The eight-game Monday MLB DFS main slate takes an interesting shape with a fair amount of playable starting pitchers, a Coors Field game, and several high implied team totals dropping value into interesting situations all over the board. There are easily obvious situations like the Braves with a hefty run total against a league-average starter in their home park, and the Diamondbacks at Coors Field, but other high-end situations for hitting pop up around the Mets, Rays, Padres, and even the Angels against Max Scherzer where they are showing interesting value and power potential. The slate demands a wide net for coverage over as many of the probable outcomes as possible, outside of the massive run total for Arizona’s lineup in the Coors Field game, which should be exceedingly popular, slate-winning scores could pop up in essentially any of these situations, including the low-end Pirates facing Carlos Carrasco, the Cardinals against JP Sears, and the Orioles against Yu Darvish.
Don’t miss our Suggested Stacks feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
Join us at 4:15 ET for a rundown on today’s slate.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 8/14/23
Pittsburgh Pirates (+120/4.99) @ New York Mets (-130/5.63)
The slate opens with a rough pitching matchup in New York. Struggling veteran righty Carlos Carrasco is pushing a 4.99-run implied total in the direction of the visiting Pirates and has a lower-middle projection on a fairly deep pitching slate for $6,000/$6,900. Carrasco has not done much this year to inspire faith even in a mediocre projection, he has a 6.42 ERA and 5.03 xFIP over 17 starts and 81.1 innings while striking out just 15.5% and walking 9.5%. The righty has allowed a 4.35% home run rate on 11.1% barrels, 47% hard hits, and a 91.1 mph exit velocity average, he is a very limited option on either site. Pittsburgh’s frisky lineup is in play on this slate, at least as a value option, the team has several capable hitters and a few interesting rookies, with a lineup that opens with Josh Palacios hitting from the left side. Palacios has a 72 WRC+ over 147 plate appearances this season with four home runs and two stolen bases, the 28-year-old has not demonstrated a reliable ability to get on base over small samples each of the past two seasons. Bryan Reynolds is a star-caliber outfielder when he is going right, he has 17 home runs and nine stolen bases with a 115 WRC+ over 450 plate appearances this season and has been a bit up and down overall. Reynolds is slashing .270/.333/.468 with a .198 ISO, he should be included in most Pirates stacks. Andrew McCutchen has had an uneven season for individual output but he is a strong piece for correlated scoring in the heart of the lineup given his excellent walk rate and .375 on-base percentage. Alfonso Rivas slots in fourth in the projected lineup but the spot could easily go to Henry Davis who is a top-end rookie option with power and a bit of speed. Rivas has a pair of home runs in his 53 plate appearances this season and hit three while stealing six bases in 287 opportunities last year but he has been below average for run creation overall in the small extended sample. Ke’Bryan Hayes is cheap at $3,800/$3,300, the third baseman has eight home runs and an 87 WRC+ but he strikes the ball with authority regularly and should be a better overall hitter, in this matchup there should be plenty of premium contact available for the third baseman. Jack Suwinski is the team’s leading power hitter, he has 21 long balls with a .248 ISO this season. Endy Rodriguez and Liover Peguero have hit for power in their tiny samples in the Show, Rodriguez is a premium catcher prospect with two homers in 75 plate appearances since his promotion, and Peguero has four long balls on the board with a pair of stolen bases in just 63 opportunities since his simultaneous call-up. Alika Williams is another rookie with tools who probably needs some polish but costs $2,000/$2,100 at the bottom of the lineup.
Rookie Quinn Priester’s next good start in the Show will be his first. The righty has made five starts so far and has an ugly 8.75 ERA with a 4.92 xFIP and 1.90 WHIP. Priester has walked 13% while striking out only 17.4% and allowing a monster 4.35% home run rate on 45.6% hard hits. The rookie is known for his plus-plus curveball but his other stuff is lacking at this level and could need additional seasoning. The righty came in with concerns about his fastball, to this point opposing hitters have managed a .909 slugging percentage with a .702 xSLG against the pitch. His slider has been even worse, he has a 1.000 slugging percentage but a .423 xSLG on the pitch to this point. Priester has been limiting his curveball usage to just 14.7%, the pitch has a 44% whiff rate but has oddly not been his go-to at this point. Regardless, the starter has a mid-board projection with a tinge of upside that is a bit difficult to trust, he is not wholly out of play as a value dart at $6,400/$5,300 but the path to success is somewhat obscured by a lot of lousy statistics. Brandon Nimmo slots into his usual spot atop the Mets lineup, the productive outfielder is down to .358 in the on-base column and he has been stuck on 15 home runs for a minute, but overall he is very effective and affordable ahead of the excellent power core the Mets have from 1-3 in the projected lineup. Francisco Alvarez checks in with 21 home runs and a .253 ISO, though he has not hit a homer since August 1st. The 21-year-old emerging star is an excellent option behind the plate for $3.900/$2,800, he has a 12.16 in our home run model and a significant ceiling at the position. Francisco Lindor has an 11.4% barrel rate and 46.1% hard-hit rate with 22 home runs on the board and a .219 ISO while creating runs 19% better than average, he is a bit discounted for the perceptions of struggles at $5,100/$3,600. Pete Alonso has a team-leading 14.15 in our home run model and 35 in his pocket for the season. Alonso is a superstar at first base and he costs $5,400/$3,700, which is a couple hundred too cheap on both sites. Jeff McNeil slots in at second or in the outfield for a fair price at $3,500/$2,700, he is a slap-hitter who needs to see first base a few times to have any value, his .334 on-base percentage and .259 average are far off the mark this season and he has consequently been five percent below average for run creation. Daniel Vogelbach seems to never gain ground statistically despite being in this lineup frequently, the lefty has eight home runs in 251 plate appearances this year. Mark Vientos is a hard-hitting rookie with two home runs in his 120 plate appearances but a 10.3% barrel rate and 53.8% hard-hit rate to support the idea that the power he showed throughout the minors will translate in the Show. Jonathan Arauz and Rafael Ortega are mix-in values late in the lineup.
Play: Mets bats/stacks, Pirates bats/stacks, only value darts of either pitcher with low expectations
Update Notes:
New York Yankees (+182/3.76) @ Atlanta Braves (-200/5.35)
Excellent Atlanta lefty Max Fried should see about 90 pitches today in his eighth outing of the season but just his third back in action after a long injury absence. Fried worked six innings on a limited pitch count in his return on August 4th, striking out eight of 20 Cubs hitters and allowing only three hits while keeping them off the scoreboard. His second outing did not go as planned in Pittsburgh, Fried allowed four runs on six hits with a walk and just four strikeouts while facing 20 Pirates hitters over four innings. With the Yankees in town, the southpaw will have to be on his game, but there is little reason to doubt the starter or his potential to post a quality score while capping out around six innings tonight. Fried has a 25.9% strikeout rate with a 4.9% walk rate in the small sample this season, he worked at 23.2% and 4.4% in 185.1 innings over 30 starts last year. The lefty has been reliably good at cutting power and launch angle over the past few seasons, this year his home run rate is 1.40% on just 84.9 mph of exit velocity on average and a stellar 29.6% hard-hit rate. Last season those marks were 1.64% home runs on 86.2 mph and 31.9% hard hits, Fried is consistently good at taking the bats out of the hands of opposing power hitters. The lefty projects fourth on our fairly deep pitching board, he is a good option for $9,400/$10,600. The Yankees are carrying just a 3.76-run implied total as big underdogs in Atlanta tonight, the middling lineup opens with Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who has been a decent utility option playing all around the diamond for New York this year, but is at best an inconsistent producer with very limited power output at the plate. Kiner-Falefa is slashing .253/.321/.366 with a .113 ISO and he has been eight percent worse than average for run creation with a 3.8% barrel rate and 36.2% hard hits. The utility man does offer multi-position eligibility on both sites for cheap prices, if he hits in this spot ahead of the team’s core of desirable hitters he would be in play for correlated scoring potential. Aaron Judge has an 8.81 in our home run model today which helps illustrate the degree to which Fried is capable of checking home run potential. Judge has 22 long balls and a .348 ISO on the season, he is a crucial part of any Yankees stack. Gleyber Torres has been good all year for New York, he has 18 home runs and stole three bases on Sunday to push his way to 12 in that category and he has created runs 15% better than average as a leading second baseman. Torres is cheap for his talent at the position for just $4,400/$3,000, as is Giancarlo Stanton at just $4,600/$2,900. Torres is limited to just a 3.89 in our home run model and Stanton dips to 6.37 but has all-world power in any matchup and could easily take advantage of a mistake by the starter. Harrison Bader, DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Volpe, and Kyle Higashioka are playable parts in a mix-and-match sense through the bottom of the lineup, Jake Bauers and Billy McKinney are likely to sit against the power-sapping lefty, with Oswaldo Cabrera in the ninth spot in the projected lineup. Bader has a 94 WRC+ over 260 plate appearances with seven homers and 14 stolen bases, LeMahieu has eight home runs and a .240/.315/.373 triple-slash that is disappointing on many levels, Volpe has been a letdown outside of his infrequent counting stats, the rookie has 16 homers and 20 stolen bases but just a .291 on-base percentage and 87 WRC+, and Higashioka offers inconsistent but excellent contact from the catcher spot. Cabrera is an afterthought with a .099 ISO and 55 WRC+ on the season.
The Braves are an elite option regardless of who is on the mound, against Clarke Schmidt they do take a bit of a dip on our stacks board, given a Coors Field game and a few other good spots that outpace them for a change, but there is major potential in Atlanta and Vegas has them carrying a 5.35-run implied total. Schmidt has a 22.2% strikeout rate with a 4.23 ERA and 4.32 xFIP on the season, he has not been bad but he has run into a bit of premium contact with an 8.1% barrel rate, 42.3% hard hits, and 90 mph of exit velocity amounting to a 3.43% home run rate. The righty has a very low projection on the pitching board, he looks borderline unplayable at even $7,700/$7,600. The everyday version of the Atlanta lineup is in place with Ronald Acuna Jr. up top sporting a .337/.421/.574 triple-slash, a .237 ISO, and a 167 WRC+ with 26 home runs and 55 stolen bases. Acuna is a pricey superstar at $6,700/$4,600, he is entirely worthwhile on any slate. Ozzie Albies left last night’s game with cramping but is expected to return to the lineup today, Albies is a premium option at second base for $6,000/$3,900. The infielder has 28 home runs and 11 stolen bases with a .247 ISO and 120 WRC+ and is every bit the key ingredient in this lineup that Austin Riley and Matt Olson are. Riley fits in at third base for $6,200/$4,000, he also has 28 home runs this year and has worked his way up to a .270/.339/.513 triple-slash with a .233 ISO and 124 WRC+. The ludicrous lineup peaks for power with Matt Olson who now has 43 home runs on the season and is a missile targeted for 60 on the season if he keeps the pace. Olson costs $6,500/$4,400, it is very difficult to stack the amazing top-four of this squad with anything else of value. Marcell Ozuna is a $4,500/$2,700 option in the outfield, he has a .226 ISO with a 104 WRC+ and 23 home runs on the season, Eddie Rosario adds left-handed pop for cheap pricing in the outfield, he has 16 home runs on the board with a .201 ISO overall but just a 94 WRC+, and Sean Murphy is one of baseball’s leading catchers with the bat in his hands. Murphy has 20 home runs and a .264 ISO over 346 plate appearances over which he has created runs 46% better than average this season. Orlando Arcia and Michael Harris II are terrific options in the final two spots, Arcia has 13 home runs and a 116 WRC+ with a sturdy triple-slash and Harris has pulled himself all the way up to .287/.335/.456 with a 111 WRC+, 11 home runs, and 16 stolen bases in a terrific rush after his early absence and struggles at the plate.
Play: Braves bats/stacks, Max Fried, Yankees as a low-priority mix-in with value pricing
Update Notes:
Oakland Athletics (+201/3.44) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-222/5.17)
St. Louis veteran Miles Mikolas benefits greatly from a matchup against the Oakland Athletics in this one. The righty has a 4.20 ERA and 4.58 xFIP over 141.1 innings and 25 starts this season and has struck out only 16.5% of opposing hitters but he projects fifth overall on the pitching board in our model in the top-level matchup against a weak Oakland squad. Mikolas has allowed just a 2.17% home run rate on 7.9% barrels and 39.5% hard hits this season, and he is excellent at keeping out of trouble with just a 4.3% walk rate. The righty has allowed a bit more power in larger samples in his career, but home runs have never been a big issue and he has been adept at missing barrels with just a 6.9% rate allowed in a full season last year and a 7.7% mark in a tiny sample the year before. Oakland is lousy at sequencing, they tend to do any damage in odd spots with the long ball, if Mikloas can avoid that he stands to post a strong start for just $7.000/$8,000 as the top value pitcher on either site. Oakland’s active roster ranks 25th in baseball with a collective 94 WRC+ against righties and they have a 25.2% strikeout rate in the split. The team has a bit of left-handed power and two hard-hitting rookies to deal with, but Mikolas has plenty of potential tonight. Oakland stacks should begin with rookie Zack Gelof, who is projected to hit second. The right-handed infielder slots in for $4,500/$3,600 at second base on DraftKings and third base on FanDuel. Gelof has hit eight home runs and stolen six bases in just 105 plate appearances since his promotion to the Show and has announced his presence with authority. The rookie is surrounded by JJ Bleday in the leadoff role and Brent Rooker in the third spot in the lineup. Rooker has 19 home runs and a .224 ISO with a 121 WRC+ over 369 plate appearances, but most of his damage came early in the year. Bleday has a bit of lefty pop with 10 home runs on the board but is slashing .202/.313/.373 overall. Seth Brown is the second priority bat in Athletics stacks, the lefty slugger has 11 homers in 254 plate appearances with a 13.8% barrel rate and 48.4% hard hits, and he costs just $3,500/$2,600 with a 7.17 in our home run model. Jordan Diaz is a playable part with a 104 WRC+ and cheap pricing at third base on DraftKings and second base on FanDuel. Rookie catcher Tyler Soderstrom is another left-handed hitter who has some potential for power against Mikolas on the right day. Soderstrom has one home run in 75 plate appearances so far but is expected to hit at this level. Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers, and Nick Allen are mix-in options late in the lineup in a bad situation overall.
The Cardinals are drawing a 5.17-run implied team total against lefty JP Sears, who has posted capable numbers and several strong starts in an OK season overall. Sears has a 4.23 ERA but a revealing 5.05 xFIP with a 22.4% strikeout rate and just 5.5% walks. The southpaw has allowed far too much premium contact with 12.7% barrels and a resulting 4.78% home run rate, he costs $7,400/$7,200 and projects in the bottom quarter of the pitching pool in our model in a game with favorable hitting conditions and a fair wind blowing out to right field. Lars Nootbaar is entrenched in the leadoff role, the lefty has 12 home runs and eight stolen bases with a 132 WRC+ overall this season and a 101 WRC+ in 88 plate appearances against same-handed pitching in which he has not displayed much power. Paul Goldschmidt has 18 home runs and nine stolen bases while creating runs 23% better than average in another fine season. The first baseman costs $5,800/$3,300, his FanDuel price seems like a bargain for the production, while Goldschmidt is not having a repeat MVP season he has significant upside on any slate, particularly against a scuffling lefty who offers power. Nolan Arenado has an 8.04 in our home run model with a higher ceiling, he has 24 homers on the season and a .225 ISO for $5,600/$3,400. Willson Contreras checks in at $3,600/$2,700, the catcher has a 123 WRC+ in 393 plate appearances with 13 home runs and a 46.8% hard-hit rate with 11.9% barrels for a cheap price as a great positional option. Nolan Gorman drops to fifth in the projected lineup but he has been excellent in a small sample of same-handed matchups this season. Gorman has 24 home runs and a .246 ISO with a 122 WRC+ overall, in a managed sample of 66 plate appearances he has seen in the split against lefties he has a 145 WRC+ with a .232 ISO and three of his home runs. Tyler O’Neill has massive right-handed power and has hit six home runs in 174 plate appearances while dealing with injuries yet again this year. Tommy Edman is a productive option with a 102 WRC+, mid-range power, and good speed on the bases, he is an option to lead off if the team does not go with Nootbaar against the lefty. Jordan Walker and Luken Baker round out the projected lineup as playable mix-in right-handed bats for cheap pricing. Walker came into the season with Rookie of the Year buzz but did not deliver in full, he has a 101 WRC+ with 10 home runs and five stolen bases over 297 plate appearances. Baker is a $2,000 option at first base on either site but is difficult to slot in over Goldschdmit too many times on the DraftKings slate.
Play: Miles Mikolas, Cardinals bats/stacks, Athletics bats/stacks as a low-expectation hedge against heavy Mikolas ownership/contrarian position against Mikolas public popularity
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Angels (+162/3.69) @ Texas Rangers (-178/4.92)
The Angels are checked to just 3.69 implied runs with veteran hurler Max Scherzer on the bump for Texas. Scherzer has worked his way up to 27.4% strikeouts after struggling earlier in the season, but he is still down about three points year over year in the category with a dip of about 1.5 points in his swinging-strike rate. The righty has a 3.88 ERA with a 4.02 xFIP and a 6.9% walk rate on the season but he has allowed odd power this year. Scherzer has a 4.84% home run rate with a 9.6% barrel rate in a strange blip that could play well against the hard-hitting Angels lineup on the wrong night for the starter. Scherzer has a second-overall projection on our pitching board, he looks like a strong option but if he gains a ton of popularity the Angels are not a bad counter option for MLB DFS purposes, despite where Vegas has them on the runs board. Lefty Mickey Moniak is projected to lead off, he has a dozen home runs with a .289/.320/.521 triple-slash and a .231 ISO for $4,700/$2,900 in the outfield. Moniak has cooled a bit after his outrageously good start, but he is a capable enough lefty hitter in a good position in the batting order when stacking Angels. Shohei Ohtani is pulling a 14.63 in our home run model against Scherzer, the superstar has all-world talent against anyone. Ohtani has 41 homers with 17 stolen bases and a 183 WRC+ on the season, he is in play even against Scherzer for $6,600/$4,400. Brandon Drury has 15 home runs on the board with a .214 ISO, Mike Moustakas has hit 11 cheap lefty long balls in just 284 plate appearances and sports a 103 WRC+, and CJ Cron checks in with massive right-handed power and a 7.18 in our home run model for $4,300/$2,900 at first base. With the idea of some oddball power potential against Scherzer, the Angels are actually a very inexpensive stack, even with Ohtani pushing the average cost, it is easy to counter his high price with bats like Drury and Cron, let alone an inexpensive Hunter Renfroe who is still stuck at 17 home runs for the season but costs just $3,500/$2,600. Matt Thaiss and Randal Grichuk are another pair of playable options in the deep veteran lineup. Scherzer is the strong side of the equation, but Angels bats have an interesting upside on the right night for MLB DFS tournament play as an undoubtedly unpopular option.
Lefty Patrick Sandoval has been mostly on-form this season with a 3.86 ERA and 4.36 xFIP while striking out 19.2%, walking 9.6%, and limiting home runs to just 1.88% on 35.1% hard hits. Sandoval’s primary attribute on the mound is keeping the ball down and limiting premium contact, he goes up and down for strikeout potential but is not inept in that area either. In 2022, Sandoval had a 23.7% strikeout rate over 148.2 innings, and he worked at 25.9% in a short 87-inning season in 2021. Sandoval projects as a low-end matchup against the excellent Rangers lineup however, he ranks third from the bottom on our pitching board for $8,600/$7,200 and does not look like an overly appealing option for anything outside of a few value darts. Texas sits just seventh by collective projections and 10th for home run potential while pulling in a 13th-ranked points-per-dollar value spot on FanDuel and 15th on DraftKings on a 16-team slate. The Rangers are a high-quality option but their prices are up for the situation and they have a 4.92 run total that is good-not-great for today’s slate. Marcus Semien costs $6,100/$3,600 at second base, he has a 125 WRC+ with 18 homers and 10 stolen bases in 549 plate appearances setting the pace for this lineup. Semien has gotten on base at a .352 clip this season while striking out just 13.1% of the time, he is terrific at putting the ball in play and should align well against Sandoval. Corey Seager is a superstar shortstop with 20 home runs and 186 WRC+ over 339 plate appearances. Seager rightly costs $6,300/$4,200 as a big ticket item in this lineup. Adolis Garcia moves up to third with Josh Jung still out and Nathaniel Lowe moving to clean up against the lefty in the projected lineup. Garcia has an 8.00 in our home run model with 29 on the season, he is a good option for power even with Sandoval’s ability to limit it accounted for. Lowe has 14 home runs and a 128 WRC+ with a sturdy .279/.370/.450 triple-slash for just $4,500/$3,400, he is the first discount in this lineup. Mitch Garver has excellent power at the catcher position with eight homers and a .205 ISO in his 174 plate appearances, for $3,500/$2,900 he is positionally playable in the pricey Texas stack. Jonah Heim is another very good power option at catcher, he costs $3,400/$3,200 and should be considered an alternating part with Garver. Both catchers can be played together on FanDuel if one desires. Robbie Grossman, Ezequiel Duran, and Leody Taveras are good playable parts to round out a stack, Duran and Taveras are the favored options though Taveras has slipped to just 98 WRC+ during a recent downturn. Duran has a 124 WRC+ in an excellent season.
Play: Max Scherzer, Rangers bats/stacks, Angels bats/stacks in smaller portions as a hedge/contrarian option with good power marks
Update Notes:
Seattle Mariners (-145.4.41) @ Kansas City Royals (+133/3.69)
The Mariners are a fair favorite with a 4.41-run implied total in Kansas City against righty Brady Singer tonight. Singer has run out a string of decent outings after struggling through the first two-thirds of a disappointing season. The righty has a 5.05 ERA with a 4.22 xFIP in 128.1 innings overall, and he had a 3.51 xFIP with a 22.6% strikeout rate in July, but that has dipped with just four strikeouts in each of his last two outings. Singer has not given up more than three runs in four straight starts, but that is not at all predictive for tonight. The righty has worked deep into ballgames a number of times this season, he gains a bit of value on the idea of booking innings against a high-strikeout Mariners squad, but overall he does not project very well on our pitching board and ranks more as a mix-in value dart at $7,900 on DraftKings, he is a play for low ownership with a salary tax at $9,100 on FanDuel for those who want to throw the pricey dart. Julio Rodriguez slots into the leadoff spot for Seattle, he has 19 homers and 27 stolen bases with a .255/.318/.433 triple-slash and a .178 ISO. While the triple-slash and run creation marks are down from last season, Rodriguez still offers an excellent ability to collect counting stats and provides a quality ceiling for MLB DFS scoring at $5,500/$3,800 in the outfield. Eugenio Suarez has 16 home runs and a 103 WRC+ for $3,900/$2,700 as a cheap third base option, Cal Raleigh offers affordable switch-hitting power behind the plate for $4,500/$3,200, and Teoscar Hernandez costs $3,600/$2,600 with power in the outfield and 17 home runs on the season. Those three players have strikeout rates of 30.1%, 28.1%, and 30.7% this season which speaks directly to the team’s flaws. Ty France has nine home runs and a 105 WRC+ with a .253/.331/.379 triple-slash in a disappointing season but he comes cheap at first base. Dominic Canzone had a killer bat flip moment after a long bomb on Sunday, he has two home runs and a 78 WRC+ over 69 plate appearances in the Show between Arizona and Seattle but he is very cheap at $2,500/$2,400 with obvious ability. Cade Marlowe has a pair of home runs and a .313/.400/.521 triple-slash over his first 55 opportunities, the lefty outfielder costs $3,400/$2,600 as a cheap piece of value. Dylan Moore and Josh Rojas are multi-position mix-in options from the final two spots.
Logan Gilbert looks like a sound option from the upper-middle of a deep pitching board for $9,700/$10,000 tonight against the low-end Royals lineup. Gilbert has a 25.1% strikeout rate with a terrific 4.4% walk rate, a 3.66 ERA, and a 3.65 xFIP as the template for Seattle’s deep organizational pitching staff. The righty has an 11.6% swinging-strike rate, and he has allowed just 3.09% home runs but has run into a touch of premium contact at 9.3% barrels and 43% hard hits, but overall he is a top-notch option on this slate. At his pricing, Gilbert may not be as popular as he should be in this matchup, particularly for the higher relative salary on the blue site. He is a good option who gets better the lower his popularity falls. Royals stacks are rarely the answer, particularly in a lousy hitting situation against a starter who does not get himself into trouble, even if they find a few instances of premium contact it seems unlikely that they will pile up runs on Gilbert, and they have just a 3.69-run implied total in Vegas. Maikel Garcia has 18 stolen bases and an OK triple-slash but just a 94 WRC+ overall, he is a cheap correlated scoring option ahead of Bobby Witt Jr., the team’s star shortstop. Witt has 21 homers and 34 stolen bases with an 11.6% barrel rate and 43.7% hard hits this season, he is a positional play at $5,900/$3,800 and a vital piece of most Royals stacks. Michael Massey has a bit of lefty pop, he has hit 10 home runs in 317 plate appearances with a 41.2% hard-hit rate but overall his ISO sits at just .148 and he has a 72 WRC+. Salvador Perez has hit 18 home runs in an up-and-down season, MJ Melendez makes great contact and is up to 12 home runs with believable left-handed power but he is an inconsistent option at the plate for $3,100/$2,400. Edward Olivares, Matt Beaty, Nelson Velazquez, and Kyle Isbel are not much more than mix-in options with below-average run-creation abilities from late in the lineup.
Play: Logan Gilbert, Mariners bats/stacks, Singer as a value dart on DraftKings and a popularity play on FanDuel
Update Notes:
Arizona Diamondbacks (-204/6.87) @ Colorado Rockies (+186/4.77)
Visiting starter Merrill Kelly may be a playable part even at Coors Field tonight, home starter Chris Flexen is decidedly not one. Flexen has a 14.6% strikeout rate with a 10.1% walk rate, a 7.92 ERA, and a 5.49 xFIP in seven starts and 55.2 innings this season. The righty has allowed a massive 6.37% home run rate on 9.5% barrels and a 41% hard-hit rate, he is simply a target for Diamondbacks bats. Kelly checks in with quality marks across the board, he has a 3.05 ERA with a 3.87 xFIP and a 25% strikeout rate while walking a few too many at 9.2% this season. For $8,100/$9,300 there is potential for the righty to succeed even in this ballpark. Vegas has the Rockies carrying a low-for-Coors 4.77-run implied total with a bit of respect for Kelly, who has given up just 2.71% home runs on eight percent barrels and a 40.1% hard-hit rate this season. The Rockies stack is not off the board for value, but Kelly is a playable option against a team that, even with Coors included, has been baseball’s worst for run creation against both hands this season. Against righties, the collective Rockies active roster has a 78 WRC+ to rank 30th out of 30. They also strike out at a 26.2% clip in the split and have a limited .147 ISO. Kelly is a talented pitcher with a good ceiling in an obviously bad pitching situation, but he could not be facing an easier opponent in this ballpark.
Diamondbacks stacks will be crushingly popular on this slate. The team is carrying a 6.87-run implied total in by far the highest totaled game of the day and they are the clear favorites in a fantastic hitting situation. If this game were played in a neutral ballpark, Arizona would still be one of the top options on the slate with Flexen on the mound, they look terrific but construction and popularity are important considerations. Corbin Carroll has 21 home runs and 36 stolen bases, he has stalled a bit on the power front but he remains a strong option even at $6,000/$4,300, his bat and speed play very well from the leadoff spot in this ballpark even if he is not blasting the ball over the wall. Ketel Marte is a top option at second base, he has 19 home runs and a .211 ISO with a 127 WRC+ over 482 mostly terrific plate appearances. Marte has a 15.6% strikeout rate, he puts the ball in play with authority regularly and is a positional star for $5,700/$4,000. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has 19 home runs and a .215 ISO with a diminished triple-slash but good overall output with a 107 WRC+. Christian Walker has an 8.09 in our home run model with 24 on the board for the season, he is another hitter who does not strike out nearly as much as his power might suggest, for just $5,200/$3,900 at first base he is a high-quality option in a great spot. Tommy Pham checks in for $3,200/$3,000 with multi-category counting stat ability and a good talent fit for the big ballpark. Jake McCarthy offers speed but irregular on-base and run creation skills with just a .325 on-base percentage and an 81 WRC+. Jace Peterson, Gabriel Moreno, and Geraldo Perdomo are all playable mix-in values late in the lineup. Peterson has infrequent left-handed power in the infield, Moreno is back in the lineup as a quality option with power and a bit of speed at catcher, and Perdomo has been up and down but has a .371 on-base percentage for the season. On the Rockies side options are limited to Ryan McMahon and a handful of interesting rookies. McMahon has realistic left-handed power with 19 home runs and a .212 ISO but he has created runs just at a league average 100 WRC+ for the season. Ezequiel Tovar is slated to hit leadoff ahead of McMahon in the projected lineup, he has been a letdown as a rookie and has a 75 WRC+ over 436 plate appearances but does come cheap with tools for power and speed. Brendan Rodgers is another toolsy player at a cheap price, he missed most of the season with injuries and has a -7 WRC+ over 37 plate appearances. Elias Diaz is a playable part at catcher, Nolan Jones is probably the team’s best current hitter at .267/.348/.485 with a .218 ISO and 11 home runs in just 233 plate appearances, and Michael Toglia slots in with Elehuris Montero in the sixth and seventh spots with right-handed power potential. Harold Castro and Brenton Doyle are mix-ins late in the batting order.
Play: Diamondbacks bats/stacks, Merrill Kelly, Rockies bats/stacks in smaller portions – the Diamondbacks bats will require decisions or attention around their popularity as the visiting team at Coors.
Update Notes:
Baltimore Orioles (+125/3.99) @ San Diego Padres (-136/4.61)
The frisky Orioles lineup is drawing just a 3.99-run implied team total and fairly low marks in our model against Padres righty Yu Darvish who lands third overall on our pitching board. Darvish has a 24.9% strikeout rate with a 4.19 ERA and 3.94 xFIP so far this season, he looks very similar to his overall stats from the past few seasons and costs $8,700/$9,700 in the matchup. Darvish has allowed a 3.19% home run rate on 7.6% barrels and 37.5% hard-hits, he is not the easiest option to square-up but the Orioles have obvious talent that keeps them alive as one of the less-likely upside stacks of the day. Adley Rutschman has a 15.1% strikeout rate and 13.1% walk rate this season, he has been outstanding atop the lineup and has a .366 on-base percentage with a 121 WRC+ and 16 home runs. Rutschman is cheap for his talent where his position is required and he is a playable option on both sites in stacks of Orioles for $5,100/$2,900. Gunnar Henderson costs $5,000/$3,000 with shortstop eligibility on DraftKings and adding third base to the equation on FanDuel, he has 19 home runs and a .221 ISO and seems a bit cheap despite a tough matchup against Darvish. Anthony Santander has power on both sides, he has 21 home runs and a .218 ISO on the season and comes cheap at $4,500/$3,200 with outfield and first base eligibility on FanDuel. Ryan O’Hearn remains cheap at $3,000/$2,600 with outfield and first base positioning on both sites, he has nine home runs with a .290/.326/.484 triple-slash in a surprising 233 plate appearances. Cedric Mullins saved the day with an incredible catch to rob a home run in deep center field and followed it up with a game-winning home run in the next inning last night, the toolsy star missed a chunk of time this season but is a 30/30 player with a significant ceiling for just $4,300/$3,500. Ryan Mountcastle has major power from the right side, he has a 14.2% barrel rate and 47.6% hard hits with 15 home runs in 356 plate appearances while creating runs 15% better than average and he is sure to be under-owned despite just a $4,200/$3,000 price tag. Adam Frazier, Ramon Urias, and Jorge Mateo round out the lineup as mixers.
The Padres look like a strong option against Grayson Rodriguez tonight. The team has a 4.61-run implied total against the rookie and they are showing indicators for power and fantasy point production in our model. Rodriguez has been undeniably better since his return to the Show in mid-July. The righty is yet to allow more than the four runs he gave up on his return day against the Dodgers, and he has not yielded a home run in any of the five starts in a major step forward in what had been a problem area when he was sent down. Rodriguez still has a 4.01% home run rate for the season on 9.4% barrels and 46.2% hard hits, he has a ways to go before the numbers fully normalize but he has been better of late. The rookie has a 24.7% strikeout rate but a 9.6% walk rate with a 5.84 ERA and 3.88 xFIP overall, he is not unplayable for $6,400/$7,500 as a less-than-likely value dart, particularly given his cheap price point as an SP2 on DraftKings. Ha-Seong Kim has a 133 WRC+ with 15 home runs and 27 stolen bases in a strong season. Kim is a good correlated scoring play with individual upside atop the lineup, he has triple-position eligibility on FanDuel but fits only at second base across town for $4,900/$3,200. Fernando Tatis Jr. has an 11.49 in the home run model with 19 homers and a matching stolen base total this season. Juan Soto is our overall home run pick of the day with a 10.32 in the model and immense left-handed power in the heart of the lineup. Soto is inexpensive at $5,600/$3,800 given his 24 home runs, .239 ISO, 151 WRC+, 57.5% hard-hit rate, and 19.1% walk rate, he is an undervalued superstar. Manny Machado has hit 21 home runs while slashing .256/.321/.457, and Xander Bogaerts has 12 home runs with 13 stolen bases and is on the rise with a .271/.344/.400 triple-slash. Both players remain discounted at $5,300/$3,500 and $4,800/$3,100. Jake Cronentworth, Ji-Man Choi, Luis Campusano, and Trent Grisham are mix-in options with some power potential late in the lineup.
Play: Padres bats/stacks, Yu Darvish, Grayson Rodriguez value darts, Orioles bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Tampa Bay Rays (-127/4.00) @ San Francisco Giants (+118/3.58)
The Rays are carrying just a 4.00-run implied total in San Francisco tonight against an open-follower configuration that features southpaw Sean Manaea as the primary option in bulk relief. The lefty has a 28.1% strikeout rate in 77.2 innings this season while pitching to a 5.10 ERA and 3.86 xFIP with 2.40% home runs allowed. Manaea costs $5,600/$7,300 and would be in play for those inclined to chase bulk relief points at cheap salaries. The veteran is a high-strikeout tightrope with obvious flaws, but he has won slates from this position this season. The Rays are carrying strong projections in our model with a configuration against the Manaea innings. Tampa Bay has a very good lineup that flexes against either hand, Yandy Diaz sets the pace with a .403 on-base percentage and 161 WRC+ over 442 plate appearances for just $5,000/$3,600. Brandon Lowe has a 10.50 in our home run model and major power at second base in any matchup, he costs a mere $4,600/$2,900 tonight. Randy Arozarena has hit 18 home runs and stolen 15 bases with a 127 WRC+ and a 49.3% hard- hit rate with 13% barrels. Arozarena is a star-caliber outfielder who is affordable at $5,400/$3,600, he is a potentially interesting one-off at low popularity and he is highly playable as an important cog in Rays stacks. Isaac Paredes is flashing a 10.41 in the home run model, he has 23 on the season despite making just 399 plate appearances and he carries a .253 ISO with a 142 WRC+ into action for just $4,000/$3,100 with multi-position eligibility as a major asset on either site. Luke Raley has left-handed power and speed, he has 16 home runs and 12 stolen bases in the books over just 321 plate appearances this year. Jose Siri has 23 home runs in even fewer plate appearances than Paredes, he has mashed over his 288 opportunities and has a .299 ISO with a 109 WRC+ and a 13.9% barrel rate. Siri costs $3,800/$3,100 in the outfield. Josh Lowe checks in with a 121 WRC+ over 354 plate appearances. Lowe costs $4,300/$3,200 in the outfield, he has 14 home runs and 24 stolen bases with a quality triple-slash that will be under-owned in this spot. Osleivis Basabe is a speed and hit-tool prospect who will be filling in for the foreseeable future with Wander Franco potentially heading to prison if criminal allegations levied against him over the weekend prove true. Rene Pinto is a mix-in catcher.
The final team on the slate will be facing Rays ace Tyler Glasnow, who tops the board in our pitching model today. Glasnow has a monster projection that easily outpaces everyone else on the slate for $10,800/$10,700, he is a premium righty in a quality matchup against a Giants team that has a 23.3% strikeout rate in the split against righties as a unit this season but also creates runs six percent better than average against righties. Glasnow has been working deep into games, he has four quality starts in a row since mid-July and has been finding his strikeouts along the way with a 34.5% rate for the season that easily leads all available pitchers today. Glasnow has walked just 7.9% and he has a 3.15 ERA with a 2.67 xFIP while allowing too many barrels and a lot of premium contact in an odd combination. Glasnow has not been burnt by the 15.7% barrel rate and 47.2% hard-hit rate that he has compiled in the small sample, giving up just 3.24% home runs which, while higher than we would want is both non-tragic and low for the amount of excellent contact he has allowed. Despite that concerning wart under the surface, Glasnow looks like the premium pitcher du jour today, he is well worth a fair investment of shares in the late game. The Giants have playable options in stacks but just a 3.58-run implied total in Vegas. The focus when stacking Giants should be on the top of the lineup and the good-not-great lefty power hitters. LaMonte Wade Jr. falls into both of those categories in the leadoff role, he costs $3,600/$2,700 despite a .389 on-base percentage and 126 WRC+ over 396 plate appearances and he has 11 home runs with a 10% barrel rate and 40.6% hard-hit rate. Thairo Estrada is an effective infield option with a 104 WRC+ in his 352 plate appearances, he has nine homers and 18 stolen bases and a reduced $4,500/$3,100 price tag. Wilmer Flores has been terrific in the second half, he is slashing .300/.358/.535 with a .234 ISO and 15 home runs in 302 plate appearances overall this season and costs just $3,500/$2,900 while offering triple-position eligibility on the blue site. Joc Pederson has big left-handed power, he has a .183 ISO on the season with just 11 home runs in his 293 plate appearances but he also is carrying a 12.8% barrel rate and 51.6% hard hits and has had better seasons for home run output in recent years. Pederson is cheap at $3,900/$2,800. Patrick Bailey is an effective option at catcher with a 101 WRC+ and a bit of pop in his bat. Michael Conforto has good lefty power on the right night but he has slid down the lineup while scuffling to just a .242/.336/.405 triple-slash with 15 home runs and a .163 ISO. JD Davis also has 15 home runs on the season but has dipped in quality in the second half and is down to a 102 WRC+, and Brandon Crawford and Luis Matos are mix-in values late in the batting order.
Play: Tyler Glasnow, Rays bats/stacks, contrarian/hedge shares of Giants bats
Update Notes:
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