The Wednesday evening main slate features nine games on both DraftKings and FanDuel and only a handful of premium or even reliable pitchers. The top of the pitcher pool is clear cut, Shohei Ohtani and Kevin Gausman dominate projections and should be wildly popular on both sites. Beyond that pair, there are playable parts that have been up and down or are in questionable matchups, these include Yu Darvish, Max Fried, Logan Allen, Cristian Javier, Jack Flaherty, and Merrill Kelly. After that group of pitchers, there is not much to like about the targets that are available for bats, some of the very low-end starters are facing the top offenses in the game in a slate that should be somewhat clear-cut ahead of lock.
Don’t miss our Suggested Stacks feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
Join us at 4:15 ET for a rundown on today’s slate.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 8/9/23
Houston Astros (+127/4.44) @ Baltimore Orioles (-138/5.17)
- Orioles righty Jack Flaherty has a 4.28 ERA and 4.40 xFIP with a 22.4% strikeout rate and a 10.7% swinging-strike rate this season. The talented but oft-injured righty has been very good at limiting home run power with just a 1.96% home run rate on 35.6% hard hits, 6.3% barrels, and an 87.5 mph exit velocity, which is a sustained trait for the starter over time. After pitching very well and striking out eight Blue Jays over six one-run innings in his Orioles debut, Flaherty costs $7,200/$9,300 and is too cheap on DraftKings. The righty is a strong option for value on that site and he is a mid-board option by projection overall.
- Houston ranks eighth by collective fantasy point projections with a sixth-ranked mark for home run potential, Flaherty is not a “safe” option with the tough Astros lineup on the other side. Jose Altuve is a priority at second base when stacking Astros, he has eight home runs and 10 stolen bases with a 144 WRC+ in his 192 plate appearances. Alex Bregman is a $5,100/$3,200 option for power at third base, he has 18 home runs in 501 plate appearances this season. Yordan Alvarez is the team’s superstar, he has 21 home runs in just 288 opportunities after a mid-season injury cost him 200 opportunities. Alvarez is an all-world power hitter from the left side, he has a 19.3% barrel rate and 55.2% hard-hit rate with a 13.87 in our home run model for $6,000/$4,300. Kyle Tucker is another strong lefty with power and speed, he has 20 home runs and 24 stolen bases already this season and has created runs 43% better than average. Jose Abreu is at 75 WRC+ with 10 home runs on the board and he is cheap at first base. Chas McCormick has 15 homers, 12 stolen bases, a .247 ISO, and has created runs 46% better than average as an excellent option that remains cheap at $4,200/$3,500. Jon Singleton was featured in depth in this space yesterday, he has power but little else at the plate for $2,100/$2,000. Jeremy Pena and Martin Maldonado are mix-in values late in the lineup.
- Cristian Javier was a special pitcher for the past two seasons, he had a 33.2% strikeout rate with a 2.54 ERA and 3.53 xFIP over 148.2 innings and 25 starts last season and was a weapon for Houston in a hybrid role over 101.1 innings with a 30.7% strikeout rate and 3.55 ERA with a 4.35 xFIP in 2021. This season, Javier has dipped to just 22.8% strikeouts with a 4.39 ERA, an ugly 5.11 xFIP, and a shaky 3.62% home run rate on 10.7% barrels. The Orioles are carrying a 5.17 into the matchup against a pitcher who has some notable dips in velocity and spin in his arsenal. Javier still pulls in a respectable mid-board projection based on his excellent track record, at least some of the struggles are baked into his low $8,100/$8,600 price.
- Baltimore has a good lineup and a healthy run total but their average projections are not ranking strongly in the matchup against Javier. The lineup opens with premium catcher Adley Rutschman who hit his 15th home run and had another big game last night. Gunnar Henderson has a 9.40 in our home run model against Javier, the left-handed rookie has been terrific this season, he has 19 home runs and a 121 WRC+ over 406 plate appearances and still costs merely $4,900/$3,200. Anthony Santander is a switch-hitter with top-end power, he has 20 long balls to lead the team this season and sports a .220 ISO with a 120 WRC+ over 464 plate appearances. Ryan O’Hearn remains cheap at $2,900/$2,700 with eligibility at first base and in the outfield despite a .307/.344/.508 triple-slash with a .201 ISO, a 132 WRC+, and nine home runs in just 215 opportunities. O’Hearn was never this hitter while with Kansas City, the downturn is fully expected, but given his place in the projected lineup on the strong side of splits, O’Hearn is in play as long as he remains cheap. Ryan Mountcastle has massive right-handed power, he has 14 home runs in 336 plate appearances and leads the team with a 14.5% barrel rate. Adam Frazier, Austin Hays, Colton Cowser, and Jordan Westburg round out the lineup, they are all playable mix-in options at worst. Frazier and Hays are a pair of reliably productive veterans while Cowser is one of baseball’s top prospects overall and Westburg was not far behind prior to their promotions. Cowser has struggled over 70 plate appearances and is at .125/.286/.161 with zero home runs and one stolen base, but Westburg has been productive with a 118 WRC+ in his 107 plate appearances.
Play: Jack Flaherty particularly for DraftKings value pricing, Orioles bats/stacks, Cristian Javier, Astros bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Atlanta Braves (-266/6.00) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+238/3.63)
- Rookie hurler Quinn Priester has struggled over his first four MLB outings. The righty with the big curveball but questionable fastball has worked to an ugly 8.69 ERA and a 5.26 xFIP that is better but still bad. Priester has a limited 17% strikeout rate in his 19.2 innings and he has given up a 5.32% home run rate on 9.5% barrels and 42.9% hard hits with a particular focus on blasting his limited fastball. Priester is not an option against the Braves, who are carrying a six-run implied total into this matchup.
- The Braves’ collective fantasy point projection on our board was the highest number we have seen all season, from the team that has posted the most reliably outrageous fantasy scores all year. Atlanta is in an ideal matchup for a massive game, though we may be without Ronald Acuna Jr. at the top of the lineup after the star took a pitch on the elbow and came out of last night’s game. Acuna was x-rayed and things came back clean, but he may get the night off to let things get back to normal. If he is in the Braves lineup he should be in the majority of Braves stacks, he has 26 home runs and 53 stolen bases this year. Ozzie Albies has 26 homers with a 116 WRC+ as one of the game’s top second basemen, Austin Riley is a leading option at third base with 26 home runs and a 119 WRC+, and Matt Olson is the best first baseman not named Freddie Freeman with 39 homers, a .336 ISO, and a 155 WRC+ in 496 plate appearances. Sean Murphy should be back in the lineup after getting Tuesday night off, the backstop is a premium positional option behind the plate, he has 18 home runs with a .254 ISO and a 142 WRC+ in 331 plate appearances. Marcell Ozuna, Eddie Rosario, Orlando Arcia, and Michael Harris II could be a stack on their own, they are better collectively than the 1-4 options (though they would appear in a different order) atop many lineups around the league. Ozuna and Rosario have undeniable power at the plate with 23 and 16 home runs and ISOs of .232 and .207, and Arcia pairs with Harris as the best eight-nine duo in baseball. Arcia has 12 homers and a 122 WRC+ while Harris has 11 homers, 13 stolen bases, and a 112 WRC+. Stack Braves from 1-9 in any combination.
- Veteran southpaw Max Fried has made just six starts this season. The lefty worked six innings against the Cubs at Wrigley Field in his return to action last week, striking out eight while allowing just three hits and zero runs. Fried is a top-end option when he is healthy, he struck out 23.2% with a 2.48 ERA and 3.09 xFIP over 185.1 innings in 30 starts last season and he is adept at limiting power and home runs while keeping the ball on the ground. Fried had a 1.64% home run rate on four percent barrels and 7.6 degrees of launch last year and a 2.25% home run rate on 6.3% barrels the year before. Fried costs $9,400/$10,600 with expectations of full innings against a Pirates squad that has some talent up and down but checks in at just a 3.63-run implied total. Fried is a good option from the upper-middle of the projections board.
- The Pirates are a limited stack that has delivered more consistently of late, they rank just 14th by fantasy point projections but they are showing a quality sixth-rated mark for points-per-dollar value on DraftKings with a bit of potential. The matchup is not good, while he may not be an apex strikeout option, Fried is very good at limiting opposing offenses. Focus players in the Pirates lineup include Connor Joe, who is expected to lead off and is good against left-handed pitching and has a 109 WRC+ overall this season, Bryan Reynolds, who has 15 home runs and a 113 WRC+ for $4,400/$3,300 as a cheap star in the outfield, and Jack Suwinski who hits later in the lineup and has most of the team’s home run power. Veteran Andrew McCutchen is a good option for correlated scoring, he gets on base at a .380 clip with a 16.3% walk rate but he has not been hitting for power or stealing bases like he did over the season’s first two months to get to 10 of each. McCutchen still has a 117 WRC+ on the season and is a playable part ahead of rookie Henry Davis who slots in fourth in the projected lineup. Davis has five homers with three stolen bases in his first 170 plate appearances. Ke’Bryan Hayes delivered on the promises made by his excellent hard-hit rate and approach at the plate with a homer last night, he now has six on the season in 327 plate appearances. Hayes makes sturdy contact and should be a more reliable hitter over time, he is a good option when stacking Pirates at just $3,200/$2,600. Endy Rodriguez is a top prospect at the catcher position, he has two home runs in 61 plate appearances, Liover Peguero has hit three homers and stolen a base in his first 49 opportunities in the Show, and Alika Williams is very cheap and has the potential to contribute from the bottom of the lineup. The Pirates are a low-priority stack with some talented young players at cheap prices in a bad matchup for MLB DFS production.
Play: Braves bats/stacks aggressively, Max Fried from the upper-middle of the pitching board
Update Notes:
Kansas City Royals (+200/4.26) @ Boston Red Sox (-221/6.38)
- Right-hander Nick Pivetta has made nine full starts and thrown 92.1 innings between starting and bulk relief this season. He has a 29.1% strikeout rate with a 4.19 ERA and 3.97 xFIP while inducing an 11.8% swinging-strike rate and posting a 27.8% CSW%, but he has allowed a bit of premium contact with 3.90% home runs on 11.2% barrels and a 42.5% hard-hit rate. Pivetta was fairly good in a full start against the Mariners on July 31st, striking out 10 over 7.1 innings while allowing three runs and two home runs, his most recent outing was on August 5th in four innings of relief work that saw him strike out just two of 19 Blue Jays while allowing a home run and three earned runs. Over 47.1 innings as a full starter, Pivetta has a 5.89 ERA and 4.51 xFIP to the 2.40 ERA and 3.40 xFIP that he has in 45 innings of bulk relief work. His strikeout rate in the bulk relief role is a whopping 34.1% compared to just 24.9% as a full starter. There is a clear path to success for Pivetta against a limited Royals squad, but the team has a 4.26-run implied total that is a mid-board option and the pitcher has a few glaring flaws in his game. Pivetta ranks in the mid-board in our pitching projections in a plus matchup for $7,800/$8,500, the salary on both sites is low enough to offset any concerns and Pivetta is a good option around the industry with a ceiling to be a slate-winner on the right night.
- Kansas City’s lineup can produce minor outbursts of quality at times, but they are a truly limited bunch overall. Maikel Garcia has four home runs and 18 stolen bases with an OK triple-slash but just a 90 WRC+ in the leadoff role. Bobby Witt Jr. is a toolsy star with 20 home runs and 34 stolen bases as one of the top buys at the shortstop position, Witt is a priority in stacks of Royals and a playable one-off positionally. Michael Massey has infrequent left-handed power, he is up to 10 home runs on the season after a big Tuesday night but his ISO sits at just .153 and he has a 76 WRC+ over 300 plate appearances. Sal Perez is cheap for his power at the catcher position, he costs $4,200/$2,700 and has 17 homers in a down season. MJ Melendez hit his 10th home run last night, he makes terrific contact at the plate with a 12.3% barrel rate and 51.7% hard hits but sits at just 80 WRC+ for the season. Edward Olivares, Matt Beaty, Drew Waters, and Kyle Isbel are infrequent contributors. The first three in the group sit at 90, 94, and 92 WRC+ for the season while Isbel is all the way down at 65 over his 207 plate appearances.
- The Red Sox are a priority stack that leads the board overall by collective fantasy point projections and sits seventh for home run potential against Jordan Lyles. The veteran righty has made 21 starts and covered 118.1 innings with a 16.2% strikeout rate while pitching to a 6.24 ERA and 5.42 xFIP this season. Lyles is not an option on the pitching slate, he is a target for Red Sox bats given the runs, low strikeout totals, and a 4.55% home run rate on 10.1% barrels that he has yielded this season.
- Jarren Duran has eight home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 130 WRC+ over 333 plate appearances in a breakout season. The lefty leadoff man costs $4,100/$3,100 ahead of Masataka Yoshida who has created runs 27% better than average with 12 homers and eight stolen bases in his ledger, Trevor Story who made his return to action in last night’s game but went 0-4. Story has a 10.55 that sits second in our home run model in the Red Sox lineup tonight. Rafael Devers and Triston Casas have high-end home run potential in this matchup, Devers leads the team with a 13.92 in our home run model while Casas is our overall home run pick of the day at 9.59. As featured yesterday, Casas has been one of baseball’s very best power hitters with a massive OPS over the past month, he remains shockingly cheap at $3,900/$2,800 at first base. Lefty outfielder Alex Verdugo slots in for $3,800/$2,900 with eight home runs and a respectable .274/.348/.428 triple-slash and a 110 WRC+ this season. Luis Urias has a ton of sneaky power at second or third base on DraftKings with triple-position eligibility on FanDuel for $3,100/$2,200, and the lineup closes with mix-in options in Reese McGuire and Pablo Reyes.
Play: Red Sox bats/stacks aggressively, Nick Pivetta as a mid-level option, minor shares of Royals hedge bats
Update Notes:
Toronto Blue Jays (-161/4.52) @ Cleveland Guardians (+147/3.58)
- Lefty Logan Allen will look to complete the trifecta for the Guardians’ excellent young pitching staff after both his right-handed fellow rookies posted gems against the Blue Jays over the past two days. After the success of both Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee, the Blue Jays will get a look at the lefty who has a 22.9% strikeout rate with a 3.65 ERA and 4.13 xFIP while limiting home runs to just 2.70% on 8.7% barrels this season. Allen looks a lot like the two righties in his statistical output over his first 16 starts and 86.1 innings in the Show, he has been very good over his brief career to this point and any concerns around short starts from late June through mid-July have been eradicated with three straight starts of at least six innings and a five-inning outing prior to that stretch. The Blue Jays have a 110 WRC+ collectively with just a 20.2% strikeout rate and a .146 ISO against left-handed pitching this season, Allen has potential for $8,400/$8,700.
- Whit Merrifield is a quality option atop the Toronto lineup for $4,400/$2,900, he has 10 home runs and 21 stolen bases and correlates well with George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in this version of the lineup. Springer has 13 home runs and 14 steals with a 99 WRC+ in a down season overall, and Guerrero has not fully hit his stride despite excellent contact and an OK for most players stat line overall. He has a 116 WRC+ but we expect more from the superstar first baseman who lands cheap at $5,000/$3,200. Danny Jansen has a 12.57 to lead the team in our home run model, with Guerrero on his heels at 11.42 and rookie Davis Schneider carrying a 10.66 from later in the lineup. Jansen has 15 home runs in just 256 plate appearances as an affordable catcher. Alejandro Kirk is also in the projected lineup, he also has a bit of pop as the second catcher option in this lineup. Matt Chapman has obliterated baseballs when he has made contact, he has an 8.16 in our home run model with a 17.6% barrel rate and 57.9% hard-hit rate over 469 plate appearances. Schneider is cheap at $3,100/$2,900 at second base, he has two home runs and a 307 WRC+ over his first 19 plate appearances in the Show. Paul DeJong and Daulton Varsho are playable power options late in the lineup.
- Guardians bats are not a priority in this matchup, the team has been mostly bad throughout the season and they are facing buzzsaw righty Kevin Gausman who projects at the very top of our pitching board with a monster fantasy point total. Gausman has a 32.8% strikeout rate with a 2.59% home run rate, a 3.20 ERA, and a sparkling 2.91 xFIP on the season. For $10,800/$11,000, Gausman is simply one of the top right-handed power pitchers in the game and he is facing a pushover opponent, he is a top-priority pitcher who will no doubt be popular but should be worthwhile regardless, on the Wednesday slate.
- Steven Kwan has a .341 on-base percentage and has been sliding in the wrong direction for relevance from the top of the lineup, he sits at just 99 WRC+ after posting a 124 last season. Andres Gimenez has 10 homers and 18 stolen bases but a 90 WRC+, Jose Ramirez is the team’s star who has a 127 WRC+ with 18 homers and 16 stolen bases in a bit of low-for-him output, and Oscar Gonzalez has cheap power for $2,600/$2,100 in the outfield. Kole Calhoun and Brayan Rocchio have minor power in the heart of the lineup for $2,400/$2,000 and $2,300/$2,100, the Guardians are extremely cheap on both sites but the upside is very thin. Calhoun hit 12 home runs in 424 opportunities last year and he had five in 182 the season before. Will Brennan, Bo Naylor, and Myles Straw round out the very weak lineup as extremely low-priority bats.
Play: Kevin Gausman aggressively, Logan Allen, Blue Jays bats/stacks as a mid-level option
Update Notes:
Chicago Cubs (-101/4.51) @ New York Mets (-107/4.58)
- Mets lefty David Peterson has a 5.65 ERA but a much sharper 3.63 xFIP with a 23.7% strikeout rate but a 9.6% walk rate and 1.61 WHIP with 3.09% home runs allowed on 6.8% barrels in a mixed season over 12 starts and 65.1 innings that have also seen him relegated to the minors. Peterson has a good track record in his opportunities in the Show, he posted a 27.8% strikeout rate with a 3.83 ERA and 3.31 xFIP in 105.2 innings and 19 starts last year, for example. The lefty is not inept on the mound but he will be limited to only three or four innings and is not an option for MLB DFS in this start.
- Chicago’s sturdy lineup has excellent options for drawing walks and waiting out Peterson, they have a 4.51-run implied total as the visiting team and look like a viable mid-level stack on this slate. Nico Hoerner is back to $4,900/$3,500 with eight homers and 28 stolen bases and a 98 WRC+ this season. Dansby Swanson climbs the lineup against the lefty, the excellent shortstop has 17 home runs on the season and should approach his typical totals of around 25 before the end of the year. Swanson is cheap at $4,700/$3,200 for his upside. Ian Happ costs merely $3,700/$3,300 in the outfield, he has 13 homers and a 117 WRC+ this season. Cody Bellinger has a 6.4% barrel rate and just 31.1% hard hits but he has 17 home runs to tie for the team lead and he has been mostly outstanding all season. Yan Gomes is a good catcher with a bit of power, he has a 4.70 in our home run model tonight. Seiya Suzuki has had a disappointing season at just 96 WRC+ over 385 plate appearances, he has nine home runs and five stolen bases on the season but there is upside in his talent for $3,200/$2,700 against the lefty. Jeimer Candelario has 17 homers, seven stolen bases, and a 130 WRC+ on the year, he costs just $4,400/$3,300 at third base with first base added on DraftKings. Nick Madrigal and Miguel Amaya slot into the final two spots as mix-in values.
- Righty Kyle Hendricks has a 15.3% strikeout rate with a 3.98 ERA and 4.60 xFIP over 14 starts and 81.1 innings this season, he is a very low-end option for MLB DFS purposes at $6,600/$8,300, his FanDuel price is far too high but he could be considered a low-expectation SP2 value dart on DraftKings.
- The Mets are the focus in the matchup against Hendricks, they have a mid-level rating across the board on our stacks tool and they pop to fifth overall for home run expectations. Brandon Nimmo has an 8.34 in our home run model with 15 on the season and a 119 WRC+ as a great correlated scoring or individual option. Francisco Lindor has a 122 WRC+ with 22 homers and a 10.23 in the model, Jeff McNeil has no power and just a 2.19 in our home run model to drag down the team average, but he plays for correlation when he reaches first base three times in a game. Pete Alonso has a 15.61 as one of the top power bats overall today, he has 34 long balls with a .300 ISO on the season and costs just $5,500/$3,700 at first base. Daniel Vogelbach, DJ Stewart, and Rafael Ortega are playable left-handed hitters late in the lineup, while rookie sensation Francisco Alvarez has an 11.19 in our home run model and 21 on the board already this season. Jonathan Arauz rounds out the lineup as a mix-in for cheap prices in the infield.
Play: Mets bats/stacks, Cubs bats/stacks
Update Notes:
New York Yankees (-114/4.66) @ Chicago White Sox (+106/4.43)
- Right-handed veteran Mike Clevinger projects only one spot ahead of mostly struggling Luis Severino on the pitching board, neither starter has much appeal on this slate. Clevinger has a 3.72 ERA but a 5.54 xFIP and just an 18.5% strikeout rate while allowing 8.5% barrels and 3.19% home runs. Severino has been an absolute mess this season, he does not seem like he belongs on a Major League mound at this point. The formerly talented righty has a 7.74 ERA with a 5.13 xFIP, a 1.85 WHIP, 18.1% strikeouts, nine percent walks, and an atrocious 5.69% home run rate on 45.1% hard hits and 11.2% barrels. Both pitchers are targets for bats.
- The Yankees are one of the slate-leading teams by collective fantasy point projections, with superstar Aaron Judge giving a bit of a rising-tide effect to the lineup as a whole. Judge hits second behind Jake Bauers, who has been a reliably good option for New York with a 113 WRC+ over 207 plate appearances. Bauers has 11 home runs and two stolen bases, he strikes out far too much but can draw walks and provides a stout left-handed bat against Clevinger to open the lineup. Judge leads the day and is doubling-up the “magic number” in the home run model again at 20.60, he hit one out yesterday for his 21st of the season when he was carrying a mark above 23 in the model. Judge is an excellent option with a .413 on-base percentage and a 183 WRC+ on the season. Gleyber Torres has 18 homers and fills second base with quality for $4,500/$3,100, he has a 9.11 in our home run model and has created runs 15% better than average. Giancarlo Stanton is cheap for his massive ceiling for power, he has 17 home runs on the year in 262 plate appearances with a .250 ISO and 15.6% barrel rate. Stanton costs just $4,600/$3,000, his price on the blue site, along with that of Torres at just $3,100, is highly noteworthy when seeking quality values. Billy McKinney has a decent left-handed bat with a bit of pop, in a “I’m a sneaky quad-A type hitter getting a shot in a cut-down version of the New York lineup again tonight” sense anyway. McKinney has six homers in 123 plate appearances with a .213 ISO and 108 WRC+ so far in his 2023 campaign. DJ LeMahieu should be back in the lineup after a night off, he has eight home runs while slashing .240/.315/.373 with a 91 WRC+ overall but his July showed signs of improvement and his August has been good so far, putting him on the board for $3,100/$2,500, particularly with his triple-position eligibility on the blue site. Harrison Bader, Anthony Volpe, and Kyle Higashioka all have talent to hit infrequent home runs, the outfielder and the shortstop can both steal bases but don’t reach first enough, while Higashioka has the best overall contact profile in the group with a 47.3% hard-hit rate and 11.6% barrels.
- The White Sox slot in with a few good power hitters but limited options in many spots. Struggling Tim Anderson is projected in the leadoff role again after another night off last night, he has been entirely off all season with a 59 WRC+, one home run, and 11 stolen bases. Andrew Benintendi has a 93 WRC+ in a down season, the slap-hitting outfielder is slashing .276/.341/.358 with a .083 ISO. Luis Robert Jr. plays well against the power that Severino has been allowing, he has an 11.82 in our home run model with 31 on the season and a .293 ISO. Eloy Jimenez has hit 13 homers, he has an 8.44 in the home run model, Yoan Moncada slots in for cheap pricing at third base, and Andrew Vaughn has a .251/.317/.435 triple-slash, a .185 ISO, and a 106 WRC+ for just $3,400/$2,800 at first base. Vaughn is a compelling option against this struggling starter as well, he has a 9.8% barrel rate with a 47.4% hard-hit rate that should work well against the limited righty. Oscar Colas has believable left-handed power in the outfield late in the lineup, he hits behind Vaughn and ahead of limited Elvis Andrus, who has been bad most of the season and has just a 67 WRC+ this year. Carlos Perez slots into the projected catcher spot for $2,000/$2,000, he has five homers in 140 plate appearances this year but just a 90 WRC+ and a weak triple-slash.
Play: Yankees bats/stacks, White Sox bats/stacks
Update Notes:
San Francisco Giants (+125/3.75) @ Los Angeles Angels (-136/4.34)
- San Francisco has a 99 WRC+ with a 24.8% strikeout rate and a .164 ISO collectively for the active roster against right-handed pitching this season. The team is facing righty ace Shohei Ohtani who checks in for $11,300/$11,200 as the only pitcher to challenge Gausman for king of the hill by fantasy point projections today. Ohtani has a 31.8% strikeout rate with a 3.32 ERA and 3.52 xFIP as the best power hitter in baseball. The ridiculous two-way superstar has allowed a bit of power this year at 10% barrels and 3.58% home runs, but he yields only 86.5 mph of exit velocity overall and he has not been too hurt by his bulky 10.1% walk rate on the season. Ohtani is an elite option, the only downside is that he cannot be played as a hitter in stacks against the Giants’ opener-bulk relief pairing. San Francisco is rolling out Ryan Walker who is due to be followed by Tristan Beck, though lefty Sean Manaea is also mentioned as an option in some sources. None of the Giants pitchers are playable unless certainty about the bulk relief situation is provided, in which case Manaea would have his typical odd potential for strikeouts if he is the choice.
- The Giants are a very low-priority stack on this slate, they rank 12th by fantasy projections and 16th for home run potential against one of the best arms in the game, there are simply better spots. LaMonte Wade Jr. is a good leadoff hitter with a bit of lefty power and a .396 on-base percentage for $3,800/$2,800. Joc Pederson has 11 home runs in 280 plate appearances and is a thumper from the left side. Wilmer Flores has been one of baseball’s top players over the past month or so, he has 15 home runs and a .241 ISO with a 147 WRC+ in 289 plate appearances this season and is slashing .310/.367/.552. Michael Conforto is another source of cheap lefty pop in a terrible spot, he has 13 homers on the season, and JD Davis has 15 but has scuffled more of late and is also in a terrible same-handed matchup. Patrick Bailey, Thairo Estrada, Brandon Crawford, and Luis Matos round out the lineup, Estrada is the top option in the group as an everyday source of quality for mid-range power and speed, the others are mix-in options if one chooses to build many Giants stacks in a terrible spot.
- Luis Rengifo has 11 home runs and a league-average 100 WRC+ in the leadoff spot, Ohtani is not available as a DFS hitter but he will be in the lineup to potentially steal fantasy point production (or contribute to it) from hitters who follow including Brandon Drury, Mike Moustakas, CJ Cron, Mickey Moniak, and Hunter Renfroe, all of whom can provide power in a righty-lefty-righty-lefty-righty configuration. Drury has 15 homers in 328 plate appearances, Moustakas has 10 in 269 in a good return to form, Cron has 11 in 260 chances but just an 87 WRC+, Moniak has surprised with 12 and an excellent triple slash in 238 chances, and Renfroe has been limited with just 17 in his 440 opportunities. Matt Thaiss and Randal Grichuk have upside late in the lineup as well, Thaiss has seven homers with a 40.3% hard-hit rate and 10.7% barrel rate as a very cheap catcher and Grichuk is an excellent hitter to find in the ninth spot. The overall potential for this team is limited by the absence of Ohtani, but they have playable parts with a mid-range 4.34-run implied total in Vegas.
Play: Shohei Ohtani
Update Notes:
San Diego Padres (-145/4.68) @ Seattle Mariners (+134/3.91)
- The Padres were smoked by talented righty Logan Gilbert last night, they draw 2020 sixth overall pick Emerson Hancock in his MLB debut tonight. Hancock projects into the lower-middle portion of the pitching slate in our model with potential beyond that mark for just $4,000 on the DraftKings slate, he does not exist on the FanDuel slate. Hancock is a highly-regarded righty with a 26% strikeout rate and a 4.32 ERA with a 4.46 xFIP over 98 innings and 20 starts in AA this season, he is making the leap directly to the Show, bypassing AAA entirely. The Padres are a tough opponent with their star power atop the lineup, but Hancock has enough to pay off the cheap hitter price as an SP2 value dart on DraftKings.
- Ha-Seong Kim has a 134 WRC+ with 15 homers and 24 stolen bases and has turned into one of the top contributors in the game of late. Kim has been excellent, he fills three positions on FanDuel but just second base across town and he is still affordable at $5,000/$3,300. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 19 homers and 17 stolen bases but is in a bit of a dip, he has a 115 WRC+ overall and remains a star-caliber option but he has underperformed his pricing recently. Juan Soto is a superstar hitter who has a 156 WRC+ to lead the team. His 24 home runs also lead the Padres, as does his terrific .416 on-base percentage, Soto is a fantastic option in stacks or as a one-off, he has an 11.04 in our home run model for $5,900/$3,900. Manny Machado has a 10.47 in the home run model, Tatis leads the team at 12.27. Machado has 21 homers with a .201 ISO and 109 WRC+ and he remains affordable on both sites. Xander Bogaerts is cheap at $4,800/$2,800 at shortstop. Jake Cronenworth, Ji-Man Choi, Luis Campusano, and Trent Grisham are mix-in options from the bottom of the lineup.
- Seattle is facing ace righty Yu Darvish, who has a 4.41 ERA but a 3.87 xFIP with a 25.4% strikeout rate this season. Darvish has been mostly good while not quite reaching his former heights. He has walked more than usual with his rate jumping from 4.8% last year to 8.0% this season and home runs have gone up slightly from 2.85% to 3.35% over 114.1 innings in 20 starts. Darvish pulls potential from the aggressive approach the Mariners take at the plate, he has good potential and ranks third overall on the pitching board for $8,800/$9,800.
- Seattle’s hard-hitting lineup falls fairly short by fantasy point projections and they have strikeout problems, but on the right night they can provide fireworks at the plate. JP Crawford is a viable leadoff hitter with a 131 WRC+ and 10 home runs on the season, he is a good correlated scoring play for DFS. Julio Rodriguez slots in with 18 home runs and 27 stolen bases and he does magic tricks with his glove in the outfield. Eugenio Suarez has a 29.7% strikeout rate with 16 home runs in 482 plate appearances. Cal Raleigh is at 27.4% strikeouts and 18 home runs. Ty France is scuffling at the plate this season, his triple-slash has dipped badly to just .251/.325/.371 and he has only hit eight home runs. Dominc Canzone, Cade Marlowe, and Josh Rojas are late lineup mix-ins, while Teoscar Hernandez has star-caliber power and 17 home runs but just a 95 WRC+ and a 31.5% strikeout rate with just a 5.3% walk rate on the season. The Mariners are a fairly low-priority stack.
Play: Yu Darvish, Padres bats/stacks, Emerson Hancock SP2 value darts on DraftKings
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-130/4.83) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+120/4.27)
- Righty Merrill Kelly has been mostly effective all season. He has a 3.21 ERA and a 3.83 xFIP with a 25.9% strikeout rate and a 12.3% swinging-strike rate. Kelly has allowed a 2.85% home run rate on 8.6% barrels and 41.1% hard-hits with 89.5 mph of exit velocity on a 10.7-degree launch angle this season and he walks a few too many at 9.2% overall but he is a strong pitcher who is checking the Dodgers to just 4.83 implied runs. Kelly and the Dodgers’ quality have a chance to cancel one another out on this slate, but our model leans toward Los Angeles bats, with Kelly carrying only a lower-middle projection against the elite lineup.
- Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are any-given-slate plays who have superstar talent and have produced endlessly all season. Betts has a 159 WRC+ and Freeman sits at 173, both players have power, speed, and excellent results in their triple-slash numbers, they are easy investments when one has salary to spend on either site. Will Smith is a premium option at the catcher position, he rarely strikes out and he has power with 14 home runs and a .192 ISO. Max Muncy is a left-handed powerhouse with 27 home runs but a lousy triple-slash as a three-true-outcomes hitter. David Peralta, Jason Heyward, and James Outman are a trio of solid lefties that we have featured several times this season. They all have power, they all hit for good average and get involved in the offense and they come cheap to offset the salaries of the Dodgers’ stars. Enrique Hernandez and Amed Rosario join the bottom of the lineup with capable bats, Rosario is the more compelling option with his mid-range power and speed potential for just $4,000/$2,800.
- Bobby Miller slots in as the last pitcher of the day, he projects in the mid-board against the low-strikeout but struggling Diamondbacks who have not been the same team over the past month or so. Miller has a 4.26 ERA with a 3.93 xFIP and 23.3% strikeout rate over his 63.1 innings and 12 starts this season and he has allowed just a 2.26% home run rate on 7.1% barrels. Miller is potentially in play for $8,200/$8,900, but he is an awkward price fit that falls above the value range but below the top two tiers of projections and points-per-dollar value.
- Geraldo Perdomo is projected back atop the Diamondbacks lineup, he has a .370 on-base percentage with a 110 WRC+ overall this season and is affordable in the infield ahead of Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll. Marte has 18 home runs with a 129 WRC+ over 465 plate appearances as a very good option at second base now that his price is down a bit. Carroll has not been the same hitter over the past month, but he has loads of talent and is not facing a blow ’em away starter on the mound. Carroll still has a WRC+ mark that sits 34% better than average and he is a very toolsy option for MLB DFS. Christian Walker has 23 homers with a .246 ISO and 124 WRC+ for cheap pricing at first base, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit for power but has a reduced triple-slash overall this season, and Tommy Pham is a good option for mid-range power and speed from the right side of the plate. Jace Peterson has minor lefty pop late in the lineup, Jake McCarthy has speed if he gets to first base, he has a .332 on-base percentage and 26 stolen bases but just an 87 WRC+ on the season, and Jose Herrera is a min-priced catcher who has done nothing at the plate in 90 opportunities this year or 124 last year.
Play: Dodgers bats/stacks, Merrill Kelly as a high-cost lower-mid option in a few shares, Diamondbacks in small doses
Update Notes:
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