A not as much smaller than yesterday as it seemed while hitting the snooze button this morning 13-game MLB DFS main slate gets underway at the traditional 7:05 ET start time on both DraftKings and FanDuel this evening. The slate includes a good mix of opportunities at the plate and fewer strong options on the mound. Today’s pitching board is comprised of a few high-end options and a wide mid-range with obvious landmines to avoid. Getting to a good value spread through the mid-level starters who will fall behind the pace of the aces when it comes to popularity is a good way to differentiate and forklift a lineup into the top of standings on a slate of this nature. The top-end starters should be included in a pitching pool as well, of course, but there are numerous capable pitchers at fair prices who will probably not be noteworthy blips on the public’s radar, creating advantages for those who know where to look.
Don’t miss our new Stack Suggestions feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
Join us at 4:15 pm ET for the MLB DFS Lineup Card Show and a full game-by-game breakdown:
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 6/28/23
Cincinnati Reds (+156/4.17) @ Baltimore Orioles (-170/5.44)
The showdown between two exciting young teams continues in Baltimore tonight with the hometown Orioles coming in as fairly heavy favorites with veteran righty Kyle Gibson on the mound. Gibson has been a roughly league-average pitcher through his 16 starts this season, with a strikeout rate that falls below average at 17.8. The righty has a 4.30 ERA and 4.49 xFIP with a 1.34 WHIP and 9.1% swinging-strike rate over 92 innings, all of which are off from his career marks. Over the past two seasons, Gibson had a 20.4% strikeout rate in 61 starts and 349.2 innings and pitched to a roughly 4.00 xFIP, he is very much an average starter but it is important to remember that average starters do put up a handful of strong performances each season. Gibson projects to the middle of the pitching board for $7,900/$8,000 on this slate, he is playable on both sites as a low-expectation option with a bit of strikeout upside from the young free-swinging Reds. Cincinnati checks in with just a 4.17-run implied total but plenty of talent in their lineup. The projected version opens with TJ Friedl at $4,300/$3,000 in the outfield. Friedl has five homers and 12 stolen bases with a 127 WRC+ in 226 plate appearances and is a good catalyst in this position in the batting order. Matt McLain had another strong game yesterday and is looking more like a star as the season progresses. McLain is slashing .321/.378/.552 with a .230 ISO and six home runs while creating runs 44% better than average in 180 plate appearances since his promotion. The shortstop is a great option at just $4,400/$3,800 when stacking Reds. Jonathan India costs $4,700/$3,300 at second base, he has 10 home runs and 12 stolen bases and belongs in most stacks of Reds hitters on this slate. Elly De La Cruz slots in at third base or shortstop and DraftKings has given McLain second base eligibility, which makes the Reds a dynamic bunch that can be flexed positionally in interesting ways. De La Cruz has been a fireball since coming up to the Show, he has three home runs and eight stolen bases and has created runs 33% better than average in 84 plate appearances while hitting balls harder and running faster than the vast majority of Major Leaguers. De La Cruz has his flaws, his 31% strikeout rate is definitely a concern, but he has superstar talent for $5,500/$4,500. Jake Fraley and Joey Votto add good left-handed power in the heart of the lineup at fair prices, Fraley has 11 home runs and 12 steals in 227 plate appearances and Votto has hit three since his return last week. Spencer Steer is the last necessary bat in this lineup, he has 12 home runs and eight stolen bases with a .208 ISO and 126 WRC+ in a good breakout season. Steer has a 40.3% hard-hit rate, he strikes out at just an 18.3% clip, and he walks at a 10.7% pace that keeps him involved in everything this offense does. Will Benson and catcher Tyler Stephenson are playable mix-in options late in the lineup.
The Orioles will face Luke Weaver, a veteran righty who has more talent on the mound than his results would suggest. Weaver is not a good option for MLB DFS purposes by a longshot, he does have the potential to find a few strikeouts at a cheap price, but we are talking about a pitcher with a 6.86 ERA and 4.69 xFIP this season and similar numbers through his career. Weaver’s strikeouts are down from 21.8% in 35.2 innings last year and 22.5% in 65.2 innings and 13 starts in 2021 to just 19.3% in 60.1 innings this year. His home run rate sits at a whopping 5.11% on 11.4% barrels, 90.2 mph of exit velocity, and a 43.3% hard-hit rate. Weaver is targetable with Orioles bats, the Baltimore lineup has plenty of talent and they are carrying a 5.44-run implied total that is one of the higher non-Coors marks on the slate. Cedric Mullins leads off the projected lineup, he missed a few weeks with an injury but returns to a .262/.357/.466 triple-slash with eight home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 130 WRC+. Mullins is a high-end lefty leadoff hitter with mid-range power and excellent speed, he is a strong option for $4,700/$3,400. Adley Rutschman has power and excellent on-base and run-creation skills for a catcher, he costs $5,100/$2,900, the FanDuel price is too low for this player and he can be deployed like a first baseman on the blue site. Anthony Santander has a 10.7% barrel rate and 44.2% hard hits for the season that have translated to 14 home runs and a .224 ISO, the switch-hitting outfielder costs just $4,400/$3,300 in the high-value Orioles lineup. Ryan O’Hearn is not as good as he has been over 110 plate appearances this season. So far in 2023, the lefty slugger is slashing .314/.355/.559 with six home runs and a .245 ISO while creating runs 51% better than average in the small sample. For $3,200/$2,600 with eligibility at first base and in the outfield on DraftKings and just at first base on FanDuel, O’Hearn is easily playable in Orioles stacks. Austin Hays is cheap at $3,800/$2,900 in the outfield. Hays has eight home runs and has created runs 37% better than average this season. Gunnar Henderson is still affordable at $4,600/$3,200 with eligibility at third base and shortstop on both sites. Henderson is a premium rookie who has come on strong in recent weeks, he now has 11 home runs and a 124 WRC+ with a .217 ISO for the cheap pricing. Jordan Westburg was called up to start the week, the premium rookie infielder fits in at second base for $2,900 on DraftKings and is a $2,700 shortstop on FanDuel. Westburg has scored a run and driven one in over his nine opportunities so far, he is a very good value option in Orioles stacks today. Adam Frazier and Jorge Mateo can contribute from the bottom of the lineup, Mateo has elite skills that almost never come together for DFS purposes, he was outrageously good in April and has since vanished entirely.
Play: Orioles bats/stacks, Reds bats/stacks in smaller portions
Update Notes:
San Diego Padres (-159/4.79) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+146/3.81)
The game in Pittsburgh features an interesting pitching duel with Mitch Keller taking the mound for the home team. Keller has been far more hittable over his last six starts than he was in his first 10 this season. Over the last six outings, the righty has allowed four earned runs or more four times, with his strikeout output dipping to more normalized levels. Keller was elite to start the season, overall his line sits at a very good 3.45 ERA and 3.32 xFIP with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate that all look outstanding compared to seasons past. Keller is facing the Padres and he costs $9,900/$10,800 with a fairly strong projection in our pitching model. The righty and his opponent are two of the highest-projected pitchers on the board but we have to lean toward the Padres starter in a head-to-head matchup, given the talent in the San Diego lineup that Keller will have to face. Both starters are strong buys on the slate, the hope would be that Keller’s full-freight pricing in a tough matchup will keep the public popularity at bay. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto will have a lot to say about Keller’s ability to succeed tonight. The two stars will likely hit behind Ha-Seong Kim atop the Padres lineup once again. Kim is a good option for correlation in the leadoff spot, he can provide counting stats in the form of low-end power and good speed, he has eight home runs and 13 stolen bases in 279 plate appearances, but his true job is to get on base and set the table for the team’s sluggers. Tatis has 15 home runs this season, Soto has 14, and they are creating runs 41% and 54% better than average. Soto is a superstar hitter who has major power and a superhuman ability to identify pitches and get on base, he turns 25 at the end of the season and is on pace to have walked more than almost anyone at that age in baseball history (with months to go, Soto has walked 580 times in 3,012 plate appearances, he trails only Bryce Harper 585/3,957, Eddie Yost 620/3,893, Mel Ott 620/4,649, and Mickey Mantle 670/4,116), he is too cheap at $5,500/$3,700. Manny Machado costs $5,600/$3,100, he is far too cheap for his talent on FanDuel. Machado has been mired in a season-long slump and sits at .253/.297/.410 with a .157 ISO and 94 WRC+ but the track record is just too significant, we are happy to continue taking the discount. Xander Bogaerts falls into a similar bucket as Machado, he has scuffled somewhat over the past six-to-eight weeks, but he is a discounted star in the long term. Jake Cronenworth, Gary Sanchez, Rougned Odor, and Trent Grisham round out the lineup, they are playable in descending order as they appear in the lineup. Cronenworth has provided more correlated scoring as well as power and speed in the past but has been lousy this season, Sanchez is a home run or a zero on most slates but has massive power when he connects as a cheap catcher, and the other two are mix-in options at best.
The hometown Pirates draw lefty ace Blake Snell, who lands at $10,300/$11,100 against a Pirates active roster that sits exactly in the middle of the league with a 106 WRC+ against lefties this year. Pittsburgh has a collective 22.3% strikeout rate and .161 ISO in the split, they are by no means elite but this is the better side of platoon action for them. Snell can dominate on the mound on the right night, the southpaw has a 30.7% strikeout rate in 81 innings and 15 starts this season, his one flaw is that he walks too many. Snell’s 11.8% walk rate is aggressively high, but he is able to counter it by punching holes in the lineup with his elite strikeout stuff. The lefty has a 14.4% swinging-strike rate and 29.3% CSW% for the season. Snell has allowed a bit of premium contact with a 9.8% barrel rate but it has not cost him, his home runs sit at just 2.95% on 37.3% hard hits and 88.6 mph of exit velocity. Snell has been a similar pitcher throughout his career, there are no surprises in the current-year output, he is a strong buy even at high prices on both sites and lands second overall on our pitching board. Snell is very likely to be the most popular pitcher on both sites, but a big slate should spread ownership to playable levels across the board, rostering the lefty at or above the field is not a mistake, nor is undercutting public ownership in an effort to spread shares across the broad range of mid-level alternatives at cost savings. The Pirates are not a priority stack in this matchup. Pittsburgh is without their best player, Bryan Reynolds, and they are facing a pitcher who should have a limiting impact on them at a minimum. Ke’Bryan Hayes is slotted into the leadoff role against the lefty, which is a good spot for the hitter in general despite his .290 on-base percentage. Hayes strikes the ball well when he connects and he strikes out at just a 19.8% rate, he needs to draw more walks in this spot in the lineup but if one is choosing to roster Pirates he should be included at $3,700/$2,700. Andrew McCutchen has cooled significantly in recent weeks, he has nine home runs and nine stolen bases with a 130 WRC+ but that was true a few weeks ago as well. Connor Joe hits third against the lefty, he has six home runs on the year with three stolen bases after a hot couple of weeks to start the season. Joe sits at just .242/.331/.429 with a 108 WRC+ for $3,100/$2,400, he has a 4.60 in our home run model and just an OK projection against Snell. Carlos Santana has seven home runs and a .147 ISO and has been nine percent below average creating runs in the heart of the lineup on a daily basis. Henry Davis is a high-end rookie who slots into the outfield for $2,200/$2,400, he retains catcher eligibility on FanDuel but not where the position is needed, which cuts into his DraftKings value. Davis is a potentially premium catcher, as an outfielder he is more run-of-the-mill. Rodolfo Castro is a killer against lefties, for his career Castro is a .286/.347/.577 slugger with a .291 ISO and 149 WRC+ against southpaws and is below replacement level against righties at .195/.271/.297 with a .102 ISO, a 60 WRC+, and a 32% strikeout rate. Snell is a lefty but this is not a good spot overall, not all lefties are created equally and plate appearances against the bullpen will likely come against righties. Nick Gonzales, Ji-Hwan Bae, and Austin Hedges round out the lineup in low-end form.
Play: Blake Snell fairly enthusiastically but he will be popular, Padres bats/stacks, Mitch Keller in moderate doses
Update Notes:
San Francisco Giants (+102/4.23) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-120/4.46)
Veteran righty Trevor Richards is slated to make the start for the Blue Jays tonight, but he should not be expected to go beyond three innings or so. The righty has been working in a long relief role out of the bullpen and he went exactly 3.0 in his two outings as a nominal starter. Richards has been good in the hybrid role, he has a 35.8% strikeout rate with a 3.59 xFIP and 3.53 ERA in 35.2 innings but he has been targetable for power. The righty has allowed a 4.73% home run rate with 11.7% barrels and 90 mph of exit velocity in the small sample. In his first start, against the Twins on the 10th, Richards struck out a whopping seven of 11 hitters in his three innings, in the second start he struck out two Rangers while allowing three runs on three hits including two home runs. The Giants free-swinging but high-quality approach falls somewhere in between the Twins and Rangers on the talent spectrum, Richards could find a few strikeouts in the short outing but he does not have much runway to pay off a $5,500 price on either site. The Giants are also drawing slate-leading marks for power against the righty and seem likely to hit him hard before getting to the bullpen. LaMonte Wade Jr. is our overall home run pick for the day with a 10.29 in our model. The first baseman costs $4,100/$3,200 despite nine home runs, a .410 on-base percentage, and a mark for run creation that sits 44% ahead of the league average. Wade is a premium option at cheap prices when he is in the leadoff spot, which is every day against a righty, he has even been better against lefties this season but sees very little love from the DFS community, Wade is a strong under-owned option on this slate. Joc Pederson is not a stranger to MLB DFS gamers, the platoon-based power specialist mashes right-handed pitching and has been a strong source of home runs in the split for several seasons. Pederson has eight long balls in 170 plate appearances with a .225 ISO and belongs in a majority of Giants stacks in this matchup. JD Davis has 10 homers and a 131 WRC+ and is cheap at just $4,200/$2,900. Davis has maintained steady production through the season with a 10.3% barrel rate and 48.9% hard-hit mark, he is very good for the price in this matchup. Michael Conforto has light tower power from the left side, he has 12 home runs and a 108 WRC+ on the season, and costs just $4,000/$3,100. The Giants are a good source of value on both sites tonight. Blake Sabol is a cheap lefty catcher with a bit of power, he has seven home runs but just a league-average 100 WRC+, Thairo Estrada drops in the lineup in this projected version, he has power and speed and is a high-end player who would see reduced ownership later in the lineup, which enhances his value. Patrick Bailey, Brandon Crawford, and Luis Matos round out the projected lineup as playable parts.
The Blue Jays are almost always a playable stack, but their opponent tonight is very good at limiting potential home run power which has their implied total at 4.46 in Vegas tonight. Righty Logan Webb is a good pitcher, he has a 24% strikeout rate over 16 starts and 105.1 innings this season and is typically good at limiting home runs. Webb had a 1.40% home run rate last year on a 3.1-degree launch angle and he allowed just 1.51% long balls on a -0.5-degree angle the year before. This season he has allowed a few more home runs at 3.10% but his launch angle remains just 2.4 degrees on average, meaning we are probably looking at a few mistakes and some misfortune rather than a flaw. The righty has been very good with a 3.16 ERA and 3.06 xFIP while walking just five percent of opposing hitters. Webb is not a blow ’em away starter on the mound, but he is a very effective pitcher who has strikeout acumen and works deep into ballgames, his 105.1 innings in 16 starts is tied with Nathan Eovaldi for the league lead and outpaces starters like Kevin Gausman and Zac Gallen, who have both thrown fewer innings in 17 starts. In a game that rewards depth and clean innings, Webb has value at $10,600/$10,700, even against a deadly-good lineup like Toronto’s. The righty is a playable piece who is not likely to have a lot of popularity tonight, he projects in the top-10 on our pitching board on a deep slate. The Blue Jays lineup opens in typical form with George Springer, who has 11 home runs and 12 steals and is now creating runs eight percent above average but is still priced at $5,300/$3,400. Bo Bichette and Brandon Belt add some alliteration to our lives in the second and third spots in the lineup. Bichette has 14 home runs with a 141 WRC+ to lead the team, Belt has been more effective for run creation at a 125 WRC+ than power with just four homers and a .162 ISO, but he has a sturdy 10.6% barrel rate and 42.6% hard-hit rate and still costs just $3,000/$2,700 with eligibility in the outfield and at first base on DraftKings in a critical change for his value. Belt needs outfield eligibility because we do not want to skip superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for shares of Belt at first base all that many times in our Blue Jays stacks. Guerrero has 11 home runs while slashing .280/.350/.447 with a 123 WRC+ and a 56.2% hard-hit rate. Matt Chapman continues to crush pitches with regularity, he has an 18.6% barrel rate and 58.8% hard-hit rate to support his 10 home runs and .195 ISO. The production for counting stats and ratios has come down somewhat for Chapman after his absurd start to the season, but the regular contact has not changed, he has upside at $4,900/$3,100 at third base. Daulton Varsho and Whit Merrifield are good options later in the lineup at cheap prices. Merrifield offers moderate power and excellent speed with a nose for getting on base and providing correlated scoring, Varsho has the ability to hit balls over the fence when he is going right, he has a dozen home runs in an up-and-down first three months in Toronto. Danny Jansen and Kevin Kiermaier round out the projected lineup as mix-in options with talent, Jansen is a home run hitter behind the plate and Kiermaier can provide infrequent pop and speed.
Play: Giants bats/stacks, Logan Webb, Blue Jays bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Miami Marlins (-117/4.96) @ Boston Red Sox (+108/4.65)
The Marlins are favored in a game in Boston’s Fenway Park with opener Kaleb Ort slated to work the first inning for the home team before handing off to a true bullpen game. There are no playable Red Sox pitchers on our radar, if they announce a bulk reliever good luck. The Marlins are pulling nearly a 5.0-run total and they added a dynamic star to their lineup with the return of Jazz Chisholm Jr. yesterday. The lineup opens with Luis Arraez who is sitting at a .399 batting average for the season and is still chasing .400 at the halfway point. Arraez has been excellent all season, he has by far the league’s best pure hit tool and reminds us of Ichiro Suzuki with his ability to aim base hits to wherever the defenders aren’t. Arraez has created runs 61% better than average this season and is a terrific correlated scoring option with the rest of the Miami lineup. Jorge Soler has a 9.83 in our home run model that is drawn against Ort, he should be around the magic number regardless of who Boston brings out of the bullpen and, if they mismanage their way into giving him a plate appearance against a lefty it goes up significantly. Soler has 21 home runs and a .275 ISO this season, he is easily worth $4,600/$3,600 in this matchup. Bryan De La Cruz had a big day at the plate on Tuesday and will be looking to continue a good season. Over 313 plate appearances, the outfielder is slashing .282/.329/.436 while creating runs nine percent better than average. Chisholm slots into the cleanup spot for $5,100/$3,200, he has seven home runs and 14 stolen bases on the season with a 99 WRC+. Chisholm went 3-5 with a double, two runs, and three RBIs in his return to action last night, he has significant DFS upside on most slates. Garrett Cooper is the second-best option with the name Garrett tonight, the Marlins’ starter Braxton Garrett is a better play on the mound than he is at the plate, but that is an unfair race. Cooper has nine home runs and a 94 WRC+ in 235 plate appearances and will settle into the back end of the lineup nicely with less pressure to deliver big hits. Jean Segura has been bad through most of the season but can produce in an any-given-slate sense. Jesus Sanchez has been cold since his return from injury but was having a minor breakout before getting hurt, he has good left-handed power for cheap pricing on both sites. Nick Fortes and Joey Wendle are mix-in options late in the lineup.
The Red Sox will be facing Garrett, a high-end southpaw who is in the middle of a nice breakout but may still go undervalued in this spot. Garrett does not project at the top of our board, he is more of a mid-level option in this spot, but his strikeout upside has been undeniable lately and it would not surprise at all to see another strong outing. The lefty has a 28.7% strikeout rate with a 3.64 ERA and a sterling 2.72 xFIP this season. He has induced a 13.3% swinging-strike rate and compiled a 32.3% CSW% for the season and has been showing signs of true dominance on the mound. Garrett is not flawless, he has allowed too much premium contact at 9.2% barrels and a 46.4% hard-hit rate with 91.2 mph of exit velocity that could play to Boston’s power bats, but so far he has limited home runs to just 2.87% in his terrific season. Garrett is an option, particularly if he does not gain popularity around the industry, he costs just $8,700/$9,900 and should be a major piece of value on the DraftKings slate where he is a premium SP2. The Boston lineup is pulling a 4.65-run implied total that sits in the middle of the slate, they tie for ninth by fantasy point projections in our model but are showing bad value scores in a points-per-dollar sense. The projected Red Sox lineup opens with Rob Refsnyder, a journeyman utility player who hits lefties fairly well but not for much power. In 76 plate appearances against lefties this season, Refsnyder has slashed .355/.474/.484 with a .129 ISO and 171 WRC+, he is good at making contact and getting on first base which puts him on a long list of correlated scoring options who need help to fully deliver. Alex Verdugo is a high-quality lefty hitter with a .307/.379/.477 triple-slash and a 134 WRC+, Justin Turner is a right-handed veteran with a good hit tool and power in the third spot, he has 11 home runs and a 120 WRC+ for the season, and Rafael Devers is the team’s power-hitting superstar at third base. Devers has 18 home runs and a .241 ISO but is slashing .241/.311/.483 with a 109 WRC+ which is well down from last year’s elite .295/.358/.521 with a 140 WRC+. Devers is cheap for his ability at $5,200/$3,800, he is a strong buy when rostering stacks of Red Sox in an average matchup. Adam Duvall and Mastaka Yoshida offer talent on either side of the plate later in the lineup, Duvall has right-handed power for days, he has five home runs in 97 plate appearances, while Yoshida has a very high-quality left-handed hit tool and rarely strikes out. Against same-handed pitching this season, Yoshida is slashing .284/.407/.403 with a 130 WRC+ but he loses most of his power at just a .119 ISO. Christian Arroyo, Enrique Hernandez, and Connor Wong round out the projected batting order with Bobby Dalbec once again relegated to AAA and Triston Casas taking a seat against the southpaw.
Play: Braxton Garrett, Marlins bats/stacks, Red Sox bats/stacks in small doses
Update Notes:
Milwaukee Brewers (+128/3.96) @ New York Mets (-139/4.64)
One of the leading pitching spots of the day goes to Mets righty Kodai Senga who is carrying a very strong projection in our pitching model against the flawed Brewers lineup. Senga has a premium 28% strikeout rate over 76.2 innings in 14 starts in his first season in the Show after being an NPB ace for years. The righty has excellent stuff and has been able to induce a 12% swinging-strike rate at the MLB level and he has been good at missing barrels and avoiding home runs at 6.7% and 2.71% respectively. Senga’s primary flaw comes, like Snell, from an extremely elevated walk rate that sits at a whopping 13.3% for the season. Also like Snell, Senga has the talent and the strikeout stuff to punch his way out of most of the jams he finds himself in, he has a 3.52 ERA and 4.05 xFIP on the season and has made several excellent starts with slate-winning scores and hefty strikeout totals. Senga is facing a Brewers lineup that has a collective 24.4% strikeout rate in its projected form, there is a fair amount of upside for the Mets starter in this matchup but he is not likely to be one of the favored options of the DFS-playing public, which only enhances the appeal. The projected Brewers lineup opens with Christian Yelich who has been having a productive season at the plate creating runs 17% better than average with nine homers and 17 stolen bases. Yelich is far removed from his seasons of 30 or more home runs, but there is still power, speed, and tons of talent here for just $4,400/$3,300. If the Brewers are going to ruin Senga’s night, Yelich is almost definitely going to be a part of it, he belongs in most Milwaukee stacks. William Contreras has eight homers with a 107 WRC+ behind the plate, he is a viable option at catcher when going to this team. Rowdy Tellez leads the Brewers lineup with a 12.67 in our home run model, he has 12 long balls on the season and is a major source of power on most nights. Tellez hit 35 home runs last season and costs just $3,700/$2,700 on tonight’s slate. Shortstop Willy Adames hit 31 home runs last year and 25 the season before, he has excellent power for his position but strikes out aggressively at 26.7%. Adames has a 9.02 in our home run model tonight, he is playable but could also feed strikeouts to the Mets starter. Owen Miller has been good from the right side this season but is not a major threat at the plate, he has four home runs and a 99 WRC+, lefty Jesse Winker has been a dead spot in the lineup when he plays at all, he is slashing .194/.305/.240 with only the memory of being a .300 hitter with 24 home runs two years ago. Luis Urias is a good mixer late in the lineup, he plays multiple positions and offers power at cheap prices, Blake Perkins is cheap and never popular, he has quad-A type talent as a former second-round pick, and Joey Wiemer can find counting stats from time to time, he hit his 11th home run of the season last night and has 10 stolen bases.
The Mets are facing lefty Wade Miley, who is at best an innings-eater in the Brewers rotation at this point, though he does not even do that effectively with just 52.2 innings in 10 starts. Miley has a 2.91 ERA and 4.94 xFIP with a 14.8% strikeout rate but just a 5.3% walk rate on the season. The lefty is very unlikely to post a playable DFS score, but he has the knack for keeping opposing run creation in check and rarely gets blown up on the mound. Miley allowed seven earned runs in a start on May 10th, he allowed three earned runs in two other starts, and has been below that mark in every other outing this year. In eight starts last year, Miley did not allow more than three earned runs, which is to say that the Mets are not a high-priority stack for us tonight. Brandon Nimmo leads off, he has 10 home runs after going deep twice last night, and is an ideal leadoff hitter on the left side of the plate for $4,200/$3,100. Starling Marte is up to .257/.311/.336 with four home runs and 21 stolen bases and remains cheap. Francisco Lindor hit his 16th home run as our overall pick last night but he comes back today with just a 5.13 in the home run model against a starter who has allowed just a 2.87% home run rate and only 87.1 mph of exit velocity. Lindor is a star who has been scuffling in his triple-slash but has major power and has been much better in years past, the star shortstop is discounted significantly at $4,400/$3,400. Pete Alonso is cut to just an 8.87 in our home run model but probably has more upside for power than that against Miley. The right-handed first baseman mashes at the plate and has 24 long balls on the season for just $5,000/$4,100 tonight. Tommy Pham has been very good in limited action tonight and has been getting more regular run in recent weeks, he has seven home runs and eight stolen bases in 187 plate appearances. Francisco Alvarez has a dozen home runs, most of which came in a blazing hot May, he has cooled to a .220/.274/.468 triple-slash that feels realistic for a player who was not expected to reach this level this season. Jeff McNeil, Mark Canha, and Danny Mendick round out the lineup as swappable parts.
Play: Kodai Senga enthusiastically, maybe mid-level exposure to Mets bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Houston Astros (+108/4.16) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-117/4.43)
Houston and St. Louis will battle in the heartland once again, with the hometown Cardinals favored slightly on the board in Vegas. Tonight’s pitching matchup sees veteran righty Miles Mikolas take the mound for St. Louis. The soft-tossing righty has a 16.2% strikeout rate with a 6.8% swinging-strike rate on the season, he pitches to contact but typically works deep into games and finds success. Mikolas has a 4.23 ERA but a 4.52 xFIP on the season with a 1.36 WHIP despite walking just 4.7%. He has not allowed much power, opposing hitters manage just a 2.46% home run rate on 7.6% barrels this season despite some elevated exit velocity numbers. Mikolas struck out a few more last year, reaching 19% for the season in his 202.1 innings, but he is priced to the point where we only need clean innings and a quality start. The righty costs $7,200/$7,600 and is on the board as a value option on both sites. The Astros have not been good at the plate for the entire season and they are still without superstar Yordan Alvarez, which weakens them significantly further. Houston’s implied total sits at just 4.16 and they are a low-priority stack for tonight with Mikolas looking like the more interesting side of the equation in limited doses. Houston’s projected lineup opens with star second baseman Jose Altuve, who has three home runs and five steals with a 119 WRC+ in 114 plate appearances. Altuve went 28/18 while creating runs 64% better than average last year, he is easily worth $4,700/$3,200 and could ruin Mikolas’ day early and all by himself. Alex Bregman has 11 homers but has not been fully himself with just a .156 ISO and a weak triple-slash. Bregman is affordable at $4,600/$3,100 at third base, he has a 110 WRC+ on the season and is playable in Astros stacks. Kyle Tucker is cheap at $5,300/$3,400, the outfielder has all-world power and speed and has been a star the last two seasons but has taken a dip this year. If Tucker dipped, Jose Abreu flat-out drowned at the plate. The veteran first baseman is slashing .232/.283/.325 with a .093 ISO and 68 WRC+ with five home runs but he has come on somewhat in the last three weeks. Yainer Diaz, Corey Julks, Jeremy Pena, Jake Meyers, and Martin Maldonado round out the fairly low-end version of the Astros lineup. Diaz has been very good over 139 plate appearances and has won a more regular role as an affordable bat at catcher for DFS purposes. Julks and Meyers are mix-and-match outfielders who can provide good games but have a 91 and 95 WRC+ for the season respectively, and Pena has not been great this season at shortstop.
The Cardinals will be facing Cristian Javier who has had an up-and-down season on the mound. Javier has a 3.25 ERA but a more telling 4.76 xFIP and his strikeouts have fallen way off this season. Last year, the righty had a 33.2% strikeout rate over 148.2 innings and 25 starts, the season before he was at 30.7% in nine starts and 101.1 total innings that included a lot of bullpen work. Javier was an emerging star coming into this season, but his current strikeout rate is just 22.9% and his swinging-strike rate has dipped by more than two percentage points. Javier has allowed more premium contact in the form of barrels this season but his home run rate and hard-hit marks are roughly equivalent to previous seasons, but he has lost more than a mile-per-hour on his fastball and has been unable to compensate when it comes to strikeouts. The lack of pop on the fastball is impacting the rest of Javier’s arsenal, his slider whiff rate has dropped from 39.4% to 30.3% and his other ancillary pitches have also come down while he has also allowed a jump of nearly .100 in slugging percentage on his fastball. His xSLG on the four-seamer has gone from an elite .317 last year to .468 this season. At just $9,700/$9,400, Javier is worth some DFS darts, particularly if he comes in low-owned in a tough matchup, but the upside is in question if his struggles continue on the mound and the play should be made with eyes open to the potential downside at what are still somewhat high prices for the current output. Brendan Donovan should be in the leadoff role for the Cardinals, he has seven home runs and a 111 WRC+ and is an effective option hitting first and correlating with the team’s stars. Paul Goldschmidt has 13 home runs with a 137 WRC+ and a 55.4% hard-hit rate with a 13.5% barrel rate on the season, he is an excellent any day option at first base. Lars Nootbaar costs $4,200/$2,800 in the outfield, the lefty has power and is a good DFS play who may go under the radar tonight. Nootbaar has four home runs and five stolen bases with a 111 WRC+ in 204 plate appearances. Nolan Arenado is tied for the team lead with 15 home runs, he has a 116 WRC+ and a .204 ISO over 321 plate appearances and would look even better if he had done anything in the month of April. Arenado is a star at $5,300/$3,200 at third base. Willson Contreras has not been good this year, he has eight home runs but is slashing .217/.303/.374 and is hearing calls for star prospect catcher Ivan Herrera to take his job. Nolan Gorman rampaged his way to 15 home runs then stopped cold. He is slashing .237/.323/.470 with a 117 WRC+, most of which came before the calendar flipped to June. Gorman has a .233 ISO and massive power on the left side, the early home runs were not a fluke, but he will be a roller coaster hitter with major power like many others across the sport. Gorman is cheap at $4,600/$2,900 and has more upside than teammate Jordan Walker who is slated to hit behind him. Walker has excellent talent as well, he has hit six home runs and is slashing .303/.369/.472 with a .169 ISO and 135 WRC+ over 157 plate appearances after making a trip back to AAA earlier in the year. Paul DeJong and Tommy Edman are easily playable parts in Cardinals stacks, Edman is an ideal wraparound player with mid-level power and good speed in the ninth spot.
Play: Miles Mikolas value, Cristian Javier, either stack as a low-priority mid-level option with the Cards preferred
Update Notes:
Detroit Tigers (+175/4.02) @ Texas Rangers (-192/5.60)
The Tigers and Rangers are in a lopsided matchup in Texas that should strongly favor Rangers bats and starter Dane Dunning. The veteran righty is not a high-level pitcher, but he is no slouch on the mound and has delivered competitive DFS scores at low prices over the last few seasons. Dunning has a 14% strikeout rate and a 4.79 xFIP on the season, it is important to know that we are dealing with low-level performance and focusing on clean innings at a cheap $6,100/$7,500 price against one of baseball’s worst lineups. Dunning has induced an eight percent swinging-strike rate and has pitched to a 2.76 ERA while allowing just a 1.37% home run rate on 89 mph of exit velocity this season, he is effective at keeping the ball in the yard and typically induces a fair number of ground balls while limiting launch angle. Dunning does not have a very high ceiling, but he does not need one at these cheap prices, he is on the pitching value board in this matchup. The Tigers are pulling in just a 4.02-run implied total, they are a very low-priority stack on most slates and any potential for upside will probably be swallowed up by an uptick in popularity in what the public may see as a targetable matchup. Zach McKinstry has a 98 WRC+ as one of the Tigers’ more productive hitters. He has five home runs and 10 stolen bases in the leadoff spot ahead of Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter who offer the idea of power at the plate. Carpenter is a good lefty power hitter who has six home runs on the season with a .215 ISO, he hit six in 113 plate appearances last year with a .233 ISO and had an 11.1% barrel rate in the small sample. Carpenter missed time this year but is cheap and has a 12.4% barrel rate and 43.8% hard-hit rate. Torkelson has hit nine home runs and has positive indicators in his profile, but he still not arrived at the plate, he costs $3,300/$2,600. Javier Baez is barely trying, he has five home runs and a 64 WRC+ in a who cares season that will pay him far too much for his time. Andy Ibanez, Matt Vierling, Miguel Cabrera, Eric Haase, and Zack Short round out the lineup, there are very few playable hitters on this team.
The Rangers have a lineup that is playable from 1-9 almost every night. They will be facing lefty Joey Wentz in his 15th start of the year, at least for a little while. Wentz is likely to get chased early in this one, the Rangers are too good for a pitcher who has a 6.72 ERA and 4.83 xFIP with a 20.1% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate who also allows a 4.62% home run rate and 10.8% barrels. Vegas has the Rangers at a 5.60-run implied total that is one of the highest non-Coors marks on the slate. The team should be exceedingly popular tonight, even with the Dodgers drawing most of the attention in their game in Colorado. Texas seems likely to be the second-most popular lineup on the board, but that will leave numerous options somewhat under-owned for the spot and their talents on a huge slate. While the focus still should remain on the top four spots in any lineup, Texas has terrific depth and players at the bottom of their lineup are far more viable than most mix-in options who hit 7-9. The bottom two hitters in the Rangers’ lineup, Ezequiel Duran and Leody Taveras are creating runs 49% and 26% better than average over 220 and 252 plate appearances, they are very productive hitters who have power and speed and make ideal wraparound plays in limited doses. Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are highly expensive, one needs to opt for late lineup cost savings, such as they are in this lineup, in order to roster both infielders. Semien has created runs 22% better than average, and Seager is a whopping 79% ahead of the curve, both players are stars at their positions. Josh Jung got a day off on Tuesday but should return to hit third against the southpaw. Jung has 15 home runs on the season with a .208 ISO and 122 WRC+ and has been turning into a star at third base. He costs just $4,700/$3,300 in the enhanced spot in the lineup and has major upside tonight. Adolis Garcia is the team’s star outfielder, he has 19 home runs and a .242 ISO with a 15.7% barrel rate and 51.4% hard hits this year. Garcia is cheap at $5,400/$3,900, his production compares favorably to outfield stars at higher prices in worse situations tonight. Nathaniel Lowe is another good price offset who correlates well with the team’s stars. Lowe has power and a good hit tool, he hit 27 homers while slashing .302/.358/.492 last year and sits at .280/.374/.433 with eight home runs this year. Jonah Heim and Mitch Garver can be played separately or together for MLB DFS purposes when both catchers are in the lineup, they both have double-digit home run potential and cheap price tags for their ceilings.
Play: Rangers bats/stacks, Dane Dunning value
Update Notes:
Philadelphia Phillies (-125/4.25) @ Chicago Cubs (+116/3.84)
Veteran starters Drew Smyly and Aaron Nola will not benefit from having the wind at their backs at Wrigley Field tonight, with a slight breeze blowing out toward left field. The hometown lefty, Smyly, has been effective this season, he has a 3.38 ERA but a 4.77 xFIP that is probably more truthful. Smyly has struck out 19.9% while walking 7.5% and allowing a 6.4% barrel rate with 32.5% hard hits and 87 mph of exit velocity. The lefty has been a similar pitcher throughout his career, he had a 4.18 xFIP and 3.47 ERA with a 20.4% strikeout rate over 106.1 innings and 22 starts last year and similarly middling numbers the season before. Smyly is not a standout but he is a roughly league-average pitcher for $7,400/$8,600. The lefty’s path to success against the Phillies is fairly thin in this spot for DFS purposes, he is too expensive for his projection on the blue site and only barely scrapes the value board on the DraftKings slate where there are cheaper SP2 options that look better. Kyle Schwarber looms atop the projected Phillies lineup with a 15.53 in our home run model that is not intimidated by a same-handed pitching matchup. Schwarber costs $5,200/$3,600 as an affordable piece for power and seems likely to see a righty out of the bullpen at some point. Trea Turner has eight home runs with 15 stolen bases and has been scuffling to an 85 WRC+, it would be fair to say that his $5,600/$3,600 is too high for his current production, but the sites know Turner is a star who will turn eventually this season. Nick Castellanos is also not priced for his current production, but in the reverse. Castellanos has been excellent this year but he costs just $4,300/$3,400 in the outfield despite a 127 WRC+, nine home runs, a .312/.358/.487 and a hot month of June. Bryce Harper has a 111 WRC+ but just a .110 ISO since his return, his power output is something to watch going forward, he may not be all the way back from his major surgery in terms of his home run hitting, but there are still gobs of talent available in the player. JT Realmuto is a high-end option at catcher, he still offers power and speed at the plate and comes at a fair price as a positional leader. Alec Bohm, Josh Harrison, Edmundo Sosa, and Christian Pache round out the projected lineup against the lefty with players like Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, and Kody Clemens potentially taking a seat for platoon purposes.
The Cubs are facing Phillies ace Aaron Nola who has had a rocky season. Nola is one of a long list of struggling veterans who were formerly paragons of reliability. The righty has a 4.38 ERA and 3.94 xFIP with a 24.3% strikeout rate over 100.2 innings in 16 starts this season, all of which are not bad numbers but pale in comparison to the 3.25 ERA, 2.77 xFIP, and 29.1% strikeout rate he posted over 205 innings in 32 starts just last season. Nola has seen a dip in his swinging-strike rate and his CSW has plummeted from 32.4% to 29.7% while he has allowed a bit more premium contact and power, his 3.72% home run rate is up by a point-and-a-half over last year. The righty is priced down on the blue site at $9,600 but remains a fairly high-cost item at $10,400 on DraftKings. Nola is a pitcher we wholeheartedly believe will figure things out this season, he has had bright spots and has not been nearly as bad as some of his counterparts around the league. The righty is facing a good Cubs lineup that is not lousy for strikeouts and can get on base and hit for power, but he has a good ceiling and will probably be under-owned for his talent on a deep slate. Nola projects in the upper-middle of our board where he might get lost in the shuffle, booking a few shares beyond the field, assuming low popularity, seems like a good plan. The Cubs are playable but low-priority as a stack against Nola, they have an unappealing 3.84-run total that shows Vegas still believes in the Philadelphia righty as well. Mike Tauchman has a pair of home runs and three steals with a .392 on-base percentage, he is cheap as a leadoff hitter if rostering Cubs bats. Nico Hoerner drops to second against the righty, he has five homers and 17 stolen bases and gets on at a .328 clip, he would have 30 stolen bases if he had Tauchman’s on-base percentage. Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ are good outfielders who have productive bats but they are miscast as team-leaders, they are more inclined to supporting roles in a lineup. Suzuki has a .338 on-base percentage with a 102 WRC+ and six home runs, Happ has seven homers with six stolen bases and a .389 on-base. Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger offer veteran power at fair prices late in the lineup, Swanson also has speed at shortstop for $4,500/$3,000. Bellinger has seven home runs and 10 stolen bases in 195 plate appearances after a hot start that was followed by an injury, it will be interesting to see how he performs the rest of the year and what team he ends the season on after the Cubs definitely trade him at the deadline. Christopher Morel has 13 home runs in 146 stunning plate appearances, although all of the home runs and most of the stunning part came in the first 50 or so plate appearances. Nick Madrigal and Tucker Barnhart are late-lineup mixers.
Play: Aaron Nola, Phillies bats/stacks in mid-level exposures
Update Notes:
Cleveland Guardians (-124/5.03) @ Kansas City Royals (+114/4.58)
The Guardians’ lousy lineup failed to come through in what many perceived as a good spot once again last night, this is just a bad team and they are not reliable even when they have a fairly high run total on the board. Cleveland is slated to face lefty Austin Cox tonight which has them at a 5.03-run implied total on the board in Vegas but does not push strong projections in their direction. Cox should be expected to work three or four innings, five seems like a stretch. The lefty has worked in a long relief role in the bullpen and made eight starts in AAA this season, he is not fully stretched out but he is also not a pure opener, which puts him in an odd spot at $5,100 on DraftKings. Cox does not seem like a good FanDuel option, but his 31% strikeout rate over 12.1 innings of elite bullpen work makes him at least attention-getting on the two-starter site at his price. Cox has not allowed an earned run in his 12.1 innings of work at the MLB level, his 3.68 xFIP is more telling but he has a dominant 15.6% swinging-strike rate and 31.3% CSW% in the tiny sample. Cleveland’s lineup is a low-priority play they project near the bottom of our stacks board with their season-long lack of quality. Steven Kwan is not a high-end DFS option for anything but correlation and stolen bases when he is going right, he has been going wrong all year. Amed Rosario has one home run and eight stolen bases in 310 plate appearances and may need a different spot in the lineup. Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the only two productive bats for Cleveland this season, they have combined for 22 home runs, or two less than Pete Alonso has hit on his own, and they have WRC+ marks of 132 and 114 respectively. Ramirez costs $5,100/$3,900 and Naylor lands at $3,900/$3,300, they both belong in most stacks of Cleveland hitters tonight. Josh Bell, Andres Gimenez, Gabriel Arias, Myles Straw, and Cam Gallagher close out the lineup in low-end fashion. Bell is by far the most talented in the group, he should be a better option than he has been at the plate this year, he hit 17 home runs last year and 27 two seasons ago but has looked mostly lost in reaching just seven so far this season while slashing .227/.320/.372 with a 94 WRC+. Still, he is probably the third-best option for stacking on this team, which says a lot.
The Guardians have another good young pitcher facing the lousy Royals lineup after rookie Gavin Williams had a terrific start against them last night. Tonight’s pitcher has a bit longer of a track record at the MLB level, lefty Logan Allen has made 11 starts and has a 22.5% strikeout rate with a 3.68 ERA and 4.12 xFIP in 58.2 innings. The southpaw has a 1.45 WHIP that could be substantially lower, his swinging-strike rate is an excellent 12.2% however, and he has not allowed much premium contact or home run power at just 2.33% long balls and an 88.6 mph exit velocity. Allen projects well in our pitching model for just $8,000/$8,400, he is a very good SP2 option on the DraftKings slate and could be a good value play on the blue site as well. The lone concern with rostering Allen on the FanDuel slate is his short outings in two straight starts. He gave up five earned runs in three innings while striking out just two and walking four against the Padres in a forgivable short start on the 15th but then only lasted four innings against the Athletics in his most recent start. That outing was a good one, Allen struck out five and shut out Oakland with just two hits in the short start but he walked three and threw 89 pitches in just four innings. Assuming a return to form and more efficient pitching, the lefty should reach at least the win bonus level, and he had pitched into the sixth or seventh inning in five straight outings prior to the two recent blips, there is upside here tonight. The Royals did not have Sal Perez in the lineup last night but the team’s star is projected to return tonight, he has massive power but strikes out at a 23.6% clip which is on theme for this team. Maikel Garcia is projected to lead off against the lefty, he has a 21.9% strikeout rate and a .273/.328/.376 triple-slash as a non-threatening hitter, though he does have a good 49.2% hard-hit rate. Bobby Witt Jr. has both power and speed but sits at a 90 WRC+ because he does not take walks or get on base reliably. Witt has a 5.6% walk rate and .287 on-base that hamper the upside in his 12 home runs and 23 stolen bases, but the counting stats are strong for MLB DFS purposes. Perez slots in third, he has 15 home runs and a .212 ISO and is always an option at catcher, particularly against a lefty who works in the mid-to-low 90s. MJ Melendez has light tower power that is rarely impactful statistically, he hits everything hard but has just six home runs and a .211/.396/.340 triple-slash with a 75 WRC+. Edward Olivares is a moderately talented power/speed outfielder who costs $2,700/$2,500 with six homers and eight steals, he is also the best option in the lineup for limiting strikeouts at 16.4% for the season. Matt Duffy, Samad Taylor, Drew Waters, and Dairon Blanco are very low-end options for DFS lineups.
Play: Logan Allen
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-204/7.46) @ Colorado Rockies (+185/5.20)
This is a Coors Field game featuring the Dodgers’ ridiculously talented lineup with more than a touchdown in the run column in Vegas again, in the interest of time we are just going to say that the Dodgers will be explosively popular for good reasons against Kyle Freeland, who is not playable. Los Angeles is by far our top-projected team stack today, they are playable from 1-9 in any form of the lineup, with priority bats at the top in Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, JD Martinez, and Max Muncy, and excellent mix-in options including Jonny DeLuca, Miguel Vargas, James Outman, David Peralta, Jason Heyward, and lower-end Miguel Vargas. Several of the lefties will take a seat against Freeland, but everyone who wears a Dodgers jersey on the field tonight is in play. Freeland has a 14.6% strikeout rate with a 4.54 ERA and 4.95 xFIP to go with a 3.87% home run rate that screams “hit me hard.” Regardless of popularity, the Dodgers are a priority stacking option tonight, they should be owned near the field’s level of exposure, undercuts are a viable approach but they are not a full fade by any stretch of the imagination.
The Dodgers have Michael Grove on the mound in a bad spot. The righty has a 7.59 ERA and 4.25 xFIP in his 32 innings and six starts and has struck out an average 21.7% this season, he is not a good option at Coors Field even at $5,300/$5,800, the Rockies are drawing a 5.20-run implied total that puts them higher on the board tonight. Jurickson Profar and Ezequiel Tovar have been bad, they have WRC+ marks of 74 and 79 this season but have a chance to get on base and provide correlated scoring against a low-end starter. Ryan McMahon has an 8.54 in our home run model with 12 in the books this season, he has a much better projection against the limited righty today than he showed against Clayton Kershaw in a same-handed matchup last night. CJ Cron has an 11.69 in our home run model, he has titanic power when healthy and has six home runs in 151 plate appearances from before his injury, Cron just returned to the lineup last night and is cheap at $4,600/$3,200 as a sneaky first base option. Nolan Jones has been raking this season at the MLB level, he has a .316/.396/.551 triple-slash with five home runs in 111 plate appearances since his promotion and makes for a good option at $4,400/$3,900 in the outfield with first base added on the blue site. Elias Diaz is a productive and cheap catcher in a Coors Field game, he makes a lot of sense at $4,400/$3,300 when rostering Rockies. Harold Castro, Elehuris Montero, and Brenton Doyle have quality late in the lineup with a blend of power and speed for fair prices and a lack of popularity on most nights.
Play: bats bats bats
Update Notes:
Chicago White Sox (+109/4.15) @ Los Angeles Angels (-118/4.44)
Righty Jaime Barria checks in at a $6,800/$6,400 price tag against the under-performing White Sox this evening in an interesting matchup. Barria has a 2.14 ERA and 4.19 xFIP in four starts and 46.1 innings with a 21.5% strikeout rate this season while pitching as a true starter and as a bulk reliever. Barria has the Chicago lineup relegated to just a 4.15-run total on the board in Vegas, but he is not pulling a strong individual projection with a question on his depth of innings and his strikeout upside. Barria is affordable and is potentially a low-priority SP2 option on DraftKings but the path to success is thin on that site and invisible on the FanDuel slate. The White Sox seem like a better option than their implied team total would suggest, but Barria is not lousy for power, he has allowed just a 6.9% barrel rate with a fantastic 28.5% hard-hit rate and just 85.1 mph of exit velocity this season. While the pitcher is not a standout and does not seem likely to bend the DFS slate, he is somewhat likely to limit the White Sox output tonight, which had them as just a low-priority stack. Those going to Chicago bats should focus at the top of the lineup as usual, though Andrew Benintendi and Tim Anderson have been a big part of the problem in Chicago this year at just 97 and 50 WRC+ in 310 and 237 plate appearances. Anderson has been particularly disappointing at .232/.270/.272 with a .040 ISO and 50 WRC+, he may have caught the same condition that impacted Jose Abreu on his way out of town. Luis Robert Jr. is a star outfielder with 22 home runs, a .293 ISO, and a 140 WRC+ in 323 plate appearances in a big breakout season. Eloy Jimenez has all-world power as well, he has nine home runs and a .200 ISO but has missed too many games once again this year. Andrew Vaughn connects for power somewhat regularly, he has a dozen home runs and a 48.3% hard-hit rate on the season and hits ahead of catcher Yasmani Grandal who has half as many home runs in his 232 plate appearances and has not gotten on base as often as he used to but can still provide some value as a cheap low-owned catcher. Jake Burger has 17 home runs on the season and a 9.69 in our model against Barria despite his talent for sapping power, Burger is one of the better options late in the White Sox lineup, but he is a quad-A talent overall. Gavin Sheets and Elvis Andrus round things out, one of those options is playable, and the other shares his name with a famous mutton-chop aficionado of a rock star.
The Angels star-laden lineup faces Lucas Giolito, a highly capable righty who has been mostly on form this season. Giolito has a 25.6% strikeout rate with a 3.41 ERA and 4.29 xFIP in 92.1 innings this year after putting up a 25.4% strikeout rate with a 4.90 ERA and 3.66 xFIP in 161.2 innings over 30 starts last season. Giolito has settled into this level of production and thoughts of him as a super-apex predator on the mound should probably be dashed at this point, he is a good-not-great right-handed talent on the mound overall. At $9,300/$9,800 Giolito projects as a mid-level priority who has more value on DraftKings than FanDuel. He lands in the middle of the pitching board and will be facing several deadly-good power hitters but he also has a bit of strikeout upside against an Angels lineup that projects with a 24.3% strikeout rate from top to bottom. The projected lineup opens with productive Mickey Moniak who was drafted first overall in his year and has come on like wild at the plate in 106 opportunities in Los Angeles this year. Moniak has a great baseball name to go with his .3117/.349/.653 triple-slash, seven home runs, and 172 WRC+ in the small sample, he is cheap at $4,200/$2,700 and is a great option ahead of the team’s stars. Mike Trout slots in second, he has 17 home runs with a .228 ISO and 133 WRC+ but is now the second-best player on his own team behind ridiculous two-way talent Shohei Ohtani. After a 10-strikeout performance on the mound that also saw him hit two home runs at the plate last night while reaching base four times, a feat that had not been accomplished in MLB since the late 1800s, Ohtani returns to DFS lineups at $6,500/$4,400 and is well worth the investment. Ohtani leads baseball with 28 home runs and has a .350 ISO while creating runs 80% better than average as one of the best starting pitchers in the game. Brandon Drury, Taylor Ward, and Hunter Renfroe have big right-handed power to throw at Giolito, catcher Matt Thaiss is a good lefty bat that will break that group up somewhere in the middle to vary the lineup. Thaiss has four home runs and a 10.1% barrel rate in his 167 plate appearances this season. Drury has 13 home runs, Ward has nine, and Renfroe has 12 this season. Eduardo Escobar lands at the bottom of the lineup at $2,700/$2,500 and offers eligibility at second and third base on DraftKings. The switch-hitter blasted 20 home runs just last year and 28 the year before, he is not done at the plate and will be very low-owned. David Fletcher is not much of a DFS option.
Play: Angels bats/stacks in mid-level doses, Lucas Giolito as a low-priority starter, Jaime Barria value on DK as an SP2 in small portions
Update Notes:
New York Yankees (-144/4.13) @ Oakland Athletics (+132/3.46)
Two starters with something of a lack of name recognition are in interesting spots in the game in Oakland tonight. Athletics lefty JP Sears has made several good starts for DFS purposes this season and is facing a limited version of the Yankees lineup that has been baseball’s worst for run creation this season. New York’s projected batting order is an even lesser form of the lineup we saw fall well short just last night, it includes both Oswaldo Cabrera and Isiah Kiner-Falefa which should help the upside for the left-handed Sears. At $7,100/$8,200, there is definitely potential for a good value-priced start on both sites. Sears has a 23.9% strikeout rate with a 4.10 ERA and 4.76 xFIP on the season, his one problem has been premium contact. The inflated 12.6% barrel rate and 5.37% home run rate that Sears has allowed are concerning against a lineup that still features Giancarlo Stanton, but the Yankees power has been mostly out recently and a lone solo homer will not be overly damaging, it is the big inning that Sears needs to avoid overall. The lefty could pay off his cheap salary against this bad lineup tonight, the Yankees have a 4.13-run implied total for a reason. Gleyber Torres should return to the top spot in the lineup, he has had a bad June but has a dozen home runs on the season. Harrison Bader is a productive outfielder with double-digit power and stolen base acumen, he costs $3,600/$3,100 and would be involved in anything the Yankees manage tonight. Stanton has been way off timing-wise at the plate but costs just $4,400/$2,800 against a lefty who is allowing a massive amount of contact, he has an 11.29 in our home run model and belongs in most stacks of Yankees hitters. Josh Donaldson hit his seventh home run in just 75 plate appearances but that is about all he does at the plate, he has a 6.04 in our model and a decent shot at a long ball against Sears’ contact profile for $3,200/$2,700. DJ LeMahieu plays multiple positions at cheap prices on both sites but has not been good at all this year with an 84 WRC+ and a lowly .227/.286/.382 triple-slash that are nowhere near the production the Yankees paid him for two years ago. Kiner-Falerfa and Cabrera are below replacement-level hitters, Anthony Volpe has 10 homers and 15 stolen bases and has pulled himself above the Mendoza line at .203 but still sits at 81 WRC+. Kyle Higashioka makes sturdy contact but has just three home runs, he is an option for a late lineup long ball at zero ownership in Yankees stacks tonight.
Domingo German is on the mound for New York in one of baseball’s best matchups, the Athletics have largely been a pushover for pitchers this season outside of a few outbursts. German has a 13.5% swinging-strike rate and 29.5% CSW% which are excellent marks for strike-throwing, but that has amounted to just a 22.6% strikeout rate overall. The righty has a 5.10 ERA and 4.38 xFIP with a 10.2% barrel rate and 4.92% home run rate allowed, he and Sears look a lot alike apart from throwing with different hands and looking entirely different in their physical forms. German is an option at $8,000/$7,700, warts and all. There is a potential ceiling for a strong strike-thrower against the Athletics, but he will have to avoid the mistakes that have led to fat pitches that provide premium contact opportunities to opposing hitters. The Athletics are low-end but playable in small doses, particularly the power-hitting lefties and Brent Rooker, who has a 10.63 in our home run model to lead the team. Tony Kemp and Ryan Noda lead the way for Oakland, Kemp has three home runs and four steals but sits at .182/.287/.265 and is a weird choice to lead off. Noda has a .387 on-base percentage with eight home runs and a 135 WRC+ as the team’s best player this season but he strikes out at a 33% clip that will support German’s upside. JJ Bleday and Seth Brown have left-handed power in the third and fourth spots in the projected lineup. The lefties cost $2,100/$2,700 and $2,700/$2,400 and are easy clicks when rostering Athletics. Bleday has five home runs in 140 opportunities, Brown has six in 143 but neither has hit for average this season and both are unreliable overall. Rooker has 13 home runs on the season and costs just $3,200/$2,800, which is about right for his true talent. Jace Peterson, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Wade, and Esteury Ruiz round out the lineup. Langeliers has power as a low-owned low-level catcher, Wade and Ruiz have speed and cheap prices, and Ruiz stole his 40th base of the year last night, they are decent mix-in options if one gets carried away stacking Athletics.
Play: JP Sears value, Domingo German value
Update Notes:
Tampa Bay Rays (-150/5.28) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+138/4.33)
The final game of the slate has the world-beating Rays at a 5.28-run implied total against non-option Zach Davies, a veteran righty who has a 7.82 ERA and 4.97 xFIP with a 17.6% strikeout rate this season. Davies has not been lousy for power at 1.76% home runs, but his 91 mph of exit velocity and 41% hard-hit rate suggest that even that is a bit of luck in his 35.2 innings and eight starts. The Rays lineup takes many forms, in whatever form it appears tonight it can be played from 1-9 against this starter. Yandy Diaz is slated to lead off, he has a 55.9% hard-hit rate and 15.2% strikeout rate and strikes the ball with authority regularly. Diaz has a dozen home runs on the season and has created runs 63% better than average this season. Wander Franco has nine home runs and 25 stolen bases and costs just $5,700/$3,700 as a star shortstop. Luke Raley slots in third with 12 home runs and eight stolen bases while creating runs 55% better than average over his 202 plate appearances in a big breakout. Raley has a 19% barrel rate and 49.1% hard-hit rate and costs just $4,400/$3,000 in the outfield, his 11.18 in the home run model leads the Rays tonight. Randy Arozarena has a 9.88 in the home run model and 14 in the books for the season, he is a toolsy star who has created runs 55% better than average this season playing everyday in the heart of the batting order. Josh Lowe has a good left-handed bat and he should return to the lineup after a night off. Lowe has 11 home runs and 18 stolen bases while slashing .284/.328/.502 with a 133 WRC+. Taylor Walls has seven home runs and 16 steals and slots into multiple positions at a cheap price on both sites. Walls’ triple-slash came back to Earth in a hurry, but he has upside for power and speed as well as correlated scoring. Jose Siri has been excellent in his opportunities this year, he has 15 home runs and seven stolen bases in just 181 plate appearances after spending the last few seasons as an “interesting option for power and speed if he plays” for DFS purposes. Francisco Mejia and Vidal Brujan close out the lineup as mix-in options.
The Diamondbacks will have to get through quality righty Zach Eflin tonight, which has them limited to just a 4.33-run implied total on the board in Vegas, but may not put Eflin at the center of our pitching plans given his $10,900/$10,500 pricing. Eflin projects well and has been pitching very well this year, he has a 25.6% strikeout rate with a 3.35 ERA and 3.14 xFIP while walking just 4.6%. The righty has not allowed much power with a 3.05% home run rate coming on just 87.4 mph of exit velocity, but the limiting factor is the Diamondbacks’ low strikeout rates up and down the lineup. Eflin will have to have a very strong start to pay off his salary on this slate, he has the requisite talent to get there, but there are other options at similar or lower prices that have more visible paths to success. The righty is in play, but the field’s ownership will dictate our position on the pitcher tonight. Arizona’s lineup is not a priority in the matchup against Eflin. Leadoff hitter Geraldo Perdomo is cheap at $4,200/$2,800 with a .396 on-base percentage that helps him correlate with options like Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll in the next two spots in the batting order. Marte has 15 home runs on the season with a .232 ISO and seems to hit one over the fence every day in recent weeks. Carroll is a star outfielder who has created runs 50% better than average while hitting 17 homers and stealing 23 bases in 317 opportunities as a standout rookie. Christian Walker has major power at the plate and a team-leading 8.77 in our home run model. The first baseman has 16 long balls this season and is quietly effective at $4,700/$3,300, but the matchup is not great. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is good for both average and power, he has a 113 WRC+ and 11 home runs on the season. Emmanuel Rivera has been productive over 148 opportunities and remains cheap at $2,800/$2,600 at third base despite a .314/.338/.407 triple slash and 101 WRC+. Alek Thomas, Carson Kelly, and Jake McCarthy are good mix-ins from late in the lineup, McCarthy has been showing off his blazing speed regularly since returning from the minors and now has 17 stolen bases in 176 plate appearances.
Play: Rays bats/stacks aggressively, Zach Eflin in moderate shares
Update Notes:
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