Welcome to the fantasy baseball coverage apocalypse. Today’s action is radically split between two wildly different slates from site to site, making it difficult to provide one snapshot of one slate, instead we are going for full coverage in top gear mode and foregoing a show this afternoon. DraftKings is opting for a 1:10 start with 11 games that run through the afternoon games that commence at 4:10. FanDuel decided to skip the early games and the three 4:05 games, opting for a seven-game main slate that begins at 4:10 and includes the 10:07 Mariners vs Angels game in a bizarre decision. Only the three games that start at 4:10 are on both slates, they are the Athletics vs Brewers, Rangers vs Rays, and Nationals vs Braves games, three of those teams land at or near the top of power the board on both slates. The slate features a long list of pitchers, but there are a number of easily targeted starters and this is shaping up like a day to win with bats on both sites.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 6/10/23 – DraftKings
Arizona Diamondbacks (-118/4.71) @ Detroit Tigers (+109/4.39)
The Diamondbacks are in Detroit for a matchup with Matthew Boyd, who has moderate upside for strikeouts from game to game but pitches at a somewhat below-league-average level overall. Boyd has a 5.57 ERA and 4.66 xFIP over 53.1 innings and 11 starts this season while striking out 22.9% and walking 9.5%. Boyd is issuing too many free passes but he has not been lousy for power so far this season, limiting barrels to 6.5% and hard hits to 33.8% which amounts to a 3.03% home run rate. The starter costs $6,800, which could put him on some value boards, but the strikeout upside in the matchup is not great and the Diamondbacks are carrying an effective 4.71-run implied total. Arizona’s projected lineup is a playable stack, particularly on the top end. Ketel Marte has a 119 WRC+ over 260 plate appearances and can provide mid-range power and speed for individual scoring, he costs $4,900/$3,500 at second base. Corbin Carroll is a premium rookie who has been delivering all season, he is slashing .307/.391/.575 with 13 home runs and 18 stolen bases. Emmanuel Rivera has been productive over 104 plate appearances, he has a 144 WRC+ and a terrific triple-slash in the small sample. Christian Walker and Evan Longoria are right-handed mashers in the middle of the lineup who could ruin Boyd’s day in a hurry. Walker has 12 home runs in 249 plate appearances, and Longoria has eight in only 109. Pavin Smith, Nick Ahmed, Gabriel Moreno, and Jake McCarthy slot into the bottom half of the lineup, any of the group is playable in mix-and-match doses.
Detroit’s lousy lineup is facing Ryne Nelson, who has made 12 starts and has a limited 13.9% strikeout rate with a 5.10 xFIP under his 5.40 ERA. Nelson has not been very good in his rookie season, he has induced just a 7.6% swinging-strike rate with a 22.5% CSW% and he has allowed 91.5 mph of exit velocity on average with a 9.2% barrel rate and 41.5% hard-hit rate. The Tigers lineup is not a good one and they are not carrying a high implied team total in Vegas, but this is most definitely a gettable pitcher, even for them. Minor shares of Tigers bats are not out of line, even on a large slate. Zach McKinstry has four home runs and 10 stolen bases with a 115 WRC+ to lead the way for the Tigers. Javier Baez and Spencer Torkelson have been bad over the entire season. Baez has four home runs and five stolen bases in 244 plate appearances with a 64 WRC+, Torkleson is at five homers and two steals with an 88 WRC+ in 255. Nick Maton has six home runs and little else from the left side of the plate, Eric Haase hit home runs two years ago but not many since, he has two this year in 170 plate appearances, and Kerry Carpenter may be back in the lineup, which would add a touch of actual talent on the left side. Carpenter has four home runs in 79 plate appearances from earlier in the season. Miguel Cabrera, Andy Ibanez, and Jake Marisnick round out the lineup.
Play: Diamondbacks bats/stacks, minor shares of Tigers
Update Notes: the confirmed Diamondbacks lineup includes Lourdes Gurriel Jr. who had been missing from the projected, adding another excellent slugger to the third spot in the order. Gurriel has nine home runs and a .310/.359/.550 triple-slash. Walker-Rivera-Smith-Ahmed-Moren-McCarthy follows with no Longoria in the lineup. The Tigers will have Carpenter back and hitting third, giving him a tiny bump, McKinstry-Baez-Carpenter-Torkelson-Maton-Zack Short-Cabrera-Jake Rogers-Marisnick.
Miami Marlins (-108/4.08) @ Chicago White Sox (-101/4.01)
Righty Michael Kopech is on the mound for the White Sox, he has a 4.33 ERA and 4.53 xFIP over 12 starts and 68.2 innings but has been lousy for power all season. Kopech has a 27.5% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate, the strikeouts are good but the free passes are far too many for someone who also allows a 5.23% home run rate with a 16.5% barrel rate. Kopech is capable of pitching deep and reaching a lofty strikeout total, in his last four starts he has seen the eighth inning once and seventh twice, but also only lasted 4.1 in another outing. He struck out at least nine hitters in each of the four starts, 10 in the 4.1-inning affair. There is clear upside for a ceiling score with Kopech against the Marlins, but he is in no way a “safe” option. The righty costs $9,100 so there is no discount either, he is a true choice to be made, but the Marlins are fifth from the bottom by WRC+ against right-handed pitching this year, with just an 89, and their team ISO is .128 in the split. Rostering Marlins is typically a low-end proposition, but there are several very good bats in the lineup and at least one major power hitter who could take advantage of all the premium contact Kopech allows. Luis Arraez is hitting exactly .400 coming into the day, he has the best hit tool in baseball and gets on at a .449 clip ahead of Jorge Soler who has monumental power and 17 home runs in the books already this season. The duo is a great combination atop the lineup. Bryan De La Cruz, Jesus Sanchez, and Garrett Cooper are a playable righty-lefty-righty trio that has a bit of power upside and solid contact metrics. De La Cruz has a 124 WRC+ in 240 plate appearances and is slashing .298/.350/.468, Sanchez has six home runs and an 11% barrel rate after missing some time with an injury, and Cooper has a 10.1% barrel rate and 47.7% hard-hit rate but just six home runs in 172 plate appearances. Joey Wendle, Jean Segura, Jacob Stallings, and Jonathan Davis mostly support the idea of a good Kopech game from the bottom of the lineup.
The White Sox are facing Sandy Alcantara who has been a ghost of the pitcher that won the National League Cy Young Award last year. Alcantara has dropped from 23.4% strikeouts to just 21%, his WHIP is up from 0.98 to 1.22, his ERA has spiked from 2.28 to 5.07 with a more concerning rise in his xFIP from 3.29 to 4.22. Alcantara has walked more and struck out fewer but his swinging-strike rate and CSW% as well as most of his contact metrics look about the same as last year, the results have just not been there. The righty is priced down to just $9,500 against a White Sox team that will not have Eloy Jimenez and has struggled overall for run creation all season. At the price, and with the idea of some depth of start from the sturdy righty, there is still enough belief to include Alcantara as a high-end starter option on a relatively light slate for pitching. The White Sox lineup is clipped to just 4.01 implied runs, Tim Anderson and Andrew Benintendi are difficult to strike out in the first two spots in the lineup, but they have done very little with the hit tool and on-base skills they are expected to provide. Anderson has a 75 WRC+ in 196 plate appearances and Benintendi is at just 87. Luis Robert Jr. has been the team’s best player, he has 14 home runs and a 127 WRC+ over 258 plate appearances. Andrew Vaughn is slashing .242/.327/.416 with a .173 ISO and 108 WRC+ in 263 plate appearances and, despite the light performance overall, has been one of the team’s top bats. Yoan Moncada missed time but has not been great since his return, creating runs 15% worse than average with three home runs in 1325 plate appearances. Jake Burger has a 6.51 in our home run model, the second-highest score on the team behind Robert in this matchup. Burger hit 13 home runs early in the season but they are somewhat unrealistic in a go-forward sense, he is playable but expectations should be kept to realistic levels. Gavin Sheets has left-handed power late in the lineup, he has seven home runs in 150 plate appearances this year and hit 15 in 410 tries last season. Romy Gonzalez and Seby Zavala are at the bottom of the lineup in a lousy spot.
Play: Sandy Alcantara, Michael Kopech, only small doses of either side’s bats
Update Notes: the Marlins will have Yuli Gurriel hitting fifth, he has a productive hit tool but limited power in this form. Jon Berti is hitting ninth, he stole 41 bases last year but has been limited to seven in 189 plate appearances this season. The White Sox have their lineup in the expected form but Elvis Andrus steps in for Gonzalez to downgrade the bottom of the lineup and Yasmani Grandal will catch instead of Zavala.
Cincinnati Reds (+150/3.78) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-164/4.83)
Righty Miles Mikolas is not an intimidating presence on the mound. Mikolas is a contact-oriented pitcher who is effective but does not rack up strikeouts. He has an 18.5% strikeout rate this year, which is essentially identical to the 19% he posted over 202.1 innings in 32 starts last season. The righty has a 4.6% walk rate with a 1.34 WHIP and 3.74 ERA with a 4.15 xFIP underneath. For $8,100, there are worse options at SP2 than taking shares of Mikolas and the idea of clean innings against this low-end Reds team. The Cincinnati lineup opens with Jake Fraley, who offers left-handed pop and a bit of speed, he has seven home runs and 11 stolen bases in 197 plate appearances and costs $4,200. Matt McLain is a premium rookie in this lineup, just not the premium rookie. McLain has been here longer and is slashing a robust .350/.404/.530 with two home runs and two steals and a 148 WRC+ in his 109 plate appearances, he costs just $4,500 at shortstop. Jonathan India hits ahead of Elly De La Cruz, India is a good player who has provided fantasy value over the past couple of seasons, he has six home runs and 12 steals in 282 plate appearances as an affordable second baseman. De La Cruz is baseball’s most exciting rookie and a potentially major talent, he has to work out his strikeouts, right now he has a 52.9% strikeout rate over 17 plate appearances, but he has also homered, tripled, doubled, singled, stolen a base, scored four times, and driven in two. He costs $4,000 with eligibility at third base or shortstop. Spencer Steer rounds out a highly-playable top-5 in the lineup, he has been very good this year. Steer is slashing .286/.367/.480 with a 124 WRC+ over 259 plate appearances. Tyler Stephenson, Will Benson, Stuart Fairchild, and Luke Maile round out the lineup in fairly low-end style, these are the mix-and-match guys in the Reds lineup.
Against rookie left-hander Andrew Abbott the Cardinals are pulling down a 4.83-run implied team total and look like an opportunity for stacking at the plate once again, for better or worse. Abbott is making his second start, he is a light-out lefty who is one of the more highly regarded prospect pitchers in baseball. In his first game, Abbott threw six scoreless innings against the Brewers, striking out six and allowing just one hit, but walking four. The walks are the primary hiccup with Abbott, he is an otherwise polished prospect with upside. At $6,500, Abbott is not off the board given his strikeout acumen, but there are several quality discount SP2 options on the DraftKings slate. Tommy Edman should lead off for the Cardinals with a lefty on the mound, he is effective in this role but has a 98 WRC+ overall in his 221 plate appearances. Edman costs $4,200 and offers moderate power and speed in the outfield, with good correlated scoring potential. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are a pair of righties who are likely headed for Cooperstown when they’re through, they could feast on a rookie lefty. Willson Contreras climbs in the lineup with Nolan Gorman projected for a day off with the same-handed pitcher on the mound. Contreras has not been good this season, slashing just .211/.299/.366 with an 87 WRC+ in 241 opportunities. Luken Baker was raking in the minors and costs just $2,200 but is a first baseman and not someone we want to choose over Goldschmidt too frequently. Paul DeJong, Dylan Carlson, Jordan Walker, and Oscar Mercado round out the projected batting order, they are playable mix-in parts with potential for upside from the right side of the plate.
Play: Andrew Abbott value with strikeout upside, Cardinals bats/stacks, Reds bats/stacks in smaller portions, Miles Mikolas in small shares
Update Notes: the Reds lineup runs TJ Friedl-McLain-India-De La Cruz-Steer-Stephenson-Benson-Fairchild-Maile, Friedl is capable but represents a downgrade from Fraley. The Cardinals lineup includes Edman-Goldschmidt-Arenado with Baker hitting cleanup ahead of Carlson-DeJong-Walker-Brendan Donovan–Andrew Knizner with Contreras out of the lineup.
Minnesota Twins (-115/4.15) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+108/3.92)
The Blue Jays will have Bowden Francis on the mound for his second career MLB appearance this afternoon. The righty has a 35.4% strikeout rate with a 3.25 xFIP and 3.45 ERA in four AAA starts this season. He threw 0.2 innings in the Show last year and struck out one. Francis is a 27-year-old who is not highly regarded as a prospect by any rankings list we have absorbed, but his AAA numbers in the tiny sample were fine. He will be facing a free-swinging Twins team with an aggressive overall strikeout rate today, but the pitcher’s arsenal is not one that should inspire fear in Major League hitters, he works in the mid-90s with only adequate offspeed and breaking pitches according to most reporting. The Twins lineup is projected to take a fairly weak form once again, and there are plenty of strikeouts available for the $5,000 starter, he is not off the board in this matchup at the price. Willi Castro is projected to lead off at a cheap price, he has a handful of home runs and 11 stolen bases with a 99 WRC+ to start the year. Alex Kirilloff is slashing .300/.432/.456 with three home runs in 111 plate appearances. Carlos Correa has an 11.5% barrel rate and 41.2% hard-hit rate that give hope in addition to his career track record, but this season has not been pretty. The former All-Star has seven home runs and a 91 WRC+ with a .212/300/.384 triple-slash over 230 plate appearances. Donovan Solano is a light-hitting option to slot in at cleanup, he has zero home runs and a .083 ISO with a 102 WRC+ over 163 plate appearances. Trevor Larnach has power from the left side, he has five home runs on the year but is striking out at a 34.8% clip over 164 plate appearances. Royce Lewis is priced at $3,800 at third base, he has two home runs and a 99 WRC+ in his 37 plate appearances since being called-up. Max Kepler slots in with six home runs but a .188/.262/.361 triple-slash. Michael A. Taylor and Ryan Jeffers can deliver low-owned power from the bottom of the lineup, Taylor hit his ninth home run of the season last night at almost no popularity.
The Blue Jays are facing Joe Ryan who has their run total in check and who has been mostly excellent over 71.2 innings in 12 starts this season. Ryan will be challenged by the low-strikeout Blue Jays, who have several premium stars in their lineup, but he has been equal to the task for most of 2023, pitching to a 2.76 ERA and 3.55 xFIP with a 28.3% strikeout rate. For $10,600, Ryan is a big investment on this slate, but he should prove worthwhile once again and projects near the top of the board. The Blue Jays will have their typical sturdy top end in place, George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are all excellent at limiting strikeouts and they have a ton of home run potential on any given slate. Even Ryan’s talents have them sitting only around the magic number for home runs, with Guerrero cruising over the line to 11.18. At $2,400 Brandon Belt has been a bargain, the lefty slugger has a 129 WRC+ over 178 plate appearances and simply should cost more. The matchup is not great with a talented pitcher on the mound, but Belt should be popular within stacks of Blue Jays. Matt Chapman, Whit Merrifield, and Daulton Varsho are all very playable regulars. Chapman and Varsho have major power upside with limitations in other areas, while Merrifield is a high quality hit-and-speed option who has 16 stolen bases. Alejandro Kirk and Cavan Biggio round out the lineup.
Play: Joe Ryan, Bowden Francis value in small shares, only minor investment in either lineup
Update Notes: The Twins variable lineup includes Edouard Julien, a highly regarded prospect with a limited 72 plate appearance sample so far, followed by Solano-Kirilloff-Correa-Larnach-Castro-Kepler-Jeffers-Taylor. The Blue Jays lineup looks as expected with the exception of Santigao Espinal hitting ninth instead of Biggio.
San Diego Padres (-128/6.41) @ Colorado Rockies (+118/5.73)
The Padres and Rockies square off in Coors Field once again, and with Ryan Weathers and Kyle Freeland on the mound we can breeze right to the bats. The visiting Padres have the highest implied team total on the slate and several star-caliber players in their lineup. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto get things started for $6,300 and $6,100 and are well worth the price in a Coors Field game, or in most other ballparks. The two stars have 22 combined home runs, with Tatis carrying a 125 WRC+ and Soto at 151. Manny Machado has not been himself this season, but that is why he costs just $5,300 at Coors Field, he is not skippable when building Padres stacks. Gary Sanchez has five home runs in 44 plate appearances after hitting yet another last night. The catcher is a flawed player at the plate with his aggressive approach but he has monster power when he connects, which is an undeniable fact that somehow is widely debated when it comes to the player’s quality. Gary Sanchez is a Major League caliber power hitter who belongs in a lineup playing every day in a league that has a universal designated hitter. Xander Bogaerts is another star who has not been himself for the last month and change, after a very hot start to carry the team. Bogarets is also cheap at just $5,400, with Sanchez at $4,000 there are easily affordable discounts in the high-end lineup. Jake Cronenworth, Ha-Seong Kim, Brandon Dixon, and Austin Nola round out the lineup, they are far more playable at Coors. Cronenworth was good last year with a 110 WRC+ but has stumbled this season and has not hit for power either. Kim is a moderate pop and speed player who can provide value with multi-position eligibility at $4,200.
The Rockies have power-hitting right-handed rookie Brenton Doyle atop the projected lineup. Doyle has four home runs in 115 plate appearances and an 11.8% barrel rate for the season, he is a buy at $4,000. Jurickson Profar costs $4,500 and should be cheaper, his 82 WRC+ in 254 plate appearances atop the lineup tells the story of wasted time. Ryan McMahon and Elias Diaz join Randal Grichuk in the heart of the order to form a weak power core. McMahon has nine home runs but losses upside against same-handed pitching, Diaz has been very good as a cheap low-owned catcher, he has a 107 WRC+, and Grichuk has a 119 WRC+ that leads the team’s projected lineup. Elehuris Montero is a highly regarded rookie finding his way in the show, he has one home run and a .234/.269/.359 triple-slash with a 54 WRC+ in 67 plate appearances. Alan Trejo, Ezequiel Tovar, and Austin Wynns round out the projected lineup in low-end fashion. The Rockies are likely to be the lower-owned component in this game across the board, they have a robust 5.73-run implied total in a game at Coors Field and should not be ignored, regardless of their general lack of talent.
Play: bats bats bats
Update Notes: the Padres lineup runs as expected. The Rockies have Profar-Grichuk-McMahon-Diaz-Montero-Nolan Jones-Tovar-Trejo-and then Brenton Doyle, who sees a downgrade for the drop from the leadoff role to ninth.
Kansas City Royals (+138/4.10) @ Baltimore Orioles (-150/5.00)
The Royals and Orioles square off in Baltimore with Cole Irvin on the hill for the home team. Irvin has a 20% strikeout rate and 12.3% walk rate in his three starts this year, he struck out 17.3% in 181 innings and 30 starts last year while pitching to a 3.98 ERA and 4.35 xFIP and he gave up above-average premium contact. Irvin seems more targetable than playable in this spot, though the Royals have been lousy for strikeouts and have loaned upside to a variety of starting pitchers this season. For $6,200 there is a smidge of potential for Irvin, but he is not one of our preferred value SP2s. The Royals lineup can produce power but they have a significant strikeout problem. The projected lineup opens with Maikel Garcia up top, he has a 26.5% strikeout rate with an 85 WRC+ and only one home run with five steals. Bobby Witt Jr. slots in second ahead of MJ Melendez and Sal Perez, creating a strong power trio in the 2-4 spots. Witt has 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases, Melendez has struggled for stats with just five home runs, but his 12.2% barrel rate and 54.7% hard-hit mark are top-notch, and Perez has 12 home runs to lead the team. Edward Olivares and Nick Pratto are good options in the middle of the lineup. Olivares has a bit of power and speed but just a 93 WRC+ in 170 plate appearances, he is unlikely to be popular. Lefty-hitting Pratto has a 138 WRC+ in 151 strong plate appearances with four home runs, he is slashing .300/.391/.462 and might be the team’s best pure hitter. Freddy Fermin, Matt Duffy, and Drew Waters close things out.
The Orioles will face Brady Singer who has not been very good through most of this season after a strong campaign last year. Singer put up a 24.2% strikeout rate with a 3.23 ERA and 3.30 xFIP in 153.1 innings and 24 starts last year, he was expected to make another step forward but now has a 6.45 ERA and 4.42 xFIP. His strikeouts have also fallen off year-over-year, he is working at just a 20.5% rate over 60 innings and 12 starts in 2023. Singer has been targetable for power and run creation this season, the Orioles have a good opportunity and a 5.0-run implied total, at $5,800 Singer is at best a longshot dart throw. Adam Frazier is back in the leadoff spot, he is slashing just .235/.297/.390 with a 91 WRC+ in 221 plate appearances. Adley Rutschman has a 129 WRC+ with eight home runs and a .139 ISO this season, he is a high end catcher option on most slates and is very difficult to strike out, which should be problematic for Singer. Austin Hays homered out of the leadoff spot last night and might find himself hitting third today. Hays is having a good year at the plate, slashing .306/.344/.502 with a 133 WRC+ and seven home runs. Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle will provide power upside from the fourth and sixth spots in the lineup, what Aaron Hicks will do from the fifth spot is anyone’s guess. Hicks washed out with the Yankees and caught on in Baltimore, he still has the ability to see pitches and draw a walk and can turn on one from time to time, but he has not been good overall in 103 plate appearances this year. Santander and Mountcastle are far more interesting hitters for $4,400 and $4,500. Gunnar Henderson is slashing .220/.342/.411 with a .190 ISO, seven home runs, and four stolen bases and has been coming on strong, but he remains cheap at $3,600 at third base. Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo are playable options late in the lineup.
Play: Orioles bats/stacks, minor shares of Royals bats/stacks
Update Notes: the Orioles have Henderson in the leadoff role, which is a good spot for him, Rutschman-Santander-Hays-Hicks-Ryan O’Hearn-Frazier-Josh Lester-Mateo follows in a less-than-stellar version of the Orioles lineup after the four spot. The Royals lineup runs Pratto-Perez-Melendez-Witt-Garcia-Michael Massey-Olivares-Waters-Fermin which gives a bump to Pratto.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-105/4.31) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-103/4.29)
Right-handed ace Aaron Nola will be on the mound to face the aggressively good Dodgers lineup this afternoon. Nola has a 4.30 ERA and 4.02 xFIP with a 23.6% strikeout rate over 81.2 innings in 13 starts in what has been a down season so far. The righty had a 29.1% strikeout rate last year and 29.8% mark the year before, so we are witnessing a major dropoff in strikeouts along with his inability to limit runs as effectively as we are accustomed to with this pitcher. Nola costs $10,300, and there is no discount for the struggles or for the difficult matchup, so the hope would have to be that the public is not as interested in the starter. Nola projects in the upper-middle of our pitching board, but we are used to seeing him at the top. Expectations have to be somewhat tempered at this point with the Dodgers in town. At the same time, Nola’s talents have the Dodgers’ in check somewhat with only a 4.31-run implied team total. Mookie Betts is a star with second base and outfield eligibility for $6,200. Freddie Freeman is slashing .335/.407/.576 with a 163 WRC+ over 295 plate appearances this year, he has 12 home runs and eight stolen bases and is one of the best first basemen on any slate. Will Smith has a team-leading 14.84 in our home run model, the hyper-talented backstop is slashing .297/.399/.519 with a .222 ISO and nine home runs in 193 plate appearances while striking out just 11.4% of the time. Max Muncy and JD Martinez have ISOs of .292 and .349, with Martinez carrying the bigger number. They have hit a combined 33 home runs, Muncy leads there with 18. The duo is outstanding for power against anyone, there could be major upside for power in the Philadelphia bandbox, at just $5,000 and $5,300, the two sluggers are significant buys when rostering stacks of Dodgers. David Peralta, Miguel Vargas, Jason Heyward, and Miguel Rojas round out the projected batting order. Heyward and Vargas are the more interesting names in the group but the team’s primary quality is in their 1-5.
The Phillies are facing rookie Bobby Miller, who will be making his fourth start. Miller has a 25% strikeout rate and a sparkling 1.06 ERA with a more honest but still good 3.22 xFIP under the covers. The righty has walked just 6.3% while allowing just 4.5% barrels and zero home runs in his first 17 innings. At just $7,000, Miller is in play despite a not-easy matchup and a bad ballpark environment this afternoon. The righty will have to navigate a lineup that includes Kyle Schwarber in the leadoff spot once again. Schwarber has 17 home runs on the season with a 110 WRC+ and .268 ISO, he is a star power hitter for $5,200 even against the premium pitching prospect. Nick Castellanos has seven home runs while slashing .314/.361/.494 with a 130 WRC+ over 266 plate appearances but costs just $4,700 between Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Harper has three home runs and a 125 WRC+ in his 140 plate appearances since returning in early May. The outstanding outfielder has a $6,000 price tag but he is worth the investment when one is rostering stacks of Phillies today. Trea Turner and JT Realmuto are stars at their positions, even with Turner’s struggles he remains one of the best day-to-day players at shortstop, particularly as his price declines. For just $5,500 he is a bargain given the talent in play. Realmuto costs just $5,000, he has five home runs and nine stolen bases but a 91 WRC+, almost directly in line with Bryson Stott, who has matching home run and steals totals and a 92 WRC+ in 266 opportunities. Brandon Marsh and Kody Clemens have good left-handed power from late in the lineup, Marsh has five home runs and a 113 WRC+ over 210 plate appearances, Clemens is at four home runs and a 106 WRC+ and both players have ISOs in the .170s. Drew Ellis rounds out the lineup.
Play: four corners game: Aaron Nola in moderate doses, Phillies bats/stacks, Dodgers bats/stacks, Bobby Miller value
Update Notes: the Dodgers will have their lineup in its projected form from 1-7 with Chris Taylor and James Outman upgrading the final two spots and both Miguels out of the lineup. The Phillies have their expected lineup in place.
New York Mets (-125/4.78) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+114/4.33)
The Mets and Pirates square off in Pittsburgh with a duel between effective starters Johan Ovideo and Kodai Senga. Ovideo has a 19.5% strikeout rate and an inflated 10.8% walk rate this year while pitching to a 4.29 ERA and 4.72 xFIP over 65 innings. He will be facing a limited Mets lineup that is without star Pete Alonso for the next month or so, which should knock them out of contention for good this season. Without their slugger, the Mets are a somewhat non-threatening lineup, but they have a 4.78-run implied total with Oviedo’s lack of strikeouts and inability to limit free passes this season. Oviedo is cheap at $7,500 and he has a bit of playability today, but he does not project overly well and the run total is daunting with many good options available. At the same time, one does not necessarily want to rush to the store to buy Mets shares. The team should have a decent top end, with dynamite leadoff man Brandon Nimmo leading the way. Nimmo hits from the left side and has a 125 WRC+ over 281 plate appearances for just $4,100. The outfielder can be used as a correlated scoring play with shortstop Francisco Lindor who has 12 home runs and should hit cleanup. If rookie catcher Francisco Alvarez slots in second again he is also a part of that stack, Alvarez has 11 home runs and a .295 ISO over 142 plate appearances but could see a day off with Omar Narvaez back in the fold. Jeff McNeil is a slap-hitting correlated scorer who does not belong hitting third, but he is a useable piece with low expectations for MLB DFS purposes. Brett Baty is a high-end young player who came up as a top prospect 156 plate appearances ago. He has a 94 WRC+ and four home runs since the call-up but his 50% hard-hit rate is outstanding and gives one expectation for more. Starling Marte, Daniel Vogelbach, Mark Vientos, and Luis Guillorme round out the lineup. Vientos is another major prospect for this team, he has significant power and hit 13 home runs in AAA this year prior to his call-up.
The Pirates draw Senga, who has a 29.1% strikeout rate but a 14.3% walk rate this season. The righty has made outstanding starts and mediocre starts and has been a bit of a roller coaster through his first 11 starts in the Show, but the strikeout upside is undeniable and has appeal at $9,800. Senga has a 3.75 ERA and 3.96 xFIP, his WHIP is inflated by the walks at 1.44 but he has a very good 12.3% swinging-strike rate and has been able to punch his way out of jams while limiting power potential for opposing teams with just a 2.79% home run rate. Senga will have gamers on the edge of their seats, but he has the potential for a strong DraftKings score for the money. The Pirates are playable as a mid-range stacking option, with the idea of some free chances in play from Senga’s walks. Tucupita Marcano has three home runs and four stolen bases in 128 plate appearances. Bryan Reynolds has hit seven home runs and stolen eight bases, but five of the home runs came before April 15th. Overall he has a 119 WRC+ and has been very good, but his ISO has dipped to .194 and it would be nice to see more frequent power. Andrew McCutchen has a 124 WRC+ with eight home runs and seven steals, most of which was fairly unexpected when the veteran signed in Pittsburgh for what we assumed was a farewell tour. The outfielder has a lot left in the tank at $4,400 on DraftKings this afternoon. Carlos Santana has not been good this season, he has four home runs and a .135 ISO, but Jack Suwinski has been very good this season with 12 home runs and a .267 ISO, they should switch places in this batting order. Ke’Bryan Hayes had a huge day at the plate on Friday, he now sits at .266/.309/.425 with a 97 WRC+ and four home runs, adding seven steals in what suddenly looks like a better line. As we have pointed out, Hayes has been carrying a terrific hard-hit rate all year, indicating there is more to come, hopefully, last night was the start of something not just an outburst from a hitter with a 49.2% hard-hit rate. Ji-Hwan Bae, Josh Palacios, and Austin Hedges round out the projected lineup.
Play: Kodai Senga, Mets bats/stacks, only minor shares of Pirates or Ovideo values
Update Notes: Pittsburgh’s lineup runs McCutchen-Reynolds-Connor Joe-Santana-Suwinski-Hayes-Bae-Marcano-Jason Delay, with Palacios and Hedges taking a seat. Bump to McCutchen, Joe is a nice addition to the lineup and Delay is a good sneaky catcher bat at a cheap price. the Mets lineup runs Nimmo-Alvarez-McNeil-Lindor-Marte-Baty-Pham-Guillorme-Mark Canha.
Oakland Athletics (+164/3.89) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-180/5.22)
The first of the final three games on board for DraftKings is also the first for the FanDuel slate. The Athletics and Brewers square off in a low-end contest that has Milwaukee once again carrying an inflated run total at 5.22. The visiting Athletics are in a much worse situation in Vegas with just a 3.89 total against righty Julio Teheran, who has defied odds and logic in his return to the mound. Teheran has a 1.56 ERA but a 4.84 xFIP and just a 15.4% strikeout rate over 17.1 innings and three starts. Teheran has allowed a 5.7% barrel rate and 37.7% hard hits with a 3.08% home run rate and 90.6 mph of average exit velocity, we remain unconvinced and expect the center to crumble in this situation. Teheran costs $8,700 on both sites and projects as a decent play with an upper-middle spot on our pitching board, part of which come from the stellar matchup against the Athletics. Oakland’s projected lineup includes Esteury Ruiz, a speed-burner with 30 stolen bases in 278 plate appearances this year; Ryan Noda who would have 50 stolen bases already if he had Ruiz’s speed, given his .410 on-base percentage. Noda has seven home runs and a 154 WRC+ as the best player on this team so far in 2023. Seth Brown is a talented lefty with power and speed, he went 25/11 last season and sits with three home runs and two steals after 94 plate appearances this year. Ramon Laureano lands in the cleanup role for $2,600/$2,700 in the outfield. Laureano has five home runs and six stolen bases this year and has posted previous years of double-digits in both arenas, he went 13/11 last season and 14/12 the year before. Jace Peterson is a lefty infielder for $2,200/$2,500 with moderate power upside against Teheran, JJ Bleday offers the same at cheap pricing in the outfield, while Shea Langeliers is an underrated catcher with a bit of home run potential. The backstop has eight homers in 214 plate appearances this season. Kevin Smith rounds out the lineup, the filmmaker of the same name would be almost as effective a hitter.
The Brewers are facing Paul Blackburn who is pushing their expected run total way up. Blackburn has a 6.00 ERA and 4.37 xFIP in a pair of starts so far this year but was at just a 4.28 ERA and 3.89 xFIP with a 19.1% strikeout rate over 111.1 innings in 21 starts last year. Blackburn is not a terrible pitcher, but he is also not an intimidating or overly talented one, he allows average power and strikes hitters out at a below average rate, making him a target more than an option at $6,400/$6,600. The Brewers lineup has seen a few players return in recent days and they have oddball options at low prices on a regular basis. The projected batting order includes Christian Yelich who has a 105 WRC+ with seven home runs and 16 stolen bases this season for $4,800/$3,500. Willy Adames is back in the lineup, he has 10 home runs in 227 plate appearances with a .187 ISO but a limited 85 WRC+ for $4,200/$3,000 at shortstop. Rowdy Tellez has a team-leading 12.34 mark in our home run model with 12 on the board for the season. Owen Miller and Jon Singleton land fourth and fifth, Miller has hit four home runs and is having a solid year with a 120 WRC+ over 10 plate appearances, Singleton is a quad-A power hitter who has zero home runs and a .053 ISO with a 10 WRC+ over 20 plate appearances and has never done much at this level. Joey Wiemer, Brian Anderson, Victor Caratini, and Luis Urias round out the lineup, Urias is the most interesting option with his power upside for $3,500/$2,300 with multi-position eligibility on both sites. At his FanDuel price and with three positions, Urias is a strong buy regardless of where he hits in the lineup, he fills three positions on the blue site and is very cheap for a player who hit 16 home runs last year and 23 the year before.
Play: Brewers bats/stacks, Julio Teheran in small doses that we don’t trust at all, minor shares of Athletics bats if desired or if Teheran gets popular
Update Notes: the Brewers confirmed their lineup with Yelich-Adames-Tellez-Miller-Singleton-Anderson-Wiemer-Caratini-Andruw Monasterio who costs $2,500/$2,700 with eligibility at second base and shortstop on DraftKings.
Texas Rangers (-104/4.04) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-104/4.04)
The battle between two of baseball’s best offensive teams has both squads landing at 4.04-run implied totals in a pick’em game in Vegas. The lack of run expectation is entirely due to the presence of Taj Bradley and Nathan Eovaldi on the mound for their respective teams. Bradley has been outstanding as a rookie for Tampa Bay, posting a 33.1% strikeout rate with a 3.60 ERA and 2.89 xFIP over 35 innings and seven starts this year. The righty costs $9,300/$10,100 in a very difficult matchup, but his talent has so far been undeniable on the mound. Bradley has induced an 11% swinging-strike rate and has limited barrels to just 4.5% with a 2.76% home run rate. The Rangers intimidating lineup could certainly get to the rookie, which could make the path to success somewhat thinner than usual on both sides of the equation. Texas bats are not off the table, but the message in the run total is clear, the expectation should not be for their typical output of either power or run creation. Marcus Semien and Corey Seager will try to make liars out of the oddsmakers early, the outstanding duo has power and speed and excellent run creation ability from the first two spots in the lineup for $5,900/$4,400 each. Nathaniel Lowe has seven home runs and a 121 WRC+ despite a dip in his triple-slash and power output overall this season. He is a good buy that helps afford his teammates at $4,600/$3,400. Adolis Garcia is our overall home run pick for the day, he has a 13.38 in our model and is one of several Rangers hitters showing upside for power despite the presence of the premium rookie on the mound. Garcia has 15 home runs and a .238 ISO this season. Josh Jung has 13 homers and a .227 ISO with a 138 WRC+ over 252 plate appearances in a big step forward in 2023. Jonah Heim and Mitch Garver both have upside at the catcher spot for $4,500/$3,400 and $4,200/$3,300. Garver has three home runs in 44 plate appearances and hit 23 over the past two seasons, Heim has seven this year in 211 opportunities. Robbie Grossman and Leody Taveras round out the projected lineup.
The Rays will have to answer back against Nathan Eovaldi who has been one of the top options in the game for most of the season. Eovaldi has a 2.24 ERA and 3.30 xFIP with a 0.93 WHIP and 25.2% strikeout rate over 80.1 innings and 12 starts. The righty has been pitching deep into ballgames and chasing wins and quality starts throughout and his strikeout upside has improved year-over-year while he has maintained his long-standing ability to limit walks to under five percent. Eovaldi is worth the $11,000 price tag on either site, even with the Rays on the other side of the matchup. The hope at his price and with this opponent is that he will be somewhat less popular than he should be for MLB DFS action. Those wishing to roster Rays against Eovaldi have an entire nine-man lineup from which to choose hitters, the team has been good top to bottom in basically any configuration this year. The projected lineup includes Yandy Diaz, who has 12 home runs and a 176 WRC+ over 233 plate appearances; Wander Franco, who has seven homers and 22 stolen bases with a 138 WRC+ for $5,800/$4,100 at shortstop; and Josh Lowe who slots in at $4,800/$3,600 in the outfield. Lowe has 11 home runs and 14 stolen bases with a .251 ISO and 149 WRC+ over 197 plate appearances in what is becoming a real performance. Randy Arozarena is an excellent outfielder who has 12 home runs to lead the team and adds nine stolen bases and a 158 WRC+ over 266 opportunities. Arozarena has a 14.8% barrel rate and 50.6% hard-hit rate, both of which fall behind Luke Raley who sits at 17.4% and 55.4% in a 161 plate appearances sample to lead the team in contact. Raley has turned that premium contact into 11 home runs and a .329 ISO so far. Isaac Paredes also has 11 home runs, he has a .233 ISO and 144 WRC+ in 213 plate appearances while Taylor Walls has seven home runs in 183 opportunities with 15 steals. Jose Siri adds yet another 11 home runs to the team’s ridiculous tally, he has a 130 WRC+ in 135 plate appearances and is valuable anywhere in the lineup for $3,800/$3,600. Francisco Mejia is a backup catcher who is the statistical weak link in the excellent projected lineup.
Play: any of the four corners in this one is in play and can be deployed at will, the pitchers are probably ahead of the hitters but it is not a wide gap on any side.a
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Washington Nationals (+160/4.36) @ Atlanta Braves (-175/5.77)
The final game on the DraftKings slate will see a divisional contest between the annoying Nationals and the outstanding Braves. The Atlanta squad was mostly shut down after flashing upside for power against Josiah Gray yesterday, and they will be facing a better starter in MacKenzie Gore on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Nationals will have to contend with lefty Jared Shuster, which puts them on the better side of their team splits. Washington has been far better at hitting left-handed pitching than righties this season, they are in play against Shuster, particularly with the southpaw pitching in somewhat low-end form. Shuster has a 4.99 ERA and 6.19 xFIP with a limited 16.2% strikeout rate and an ugly 14.6% walk rate, he is not an option at $6,700/$7,100. The Nationals lineup includes Lane Thomas, who has a 113 WRC+ with nine home runs and who is substantially better against lefties. Thomas is a good starting point at $4,400/$3,200, he can be played with Luis Garcia an effective enough infielder at cheap prices, as well as better options like Joey Meneses, who is up to a 105 WRC+ overall and has a bit of power and a good bat on the right side of the plate, and Stone Garrett who has two home runs with a .108 ISO but a 52.9% hard-hit rate that suggests far more righty power to come. Jeimer Candelario is better for power against righties but has hit lefties for a better average and run creation in his career, though that is not the case this year with basically all of his upside coming against righties. Keibert Ruiz is a playable catcher with power potential that has been examined in this space recently. At just $3,700/$2,900, Ruiz is in play against the limited lefty. Dominic Smith, Alex Call, and Ildemaro Vargas round out the projected Nationals’ lineup.
The Braves are basically in play any day, the team runs 1-9 with quality on most nights, and they have power up and down the lineup that can bend an MLB DFS slate in an instant. The matchup against Gore is an interesting one, the lefty has a 29.2% strikeout rate over 12 starts and 64 innings, but he has also walked 10.2% while allowing a nine percent barrel rate with 42.8% hard hits and a 3.28% home run rate that could play well for Atlanta’s lineup. Gore is in play at $8,900/$9,000, he has demonstrated the talent and the strikeout acumen to get through this lineup cleanly while posting a strong score, but he is far from a lock or someone to whom gamers should get over-exposed, which should be perfectly clear from Atlanta’s 5.77-run implied team total. Ronald Acuna Jr. cost $6,400/$4,600, he has a dozen home runs and 28 stolen bases and is one of the best players in the sport. Matt Olson is slightly more affordable at $5,800/$3,900 but there is no real reason he should be much cheaper with 17 home runs and a .265 ISO while creating runs 27% better than average at first base. Austin Riley slumped for a minute but is back on track and now has 11 home runs with a 116 WRC+ over 276 plate appearances. Ozzie Albies is hitting cleanup in the confirmed lineup, with Sean Murphy getting the day off. Albies will be more popular than usual in this role, he is always underrated and under-owned, today he is just inexpensive for his upside in the role. Albies has 14 home runs and a .228 ISO this season. Travis d’Arnaud will do the catching today, he is a step down from Murphy, but almost anyone would be. d’Arnaud is no slouch, he hit 18 home runs in 426 plate appearances last year and has significant upside in the heart of the lineup at $4,100/$2,600. Marcell Ozuna has major power and has hit 12 home runs this year but is limited in most other aspects of the game. Orlando Arcia is a great piece of positional value in the infield while Kevin Pillar is more of a defensive outfielder but has six home runs this year. Michael Harris II has three homers and five steals with a 57 WRC+ in 151 plate appearances in a tough second season, but we believe in the talent and the price is cheap and declining.
Play: Nationals bats/stacks, Braves bats/stacks, MacKenzie Gore in small doses
Update Notes: the Braves lineup was confirmed in the original draft
Houston Astros (+119/3.81) @ Cleveland Guardians (-129/4.28)
We’ll be back to wrap up the FanDuel slate’s remaining four games after a short break.
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Boston Red Sox (+107/4.17) @ New York Yankees (-116/4.42)
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Chicago Cubs (+136/3.89) @ San Francisco Giants (-148/4.71)
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Seattle Mariners (+120/4.27) @ Los Angeles Angels (-130/4.83)
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