A deep interesting 11-game slate takes shape Wednesday evening on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The board features a short but fairly broad list of pitchers from the middle of most of the available rotations, there is an abundance of good-not-great available on the mound today, along with several excellent targets for bats. The slate seems to be leaning somewhat toward offense, at least a few of the obviously low-end pitchers are going to get tagged by the good offenses that they are facing and we know several of the better-looking pitchers will also go bust, which should lead to a productive night at the plate. Focusing on a tight rotation of pitchers from a range of prices with a broader spread of shares across the many hitting opportunities looks like the approach on a slate of this nature.
Don’t miss our new Stack Suggestions feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
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Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 7/5/23
Baltimore Orioles (-113/4.65) @ New York Yankees (+105/4.44)
The first game of the slate sees the Orioles favored in the continuing division rivalry series in the Bronx. New York will be starting righty Randy Vasquez in the third outing of his career. Vasquez made a pair of starts at the end of May and in early June, working 4.2 innings with six strikeouts but three walks with two runs allowed on four hits including a home run against the Padres followed by a 5.2-inning start in which he struck out just three but worked a clean two-hit game. Vasquez has a 24.3% strikeout rate over 61.2 innings in 13 starts in AAA this season with a 4.95 xFIP and 5.11 ERA, he is not a top prospect but is someone the organization expects to pitch at the MLB level. Vasquez is minimally playable, he has a lower-middle range projection on the pitching board for $7,100/$5,500. The Orioles look like a good option on this slate, they play well for value with upside for a good night of DFS scoring in Yankee Stadium. Gunnar Henderson is up to a 116 WRC+ and has found a great home atop the Orioles lineup, he has a .336 on-base percentage on the back of a 12.1% walk rate and has hit 11 home runs with a .205 ISO. Adley Rutschman has hit 11 home runs and is a top catcher for a fair price on both sites, Anthony Santander has hit 14 home runs to lead the projected Baltimore lineup, he has a .211 ISO and comes cheap at $4,700/$3,400 in the outfield, and Ryan O’Hearn has been having the most productive stretch of his career to this point in 2023 while landing at a cheap $3,700/$2,600. Cedric Mullins is a star in the outfield, he went 30/30 in 2021 and 16/34 in 2022, Mullins has missed a bit of time but sits at eight home runs and 13 stolen bases in 265 plate appearances. Aaron Hicks is a mix-and-match level talent who may or may not be in the lineup with the big news of the promotion of top outfield prospect Colton Cowser, who most certainly will play tonight. Cowser is yet another top-100 prospect for Baltimore, he reached the very peak of most prospect boards around the league before his promotion and is expected to contribute immediately for both power and speed. The premium rookie costs the dead minimum on DraftKings and $2,500 on FanDuel. Jordan Westburg was just the premium rookie of the day 26 plate appearances ago, but he is now old news hitting eighth for $3,200/$2,700, it makes sense to take advantage of another high-impact rookie at the bottom of the batting order. Adam Frazier is a mix-in veteran with the ability to contribute counting stats from the ninth spot.
The Yankees draw Dean Kremer, a moderately effective righty who has a 20.9% strikeout rate with a 5.04 ERA and 4.43 xFIP on the season. Kremer has induced a 10.1% swinging-strike rate but has allowed power with a 4.83% home run rate on an 11% barrel rate with 45.2% hard hits. The righty is targetable with Yankees bats, he carries a mid-board projection that is similar to Vasquez on the other side of this game but comes at a higher price than his opponent. New York’s projected batting order opens with DJ LeMahieu though there is a bit of buzz about surging Anthony Volpe moving back to the top of the batting order. Volpe has been raking of late and has his triple-slash up to .222/.295/.392, which we assure new readers is a big improvement. Volpe has 11 home runs and has pulled his WRC+ to 91 with an OPS that rivals the best in the game over the past three weeks. LeMahieu, meanwhile, has been mostly terrible all season and has a .287 on-base percentage with a 79 WRC+, so the sooner he is removed from the leadoff spot the better. The former hit tool specialist has shown very little this season, his strikeout rate has doubled and he has not put bat on ball well. Gleyber Torres hit his 13th home run last night, the up and down second baseman has a 108 WRC+ and is playable in Yankees stacks. Giancarlo Stanton needs to get his season in gear, the outfielder is slashing .207/.272/.407 with a .200 ISO and seven home runs in 147 plate appearances while creating runs 17% worse than average. Anthony Rizzo is at a 120 WRC+ with 11 home runs and has stabilized in this .260s but was expected to hit for a much better average and more reliable power than he has shown in recent weeks. Rizzo is cheap for his talent at first base for just $4,000/$3,100 in stacks of Yankees, they are one of the top value stacks of the day. Harrison Bader has a knack for big moments, he has seven home runs and seven stolen bases with a 108 WRC+ and should be involved in the middle of the batting order. Jake Bauers has left-handed power in Yankee Stadium, which is always an asset. Bauers has hit inexpensive and under-owned home runs this season. Volpe is projected to hit seventh but may land first or ninth, he is playable in any spot. Billy McKinney has been good at the plate while Kyle Higashioka makes great contact but has inconsistent results.
Play: Orioles bats/stacks, Yankees bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Cincinnati Reds (-117/4.96) @ Washington Nationals (+108/4.65)
The visiting Reds are one of the leading teams on our board for power potential and for fantasy points in their matchup against Josiah Gray, who has been a roller coaster for much of his career. Gray was a massive target for home runs each of the past two seasons and has been lousy for them in spots this year, but ultimately his ability to keep the ball in the yard has improved dramatically with a home run rate that has dipped from 5.86% last year and 6.19% in 2021 to just 2.93%. The righty has been more reliable at missing barrels and has reduced his hard-hit rate slightly as well, to clear results, but the rest of his game has been fairly limited. Gray has struck out 21% of opposing hitters but has also walked 10.5% with a 1.38 WHIP. His 3.30 ERA is deceptive, the 4.66 xFIP is the more telling number for what the pitcher is doing on the mound this season. Gray has a dash of upside on the right night, he has posted strong outings alongside a few total clunkers this season and he projects in the top half of our pitching board on a night of mid-level options. Gray is in play at $8,100/$8,300 in a both-sided situation in which we prefer the Reds bats but will have shares of the starter. Cincinnati’s potentially explosive lineup is the strong preference in this situation, despite Gray’s projection. The Reds are pulling in big power marks and they land at fair prices on both sites with several positionally flexible options in play. TJ Friedl has created runs 23% better than average and has been getting on base at a .375 clip this season. Friedl is good in the leadoff role, he has 15 stolen bases and is an option for correlated scoring on this slate. Matt McClain is an emerging star who has been rolling since his promotion. McLain has seven home runs and five steals with a .232 ISO and has created runs 39% better than average, he slots in at shortstop or second base on DraftKings for $5,400 and fits only at shortstop for $3,800 on the blue site. Jonathan India is a talented toolsy second baseman with good power and speed, he has 13 home runs and 12 stolen bases to lead the way for the young Reds this season. Elly De La Cruz costs $6,000/$4,000 at third base or shortstop on both sites, he is carrying a .308/.348/.490 triple-slash with three home runs and 10 stolen bases while creating runs 18% better than average but striking out 31.3% of the time over his first 112 plate appearances. Jake Fraley and Joey Votto have thunderous left-handed power to throw at Gray, they cost $5,200/$3,300 and $5,100/$3,100 in the outfield and at first base respectively and are both worth including in an abundance of Reds stacks. Spencer Steer has 14 home runs while slashing .292/.381/.505 and creating runs 34% better than average in a big breakout season, he is worthy of shares from anywhere in the lineup. Tyler Stephenson and Will Benson are low-priority mix-in options late in the lineup.
The Nationals will face Graham Ashcraft who projects in the top half of the pitching board despite not being out to what anyone would think of as a strong start to his MLB career. Ashcraft made 19 starts last year and pitched to a 4.89 ERA with a 4.09 xFIP and 15.3% strikeout rate in 105 innings. This season the righty has made 15 starts and thrown just 75.2 innings while pitching to a 6.66 ERA and 4.70 xFIP and striking out just 17.1%. Ashcraft has not been a good pitcher, his middling fantasy projection is more indicative of the lower-end nature of today’s pitching slate than anything about his individual upside, but the matchup against the Nationals is not a terrible one for clean innings. Ashcraft is overpriced at $8,100 on FanDuel, he has more appeal as a cheap SP2 dart throw for $6,100 on the DraftKings slate but is not out of play on the blue site. Washington answers the challenge with a lousy lineup that includes one good hitter in Lane Thomas. The outfielder has 14 home runs with a .208 ISO on 40.9% hard hits and a 9.5% barrel rate while striking out at a 25.8% clip. Thomas has created runs 29% better than average, he is a good-not-great hitter in a terrible lineup that makes him look like a star. Luis Garcia is a mix-and-match infielder who hits near the top of the lineup on most nights. Jeimer Candelario has 12 home runs on the season, 11 of which have come against right-handed pitching. Candelario is second on the team with a 4.31 in our home run model, Joey Meneses leads the way at 4.38, neither has much appeal at the plate but they are options in stacks of Nationals. Dominic Smith is slashing .264/.329/.337 with an 84 WRC+ on the season, he is projected to hit cleanup and comes cheap at first base. Keibert Ruiz is an everyday catcher who has power behind the plate for cheap prices but is still growing into the MLB role. Corey Dickerson, CJ Abrams, and Derek Hill round out the projected lineup in typical low-end form, they are all well below league-average options for run creation.
Play: Reds bats/stacks, Josiah Gray as a mid-level option, Graham Ashcraft low-expectation value darts
Update Notes:
Texas Rangers (-106/5.08) @ Boston Red Sox (-102/5.02)
The Red Sox are hosting Texas in what looks like a shootout with both teams carrying totals of more than five runs on the board in Vegas. Texas has stumbled somewhat in recent weeks, but they are still one of the top lineups in the sport. The team is facing righty Brayan Bello who has a 3.08 ERA and 3.84 xFIP with a 21.8% strikeout rate on the season. Bello has been consistently good throughout the season, he allowed five runs on April 17th in his season debut and has not given up more than three in a start since then, and more than two only twice. Bello has been working deep into games, he is on a run of five straight quality starts but he does not have massive strikeout potential. The righty is carrying a projection that sits in the lower section of the board with the Rangers’ stout bats winning out in our model, but it would not surprise to see him succeed over six fairly clean innings tonight. For $8,500 on either site Bello can definitely be deployed in small doses, it should be easy to get beyond the field’s exposure on either site. Marcus Semien and Corey Seager cost $5,900/$3,600 and $6,200/$4,100 as a double-play duo atop the lineup. The hard-hitting pair leads Texas into battle on most nights, they have power and excellent run-creation skills but come at a high price around the industry. When stacking Rangers, it makes sense to have at least one, if not both, of the infielders in a lineup. Nathaniel Lowe remains an inexpensive option at first base despite hitting third or fifth in this lineup on a daily basis. Lowe has hit nine home runs while creating runs 21% better than average this season, he projects well tonight but has just a 3.61 in our home run model. Adolis Garcia has knocked 21 long balls this season with a 126 WRC+ in 371 plate appearances, Josh Jung follows him in the lineup with 17 home runs and a 123 WRC+ in his 354 opportunities. The power core for Texas runs through those two spots on most nights, with Jonah Heim and Ezequiel Duran providing upside for more in the next two spots. The catcher and the productive multi-position option are easy to afford to help offset the cost of rostering the top of the Rangers lineup. The same is true for Leody Taveras from the ninth spot, while Travis Jankowski is more of a mix-in option at a cheap price.
The Red Sox will deal with veteran righty Jon Gray, who is having an effective season on the mound with a 3.21 ERA but a 4.46 xFIP under the surface. Gray has pitched to a 21.1% strikeout rate and walked 7.8% with a 1.08 WHIP this season and he has been relatively good at limiting home run power. The righty has allowed a 3.18% home run rate on 6.7% barrels and 35% hard hits this season, he was similarly good at checking power last year but struck out more hitters and was more reliable for MLB DFS scoring. Gray does not project for a great score but, like Bello, he may have more legs than the model is giving him credit for on a weak pitching night. Darts are justifiable with the veteran righty at $8,900 on both sites, but there are better value options around the industry. The Red Sox have a heavily left-handed top end in Fenway Park against Gray tonight, with Jarren Duran projected to lead off ahead of an excellent trio that includes Alex Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida, and Rafael Devers. The four lefties are a group with very good hit tools, average to outstanding power, and excellent run creation skills, they are an easy stack directly off the top of the Red Sox batting order when looking to Boston bats. Duran has 15 stolen bases and a .360 on-base percentage while creating runs 30% better than average and makes a good leadoff hitter ahead of Verdugo and Yoshida, both of whom have good power and great on-base skills. Verdugo has a 121 WRC+ and Yoshida leadas the team at 134 in his first year in MLB. Devers has 20 home runs and a .246 ISO, both of which are easily team-leading marks. He has dipped in overall production this season but remains a deadly-good power hitter. Justin Turner is a professional bat on the right side, the veteran has shown good power and a still-sturdy hit tool this season and costs just $3,900/$3,300. Triston Casas is yet another left-handed bat with power potential in this lineup. The first baseman has nine home runs with a 96 WRC+ over 277 plate appearances but shows signs of life with regularity. Casas has an excellent contact profile and walk rate combination that suggest a very dangerous hitter is just waiting to break out. Christian Arroyo, David Hamilton, and Connor Wong round out the Red Sox lineup as mix-in options.
Play: Rangers bats/stacks, Red Sox bats/stacks, minor shares of lower-mid pitching options are OK on either side
Update Notes:
Atlanta Braves (-162/5.66) @ Cleveland Guardians (+149/4.45)
The Braves are facing a pitcher who has given up six, eight, and six earned runs in his last three starts and has a 6.18 ERA with a 5.53 xFIP over 12 starts and 62.2 innings this season. Cal Quantrill is a target on the mound for the excellent Atlanta lineup, he has not given up a ton of home runs in his career, but he is easily gettable for run creation and has the Braves at a healthy 5.66-run total with a near slate-leading projection once again. Quantrill has kept home runs to 2.46% on 7.7% barrels this season, last year he was at 2.73% on 7.5% barrels while pitching to a 3.38 ERA and 4.39 xFIP in a much better season. In 2021 he had a 2.89 ERA but a 4.43 xFIP while allowing almost identical numbers for power. Quantrill has always been a low-end strikeout option but this year he has dipped from 16.6% to just 12.3%, there does not seem to be a good reason to include him at $5,600/$6,900. The Braves everyday lineup is back in action tonight, they are playable from 1-9 as usual. Ronald Acuna Jr. is the first player in baseball history to do what he is doing for home runs and stolen bases before the All-Star game, which is a somewhat arbitrary midseason target. Acuna has been outstanding by any measure with 21 home runs and 41 stolen bases. Ozzie Albies has a 38.4% hard-hit rate but has crushed 22 home runs as a second baseman, he is a top option at his position and is totally worth his asking price around the industry, it is nice to see Albies getting the respect he deserves after we spent the first two months of the season calling for it. Austin Riley slots in tat third for $5,600/$3,600, he has 15 home runs and a .182 ISO with plenty of room for more. Sean Murphy should be back in the lineup, he has 14 home runs and is a top option at catcher any day he plays. Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario are crushing the game from the six and seven spots in the lineup, they have combined for 31 home runs and they are both well above average for run creation ahead of the best eighth and ninth hitters in the game, Orlando Arcia and Michael Harris II. The odds appear strong that the Braves ridiculous lineup rolls on, or over you, in tonight’s matchup.
Cleveland will be facing righty Mike Soroka in the fourth start of his return. Soroka’s results have been mixed in his three starts, worked six innings in the first and third outings, striking out just three while allowing four runs on five hits to the Athletics in his first start then punching out seven Marlins while giving up three runs on six hits but two home runs in the third start. In between, the righty had a clunker of an outing in which he coughed up five earned runs on seven hits, including two home runs, while striking out only two and walking four. Overall, Soroka sits at a 6.89 ERA and 4.82 xFIP with a 16.7% strikeout rate and an 8.3% walk rate and has allowed 11.5% barrels and a 6.94% home run rate in the tiny sample. The righty does not seem overly worthwhile, even against the weak Guardians, but he projects into the middle of the board in our model with Cleveland’s near-total lack of talent this season. Soroka costs $6,700/$9,300, he is bizarrely mispriced on FanDuel but is playable as an SP2 dart in small doses on the DraftKings slate. The Guardians are an underwhelming option even in this matchup. The Cleveland lineup opens with disappointment personified in Steven Kwan and Amed Rosario, who have been three percent and 13% worse than average for run creation as table setters all year long. The duo has been a big part of the problem for Cleveland, the power and extra-base hits from options like Jose Ramirez who follow are meaningless if there is no one on base to drive in. Ramirez has 13 home runs with a 128 WRC+ as the only positive contributor in the projected lineup that is missing Josh Naylor who is nursing a sore wrist and may sit out again tonight. Josh Bell and Andres Gimenez have WRC+ marks of 91 and 93 with eight and six home runs respectively. Gimenez has added 11 stolen bases but he has been minimally impactful for DFS purposes this season. Tyler Freeman, Will Brennan, Myles Straw, and Bo Naylor are low-end options late in the lineup, Naylor offers mid-range power as a cheap catcher as the most playable of the bunch.
Play: Braves bats/stacks enthusiastically. Again.
Update Notes:
Kansas City Royals (+227/3.30) @ Minnesota Twins (-253/5.32)
The leading pitcher of the day with a bullet is Twins starter Pablo Lopez. The veteran righty has been very good through most of this season and he has the lousy Royals lineup checked to just 3.30 implied runs on the board in Vegas. Lopez has a significant upside for strikeouts in this matchup, the righty is working at 29.8% for the season with a 4.24 ERA and 3.58 xFIP over 17 starts and 102 innings in a nice step forward with his new team in 2023. Lopez has always been solid but he has turned into something more with some tweaks from the Twins’ coaching staff this season, unlocking another level of strikeouts in his stuff. Lopez will be facing a Royals lineup that is carrying a strikeout rate above 26% in its projected form, he is easily the top projected pitcher of the day for $10,100/$10,800 and should be played aggressively even if he is popular on this slate. The Royals are a weak option but Lopez is not unhittable. The talent for Kansas City lies in the top few bats, the lineup breaks early and deeply for talent with only Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr., Sal Perez, Nick Pratto, and MJ Melendez as focus options in the projected version of the batting order. Witt is a potential star who has 13 home runs and 25 stolen bases but can’t seem to get on base enough to boost his WRC+ above the waterline. Perez is a star catcher with loads of power, Garcia has a 108 WRC+ and a sturdy hit tool over 213 opportunities, Pratto offers a bit of everything but still strikes out too much, and Melendez makes great contact but has not delivered statistically. Kyle Isbel, Michael Massey, Drew Waters, and Nicky Lopez round out the lineup, Massey is the most playable in the bunch, the lefty has four home runs in 207 plate appearances this season.
The Twins free-swinging lineup will be facing righty Alec Marsh in the second start of his career. Marsh is a fairly well-regarded pitching prospect at age 25, he did not enjoy his debut against the Dodgers last week. Marsh lasted four innings in the start, yielding five runs on six hits including two home runs while walking four and striking out five. The righty is in a much better spot to find success in this matchup, the Twins are not a pushover, the team does have power at the plate but they strike out far more aggressively than the Dodgers do and find far lower-end results when they connect. Marsh does not project well in our model, but there is a touch of additional potential in the matchup for $5,000/$5,800, if he manages six innings against a projected lineup that has a 28.3% strikeout rate it would be strange to not see a good handful of strikeouts in his pocket as well. The Twins are also in play, the team is carrying an inflated 5.32-run implied total in Vegas and they have several excellent options for power. Carlos Correa has 11 home runs and a .183 ISO with a 42.9% hard-hit rate and an 11.4% barrel rate this season despite any struggles. Edouard Julien has an 11.7% barrel rate with 41.6% hard hits and a .254/.336/.443 triple-slash while creating runs 17% better than average for just $3,000/$2,900 at second base. Byron Buxton is an underpriced star who has scuffled his way to 15 home runs but just a .216/.306/.457 triple-slash this season. Buxton for $5,400/$3,500 sounds like a buy against a rookie hurler from the Royals. Alex Kirilloff has four home runs and a 125 WRC+ over 189 plate appearances on the left side, Max Kepler has hit a dozen home runs in just 210 plate appearances but costs just $2,800 in the outfield on both sites, and Jose Miranda provides a good hit tool but only limited power from the sixth spot in the projected batting order. Slugger Joey Gallo slots in and more than makes up for any power deficit from Miranda, he also covers the strikeout rate for two to three normal players. Ryan Jeffers and Michael A. Taylor are mix-in options if one is building numerous stacks of Twins in a fairly good spot tonight.
Play: Pablo Lopez aggressively, Alec Marsh value darts, Twins bats/stacks as a mid-level option
Update Notes:
Chicago Cubs (-146/4.69) @ Milwaukee Brewers (+134/3.91)
With a 4.69-run implied total and Justin Steele on the mound, the Cubs are looking like strong favorites in their game in Milwaukee tonight. The team will be facing limited righty Adrian Houser, who has a 14.8% strikeout rate with a 3.88 ERA and 4.52 xFIP over 46.1 innings and eight starts this season. Houser has induced just a 6.4% swinging-strike rate while allowing a 42.1% hard-hit rate but he is relatively effective at keeping the ball in the yard, which can limit the home run potential for the already homer-challenged Cubs. Chicago’s projected lineup is the clear option between the two choices, Houser does not rate for many shares at $6,500/$7,500, he projects in the lower half of the pitching board today. The Cubs are only a moderately interesting stack however, the team does not hit for a lot of power under normal circumstances, with several underperforming veterans and a few players out of the lineup. Mike Tauchman has been good for getting on base but his WRC+ has already dipped to just 97 and he is a limited quad-A talent at the top of the lineup. Nico Hoerner has 19 stolen bases and a 99 WRC+, he produced runs six percent ahead of the curve while swiping 20 bases in 2022, there is upside in including Hoerner as a leadoff option in Cubs stacks. Ian Happ has created runs 17% better than average while getting on base at a .377 clip this season but the power has been mostly out with just seven home runs. Seiya Suzuki has six homers with a .145 ISO and a 101 WRC+. Cody Bellinger has dipped since his hot start, he has seven home runs and a still-good 111 WRC+ bit his barrels and hard-hit rate are down and he has not delivered much since returning. Dansby Swanson has 10 home runs and a .152 ISO with a 110 WRC+ but we are used to seeing more from the shortstop. Swanson was expected to drive offense for this team with his good blend of power and speed but he has not managed to do much despite a solid 13% barrel rate and a 40.8% hard-hit rate. Jared Young, Christopher Morel, and Tucker Barnhart close out the lineup. Morel is clearly the interesting name in the group, he ripped a dozen early home runs right after his return to the lineup and now sits at 15 after 178 plate appearances. For $4,900/$3,900 Morel offers power potential at the plate if nothing else.
The Brewers will face the left-handed Steele, who has been very good in 15 starts and 85.1 innings this season. The southpaw has a 22.3% strikeout rate with a 5.6% walk rate and he has allowed a microscopic 0.88% home run rate on 5.4% barrels. Steele has pitched to a 2.43 ERA though his 3.83 xFIP is a bit more telling and will probably be closer to the normalized result over time. Steele has allowed just 30.7% hard hits and 85 mph of exit velocity on average this season, he has been outstanding at limiting power and run creation and he faces a low-end opponent in the Brewers, whose projected lineup he has in check at just 3.91 implied runs. Steele is a high-quality option who projects well on this slate for $10,300/$9,700, his FanDuel price is cheap relative to the other options tonight, making him one of our favored plays but also one that is likely to be popular. The Milwaukee lineup loses a bit with Christian Yelich in a same-handed matchup, but they focus on platoon-based right-handed power for better or worse in this situation. Milwaukee sits 26th with a collective 92 WRC+ against lefties this season. Their 26.5% strikeout rate in the split is as targetable as their collective .145 ISO is non-threatening. William Contreras climbs to the leadoff spot in one version of the projected lineup. The catcher has a .172 ISO and 109 WRC+ with nine home runs and he has been 59% better than average for run creation with a .289 ISO in 88 plate appearances against lefties this season. Yelich drops to second in the projected batting order, he is cheap at $4,500/$3,500 but that is partly due to a 75 WRC+ and .100 ISO in 87 plate appearances against same-handed pitching this season. Yelich is an option in Brewers stacks but not someone to go out of one’s way for otherwise. Willy Adames has 122 home runs this season but does not offer much beyond right-handed power at shortstop. Owen Miller has been a productive hitter but has already slipped to just 98 WRC+ in his 245 plate appearances. Blake Perkins, Andruw Monasterio, Joey Wiemer, Victor Caratini, and Brice Turang slot in to finish off the lineup. Perkins is a low-end talent with two home runs and two steals in 85 plate appearances as a post-hype former second-round pick, Wiemer has 11 home runs and 11 steals and is the most interesting name in the bunch, and Caratini can offer oddball power behind the plate at a cheap price.
Play: Justin Steele as a strong option, only minor shares of anything else
Update Notes:
Toronto Blue Jays (-113/4.65) @ Chicago White Sox (+104/4.45)
Veteran righty Lance Lynn faces the Blue Jays in what seems like a neverending series of semi-playable pitchers and hitting situations in all four corners. The Blue Jays have righty Jose Berrios on the mound, he and Lynn are projected within 1.5 fantasy points of one another but they are priced somewhat differently. Lynn checks in at $8,400 on both sites while Berrios is a $9,200/$9,600 option against the slightly weaker of the two lineups. Toronto has a 4.65-run total and Chicago is at 4.45 runs as slight home underdogs, which puts all four sides of this one somewhat in play. Lynn has a 26.9% strikeout rate but a 6.47 ERA this season. His 3.87 xFIP is a major difference from his ERA however, it still stands as the more honest number though the actual truth may be somewhere in between. Lynn has a significant ceiling that was on display in a huge strikeout performance and he still manages to book fantasy points on a regular basis in most outings, but he has been mortal this season and has an inflated 5.09% home run rate on 10.9% barrels over 17 starts. Berrios, meanwhile, has a 3.11% home run rate on 9.0% barrels, an improvement over the past two seasons where he was a bit more targetable for power. The righty has a 22.7% strikeout rate with a 3.74 ERA and 4.00 xFIP over 101 innings in 17 starts this season. Both pitchers are options at their respective prices on a short slate, neither is overly likely to draw significant popularity but neither is entirely safe. Between the two, we slightly prefer Lynn, despite a lower projection, given his lower cost, perceptions of a worse matchup, and a clearly higher strikeout upside.
The Blue Jays bats can absolutely be utilized against the veteran. Lynn has allowed too much power already this season, he will face a low-strikeout group with tons of home run potential atop the Toronto lineup in George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero, who will likely be split up once again high-quality veteran lefty Brandon Belt. The four hitters are playable as a stack right off the top or in heavy rotation through an abundance of Blue Jays stacks. Springer has a 107 WRC+, Bichette leads the team at 134, and Guerrero has a 124 and hit his 13th home run of the season last night. Belt has not hit for much power but his run-creation mark is also still strong at 129 in 219 plate appearances. For $3,000/$2,700, Belt remains a bargain with a high ceiling hitting third in this lineup. Matt Chapman has outstanding pop at third base, he has made premium contact regularly this season with an 18.3% barrel rate and 59.2% hard hits while creating runs 20% better than average. Chapman strikes out aggressively, but he is worth the effort in stacks given his potential to drive the ball against this pitcher in the right spot. Daulton Varsho is similarly unreliable but powerful, he hits from the left side and has knocked 12 long balls and added 11 stolen bases to his MLB DFS point-scoring tally but is slashing just .221/.287/.383 on the whole. Varsho is the first player in the projected batting order who does not get above the league average for run creation, he sits 15% below the waterline so far this year. Whit Merrifield has been exactly at league average for run creation over his 308 opportunities, adding 19 stolen bases for a cheap $3,800/$3,000 at second base or in the outfield. Danny Jansen and Kevin Kiermaier close out the lineup as low-end options. On the other side, the White Sox offer up Andrew Benintendi and Tim Anderson from the top of the projected batting order. The scuffling duo should be looked at in either-or form for the time being, they are not producing well enough to justify two lineup spots, Anderson, in particular, has shown next to nothing at the plate this season. Luis Robert Jr. has 25 home runs and a .304 ISO and costs $5,600/$3,900, he leads the team with an 11.15 in our home run model this evening. Eloy Jimenez has a 9.49 to land third behind Robert and seventh-hitter Jake Burger, who sits at a 10.21 in the home run model. Jimenez is a star outfielder for just $4,500/$3,300 tonight. Andrew Vaughn has been good for run creation at 111 WRC+ with a dozen home runs in 358 plate appearances. Vaughn has made robust contact, he has a 48% hard-hit rate on the season and strikes out at just a 19% clip. Rookie Oscar Colas is projected to hit for significant power, he lands late in the lineup at just $2,200/$2,000 in the outfield but he has not done much in 88 plate appearances with just one home run and a 49 WRC+ so far. Zach Remillard rounds out the projected batting order at a cheap price.
Play: four corners, Lance Lynn, Jose Berrios, Blue Jays bats/stacks, White Sox bats/stacks in that order
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Angels (+168/3.65) @ San Diego Padres (-184/4.96)
The matchup between the Angels and Padres is a bit of a less exciting pairing tonight, with Seth Lugo taking the mound for the home team and Patrick Sandoval going for the visitors. Lugo has made 11 starts this season, pitching to a 3.59 ERA and 3.70 xFIP with a 21.9% strikeout rate and five percent walk rate. The veteran righty has been a hybrid pitcher who has worked between the bullpen and rotation throughout his career but has worked exclusively as a starter this season. For $7,900/$8,600 Lugo is not off the board, he carried a mid-range projection into the night at a fair cost and what should not be outrageous ownership against an Angels team that will be without Mike Trout for the foreseeable future. Lugo has a bit of potential in the form of clean innings with a shot at bonuses, and he has the Angels at just a 3.65-run implied total while his team is heavily favored at 4.96 runs. Lugo is a playable part on this slate, Sandoval may be a sneaky option on the other side at $6,900/$7,400 price. The southpaw has a 4.57 ERA and 4.48 xFIP with a 17.9% strikeout rate over 80.2 innings in 15 starts this season but he could have potential for his price. Sandoval typically keeps the ball in the yard reliably with just a 1.65% home run rate on 33.5% hard hits this season and a 1.25% rate on 33.9% over 148.2 innings in 27 starts last year, and he had more strikeout upside in each of the past two seasons at 23.7% and 25.9%. He has induced a still-good 12.1% swinging-strike rate this season, though that is down from 13.3% last year and 15.2% the season before. For the cheap prices on a short slate one could do worse than throwing a few darts in Sandoval’s direction despite a challenging matchup at the top end of the Padres batting order.
San Diego is the preferred option at the plate, but the Los Angeles stack is probably in play for small shares against Lugo despite a low implied total. Mickey Moniak has a 10.52 in our home run model as a high-end leadoff option from the left side. Moniak has nine home runs and a .339 ISO with a 16.7% barrel rate in his 124 opportunities this season. Taylor Ward is a roller coaster projected to hit second, he has both on-base skills and power on the right night for a cheap price ahead of superstar Shohei Ohtani, who will hopefully be in the lineup tonight. Ohtani left last night’s game with a fingernail or blister issue on his pitching hand, depending on who you ask. The star may or may not land in tonight’s lineup, the Angels would be far off the board if he does not play and the low total in Vegas may be suggestive of that possibility. Ohtani is always an option if he starts, he is pricey but has a 12.57 in our home run model. Mike Moustakas and Hunter Renfroe have lefty-righty power in the heart of the lineup, Renfroe is the far better player at this point, he has 15 home runs this season and has hit 75 since the start of 2021. Matt Thaiss, Luis Rengifo, Eduardo Escobar, and David Fletcher round out the lineup, Thaiss has playable power as a cheap catcher, Rengifo and Escobar offer the same in the infield. On the Padres side of things very little has changed, despite the fact that the team designated Nelson Cruz for assignment, potentially ending the veteran’s career a bit early. San Diego’s lineup should open with Ha-Seong Kim who has been good in the leadoff spot and has 10 home runs and 14 stolen bases in a better year than we have seen from him at the MLB level so far. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto are superstars and are worth whatever their prices become from day to day. Both players hit for phenomenal power and create runs far above the league average, Tatis sits at 135 WRC+ and Soto is at 153 for the season. Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts are discounted after struggling through much of the season, they remain high-priority options when stacking Padres. Gary Sanchez, Jake Cronenworth, Brandon Dixon, and Trent Grisham round out the lineup as mix-and-match options.
Play: Padres bats/stacks, Seth Lugo value darts, Pablo Sandoval value darts, minor shares of Angels if Ohtani plays
Update Notes:
Seattle Mariners (+149/3.78) @ San Francisco Giants (-163/4.82)
Veteran righty Alex Cobb is a bit of a wrinkle on this slate at $8,600/$9,100, he projects just into the middle of the board on a short slate for pitchers but has the high-strikeout Mariners capped at just 3.78 implied runs in Vegas. Cobb would normally be an easier option but he was limited to just 79 pitches last week in his first start back from a three-week trip to the injured list. The potential for another short outing is the only thing truly casting doubt on what otherwise looks like a good spot. The projected Mariners lineup has a 25.5% strikeout rate and Cobb is an effective pitcher who has a 3.12 ERA with a 3.33 xFIP and a 21.9% strikeout rate over 83.2 innings in 15 starts. The righty rarely gets into trouble, his walk rate sits at just 5.8% and he has limited launch angle to less than three degrees in each of the past three seasons while keeping home runs to below 1.75%. Cobb is a good right-handed starter, if he is unpopular on tonight’s slate it makes sense to book additional shares against the free-swinging Seattle lineup. A few shots of Mariners as a hedge position would not be the worst plan however, even with Cobb’s ability to limit damage in the short term, if he comes out of the game early they will have a shot against the bullpen. Seattle’s lineup opens with playable correlated scoring shortstop JP Crawford ahead of star outfielder Julio Rodriguez who is up to 13 home runs and 20 steals with a 106 WRC+ in what looks like a better season already. Rodriguez needs to pull his hit tool together, but his counting stats are highly valuable for MLB DFS scoring. Ty France is another good correlated scoring option who brings a bit of individual potential to the plate as well at a fair price. Teoscar Hernandez has major power with 15 home runs in the books already this season, he hits ahead of Cal Raleigh who has hit 11 homers in his 277 chances. Both players strike out aggressively and can contribute to the idea of upside for Cobb. Eugenio Suarez, Jarred Kelenic, MIke Ford, and Jose Caballero round out the lineup as playable parts. The first three all offer power but hefty strikeout rates, Ford is a quad-A talent while the other two are far more realistic long-term options. Caballero is a light-hitting infielder who can get on base and turn the lineup over as a moderately appealing wraparound option if skipping Crawford.
The Giants are facing lefty Tommy Milone with a 4.82-run implied total on their side in Vegas and a healthy amount of skepticism about the viability of Milone on the mound. The southpaw has made one start this season, working 4.2 innings against the Rockies and allowing a home run while striking out three and walking two back on April 14th, he has a 6.19 xFIP and 4.47 ERA with a 21.7% strikeout rate as a 36-year-old in 50.1 innings and 11 starts at AAA this season. Milone is a non-option on the mound. Austin Slater lands in the leadoff spot with a lefty on the bump, he has a .347/.405/.458 triple-slash with a 141 WRC+ over 79 plate appearances after missing much of the season’s first half. Slater has been a productive cheap bat for DFS purposes, he hit seven home runs and stole 12 bases in 325 plate appearances as a part-timer last season and had a 12/15 season in 306 tries the year before. Wilmer Flores has always been good against lefties, he has an 11.92 to lead the team in our home run model tonight. Flores is cheap at $2,500/$2,700 with eligibility at first and third base on FanDuel. JD Davis follows close on Flores’ heels with an 11.07 in the home run model and Michael Conforto lands at an 11.77 despite a same-handed matchup, Milone is a non-threatening lefty on the mound, everyone in the San Francisco lineup looks at least a little good against him. Patrick Bailey has rolled over 135 plate appearances, the backstop has a .302/.331/.516 triple-slash with five home runs so far. Conforto slots in fifth but may hit elsewhere in the lineup, he and fellow lefty power bat Mike Yastrzemski are playable from anywhere they fall in the confirmed batting order. Luis Matos is a hit-and-speed outfield prospect getting a shot, he has a 69 WRC+ over 69 plate appearances. Casey Schmitt and Brandon Crawford are infielders to round out the lineup at cheap prices.
Play: Giants bats/stacks, Alex Cobb
Update Notes:
New York Mets (-102/4.52) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-106/4.57)
The game in the desert presents a challenge for Mets righty Kodai Senga, while Diamondbacks lefty Tommy Henry looks more targetable on the mound. Henry has a 4.15% home run rate allowed this season, though that number has been dropping and his hard-hit rate sits at just 30.5% for the season. The contact-oriented southpaw has a 17% strikeout rate and has pitched to a 4.08 ERA but a 5.21 xFIP is probably the more honest number. Henry is not a great option at $7,000/$8,200, success is not entirely off the board, he has delivered a few good outings this season but numbers look firmly on the Mets side of things with Henry occupying the cellar in our pitching projections. Senga, meanwhile, is facing the low-strikeout high-scoring Diamondbacks in their full form this evening, which could cause him issues. The righty has been very good at striking hitters out this year at 28.5%, but his 13% walk rate is highly problematic when things go pear-shaped. Senga has a 3.53 ERA and 4.01 xFIP with a 40.8% hard-hit rate, he walks a fine line for trouble but can post high-end DFS starts and should be in a fair share of lineups with just a $10,000/$9,700 price tag, even against a tough opponent that has a 4.57-run implied total. The Diamondbacks and Mets lineups are both playable against these starters, we favor the Mets against the lower-end contact-oriented Henry.
New York’s projected batting order opens in typical form with excellent leadoff lefty outfielder Brandon Nimmo and his robust .280/.375/.466 triple-slash. Nimmo has a 136 WRC+ and 13 home runs with a .186 ISO and 46.9% hard-hit rate this season, he is good for both correlated scoring and individual production. Tommy Pham leaps to second in the projected batting order, the veteran outfielder has made outstanding contact all season and he has nine home runs and nine steals in the books in just 212 opportunities. Francisco Lindor has 17 home runs with 11 stolen bases and a 110 WRC+, if we ignore his triple-slash it almost looks like he has had a good season. Pete Alonso has 25 home runs, he was quick to reach 20 but then hit an injury and stalled out a bit. The fantastic first baseman is cheap in this matchup at just $5,200/$4,100, he has a massive 19.52 in our home run model to lead the entire day. Starling Marte has a 5.50 in the home run model, he has not hit for any power this season but has stolen 22 bases in a down year. Francisco Alvarez has an 8.62 in the home run model with 14 in the ledger for the season in a terrific first half for a rookie catcher. Jeff McNeil is a slap-hitter who has not been lucky enough to bolster his numbers this season, Mark Canha and Bretty Baty close out the lineup as high-quality playable parts. Canha is a good right-handed veteran with mid-range power and Baty is a premium rookie on the left side of the plate. The hometown Diamondbacks have a projected lineup with Geraldo Perdomo in the leadoff role. At a .385 on-base percentage, Perdomo is a great option to set the table for the team’s power bats if he can sustain that level in this role with regularity. Perdomo has nine stolen bases in 257 up and down plate appearances this season. Ketel Marte has mashed his way to a .285/.365/.502 triple-slash with 15 home runs and six stolen bases, he has a 133 WRC+ and has been a terrific option at second base this season. Marte sets a good pace for the lineup at a 16.4% strikeout rate with a 10.1% walk rate, everyone from 1-5 in the projected batting order is at or below 19.5% strikeouts, which is the number at which we find star outfielder Corbin Carroll. Over 329 plate appearances the breakout star has 18 home runs and 24 stolen bases, he costs $6,000/$4,000 tonight and belongs in most Diamondbacks stacks. Christian Walker is a terrific power hitter who does not strike out aggressively like many of his peers, he is underpriced at $5,400/$3,100. Evan Longoria has 11 home runs while slashing .250/.318/.553 in a part-time role over 148 plate appearances, if he is in the lineup he is easily playable. Alek Thomas, Gabriel Moreno, and Jake McCarthy are skilled mix-and-match options late in the batting order.
Play: Kodai Senga, Mets bats/stacks, Diamondbacks bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Pittsburgh Pirates (+218/3.55) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-243/5.58)
The final game of the slate has the Pirates and Dodgers in another mismatched battle that will have two rookies take the mound to start the game. Hometown starter Bobby Miller has looked very good in his first seven starts, he has a 21.7% strikeout rate and a 4.23 ERA with a 4.05 xFIP while limiting power to just a 1.24% home run rate on 5.5% barrels in the tiny sample. Miller is a highly regarded young prospect who had a 30.5% strikeout rate in 91 AA innings last season. The righty has the low-end Pirates at just a 3.55-run implied total and he projects like a good option at $8,300/$9,900, though his price could stand to be slightly lower. Miller is likely to be a bit popular for the money, but he is most likely going to be worth the weight of ownership and salary in what looks like a good opportunity to book a win. The Pirates lineup opens with Andrew McCutchen who is slashing .271/.383/.430 with a 124 WRC+ and 10 home runs on the season. McCutchen has a 44.5% hard-hit rate and has struck out 19.9% of the time while walking at a robust 15.1% clip, the veteran former MVP is always an option when stacking Pirates. Bryan Reynolds is the team’s star, he is joined in the lineup by Henry Davis who hopes to earn that mantle as well in the near future. The team’s premium rookie makes for a good third man in a stack at the top of the lineup. Davis has a home run and two stolen bases in his 60 plate appearances, Reynolds has eight of each in 308 chances but has created runs 16% better than average. Carlos Santana has power in infrequent doses for just $3,000/$2,900. Jack Suwinski is the more regular reliable option, he has 18 home runs in 277 tries with an 18.1% barrel rate and 50% hard hits on the season. Nick Gonzales, Jared Triolo, Tucupita Marcano, and Jason Delay close out the lineup in low-end form.
The Dodgers are unfairly matched against rookie Osvaldo Bido who has not been bad, but also really has not been very good, in his first four starts. Bido has a 4.74 ERA and 4.58 xFIP with a 1.47 WHIP and just a 20.2% strikeout rate in his 19 innings, none of those numbers seem likely to improve tonight. The righty has allowed just a 4.8% barrel rate and has limited home runs to only 1.12% in the small sample, so he has a modicum of hope for clean innings, but this is not an advisable play for MLB DFS purposes against the low-strikeout high-octane Dodgers. Bido costs $7,400/$7,200, there are better value plays available on this slate. Mookie Betts is a stud who fills three positions for $4,400 on the FanDuel slate and slots in at shortstop or outfield on DraftKings for $6,500. Betts has 23 home runs on the season with a 152 WRC+, he strikes out at a 17% clip and barrels 12.5% of his batted-ball events and is a star worthy of a similar salary to Ronald Acuna and Shohei Ohtani. Freddie Freeman costs $6,100/$4,200, he is also well worth the salary as one of baseball’s best first basemen. Freeman has 14 home runs with 11 stolen bases and an outstanding triple-slash this season and has created runs 47% better than average. Will Smith, Max Muncy, and JD Martinez offer a nearly unrivaled righty-lefty-righty core of power, only Smith limits his strikeouts but all three are great options in this matchup in Dodgers stacks. David Peralta is a good left-handed veteran hitter who falls into this lineup consistently at cheap prices and low popularity, he has a 100 WRC+ on the season while slashing .286/.321/.414. Jason Heyward, James Outman, and Miguel Rojas close out the projected lineup, Hewyard and Outman are appealing lefty hitters with power in the outfield in stacks of Dodgers hitters.
Play: Dodgers bats/stacks, Bobby Miller
Update Notes:
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