The Monday main slate has just seven games on both DraftKings and FanDuel this evening, with a 7:20 ET start time on both sites affording MLB DFS gamers a few bonus minutes for roster tinkering. The slate includes a few targetable young starters, a bullpen game, and a Coors Field game, there should be significant opportunities for creating runs and fantasy scoring at the plate, though only one team is really breaking through the “likely power output” ceiling. The path to quality on the mound appears to be far narrower, which should make for a fun slate filled with interesting combinations of stacks, hitters, and starters.
Main Slate Power Index – 5/22/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column averages our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their most significant bats.
The Braves are at home with the Dodgers in town for what should be a great series to start the week. Los Angeles has taken some bumps in its rotation and will have rookie Gavin Stone on the hill for just his second appearance. The highly-regarded prospect debuted in early May with a four-inning start in which he was charged with four earned runs and allowed five total on eight hits while walking two and striking out one. Stone has made eight AAA starts this season, he has a 4.77 xFIP with a 27.5% strikeout rate, last year he had a 35% strikeout rate over 96.2 innings between AA and AAA and was reasonably good at limiting power upside. The Power Index sees Stone as a bit of a target on the back of a short sample and the massive upside for power in the Braves lineup. Atlanta is looking like one of the lead teams on the board, they have a 5.24-run implied team total, the highest non-Coors total on tonight’s slate. Atlanta’s outrageous lineup has been featured in this space numerous times already this year and they will be back again many times between now and the end of the season, they are almost unfairly good at hitting home runs. Ronald Acuna Jr. has 11 homers and 18 stolen bases in 209 plate appearances this year. The superstar has created runs 76% better than average for the season while slashing a massive .344/.431/.600 with a .256 ISO, a 16.6% barrel rate, and a 54.3% hard-hit rate, the only thing Acuna does not do well on the field is defense and that is only for lack of effort. Matt Olson has 13 home runs to lead the Braves, he is sitting at a team-leading 15.80 in our home run model, better than half-again on top of the magic number. Acuna is right on Olson’s heels at 15.44 in the leadoff spot and catcher Sean Murphy slots in third with a 13.12 in the home run model. Murphy has already hit 10 longballs this season, he has a .289 ISO and has created runs 60% better than average as baseball’s most valuable offensive catcher over the season’s first quarter. The premium contact that the Braves establish early and often is ridiculous, after Acuna’s impressive numbers Olson has a 22.4% barrel rate and 56.1% hard hits, Murphy has a 20.2% barrel rate and 45.5% hard hits, and third baseman Austin Riley slots into the cleanup spot with a 43.3% hard-hit rate. Riley has bumped along for a few weeks now, last season he was right with the rest of his power-hitting pals at a 15.7% barrel rate and 50.8% hard hits while blasting 38 home runs with a .255 ISO, this year he has just seven and a .152 ISO in 202 plate appearances. Riley is cheap for the struggles at $4,900/$2,900 and he still carries a robust 12.36 in our home run model going into this one. Eddie Rosario is slashing .241/.273/.398 with a .158 ISO and four home runs, he has a 7.03 in the home run model as the lone dip below the magic number from the team’s core hitters. Ozzie Albies bounces back up above that level at 10.49, he has 10 home runs already as one of the top second basemen for MLB DFS purposes. Marcell Ozuna has hit eight home runs but is slashing just .204/.297/.434 and creating runs five percent below average. Orlando Arcia is a frequently forgotten friend of contrarian lineup builders from late in the Atlanta batting order. Arcia costs just $3,600/$3,000 and is never popular. He is a shortstop on DraftKings but comes with three-position eligibility between shortstop, second base, and third base, making him a dynamite way to offset pricing, popularity, and positioning throughout combinations of Atlanta hitters. Arcia is no slouch at the plate, he is slashing .310/.368/.529 with a .218 ISO and 142 WRC+ over 95 plate appearances, and he has hit four home runs this season. Last year, the infielder made 234 plate appearances and hit nine home runs while slashing .244/.316/.416 with a .172 ISO, so the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but Arcia is not a useless late lineup infielder. Michael Harris II has not gotten in gear after missing the early part of the season with an injury, over 91 plate appearances he is slashing .171/.253/.256 with a 41 WRC+ and four stolen bases, but a .085 ISO and only one home run. Arcia checks in with a 6.54 in our home run model, Harris is the low-man on the team at 5.71 but he hit 19 as a rookie last season and has a solid bat that should function well in a wraparound role for $3,300/$2,700.
The second-rated team on the board is the interesting Giants lineup, which will be in Minnesota to face Bailey Ober and the Twins this evening. Ober is a righty who will be making his sixth start of the season, over 30.1 innings he has allowed just a 1.72% home run rate with 34.6% hard hits while pitching to a 1.78 ERA, which does not make him sound like much of a target for bats. Under the surface, Ober has allowed a 9.9% barrel rate and 89.9 mph of average exit velocity with a 4.56 xFIP, and he is a flyball-oriented starter with a 24.6-degree average launch angle allowed this year and 19.5 degrees last year. In his 56 innings and 11 starts in 2022, Ober had a similarly low 1.76% home run rate allowed, but he gave up 90.1 mph of average exit velocity and an 11.7% barrel rate. There is an upside for power against this starter that has been untapped in small samples the past two seasons, in 2021 Ober threw 92.1 innings in 20 starts and allowed a 5.28% home run rate with 89.1 mph of average exit velocity and a 9.5% barrel rate, which sounds similar to this season’s contact profile. The Giants lineup does not feature a hitter above the 10-mark in our home run model, but their average is pressed up the board by six hitters that land between 7.96 and 9.96. The top mark is carried by leadoff man LaMonte Wade Jr. who has seven home runs and a 155 WRC+ with a .218 ISO in 162 plate appearances this year. Wade has an 11.3% barrel rate and 41.2% hard-hit rate and is excellent at staying involved in the team’s offense even when he is not hitting one over the wall. The first baseman has a 17.9% strikeout rate and an outstanding 19.8% walk rate while slashing .258/.425/.476, he is an asset against right-handed pitching. Thairo Estrada has created runs 30% better than average and has hit six home runs with 12 stolen bases this season, he is a strong play in the infield but costs $5,700/$3,700 as by far the team’s most expensive hitter today. Estrada has earned the salary and teammates like Wade are inexpensive ($3,200/$2,900) so it is easy to combine Estrada with any other hitters in this lineup, everyone else on the DraftKings slate is priced at or below $3,800 on DraftKings, and $3,300 on FanDuel. JD Davis has eight home runs with a .209 ISO and 135 WRC+ over 161 plate appearances and he sports an excellent 52.5% hard-hit rate in the heart of the lineup at a cheap price. Michael Conforto has eight home runs and has created runs exactly at league average while barreling 10.4% of his batted-ball events and posting a .188 ISO in 161 chances. Conforto has not found his hit tool since returning from an extended absence, he is slashing just .210/.317/.399 but the power is nice against a righty and he should hit more going forward. Conforto has a 9.60 to rank second on the team in our home run model today. Mitch Haniger has an 8.79 in the home run model, he has hit just two this season in 79 plate appearances but he is another player who has missed a significant amount of time between last year and the start of this season. Haniger hit 39 home runs in 2021, he is a star power hitter when he is healthy, as evidenced by his 54.7% hard-hit rate in his small sample so far this year. Mike Yastrzemski costs $3,800/$3,100 in the outfield, the lefty has five home runs with a .200 ISO and 108 WRC+ so far this season. Casey Schmitt has multi-position eligibility at a cheap price on the DraftKings slate, he has two home runs and a .213 ISO in 47 plate appearances since his callup and is pulling in a 5.61 in our home run model. Blake Sabol has hit five home runs with a .191 ISO and 121 WRC+ in 102 plate appearances as a sneaky-good cheap catcher option from this team. Sabol has a 10.9% barrel rate and 43.6% hard-hit rate this year, he is an option for $3,400/$2,800 with catcher and outfield eligibility on both sites tonight. Brandon Crawford costs $2,500 at shortstop on both sites, the veteran is slashing just .161/.232/.310 with a .149 ISO and 50 WRC+ but has hit four home runs in his 95 plate appearances.
