A five-game Fourth of July main slate gets underway a bit early with a 6:40 ET start on both DraftKings and FanDuel. For having just 10 teams from which to draw pitchers, this is a slate that looks fairly deep on the mound and somewhat limited at the plate. Only the Dodgers are drawing an implied run total above 5.0 in the late game, and several teams are limited to high threes and low fours. With an obvious lean toward pitching it makes sense to spread out shares among the top starters while occupying a few under-owned positions at the plate, even at the expense of rostering players against good starters, which is a necessary move on a slate of this nature. Getting to a broad spread at the plate with a blend of the best for-price starters that work in combination is the right approach, many of the pitching options project similarly well, so there is an ability to play the price and popularity game when selecting combinations and options on the mound.
Don’t miss our new Stack Suggestions feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
Join us at 4:00 pm ET for the MLB DFS Lineup Card Show and a full game-by-game breakdown:
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 7/4/23
Oakland Athletics (+151/3.77) @ Detroit Tigers (-165/4.83)
The first game of the evening is a battle between a pair of quality lefties against terrible teams. The hometown Tigers will have Tarik Skubal on the mound for the first time since last Summer. Skubal is back after recovering from flexor tendon surgery, he has made several rehab appearances and worked his way to more than 60 pitches in his most recent outing. The talented lefty should be expected to throw around 85 pitches today, which could easily be enough to get him through five innings against the Athletics if he is in peak form. When we last saw him, Skubal had a 24.5% strikeout rate with a 3.52 ERA and 3.40 xFIP while limiting home runs to just 1.89% on 5.5% barrels in 117.2 innings and 21 starts last year. The lefty posted a 25.9% strikeout rate with a 4.34 ERA and 4.06 xFIP but was targetable for home runs in 2021, allowing a 5.52% home run rate on 13.9% barrels. If that version of Skubal shows up this will be a short outing for him. At $7,200/$7,600, Skubal looks like an easily playable part, even with a five-inning projection he should have an upside for both strikeouts and clean innings against the lousy Athletics. Oakland’s active roster has a collective 84 WRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, the 28th-ranked team out of 30. Their 22.3% strikeout rate and .119 ISO in the split are also non-threatening. On a small slate, with the idea of getting to the Detroit bullpen early, and the blow-up potential of the 2021 version of Skubal landing on the mound, the Athletics can be played in this spot in small doses. Esteury Ruiz is in the leadoff spot in the projected lineup, he has 42 stolen bases and will be looking for more if he can reach first base. Jordan Diaz slots in second, he costs just $2,100/$2,000 as a second baseman on DraftKings and at third base on FanDuel. Diaz has made 79 plate appearances and is slashing .227/.266/.400 with four home runs in the books and a 45.6% hard-hit rate. Carlos Perez is cheap with catcher and first base eligibility on the DraftKings slate for $2,300, he is exclusively a catcher on the blue site. Perez has five home runs and a .152 ISO on the season, just two of the home runs came against lefties and he has a mediocre .156 ISO in the split. Brent Rooker still has a healthy .271 ISO with a 162 WRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, with five of his 14 home runs in the split, he also walks at a 15.3% clip against southpaws. Rooker has hit five home runs in May, June, and the beginning of July combined after hitting nine in April, he is a low-end option with clear raw power who can change a slate but rarely does. For $3,100/$2,800, Rooker is very cheap in the outfield for someone with a 13.70 in our home run model. JJ Bleday has a .053 ISO against left-handed pitching; Aledmys Diaz is a good bat as a cheap utility man but not much more, he has not been good in 208 plate appearances this season; and Shea Langeliers offers infrequent power as an alternative at catcher for a cheap price. Jace Peterson and Tony Kemp are a weak pair of veteran lefties who drop to the bottom of the lineup against a southpaw.
Oakland will answer the Tigers with a lefty of their own in JP Sears, who projects well in our pitching model today for just $5,600/$8,200. Sears has a 23.9% strikeout rate for the season but has had issues with home runs, allowing a 13.2% barrel rate and a 5.34% home run rate. Even with the power problems, Sears has pitched to a 4.43 ERA and 4.84 xFIP in his 16 starts. This is obviously not a premium pitcher, but if he can manage to avoid the loud mistakes, Sears has the potential to get through one of the worst lineups in baseball two or three times while finding some bonus strikeouts. The win and quality start bonuses are another matter, but in terms of raw upside, Sears is certainly on the board, particularly at the extremely low DraftKings price. He will be facing a Tigers team that has a collective 103 WRC+ against lefties with a .180 ISO and 21% strikeout rate, Detroit is better on this side of splits so he will have work to do, but they are not a good team overall. Matt Vierling leads off the projected Tigers lineup, he is slashing .275/.336/.427 with seven home runs and four stolen bases while creating runs 14% better than average in his 238 plate appearances. Vierling has not been good against lefties this season, his WRC+ sits at just 80 and he has a .091 ISO while slashing .227/.311/.318 in the split. Spencer Torkelson is up to 12 home runs and a .176 ISO with a 99 WRC+ over 349 plate appearances, as we have featured several times he has been showing significant signs of life at the plate in recent weeks and really seems to be finding himself at the plate. Torkelson has an 11.8% barrel rate and 48.5% hard-hit rate with a 10.3% walk rate on the season and is easily affordable at $4,100/$3,100 at first base on both sites. Andy Ibanez typically hits high in the lineup against a lefty, he has six home runs in 181 plate appearances this season overall, three of them and a .255/.271/.574 triple-slash with a monster .319 ISO and a 126 WRC+ have come in his 48 plate appearances against lefties. For his career, the 30-year-old is slashing .291/.317/.478 with a .187 ISO and 117 WRC+ against lefties, which is still good while being far more realistic as far as expectation-setting. Ibanez costs just $3,400/$2,500 with eligibility at second base and in the outfield on DraftKings and at three positions including those two and third base on FanDuel. Javier Baez has a .223/.258/.331 triple-slash with a 61 WRC+ overall this season, he costs $4,300/$2,600 at shortstop and could be cheaper. Baez has a 70 WRC+ and a .129 ISO against lefties in 77 plate appearances this season. Jake Rogers is a cheap catcher at $4,300/$2,600, he has 11 home runs in 172 plate appearances and leads the team with a 193 WRC+ in his 52 opportunities on this side of splits. Rogers has a ridiculous .511 ISO and seven of his home runs in the small sample against southpaws. Veteran Miguel Cabrera, Tyler Nevin, Zack Short, and Jake Marisnick close out the projected lineup, they have WRC+ marks of 82, 13, 84, and 68 this season. Nevin’s low WRC+ is forgivable, he has made just 53 plate appearances and Marisnick has seen just 67 opportunities. Cabrera has just been bad in his final season but he has managed a .308/.391/.385 triple-slash and a 122 WRC+ in 46 chances against lefties. His ISO sits at a lowly .077 in the split. Short has a 106 WRC+ against lefties and is playable as a mix-in piece from the bottom of the lineup, he gains value if he hits higher in the actual batting order.
Play: Tarik Skubal value, JP Sears value, Tigers bats/stacks, minor shares of Athletics bats
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Angels (+117/3.59) @ San Diego Padres (-127/4.00)
The Angels and Padres square off in a late afternoon game in San Diego with a 3:40 local time start. The Angels are going to be without Mike Trout and superstar Shohei Ohtani is on the mound, meaning we will not have him available at the plate for MLB DFS lineups tonight. Losing the two stars is a major blow to the potential for stacking Angels, the team is not off the board entirely but the vastly more limited version of the lineup is also facing talented righty Joe Musgrove, which further reduces their chances for success. Musgrove has a 3.80 ERA and 4.02 xFIP with a 21.7% strikeout rate in his 66.1 innings and 12 outings, he has been far from elite on the mound but he has not been bad. The righty has held opposing hitters to just a 2.49% home run rate on a fantastic 30% hard-hit rate with just five percent barrels this season, a talent he has demonstrated over time. The only dip for the starter is in his strikeout output, which has been in the 5-7 range in recent games with a blip with just one strikeout against the Rays three starts ago. Musgrove is a talented pitcher who has the Angels capped at just a 3.59-run implied team total, he is in play against the Halos for $8,000/$9,100, the DraftKings price is notably low for a pitcher of Musgrove’s quality. The Angels’ projected lineup opens with lefty Mickey Moniak who has been very good in his limited sample of 119 plate appearances. Moniak is a former first-overall pick, he is a toolsy player who works well for DFS purposes and he has delivered nine home runs in the tiny sample while slashing .307/.336/.658 with a .351 ISO and 168 WRC+. Righty Taylor Ward slots in second, he has a .138 ISO and 92 WRC+ this year but was at .192 and 37% better than average for run creation last year. Ward is cheap at $4,400/$2,700 in the outfield, he is an easily playable part in an odd situation in the Los Angeles batting order. Ohtani slots in third, it is important to remember that he will be in the lineup in real life, just not for our purposes. He is a threat to both drive the offense and drain many of the Angels MLB DFS points at the plate which somewhat limits the ceiling of options like Anthony Rendon and Mike Moustakas behind him in the lineup. The pair of veterans are affordable, Moustakas has been better than expected so far this season while Rendon is a good option for getting on base and providing correlated scoring. Hunter Renfroe is a big-time power hitter, he has 14 home runs on the season with an 8.88 in our home run model tonight to lead the available players in this lineup. Matt Thaiss, Eduardo Escobar, and David Fletcher round out the lineup. Thaiss and Escobar both have power for cheap prices, Escobar for $3,100 with two-position eligibility on DraftKings could be an important piece in stacks of Angels, but Fletcher is a non-entity for DFS purposes on most nights.
With Ohtani on the mound, the Padres top-heavy lineup is more of a question mark than on most nights, although Juan Soto might say otherwise. After specifically calling out Ohtani in the media for this start we are in for some fascinating matchups between the two superstars. Ohtani has been one of the best starters in the game with a 33.2% strikeout rate in 95.1 innings. He has walked too many at 10.2% so far this season but it has rarely cost him in big ways, he has a 3.02 ERA and 3.41 xFIP with a 3.13% home run rate on just 34.6% hard hits and 86 mph of exit velocity. All while leading the league in home runs and carrying a 182 WRC+ at the plate. Ohtani is simply astounding to watch, if you have no plans this evening the Ohtan vs Soto plate appearances should be appointment viewing. Ha-Seong Kim comes first in the Padres lineup, he is a playable part and is up to 10 home runs and 13 stolen bases in a nice uptick in output that is already at the levels he put up last year. Kim is an underrated component of this lineup, particularly in the leadoff role. Soto is slated to hit second, he is slashing .277/.426/.500 with a .223 ISO and 156 WRC+ with 15 home runs on the board. Soto is one of the best pure hitters in baseball, he has a 20.6% walk rate this season and is always involved in the team’s offense. Somehow the star outfielder costs just $5,200/$3,700 tonight. Fernando Tatis Jr. lands third in the projected lineup ahead of Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts in what is supposed to be an embarrassment of riches for San Diego. Tatis has been a star worth his $6,200/$4,100 this season, he has 16 home runs and 14 stolen bases. Machado and Bogaerts have also earned their current salaries at the plate this season, because they both come at significant discounts for their underperformance. Machado has a 90 WRC+ in 297 plate appearances but has hit 11 home runs, Bogaerts is at a 109 WRC+ but has been mostly without pop at the plate and is underperforming his career triple-slash by a significant margin. Both stars should have better second halves, they are absolutely worth including in the limited set of Padres stacks we should be building. Jake Cronenworth, Gary Sanchez, Matt Carpenter, and Trent Grisham round out the lineup, they are all playable in minor shares if one gets carried away with Padres stacks in a terrible matchup.
Play: Shohei Ohtani, Joe Musgrove, bats in small doses on either side are just OK in a bad spot/configuration
Update Notes:
Atlanta Braves (-128/4.81) @ Cleveland Guardians (+118/4.29)
Stop us if you’ve heard this one, but the Braves are leading today’s stack board for projected fantasy points. The team drops a bit in the power index in a matchup against former ace Shane Bieber however, which looks like it may render them somewhat mortal on this slate. Though if we are being honest the expectation has to be that the team will hit another two to six home runs tonight. Bieber has been a shadow of his former self on the mound in most of his starts this season, he has a 3.48 ERA with a 4.01 xFIP which are fine, but his dip from 25% strikeouts last year and 33.1% the year before to just 19.5% this year is noteworthy. Bieber’s swinging-strike rate is down from 13.8% to just 10.7% after ineffective changes to his pitch mix. Bieber is inducing fewer whiffs on all of his pitches, but they are functionally similar to last season in terms of both velocity and spin rate. The primary change is that Bieber is now throwing his cutter 28.1% of the time, up from 15.8% last season and the pitch is not working to set up his other stuff, resulting in a dip from 40.0 and 40.7% whiffs on his slider and curveball to just 33.8% and 30.9%. The curveball was the primary victim, Bieber is throwing it just 12.7% of the time after using it 17.9% of the time as one of his primary putaway pitches. The cutter this season has a 30.8% whiff rate with hitters managing a .460 actual and .518 expected slugging percentage and .396 xWOBA against the pitch. Bieber has allowed a 2.75% home run rate on 46.6% hard hits and 91.4 mph of exit velocity this season, he has gotten away with some of the premium contact that he has allowed but he will not be able to do that against the hard-hitting Braves lineup. For $9,600/$9,800, Bieber is probably appropriately priced for this current form, with the potential to find more on the right night, this does not seem like that night. The Braves lineup is loaded from 1-9 and is frequently featured as a go-to option in this space. The numbers just keep on climbing for the everyday Atlanta lineup, which is already confirmed for this evening with the exception of catcher Travis d’Arnaud stepping in for regular Sean Murphy. The Braves open with superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. who is up to 21 home runs and 40 stolen bases while creating runs 70% better than average and slashing .335/.413/.599. Acuna does everything well and is a fixture in Braves stacks at any price. Ozzie Albies is priced at $5,600/$3,800 hitting second and filling second base, he has 20 home runs and is the best player at his position on this slate, Albies is an easy click in Braves stacks. Austin Riley has 15 home runs with a 108 WRC+ on the season, he has been making sturdy contact despite a dip in his triple-slash numbers, another season of 30 or more home runs is still in sight but Riley will need a better second half to crack the number, he hit 38 last season and 33 the year before. Matt Olson has massive power from the left side of the plate, the first baseman leads the team with 28 home runs and a .321 ISO this season and is carrying a 20.3% barrel rate and 56.3% hard-hit rate over 378 plate appearances. d’Arnaud will take Murphy’s spot and hit fifth in the lineup, he is no slouch for power at the plate and has hit seven home runs in just 137 plate appearances. Last season, d’Arnaud hit 18 home runs in 426 opportunities as more of an everyday player, he is an excellent backup option that will be less popular than Murphy would have been while providing a good ceiling at a cheap price. Marcell Ozuna has 17 home runs and a 120 WRC+, Eddie Rosario has 14 home runs and a 110 WRC+, the two veterans are easy options for mixing and matching through a large share of Braves stacks on any slate. Orlando Arcia remains underpriced and under-owned late in the lineup and Michael Harris II is up to nine home runs and 10 stolen bases with a 105 WRC+ and .184 ISO while slashing .269/.317/.453 after a major return to form.
Lefty Kolby Allard has made one start, throwing 4.2 effective innings last week against the Twins. The southpaw is not new to the Show, he has pitched on and off at this level since 2018, despite being just 25 this year. Allard debuted with Atlanta for an eight-inning cup of coffee in 2018 then threw 45.1 innings for Texas in 2019 and 33.2 in 2020. His most extensive exposure in the Show was in 2021, Allard was given 17 starts and made 32 total appearances for the Rangers posting a 4.64 xFIP and 5.41 ERA in 124.2 innings as a 23-year-old. Allard barely pitched in the Show in 2022 but is now back with the team that originally drafted him in the first round. In his start against the Twins last week he sat down 14 of 18 hitters, allowing three hits and one walk with no runs on the board and striking out eight of the free-swinging Twins. Allard is facing a Guardians lineup that has a collective 83 WRC+ to rank 29th, one spot below the Athletics, in the split against lefties this season. The team’s .130 ISO is not fear-inducing, though as usual they come with a warning about strikeouts. Against lefties this season, the active roster for Cleveland has just a 17.4% strikeout rate, the second-best mark in baseball behind the Astros. For just $6,800/$6,300 Allard is a viable option for a few shares in a full portfolio of lineups, he seems to have far more value as an SP2 on DraftKings than on FanDuel. Lefty outfielder Steven Kwan is supposed to be the catalyst atop the Cleveland lineup, he has not been good this season with just a .266 average and a .342 on-base percentage which is fine in a vacuum but way down from the .373 he posted while creating runs 24% better than average and stealing 19 bases last year. Kwan should at least exceed last season’s stolen base total, he has 13 in 375 plate appearances this year. Amed Rosario is slashing .261/.307/.347 and has been 19% below the average for run creation, if we were running Cleveland we might try getting more from him in a different spot in the batting order, Rosario has been bad but comes cheap for $3,600/$2,800. Jose Ramirez leads the team with a 12.29 in our home run model, he has 13 long balls with a .290/.360/.506 triple-slash and a 130 WRC+. Josh Bell has been another disappointing player along with Andres Gimenez at the bottom of the lineup. Bell and Gimenez have combined for 14 home runs with Bell at a 92 WRC+ and Gimenez at 94, though he does pop to a 131 in 93 plate appearances against lefties this season. David Fry slots in with one home run and one steal in 39 plate appearances with a 183 WRC+ and .214 ISO in his 16 mostly irrelevant opportunities against lefties. Will Brennan, Myles Straw, and Cam Gallagher are a weak bottom third, they have all been well below average against lefties this season.
Play: Braves bats/stacks, Kolby Allard value, Shane Bieber in small doses
Update Notes:
Toronto Blue Jays (-110/4.36) @ Chicago White Sox (+102/4.23)
The matchup in Chicago is looking close on the board in Vegas with the Blue Jays only slightly favored on the road at -110 with a 4.36-run implied total against righty Lucas Giolito. In 17 starts and 99.1 innings this year, Giolito has amassed a 3.53 ERA and 4.23 xFIP with a 26.1% strikeout rate and seven percent walks. Giolito has been basically that same pitcher over the past few seasons, he has upside to a ceiling score on any given slate but settles in as a second-tier starter on the whole. For $9,200/$10,200 Giolito has enough upside to be playable, but the spot is not overly appealing against a tough Toronto lineup. Giolito has a completely viable projection that aligns with the top options on the board, but several of those pitchers are less expensive in better matchups tonight. The Blue Jays lineup is loaded with talent from top to bottom, the team has three stars at the top of the daily batting order in George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with veteran Brandon Belt slotting in third at a cheap price that helps pay for his star teammates. Belt has been good with a 126 WRC+ in 215 plate appearances, he has six home runs and a .186 ISO and costs just $3,000/$2,800 on the left side. Belt is a proven power hitter on the back end of his career, he hit 29 home runs in just 381 plate appearances in 2021, there is probably more power lurking in his bat for the second half. Springer has been surging and is up to a 110 WRC+ with 12 homers and 13 stolen bases, but his ISO is still lingering in the .150 range. Bichette has a 10% barrel rate and 46% hard-hit rate for the season with 15 home runs and a .507 slugging percentage this year. Guerrero is our overall home run pick for the day, he has an 11.29 in our home run model with a dozen in the books in a bit of a down year for power despite a massive contact profile. Matt Chapman has 11 home runs but cooled somewhat as time carried on this season, he still has a strong contact profile with 59.2% hard hits and an 18.5% barrel rate and is cheap for his potential at $4,600/$3,100. Daulton Varsho has 12 home runs for just $3,300/$2,700 on the left side of the plate, all 12 of his home runs have come against righties this year, he has a .193 ISO in the split with a .036 ISO against same-handed pitching. Whit Merrifield has 18 stolen bases and a 98 WRC+ on the season, he is cheap and flexible between second base and the outfield. Danny Jansen and Kevin Kiermaier round out the lineup, Jansen has 10 home runs in 181 plate appearances this season and is a good option for power behind the plate, Kiermaier is a mix-in option in the outfield.
The White Sox draw a talented but dramatically up-and-down veteran righty from the second or third tier of starters as well. Chris Bassitt is not a name that MLB DFS gamers probably like hearing, he has blown up several times on the mound this year, but has also been a model of consistently deep quality starts for stretches of this season and in years past. Bassitt has a 4.06 ERA and 4.49 xFIP with a 22.1% strikeout rate overall this season. The righty has pitched to a 1.19 WHIP with an 8.3% walk rate that is well up from the past two seasons, he has also allowed more premium contact with 9.5% barrels and a 3.81% home run rate in 17 starts and 99.2 innings. Bassitt has come out of several games early after getting tattooed for runs but when things are right he is typically reliable for six to seven innings and a good shot at the win and quality start. This has the makings of a both-sided matchup with the White Sox and Bassitt both as playable parts. The pitcher checks in at an affordable $8,500/$9,600, he struck out 12 in his last outing while shutting out the Giants with three hits and three walks in six innings. He allowed four runs in five innings with four strikeouts the start prior to that and made a pair of starts with just 3.2 and 3.0 innings pitched in the two before that one. There is good and bad throughout the season for Bassitt, he is in no way safe but he has a clear path to a ceiling score. Bassitt and Giolito have fundamentally equal projections in our pitching model today. The White Sox lineup can be played against the pitcher in other lineups, Chicago is projected to open in typical form with Andrew Benintendi who is back below the waterline at a 99 WRC+. The lefty leadoff man is getting on base at a .347 clip but was at .373 last year, much like Steven Kwan, Benintendi is a light hitter who needs those 30 points of on-base percentage to provide his value to the club. For $3,300/$2,900 the outfielder is still a viable part of White Sox stacks, but he has not been good and has limited DFS appeal. Tim Anderson is having by far the worst season of his career at just .231/.270/.267 with a .036 ISO, zero home runs, and nine stolen bases. Luis Robert Jr. is having easily the best season of his career at a robust .276/.337/.575 with a .298 ISO and 24 home runs while creating runs 47% better than average. Eloy Jimenez is another outfielder with major power in the Chicago lineup, he has made just 227 plate appearances this season after battling another slate of injuries, but he has 11 home runs and a .209 ISO when healthy and costs just $4,600/$3,500. Andrew Vaughn has created runs 14% better than average and has 12 home runs with a .197 ISO to round out the team’s sturdy power core. Vaughn is a good young hitter at first base and he costs just $3,500/$3,200 despite a 10% barrel rate and 48.4% hard hits. Yasmani Grandal, Jake Burger, and Zach Remillard are mix-and-match options later in the lineup, Grandal is a viable catcher, Burger has 18 home runs on the season, and Remillard has been good over 46 opportunities so far. Outfield prospect Oscar Colas was recalled to the White Sox and the toolsy rookie costs just $2,300/$2,000 tonight.
Play: any of the four corners of this one are viable, Giolito, Bassitt, Blue Jays, White Sox in very close order would be our ranking
Update Notes:
Pittsburgh Pirates (+209/3.60) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-232/5.53)
The Pirates draw righty Emmet Sheehan in his fourth start and check in as huge underdogs at +209 with a 3.60-run implied total. Sheehan has been deceptively good in his first three outings, he has a 2.65 ERA but a more telling 5.02 xFIP and just a 19% strikeout rate. The righty has induced just 8.7% swinging strikes with a 22.3% CSW% and has allowed a 3.17% home run rate on 10.6% barrels and 42.6% hard hits in the tiny sample. Sheehan is not bereft of talent on the mound, he has walked just 6.3% of opposing hitters and he was far better for strikeouts in the minors. Sheehan is probably working slightly over his head right now at just 23, but the young righty has gotten away with it to this point and he faces a limited opponent in the Pirates. He has worked into the sixth inning twice and completed five in his last start despite giving up three runs on seven hits while striking out five. At $6,400/$8,300, Sheehan is absolutely an option on both sites in this spot. There is a path to six clean innings with a solid handful of strikeouts, but expectations should be somewhat tempered given the underlying marks against the righty. Pittsburgh is not a major priority at the plate, but their lineup is playable in parts and makes for an interesting opportunity at what should be low ownership in the late game. Jack Suwinski, Bryan Reynolds, and Andrew McCutchen make up the top three in the projected batting order and they are the top three players on the team, with apologies to emerging rookie Henry Davis. Suwinski has significant power and is cheap at just $3,600/$2,900, Reynolds is the team’s best player, he has power and speed and a very good hit tool and has created runs 16% better than average while costing just $4,700/$3,400 in the outfield. McCutchen has also been good this season, the veteran cooled after a hot start but is still very capable against a pitcher of this nature at just $4,200/$3,300. That all three of those players and Davis are exclusively available in the outfield on DraftKings is problematic, Davis should get catcher eligibility to make the team more viable on the site, even if he is currently not playing his original position in the Show on a regular basis. The rookie has premium talent and more value positionally at catcher, given his good power and speed profile, he has one home run and two steals already in just 55 plate appearances. Carlos Santana is projected to hit cleanup, the switch-hitting veteran has nine home runs in 318 opportunities and is not expensive. Nick Gonzales, Tucupita Marcano, Jared Triolo, and Austin Hedges round out the weak bottom end for Pittsburgh.
The Dodgers are carrying the highest implied team total of the day at 5.53 in Vegas. Rookie righty Luis Ortiz has not been very good on the mound this season. Ortiz has made nine starts and thrown 50.1 innings, he has a 4.11 ERA but a 5.26 xFIP with just 13.7% strikeouts and an 11% walk rate. The righty has allowed an 11.8% barrel rate with 91.7 mph of exit velocity and 47.1% hard hits amounting to a 3.52% home run rate that is only cut down by a 5.4-degree average launch angle allowed thus far. The Dodgers are an elite offense packed with talent, they are the clear go-to and Ortiz does not seem viable even at $5,100/$7,200. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith crush the world for runs and power and don’t strike out to lead off the first three spots in the lineup, we wish the low-strikeout Ortiz luck in his matchup. Betts has a 16.9% strikeout rate and 22 home runs, Freeman is at 17.1% and 14 homers, and Smith sits at 13.4% with a dozen long balls. Max Muncy and JD Martinez both strike out aggressively, but that won’t matter much against the contact-oriented starter, the duo has combined for 38 home runs this season. David Peralta, Jason Heyward, and James Outman are a trio of playable lefties late in the lineup in the outfield. All three come at fair-to-cheap pricing given the potential for home run hitting in this matchup, they are all playable in alternating turns through an abundance of stacks of Dodgers tonight. Miguel Rojas has been lousy this season, he has a 56 WRC+ with zero home runs and five stolen bases while slashing .236/.276/.291 with a .055 ISO in 196 plate appearances.
Play: Dodgers bats/stacks aggressively, Emmet Sheehan value as a mid-level option, minor shares of Pirates stacks
Update Notes:
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