A mid-sized seven-game slate gets started at 7:05 ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight with a fairly loaded pitching board that is somewhat limited for power and expectations of run creation tonight. There is no Coors Field game on tonight’s slate and no run total in Vegas for this slate is above the 9.5 listed for the Mariners vs Red Sox game in Boston, a series in which we have seen fireworks the past two days. That game stands a half-run above the matchup between the Rays and Mets with all of the other games checking in between 7.5 and 8.5. Two of the more obvious-looking spots for home run upside are atop the Power Index, while the Blue Jays rating is somewhat deceptive as it is indicating individual home run upside against an ace who gives up home runs here and there, and is not a major spot for stacking, which is always the important nuance of this tool.
Main Slate Power Index – 5/17/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column averages our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their most significant bats.
The Astros appear to be in a good position today in a matchup against veteran lefty Drew Smyly while also reflecting the state of tonight’s Power Index quite well. Smyly has not been great over his eight starts, but he has also not been terrible, and he has not allowed a tremendous amount of power so far this year. The lefty has a 3.05 ERA but a 4.46 xFIP under the covers and he is striking out a roughly average 21.6% of opposing hitters with a 0.97 WHIP while allowing just a 2.27% home run rate on 85.1 mph of average exit velocity. Smyly has limited premium contact to just 6.3% barrels and a 28.6% hard-hit rate for the year. Last season, Smyly posted a 3.47 ERA and 4.18 xFIP while allowing a 3.58% home run rate on 86.7 mph of average exit velocity on an 8.6% barrel rate and 34.5% hard-hit. The lefty can be gotten to by good opposing hitting, but he is not a complete gas can on the mound. The Astros’ home run ratings are being lifted by the presence of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, the team’s left-handed star hitters, who check in at 13.96 and 12.29 in our home run model tonight. The rest of the team is below our magic number for power, but there are several interesting bats tonight, and they could be a good option for stacking with the idea of some run scoring if not power against this pitcher. The projected lineup begins with Mauricio Dubon, who has zero home runs this year with a 99 WRC+ in 155 plate appearances, Dubon is primarily a correlated scoring piece, a Jose Altuve he is not. Alex Bregman has five home runs on the year but just a .134 ISO with a five percent barrel rate and 33% hard-hit rate while slashing .210/.328/.344. The former star third baseman comes cheap at $4,200/$2,800 but has not been his old self at the plate all season. Alvarez has nine home runs with a .275 ISO, a 15.6% barrel rate, and a 53.1% hard-hit rate this year, Tucker has slumped to just a .169 ISO with six home runs, an 8.6% barrel rate, and a 45.3% hard-hit rate this year but can be relied upon for a turnaround. Jose Abreu has been powerless since late last summer, but the total disappearance of all of his other skills at the plate is the primary concern. Abreu hit just 15 home runs last year and zero after mid-August, but still finished his last season in Chicago at .304/.378/.446 with a 137 WRC+ in 679 plate appearances. Over his first 171 plate appearances in an Astros uniform, Abreu is slashing just .219/.269/.263 with a .044 ISO and 47 WRC+. Jeremy Pena his 22 home runs last year with a .173 ISO, he has six with a .168 ISO in 174 plate appearances so far in 2023 and makes a solid shortstop option in the heart of the Houston lineup. Corey Julks has a 6.38 in our home run model, he has hit two over 111 plate appearances but has a .103 ISO with a 2.6% barrel rate and 36.8% hard-hit rate for the season. Chas McCormick has a 2.3% barrel rate and 30.2% hard-hit for the season, well off of his typically sturdy contact, but he has made just 64 plate appearances after dealing with an injury. McCormick has two home runs and four stolen bases and is cheap from late in the lineup on DraftKings at $3,400, for some reason he is priced at $3,700 on FanDuel, making him the team’s second-most expensive player behind Alvarez and $600 more expensive than Tucker, which is just bananas. Martin Maldonado has a pair of home runs in 110 plate appearances this season, he hit 15 last year in 379 and 12 the season before in 426, he has intermittent slate-bending power and is never popular.
The White Sox are at home to face the division-rival Guardians and Peyton Battenfield tonight. The righty has made five starts in his young career, throwing 30.1 innings and pitching to a 4.45 ERA and 4.56 xFIP with a 20.2% strikeout rate and an 8.9% walk rate. Battenfield has induced a good 12.6% swinging-strike rate with a 27.5% CSW% but he has allowed far too much premium contact to this point, with a 13.6% barrel rate, 50% hard hits, and a whopping 93.9 mph of average exit velocity. That has amounted to a 3.23% home run rate against the starter this year that feels like it should be somewhat higher, Battenfield has allowed a 12.4-degree average launch angle that is keeping him afloat to a degree, but the rookie is targetable for power upside and run creation. The White Sox underperforming lineup has Tim Anderson in the projected leadoff spot as usual. The star shortstop is slashing just .257/.299/.307 with a .050 ISO and zero home runs with five stolen bases in 107 plate appearances after missing time. Andrew Benintendi has also been entirely devoid of power upside so far this season. The outfielder was never a major power hitter, but he managed to knock 17 over the fence in 538 plate appearances two years ago before plummeting to just five in 521 last year. This season, Benintendi has a .066 ISO, zero home runs, a 3.2% barrel rate, and a 27.2% hard-hit rate in 165 plate appearances. Luis Robert Jr. has provided all of the power for this team so far this season, the outfielder is having a major breakout with 12 home runs and a .299 ISO with a 142 WRC+ in his 173 plate appearances. Robert has not stolen as many bases as we were expecting in preseason projections, but it hardly matters if he is going to rake like this all year. He is still cheap on the DraftKings slate at $3,800/$3,600 and he leads the team with a 10.38 in our home run model tonight. The other player over the magic number is Andrew Vaughn, who lands at 10.08 in the model. Vaughn is projected to hit fifth after Yoan Moncada, who lands at 7.84 in the cleanup spot. Moncada has two home runs and a .241 ISO with a 43.6% hard-hit rate in his 57 plate appearances this season, he hit 12 home runs but had just a .141 ISO and 76 WRC+ in 433 opportunities last year. The third baseman is still only about to turn 28, it is not out of the question that his best days for MLB production are arriving. Vaughn has four home runs this year but just a .168 ISO, he has created runs six percent better than average but has not had the big breakout Chicago wanted. He does have a sturdy 8.7% barrel rate and 46.8% hard-hit rate this year and he puts the ball in play frequently, with a .287 batting average on balls in play. Vaugh is followed in the projected lineup by Gavin Sheets, who has hit five home runs in 103 plate appearances this year. Sheets has a 9.71 in the home run model, the third-best mark on the team tonight. The lefty is an outfielder on DraftKings for $2,500 and adds eligibility at first base for the same price on the blue site which gives him nice flexibility. He hit 15 home runs in 410 plate appearances last year and 11 in just 179 in 2021, so the early power display is not out of order. Yasmani Grandal has a .286/.361/.437 triple-slash with three home runs and a 123 WRC+ over 133 plate appearances, the cheap catcher can be played on both sites when stacking White Sox. Jake Burger has an 8.22 in our home run model tonight and he slots in at third base for just $2,800/$3,000. Burger has hit nine home runs and has a .427 ISO in his 85 plate appearances this season, with a ridiculous 22.4% barrel rate but somehow only 49% (still very good) hard hits. Burger hit eight home runs in 183 plate appearances last year, he and Sheets are both post-hype power prospects who never truly arrived and are now playing well in their age 27-28 seasons, they could form a club with Brent Rooker. The projected lineup closes out with Hanser Alberto who has three oddball home runs this year and a .206 ISO in 69 plate appearances after hitting just two home runs in each of the last two seasons in a combined 414 plate appearances. Alberto has a telling 2.86 in our home run model.
