implied total but they are not unplayable against Morton, the team ranks fourth by collective fantasy point projections today. Geraldo Perdomo checks in with a .278/.387/.414 triple-slash with a 121 WRC+ over 290 plate appearances and has struck out at just a 15.5% clip, he is a good leadoff option who gets on base and puts the ball in play. Ketel Marte has 15 home runs and a .209 ISO with a 130 WRC as one of the best second basemen in the game, he is affordable at $5,300/$3,500. Corbin Carroll has a 41.6% hard-hit rate and 8.6% barrel rate that do not scream “18 home runs in 367 plate appearances with a .252 ISO” but that is what he has provided to this point in the season. The rookie-turned-star outfielder is slashing .286/.362/.538 while creating runs 40% better than average in an outstanding season. Christian Walker hit his 20th home run of the saseon last night, the low-strikeout first baseman is a very good power bat who is an underrated hitter overall. Walker is slashing .262/.333/.515 with a 123 WRC+ and a .253 ISO and strikes out just 17.3% of the time. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has 15 home runs and a .218 ISO and is equally good at limiting whiffs. Gurriel has a 47.1% hard-hit rate for the season, he is outpaced by veteran third baseman Evan Longoria’s team-leading 56.7% mark in the category. Longoria also leads the way with a 13.4% barrel rate, he has 11 home runs in just 163 plate appearances this year. Jake McCarthy, Gabriel Moreno, and Alek Thomas round out the lineup as playable mix-in options. McCarthy has 20 stolen bases, Moreno is a playable catcher slashing .270/.314/.358, and Thomas has five home runs and five steals in 194 chances.
The Braves everyday lineup is slated to face Ryne Nelson, who has a 4.98 ERA and 5.03 xFIP with a limited 15.8% strikeout rate. Nelson is a rookie, he has allowed a 3.26% home run rate with 91.2 mph of exit velocity on average and a 10.2% barrel rate, he is a non-entity for DFS purposes at $6,700/$6,800 in the worst matchup in baseball. Ronald Acuna Jr. has 44 stolen bases with a 168 WRC+ and does everything well on a baseball diamond. Acuna has a 55.4% hard-hit rate and 15.7% barrel rate for the year with 23 home runs in a potentially historic season. Ozzie Albies has 22 home runs and a .249 ISO as a $6,100/$3,900 option at second base, Austin Riley hit his 17th and 18th homers as our pick in yesterday’s contest and will be looking to keep rolling with an 8.42 in our home run model today, and Matt Olson has the power of ten men at the plate. Olson has 30 home runs on the season with a .312 ISO and a 19% barrel rate to go with 56.5% hard hits. The first baseman is a star and he costs $6,200/$4,300 as another expensive option in a difficult-to-reach stack. Sean Murphy is priced up to $5,900/$4,100 at catcher, he is playable on both sites as a significant source of power, the backstop has 17 long balls and a .282 ISO this year. Marcell Ozuna and Michael Harris II come next, with Eddie Rosario still projected out of the lineup with an injury. Ozuna has 17 home runs this season, Harris has nine in 265 plate appearances with 12 stolen bases and a 97 WRC+. Orlando Arcia was an All-Star this season, he is very inexpensive at shortstop late in the lineup to help with the pricing of the rest of this squad. The projected lineup also includes Forrest Wall, who costs $2,000 in the outfield and would be a crucial piece of value if he plays. Wall is a hit tool and speed player who will be making his MLB debut more than halfway to his 28th birthday, he is not a premium prospect by a longshot, but his price is a major asset if he helps turn the lineup over tonight.
Play: Braves bats/stacks aggressively, Charlie Morton, Diamondbacks bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Washington Nationals (+145/4.26) @ Chicago Cubs (-158/5.35)
Right-handed veteran Kyle Hendricks is looking like a playable option on this slate. Hendricks ranks in the mid-board alongside Kenta Maeda and Jose Berrios and easily has the best matchup of the three starters. The righty costs $7,200/$8,200 against the Nationals and, while there may not be a major ceiling for strikeouts in play on either side of that equation, he could work six clean innings realistically and provide a good key to accessing the top of the standings with major firepower at the plate. Hendricks has a 3.57 ERA but a 4.68 xFIP with a 15.6% strikeout rate in 58 innings and 10 starts this season. The soft-tosser is not a big strikeout option in any situation but he does not pitch his way into trouble with just a 4.2% walk rate and a 1.09 WHIP. Against the Nationals, there is potential for the starter at his prices, he is on the board on both sites. CJ Abrams has a 91 WRC+ with eight home runs and 17 stolen bases but a .299 on-base percentage in the leadoff spot for Washington. Lane Thomas has 15 home runs and eight stolen bases with a .195 ISO and 122 WRC+ in a very good season. Jeimer Canedlario has been the team’s other productive hitter, he has a 118 WRC+ and 14 long balls this season but just a seven percent barrel rate and 37.9% hard-hit rate. Joey Meneses has been OK with his hit tool but weak for power this season, Keibert Ruiz has been the opposite, and Dominic Smith has been mostly inept. Corey Dickerson, Luis Garcia, and Alex Call round out the l0w-end lineup that ranks 10th on our board by both projections and home run potential.
The Cubs went off in a big way last night and could be primed to provide another big game in today’s contest. Chicago is carrying a strong 5.35-run implied total in Vegas in a matchup against Trevor Williams, a limited righty who costs $6,500/$7,000 and does not look like a good MLB DFS play today. Williams ranks in the bottom half of the board and has a 4.42 ERA with a 4.90 xFIP while striking out 17.7% in 19 starts and 93.2 innings. The righty has allowed a 4.61% home run rate on 10.5% barrels this season, he is a target for Cubs bats on the mound. Mike Tauchman is back in the leadoff spot in the projected lineup, he has a .360 on-base mark in 179 plate appearances with a 101 WRC+ but is not overly suited to playing in the Majors. Nico Hoerner has a 91 WRC+ with 21 stolen bases from the second spot in the lineup for a fair $4,600/$3,400 with eligibility at second base and shortstop on both sites. Christopher Morel climbs to the third spot in the lineup, he has 15 home runs with a .281 ISO and 134 WRC+ and fills two positions on DraftKings and three on FanDuel for cheap prices. Morel was a last-minute scratch in last night’s game with neck soreness and should be considered day-to-day but he is a good option if he is in the Cubs lineup. Ian Happ is a strong contributor for correlated scoring even with a bit of a dip in power output this season, he has a 115 WRC+ and gets on base at a .375 clip ahead of Cody Bellinger who has a dozen home runs and stolen bases in 266 plate appearances in a great comeback story. Bellinger leads the team with a 137 WRC+ and costs just $4,400/$3,900. Seiya Suzuki has eight home runs in 322 plate appearances and has created runs three percent ahead of the curve this season. Jared Young, Patrick Wisdom, and Tucker Barnhart close out the lineup, Wisdom is the best option by a wide margin, he has 17 home runs and a .293 ISO with a 109 WRC+ in just 234 plate appearances but is an inconsistent contributor.
Play: Cubs bats/stacks, Kyle Hendricks value
Update Notes:
Detroit Tigers (-141/4.65) @ Kansas City Royals (+130/3.94)
The Tigers are drawing a 4.65-run implied total in a matchup against veteran lefty Ryan Yarbrough, who will be making his fifth start of the season. Yarbrough has thrown 32.1 innings of fairly lousy ball this season, he has a 13.9% strikeout rate with a 5.29 ERA and 5.44 xFIP on the season but has been good at limiting premium contact with just a 5.8% barrel rate and a sparkling 28.8% hard-hit rate. Yarbrough worked six innings and faced 24 hitters in his return to action on July 9th, so he should be expected for a full start in this situation. The lefty allowed just one run on six hits with five strikeouts against the stingy Guardians in that game, if he finds that form he has potential tonight, but there does not seem to be much faith in his ceiling around the industry. Yarbrough projects in the lower portion of the board tonight for $5,500/$5,600 and would be a dart throw of an option but he is far more playable than, say, Ryne Nelson. Andy Ibanez is sustainably good against lefties in his career with a .181 ISO, he has six home runs but an 85 WRC+ overall this season but a 110 against southpaws. Matt Vierling has been fairly productive, in a Tigers sense anyway, this season, he has a 92 WRC+ against lefties however, most of his production has come against same-handed pitchers and he has been bad on this side of platoon splits though he has struck out at just an 11.9% clip. Riley Greene was out last night but is back in the projected lineup, he has a 126 WRC+ as the team’s best overall hitter. Spencer Torkelson has 14 home runs and a .184 ISO with a 101 WRC+ in a productive second season which represents a good step forward overall for the former first-overall pick. Torkelson is a fixture in Tigers stacks, he costs just $3,800/$2,900 at first base. Jake Rogers and Javier Baez have unreliable power in the middle of the lineup, and Miguel Cabrera, Eric Haase, and Zack Short round out the projected batting order as low-end options.
The Royals low-scoring high-strikeout approach may need a second look going into next season. The team has been lousy all year and they are highly targetable for strikeouts with pitchers who know how to go get them. Left-handed veteran Eduardo Rodriguez is definitely one of those pitchers, he has a 26.8% strikeout rate this season and was at 27.4% in his last full year in 2021. Outside of a strange 2022 that was marred by injury, absence, and underperformance, Rodriguez has been a mostly good starter throughout his career and is an above-average pitcher overall. The lefty has a 2.70 ERA and 3.48 xFIP over 76.2 innings and 13 starts this season. Rodriguez ranks third in the top three on our pitching board tonight, he looks like a high-quality option on both sites, his $9,500 DraftKings price should be counted as a bargain and he is worth the $10,600 on FanDuel. Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr., and MJ Melendez are the primary options when looking to Royals hitters in a bad spot tonight. Only Freddy Fermin and Dairon Blanco have above-average WRC+ marks for the season at 115 and 104, but those come in 121 and 56 plate appearances respectively and neither player is special at the plate. Witt leads the lineup with 16 home runs and 27 stolen bases, his 99 WRC+ is the highest mark among anyone on the squad with more than 150 plate appearances. Melendez makes premium contact but sees limited results, Garcia has been displaying a good hit tool but does not hit for power, he has speed in the leadoff spot and can correlate with the two home run hitters in low-end stacks. Matt Duffy, Nick Pratto, Edward Olivares, and Drew Waters fill out the middle of the lineup, they have combined for just 17 home runs in 792 plate appearances this season.
Play: Eduardo Rodriguez, minor shares of Tigers stacks, low-expectation Ryan Yarbrough value darts are OK
Update Notes:
Minnesota Twins (+129/3.49) @ Seattle Mariners (-141/4.10)
The premium pitching spot of the day once again comes in the late game in a matchup between two underperforming high-strikeout teams. The Twins are pushing a slate-leading projection in the direction of the Seattle starter once again, but this time we are not working with a rookie in his seventh MLB start, star veteran Luis Castillo should have little difficulty cutting through the Twins with his strikeout potential and talent on the mound. Castillo has a 26.9% strikeout rate with a fantastic 15.2% swinging-strike rate and a 29.7% CSW% while pitching to a 2.96 ERA and 3.71 xFIP in 112.1 innings and 19 starts this season. Castillo’s primary issue on the mound has been allowing a few home runs this season, but it has not cost him badly overall. The righty has a 3.74% home run rate on 90.1 mph of exit velocity and a 9.6% barrel rate, he is talented and productive enough that he falls into the bucket of “ace who allows a homer a game” like the Gerrit Coles of the world. Castillo is a major opportunity at just $9,300 on the DraftKings slate, his $10,500 price is easy to reach on the blue site, where he costs $100 less than Rodriguez in a similar matchup. As they reminded us last night, the Twins have a capable offense on the right day, they should have Byron Buxton in the lineup tonight as well, adding to their potential for at least some home run fireworks, but everyone in the projected lineup has a strikeout problem and the team has a 28.6% collective rate. Carlos Correa leads off, he has 12 homers and a .182 ISO and has pulled himself up to a 101 WRC+, Edouard Julien is slashing .308/.380/.548 with a .240 ISO and a team-leading 156 WRC+ in his rookie campaign. Julien is a highly-regarded prospect in the infield, his performance is over just 167 plate appearances but he should remain a productive option in stacks of Twins and he costs just $3,000/$2,800 at second base. Buxton slots in third in the projected batting order, the star outfielder has 15 home runs and a .214 ISO this year. Alex Kirilloff and Donovan Solano join hard-hitting Max Kepler and Ryan Jeffers in the 4-7 spots in the lineup, they are good options when stacking Twins but they are not priorities in a bad matchup, of the group Kepler’s left-handed power is the most appealing asset. Joey Gallo has major lefty power at the plate as well, he is a candidate to hit the odd home run off of Castillo tonight but is also easily likely to strike out three times against the righty. Michael A. Taylor closes out the lineup with 11 cheap home runs and 11 steals.
The Mariners are another high-strikeout bunch, though their collective rate is three points lower than their opponent for the projected lineup. Seattle will be facing veteran righty Kenta Maeda in his ninth start of the season. The 35-year-old righty disappointed his last time out, he struck out six Athletics hitters in just three innings but also walked four and allowed three runs on four hits in the short start. Maeda was brilliant against the Royals in the start prior to that, striking out nine while allowing just one run on a home run and three hits in 7.0 innings. He went 5.0 innings and delivered quality in both of his starts in late June after missing a large portion of the season after a late April injury. Maeda is a good veteran pitcher for just $7,800/$7,200 with upside from the middle of the board, he joins Kyle Hendricks and Berrios as playable options that should be far lower-owned than some of the jewels of the slate. Maeda has a 26.6% strikeout rate and 4.15 xFIP on the season, he struck out 24.9% in 106.1 innings in 2021 and has potential on the mound, but the hard-hitting Mariners are a threat to his success given the 50.5% hard-hit rate he has yielded with 92.9 mph of exit velocity this season. JP Crawford opens the batting order as a cheap playable shortstop with correlated scoring potential. Julio Rodriguez is projected to return to the lineup at a $4,800/$3,500 price tag that is easy to afford, he is the team’s most expensive bat so stacking Mariners behind their star is an easy build. Jarred Kelenic has 11 home runs and 12 stolen bases with a .189 ISO and 113 WRC+ but does not seem to have moved in his home run total in some time. Eugenio Suarez has 13 dingers in 397 plate appearances and remains cheap at $2,700/$2,900 at third base. Cal Raleigh has 12 home runs and Teoscar Hernandez has hit 15 with a .181 ISO and is back to a 100 WRC+ for the season. Ty France, Mike Ford, and Kolten Wong round out the projected Mariners lineup as playable parts. Seattle is our seventh-ranked team for home run potential on this slate but they are not a priority option.
Play: Luis Castillo, Kenta Maeda value, only moderate shares of either stack
Update Notes:
Follow Us on Twitter. Join us in Discord. Subscribe to the YouTube Channel.
