The nine-game Saturday main slate features MLB DFS action that leans toward the options at the plate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Several of the top teams in the league for DFS scoring and star power are drawing significant projections in our home run model and for run creation, but there are fewer reliable options on the mound. A few of the obvious brand-name starters are going to garner most of the attention from the public, meaning there should be opportunities around some value starters or some lesser-known pitchers in good spots. Mixing those options in with a fair share of the chalky pitchers is our favored approach to lineup building for this type of slate.
Don’t miss our new Stack Suggestions feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
We are off from shows through the weekend, returning Monday.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 6/17/23
Toronto Blue Jays (-100/4.75) @ Texas Rangers (-120/4.99)
The first game on deck looks to have the makings of a shootout between the Blue Jays and Rangers on a Texas afternoon. Toronto will be facing limited right-hander Dane Dunning, who has made a clear case that he is better in a long relief role in the bullpen. Dunning has made seven starts and thrown 58.2 innings this year, pitching to a 2.76 ERA but a 4.83 xFIP with just a 14.8% strikeout rate. The righty has a 7.8% swinging-strike rate and 26% CSW%, he pitched to a 20.4% strikeout rate with a 10% swinging-strike rate and 27.8% CSW% in a much better season over 29 starts and 153.1 innings last year. The soft-tossing righty looks like a meaty target for Blue Jays bats in this contest, Vegas is seeing things the same way with an overnight implied team total of 4.75. For just $6,800/$7,700 there is very little appeal to Dunning for MLB DFS purposes on this slate. The Blue Jays have a DFS-friendly lineup that is loaded with premium talent at the top and maintains mostly steady production from one to nine, which helps to keep the bats from the top of the lineup returning to the plate for additional opportunities. For Toronto, the top of the lineup typically opens with George Springer, who checks in at .252/.320/.404 after an 0-4 night in the Blue Jays 2-1 victory on Friday. Springer has 10 steals and 10 home runs and his run creation mark is still on the positive side even with his underperformance. For $5,100/$3,100 he is very much in play in this matchup from the leadoff spot. Bo Bichette is affordable for his talent, the shortstop costs just $5,400/$3,400 despite hitting 14 home runs and posting a .317/.347/.508 triple-slash. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had another down night at the plate on Friday and now sits at .279/.349/.434 but still has a fantastic contact profile as has been featured here regularly. Buckle up, if Guerrero does not turn things around in the statistical output we will definitely be harping on that point all season. Daulton Varsho may slide up to the top of the batting order with Guerrero hitting cleanup on Saturday, the lefty has 11 home runs on the season and costs just $3,600/$2,900, which is a bargain value for a hitter with his ceiling if he is in that position in this lineup and matchup. Whit Merrifield climbed to the second spot in the lineup on Friday night and finished 1-4 which left him at .307/.365/.398 for the season. The second base and outfield eligible player is a strong option as a regular pivot or bolt-on piece in Blue Jays stacks, he has a productive hit tool and speed and can provide correlated scoring with teammates. Matt Chapman is a masher at third base, he has maintained a premium contact profile throughout the highs and lows of his 2023 season and has nine home runs in the books while filling third base for just $4,500/$3,100. Kevin Kiermaier, Danny Jansen, and Cavan Biggio round ou the projected version of the lineup. Kiermaier is a defense-first outfielder who has excelled in that area of the game for years but has never been a primary bat in his team’s lineup. In 2023, Kiermaier has come to life somewhat at the plate, but he does not go beyond a sturdy mix-in option. Jansen homered on Friday night and now has nine on the season which is good for a catcher who costs just $3,500/$2,900 and who has made only 142 plate appearances. Biggio is a low-end Major League hitter with moderate upside for counting stats on most slates.
Toronto has veteran righty Trevor Richards slated to make Saturday’s start. Richards has thrown 30 innings in 2023, primarily out of the bullpen. The righty has thrown 30 innings and he did make a brief start of three innings in his most recent outing, striking out seven of the 11 hitters he faced while walking one and allowing one hit. Richards has a 25.5% strikeout rate for his career with a 4.43 xFIP and 4.34 ERA over 452 innings. The 30-year-old has not thrown more than 65 innings since 2019, he has not been a regular starter since 2020, but he is expected to work between three and five innings on Saturday, which gives him some potential for strikeout upside, but the opposition is brutal. The Rangers’ lineup is high-scoring and loaded with power from top to bottom. At $5,000/$5,500, Richards is in play unless further restrictions are put on his pitch count prior to the game, but it is not a spot with which one should get carried away, given the inherent risk in messing with Texas. The Rangers come in with a 4.99-run implied total. Leadoff man Marcus Semien costs $5,600/$4,000 and is slashing .283/.349/.472 after a 1-4 performance on Friday. Semien’s double-play partner slots in behind him in the form of superstar shortstop Corey Seager who is slashing .344/.407/.623 over 172 plate appearances. Nathaniel Lowe has eight home runs on the season, his power is somewhat down from the 27 he hit last season with his barrel rate and hard-hit rate both taking a bit of a year-over-year dip. The first baseman is cheap on every slate and is slotted between two dynamite duos in the Semien-Seager pairing and the Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung tandem that follows. Garcia has 15 home runs and a .224 ISO on the season and Jung has 13 long balls with a .213 ISO. The star outfielder is a fair investment at $5,400/$3,800 while Jung is cheap for his production at $4,400/$3,200 at third base. Jonah Heim follows along with Robbie Grossman in the seventh spot. Heim is an affordable catcher with a productive bat for power, Grossman is a cheap outfielder who has seven home runs but a low-end triple slash for the season. Ezequiel Duran is a growing player late in the lineup, he has been off to a good start in 2023 and sits at .293/.341/.497 with a .204 ISO and eight home runs. Outfielder Leody Taveras homered again on Friday night and now has seven for the season with a .186 ISO and sits one home run away from tying his total output from the past two seasons combined.
Play: Blue Jays bats/stacks, Rangers bats/stacks, Trevor Richards value
Update Notes:
Miami Marlins (-162/5.10) @ Washington Nationals (+132/4.16)
An interesting matchup between the Marlins and Nationals on Saturday afternoon sees a low-end starter taking the mound for the home team and the visitors pushed all the way to a 5.10 implied total. Righty Jake Irvin costs just $5,600/$6,300 and has a 15.9% strikeout rate with a 6.16 xFIP and 5.81 ERA over seven starts and 31 innings. Irvin has also walked a massive and unsustainable 13.8% of opposing hitters with only a 5.2% swinging-strike rate and 24.2% CSW%, he is not a good option for MLB DFS even with the matchup against Miami. Don’t look now, but we’re back to .390, Luis Arraez watchers. The infielder had an outstanding Friday, going 5-5 with a home run that left him at .390/.441/.484, he is outrageously talented with a bat in his hands for just $4,600/$2,900. Jorge Soler has 20 home runs while slashing .258/.357/.558 in a strong season. The outfielder was born to hit home runs and he is in prime position to pick up Arraez whenever he gets on base. Soler is a strong buy at $4,800/$3,500, he has a 15.34 in out home run model, putting him among the overall slate leaders. Bryan De La Cruz has eight home runs while slashing .275/.328/.430 this season and he costs just $3,900/$2,900 in the outfield where he is joined by Jesus Sanchez, who hits from the left side of the plate. Sanchez has six home runs and he finished Friday at .271/.353/.500. It is after Sanchez that the cracks in the Miami foundation begin to show. Garrett Cooper qualifies as one of the better options in the second half of the lineup at .233/.272/.411 with eight home runs. Joey Wendle has a pair of stolen bases and two home runs this year, the infielder is a low-end option but costs just $2,800/$2,400. Jean Segura is still priced at $2,700/$2,200, he has been unwatchable this season. Nick Fortes and Jonathan Davis close out the projected Marlins lineup, Fortes is a semi-viable catcher who hit nine home runs in 240 plate appearances last year and has four in 147 tries this season.
A very compelling part of this game comes in the matchup between southpaw Braxton Garrett and a Nationals’ lineup that has been much better against left-handed pitching than what they are on the whole. Garrett has been very good this year and has been on the ascent for the most part, his biggest obstacle right now is his typical depth of start. In 12 outings, Garrett has thrown 63.2 innings with a 4.10 ERA and 3.06 xFIP, which is notably better. The lefty has allowed some premium contact this season, but he has limited launch angle to just 7.3 degrees and kept home runs to a non-tragic 3.36%. Garrett has pushed his strikeout rate to 25.7% so far this season and he is walking a mere 4.9% while inducing a terrific 13.6% swinging-strike rate and compiling a 32.1% CSW%. For $8,400/$8,900, Garrett is a strong buy on the mound, the Nationals are better against lefties than righties, not good. The team has a productive 109 WRC+ in the split against lefties so far this season, ranking them 12th in baseball, but their collective ISO sits at just .140. Garrett will be challenged to find strikeouts in the matchup, but he has the talent and premium stuff necessary to overcome the current-year 17.8% strikeout rate in the split that Washington is carrying. Garrett will be a big piece of our MLB DFS puzzle in this matchup, but a few hedge stacks of Nationals are not entirely off-the-wall. The Washington lineup opens with Lane Thomas, who has a .288/.339/.477 triple-slash with six stolen bases on the year. Thomas has been the team’s most productive hitter, he has 10 home runs and a .189 ISO overall and has raked against lefties to the tune of a 190 WRC+ over 89 plate appearances. Infielder Luis Garcia has a 7.08 in our home run model, he has five this year and hit just seven last year, so the read is a bit of an outlier, but it is not so far out of line with Garcia’s typical projection that it would warrant inspection. Joey Meneses slots in next for just $3,400/$2,900 at first base. The righty has dropped to just a 97 WRC+ in his 89 plate appearances against southpaws this season, he has a productive triple-slash overall but his .096 ISO in the split is not encouraging. Jeimer Candelario is slashing .219/.313/.288 with a 67 WRC+ against lefties this season and all eight of his home runs came against righties. Stone Garrett ranks third by WRC+ in the split at 132 over 60 plate appearances. Garrett has power from the right side, he has a .208 ISO but strikes out at a 30% clip against left-handed pitching this year. Keibert Ruiz is cheap at $3,200/$2,900 and he is a player we have an eye on in the longer term, but his WRC+ has dipped to 96 against lefties and he has a .153 ISO in the split with just one of his eight home runs coming against a lefty. Dominic Smith and Ildemaro Vargas are low-end options late in the lineup, but Victor Robles is interesting if he is in the lineup. The toolsy post-post hype outfielder came back to the lineup last night, he had a productive start to the season at .292/.388/.360 over his first 107 plate appearances and sits at .290/.383/.355 after an uneventful 1-4 in his return to action.
Play: Marlins bats/stacks as an upper mid-range option, Braxton Garrett, some Nationals bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Philadelphia Phillies (-175/5.19) @ Oakland Athletics (+145/4.04)
The Phillies and Athletics square off on Saturday with limited righty James Kaprielian making the start for Oakland. The righty had a decent outing in his last turn on the hill, posting a quality start while striking out four Rays hitters and walking three while yielding three earned runs. He also put up a quality start in the game before that, though his stuff was not nearly as effective with just one strikeout and five walks. Kaprielian does not look like a strong option against Philadelphia, his $6,000/$7,400 price tag is about right for an ineffectual pitcher with a 6.89 ERA and 6.06 xFIP with an 18.3% strikeout rate over 49.2 innings this year. Kaprilelian is a below-average Major League starter so far in his career, he can be targeted enthusiastically with Phillies bats. Kyle Schwarber blasted his 19th home run of the season on Friday night and now sits at .177/.327/.444 with a .266 ISO. The slugger is not going to hit for batting average, but we simply do not care given his titanic power upside and fantastic contact profile for just $5,500/$3,500. Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos must have passed one another in the clubhouse prior to Opening Day with whatever baseball demon was infecting Castellanos last season leaving his body and jumping into Turner’s like the killer in the Denzel Washington/John Goodman non-classic Fallen. Turner has been in a season-long slump but still has seven home runs and 12 stolen bases. Meanwhile, Castellanos has racked up a .315/.358/.493 triple slash with eight home runs and a .178 ISO. Naturally, Turner is by far the more expensive hitter on DraftKings. The shortstop slots in at $6,000/$3,300 with Castellanos at $4,900/$3,500. Bryce Harper is another player at different relative price points on each site. He has eligibility at first base and in the outfield on FanDuel but costs a mere $3,700, while he is a full-priced item for $6,300 on DraftKings. JT Realmuto is one of baseball’s top catchers and he comes cheap at $5,200/$3,300. Realmuto is slashing .260/.309/.493 with a .233 ISO and is well above average for run creation this season. Bryson Stott jumps back into the lineup with a righty on the mound. The infielder is slashing .301/.341/.435 with a 110 WRC+ after heating back up recently. Brandon Marsh is another lefty who got Friday night off with same-handed pitching on the mound. The slugger is sitting at .261/.351/.427 with five home runs and four stolen bases and could hit anywhere from sixth through ninth. Alec Bohm hit his seventh home run of the season last night, he checks in at just $4,200/$3,200 as an interesting option at either first or third base. Kody Clemens has four home runs and a .158 ISO in 123 plate appearances from the left side, he is interesting late in the lineup for just $2,600/$2,400, but there are also far better first basemen in DFS.
The Athletics will be facing 26-year-old lefty Cristopher Sanchez, who has made just one start in which he struck out five and walked two while allowing three runs in 4.1 innings. Sanchez threw 40 innings and made three starts last season, he had a 19.8% strikeout rate with a 9.6% walk rate for the season. In 49.2 innings in AAA this season, the lefty has a 4.35 ERA and 5.40 xFIP with a 19.8% strikeout rate. If the Phillies had better organizational depth in their pitching staff this would probably not be their selected starter, Sanchez is not a prospect and he does not look like a good option for DFS even at $5,700/$7,100, the primary upside is extracted from his matchup not his talent. Oakland’s lineup has not been good this season despite going 7-3 in their last 10 games. The team is showing a bit of life in our home run model, but it does not translate well to fantasy projections or value for Oakland’s lousy lineup. Leadoff man Esteury Ruiz swiped another two bags last night and now sits at 35 for the season in our other ongoing stat watch. Ruiz is cheap for a player who posts counting stats with regularity but his value is spotty if he is not getting on base and running. Brent Rooker checks in with an upside number in our home run model, for all his obvious faults that we have harped on since day one, Rooker still can connect for power from time to time, in this matchup he is pulling a significant 15.53 in our home run model. After an 0-4 with three strikeouts last night, Rooker now sits at .256/.356/.498 and has as many home runs from May 1st through Friday as he did from April 12th-April 14th, with four. Ryan Noda has a .405 on-base percentage and provides upside for moderate power as well as correlated scoring from the left side of the plate on a nightly basis. Seth Brown is slashing .206/.280/.364 in limited chances after his long injury absence. Brown is a capable MLB hitter with good power and a bit of speed. Ramon Laureano also has lower-end double-digit home run and stolen base years in his past. Both players are affordable, Brown costs $2,800/$2,700 and Laureano is just $2,600/$2,800. Jonah Bride costs $2,000/$2,300 and has not done much to earn even that salary in his 47 plate appearances this year or 187 from last year. Aledmys Diaz is a veteran utility man who has a 53 WRC+ for the season, Kevin Smith is a low-end option for MLB DFS who is hitting ninth, Shea Langeliers is projected to hit in the eighth spot in between them and is a somewhat viable catcher for MLB DFS purposes given his home run stroke. Langeliers has a 9.04 in the home run model today.
Play: Phillies bats/stacks enthusiastically, some Athletics bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Chicago White Sox (+125/3.52) @ Seattle Mariners (-155/4.20)
Mariners pitching struck out 16 White Sox hitters in last night’s contest, with rookie Bryan Woo grabbing nine of them in his 5.2 excellent innings of work. Chicago lost a 3-2 ball game but did manage to hit two home runs among all the strikeouts. Against a more proven starter in Logan Gilbert, one wonders how much worse things could look after tonight’s game. Gilbert has a terrific 27.1% strikeout rate with just a 4.3% walk rate over 74 innings and 13 starts. The righty has been sharp overall, he has a 4.38 ERA but a 3.44 xFIP and he has induced an 11.1% swinging-strike rate. Gilbert costs just $10,300/$9,500, his FanDuel price is a bargain despite a clunky outing his last time on the mound. Against the Angels, Gilber lasted just three innings, facing 19 hitters and striking out two while allowing six earned runs on eight hits. He was good the start before that, with six strikeouts and just one run allowed on three hits in seven innings, but the five runs he allowed in another clunker of a four-inning start against the Yankees has people in “over his last three games” mode when pulling at narrative threads. Gilbert is an outstanding right-handed starter who deserves attention against the White Sox. It can be treated as a both-sided situation, Chicago has enough in their lineup to find upside but Vegas has them at just a 3.52-run implied total and sees things the way our model does. Gilbert is one of our most highly projected starters for this slate, he is too cheap. The White Sox got life from Andrew Benintendi with an unexpected home run, he was joined on the power board by Gavin Sheets who also hit one out after the White Sox led the home run column for the second day in our Power Index. Benintendi needs to give leadoff man Tim Anderson some of whatever he had for breakfast so the shortstop can get his season rolling as well. Anderson and Benintendi have offered very little from the top of the lineup to support the quality that follows. Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez have major power potential on any slate, the duo have combined for 24 home runs, with Robert carrying 17 of them and Jimenez missing a fair amount of time with new and various injuries. Jake Burger has a 9.37 in our home run model to sit second on the team behind Robert in this matchup. Burger’s third base eligibility is valuable for $3,700/$3,200 given how he has been hitting. While we do not expect things to continue in the long term, it makes sense to book a few shares at the price. Andrew Vaughn has been a productive player this season, he has created runs well above average and has hit for a moderate amount of power. Sheets has eight home runs after last night’s long ball, but Romy Gonzalez rounds things out in a low-end form.
The White Sox will answer with righty Lucas Giolito on the mound. The pitcher has a 24.9% strikeout rate and 4.35 xFIP with a 3.54 ERA over 14 starts and 81.1 innings. Giolito was roughly the same pitcher last year, his strikeout rate was 25.4% and he had a 3.66 xFIP with a 3.44% home run rate that has gone up a tick to 3.55% this season. Giolito costs $9,600/$10,500, he is a different play across sites but should be owned on both. On DraftKings, Giolito is a good premium value buy, meaning he does carry a price tag but has a good shot at posting a score that would make his price irrelevant. The Mariners lineup opens with shortstop JP Crawford, who is slashing .245/.350/.345 with three home runs on the season. Crawford is not a high-end option for Seattle, but he gets on base at a good enough clip to keep him involved enough to be in some of our Seattle stacks. Julio Rodriguez has a dozen home runs and stolen bases this year while slashing .240/.299/.425. Ty France lands at .282/.351/.431 and costs just $3,500/$2,900, which helps pay for Rodriguez’s $5,000/$3,700. The outfielder and first baseman make a good pairing in MLB DFS lineups. Teoscar Hernandez hit a late home run last night, he has 12 on the season but costs just $3,000/$2,900, making him a good value play for power. Jarred Kelenic has a .263/.333/.483 triple-slash but has been stuck at the same power marks for some time now, he has three home runs since May 22nd. Eugenio Suarez has struck out at nearly a 30% clip while not hitting for much power or doing much else at the plate this year. The righty thumper has been a major power hitter in seasons past, he has seven on the season after a slow start. Cal Raleigh is a power-hitting catcher ahead of Mike Ford and Jose Caballero at the bottom of the lineup.
Play: Logan Gilbert, Lucas Giolito, minor shares of bats on either side
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Angels (-112/4.38) @ Kansas City Royals (+124/4.00)
The Angels are pulling in a 4.38-run implied total in Vegas but land as our highest average projection on the backs of a pair of superstars and a few very good power hitters up and down the lineup, as well as an outstanding matchup against a limited bulk reliever in Mike Mayers, whose name sounds like the creator of a popular Friday Night Live sketch called Dwayne’s World in a near-replica universe. Mayers has made several bulk relief appearances and one traditional start this season, the righty has a 16.5% strikeout rate and 5.06 ERA with a 4.90 xFIP that says what we see is what we get. Mayers is not a good option even at $5,500, his $8,100 price on FanDuel is aggressively high. Taylor Ward costs just $3,900/$2,900 at the top of the Angels lineup, he has a 9.03 in our home run model and he hit 23 last season in a roller coaster year. Ward has been scuffling this season but there is time for hit cart to climb the next production hill before his 2023 ride is over. Shohei Ohtani has a league-leading 22 home runs with a .301/.385/.621 triple-slash, he is a superstar who is worth the salary on any slate. Mike Trout is somewhat cheap on FanDuel at just $3,700, he costs the full $6,200 on DraftKings. Trout has hit 14 home runs this season, but he has dipped in his triple-slash at just .248/.355/.457. Anthony Rendon is a capable option at third base for his on-base acumen and correlation ability for just $3,400/$2,800. Matt Thaiss has three home runs but just a .119 ISO at catcher for a cheap price, while Brandon Drury and Hunter Renfroe are both highly capable home run hitters from a few tiers below the superstars up top. Drury costs $4,300/$2,900 at first or second base on both sites while Renfroe is a $4,000/$2,800 option. Jared Walsh is a lefty power hitter who has not shown much at the plate in his small sample of plate appearances. Andrew Velazquez is a low-end infield option at the bottom of the batting order.
The Kansas City lineup appears to be in play as well. Righty Griffin Canning is more of a target on the mound than an option for DFS shares at $8,200/$9,300. The righty has a 22.1% strikeout rate over 53.1 innings in his 10 starts this year. He has a 4.56 ERA and 4.17 xFIP with a 6.6% walk rate and an 11.2% swinging-strike rate. The unfortunate issue that crops up is the premium contact that Canning has allowed this season. His 8.2% barrel rate and 44.9% hard-hit rate on 90.9 mph exit velocity have amounted to a 4.42% home run rate, teams can simply find power against Canning this year. There are plenty of strikeouts available in the Royals’ lineup in addition to their potential for power and Vegas seems to be favoring Canning somewhat, with Kansas City at just a 4.0-run implied team total. The Royals lineup opens with Nick Pratto, who has been striking out too much but has been otherwise very good over 174 plate appearances. Sal Perez has blasted 14 home runs this season while slashing .274/.310/.506. MJ Melendez makes outstanding contact for someone who has only managed five home runs on the season, something will normalize and we are still leaning toward more power coming through over time. The lefty slugger hit 18 home runs in 534 plate appearances last year and has the potential for more. Melendez is cheap at $3,100/$2,700. Bobby Witt Jr. is slashing .245/.285/.424 but has 11 home runs and 21 stolen bases. If Witt were actually getting on base at a reasonable clip he would be chasing Esteury Ruiz for the stolen base lead. Michael Massey is slashing .217/.279/.315 with four home runs, the lefty second baseman is cheap at $2,600/$2,500, which is also true of Edward Olivares in the outfield. Olivares has five home runs and six stolen bases this year while slashing .261/.321/.444. Drew Waters, Maikel Garcia, and Nicky Lopez are a low-end way to close out a batting order.
Play: Angels bats/stacks, Royals bats/stacks in smaller shares as a good value stack
Update Notes:
Pittsburgh Pirates (-105/4.31) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-115/4.41)
With a 14% strikeout rate and a 5.36 xFIP over 41.2 innings in eight starts there seems to be little reason to consider Wade Miley for DFS shares, particularly at his $7,200/$8,200 pricing. Miley will be returning from the injured list and he is a low-end option with an unclear ceiling for pitches tonight. The opposing Pirates look like the far better play tonight. Pittsburgh’s lineup runs from Andrew McCutchen to Bryan Reynolds to Connor Joe up top, the three can be rostered as a unit or in rotation with other pieces of the batting order. McCutchen is carrying nine home rnus and seven stolen bases into action on Saturday. The veteran had a lot more left in the tank than anyone suspected, he has bene very good in his return to Pittsburgh with a .262/.381/.427 triple-slash. Reynolds has seven home runs and eight steals as well as a solid .278/.348/.464 triple-slash but has been on the decline for several weeks. Joe started out hot but has also slid down the quality rails somewhat, he sits at .253/.343/.463 but still has a .211 ISO and six home runs. Switch-hitting veteran Carlos Santana got on the board again last night with his sixth home run of the season, Ke’Bryan Hayes has four, and slugger Jack Suwinski does all the heavy lifting with 15. Rodolfo Castro slots in with a lefty on the mound, he is not to be missed in Pirates stacks on this side of the platoon situation, Castro rakes lefties for his career with a .300/.365/.617 triple-slash and a .317 ISO with a 164 WRC+ in 200 plate appearances against lefties with 14 of his 22 career home runs in the split. That is significant output, throughout the course of reading this article, most of the primary hitters mentioned have well over 200 plate appearances this year, three that were mentioned had exactly 14 home runs, they were Bo Bichette, Mike Trout, and Sal Perez. Adolis Garcia has 15 and Ohtani has 22, everyone else mentioned has fewer. The point is, Castro’s platoon numbers in the sample of 200 plate appearances are elite. Mark Mathais and Austin Hedges are not great options outside of mix-in shares.
Right-handed starter Mitch Keller has been mostly dazzling throughout the first part of the season, outside of a couple of recent clunkers. Keller struck out seven Mets in seven innings while allowing just a solo home run and one other hit and walking two. Overall, the righty has struck out 28.2% in 87 innings and 14 starts while pitching to a 3.41 ERA and 3.27 xFIP this year. Keller’s swinging-strike rate sits at just 9.7% but his 28.9% CSW% is effective and he has been pitching well overall. Keller draws a Brewers team that has a collective 97 WRC+ against righties this season while striking out at a 23.9% clip with a .165 ISO. Leadoff man Christian Yelich has nine home runs and 16 stolen bases in a productive season. While he has not produced at MVP levels, he is still a good player and he comes at a fair price on both sites. Yelich is slashing .265/.359/.424 this season with a .159 ISO. Willy Adames has monster power he has 10 home runs this year, all of which were hit prior to his injury-related absence. The shortstop has major upside on most slates, he is slashing just .201/.282/.370 but when he connects he can drive the ball over the wall regularly and he costs just $4,600/$2,900 tonight. Rowdy Tellez has light tower power, he has a dozen home runs while slashing .231/.305/.433 this year. Tellez is another cheap option in the heart of the Brewers lineup at $4,400/$2,700. Owen Miller and William Contreras are productive options in the fourth and fifth spots in the lineup if they land in those positions. Miller is slashing .296/.336/.425 with four home runs, Contreras is a productive catcher who has eight home runs and a .240/.333/.417 triple-slash. Lefty Jon Singleton has a number of seasons of 20 or more home runs in the minor leagues, he has been around long enough to hit them. The slugger has never fully landed at the MLB level, he has zero home runs so far this season but he retains any-given-slate upside at $2,100?$2,200. Brian Anderson, Luis Urias, and Joey Wiemer are a good trio to round out the lineup, they all have reasonable upside for counting stats, with Wiemer as possibly the most interesting of the bunch on DraftKings for only $2,900. On FanDuel, Urias is more interesting for $2,400 with three-position eligibility that plays very well in creating flexible combinations with Brewers value stacks.
Play: Mitch Keller, Pirates bats/stacks, Brewers bats/stacks for value
Update Notes:
Colorado Rockies (+240/3.62) @ Atlanta Braves (-300/6.15)
The Rockies are in Atlanta as major underdogs on Saturday, with Vegas having little faith in a repeat quality performance from their lousy starting pitcher after he was effective at limiting the Red Sox in his last outing. First, the Rockies will have to figure out how to score some runs against Atlanta starter Bryce Elder, who has been very good over 13 starts and 77 innings this season. Elder has a 20.8% strikeout rate, he is not a dominant force on the mound, but he is good at keeping the ball in the yard and runs in check with a 2.69 ERA and 3.76 xFIP and a 2.24% home run rate on 6.8% barrels and a seven-degree average launch angle. The righty does not walk many or get himself into trouble, and the matchup is an outstanding one, Elder is a good buy at $10,000/$10,600, he has a chance to rack up clean innings against one of baseball’s worst lineups. The Rockies projected batting order includes Jurickson Profar in a leadoff role as usual, he is slashing .243/.318/.389 and creating runs 22% worse than average, why not give him 600 plate appearances at the top of the lineup years after we know for certain that he’s not very good? Ezequiel Tovar has six home runs and three stolen bases with a 75 WRC+, but we do not have a long track record for the developing player of whom a lot more production was expected in 2023. Tovar costs just $3,300/$2,800 at shortstop which is at least a useful price at which to find a shortstop who hits second in a lineup. Ryan McMahon has 10 home runs with a .223 ISO while creating runs 14% better than average for the season, he is one of the few truly productive hitters for Colorado. Catcher Elias Diaz can be rostered as a good positional option for $4,500/$2,800, he has created runs 10% better than average and hit seven home runs in his 239 chances this year. Nolan Jones would have an even better line if he’d been with the team all season. Jones is raking at .338/.408/.588 with four home runs and a .250 ISO in his 76 plate appearances. Randal Grichuk and Mike Moustakas are a pair of veteran bats having very different seasons. Both players missed time, but Grichuk has returned as a different hitter who is slashing .298/.363/.426 and contributing at league average over 157 plate appearances but has only hit one home run. Moustakas has three home runs but is slashing just .248/.336/.396 and has created runs 16% below average. Harold Castro and Brenton Doyle are two serviceable bats at the bottom of the lineup, Doyle costs just $3,400/$2,700 and has already hit four home runs and stolen 10 bases in his 139 plate appearances. The Rockies are a low-end stacking option against Elder today.
The Braves are an extremely high-end stacking option against Connor Seabold today. The righty has made eight starts and thrown 53.2 innings this year, pitching to a 4.70 ERA and 5.30 xFIP with a 2.93% home run rate and 36.4% hard-hit rate. Seabold was worse for allowing power in five starts and 18.1 innings last season and he was effective in two starts prior to the game against the Red Sox as well, but he simply has not looked much like a pitcher who is going to get through these Braves three times over today and he is certainly not projecting like one. The Braves’ projected lineup has seven hitters who have already hit 10 or more home runs this season in its first seven spots, six of those hitters are above our magic number for home run potential tonight. Ronald Acuna Jr. is baseball’s best overall player with a .327/.401/.569 triple-slash, 15 home runs, and 30 stolen bases. Acuna is a superstar who is worth his $6,600/$4,600 on any slate. Ozzie Albies slots in second in this version of the lineup, the start second baseman has 15 home runs to tie Acuna and he has been 10% better than average for run creation. Albies costs $1,600 less than Acuna on DraftKings and $1,500 less on FanDuel. Austin Riley is a right-handed thumper at third base, he has 11 home runs in a bit of a downswing but has hit more than 30 each of the last two seasons and is still above average for run creation. Riley’s scuffling has lowered his price somewhat, he is a bargain at $5,500/$3,000 in a lineup where salary is precious. Sean Murphy is slashing .285/.384/.535 with 12 home runs, he is a top catcher play whenever he is in the lineup. If we see Travis d’Arnaud instead he is easily playable and has good power, he is just not quite Murphy at the plate, although he certainly was in a monster performance just last night. Matt Olson has 19 home runs and a massive .258 ISO while creating runs 22% better than average as a top first baseman. Marcell Ozuna is inexpensive in the outfield for someone with 13 home runs this season. Ozuna’s triple-slash is looking better as well, he is sitting at .243/.321/.487 with a .243 ISO and has created runs 14% better than average. For $3,800/$3,000, Ozuna helps offset some of the expense of an Acuna, which is also true of outfielder Eddie Rosario who has 10 home runs and a .212 ISO but has been four percent below average for run creation. Orlando Arcia is one of our favored value plays from late in the lineup, the infielder has a strong hit tool with a bit of power and he is rarely expensive or popular. Arcia’s three position eligibility on FanDuel is a major asset when building stacks of Braves hitters, he should be included. Michael Harris II has five home runs and seven stolen bases and has been showing signs of life at the plate after a long start to his season.
Play: Braves bats/stacks with enthusiasm but an eye on ownership, Bryce Elder
Update Notes:
St. Louis Cardinals (+125/4.22) @ New York Mets (-154/5.03)
First-year MLB starter Kodai Senga steps to the mound in Queens tonight to face the Cardinals. The righty will be making his 13th start, he has a 3.34 ERA and 3.99 xFIP so far this season to go with a strong 28.3% strikeout rate, but his 14.3% walk rate remains a major concern when rostering the starter. Senga can roll through a start or he can get himself into trouble time and again, he has a good 12.3% swinging-strike rate and can punch his way out of a jam, but he needs to cut those walks before he can be thought of as truly good or reliable. Senga has several DFS gems and several DFS disasters in his brief career game log, he costs $10,600/$9,800 in a tough spot against the Cardinals tonight. The starter is in play on a short slate and he projects in the upper mid-range of the board, but he is not our favorite play amongst the pitchers. The Cardinals lineup has been up and down through the season but the team has talent from 1-9 in their lineup most days. Brendan Donovan is four percent better than average for run creation over 243 plate appearances, he has six home runs and four steals on the year so far and is good for correlated scoring in this spot in the lineup. Paul Goldschmidt has 11 home runs and a 138 WRC+ with a .197 ISO over 305 plate appearances in a strong season to follow up his MVP year in 2022. The first base star has a spot waiting in Cooperstown when he is through, but there is plenty left in the tank at $5,800/$3,700. Nolan Gorman has 15 homers to lead the team this season, the second baseman has created runs 26% better than average in a big breakout season overall. Nolan Arenado costs $5,300/$3,200 at third base, the star has come back to life quickly this Summer after a slot start, he has a 119 WRC+ after 285 plate appearances and looks like his typically stellar self at the plate. Willson Contreras has not been himself this season. The catcher is slashing just .204/.296/.363 with an 85 WRC+. Jordan Walker has been good in limited opportunities, he has made 129 plate appearances and has four home runs and a pair of steals with a 122 WRC+. Dylan Carlson, Paul DeJong, and Tommy Edman round out the lineup with professional quality, the group of hitters can, and should, be included with the first six hitters in a variety of combinations when stacking Cardinals bats. Edman, in particular, is interesting as a wraparound player who can correlate with the top of the batting order.
The Cardinals will have Adam Wainwright on the mound, but this is decidedly not the Wainwright who once froze Carlos Beltran with an elite curveball to win game 7 of the NLCS in 2006, which one might recognize as a long time ago. The former ace has come a long way in his storied career but probably wishes he had hung up his spikes after last season. Wainwright has a rough pitching line with a 5.79 ERA and 5.50 xFIP to go with a 12% strikeout rate over 37.1 innings and seven starts in 2023. Unfortunately, Wainwright is looking very much like a target on the mound rather than someone we want in MLB DFS lineups for $6,300/$6,800. The Mets lineup is in play as a good stack with a 5.03-run implied team total despite the ongoing lack of star Pete Alonso in the lineup. Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte are projected to open the batting order for New York. Nimmos has created runs 30% better than average while Marte has been 14% worse than the average. Nimmo gets on at a .380 clip and Marte is at .316 but has managed 19 stolen bases this season. Jeff McNeil is a slap-hitting correlated scorer who does not fit well with Nimmo and Marte ahead of him, but he is very playable for our purposes in this position in the lineup. McNeil costs $3,600/$2,600 with second base and outfield eligibility tonight and has been four percent better than average for run creation this season. Francisco Lindor costs just $4,700/$3,100, the former star has 12 home runs and a .200 ISO but has been five percent below average creating runs for the season in a big downswing. The shortstop is slashing .211/.289/.411 but has not struggled for contact at 11% barrels and a 43.5% hard-hit rate. Francisco Alvarez has equaled Lindor’s output for home runs in roughly half the plate appearances, the rookie backstop has been truly outstanding this season. Brett Baty has a 6.9% barrel rate but a high-end 48.3% hard-hit rate over his 177 plate appearances as a high-end prospect. Veterans Tommy Pham and Mark Canha are playable parts late in the lineup, the veterans have WRC+ marks of 119 and 107 so far this season. Luis Guillorme is projected to hit eighth between the duo, he is a defense-first infielder who is not worth much for DFS purposes.
Play: Mets bats/stacks as a mid-range option, Cardinals bats/stacks, Kodai Senga
Update Notes:
Cincinnati Reds (+110/4.14) @ Houston Astros (-135/4.60)
The fun but not yet good Reds are in Houston to battle Brandon Bielak who has a 4.01 ERA and 4.59 xFIP in 42.2 innings over seven starts. Bielak has posted a few useful outings this season and he costs just $7,700/$8,400 in a matchup in which his opponent is at just a 4.14-run implied total in Vegas. The righty has a bit of upside but he projects at what could generously be called the top of the bottom part of our pitching board for the price. Bielak has an 18.3% strikeout rate and a 9.4% swinging-strike rate with a 24.3% CSW% and has allowed too much power with a 4.84% home run rate on 14.7% barrels and 51.5% hard hits and 90.5 mph of exit velocity. The Reds have a bit of power showing in our model, but no one cracks the magic number for home run upside. The closest marks to 10.0 in the home run model are rookies Matt McLain at 9.84 and Elly De La Cruz at 9.20, which is why this team is fun but not good. McLain hit second, he has a 133 WRC+ with three home runs in his 136 plate appearances since his promotion and is a good fit behind leadoff man TJ Friedl, who has three homers and seven stolen bases in 181 opportunities. Friedl has created runs 21% better than average while slashing .313/.362/.479 in the small sample. Jonathan India hits between McLain and De La Cruz most days. The infielder is slashing .273/.356/.427 with a 108 WRC+ in 309 plate appearances. India is capable of posting big games with counting stats and his sturdy hit tool keeps him involved for correlated scoring., he is a good option in Reds stacks for $4,800/$3,600. De La Cruz has a home run and five stolen bases in his 40 plate appearances so far. Spencer Steer costs $4,400/$3,400 compared to the $5,100/$4,000 asking price for the flashy rookie. Steer has been having a good season, slashing .274/.356/.468 with a 117 WRC+ over 284 plate appearances in 2023. Tyler Stephenson, Nick Senzel, Will Benson, and Stuart Fairchild round out the projected lineup, Senzel and Fairchild are the two more interesting options while Stephenson is a playable catcher option for $3,800/$2,800, he has five home runs but just an 84 WRC+ this season.
The Houston lineup is a tough one but rookie Andrew Abbott was quite good against them on Friday night and they have scuffled against expectations so far in 2023 while also lacking their superstar. With righty Hunter Greene on the mound, this creates an interesting situation for DFS purposes, Greene is very good and costs $9,000/$10,200 in the matchup. The righty has a dominant 33.2% strikeout rate with a 9.2% walk rate that could get him in trouble against the stingy Astros lineup. The righty has pitched to a 4.01 ERA and 3.57 xFIP with a 14.6% swinging-strike rate that is among the league leaders this season in his 67.1 innings and 13 starts. Greene has been very good this season, he pitched to a 30.9% strikeout rate with a 4.44 ERA and 3.64 xFIP as a rookie in 2022. This is a very good pitcher who is probably a bit cheap on this slate, particularly on DraftKings where he should be very popular. The projected Astros lineup is carrying a 4.60-run implied total with Mauricio Dubon in the leadoff role once again. Dubon has been capable but not ideal in this role, he has a 98 WRC+ with three homers and five stolen bases and has gotten on at a .315 clip overall this year. The leadoff spot is probably not the best place for his on-base skills, but Dubon has delivered enough for the Astros as a fill-in this year. Jose Altuve is a star, he has an 11.29 in our home run model against Greene and has two in his ledger with three stolen bases over his 87 plate appearances. Alex Bregman has been treading water with only his face cracking the surface at a 101 WRC+ this season. The veteran has not been his formerly amazing self at the plate, but he has managed nine home runs to this point and lands fairly cheap. Kyle Tucker leads the lineup with an 11.90 in our home run model. The outfielder has nine homers and 12 stolen bases on the season with a .167 ISO in a bit of a downswing that has lasted a while. Tucker is a star and he has still created runs 24% better than average for the year. The outfielder is affordable at $5,200/$3,400 and would be a big part of plans in this lineup if one chooses to target what should be heavy ownership on Greene with a capable lineup. Jose Abreu costs $3,200/$2,800 amidst ongoing struggles but he has improved somewhat in recent weeks. Jeremy Pena and Corey Julks are cheap options who have bent slates this season. Pena has eight home runs and six stolen bases with a 100 WRC+ while Julks slots in 20% worse than average for the year for run creation. Jake Meyers is one percent ahead of the curve for runs treading water next to Bregman, if the team could save one of the two players from drowning it would be Bregman twice. Backup Cesar Salazar is slotted in to do the catching today, he is a non-entity for DFS and has been a negative performer at the plate with a -23 WRC+ which means he has been 123% worse than average for run creation, but his sample is thankfully only 18 plate appearances, we just needed something to say.
Play: Hunter Greene enthusiastically, some hedge stacks of premium Astros, a few Bielak darts, a few Reds darts
Update Notes:
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