A late start and a loaded day have us in a bit of hurry-up mode for the 12-game Friday night main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. The pitching slate looks broader than it is tall, with only a few premium options but numerous OK to decent options in a variety of situations that should render several of them as viable plays for MLB DFS purposes. The slate is going to be won with bats once again however, there is a Coors Field game in play and several other teams that are outpacing the implied run totals in Colorado in high-end matchups. Most specifically, the always popular, pricey, and productive Braves and Dodgers are both at massive run totals in excellent-looking spots for offense, but both teams will be quite popular on this slate.
Don’t miss our new Stack Suggestions feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
Join us at 4:00 pm ET for the MLB DFS Lineup Card Show and a full game-by-game breakdown:
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 6/30/23
Minnesota Twins (+102/4.23) @ Baltimore Orioles (-110/4.36)
The first game on deck features the Twins in Baltimore to face Orioles righty Dean Kremer who has a 4.50 ERA and 4.36 xFIP over 88 innings and 16 starts. Kremer is a roughly league-average starter for $8,100/$8,700 and there is strikeout upside beyond his typical output in the matchup against a Twins lineup that has a 29% strikeout rate collectively in the projected form. Kremer is an option for his price, he projects into the middle of the pitching board and has a fair ceiling at what should not be significant popularity. The Twins lineup can be played against Kremer as well, the team has plenty of power potential but their aggressive approach has not paid off for run creation or consistency and they are totaled at just 4.23 runs in Vegas. Edouard Julien opens the batting order for $3,100/$2,700 at second base, he is a decent leadoff option to start stacks of Twins he has a 121 WRC+ over 133 plate appearances. Carlos Correa has been slumping but remains a star-caliber option who has a .190 ISO and 11 home runs with an 11.9% barrel rate at a cheap price in a premium position. Alex Kirilloff has hit four home runs in 171 opportunities, he has a good left-handed bat for $2,900/$2,600. Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Royce Lewis, and Joey Gallo are a talented bunch to find from 4-7 in the lineup, Buxton is a star outfielder who has scuffled his way through the season, Kepler is a power-hitting lefty outfielder at a cheap price but he is not reliable for good triple-slash numbers, Lewis is a high-end prospect who has been performing well over 92 plate appearances with a .318/.348/.477 triple-slash and Gallo is a homerun or bust type of option. Christian Vazquez and Michael A. Taylor round out the projected lineup with capable veteran bats, Taylor remains a sneaky-cheap option for low-owned power.
The Twins will throw talented righty hurler Pablo Lopez at the Orioles for his 17th start in what has been a productive but up-and-down season. Lopez started out very strong but has come back to Earth over the course of the year, he has a 4.41 ERA and 3.44 xFIP in 96 innings and has amassed an excellent 30.1% strikeout rate. Lopez remains among the league leaders with a 14.7% swinging-strike rate and he has a very good 29.9% CSW% while limiting home runs to 2.76% on 87.7 mph of exit velocity. Outside of a few blips for earned runs, Lopez has been a strong option for DFS through most of the season, he checks into a quality matchup for $9,900/$9,500 tonight. Lopez is one of our top projected pitchers against the Orioles on this slate and he is not likely to see extreme popularity. The Orioles lineup ranks somewhat down the board by overall projections with a weak back end bringing down the overall lineup average. The projected version opens with speed and power option Cedric Mullins in the outfield at $4,900/$3,400. Mullins has eight home runs and 13 stolen bases in 245 plate appearances and makes for a dynamic option to lead off on the left side. Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander are a pair of excellent hitters in the second and third spots, Rutschman has 10 home runs and has created runs 22% better than average as one of the top catchers in baseball, and Santander has 14 home runs to lead the team’s projected lineup but costs just $4,500/$3,100. Ryan O’Hearn costs $3,500/$2,600 at first base or in the outfield on DraftKings but only at first base on the blue site. O’Hearn has six home runs in a hot 115 plate appearances but has been playing over his head somewhat at the plate. Austin Hays, Gunnar Henderson, and Aaron Hicks land 5-7 in a playable bunch. Hays has been the most consistent performer this season and has had a reliable bat for several seasons, he has a 136 WRC+ that sits second on the team. Henderson is up to 25% better than average for run creation and is a terrific option at the plate who draws walks and hits the ball squarely with regularity. Hicks is an inexpensive outfielder with a bit of power and good on-base skills. Jordan Westburg and Adam Frazier are good options in the final two spots when rostering Orioles, Westburg is a big rookie call up and Frazier is a capable veteran.
Play: Pablo Lopez, Dean Kremer, minor shares of bats on either side
Update Notes:
Milwaukee Brewers (-130/4.56) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+120/4.04)
Pirates righty Osvaldo Bido is an interesting option for MLB DFS tonight. Bido has made three starts and thrown 15.2 innings while pitching to a 3.45 ERA and 3.75 xFIP with a 25.4% strikeout rate and a seven percent walk rate in the tiny sample. Bido is not a high-end prospect but he has shown a bit of ability in his first few outings and he is facing a fairly heavy-strikeout Brewers lineup that lands at 4.56 implied runs in Vegas. For $7,800 on either site, the righty is in play, he probably makes a better option as an SP2 on DraftKings but there is potential on the blue site on a broad pitching board. Rostering Brewers hitters is viable as well, they are drawing fair projections and a bit of upside for power with Christian Yelich, William Contreras, Rowdy Tellez, and Willy Adames as the focal points. Yelich is an underpriced star who has created runs 19% better than average with nine homers and 18 stolen bases, Contreras is a viable catcher with a power bat, Tellez has inconsistent but major power when he connects, his expected slugging percentage and contact metrics are off this season, but Tellez still has 12 home runs on the year and a 12.46 in our home run model. Adames hits cleanup in the projected lineup, he also has a dozen home runs on the season but is slashing .198/.287/.365 with a 78 WRC+ overall. Jesse Winker has been bad all year, Owen Miller is cheap with multi-position eligibility on both sites and has been having an impactful but overall average year in 225 plate appearances, and Brice Turang, Blake Perkins, and Joey Wiemer round out the bottom as playable mix-in options.
The Pirates have Freddy Peralta on the hill in the midst of an odd season. The righty was once extremely reliable for limiting opposing power and home runs but seems to give two up every time we talk about him. The veteran righty has lost some of his strikeout talents, dropping from 27.1% last year and 33.6% the year before to just 25.4% this season, but his 12.6% swinging-strike rate and 28.4% CSW% are roughly in line with previous seasons. Peralta has a 3.99% home run rate on 37.8% hard hits and 9.3% barrels so far, last year he was at 3.5% barrels, 31.3% hard hits, and a 1.89% home run rate. Peralta’s odd results get odder when looking at the pitch-by-pitch output, he is throwing his fastball with more velocity while his slider whiff rate has jumped from 30.2% to 45.3% but his curveball has dropped from 38% to 31.8%. All of the pitches are drawing slugging percentages that are up about .100 points since last season with expected slugging percentage in the low .400s against his fastball and slider. The righty has upside for $9,700/$9,200 for DFS purposes, but the play is not nearly as safe as it once was. Rostering a few shares of Pirates is not out of line in this spot, but they are totaled at just 4.04 runs and the good version of Peralta would have no problem slicing his way through their projected lineup. The Pirates open with Jack Suwinski, who has the team lead in home runs at 16. The lefty outfielder has real MLB power at the plate, his barrel rate sits at 17.2% with a 47.8% hard-hit rate and he has added seven stolen bases to his tally. For just $3,300/$2,700, Suwinski is a good option for MLB DFS who gains upside if he is truly hitting leadoff, if he drops to fourth or fifth in the batting order a bit is shaved off of the expectation but he remains good. Andrew McCutchen joins returning Bryan Reynolds in the heart of the lineup, they have both produced in spurts this season but the consistency is not there for counting stats with either player. McCutchen has a 130 WRC+ and Reynolds has created runs 22% better than average as the team’s nominal best player. Henry Davis costs just $2,200/$2,500, he has catcher eligibility on FanDuel but not on DraftKings and is more of a common talent in the outfield. Davis’ power and speed are more valuable commodities behind the plate but he is perfectly playable when going to Pirates. Carlos Santana has power from both sides of the plate and eight home runs on the season but he has been the model of inconsistency. Nick Gonzales, Ji-Hwan Bae, Jared Triolo, and Austin Hedges round out the lineup in low-end form.
Play: Freddy Peralta, Osvaldo Bido, Brewers bats/stacks as a mid-level option
Update Notes:
Boston Red Sox (+124/4.23) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-135/4.87)
Veteran righty Jose Berrios has been the good version of himself on the mound in most of his starts this season. Berrios has a 3.60 ERA and 4.07 xFIP in 16 starts and 95 innings. He has struck out 22% of opposing hitters with a 7.1% walk rate while yielding just a 32.8% hard-hit rate and 2.53% home runs which are key factors for him in reaching DFS upside. Berrios had a down season on the whole last year and allowed too much premium contact and home run upside at 9.5% barrels, 43.4% hard hits, and a 3.85% home run rate. In 2021 the righty had a much stronger 26.1% strikeout rate on 9.9% swinging strikes and a 29% CSW%, this year both of those marks are up at 10.9% and 29.9% which makes us think his strikeouts should be slightly higher by the season’s end. Berrios is an option at $9,500/$9,700 but he ranks relatively low on the board in the matchup against Boston. The Red Sox are a highly-ranked team on our stacks board, there is upside for power and run creation despite just a 4.23-run implied total. Jarren Duran costs just $3,300/$2,700 in the outfield to lead off the projected lineup, he has moderate power and speed and good correlated scoring potential. The lineup continues with veteran Justin Turner who is cheap for his power and hit tool, Alex Verdugo who has an excellent hit tool on the left side and a good ability to get on base with moderate power as well, and Rafael Devers, whose overall output has been reduced but whose power remains in a big way. Devers is cheap for his potential at $5,100/$3,900 in this matchup, he has 19 home runs with a 13.2% barrel rate and 51.7% hard hits. Mastaka Yoshida costs $4,800/$3,200 in the outfield, he has a sharp hit tool with mid-range power and has been an excellent source of run creation for the Red Sox with a 126 WRC+ on the year. Triston Casas has premium left-handed power when he connects. The first baseman’s 13.9% barrel rate and 46.2% hard-hit rate go well with a 14% walk rate and support the idea of a big second half. Casas has nine home runs on the season and has pulled himself up to a 102 WRC+ and .227/.333/.404 triple-slash. The bottom third of the projected lineup includes Christian Arroyo, David Hamilton, and Connor Wong.
The Blue Jays look highly playable against lefty James Paxton, who paradoxically makes for a good option on the mound and projects as one of our better pitching options on this slate. Both things can be true for MLB DFS, particularly on this side of lock. Paxton has a 31.8% strikeout rate over 42.1 innings and eight starts since his return, that fact cannot be ignored when evaluating opportunities. At the same time, the lefty has yielded a 3.53% home run rate on 10.6% barrels and 39.4% hard hits so far this season and seems targetable with all of the Blue Jays’ quality for power and run creation. Paxton is also dealing with right knee pain and came out of his most recent start after just four innings despite allowing only a solo home run and striking out three White Sox. Given the matchup, the questions about depth, the hard hits he has allowed, and a general sense of disbelief around the industry, Paxton will likely be low-owned at $10,300/$10,100, he has upside for tournament play unless an innings limit is announced. The Blue Jays’ three stars are all above the magic number in our home run model. George Springer sits at 11.48 in the leadoff role, he has 11 homers and 12 stolen bases on the season. Bo Bichette is third in the group at 10.74 and is projected to hit third behind Whit Merrifield in a good configuration of this lineup against the southpaw. Merrifield provides correlated scoring potential with a minor amount of power and good speed at cheap prices at second base and in the outfield. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a 13.31 in the home run model and is slated to hit fourth against Paxton, he has a dozen home runs and a 126 WRC+ on the season and should not be skipped in stacks of Blue Jays hitters. Guerrero is cheap at $5,200/$3,500 at first base, he has an upside far beyond those prices. Matt Chapman, Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen, Daulton Varsho, and Santiago Espinal round out the projected lineup with quality. Chapman has been pounding the ball all season but his home run output has been limited, he is a good buy at third base in the middle of the lineup; Kirk and Jansen both have power behind the plate as cheap low-owned catcher options, and Varsho adds the same in the outfield while Espinal is a mix-in infielder.
Play: Jose Berrios, Blue Jays bats/stacks, James Paxton in small doses, Red Sox bats/stacks
Update Notes:
San Francisco Giants (-124/4.77) @ New York Mets (+114/4.33)
Veteran righty Carlos Carrasco is a survivor and a great story and has been a quality pitcher over time, but he has looked more like a target through 2023 and has not been pitching deep into ball games even when things are going relatively well. Carrasco has not pitched in the fifth inning in his last two starts and went just 4.2 and 5.0 innings in two starts before that stretch, he does not look like a strong option at $6,000/$6,400 and a middling projection. The Giants are favored in the matchup, they have right-handed veteran Alex Cobb on the mound, he has been consistently good this season and typically manages to cut power by limiting launch angles. Cobb has a 3.09 ERA and 3.24 xFIP with a 22.5% strikeout rate and has allowed just 1.78% home runs on a 0.3-degree average launch angle. Cobb was at a 1.8-degree angle and 1.43% home runs last year and a 3.0-degree angle with a 1.27% home run rate the year before. The righty costs just $8,600/$9,300, he also projects in the middle of the board but has more potential than Carrasco on this slate.
The Giants are drawing a 4.77-run implied total and they have several key left-handed power bats that are appealing in this matchup. The projected lineup opens with LaMonte Wade Jr. who has been a fixture for praise in this space this season. Wade costs just $4,100/$3,200 despite creating runs 46% better than average and barreling the ball in 9.8% of his batted-ball events with nine home runs to show for it. Thairo Estrada has mid-level pop and great speed and has created runs 11% better than average, he is the team’s most expensive player at $5,200/$3,500 which may actually be slightly high given his overall output, Estrada is good but not great, his multi-position eligibility helps the price on FanDuel. Joc Pederson and JD Davis provide threatening lefty-righty power and excellent contact profiles for good prices. Patrick Bailey and Blake Sabol are another righty-lefty duo that has been good for run creation and power this season, they are both cheap and both carry catcher eligibility, with Sabol also slotting into the outfield on both sites. Austin Slater is a capable hitter late in the lineup, Luis Matos has a good hit tool and speed but little MLB experience with just 55 plate appearances under his belt, he has created runs 25% behind the curve in that sample, and Brandon Crawford has left-handed veteran pop at shortstop. Meanwhile, the Mets are a limited option with a low run total in a home game and a pitcher who does not allow much in terms of home run power on most nights on the mound. Brandon Nimmo is a good creator of opportunities as a catalyst in the Mets lineup, his nose for getting on base will be valuable in a game in which the team will have to sequence and create runs in the absence of homers. Francisco Lindor is a better option than Starling Marte if choosing between the two and three hitters. Marte has been up and down this season but still has potential for stolen bases, and Lindor has struggled for quality but has major power potential at shortstop in the third spot in the lineup while feeding directly into thumper Pete Alonso at first base. Tommy Pham is cheap in the outfield in the midst of a productive bounceback season while Jeff McNeil, Daniel Vogelbach, Francisco Alvarez, and Brett Baty are playable mix-in options late in the lineup. Overall, the Mets are a low-priority option at the plate in this matchup.
Play: Giants bats/stacks, Alex Cobb
Update Notes:
Miami Marlins (+164/4.31) @ Atlanta Braves (-181/5.81)
The hometown Braves are big favorites over the frisky Marlins in Atlanta tonight. Miami will face returning righty Mike Soroka who has thrown just 9.2 innings in two starts in the Show this season, but has made 11 starts and thrown 54.1 innings in AAA. Soroka has a 4.68 xFIP and 3.31 ERA with a 23.5% strikeout rate in AAA this season, the 25-year-old righty was productive at the MLB level over 174.2 innings in 2019 as a 21-year-old but has been largely unavailable with injuries since then. Soroka profiles as a roughly league-average starter for strikeouts with the potential for clean innings, at $7,100/$7,400, Soroka is on the value board with a mid-level projection in this matchup. The Marlins are a top-heavy lineup with Luis Arraez and Jorge Soler carrying much of the weight with run creation marks of 156 and 132 respectively. The duo is excellent at cheap prices with Arraez setting the table and Soler gobbling up the runs with power. Bryan De La Cruz has been a good contributor and costs just $4,000/$2,900 in the outfield, he has a 108 WRC+ and nine home runs while slashing .281/.329/.431 for the season. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a talented toolsy player who has nine home runs and 14 stolen bases in just 172 plate appearances and boosted this lineup in his recent return from injury. Garrett Cooper has power but not much else in the fifth spot in the lineup, he has 10 home runs on the season with a .182 ISO but just a 98 WRC+. Jean Segura has a 45 WRC+ and is below the Mendoza line for the season. Jesus Sanchez has power from the left side but has not found his form after his hot start to the year was wrecked by an injury. Jacob Stallings and Joey Wendle close out the projected version of the lineup.
The Braves are drawing a higher run total than either of the two lousy teams at Coors Field tonight and six of the team’s nine hitters are pulling in marks above the magic number in our home run model against righty Bryan Hoeing. The righty is making his fifth start of the season, he has a 2.31 ERA and 4.45 xFIP with a 20.1% strikeout rate and nine percent walks in 35 innings this season but profiles as more of a target than a pitching option even at a very cheap $5,600/$5,700. Atlanta’s lineup is outrageously talented, they have seven hitters with 13 or more home runs on the season and everyone in the lineup has created runs at an above-average pace. Even their eighth hitter is an All-Star, though Orlando Arcia still gets no love from the DFS sites at just $4,400/$2,800. The Braves are playable from 1-9, they have talent in all spots with obvious names like Ronald Acuna Jr. at the top of the batting order. Acuna has 19 home runs and 36 stolen bases halfway through a ridiculously good season, he is justifiably the most expensive hitter on the slate at $6,600/$4,500. Ozzie Albies has 18 home runs and six steals with a 112 WRC+ at second base, Austin Riley has 14 homers in a bit of a downturn but is a strong candidate for a monster second half, and Matt Olson leads the team with 26 long balls. The left-handed first baseman costs $6,400/$4,000 and has a team-leading 12.41 in our home run model in this spot. Sean Murphy is on of the top options behind the plate for MLB DFS, he has 13 home runs and a 150 WRC+ in 244 plate appearances. Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario have also been excellent this season as cheap and fairly unpopular outfielders for DFS, Ozuna has 16 home runs and a .242 ISO with a 120 WRC+ and Rosario has 13 long balls with a .231 and 116. Arcia and surging Michael Harris II round out the lineup, Harris is up to .266/.318/.432 with seven homers, nine stolen bases, and a 101 WRC+ after a start to the season that had him looking like Jack Nicholson at the end of The Shining.
Play: Braves bats/stacks aggressively
Update Notes:
Houston Astros (+156/3.95) @ Texas Rangers (-170/5.15)
Houston’s lineup made up for lost time with a monster performance last night against Adam Wainwright in further proof that the veteran righty should have hung up his glove last season. Houston draws righty Jon Gray in a different sort of matchup tonight and they are carrying just a 3.95-run implied total. Gray has a 2.89 ERA and 4.38 xFIP in a bit of a mismatched season over 81 innings and 14 starts. The veteran has been good but perhaps a bit lucky to avoid runs, but his 21.6% strikeout rate and 12.4% swinging-strike rate are appealing and he has been solid at limiting power with a 34.2% hard-hit rate and 3.13% home run rate this year. Gray is cheap at $9,300 on DraftKings, his $10,000 price on FanDuel seems likely to keep his ownership low, he is a good DFS option tonight against the still-scuffling Astros. One game does not make all the difference, Houston has underperformed badly for most of the year but they do have quality options like Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker in the lineup. All three of those players are options in Astros stacks, Altuve is a star at second base and he is still cheap after missing a big chunk of the season, Bregman is on the back end of a good career but still offers home run upside with a dozen on the year and a good correlated scoring output with 14% better than average run creation. Tucker has 11 home runs and 14 stolen bases and lands at just $5,100/$3,500. Jose Abreu, Yainer Diaz, Corey Julks, and Jeremy Pena are mix-in options through the middle of the lineup. Diaz has been good as a backup catcher but it is important to be realistic about go-forward production rather than backward-looking. Abreu has been bad but has shown a pulse in recent weeks, he costs $3,300/$2,800 as a value bolt-on at first base, and Julks and Pena have both only produced in spurts this season. The bottom of the lineup is comprised of Jake Meyers and Martin Maldonado, they are mix-in options at best.
The Rangers are pulling a 5.15-run implied total in Vegas in a good spot against righty Ronel Blanco, who is making his fifth start of the season. Blanco has a 4.63 ERA and 4.92 xFIP with a 24% strikeout rate in 35 innings. The righty has a bit of strikeout acumen, his 16.4% swinging-strike rate is outstanding in the small sample, but the upside seems to be more with the Rangers and all their power potential. For $6,800/$6,300, Blanco will not be popular, he has a better path to success on DraftKings as a low-owned low-expectation SP2. The Rangers’ projected lineup is in its typical form with leadoff man Marcus Semien and his excellent double-play partner Corey Seager in the top two spots. The star infielders are always in play, they have power and premium run-creation ability to lead off one of the game’s more productive lineups. Nathaniel Lowe is a good price offset at first base for just $4,400/$3,100, he has eight home runs and slashes .277/.372/.427 for the year. Adolis Garcia has 20 home runs and a 131 WRC+ in the heart of the lineup. The outfielder is a star with a 15.6% barrel rate and 51.3% hard-hit rate and a massive .247 ISO in 348 plate appearances, he is a good buy at $5,600/$4,000. Josh Jung has 16 home runs and a .212 ISO and has been very good all season as an affordable third baseman in the Texas lineup. Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim are interchangeable power bats at the catcher position late in the lineup for fair prices and generally low popularity, and the bottom pairing of Ezequiel Duran and Leody Taveras is always viable for mix-in upside. Both Duran and Taveras are having strong seasons, they sit at 158 and 129 WRC+ marks in 229 and 261 plate appearances and have both produced counting stats for DFS purposes. As always, the bottom of the batting order should be used in small doses as mix-ins with the top hitters, most of the production both for real baseball and DFS comes from the top few hitters in a lineup who see more opportunities at the plate.
Play: Rangers bats/stacks, Jon Gray
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-210/5.71) @ Kansas City Royals (+190/3.92)
The elite Dodgers are facing righty Alec Marsh in a bit of an unfair spot for his MLB debut. Marsh is a highly regarded pitching prospect who will be cast into the fire against one of baseball’s best lineups. The righty has made 11 starts at AA and three at AAA this season, he had a 4.33 xFIP and 5.32 ERA with a 26.4% strikeout rate in AA and a 4.28 xFIP with a 2.40 ERA and 28.8% strikeout rate against better competition in the smaller sample at AAA. Marsh has a diverse arsenal of mid-grade pitches with a mid-90s four-seamer, a sinker, and a basic slider-curve-changeup mixed bag. Marsh has posted interesting strikeout numbers in the minors but has had issues with walks, he has not posted a season with a walk rate below 10% since Rookie ball in 2019. Marsh costs just $4,000 on DraftKings and does not appear on the FanDuel slate. At a cheap hitter price, a few darts can certainly be thrown, but the play is not looking sharp with the Dodgers landing at a 5.71 implied total that rivals the Braves and outpaces the teams playing in Coors. The Dodgers lineup is difficult to strike out and knows how to draw a walk, the star-studded list of options includes Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith up top for high but worthwhile prices. The group has a WRC+ average of 148 with a .235 average ISO, Betts leads the way with 20 home runs but Freeman has 14 and Smith has 12, they are far too talented. Max Muncy has light tower power from the left side and is a major threat for the rookie, he has a 12.93 in our home run model to lead the team. JD Martinez has 19 homers this season with a .319 ISO and has been mashing with a 17.2% barrel rate and 52.9% hard hits. David Peralta is a quality left-handed veteran in the outfield, which is also true of Jason Heyward, they can be combined with James Outman in a rotation of cheap lower-owned outfielders late in this lineup. Miguel Rojas has not been good this season and has a 55 WRC+ in the ninth spot.
The Royals are not a good baseball team and they offer major strikeout upside to opposing pitchers. Rookie Bobby Miller is a premium prospect who will be making his seventh MLB start. Miller has a 22.6% strikeout rate and 4.13 ERA with a 4.07 xFIP over his first six outings and 32.2 innings. The righty has allowed just a 6.5% barrel rate and 1.46% home run rate in the small sample while inducing swinging strikes at a 10.8% clip. Miller is a good option on the mound at $8,900/$9,800, the appeal is greater as an SP2 on DraftKings but he projects well overall and is in play on both sites. The Royals are a low-priority stack on our board, those looking to roster quality can basically stop after the fourth spot in the lineup, with Nick Pratto, Bobby Witt Jr., Sal Perez, and MJ Melendez as the relatively obvious quality core in Kansas City. Pratto strikes out too much but has a good contact profile when he connects and is cheap on the left side, Witt has to get on base more but has 12 home runs and 23 stolen bases, Perez is a major power hitter at catcher, he has 15 home runs to lead the team, and Melendez is another big lefty with a great contact profile but low-end returns. Maikel Garcia, Kyle Isbel, Edward Olivares, Drew Waters, and Nicky Lopez are all low-end options, only Olivares at exactly 100 avoids being below league average for run creation so far this year.
Play: Dodgers bats/stacks, Bobby Miller, minor shares of Alec Marsh value on DraftKings at $4,000, but it’s not great
Update Notes:
Detroit Tigers (-115/5.71) @ Colorado Rockies (+106/5.41)
Two terrible teams square off in Coors Field tonight with the Tigers visiting the Rockies and both teams landing at high run totals. The matchup between home starter Austin Gomber and visiting fellow southpaw Michael Lorenzen has us looking elsewhere for pitching, neither starter has value at $6,400/$8,200 and $5,400/$5,900, they are both targets on this slate. The Tigers lineup is projected to open with Matt Vierling and Spencer Torkelson on the right side, both are quality options against a lefty and Torkelson has been showing a bit of life in his bat. The former first-overall pick is up to 11 home runs and a 94 WRC+ in 335 plate appearances. Andy Ibanez is productive against southpaws and is likely to hit high in the lineup, making him a bad player who becomes a good situational option. Ibanez costs just $3,000/$2,800 and has multi-position eligibility on both sites. Javier Baez has been bad all year, he costs $4,900/$3,100 at shortstop with five home runs, a .227/.263/.330 triple-slash and a 63 WRC+. Eric Haase has been bad against lefties and overall this season, Jonathan Schoop and Miguel Cabrera have been bad all year and should have hung it up last season, and the lineup ends poorly with Jake Rogers and Zack Short, both of whom are more productive against lefties. The Tigers are a bad team but they have produced a bit more in this split and are favored with a 5.71-run implied team total. Detroit’s lineup seems likely to be popular on this slate, if there is a justifiable team to undercut in a good-looking Coors spot, it is probably this one.
The Rockies are just as bad and are facing the better of these two pitchers, but they are drawing a 5.41-run implied total and have plenty of potential in a Coors Field game as well. The flawed lineup opens as usual with lousy Jurickson Profar, but the Rockies should see a boost from the return of former All-Star Kris Bryant in the second spot in the lineup. If they were smart, Ezequiel Tovar would replace Profar in the first spot instead of hitting seventh, but these are the Rockies. Ryan McMahon loses much of his quality against same-handed pitching but is playable when stacking Rockies and would see chances against righties out of the bullpen if Lorenzen is chased early (note: correcting an earlier brain skip that confused Lorenzen and Liberatore when writing about McMahon, Lorenzen is a righty and McMahon is a good option for power against him). Elias Diaz and CJ Cron are quality right-handed bats, Diaz has a strong triple-slash as a value catcher and Cron offers major power potential with a 5.75 in our home run model. Nolan Jones and Tovar are interesting rookies late in the lineup, Jones has been excellent this season and has good power, Tovar has been up and down but has tools for just $3,800/$3,000 at shortstop. Harold Castro and Brenton Doyle are playable parts in the bottom two spots in small doses. Doyle has six home runs and 11 stolen bases this year but sits at just 60 WRC+.
Play: bats bats bats
Update Notes:
New York Yankees (-103/4.79) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-105/4.81)
Two of baseball’s most storied franchises square off in St. Louis in a game that should provide four corners for MLB DFS gamers. Both home starter Matthew Liberatore and visiting Luis Severino are playable starters with flaws and matchups that are not ideal, which pushes the two quality lineups to good-not-great run totals. Between the two, Liberatore has been the less effective pitcher so far at a 5.60 ERA and 5.68 xFIP with just a 16% strikeout rate in six starts and 27.1 big league innings this year. The lefty is a highly regarded pitching prospect, but he has not put things together in the Show at all to this point. Liberatore made seven starts and pitched to a 17.4% strikeout rate and 5.97 ERA with a 4.94 xFIP last season. He has also allowed an unsustainable amount of premium contact with an 11% barrel rate and 41.8% hard hits with 91 mph of exit velocity on average. Severino has been slightly better, he has a 5.25 ERA and a 5.03 xFIP with a 19.5% strikeout rate in 36 innings and seven starts, but the Yankees are cautious with the righty and he has managed to induce just a 7.9% swinging-strike rate while walking 9.1% so far this season. Severino is cheap at $7,400/$7,500, he projects well with a bit of history weighing in and we have a longer track record with the Yankees righty, but he has not been on form and the Cardinals have several deadly-good hitters in the lineup.
At 4.79 implied runs against a pitcher who offers up as much solid contact as Liberatore has without striking hitters out, the Yankees power bats have appeal in this matchup. The projected lineup opens with DJ LeMahieu who has been flat-out bad all season at .227/.289/.377 with an 84 WRC+ and seven home runs. LeMahieu is cheap and was once a premium hit tool specialist, if he leads off he can at least provide correlated scoring. Gleyber Torres has a dozen home runs and a .167 ISO but has been up and down at the plate this season. Anthony Rizzo has 11 home runs but has been mired in a weeks-long slump that took him from above .300 to .269/.357/.430, he is still good for run creation and has plenty of home run upside even lefty-lefty. Giancarlo Stanton has a 12.0 in our home run model to lead the team, if he connects the ball is going over the wall tonight. Harrison Bader and Josh Donaldson are playable options, Bader offers moderate power, a productive hit tool, and good speed while Donaldson sells out for power but has a productive eight home runs in just 85 plate appearances and has been coming on somewhat of late. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Anthony Volpe, and Kyle Higashioka are mix-in options late in the lineup, Volpe is up to .212/.290/.375 and his hit tool may finally be snapping into place. The Cardinals lineup is also playable, they have a similar 4.81-run implied total with Vegas seeing this game basically as a pick ’em. Lefty Brendan Donovan is a good leadoff hitter who has a 115 WRC+ and eight home runs with a .365 on-base percentage this season ahead of the team’s top bats. Paul Goldschmidt is a stud at first base with a 13.5% barrel rate and 56.5% hard-hit rate for just $5,700/$3,900. Lars Nootbaar is a productive lefty hitter with a good blend of mid-range power and speed, he should slot in between Goldschmidt and fellow superstar Nolan Arenado who leads the team with 16 home runs in 326 plate appearances. Arenado is up to a 118 WRC+ with a .211 ISO in a massive turnaround after his dead start to the season, he still is somewhat cheap from the struggles however, at just $5,300/$3,200. Willson Contreras has not been a productive player for this team in 2023, he has an 89 WRC+ but his mid-range power plays for DFS at the catcher position when stacking Cardinals. Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman are premium young players late in the lineup. Walker has been mostly good in the Show this year in 160 plate appearances, he has created runs 37% better than average overall. Gorman has 15 home runs in 276 plate appearances but most of that came in a hurry early in the year, he has been struggling at the plate for weeks but is now cheap at $4,600/$2,900. The power will roar back for Gorman who is destined to be a streaky hitter at second base, we want to be ahead of the curve when it does. Paul DeJong and Tommy Edman wrap the lineup with quality, Edman can be worked-in with the lineup’s top end for speed and moderate power.
Play: four corners: Yankees bats/stacks, Cardinals bats/stacks, Luis Severino in small doses, Matthew Liberatore in even smaller value shares
Update Notes:
Arizona Diamondbacks (+142/4.29) @ Los Angeles Angels (-155/5.32)
One of the late games on the slate is a good matchup between the productive Diamondbacks and the Angels that sees the hometown Halos carrying a much larger implied team total than the visitors. Righty Griffin Canning has been quietly good this season, he is not a standout on the mound and is a questionable option for MLB DFS play at $9,300 on FanDuel, but he could be a useful part at $8,300 on DraftKings. Canning has a 22.9% strikeout rate and 3.99 ERA with a matching xFIP this season in 12 starts and 65.1 innings. The righty did not pitch in 2022 but he was a moderately effective starter in years past. The Diamondbacks are not a good matchup however, the team is good at limiting strikeouts and Canning is not a top-end 30%+ strikeout pitcher, he is more of a good roughly league-average with upside for more on the right night style of pitcher. This does not look like the right night. Arizona’s projected lineup has a 19.5% strikeout rate collectively this season and they have several premium bats. Geraldo Perdomo is slated to lead off, he has a .392 on-base percentage and is a good table-setter ahead of the top-end hitters the Diamondbacks bring to the plate. Ketel Marte has 15 home runs and has created runs 39% better than average in an excellent season but he remains affordable at $5,400/$3,900 at second base. Pavin Smith slots in third, star outfielder Corbin Carroll seems unlikely to play after experiencing shoulder soreness in his surgically repaired shoulder in the Diamondbacks most recent game. Smith is cheap at $2,900/$2,700 but Carroll is obviously the far better option if he manages to play. Christian Walker has massive power and is not a free-swinger who gives away plate appearances, he costs just $4,800/$3,400. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit a dozen home runs while slashing .271/.323/.487 with a 116 WRC+ and costs just $4,300/$3,000 in the outfield. Emmanuel Rivera, Alek Thomas, Carson Kelly, and Jake McCarthy are playable mix-in values late in the lineup.
The Angels are drawing huge power marks in our home run model and look likely to be one of the slate-leading spots for offense in a matchup against scuffling southpaw Tommy Henry. The lefty has made 11 starts and has a 15.4% strikeout rate in 62.2 innings with a 4.31 ERA and an uglier 5.34 xFIP. Henry has been lucky to be as mediocre as he has been, he should be worse. The lefty has amassed a 10.5% swinging-strike rate but just a 25.3% CSW% and has given up a 4.14% home run rate despite only 30.5% hard hits and 86.5 mph of exit velocity which are both very good marks for contact. Henry is in trouble against the heavily right-handed Angels and their star power. The projected lineup opens with righty outfielder Taylor Ward who has nine home runs this year but hit 23 last season with a .192 ISO. Ward has been a roller coaster at the plate both seasons, he is a good buy at $4,300/$2,800 with direct correlation potential with Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. The superstars sit at 16.74 and 16.89 in our home run model respectively, Ohtani has 29 to lead the league and Trout sits at 17. Brandon Drury was our overall home run pick for the day at 10.90 in the power model, Hunter Renfroe is another good option for a long ball, he has a 15.0 in the home run model and has hit 14 on the season. Drury and Renfroe cost just $4,800/$3,200 and $4,700/$2,900, they are excellent buys in this matchup. Eduardo Escobar adds another quality bat to this team, the switch-hitting veteran has four home runs in 137 plate appearances this year and hit 48 over 2021 and 2022 combined. Luis Rengifo, Chad Wallach, and David Fletcher round out the projected lineup, two of them are playable for right-handed power in small doses and the third is David Fletcher.
Play: Angels bats/stacks aggressively, minor shares of Diamondbacks bats, maybe some Griffin Canning SP2 shares on DraftKings at $8,300.
Update Notes:
Chicago White Sox (-155/5.04) @ Oakland Athletics (+130/4.17)
A matchup against Luis Medina has the White Sox hitters salivating for power potential at the plate. Medina has allowed a massive 5.0% home run rate on 8.1% barrels and a 44.6% hard hit rate with 90.4 mph of exit velocity in his 48.2 innings and seven starts this year. The righty has a 6.84 ERA and 4.88 xFIP and has walked 11.8% while striking out just 20.5% with a 23.7% CSW%. Medina is a major target for bats and the White Sox are looking like a quality option for MLB DFS purposes in stacks tonight. Andrew Benintendi and Tim Anderson are cheap based on struggles through the first half, they sit at $3,000/$2,700 and $3,900/$2,500 and should be considered value options despite season-long searches for quality. Benintendi has been the better of the two with a 100 WRC+ while Anderson has slipped further to just a 49 WRC+ mark. Luis Robert Jr. has 23 home runs and six stolen bases while creating runs 42% better than average and rolling through his breakout first half. Robert is a star in the outfield, he has a 15.2% barrel rate but costs just $4,700/$3,900 on this slate in a great matchup, the DraftKings price is just too low, Robert leads the team at 11.46 in our home run model. Eloy Jimenez has a 9.77 in the home run model with 10 in the books in just 214 opportunities this year. Andrew Vaughn has a good power upside as well, he has a 10.5% barrel rate and 48.5% hard hits this season but costs just $3,200/$3,000 at first base. Yasmani Grandal, Jake Burger, and Gavin Sheets can all offer limited power, Grandal has six home runs and a 100 WRC+ with a .134 ISO, Burger has 17 home runs that all came earlier in the year with a .299 ISO that has been slipping and an already low triple-slash, while Sheets has lefty pop with eight long balls this year. Elvis Andrus still has a White Sox uniform. For now.
The lousy Athletics are facing lefty opener Tanner Banks, who should work between one and three innings in a bullpen game that does not have a named bulk reliever. Banks has thrown 18 innings and made two starts with a 4.50 ERA and 4.42 xFIP while striking out 23%, he is a tough buy at $5,000/$5,700 with a wildly unreliable innings expectation, even against the Athletics. At the same time, Oakland’s lineup is not overly appealing with a 4.17-run implied total. Esteury Ruiz is back atop the lineup in the projected form, the rookie is Oakland’s one good story this year and deserves the opportunity to chase 100 stolen bases, he has 40 in 348 plate appearances. Aledmy Dias, Ryan Noda, Carlos Perez, and Brent Rooker are the team’s core of quality, such as it is. Noda is the best of the bunch, he gets on base at a good .379 clip and has power but strikes out far too much at 33.4%. Rooker strikes out too much and generally lacks quality, his 13 home runs look familiar from writing about him in late May, Perez is a cheap catcher, and Diaz is a cheap infielder. Jace Peterson has cheap left-handed pop but is very inconsistent, Shea Langeliers is a low-owned cheap catcher with power, he has nine home runs but sits below the Mendoza line for the year, and Jonah Bride rounds out the lineup with Tony Kemp.
Play: White Sox bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Tampa Bay Rays (-121/3.95) @ Seattle Mariners (+111/3.64)
The final game of the slate is a pitching duel between premium rookie hurler Bryce Miller and outstanding lefty ace Shane McClanahan, who leads our entire pitching board in the final game of the night. Scores are going to have to wait until everything is done in Seattle before we know how this slate is going to land, hometown Miller projects well despite the presence of the Rays at the plate in his pitcher’s park. The righty has a 3.88 ERA with a 4.13 xFIP and 22.5% strikeout rate while walking just five percent so far this season. At $9,200/$9,100, Miller’s efficacy as a DFS option is somewhat questionable, but he has the talent to pitch through the ridiculous Rays and find a few strikeouts from the bunch that has a 23.4% strikeout rate in the projected lineup. At the same time, McClanahan has a fairly gigantic projection on the back of a big strikeout opportunity against a projected Mariners lineup with a 27.5% strikeout rate for the season. All of Seattle’s key hitters strike out at aggressive rates, they have power but McClanahan has a 26.7% strikeout rate with a 2.23 ERA and 3.74 xFIP, he is more than equipped to handle this lineup for $11,000 on both sites. McClanahan is a top pitching option in a good spot, he makes plenty of sense to be the most highly-owned starter on both sites despite the lofty price tag.
Both the Rays at 3.95 and the Mariners at 3.64 implied runs are limited in comparison to where they can be found in other matchups. The visiting Rays are the easier click, they have been the far more productive team and are in a marginally better matchup against Miller. Yandy Diaz is an All-Star with 12 home runs and a 164 WRC+ in 305 plate appearances for $4,900/$3,800 at first base on DraftKings with third base still in play on FanDuel. Wander Franco is a star shortstop who has nine home runs and 25 stolen bases at a fair star-level price at his position. Luke Raley has hit 13 cheap left-handed home runs but is one of the more popular Rays hitters when he lands third in the lineup. Randy Arozarena has 14 homers and nine steals with a 153 WRC+, 15.2% barrels and 49.5% hard hits this season. The outfielder is a good option when stacking Rays but he is pricey at $5,900/$4,000 in a tough matchup. Isaac Paredes has 13 home runs, Josh Lowe has 11, and Jose Siri has 15, have we mentioned that this team has been ridiculous this year? All of those are playable options, as are late lineup players like Taylor Walls and Christian Bethancourt when stacking Rays, but this is not the best spot to look in Tampa Bay’s direction. On the other side, the Mariners are looking even more limited against McClanahan. The lefty will face JP Crawford to lead things off, the shortstop limits strikeouts to 18.9% and walks 14.2% of the time to set the table but that is off-theme for this squad. Julio Rodriguez has a 26.1% strikeout rate but star-caliber qualities with 13 home runs and 18 stolen bases, Ty France is the other good option for limiting strikeouts at just 17.3%, everyone behind him is in the mid-20s to 30+% range. Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez have power in the heart of the order but strike out at 32.6% and 28.3% ahead of Tom Murphy who is at 31.9% in his small sample of 91 plate appearances. AJ Pollock, Dylan Moore, and Jose Caballero round out the lineup with Cal Raleigh and Jarred Kelenic taking seats with the lefty on the hill in the projected lineup, though one or both seem likely to play.
Play: Shane McClanahan, Bryce Miller, only very minor shares of hedge bats on either side
Update Notes:
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