NFL DFS – Main Slate Optimizer Groups & Stack Rankings + Game Notes (complete) – Week 18

This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.

This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video

All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io

Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning

Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.

2024 Week 18 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings

The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.

TEAM	OPP	FD$	FDpRank	FDvalRank	DK$	DkpRank	DKvalRank
DET	MIN	$32,200	1	2	$0	0	0
TB	NO	$31,300	2	1	$27,800	1	4
MIN	DET	$32,000	3	4	$0	0	0
ATL	CAR	$29,300	4	3	$25,500	2	1
IND	JAC	$27,700	5	5	$24,100	3	3
ARI	SF	$27,500	6	7	$22,700	4	2
LAC	LV	$28,700	7	9	$23,900	6	7
SEA	LAR	$29,100	8	15	$23,900	5	6
SF	ARI	$27,400	9	13	$21,700	9	5
NYJ	MIA	$28,800	10	18	$25,100	7	14
LV	LAC	$26,000	11	8	$22,700	8	10
NYG	PHI	$26,700	12	16	$22,600	11	11
GB	CHI	$28,000	13	20	$25,300	12	22
CHI	GB	$25,600	14	14	$22,900	10	13
JAC	IND	$26,300	15	17	$22,800	14	18
DEN	KC	$26,600	16	19	$22,200	15	16
MIA	NYJ	$28,500	17	24	$24,100	13	21
WAS	DAL	$28,800	18	26	$25,100	16	24
TEN	HOU	$22,800	19	10	$18,800	18	8
CAR	ATL	$23,200	20	12	$20,200	17	12
LAR	SEA	$20,100	21	6	$17,900	21	15
DAL	WAS	$24,600	22	23	$19,600	20	20
NE	BUF	$23,000	23	21	$19,600	19	19
PHI	NYG	$20,600	24	11	$15,900	22	9
NO	TB	$22,300	25	25	$16,500	23	17
KC	DEN	$20,900	26	22	$18,200	25	23
BUF	NE	$22,900	27	27	$19,500	26	25
HOU	TEN	$26,700	28	28	$23,200	24	26

Week 18 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups

Overview

Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.

Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.

DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options

Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.

Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.

Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.

FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.

Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.

Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.

DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules

This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.

QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)

Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements

Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.

Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)

We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.

Sunday Updates

Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.

NFL DFS Week 18 Features & FREE Projections

Construction Concept

Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.

Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 18

The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.

The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.

Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when a situation has an extremely highly projected running back that does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.

Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams

Arizona Cardinals

Game Total: 43.0 / ARI -4.5 (23.75 imp)

Plays: 44.76% rush / 55.24% pass / 22.1 ppg / 5.3 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 24.3 ppg / 7.14% sack / 2.29% int

Key Player: Kyler Murray

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Carter, Zay Jones, DeeJay Dallas (on/off), Greg Dortch, Elijah Higgins, Zach Pascal (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Jauan Jennings, Isaac Guerendo, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, Patrick Taylor Jr. (on/off), Chris Conley, Jacob Cowing

Game Notes: Kyler Murray earns $750,000 with 50 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown

Quarterback

Kyler Murray slots in as a solid option as QB2 by points and value on DraftKings and QB4/3 on the FanDuel slate. Murray has two top tier options in the passing attack and will face a defense that has allowed more than 24 points per game on the season. The quarterback averages 7.1 yards per pass attempt but has been limited to 17 touchdowns while throwing 11 interceptions, adding another five scores to his tally in the rushing game. Murray is a solid quarterback who rates more highly on the thin Week 18 slate

Running Backs

Backup Michael Carter is the first man up for Arizona with James Conner and Trey Benson both out for Week 18. Carter gains 4.9 yards per attempt but has carried the ball just 18 times all season, gaining 88 yards in the process, with all of those carries coming in the past two games. Carter caught seven of seven targets in the two performances as well while leading the group with a 72% snap share

DeeJay Dallas is a limited option gaining 3.4 yards per attempt on eight carries all season, despite suiting up for special teams action every week this year

Receivers & Tight Ends

Trey McBride is one of the top options at tight end on both sites this week. Averaging an excellent 7.9 yards per target on 9.1 targets per game with volume upticks as high as the 16 targets he picked up in last week’s game, McBride is among the leaders in every category but touchdowns, where he has but one all season. The Arizona tight end will look to get on the board again in Week 18, he is TE2/2 on both sites and is worth of investment

Marvin Harrison Jr. should see full run as the second pairing with Murray in this offense. The rookie receiver had an up and down season with sensational peaks and flashes of extreme talent, he finished with seven touchdown catches on a 13.5-yard average depth of target that should make him a big play threat for years to come. Harrison Jr. is WR15 by points but WR8 by value on DraftKings, he falls lower as WR22/21 on FanDuel

Zay Jones and Greg Dortch are minimally involved mix-and-match receivers who will see only limited action assuming Michael Wilson does not suit up. Wilson was added to the injury report on Friday and is a true question mark heading into Sunday morning, if he plays he would be on the board as a mid-level receiver and Dortch would be minimally involved for his typical 2.9 target per game volume

Arizona is Stack 4 by points and Stack 2 by value on the DraftKings slate while landing as Stack 6/7 on the FanDuel board, the Murray to McBride combination is a noteworthy upside play for inclusion in most combinations

Atlanta Falcons

Game Total: 48.0 / ATL -8.0 (28.0 imp)

Plays: 45.29% rush / 54.71% pass / 21.9 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass

oppDEF: 5.1 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 31.o ppg / 5.93% sack / 1.63% int

Key Player: Michael Penix Jr.

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney (Q; doubtful), Ray-Ray McCloud III, Tyler Allgeier (on/off), Kyle Pitts, KhaDarel Hodge (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Adam Thielen, Xavier Legette (Q), Jalen Coker, Miles Sanders (Q; likely; on/off), Raheem Blackshear (on/off), Ja’Tavion Sanders (on/off), Tommy Tremble (on/off)

Game Notes: The Falcons are playing to win, they can clinch the NFC South with a win and a Buccaneers loss

Quarterback

Michael Penix Jr. completed 19 of 35 passes for 223 yards with a touchdown and an interception in Week 17, marking his first career touchdown pass against two interceptions in his two starts. The quarterback gained just three yards on two rush attempts, he had three yards on four attempts the week before. Penix has not done much to impress but he faces a lousy Carolina defense that allows 7.6 yards per pass attempt and 31.0 points per game on the season, pushing the quarterback up to QB7 by points and QB4 by value on DraftKings and QB9 by points and QB6 by value on FanDuel

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson is RB1/1 on DraftKings and RB1/2 on FanDuel, he ranks as a strong points-per-dollar play in spite of slate-high pricing. Robinson has 12 rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown this season, he gains a significant 4.7 yards per rush attempt and sees 21.5 potential touches per game. Robinson will be facing a defense that allows a ridiculous 5.1 yards per rush attempt, he has the chance to dominate Week 18, given enough touches

Tyler Allgeier is always a threat to bite into the totals of his counterpart in the backfield, he is a low-end option other than throwing darts at poached touchdowns, of which he has three for the season

Receivers & Tight Ends

Drake London is the top target drawing 8.8 looks per game, if Darnell Mooney ends up sitting as is the buzz heading into Sunday morning, London could spike another game with double-digit targets, he saw 13 opportunities in Week 17. London has seven touchdown catches and averages 7.7 yards per target on a 10.5-yard average depth. London is WR5 by points and WR10 by value on the wacky Week 18 DraftKings slate, he is WR10/6 on FanDuel for a fair price

Darnell Mooney is not expected to play, if he suits up he ranks as a playable DFS option, he has been a solid second receiver with five touchdown catches and a 9.4-yard per target average on the season

Ray-Ray McCloud III currently ranks on the fringes of playability but would take a step forward in the absence of Mooney. McCloud has one touchdown catch on 5.0 targets per game this season and dipped to a single opportunity last week

Kyle Pitts is a mix-in option as TE9/13 on DraftKings and TE15/17 on FanDuel but he would also gain from an additional target or two in the absence of the team’s second-best pass-catcher

KhaDarel Hodge would be a depth consideration with a strong 10.7-yard average depth of target on his limited volume if Mooney does not play

The Falcons are in an interesting position as a playable value stack against one of the most targetable defenses in football, they are Stack 2 by points and Stack 1 by value on DraftKings while landing as Stack 4 by points and Stack 3 by value on FanDuel on the topsy-turvy Week 18 slate

Buffalo Bills

Game Total: 36.0 / BUF -3.5 (19.75 imp)

Plays: 47.71% rush / 52.29% pass / 31.8 ppg / 4.6 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 25.1 ppg / 5.29% sack / 1.4% int

Key Player: Mitchell Trubisky (Josh Allen is expected to start for a very limited number of snaps)

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Ray Davis, Frank Gore Jr., Keon Coleman, Tyrell Shavers, Ty Johnson (on/off), Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel (Q), Quintin Morris (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Antonio Gibson, Hunter Henry, DeMario Douglass, Kayshon Boutte, Rhamondre Stevenson (on/off), Kendrick Bourne, Austin Hooper (on/off)

Game Notes: The Bills have nothing to play for in Week 18. Dawson Knox is an unlikely eight catches and 89 yards from a $200k bonus

Quarterback

Technically, Josh Allen is expected to start this game. Allen is widely expected to play only a snap or two to secure his consecutive starts streak before yielding to backup Mitchell Trubisky who ranks as QB25/25 and QB26/27 across sites. The Bills are resting most of their starters, Trubisky is of limited value as a passer on a limited stack this week. In his starting years, from 2017-2020, Trubisky threw for 10,609 yards on 64.0% passing with 64 touchdown passes and 37 interceptions while gaining 6.7 yards per attempt. The quarterback has nine touchdown passes and 11 interceptions while throwing for 2,005 yards on 300 pass attempts in the four subsequent seasons combined

Running Backs

Ray Davis should be the first man up with James Cook expected to take a seat for Week 18 with the Bills secured in their playoff seed. Davis gains 3.9 yards per rush attempt on 6.1 carries per game and has five touchdowns with three on the ground and two in the passing attack this season. The running back slots in as a playable RB22/22 and RB23/28 across sites but he is not a priority value with the Bills looking like an also-ran stack this week

Ty Johnson and Frank Gore Jr. should be the active backups to Davis, splitting limited opportunities. Johnson has been the more relevant player for the season but Gore could out-snap him if active. Johnson has three touchdown catches and a rushing touchdown on the season

Receivers & Tight Ends

The mixed receiving board below is a product of mixed availability reporting for Buffalo skill players. Amari Cooper is out for sure, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid should see only limited snaps, which should thrust alternatives like Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, Tyrell Shavers, and the backup tight ends into the mix, none of them rank inside the top-40 this week

For a change, the Bills rank near the bottom of the stacks board as Stack 26/25 on DraftKings and Stack 27/27 on FanDuel, there should be very little to see here

Carolina Panthers

Game Total: 48.0 / CAR +8.0 (20.0 imp)

Plays: 40.95% rush / 59.05% pass / 18.6 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 6.1 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 23.7 ppg / 5.40% sack / 2.21% int

Key Player: Bryce Young

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Adam Thielen, Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, Miles Sanders (on/off), Raheem Blackshear (on/off), Ja’Tavion Sanders (on/off), Tommy Tremble (on/off), David Moore (large field), Mike Boone (large field; on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud III, Tyler Allgeier (on/off), Kyle Pitts, KhaDarel Hodge (large field)

Game Notes: The Panthers are playing to spoil and for the experience, they should have regulars on the field throughout but they remain a low-end option

Quarterback

Bryce Young has been all over the map this season, he has a dozen touchdown passes and nine interceptions while gaining just 6.1 yards per pass attempt and 5.9 yards per rush on limited opportunities. The quarterback has punched the ball in for four rushing touchdowns and he has a fair connection with top receiver Adam Thielen but there is only bent appeal in QB8 by points and QB11 by value on DraftKings and QB10 by points and QB7 by value on FanDuel in the week that quarterbacks forgot

Running Backs

Miles Sanders was activated from injured reserve and is expected to play on Sunday, gearing up to disappoint anyone including him on fantasy rosters one last time. Sanders gains 3.7 yards per rush attempt this season, he has one rushing touchdown and very little value as RB30/19 and RB31/16

Raheem Blackshear will share carries with Sanders, he saw 77% of the snaps last week but managed to gain just 20 yards on eight carries without scoring

Mike Boone is another potential mixer for a few touches, he has no clear path to DFS value outside of a wildly random touchdown

Receivers & Tight Ends

Adam Thielen ranks as WR20/24 and WR21/19 and is playable in standalone shares or as a bring-back option in stacks of Falcons, he has similar value to what he showed against Tampa Bay last week. Thielen has five touchdown catches while averaging an excellent 10.2 yards per target over 6.2 targets per game and an 11.3-yard average depth of target. The veteran receiver is a top priority option if one is forced to roster Panthers, he is a very solid play under normal circumstances

Xavier Legette is WR29/21 and WR31/27 across sites, he sees 5.3 targets per game for the season but spiked to nine opportunities last week. Legette has four touchdown catches this season and carries an excellent 30.55% air yards share with a 12.6-yard average depth of target giving him big play upside for DFS scoring

Jalen Coker also provides big play potential with a 12.3-yard average depth of target but sees just 3.9 chances per game, Coker is a mix-and-match value from a playable WR38/37 and WR36/33 across DraftKings and FanDuel

Ja’Tavion Sanders and Tommy Tremble mix in for low-end tight end shares, they are mostly skippable and would be touchdown-dependent plays

David Moore sees limited volume with 3.4 targets per game and a pair of touchdown catches as the fourth option at best in this limited but high-volume passing game

The Panthers are Stack 17 by points and Stack 12 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 20 by points and Stack 12 by value on FanDuel, a pairing of Young and Thielen could potentially rank better in two-man rankings across quarterback-receiver pairings, given the points and value marks for both

Chicago Bears

Game Total: 41.5 / CHI +10.5 (15.5 imp)

Plays: 40.18% rush / 59.82% pass / 17.9 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 19.6 ppg / 7.60% sack / 2.99% int

Key Player: Caleb Williams

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet, Roschon Johnson (on/off), Gerald Everett (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Josh Jacobs, Emanuel Wilson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft, Bo Melton, Malik Heath

Game Notes: The Bears have nothing to play for but are expected to play their regulars for the full game with the Packers playing to win to improve a clinched playoff seed

Quarterback

Rookie Caleb Williams will end his up and down season with a lot of work to do heading into the future. Williams threw 19 touchdowns against just six interceptions but mostly failed to impress, gaining just 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Williams did crest the 300-yard mark four times this season and had two games with three or more touchdown passes but he also posted a four-week stretch without throwing a single touchdown pass

Running Backs

D’Andre Swift is a low-end running back option who slots in as RB16/15 and RB19/21 across sites. Swift gains 3.8 yards per attempt with just 1.8 yards after contact per attempt, he has five rushing touchdowns this season and only limited involvement in the passing game

Roschon Johnson has more touchdowns than Swift, with six on the season despite seeing just 4.1 carries per game and gaining 2.8 yards per rush attempt. Johnson is a pace-changer who picked up significant red zone chances through the middle of the season but has not touched the ball inside the 20 in his last three games

Receivers & Tight Ends

DJ Moore is an always playable veteran who slots in as WR14/15 and WR17/13 for a fair price across sites. Moore has five touchdown catches on the season but trails teammate Keenan Allen, who slots in with a team-leading seven and the more significant air yards share

Keenan Allen is WR21/25 and WR24/20, his 9.0-yard average depth of target beats out the 7.9-yard mark carried by Moore but falls short of the significant 14.0-yard depth at which rookie Rome Odunze sees his average target. Allen’s 26.58% air yards share trumps the 25.17% posted by Moore but falls well short of the rookie’s mark

Rome Odunze has a 33.72% air yards share on 6.2 targets per game but has found paydirt only three times this season. Odunze is a solid value option with big play ability, despite less volume than his teammates he holds up as WR23/26 and WR28/24 across sites

Cole Kmet is TE8 by points and TE5 by value on DraftKings while slotting in worse as TE12 across the FanDuel board. Kmet has four touchdown catches but sees just 3.3 targets per game

Chicago presents a mix of playability on an oddball Week 18 slate that includes significantly worse quarterback options and a light receiver pool. The Bears are Stack 10 by points and Stack 13 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 14/14 on the deeper FanDuel slate

Dallas Cowboys

Game Total: 44.0 / DAL +6.5 (18.75 imp)

Plays: 37.9% rush / 62.1% pass / 20.7 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 23.3 ppg / 8.15% sack / 1.52% int

Key Player: Cooper Rush / Trey Lance

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Rico Dowdle, Jalen Tolbert, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks, KaVontae Turpin, Jonathan Mingo, Luke Schoonmaker (on/off), Ryan Flournoy (large field), Jalen Brooks (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Terry McLaurin, Austin Ekeler, Brian Robinson Jr., Olamide Zaccheaus, Zach Ertz, Jamison Crowder, Dyami Brown, Ben Sinnott (on/off)

Game Notes: Dallas has nothing to play for and their best players are absent

Quarterback

Cooper Rush is a lousy option even in a week with limited talent, he is QB22/20 and QB24/26 across sites. Rush has thrown a dozen touchdowns and five interceptions while averaging just 6.0 yards per pass attempt and he will be working without CeeDee Lamb in the passing game again in Week 18

Running Backs

Rico Dowdle is RB6/5 on DraftKings and RB7/14 on FanDuel where his price is not as snug a fit. Dowdle has been OK with 4.7 yards per rush attempt on 14.2 carries and 5.2 yards per target over 3.1 opportunities each week in the passing game but his scoring output has been limited to one rushing and three receiving touchdowns

Deuce Vaughn and Hunter Luepke could see a few additional touches with Ezekiel Elliott finally given the Ol’ Yeller treatment ahead of Week 18, they are of little to no DFS value

Receivers & Tight Ends

Jalen Tolbert leads a group of misfit pass-catchers with explosive upside. Tolbert sees a solid 11.7-yard average depth of target and is up to seven touchdown catches on 4.6 targets per game

Brandin Cooks slots in as WR35/55 and WR50/63 across sites, he has three touchdown catches on five targets per game and a 13.0-yard average depth of target. Seven missed games midseason hurt the numbers for a still-capable Cooks

KaVontae Turpin has big play upside despite just a 7.6-yard average depth of target, given his explosive abilities with the ball in his hands. Turpin has two touchdown catches this season but sees just 2.9 targets per game

Jake Ferguson slots in as TE5/4 on DraftKings but slips to TE10 by points and TE9 by value on FanDuel where receptions count for less. Ferguson has been allergic to the end zone all season, despite a healthy 6.3 targets per game. The tight end does not operate far down the field with a 4.2-yard average depth of target, making it difficult for him to pay DFS investors without touchdowns

Dallas is Stack 20 by points and value on DraftKings and Stack 22/23 on the FanDuel slate, they are potentially a better source of individuals though even that value is questionable at best

Denver Broncos

Game Total: 40.5 / DEN -10.5 (25.5 imp)

Plays: 42.52% rush / 65.25% pass / 24.2 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.2 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 18.0 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass

Key Player: Bo Nix

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims Jr., Jaleel McLaughlin, Devaughn Vele, Javonte Williams (on/off), Audric Estime (on/off), Troy Franklin (large field), Lil’Jordan Humphrey (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Carson Steele, Samaje Perine, Nikko Remigio, Justin Watson, DeAndre Hopkins (on/off, limited), JuJu Smith-Schuster, Noah Gray (on/off), Hollywood Brown (on/off; limited), Xavier Worthy (on/off; limited)

Game Notes: Denver is chasing a playoff berth, they need this key win over a Kansas City squad resting most of its talent to clinch a spot, this is a team playing to win in Week 18 but also one with a potentially easy path to a light fourth quarter. Courtland Sutton earns $500,000 with an 82-yard day.

Quarterback

Bo Nix turned a somewhat slow start into a promising campaign with 25 touchdown passes against 12 interceptions heading into a critical Week 18 matchup. The Broncos are in with a win and the Chiefs are expected to mostly rest their key players, paving the way to the postseason for Denver. Nix has four rushing touchdowns on the season and makes for an interesting option with Sutton as a top pairing. Nix is QB5 by points on DraftKings but slips to QB12 by value, he is similarly ranked on FanDuel as QB7/QB12 and is playable across the industry in a must-win game

Running Backs

Denver operates a three-headed running back by committee that split shares 23-37-30% last week, if value follows touchdowns then Javonte Williams’ four leads the pack but Jaleel McLaughlin has two touchdown catches to go with a single rushing touchdown to sit second, despite seeing fewer targets than Williams on average

Receivers & Tight Ends

Courtland Sutton is the go-to receiver for the Denver passing game, particularly with the fairly significant incentive for an achievable 82-yard performance. Sutton averages 7.7 yards per target on 8.0 targets per game and dominates air yards with a 45.93% share on a 13.0-yard big-play-focused average depth of target. The receiver has seven touchdowns on the year and stands a strong chance of finishing with eight or more, he is WR6 by points and WR9 by value on DraftKings and sits as WR8 across the board on FanDuel

Marvin Mims Jr. is a mix-in receiver with four touchdowns on the board, all of which came from Week 11 onward. Mims caught all eight of his targets for 103 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week, his second 100-yard game in the last four contests

Devaughn Vele is the third option in the passing attack, he picked up just two targets last week alongside the big day by Mims but sees an average of 4.3 and has scored twice this season

Troy Franklin is another dart throw option for a deep touchdown, his 13.7-yard average depth of target has appeal and has led to two scores but he sees only 3.4 chances per game

The Broncos are Stack 15 by points and Stack 16 by value on DraftKings and Stack 16 by points and Stack 19 by value on FanDuel but the combination of Nix and Sutton would rank far higher against other two-man options

Detroit Lions – FanDuel only

Game Total: 56.5 / DET -2.5 (29.5 imp)

Plays: 47.81% rush / 52.19% pass / 33.3 ppg / 4.6 ypa rush / 8.7 ypa pass

oppDEF: 3.9 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 18.8 ppg / 7.22% sack / 3.64% int

Key Player: Jared Goff

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Tim Patrick, Kalif Raymond (Q; large field), Craig Reynolds (Q; on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones Sr., TJ Hockenson, Jalen Nailor, Cam Akers (on/off), Josh Oliver (on/off)

Game Notes: The Lions and Vikings are playing the ludicrously highly-totaled Sunday Night game for the top seed and homefield advantage throughout in the NFC, this game should hit on all cylinders throughout

Quarterback

Jared Goff helms the favored offense in a game with a 56.5-point total, one of the highest of the entire season. Goff’s Lions are favored by just 2.5 in a game that will decide the NFC’s top seed and homefield advantage, this is a crucial must-win situation that should lead to a DFS scoring bonanza in the late night hammer game. Goff has tremendous weapons both in the air and on the ground, he gains a whopping 8.7 yards per pass attempt and has thrown 36 touchdowns against just 10 interceptions this season, he is an elite option as QB3 by points and QB2 by value on the FanDuel slate

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs is slated to dominate in Week 18 with David Montgomery sidelined again. Gibbs has 13 rushing touchdowns and three touchdown catches on the season and averages an excellent 5.6 yards per rush attempt, he is RB2 by points and RB4 by value on FanDuel in Week 18. Gibbs gained 117 yards on 18 carries, with another 46 yards gained on four catches, and scored a touchdown last week in similar circumstances

Receivers & Tight Ends

Amon-Ra St. Brown is WR3 by points and WR11 by value on FanDuel this week. The Lions’ top weapon in the passing game has a 30.74% air yards share on a 7.7-yard average depth of target and sees terrific volume with 8.4 targets per game. St. Brown has a dozen touchdown catches on the season and is looking to put the at least the baker’s extra into the bag before the year is up

Jameson Williams flashed his tremendous skillset last week, picking up a touchdown in the passing game and another on one of his two rushing attempts. Williams has four touchdowns over the past three games and gained 77 yards on five catches last week and 143 yards on five catches the week before, he is a strong second option in the passing attack and can be played in or out of stacks, paired with or away from St. Brown and/or Gibbs

Sam LaPorta is up to seven touchdown catches on the season after waiting until Week 6 to nab his first of the year. The tight end gains a strong 8.7 yards per target on 5.1 opportunities per game and sees a 7.1-yard average depth of target for 15.56% of the air yards, third behind St. Brown and the 30.04% mark that Williams carries on an 11.4-yard ADOT

Tim Patrick is a mix-in dart-throw level play, he sees a solid 10.3-yard average depth of target and has three touchdowns as the clear third wide receiver in the passing game but that does not lead to much volume with 2.8 targets per game and only one over the past two games combined

Detroit is Stack 1 by points and Stack 2 by value on FanDuel, they are a critical option on the blue site this week and make for a fun play in DraftKings Showdown formats

Green Bay Packers

Game Total: 41.5 / GB -10.5 (26.0 imp)

Plays: 51.04% rush / 48.96% pass / 27.4 ppg / 4.7 ypa rush / 8.2 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 7.9 ypa pass / 21.8 ppg / 7.18% sack / 2.30% int

Key Player: Jordan Love

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Josh Jacobs, Emanuel Wilson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs (Q), Christian Watson (Q), Tucker Kraft, Bo Melton, Malik Heath

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet, Roschon Johnson (on/off), Gerald Everett (on/off)

Game Notes: The Packers can move from the seventh to the sixth seed with a win and a Commanders loss, the games are simultaneous so they will likely play to win throughout

Quarterback

Jordan Love has been limping to the finish line over the past few weeks, throwing for less than 200 yards and only one touchdown in each of the past two games. Love has not thrown for more than two touchdowns in a game since Week 7 and has not been over the 300-yard mark since Week 4. The quarterback is still a reasonable DFS presence, he gains 8.0 yards per attempt on 29.5 attempts per game and has 25 touchdown passes against 11 interceptions and has an excellent receiving group when everyone is healthy but Love is just QB 9/16 on DraftKings and QB11/13 on FanDuel this week

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs could see a usage dip while dealing with a wrist injury (he is off of the injury report entirely overnight on Saturday) if the Packers are either well ahead or if the Commanders game looks decided by the third quarter. Jacobs has 14 rushing touchdowns on the season, he is a strong option if he plays the full game and could see a projections and rankings bump in the morning update. The running back gains 4.4 yards per attempt and sees more than 20 potential touches each week

Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks will step forward if Jacobs sees fewer touches, with Wilson the more likely to see significant opportunities. The running back gains 4.8 yards per attempt and has three rushing touchdowns while tying Jacobs with one touchdown catch for the season Wilson is RB27/27 and RB26/26 but would dip with any volume gains given to Jacobs

Receivers & Tight Ends

Jayden Reed is the healthiest of the Packers’ primary pass-catchers, both Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson are questionable to play and could be more limited if they suit up at all. Like all of the Packers options he could be somewhat limited if the team eases up in the second half, landing most of the skill options at lower-than-usual rankings. Reed ranks as WR33 by points and WR71 by value at a hefty DraftKings price, he is WR46/65 on FanDuel this week, but could easily trend higher given his explosive play ability. Reed has six touchdown catches this season with another score on a rushing attempt.

Dontayvion Wicks will likely step into a more significant role again in Week 18, due both to the questions about status for Doubs and Watson and the notion that they would be less involved even if they are active. Wicks has been excellent when he gets a chance this season, posting five touchdown catches and garnering a 20.88% air yards share despite seeing just 4.4 targets per game overall

Roubs is the top option in the passing attack with a 5.5-target average, eh has four touchdown catches and a 21.98% air yards share and is often only the nominal leader, though he did spike to 11 targets last week with Christian Watson out

Christian Watson is WR59/76 and WR73/81 if he suits up but, like the other Packers receivers, he has a ceiling quite a bit higher than those marks in any realistic action

Tucker Kraft has a team-leading seven touchdown catches this season despite seeing just 3.9 targets per game. The tight end gains 10.7 yards per target despite a 5.3-yard average depth of target, he has been excellent on limited volume and makes a solid add-on to any Packers stacks

Green Bay is a difficult option to rank this week with the uncertain nature of their game, their second-half effort level may depend entirely on the score in the Commanders game and projections reflect that likelihood. Green Bay is Stack 12 by points and Stack 22 by value on DraftKings and Stack 12/20 on FanDuel but it would not surprise to see them outpace those numbers if both games are competitive

Houston Texans

Game Total: 36.5 / HOU +1.0 (17.75 imp)

Plays: 40.5% rush / 59.5% pass / 21.8 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 27.3 ppg / 6.51% sack / 2.47% int

Key Player: CJ Stroud

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Nico Collins, Dameon Pierce, Joe Mixon (on/off, limited), John Metchie III, Xavier Hutchinson, Diontae Johnson, Dare Ogunbowale (on/off), Robert Woods (large field; on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Julius Chestnut (on/off), Josh Whyle, Jha’Quan Jackson, Bryce Oliver

Game Notes: Houston is locked into the four-seed, they are not expected to have starters on the field for the full game. Joe Mixon is not expected to see much time but he is only 107 yards from a $250k bonus

Quarterback

CJ Stroud and his Texans check in with most of the recent regulars available but unlikely to see much time. Coach-speak has been somewhat vague about the actual plans for Sunday but the Texans have cinched-up the fourth spot in the playoffs and have nothing but downside to play for in Week 18. Stroud has thrown 19 touchdowns against 12 interceptions this year, he may have the chance to lead one drive and get to a 20th score or 13th interception but that is about the limit of expectations in a game in which the Titans are one-point favorites. Stroud will yield time to backup Davis Mills for most of this game

Running Backs

Dameon Pierce is technically more highly-ranked and highly-projected than starter Joe Mixon, the team’s star running back. Mixon is 107 yards from a $250,000 salary bonus but is unlikely to see the volume needed to reach that mark. Pierce, meanwhile, gains 5.6 yards per attempt on limited volume this season and has one rushing touchdown on the board over 2.1 carries per game, he will be spelled by Dare Ogunbowale in the passing game

Joe Mixon is RB33/48 and RB38/50 on the assumption of limited playing time. The running back gains 4.1 yards per attempt on 18.5 carries per game and needs his volume to truly make value. Mixon has 11 touchdowns on the ground and another in the passing game in another terrific season

Receivers & Tight Ends

Nico Collins, like the other Houston starters, should be limited for action in Week 18. Collins has six touchdown catches and leads the team with 8.5 targets per game and he still stands as WR28 by points on DraftKings and WR37 by points on FanDuel but he is priced like a top-10 receiver on both sites

John Metchie III is likely to see more action than Collins but he ranks outside of the top-50 at the position across sites. Metchie was targeted eight times in Week 17, he caught five passes for 48 yards but did not score, his lone touchdown came in Week 10

Xavier Hutchinson has not scored this season, his 1.6 targets per game do not amount to much despite a solid 10.2-yard average depth of target. Hutchinson was targeted four times last week but caught just two of those passes for 21 yards, he could easily slip behind Robert Woods or newly added Diontae Johnson in the passing game

Dalton Shultz is TE21/34 and TE34/40 with the same presumption of limited action. Shultz has two touchdown catches and a 15.63% air yards share as one of the team’s top targets in the passing game under normal circumstances, he will be spelled by Cade Stover and Irv Smith Jr.

The Texans are Stack 24 by points and Stack 26 by value on DraftKings and Stack 28/28 on the FanDuel slate this week with partial-game expectations across the board

Indianapolis Colts

Game Total: 44.5 / IND -3.5 (24.0 imp)

Plays: 47.93% rush / 52.07% pass / 21.9 ppg / 4.7 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 8.0 ypa pass / 25.6 ppg / 5.43% sack / 1.11% int

Key Player: Joe Flacco

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Jonathan Taylor, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell, Kylen Granson (on/off), Mo Alie-Cox/Drew Ogletree (on/off; low-end rotation), Ashton Dulin (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Etienne Jr., Tank Bigsby, Brenton Strange, Parker Washington, Josh Reynolds, Devin Duvernay

Game Notes: Neither team is in contention or playing for anything beyond pride

Quarterback

Joe Flacco will be closing out 2024 as the Colts’ starter, he has 11 touchdown passes and seven interceptions while gaining 7.2 yards per pass attempt on 8.7 intended air yards per attempt this season and has led the Colts to a few capable games and a few low-end weeks. Flacco is QB10 by points and QB9 by value on DraftKings and lands as QB12/11 on the FanDuel slate

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor is an appealing piece of the puzzle from a team that should be fully engaged in a meaningless contest in Week 18. The running back gains 4.7 yards per attempt and has 10 touchdowns this season while playing 81% of the snaps on average. Taylor has a touchdown in the passing game and draws 2.2 targets to go with his tremendous 20.7 carries per game, giving him elite volume at 22.9 potential touches each week

Receivers & Tight Ends

The Colts are once again showing standout potential for value in the receiving group across both sites

Josh Downs lands as WR19 by points but WR7 by value on DraftKings, he is similarly strong for points-per-dollar as WR16/WR4 on the FanDuel slate. Downs has five touchdown catches on a 7.2-yard average depth of target over 7.2 targets per game as Flacco’s favorite early season option and mostly as the team’s short-yardage safety valve, though his volume has dipped over the past few weeks. Downs could easily slip behind the other two receivers again in morning updates

Michael Pittman Jr. is WR12 by points and leaps to WR1 by value on DraftKings, he is WR20/WR14 on FanDuel. Pittman sees a 10.7-yard average depth of target for a 22.96% air yards share over 6.7 targets per game with upside into double-digit targeting, he saw 10 chances last week and caught nine of them for 109 yards and a touchdown in his best game of the season

Alec Pierce ranks as just WR37/65 and WR38/48 across sites this week, his price has risen to $5,000/$5,800 with an uptick in recent volume and on the back of his big performances overall. Pierce now has six touchdown catches on 4.5 targets per game over the full season, he was targeted nine times by Flacco last week, catching six passes for 122 yards and a touchdown

Adonai Mitchell is a more limited dart throw at a big play, he has a 13.9-yard ADOT but sees just 3.4 targets per game and has failed to score this season

The Colts rank as Stack 3 by points and Stack 3 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 5 by both points and value on FanDuel against a defense yielding 8.0 yards per pass attempt and 25.6 points per game

Jacksonville Jaguars

Game Total: 44.5 / JAC +3.5 (20.5 imp)

Plays: 41.13% rush / 58.87% pass / 18.6 ppg / 4.3 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 25.3 ppg / 6.22% sack / 2.92% int

Key Player: Mac Jones

Setting: exactly one

Team Group: Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Etienne Jr., Tank Bigsby, Brenton Strange, Parker Washington, Josh Reynolds, Devin Duvernay

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Jonathan Taylor, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell, Kylen Granson (on/off)

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Mac Jones ranks toward the bottom of the league in most categories in his starting appearances, he has seven touchdown passes and seven interceptions for the season and does not rate as a strong option even against a Colts defense that gives up 7.6 yards per pass attempt and a bottom-third passing touchdowns per game mark. Jones is QB17/15 and QB18/17 and is nothing more than a pure gamble in Week 18, despite the presence of standout receiver Brian Thomas Jr.

Running Backs

The split backfield rolls on with Travis Etienne gaining 3.8 yards per rush attempt on 9.8 carries per game and 4.8 yards per target on 3.4 opportunities in the passing attack while Tank Bigsby gains 4.7 yards per rush and 4.6 yards per target but sees only 0.7 targets and 10.3 carries. Bigsby has six rushing touchdowns to Etienne’s two, neither has scored on a reception. The running backs are middling options with Etienne landing as RB15/11 on DraftKings and RB18/20 on FanDuel and Bigsby slotting in at RB25/26 and RB25/27, once again earning zero points for deserving this job

Receivers & Tight Ends

Brian Thomas Jr. has been the most productive member of a standout class of rookie receivers. Thomas has 10 touchdown catches this season and dominates the team’s air yards with a 30.34% share on an 11.1-yard ADOT over a team-leading 7.6 targets per game. Thomas is the first, second, and third best option in this passing game and the only Jaguars player worthy of consideration on a weekly basis, he is WR2 by points and WR16 by value on DraftKings and WR4/10 on the FanDuel slate

Brenton Strange is a cheap tight end mixer as TE10/8 on DraftKings and TE8/6 on the FanDuel slate. Strange has two touchdowns this season and has been filling in for heavily-targeted Evan Engram over the past few weeks. Strange failed to catch his lone target in Week 17 after hauling in two of four for a mere 22 yards in Week 16, his season may have peaked in Week 15 with 11 catches on 12 targets for 73 yards.

Parker Washington has two touchdowns this season and an 11.1-yard ADOT but he is a dart throw at best as WR60/74 and WR59/67 across sites

Jacksonville is Stack 14 by points and Stack 18 by value on DraftKings and Stack 15/17 on FanDuel, they are not appealing as a group but Thomas Jr. is a top option at his position

Kansas City Chiefs

Game Total: 40.5 / DEN -10.5 (15 imp)

Plays: 41.49% rush / 58.51% pass / 24.1 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass

oppDEF: 3.9 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 19.4 ppg / 8.96% sack / 2.55% int

Key Player: Carson Wentz

Setting: exactly one

Team Group: Carson Steele, Samaje Perine, Nikko Remigio, Justin Watson, DeAndre Hopkins (on/off, limited), JuJu Smith-Schuster, Noah Gray (on/off), Hollywood Brown (on/off; limited), Xavier Worthy (on/off; limited)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims Jr., Jaleel McLaughlin, Devaughn Vele, Javonte Williams (on/off), Audric Estime (on/off), Troy Franklin (large field), Lil’Jordan Humphrey (large field)

Game Notes: Key Chiefs are not expected to play this week, the team has locked-in the top seed in the AFC going into Week 18. DeAndre Hopkins is not expected to play with the Chiefs resting starters but is nine catches from $250,000 and 140 yards from another $250,000

Quarterback

Carson Wentz will start Week 18, he completed two of two passes in relief of Patrick Mahomes last week, gaining 20 yards in the process. Wentz was most recently relevant in 2022 when he completed 172 of 276 pass attempts for 1,755 yards and 11 touchdowns with nine interceptions in eight appearnaces for Washington. The quarterback is a capable option but Kansas City does not look like a strong play with backups on the field and a solid defense playing to win on the other side

Running Backs

Carson Steele had a moment in the sun as a hot waiver wire pickup early in the season but he never delivered on that opportunity and has provided no fantasy value this season. Steele could change that as the probable primary running back in Week 18, he is just RB24/RB21 on DraftKings but he ranks highly for value on FanDuel, climbing from RB24 by points to RB7 by value on the blue site

Samaje Perine is RB29/25 and RB30/31 across sites, he should be in the mix for touches but the team is unlikely to risk even his quality in a meaningless game. Perine has a rushing touchdown and a receiving touchdown this season

Receivers & Tight Ends

Chiefs receiver rankings will change in morning rankings updates with a bit of news, the team is expected to rest key players but we do not know the exact impact. One can expect that Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster, Justin Watson, and practice squad and special teams player Nikko Remigio will lead the way in some order but they lack much appeal in a low-end game environment against a good defense

Justin Watson has two touchdown catches on a solid 15.2-yard average depth of target but sees just 1.8 targets per game in normal situations, he will see a significant uptick in opportunities this week

Nikko Remigio is WR48 by points but WR20 at a bargain basement DraftKings price, he is WR44/24 on FanDuel but he also may not see a single opportunity. Remigio has active since Week 14, playing eight total snaps with the offense and 31 on special teams, he has run one route and has not been targeted in the regular offense

JuJu Smith-Schuster will vault above Watson and Remigio in the morning update as we remove the targets currently given to Hopkins, Brown, and Worthy in their limited projection placeholders. Smith-Schuster has two touchdowns on a 5.5-yard average depth of target, he needs to break plays or pick up red zone targeting to make value

Noah Gray and Anthony Firkser will split tight end duties, though Gray should do most of the work in the passing game, he has five touchdowns on the season but will also likely be limited for opportunities if he sees any at all

Kansas City is Stack 25/23 on DraftKings and Stack 26/22 on FanDuel, Denver is the more appealing of the two teams in this game

Las Vegas Raiders

Game Total: 41.5 / LV +4.5 (18.5 imp)

Plays: 36.18% rush / 63.82% pass / 18.1 ppg / 3.6 ypa rush / 6.5 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 17.6 ppg / 8.00% sack / 2.65% int

Key Player: Aidan O’Connell

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, Alexander Mattison, Chris Collier (on/off), Michael Mayer (on/off), Terrace Marshall Jr. (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, JK Dobbins, Will Dissly, Stone Smartt, Derius Davis, DJ Chark, Hayden Hurst (on/off)

Game Notes: The Chargers will be looking to win, the Raiders could play spoiler but have nothing to play for overall. Alexander Mattison earns $125,000 with eight receptions in this game

Quarterback

Aidan O’Connell led a competent passing attack last week with 242 yards on 20-35 passing with a pair of touchdowns in his strongest game since Week 13. O’Connell has been hit and miss in addition to being in and out of the lineup, overall his season amounts to six touchdown passes against three interceptions but he has two excellent weapons in the passing game. O’Connell and his Raiders draw a tough motivated Chargers defense in this matchup and O’Connell is just QB19/14 and QB21/18 but the team rates more competitively as a collection of individuals

Running Backs

Alexander Mattison gains just 3.2 yards per rush attempt over 9.7 carries per game, he has been better in the passing attack with 6.6 yards per target but his volume is clipped to just 3.3 opportunities per game in that department. Mattison has four rushing touchdowns with a fifth score coming in the passing game, he should lead the way for Las Vegas with Ameer Abdullah out for Week 18 and could push to hit his bonus via receptions if the team is feeling generous. Mattison could make for a sneaky running back play in PPR formats if that is the case, but eight receptions would be three beyond his current season-high

Chris Collier and Dylan Laube will see limited touches behind Mattison, they are no more than dart throws at a cheap touchdown on light volume

Receivers & Tight Ends

Brock Bowers is having a historic rookie season, he has already broken rookie receiving records and slots into Week 18 as TE1 across the board on both sites. Bowers has four touchdown catches while drawing 9.0 targets per game for the season and portioning-off 24.16% of the team’s air yards. The tight end is an excellent buy at his $6,600/$7,300 price tag on a week slightly short of strong options at his position

Jakobi Meyers is the other top option in the Las Vegas passing game, he is WR10/6 on DraftKings and WR12/9 on FanDuel and is beyond playable on both sites. Meyers is an appealing value play for 8.5 targets per game, he has been underpriced and under-owned through most of this season. The receiver has three touchdowns on a 9.3-yard average depth of target that puts him close to big play range. Meyers sees 32.63% of the Raiders air yards, he and Bowers join with Tre Tucker who sees 25.57% of the air yards as the three main weapons in the passing game.

Tre Tucker falls behind the top two options. Despite the strong targeting over a team-leading 12.5-yard ADOT, he picks up just 4.8 chances per game on average and has scored only three times this season. Tucker did see eight opportunities last week, catching just two of them but hauling one of those in for a touchdown on his way to 24 yards gained. Tucker caught two passes for 41 yards the week before and has exactly two catches in four straight games

Las Vegas is Stack 8 by points and Stack 10 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 11 by points and Stack 8 by value on FanDuel but that may ultimately reflect more of the value of Bowers and Meyers as individuals than it does the full group as a DFS stack with O’Connell at the helm against a good defense in a 41.5-point game in which they are implied for only 18.5 points

Los Angeles Chargers

Game Total: 41.5 / LAC +4.5 (23.0 imp)

Plays: 45.29% rush / 54.71% pass / 23.0 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 25.0 ppg / 6.58% sack / 1.90% int

Key Player: Justin Herbert

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, JK Dobbins, Will Dissly, Stone Smartt, Derius Davis, DJ Chark, Hayden Hurst (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, Alexander Mattison, Chris Collier (on/off), Michael Mayer (on/off), Terrace Marshall Jr. (on/off)

Game Notes: Pittsburgh’s loss on Saturday means the Chargers could move from six to five with a win, they are likely to go all-out in this matchup.Dobbins earns a $150k bonus if he gains 58 rushing yards in this game

Quarterback

With something to play for, Justin Herbert should land as a solid quarterback option ahead of a strong stack in Week 18. Herbert is QB4 by points and QB5 by value on DraftKings and QB6/10 on the FanDuel slate where his price is a bit higher relative to the cap. The Los Angeles signal-caller has thrown 21 touchdown passes and just three interceptions, a tremendous scoring-to-turnover ratio, while gaining 7.5 yards per pass attempt. Herbert has even managed to run the ball in twice this season, padding his fantasy scoring somewhat in key spots. The quarterback is live to lead the week in a game the team would like to win, he has solid options in the passing game with the emergence of Ladd McConkey and the less-heralded but equally solid Quentin Johnston

Running Backs

JK Dobbins gains 4.8 yards per rush attempt and carries the ball 14.8 times per game, in a competitive contest he should have no problem earning his $150,000 for 58 more rushing yards and should be expected to go beyond that mark. Dobbins has nine rushing touchdowns for the season but ultimately his volume amounts to just 17.8 potential touches per week, he is RB4 by points and RB9 by value on DraftKings and RB5 by points and RB13 by value on the blue site as the only truly playable option in this backfield with Gus Edwards out

Receivers & Tight Ends

Ladd McConkey has come on strong over the last few weeks, scoring three times in the past three games with 19 catches on 23 targets over that stretch. McConkey has seven touchdown catches while gaining a terrific 10.1 yards per target over 6.9 targets per game and he has double-digit targets in two of his last four games. McConkey is a strong buy as WR7 by points and WR17 by value on DraftKings and WR9/15 on FanDuel this week

Quentin Johnston is WR26/32 on DraftKings and WR29/35 on FanDuel in Week 18. The receiver has a team-leading eight touchdown catches in a solid breakout campaign that has seen him operate on a big play-adjacent 11.1-yard average depth of target for a 21.64% air yards share. Johnston is a strong option in +2 configurations and he has enough juice to work as a low-priced standalone play or in short stacks as a +1

Will Dissly is a low-volume tight end who picks up just 4.1 targets per game and has caught just one touchdown this season. Dissly missed Weeks 15 and 16 and was limited to three targets on 17 routes over 35 snaps in Week 17. The tight end should share opportunities with Stone Smartt in this matchup, they are both fringe plays at a shallow position and either would be almost entirely touchdown-dependent

Derius Davis and DJ Chark are dart throws at touchdowns, with Davis operating in closer and Chark getting down the field. Davis has two touchdowns this season while Chark is yet to score in limited action. Both receivers could see a minor bump with Joshua Palmer out for Week 18

The Chargers are a playable Stack 6 by points and Stack 7 by value on DraftKings in a game they would like to win. The team rates as Stack 7 by points and Stack 9 by value on the FanDuel slate with most of the quality pushing through combinations of Herbert-McConkey and either Dobbins or Johnston in a straightforward +2 build

Los Angeles Rams

Game Total: 38.5 / LAR +7.5 (15.5 imp)

Plays: 44.0% rush / 56.0% pass / 21.4 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 21.4 ppg / 7.37% sack / 2.27% int

Key Player: Jimmy Garoppolo

Setting: exactly one

Team Group: Jordan Whittington, Tyler Johnson, Tutu Atwell, Blake Corum, Cody Schrader (on/off), Xavier Smith, Davis Allen (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Zach Charbonnet, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf, Noah Fant, Kenny McIntosh, Noah Fant, Tyler Lockett

Game Notes: Seattle’s quarterback has six million reasons to pass his way to victory against a Rams squad that is resting their starters in Week 18, the Rams have a 15.5-point total and even less to play for than talent on the field

Quarterback

Jimmy Garoppolo has no stats in the boxes below because Sunday will be his first snaps of the season. The capable understudy to Matthew Stafford will take the reins for Week 18 but he will not have much to work with as all of the team’s key starters are skipping this one with Los Angeles locked into either the three or four spot. Garoppolo played in seven games for Las Vegas last season, completing 110 of 169 pass attempts for 1,205 yards and seven touchdowns but nine interceptions, he was better in 2022 in his final year in San Francisco. That season, Garoppolo threw for 2,437 yards on 207-308 passing in 11 games, posting 16 touchdown passes against just four interceptions. Expectations should be tempered for QB26/22 and QB28/22 this week

Running Backs

Blake Corum should slot in as the lead running back for the Rams in Week 18, with starter and volume hog Kyren Williams sitting out. Corum has been a buzzy name at various points in the season but has failed to deliver tangible results, he ranks highly in his last chance of the regular season as RB11 by points but RB8 by value on DraftKings and RB11/5 on the FanDuel slate. Corum has been the beneficiary of glowing coach-speak this week, he could see a significant workload with all of the backups playing

Cody Schrader and Ronnie Rivers will mix in for light duties, they do not rank among the likely playable options

Receivers & Tight Ends

With all of the name brands off the shelf for Week 18 it is difficult to reach for Rams receivers. Garoppolo is a limited passer but Jordan Whittington is showing a bit of potential as a value play, in standalone builds, as WR31/3 on DraftKings and WR30/3 on FanDuel. Whittington costs just $3,300/$4,200 as one of the cheapest options on the slate likely to draw any tangible volume but the extent to which more involved receivers Tutu Atwell and Demarcus Robinson are to be utilized ahead of him is undetermined. This is a somewhat fragile value option but we did see Whittington catch six passes for 62 yards in Week 4 and seven for 89 yards in Week 5 in extended duties

Tyler Johnson is WR52 by points but WR23 by value on DraftKings and WR43/28 on FanDuel, he costs just $3,000/$4,100 and could get into the mix with a few targets as a depth play behind the more obvious options. Johnson caught five passes for 79 yards in Week 1 and never returned to those heights in either category, though he did have a four-catch 57-yard game in Week 7 and stayed relevant with targets through Week 10 before trailing off to one or zero targets and DNPs over the past few games

Atwell and Robinson would be the go-to options in the passing game given any sign of their probable playing time, we are deliberately undercutting their projections on expectations of limited action in a meaningless contest

Davis Allen and Hunter Long should split limited volume and limited quality of targets at the tight end spot in a weak offense

The Rams are Stack 21 by points and Stack 15 by value on DraftKings and Stack 21 by points but Stack 6 by value on the FanDuel slate with the dramatically discounted price points for players who are likely but not guaranteed to be involved, making them an interesting tournament mixer

Miami Dolphins

Game Total: 39.0 / MIA +1.0 (19.0 imp)

Plays: 41.91% rush / 58.09% pass / 20.3 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 24.0 ppg / 7.51% sack / 1.04% int

Key Player: Tyler Huntley

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill (Q), Jaylen Waddle (Q), Jonnu Smith, Raheem Mostert (on/off), Malik Washington, Jeff Wilson Jr. (on/off), Julian Hill (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Davante Adams, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Tyler Conklin, Braelon Allen (on/off), Allen Lazard, Isaiah Davis (on/off)

Game Notes: The Dolphins are still alive in the playoff hunt, they are playing to win and the Jets are playing to spoil in what should be a competitive four-quarters game. The Dolphins get in with a win and a Denver loss.

Quarterback

Tyler Huntley led a surprisingly efficient Miami attack in Week 17, completing 22 of 26 pass attempts for 225 yards and a touchdown, keeping Miami alive for a playoff spot in the final week of the season. Huntley will have to be solid against the division-rival Jets, who allow just 7.0 yards per pass and 4.0 yards per rush attempt while sacking opposing quarterbacks at a 7.51% rate. The Dolphins have questionable tags on both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the latter of whom missed Week 17, but both are reportedly likely to play, enhancing the upside for Huntley. The quarterback ranks as QB 13 by points but QB6 by value at a fair price on DraftKings, he is QB14/14 on FanDuel where the price is current for his potential

Running Backs

De’Von Achane slipped for production in Week 17 after gaining 120 yards on 17 carries in Week 16 he posted just 25 on 10 opportunities and caught only two passes for 13 yards last week. Achane typically sees more involvement in the passing game, he picks up 5.4 targets each week and has six touchdown catches to balance his five rushing touchdowns. Achane gains 4.1 yards per rush attempt and 6.8 yards per target and has largely outperformed Raheem Mostert this season

Raheem Mostert is RB39/38 and RB44/42 and is mostly off the board outside of dart throw shares. Mostert carried the ball just six times for three yards last week, he has not seen double-digit carries since Week 9 and has not scored since Week 8

Receivers & Tight Ends

Tyreek Hill is dealing with injuries and missed practices late in the week but is likely to play, which is not new for the star receiver. Hill has six touchdown catches on 7.5 targets per game for the season and found success with Huntley in the Week 17 game. Hill caught all nine of his targets for 105 yards but did not score last week, leaving the lone touchdown to Jonnu Smith

Jaylen Waddle is also expected to play. Waddle missed Week 17, pushing targets in the direction of Hill and backup Malik Washington. Waddle has been held to limited performances throughout the season, gaining a solid 9.5 yards per target on 4.9 targets per game but posting just two touchdown catches all year

Jonnu Smith has seven touchdown catches on 6.2 targets per game as the team’s top tight end option. Smith is TE6 by points but TE27 by value at a $5,800 price on DraftKings, he is TE7 by points and TE13 by value on FanDuel this week

Malik Washington is WR95/99 and WR100/105 after seeing involvement last weekend. Washington would go back to a more prominent role if either Hill or Waddle miss this game but as the fourth option in the passing attack with volume needed for Achane as well, his appeal is very limited otherwise

Miami is Stack 13 by points but Stack 21 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 17 by points and Stack 24 by value on FanDuel this week

Minnesota Vikings – FanDuel only

Game Total: 56.5 / MIN +2.5 (27.0 imp)

Plays: 44.15% rush / 55.85% pass / 26.4 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 8.3 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass / 20.8 ppg / 5.79% sack / 2.81% int

Key Player: Sam Darnold

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones Sr., TJ Hockenson, Jalen Nailor, Cam Akers (on/off), Josh Oliver (on/off), Brandon Powell (large field; on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Tim Patrick, Kalif Raymond (large field), Craig Reynolds (on/off)

Quarterback

Sam Darnold is looking to cap a meteoric rise of a season by securing the NFC’s top seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs with a win on the other side of the late-night sledgehammer game on FanDuel in Week 18. Darnold has thrown 35 touchdowns against 12 interceptions this season, gaining 8.2 yards per pass attempt on 31.5 attempts per game. Darnold benefits from working with two of the best in the business with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison catching his passes, against a defense that allows 7.4 yards per pass attempt the trio should have plenty of chances to continue their strong group success. Darnold is QB1 across the board on FanDuel this week, he is an excellent option for stacking in +2 configurations with either high-end wide receiver, his running back, the tight end, or any combination of those options

Running Backs

Aaron Jones Sr. is RB6 by points and RB11 by value on FanDuel, the veteran has five rushing touchdowns and another two in the passing attack this season and gains a steady 4.5 yards per rush attempt on 15.3 carries and 6.8 yards per target on 3.5 targets per game. Jones is a fair value mixer at worst but it is understandable that pass-catchers and quarterbacks on both sides of this game are more highly prioritized around the industry. Jones is an involved pass-catcher out of the backfield but his overall action pales in comparison to that of the wide receivers in this offense

Cam Akers sees 6.1 carries and 1.1 targets per game and is never shy about poaching touchdowns, which he has managed five times this season with two on the ground and three in the passing game. Akers is a low-end dart throw as RB47/52

Receivers & Tight Ends

Justin Jefferson is WR1 by points and WR5 by value on FanDuel, he is one of the best options on the entire slate and is the most appealing way to deal a crushing blow from the late night game. Jefferson has 10 touchdown catches on the season and works downfield on an 11.2-yard average depth of target that puts him in range of big plays at all times. Jefferson dominates the team’s air yards with a 40.17% share on a team-leading 9.1 targets per game

Jordan Addison slots in with a 27.83% air yards share, second on the team but well behind the massive mark held by his counterpart. Addison is talented enough to be the top option on most teams but Jefferson is the clear 1 to his 1A in this situation. Addison has nine touchdowns on 6.6 targets per game this season and ranks as WR11 by points and WR12 by value in Week 18. There is enough upside for both wide receivers in a +2 configuration with Darnold, either can be played in skinny stacks or on his own as a standalone as well

TJ Hockenson should not be forgotten in an abundance of Minnesota stacks. The tight end ranks as TE5 across the board on FanDuel and slots in with a solid six targets per game, though he has failed to score in his limited time this season. Hockenson sees a solid 8.2-yard average depth of target that makes him one of the better downfield tight ends on the board each week, he has also seen regular targeting in the red zone despite failing to convert, picking up eight chances in his nine games played

Jalen Nailor is WR89/92 but spikes a higher ceiling than those marks might indicate. Nailor has an excellent 11.3-yard average depth of target that helps him outperform his 2.4 targets per game, particularly when that mark leaps to the five targets he saw in Week 17. Nailor caught all five passes, gaining 81 yards in his biggest day for volume and yardage this season, the touchdown he scored was his sixth of the year in a surprising scoring outburst, though it was his first in five games

The Vikings are a top priority team on FanDuel, they are Stack 3 by points and Stack 4 by value on the slate with Darnold rankings at the top of the quarterback position and Jefferson leading wide receivers by points on the blue site. With obvious run back plays in either direction this will be a popular but highly appealing spot for game stacking

New England Patriots

Game Total: 36.0 / NE +3.5 (16.25 imp)

Plays: 43.06% rush / 56.94% pass / 16.6 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 6.2 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 21.6 ppg / 6.48% sack / 2.92% int

Key Player: Drake Maye (Q)

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Antonio Gibson, Hunter Henry (Q), DeMario Douglass, Kayshon Boutte, Rhamondre Stevenson (on/off), Kendrick Bourne, Austin Hooper (on/off), Javon Baker (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Ray Davis, Frank Gore Jr., Keon Coleman, Tyrell Shavers, Ty Johnson (on/off), Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel, Quintin Morris (on/off)

Game Notes: This game is business as usual for the low-end Patriots but the Bills are not going to play starters for long, if they play at all

Quarterback

Drake Maye is QB14 by points and QB21 by value on DraftKings and does not rank better as QB16/24 on FanDuel. Maye has 15 touchdown passes against 10 interceptions in an up-and-down partial season. The quarterback gains 6.7 yards per pass attempt over 30.64 attempts per game and has built a steady but unspectacular connection with his receiving group, including Hunter Henry and DeMario Douglas, who has two touchdowns in the last three games

Running Backs

Antonio Gibson and Rhamondre Stevenson are low-end options who rank on the fringes of playability with Gibson out-snapping Stevenson 55-45% over the past two games. Gibson gains 4.6 yards per rush attempt on limited volume this season while Stevenson has posted just 3.9 yards per attempt as the more involved running back all year. Given the murky split situation and a limited amount of talent to begin with, this is an easy situation to simply skip

Receivers & Tight Ends

Hunter Henry is a playable TE4 by points and TE3 by value on DraftKings and TE6/TE4 on FanDuel in a short week at the position. Henry has two touchdowns this season but sees an excellent 6.1 targets per game as a top option for Maye. Henry is inexpensive for his volume at the position but he checks into Week 18 with a questionable tag while dealing with a foot injury

DeMario Douglas has three touchdowns, with two coming in the past three games despite failing to gain 50 yards in any of the three contests. Douglas had not scored since Week 6 prior to a Week 15 touchdown in a game that saw him catch three of three for 11 yards and the score. He caught four of five passes for 33 yards in Week 16 but failed to score before posting four catches for 46 yards and the touchdown last week on five targets. Douglas slots in as WR27/22 and WR32/32 across sites, he is a mix-and-match individual receiver

Kayshon Boutte ranks as WR46/58 and WR41/38 across sites, he is more appealing on FanDuel and should continue to play around 75% of the team’s snaps while drawing four or five targets. Boutte has two touchdowns and a solid 26.99% air yards share on a big-play 14.8-yard average depth of target

Kendrick Bourne sees just 3.3 chances per game and has only scored once this season, he is a mix-in option and a low end bolt-on to +2 builds

Austin Hooper would see an uptick in volume if Henry does not play, he has three touchdowns on 3.3 targets per game and could be more relevant than that even if Henry is active but quietly limited, Hooper is slightly more than a dart throw as a low volume tight end with a pulse

The Patriots are not a strong stack but they have viable pieces and parts. New England is Stack 19/19 on DraftKings and Stack 23/21 on FanDuel this week.

New Orleans Saints

Game Total: 45.5 / NO +14.0 (15.75 imp)

Plays: 43.86% rush / 56.14% pass / 19.9 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 22.9 ppg / 6.96% sack / 1.19% int

Key Player: Spencer Rattler

Setting: exactly one

Team Group: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kevin Austin Jr., Juwan Johnson, Dante Pettis, Foster Moreau, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jordan Mims, Cedrick Wilson Jr.

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, Rachaad White, Payne Durham, Ryan Miller (on/off)

Game Notes: Valdes-Scantling earns $250k with a touchdown catch

Quarterback

Spencer Rattler helms a low-end New Orleans passing game that lacks quality in all aspects going into Week 18. While one can expect the team to attempt to help Marquez Valdes-Scantling collect on his touchdown bonus, Rattler is unreliable for the delivery of even that one touchdown pass, he has three overall this season against five interceptions while gaining just 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Rattler is QB18 by points but technically climbs to QB10 by value at a very cheap DraftKings QB price, he is QB20/15 on FanDuel

Running Backs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is expected to lead the way for the New Orleans backfield this week, he is RB20 by points but RB7 by value for just $4,100 on DraftKings but is priced out as RB21/19 on FanDuel. Edwards-Helaire carried the ball five times for 20 yards last week and could play a more significant role in Week 18 with both Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller out

Jordan Mims was a healthy scratch last week but should see a few odds and ends for touches this week, he and backup Jamaal Williams will split the leftovers behind Edwards-Helaire if he succeeds but either could step forward if he fails early

Receivers & Tight Ends

Marquez Valdes-Scantling earns $250,000 with a touchdown catch, he has four on the season on the back of his excellent ability to get beat his man to get open down the field. “MVS” has a terrific 17.8-yard average depth of target that screams big play potential and ranks among the slate leaders but he is just WR53/57 and WR47/53 across sites this week

Kevin Austin Jr. has a 12.0-yard average depth of target on 3.0 targets per game and has failed to score in limited action

Juwan Johnson is a mix-in tight end as TE11/9 and TE13/16 and technically the most highly ranked Saints player on this slate. Johnson has three touchdowns on a solid 8.2-yard average depth of target over 3.7 targets per game, he spiked 10 targets in the absence of other options in Week 17, turning the volume into six catches for 66 yards but failing to score. Johnson is questionable coming into Sunday morning, Foster Moreau would see an uptick in opportunities if he does not play. Moreau is a low-ranked option but he has five surprising touchdowns this season

New Orleans is Stack 23 by points and Stack 17 by value on DraftKings, they rank worse as Stack 25/25 on FanDuel

New York Giants

Game Total: 36.5 / NYG +2.5 (17.0 imp)

Plays: 39.54% rush / 60.46% pass / 16.3 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 6.0 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.1 ypa pass / 18.1 ppg / 7.40% sack / 2.34% int

Key Player: Drew Lock

Setting: exactly one

Team Group: Malik Nabers, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, Daniel Bellinger, Jalin Hyatt, Devin Singletary (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Will Shipley, Johnny Wilson, Jahan Dotson, Ainias Smith, Tyrion Davis-Price, Parris Campbell, Grant Calcaterra

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Drew Lock led the terrible Giants to just enough quality to ensure that they would screw up their draft positioning for next season with a win last week. Lock’s 309 yards and four touchdown passes are unlikely to be replicated in Week 18, even if Philadelphia rests some of their defensive starters. The quarterback was partly carried to Week 17 glory by big plays from Malik Nabers but those still count and Nabers would be the top pairing with any Lock exposure as an almost mandatory stacking partner

Running Backs

Tyrone Tracy continues to lead the way while ceding a few key touches to Devin Singletary who was down to just 27% of the snaps last week. Tracy Jr. has five rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown this season and averages 4.4 yards per rush attempt, he is a fairly priced mid-range running back facing a quality defense as part of a mostly hapless offense. Tracy Jr. is RB12/RB12 and RB13/RB10 across sites

Receivers & Tight Ends

Malik Nabers caught seven passes for the second consecutive game in Week 17 but posted a dramatically different total than the 68 empty yards he came away with the week before. In his most recent outing, Nabers turned his seven catches into a huge 171 yards and two touchdowns that helped win slates and make Drew Lock look good. Nabers has six touchdowns while dominating targets and air yards for the Giants in his rookie season, his 41.09% air yards share is among the slate leaders but his 9.2-yard ADOT, while strong, is not the deepest of marks. Nabers sees a massive 11.6 targets per game as by far the leader on this team, though Wan’Dale Robinson’s 8.1 targets are also somewhat appealing when truly mining this team for options. Nabers is WR3 by points and WR14 by value on DraftKings and WR6 by points and WR18 by value on FanDuel this week

Wan’Dale Robinson averages 5.2 catches on 8.1 targets per game but sees just a 16.74% air yards share overall given his limited 5.1-yard average depth of target. As a short-yardage target, Robinson is held to red zone scoring opportunities or broken plays to find DFS value, making him a more challenging option for the money than receivers who operate further downfield. Robinson is WR24/19 and WR27/31, he is on the board but he is a lower-end option than his rankings might reveal

Darius Slayton is a mix-and-match receiver on the bubble of playability at WR62/63 and WR76/70, he has two touchdowns on the season but sees a solid 24.27% air yards share on a 13.1-yard ADOT that leads the team for deep strike attempts

The Giants are Stack 11 by points and value on DraftKings, they are Stack 12 by points and Stack 16 by value on FanDuel in Week 18

New York Jets

Game Total: 39.0 / NYJ -1.0 (20.0 imp)

Plays: 35.97% rush / 64.03% pass / 19.1 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass / 20.8 ppg / 5.64% sack / 1.68% int

Key Player: Aaron Rodgers

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Davante Adams, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Tyler Conklin, Braelon Allen (on/off), Allen Lazard, Isaiah Davis (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Jonnu Smith, Raheem Mostert (on/off), Malik Washington, Jeff Wilson Jr. (on/off), Julian Hill (on/off)

Game Notes: The Jets can only play spoiler to a division rival’s playoff chances in Week 18. Tyler Conklin earns $250,000 with one catch.

Quarterback

A week after putting up one of the lousiest quarterback games in recent memory, one wonders what Aaron Rodgers might have planned for a finale to his Jets career. The veteran has thrown 24 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions this season while gaining 6.6 yards per pass attempt and failing to win football games. Rodgers has a bigger mouth than an arm at this point in his career and the proof is firmly in the numbers, the quarterback was uninspiring with 112 yards on 12-18 passing in Week 17, it is difficult to recommend him for more than that this week but he does have solid weapons in Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson, as well as other capable skill players who deserve better

Running Backs

Breece Hall is RB8 by points and RB14 by value on DraftKings and RB16/25 on FanDuel where his price has not adjusted to a season with only 4.2 yards per rush attempt and seven total touchdowns. Hall has been good not great throughout the season, he is playable in and out of stacks but his limitation to just 49% of the snaps in Week 17 and the general lack of big play output and scoring has to be a concern

Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis split the remaining running back carries, they each have a touchdown this season but are no more than low-end dart throws

Receivers & Tight Ends

Davante Adams has seven touchdowns on the season and ranks highly for DFS scoring potential this week amidst the typical Jets chaos. Adams is WR4 by points and WR12 by value on DraftKings and lands as WR7/16 on the FanDuel slate where his reception total matters somewhat less. The veteran has a sturdy but unspectacular 8.1 yard average depth of target but still has big play upside and sees 9.9 targets on average. Each of Adams, Wilson, and tight end Tyler Conklin were targeted eight times in the low-end game last week, they could see similar volume and should be expected to produce more this week as the Jets try to spoil Miami’s playoff bid

Garrett Wilson is WR16 by points and WR18 by value on DraftKings and slots into FanDuel as WR23/25, he is a mixer similar to Adams but is the clear 1A in Rodgers’ mind. Wilson averages 9.3 targets per game and saw eight last week, he has seven touchdowns and outpaces Adams with a 36.48% air yards share that leads the team. Wilson is the more interesting receiver in a vacuum but Adams beats him on our rankings board

Tyler Conklin needs one catch for a quarter-million dollar bonus this season, given his 4.6 targets and 3.3 catches per game, one would expect him to get there but the tight end has gone missing in a few games this season. Conklin has three touchdowns and sees under a 10% air yards share, he is positional filler as TE14/17 and TE23/23

Allen Lazard has touchdown-dependent potential as a low-owned low-probability play with 5.2 targets per game. Lazard has five touchdowns this season and still has a connection with Rodgers and opportunities in the red zone. Lazard is off the radar but could find his way into the end zone with the ball in his hands if the Jets succeed at all in the passing game

The Jets are Stack 7 by points and Stack 14 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 10/18 on FanDuel, all of which requires faith in Aaron Rodgers which even the most ardent least-vaccinated fans of the Pat McAfee Show must be beginning to lack at this point

Philadelphia Eagles

Game Total: 36.5 / PHI -2.5 (19.5 imp)

Plays: 56.98% rush / 43.02% pass / 27.7 ppg / 5.0 ypa rush / 8.0 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass / 24.7 ppg / 8.51% sack / 1.08% int

Key Player:

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Will Shipley, Johnny Wilson, Jahan Dotson, Ainias Smith, Tyrion Davis-Price, Parris Campbell, Grant Calcaterra

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Malik Nabers, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, Daniel Bellinger, Jalin Hyatt, Devin Singletary (on/off)

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Tanner McKee is expected to start with Jalen Hurts out and Kenny Pickett questionable and more important. The Eagles have nothing to play for in this game and McKee will do what he can to beat the inept Giants with a squad full of backups. McKee completed three of four passes for 54 yards and threw two touchdowns over 21 snaps in Week 17, he will face a heavy pass rush but an otherwise terrible defense but he will not have the same quality weapons on offense

Running Backs

These rankings have been updated to reflect a switch in our projections from expectations that Gainwell would be less involved to relegating Shipley to second duties, assuming he plays after clearing concussion protocol, with Gainwell in the lead role. Projections and rankings have been updated accordingly.

Kenneth Gainwell is an interesting option who ranks as RB17/20 and RB18/15 in our updated projections. Gainwell is an experienced slippery back who gains 4.3 yards per attempt in his limited action this season, he could have a strong day with enough volume against a low-end Giants defense that allows 4.7 yards per rush attempt

Will Shipley should play after clearing concussion protocol, he still carries a medium-grade projection and is a mix-in value dart as RB37/31 and RB35/24 with upside for more depending on how the volume breaks.

Tyrion Davis-Price is now not expected to be with the team, he has been removed from the updated projections

Receivers & Tight Ends

The Eagles receiver room is filled with backups this week, with both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith taking a seat alongside Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. Johnny Wilson is an option to lead the way in the passing attack despite seeing just 0.7 targets per game throughout the season. Wilson is the most reasonable facsimile of the team’s star receivers, given his 11.0-yard average depth of target, not that anyone would mistake him for one of those two. Wilson has one touchdown catch in his limited work this year

Jahan Dotson has seen 1.4 targets per game while suiting up throughout the season and playing more than half of the team’s snaps. He has caught 0.8 passes per game and has failed to score all season. This is not a good receiver but his volume should go up in Week 18

Ainias Smith is WR68/44 and WR68/40, he is an economical option for a few low-probability targets but he has not seen involvement all season and is difficult to predict or project going into Week 18

Parris Campbell sees 1.6 targets per game, as does backup tight end Grant Calcaterra, who should see steady action even with starter Dallas Goedert active and expected to play at least part of the game to ramp up before the playoffs after missing several weeks

The Eagles are a low-end play this week as Stack 22 by points but Stack 9 by value on DraftKings and Stack 24/11 on FanDuel but they could be a reasonable source of value options across their skill positions

Seattle Seahawks

Game Total: 38.5 / SEA -7.5 (23.0 imp)

Plays: 36.75% rush / 63.25% pass / 21.6 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass / 22.3 ppg / 6.53% sack / 2.52% int

Key Player: Geno Smith

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Zach Charbonnet, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf, Noah Fant, Kenny McIntosh, Noah Fant, Tyler Lockett

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Jordan Whittington, Tyler Johnson, Tutu Atwell, Blake Corum, Cody Schrader (on/off), Xavier Smith, Davis Allen (on/off)

Game Notes: Geno Smith earns two million dollars with a Seahawks win and another two million if he throws for more than 186 yards in this game, he averages 256.06 per game. Smith also earns yet another $2M with a completion rate of 69.7% or better, he comes into Sunday at 70.2%

Quarterback

Geno Smith has his starting receivers and six million dollars on the line that says he is going to be passing the ball frequently and accurately in this matchup. Smith draws the Rams defense for his bonus payout game, their 7.5 yards allowed per pass this season should work in the quarterback’s favor. Smith has thrown 17 touchdowns and an ugly 15 interceptions in a high-volume passing game this season, he averages 7.4 yards per pass attempt while throwing 34.4 times per game and posting excellent yardage marks but limited scoring output. Smith is QB6 by points and QB3 by value on DraftKings, he is QB8/9 on the FanDuel slate

Running Backs

Zach Charbonnet slots in as a strong play as RB7 by points and RB16 by value on DraftKings and RB10/17 on FanDuel in place of Kenneth Walker once again. Charbonnet gains 4.2 yards per rush attempt and 5.9 per target and has nine touchdowns total this season

Kenny McIntosh will see the scraps behind Charbonnet’s production, he played 25% of the snaps to the starter’s 75% share in Week 17 and no changes should be expected in a competitive game

Receivers & Tight Ends

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has seized the lead role in the Seattle passing game with 8.3 targets per contest on a 9.1-yard ADOT for 31.22% of the team’s air yards and a team-leading six touchdown receptions. Smith-Njigba is WR9/13 on DraftKings and WR13/23 on FanDuel, he is highly playable and should be involved at typical volume throughout the game with Seattle playing to win

DK Metcalf has four touchdowns and a team-leading 36.16% air yards share on a 12.8-yard average depth of target over 7.4 chances per game. Metcalf has slipped to the second option in the passing game but that means he comes somewhat cheaper and falls into lineups at slightly reduced popularity. The receiver is WR17 by points but WR11 by value on DraftKings and WR19/26 on FanDuel this week

Noah Fant is TE12/12 and TE14/14 he is a mix-in option with 4.5 targets per game but has failed to score this season

Tyler Lockett is the more interesting depth option, he is a sturdy number three after years of being the second option in this passing attack. Lockett has two touchdowns and a solid 10.2-yard average depth of target for his 4.4 looks per game. The receiver is WR42/34 and WR62/66 across sites in Week 18

AJ Barner is a second-string tight end with three touchdowns on 2.1 targets per game in limited action, he is unlikely to see upside but could pick up a random red zone target that leads to a cheap score

The Seahawks are Stack 5 by points and Stack 6 by value on DraftKings and Stack 8/15 on the FanDuel slate where they are more expensive

San Francisco 49ers

Game Total: 43.0 / SF +4.5 (19.25 imp)

Plays: 45.02% rush / 54.98% pass / 22.8 ppg / 4.7 ypa rush / 8.4 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass / 22.2 ppg / 7.29% sack / 1.41% int

Key Player: Joshua Dobbs

Setting: exactly one

Team Group: Jauan Jennings, Isaac Guerendo, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, Patrick Taylor Jr. (on/off), Chris Conley, Jacob Cowing, Kyle Juszczyk (on/off), Eric Saubert (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Carter, Zay Jones, DeeJay Dallas (on/off), Greg Dortch, Elijah Higgins, Zach Pascal (large field)

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Joshua Dobbs ranks as QB15 by points but QB1 by value on DraftKings, he is QB17/8 on a very different FanDuel slate. Dobbs will start in place of Brock Purdy but the 49ers are expected to play their typical starters throughout otherwise, making this an interesting spot for the dynamic quarterback. Dobbs threw four passes in the team’s Week 17 game, completing three for 35 yards and zero scores. Dobbs was relevant across games with Arizona and Minnesota last season, throwing for 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions with more than 2,400 yards but only 5.9 per attempt. Dobbs adds value in the ground game, he had six rushing touchdowns while gaining 5.5 yards per attempt last season

Running Backs

Isaac Guerendo is RB10/10 on DraftKings and RB8/15 on FanDuel, he gains 5.1 yards per rush attempt and should lead the 49ers backfield with ease in Week 18. Guerendo has four rushing touchdowns this season but was held to just 34 yards on nine carries last week after missing Week 16, his big game came in Week 14 when he carried the ball 15 times for 78 yards and a pair of touchdowns

Patrick Taylor Jr. and Kyle Juszczyk will touch the ball a few times each with the latter more prominently involved in the passing game, they have three touchdowns between them and are no more than a bad gamble as DFS plays

Receivers & Tight Ends

Jauan Jennings had a disappointing Week 17 after a lower-end Week 16 but he remains a top option for this passing game. Jennings has six touchdown catches on 7.4 targets per game for the season and his failure to produce scoring last week was not for lack of trying, he caught seven of 10 targets but gained just 67 yards while watching Ricky Pearsall have a better game

Ricky Pearsall is WR32/30 and WR34/30 across sites, he is in play for Week 18 and could provide another solid performance after a 141-yard eight-catch performance that got him into the end zone for the first time since Week 10 in the team’s most recent game. Pearsall sees 3.8 targets on average, the uptick was not entirely expected but makes sense in the absence of Deebo Samuel. Pearsall and Jennings are reasonably affordable +2 options in stacks with Dobbs

Tight end George Kittle is an excellent play for touchdown upside, he has eight on the season and sees 6.5 targets per game overall. Kittle has not found the end zone since Week 12 but has posted 100-yard games in two straight and three of his last four outings. Kittle is TE3 by points but TE15 by value on DraftKings and TE4/TE11 on FanDuel in Week 18

The 49ers are Stack 9 by points and Stack 5 by value on DraftKings, they rank as Stack 9 by points but slip to Stack 13 by value on FanDuel where the skill players are more expensive

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Game Total: 45.5 / TB -14.0 (29.75 imp)

Plays: 43.88% rush / 56.12% pass / 29.7 ppg / 5.2 ypa rush / 7.9 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass / 23.2 ppg / 6.37% sack / 2.33% int

Key Player: Baker Mayfield

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, Rachaad White, Payne Durham, Ryan Miller (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kevin Austin Jr., Juwan Johnson, Dante Pettis, Foster Moreau, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jordan Mims, Cedrick Wilson Jr.

Game Notes: Tampa Bay is playing to win, they clinch the NFC South with a win/tie or an Atlanta loss. Additionally, Baker Mayfield earns $500k if he finishes in the top-10 in yards per pass attempt and currently ranks 8th, while Mike Evans needs five catches and 85 yards for a three million dollar bonus and to tie Jerry Rice with 11 straight seasons of 1,000 or more yards while continuing his streak of gaining that many yards every year in his career

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield is on the cusp of a 40+ touchdown season that few would have predicted. Mayfield has been tremendous and has won or contributed to winning several DFS slates this season, he might not be finished yet with both something to play for on a team level and with big bonuses and records for him and his favorite receiver Mike Evans. The incentives are simply discussion points, they do not factor into our projections but the Mayfield-Evans pairing comes up as one of the top options of the week once again with no artificial nudging in a matchup against a New Orleans defense allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt for the season. Mayfield is QB1 by points and QB7 by value on DraftKings and QB2/4 on FanDuel, he is one of the top options of the week atop one of the top stacks of the week once again.

Running Backs

Bucky Irving is rounding out a tremendous rookie season in style as RB3/2 on DraftKings and RB3/3 on FanDuel, he has seven rushing touchdowns and has gained ground with each passing week. Irving is up to 5.5 yards per rush attempt and an average of 11.8 carries per game after seeing 15, 16, and 20 carries over the last three weeks. Irving gained 113 yards on the ground on those 20 carries last week, adding another 77 yards on four catches. The running back is a terrific option both in and out of stacks, he is a good way to get to the Tampa Bay offense in a soft matchup when not stacking the quarterback-receiver combination

Rachaad White saw just one target in the passing game while playing only 36% of the snaps last week with the team seemingly finally admitting that Irving was the stronger choice all along. White has six touchdown catches on the season and punched the ball in three times on the ground but his value always was more in as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, a role he can serve on more limited shares of the offense going forward. White is RB21/28 and RB27/30 across sites in Week 18

Receivers & Tight Ends

Mike Evans has gained 1,000 or more yards every year of his career up until this season, he comes into Week 18 short of the mark by 85 yards. If he gets to his 1,000 yards, which the team will almost certainly ensure he does, Evans will tie Jerry Rice with 11 consecutive seasons of that level of production, while continuing his streak. He will also earn a $3,000,000 bonus if those 85 yards come on five or more catches. Evans is a tremendous play with or without the incentives, they are not included in any way in our projections and he ranks as WR1/5 on DraftKings and WR2/2 on FanDuel, despite missing several games the veteran has 11 touchdowns on the season and is coming off of a two-touchdown performance

Jalen McMillan is WR22/28 and WR26/29 across sites, he is a solid mixer as a standalone alternative to Evans from this passing attack and he makes a good +2 pairing with the top receiver. McMillan is up to seven touchdowns on a solid 12.2-yard average depth of target while filling in admirably for injured Chris Godwin.

Payne Durham is a cheap tight end option as TE13/7 and TE11/8, he has one touchdown on the board this season on limited volume and is coming off a three-target game in the absence of Cade Otton, though Ryan Miller is another option at the position who saw four targets on fewer snaps last week

Tampa Bay is Stack 1 by points and Stack 4 by value on DraftKings, on FanDuel they are Stack 2 by points and Stack 1 by value this week, the Mayfield-Irving-Evans combination is alive and well, though our share of Evans may come as a standalone alongside the late night sledgehammer gamestack on FanDuel

Tennessee Titans

Game Total: 36.5 / TEN -1.0 (18.75 imp)

Plays: 43.0% rush / 57.0% pass / 18.6 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass / 22.4 ppg / 8.17% sack / 3.60% int

Key Player: Will Levis / Mason Rudolph

Setting: exactly one

Team Group: Tony Pollard (Q), Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Julius Chestnut (on/off), Josh Whyle, Jha’Quan Jackson, Bryce Oliver

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Nico Collins, Dameon Pierce, Joe Mixon (on/off, limited), John Metchie III, Xavier Hutchinson, Diontae Johnson, Dare Ogunbowale (on/off), Robert Woods (large field; on/off)

Game Notes: Tony Pollard earns $500k with 83 rushing yards and two touchdowns, with an even split of 250 for the yards and 250 for the two touchdowns

Quarterback

The Titans are expected to let both Will Levis, who will start, and Mason Rudolph take turns at the wheel in Week 17, which could render both essentially unplayable. More so. Levis is QB12 by points but QB8 by value in a fully projected game but comes down somewhat if we draw his playing time down, he is QB15/5 on the FanDuel slate but the apparent value is likely less than the actual value. Levis has thrown a dozen touchdowns and a matching number of interceptions this season, but he has Calvin Ridley to help him find upside on the right day

Running Backs

Tony Pollard is 83 yards shy of a half-million dollar payday, he will play at least until he reaches that mark to conclude a strong season. Pollard gained 4.3 yards per rush attempt and scored five times on the ground while failing to reach paydirt despite 4.2 yard per target on 3.8 targets per game in the passing attack

Julius Chestnut will play second fiddle to Pollard with Tyjae Spears out, he sees little value unless Pollard sits after carrying a questionable tag all week. Chestnut gains 4.6 yards per attempt in his limited work.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Calvin Ridley is WR13 by points and WR4 by value on DraftKings and WR15/7 for a fair FanDuel price. The veteran receiver has four touchdowns but major any-given-slate big play upside with a 15.1-yard average depth of target that leads to a 49.26% air yards share when it collides with his 7.2 targets per game. Ridley has the most dominant portion of his team’s offense on the slate but his offense is one of the more limited attacks on the slate, which caps the true upside of the play despite the gaudy numbers

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine slots in as WR49/66 and WR45/45 despite his run of touchdowns. The receiver now has nine scores on the season, all of which came after Week 5. Westbrook-Ikhine caught a touchdown pass each week from Week 6 through Week 9, missed scoring in Week 10, caught four touchdowns over the next three games, but has now caught only one touchdown over the last four games on seven total catches over 13 targets in that stretch

Josh Whyle slots in as not much more than a dart throw at tight end in the absence of Chig Okonkwo, the team’s remaining options are similarly unappealing

The Titans are Stack 18 by points and Stack 8 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 19/10 on the FanDuel slate but they are probably best deployed individually

Washington Commanders

Game Total: 44.0 / WAS -6.5 (25.25 imp)

Plays: 48.57% rush / 51.43% pass / 28.9 ppg / 4.9 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 8.0 ypa pass / 27.8 ppg / 8.73% sack / 2.70% int

Key Player: Jayden Daniels

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Terry McLaurin, Austin Ekeler, Brian Robinson Jr., Olamide Zaccheaus, Zach Ertz, Jamison Crowder, Dyami Brown, Ben Sinnott (on/off), Luke McCaffrey (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Rico Dowdle, Jalen Tolbert, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks, KaVontae Turpin, Jonathan Mingo, Luke Schoonmaker (on/off), Ryan Flournoy (large field), Jalen Brooks (large field)

Game Notes: The Commanders would drop from the sixth to seventh seed with a loss and a Packers win but they have locked a playoff berth. Zach Ertz earns $250k each for: nine catches, 90 yards, and/or two touchdown catches in this game

Quarterback

Jayden Daniels has 25 touchdown passes against just nine interceptions and adds six rushing touchdowns to his total in a tremendous rookie season that is not quite complete. Daniels has his team in the playoffs but they could slip from six to seven with a loss and a Packers win, meaning they are likely to do the small amount that should be required to beat the lousy Cowboys. Daniels is projected for a full start but he could cede time to backups in the fourth quarter of a blowout, in which case he has probably still paid off scoring requirements. Daniels is QB3 by points but QB24 by value on DraftKings and lands similarly as QB5/QB19 on FanDuel

Running Backs

Brian Robinson Jr. played just 54% of the team’s snaps last week and 52% on average and Austin Ekeler is back in the mix this week with the team looking to spell Robinson ahead of the postseason. Robinson is the clear lead in normal circumstances but Ekeler, or by extension either of Jeremy McNichols or Chris Rodriguez, could succeed in Week 18. Robinson is RB28/36 and RB33/43 on the presumption of limited action in Week 18

Austin Ekeler is RB23/24 and RB28/9 as a very cheap FanDuel option. The running back gains 4.8 yards per rush attempt over 6.7 carries per game and has four rushing touchdowns this season. Ekeler also sees action in the pass game, drawing 3.5 targets each week and gaining an excellent 8.9 yards per target, though he has not scored on a passing play this season

McNichols is RB66/66 and RB71/74 but if volume swings in his direction he would be a fair bet for production given the explosive nature of his running game and 4.7 yards per rush attempt this season

Receivers & Tight Ends

Terry McLaurin is by far the most appealing option from the Commanders passing game but he could also be held in check somewhat later in this game. McLaurin is under-projected as WR11/27 on DraftKings and WR14/22 on FanDuel but he could hit a far higher ceiling even in limited first half action. The receiver has 12 touchdowns and a solid 40.87% air yards share on a 13.8-yard average depth of target that leads to big play performances

Olamide Zaccheaus is WR39/54 and WR39/49 across sites, he has three touchdowns on the season and is a short-yardage explosive play option in the passing game

Zach Ertz needs a big but not unattainable day to reach several payout incentives, he is one of the more “chasey” incentive-discussion options of the day and ranks as just TE7 by points and TE10 by value on DraftKings and TE9/10 on FanDuel. Ertz is playable, he does have six touchdowns on the season and a solid 5.4 targets per game but chasing him for nine or more catches and two or more scores is a bit of a stretch

Jamison Crowder and Dyami Brown could take a step forward if their teammates rest later in the game but they are difficult to project for more than a middling score ahead of those decisions

The Commanders are Stack 16 by points and Stack 24 by value on DraftKings and Stack 18/26 on FanDuel, given the uncertainty surrounding the depth to which their starters will play

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Content Creator:

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Terry is the founder of rotoscouts, he has more than 20 years of experience in daily and season-long fantasy sports. Terry has helped to create industry-leading DFS content for the past few years while sharing his expertise in MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, and more.

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NHL DFS Projections – DraftKings & FanDuel – Monday – 1/6

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NHL DFS Projections – DraftKings & FanDuel – Sunday – 1/5

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NFL DFS – Main Slate Optimizer Groups & Stack Rankings + Game Notes (complete) – Week 18

Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning

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2024 Week 18 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings

Week 18 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups

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Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 18

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Detroit Lions – FanDuel only

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Minnesota Vikings – FanDuel only

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