The MLB DFS main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel features just six games tonight, with a bit of a thin pitching pool. The list of available starters has plenty of talent at the top end in the elite arm of Shohei Ohtani, who will be wildly popular on both sites, and Julio Urias joins him with a strong projection against a weak club, but the balance of the remaining playable starters are somewhat less than, the arms in the middle, proven or young, are all facing tough matchups in tough ballparks, while the bottom of the board offers very little in terms of bargain basement value plays. This has the makings of a slate that requires a bit of a concentrated pitching pool with a broad spread of coverage at the plate. The shorter slate does offer the opportunity to choose to occupy specific positions with a bit more reliability, but it will be critical to focus on public popularity expectations to gain ground over the field on what should be a directionally similar night of lineup constructions.
Don’t miss our Suggested Stacks feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
Join us at 4:15 ET for a rundown on today’s slate.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 8/3/23
Houston Astros (-102/4.52) @ New York Yankees (-106/4.57)
The Astros land in New York with their full lineup intact and a good pitcher on the mound, the Yankees at least have a capable pitcher in the form of Clarke Schmidt, unfortunately, their lineup is what it is. The Astros will be facing a righty who has a 4.39 ERA and 4.41 xFIP over his 21 starts and 104.2 innings. Schmidt has worked to a 21.9% strikeout rate with a 1.32 WHIP but a solid 6.4% walk rate, he is a roughly league-average starter on the right day but he has allowed a bit too much premium contact which could be problematic against these Astros in Yankee Stadium. Schmidt has yielded a 3.53% home run rate on 8.8% barrels and 43.4% hard hits with 90.4 mph of exit velocity on average. The righty costs $7,200/$7,500, he projects in the middle of a thin pitching slate and is a playable value option in a bad matchup with a relatively low ceiling. Schmidt does not strike out enough hitters and he does not gain much ground on depth, he is rarely allowed to complete the sixth inning. For similar pricing in an also-difficult matchup, we slightly prefer Bryan Woo for similar pricing on both sites, but Schmidt is a playable value dart. Jose Altuve has star power at second base, the diminutive keystone has never been short on home run potential, he has a 5.42 in the model and seven on the board, adding seven stolen bases, in just 168 plate appearances this year. Altuve is a good starting point in Astros stacks for $5,500/$4,000. Jeremy Pena slots in for $4,500/$2,600 at shortstop, he has underperformed on the season at 86 WRC+ but does have 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases. Kyle Tucker has premium left-handed power that plays extremely well in this ballpark, he and teammate Yordan Alvarez have a significant upside for long balls through this entire series with the short porch in right field. Tucker costs $5,700/$3,600, and Alvarez is the team’s superstar at $6,000/$4,300. Third baseman Alex Bregman slots in between the two outfielders, he has 18 home runs on the season which is the same total as Tucker, and Alvarez is one ahead of them both with 19 in half the plate appearances. Jose Abreu is cheap at first base for $3,700/$2,800 and he is up to an 81 WRC+ with 10 home runs and a .241/.297/.356 triple-slash, almost all of which has come over the past two months after a cold stretch that wrapped its way back around to last August. Chas McCormick has been dynamite this season, he has 15 home runs and 12 stolen bases with a 155 WRC+ in 270 plate appearances for just $4,100/$3,400. Corey Julks and Martin Maldonado round out the lineup as playable mix-ins who contribute from time to time.
Astros righty Cristian Javier has had his own issues with allowing too much premium contact, though his home run rate sits at a marginally OK 3.34% for the season. Javier has allowed a 10.2% barrel rate with 37.4% hard hits and an average exit velocity of 88.9 mph. The righty has also lost a lot of strikeouts year over year, he worked at 33.2% over 148.2 innings in 25 starts last season, this year he has dropped all the way to 22.9% with an 11.7% swinging-strike rate and 25.2% CSW% down from 13.8% and 28.3% last year. Javier worked at 30.7% strikeouts in his hybrid role in 2021, there is a concerning loss of about eight points of strikeouts, and he has been less effective overall with a 4.33 ERA and 5.01 xFIP on the season. Javier has been far more hittable this year, he has lost velocity and spin on both his fastball and slider, his two primary pitches that represent 90% of the pitches he throws. Second baseman Gleyber Torres has positional value with his power and ability to correlate with Aaron Judge and the Yankees’ power core but he is miscast as a leadoff hitter in general. Torres has 16 home runs and nine stolen bases but just a .322 on-base percentage, he has created runs seven percent better than average and has been excellent at putting the ball in play with just a 13.8% strikeout rate. Judge slots in with the top power bat in baseball, he has 20 home runs in just 234 plate appearances with a 31.3% barrel rate and 64.1% hard-hit rate on the season. Anthony Rizzo slots in for cheap prices at $3,900/$2,700 at first base, the lefty has power but has struggled through much of the season and he sits at .244/.328/.378 with a 99 WRC+ and 12 home runs. Giancarlo Stanton mashed his 15th home run of the season in the Yankees’ victory over Tampa Bay last night, he has a .203/.277/.448 triple-slash with a .245 ISO in another injury-marred season. DJ LeMahieu has been bad this year, he sits 14% below average and his total lack of quality at the plate has been a major part of the team’s problems. LeMahieu is a playable part given his cheap pricing and triple-position eligibility on FanDuel but expectations should be kept low for a player who has simply not been the same hitter for the past few seasons as he was from 2013-2020. Jake Bauers has good lefty pop with a 7.51 in our home run model and nine long balls in just 179 opportunities, Harrison Bader and Anthony Volpe contribute infrequent counting stats but they can score on the right night, Volpe has 14 home runs and 20 stolen bases, and Bader has seven homers and 10 steals in a smaller sample. Kyle Higashioka has cheap undervalued power behind the plate and is usable in stacks of Yankees.
Play: Astros bats/stacks, Yankees bats/stacks. Cristian Javier and Clarke Schmidt both in smaller portions as OK mid-range options.
Update Notes:
Pittsburgh Pirates (+116/4.08) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-125/4.51)
The Pirates’ rookie-laden lineup is facing Adrian Houser in a matchup that is pushing an interesting collective fantasy point projection average in the direction of the young hitters. Houser has a 4.43 ERA and 4.56 xFIP over 67 innings in 12 starts and he has struck out just 17.4% of opposing hitters while allowing a 7.7% walk rate with a 1.57 WHIP that amounts to far too many opportunities. Houser has a 6.6% swinging-strike rate with a 23% CSW% on the season, he looks targetable with Pirates bats in this spot for cheap team stack prices. Pittsburgh ranks fourth on our board for fantasy points and they land third for FanDuel points-per-dollar value and first on DraftKings. The team is projected to get Ke’Bryan Hayes back in the lineup, he is slashing .248/.285/.388 with a 79 WRC+ on the season but has a capable Major League bat, in theory. Hays has a 46.8% hard-hit rate on the season but he has hit just five home runs, he hit seven last year and six the year before but should have more pop to offer for $3,500/$2,700 at third base on the right night. Bryan Reynolds is an underperforming star outfielder, he has 12 home runs and eight stolen bases with a 105 WRC+ in 403 plate appearances and is priced down at $4,500/$3,400. Andrew McCutchen and Jack Suwinski are good options in the outfield, the veteran McCutchen has a 119 WRC+ and gets on base at a .384 clip with a bit of power left in his aging bat, and Suwinski has been the team’s leader for power with 21 home runs on the season. The outfielder adds seven stolen bases and has a 123 WRC+ that leads the team. Henry Davis has the most plate appearances among the team’s rookies at 149 opportunities, he has four home runs, three stolen bases, and a 95 WRC+ in the small sample and is expected to perform at this level. Davis is a decent add-on for $2,900 on both sites. Endy Rodriguez has a home run on the board in his first 44 plate appearances in the Show, Alfonso Rivas slots in with 287 plate appearances in the books from last year, he had an 82 WRC+ with six steals and three homers, this year he has a 77 WRC+ over his 17 opportunities. Liover Peguero has been a sneaky power bat late in this lineup in his first couple of weeks in the league, Peguero has three home runs in the microscopic sample, the infielder is expected to hit for power at the MLB level and costs just $2,600 on both sites, he adds positioning at second base to his shortstop eligibility on DraftKings. Alika Williams rounds out the lineup, he has a .250/.294/.313 triple-slash with a 66 WRC+ in his first 17 opportunities and is more of a lower-end hit-and-speed prospect.
Pirates righty Mitch Keller was in excellent form early in the season but has cracked and crumbled as things have progressed through 2023 and now is just having another Mitch Keller type of season. The righty has allowed six home runs in his last three starts, though he did strike out eight in 5.2 innings against the Phillies in his most recent outing and seven against the Angels in a 5.0-inning appearance that also saw him allow three of the long balls. Overall, Keller has a 3.97 ERA and 3.69 xFIP with a 25.7% strikeout rate. He has allowed a 9.7% barrel rate but just 32.8% hard hits and a 3.01% home run rate that sill looks OK despite climbing in recent games. Keller is a playable part of the slate with a third-ranked projection on the short pitching board, he costs $9,100/$10,200 with the hope that the FanDuel price will keep his ownership somewhat low. The righty is facing a Brewers team that ranks 11th out of 12 by collective fantasy point projections and 11th for power in our model as well today. Milwaukee has a 94 WRC+ that ranks 24th against right-handed pitching this season. The team’s collective ISO in the split sits at just .152 and they have a 21.6% strikeout rate that is unexceptional in either direction. Keller has clear downsides but he projects well and looks like an important part of the slate on both sites, but taking a hedge position with at least a few Brewers stacks may be a good idea despite their low rankings. Christian Yelich is the team’s star, the outfielder has 16 home runs and 22 stolen bases and sits 29% better than average for run creation in 455 plate appearances. Yelich is inexpensive for his ceiling at $5,600/$3,600 and he can be deployed both in stacks and as a sneaky one-off option. William Contreras has value behind the plate with his strong position in the batting order leading to more plate appearances than the typical catcher may see. He has a strong bat with a .275/.347/.449 triples-slash and 116 WRC+ on the season. Carlos Santana has power from both sides of the plate, the former Pirates first baseman costs just $3,800/$3,300 and has 13 homers on the season but just a 95 WRC+. Willy Adames has premium power at shortstop, he has 17 home runs this season but just an 82 WRC+. Sal Frelick is a high-end young outfielder, he costs $3,900/$3,000 and has a home run on the board in his first 41 chances in the Show. Mark Canha is a medium talent in the outfield, he was acquired from the Mets at the deadline and is a playable part for cheap salary in this lineup. Andruw Monasterio has a 111 WRC+ over 134 opportunities, Brice Turang sits at just 63 over his 279 chances, and Joey Wiemer adds a playable skillset to the ninth spot with 13 homers and 11 stolen bases on the season but just an 83 WRC+.
Play: Pirates bats/stacks, Mitch Keller, a few stacks of Brewers are OK as a hedge for a Keller position.
Update Notes:
Minnesota Twins (-122/4.75) @ St. Louis Cardinals (+113/4.35)
Lefty Matthew Liberatore has a 6.75 ERA and 5.79 xFIP with a limited 13.9% strikeout rate and an inflated 10.1% walk rate in 32 innings and eight starts this season. The southpaw has a 1.84 WHIP with a 6.9% swinging-strike rate and 22.7% CSW%. Liberatore has been getting away with too much premium contact, his 9.6% barrel rate and 42.6% hard-hit rate with 90.7 mph of exit velocity have amounted to just a 1.27% home run rate on 12.1 degrees of launch angle. Liberatore allowed more home runs last season, he struck out a few more in his 34.2 innings and seven starts, but he has never fully landed at this level as an effective option. The lefty is not in our plans on FanDuel for $6,200, he is the weakest of dart throws as a $5,600 SP2 on DraftKings but we are not fans of the play and he ranks ninth out of 12 starters on the board. Minnesota’s lineup pushes strikeout potential in the direction of opposing pitchers, but Liberatore has not shown the acumen to capitalize on it, the Twins look like the more playable side of the matchup and they rank in the middle of the board at sixth for fantasy points and sixth for home run potential with a second-ranked value mark on FanDuel and tied for first on DraftKings. Carlos Correa opens things at an inexpensive $4,700/$3,000, the shortstop has been a shadow of the player who had 22 home runs and a 140 WRC+ in 590 plate appearances with a .291/.366/.467 triple-slash for this team last year, but he is a playable part for power and he has a very long track record of quality to lean into when evaluating his season. Donovan Solano has an effective hit tool and OK mid-range power, he has a 119 WRC+ in 295 plate appearances this season and fits into first or third base for $2,700 on DraftKings while adding second base to the mix for $2,400 on FanDuel. Byron Buxton has 17 home runs and nine stolen bases on the season, the outfielder is a star who is underpriced for a dramatic dip in performance this season. Buxton is slashing just .207/.294/.438 but he does still have premium power potential on any given slate and is carrying a .230 ISO into action tonight. Buston is affordable at $5,200/$3,200 but he has been wildly inconsistent and unreliable this season. Kyle Farmer is a sneaky-good power option in the heart of the lineup for just $2,800/$2,600, he has eligibility at only third base on DraftKings but adds both second and shortstop eligibility on the blue site. Farmer hit 14 home runs last year and 16 the season before and he is rarely overly popular in stacks of Twins. Jorge Polanco is a premium power hitter at second base and he has eligibility at third for just $4,400 on DraftKings. Ryan Jeffers, Michael A. Taylor, and Matt Wallner all offer cheap power potential late in the lineup. Jeffers has five homers in 195 plate appearances for cheap prices behind the plate, Taylor has hit 12 unowned home runs this season but sits at 86 WRC+, and Wallner has ripped six homers in just 81 plate appearances this year with another two in 65 tries in the Show last year.
Cardinals hitters are in play on a short slate but the team’s collective fantasy point projections rank just ninth out of 12 options on our stacks board in a tough matchup against veteran righty Sonny Gray. The starter lands fifth on the pitching board, slightly ahead of Javier and Schmidt but below the top-tier options. Gray has a difficult matchup ahead of him with quality up and down the Cardinals lineup, but he has been mostly very good this season, pitching to a 3.22 ERA and 3.83 xFIP in 21 starts and 117.1 innings. The veteran has a 1.27 WHIP on 8.9% walks, he allows a few too many opportunities but he is able to punch his way out of jams with a 23.3% strikeout rate and 11.1% swinging-strike rate and he has been spectacular at limiting power this season with just a 0.81% home run rate and 6.6% barrels. Gray is a playable option at $9,400/$10,100, in a total vacuum he is a better option for the lower salary on DraftKings, but there is a possibility for his high price tag on the blue site to drive down his popularity, which would have the opposite impact on his appeal in our lineups, the lower-owned the starter goes the more we will want to include him. Lars Nootbaar should receive the lion’s share of plate appearances on the strong side of platoon splits with his stout lefty power and excellent speed providing potential for individual scoring and strong correlation with the team’s stars. Paul Goldschmidt has an 11.9% barrel rate and a 52.1% hard-hit rate on the year, he has hit 18 home runs and stolen nine bases while creating runs 28% better than average for the season. Nolan Gorman hits between Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in the team’s power core, he is tied with the star third baseman with 22 home runs each. Gorman is a high-end left-handed power hitter at second base, he costs just $4,100/$3,500 in a good discount on DraftKings and he adds eligibility at third base on the blue site. Willson Contreras checks in with a .249/.344/.423 triple-slash, 11 home runs, and a 114 WRC+, he is a fine buy at catcher when stacking Cardinals. Tyler O’Neill hit his fourth home run of the season last night, he has been limited to just 148 plate appearances with another injury-riddled campaign, but he is a significant source of home run power when fully healthy. For $3,700/$2,600, O’Neill is quite cheap for his ceiling. Tommy Edman is back in the Cardinals lineup, he has eligibility at shortstop and in the outfield on DraftKings and adds second base positioning on FanDuel for just $3,300/$2,800. Edman is a productive player for counting stats with inconsistent run-creation marks over the past few seasons. Jordan Walker has a 113 WRC+ over his first 264 plate appearances in the Show, he entered the season as one of baseball’s top prospects and has played well on the whole at .270/.333/.436 with 10 home runs in the short sample. Walker has not gotten the attention that many other premium rookies have this season, but he is a fine option in the outfield for cheap prices. Dylan Carlson has five home runs with an 88 WRC+ in 236 opportunities and is also cheap late in the lineup.
Play: Sonny Gray, Twins bats/stacks as a mid-ranked points option and premium value option, Cardinals bats in smaller shares
Update Notes:
Cincinnati Reds (+146/4.70) @ Chicago Cubs (-159/5.92)
The game in Chicago looks like one to watch again this evening with the potential for fireworks on both sides. The rolling Cubs are sitting at a slate-leading 5.92-run implied total in Vegas in their matchup against pushover starter Luke Weaver, and the Reds land at 4.70 implied runs against veteran Jameson Taillon. Between the two, only Taillon looks remotely playable. The righty lands below the midpoint of the pitching board by fantasy point projections but he is a better option than his opponent, Liberatore, Sears against the Dodgers, and Houser and he is very cheap at $6,200 on DraftKings. For $8,500 on the FanDuel slate, Taillon is far more difficult to trust, a few shares on the short slate are fine to differentiate lineups but the value is off with the pitcher carrying such a high price against a team that is looking very strong in our projections. Taillon has a 5.46 ERA with a 4.75 xFIP and he has a 20.1% strikeout rate with a 1.37 WHIP while allowing 10.5% barrels and a 3.66% home run rate in 89 innings and 18 outings. The Reds lineup should open with Elly De La Cruz for $6,100/$3,700. The popular rookie has seven home runs and 17 stolen bases but just a 98 WRC+ and a 33.5% strikeout rate over his first 212 plate appearances. De La Cruz is not overpriced from a talent perspective, but he is still raw and there are definite holes in his game for the high price tag on DraftKings, his FanDuel price is far more workable and he offers strong eligibility at both third base and shortstop on both sites. TJ Freidl has been good in his role over 352 plate appearances, the outfielder has a .283/.353/.434 triple-slash with eight home runs and 17 stolen bases, though the power is a bit of an outlier for a player with a two percent barrel rate and 26.2% hard-hit rate. Friedl is a good option for on-base opportunities and correlated scoring for cheap pricing. Matt McLain has been excellent in 310 plate appearances, he has a 10.4% barrel rate with 11 home runs and eight stolen bases while creating runs 36% better than average to lead the team. McLain is another multi-position option at second base and shortstop for $5,900/$3,900. Jake Fraley has solid left-handed power for $4,300/$3,500 in the outfield, he has 15 home runs and 19 stolen bases with a 114 WRC+ in 323 opportunities. Spencer Steer has been very good all year, over 445 plate appearances he is slashing .272/.357/.463 with a .190 ISO and 116 WRC+ with 16 home runs and nine stolen bases and he has struck out just 19.6% of the time while walking at a 10.3% clip that should play well against Taillon. Joey Votto is our overall home run pick for the day with an 11.68 in the home run model and 11 long balls in just 134 plate appearances on the season. Votto is basically a three true outcomes player at this point in his career but his power is undeniable and the lefty first baseman is inexpensive at $4,300/$3,100 tonight. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has one home run with a .260/.302/.360 triple-slash to start his career, and things will go up from here. Will Benson is a good outfielder who has been a strong play late in this lineup again and again this year. Over 191 plate appearances, Benson is slashing .274/.377/.518 with seven home runs, 10 stolen bases, and a 135 WRC+ on 11.2% barrels and a 14.1% walk rate. Luke Maile is a serviceable bat at catcher for a cheap price when stacking Reds.
The Cubs are facing Luke Weaver, who has a 6.80 ERA and 5.06 xFIP in 18 starts and 86 innings this season. Weaver’s home run rate sits at a massive 5.60% and he has allowed a 10.8% barrel rate while striking out a limited 17% and walking 7.1%. The righty is not a good option on the mound, he is the bottom of the pitching board for $6,000 on either site. Mike Tauchman has earned more love than we have shown him in this space over 229 plate appearances. The cheap outfielder has been a rock for the Cubs when he gets opportunities atop the lineup, his .373 on-base percentage plays very well with the team’s theme of creating opportunities and he has hit for a bit of power while running and playing outstanding defense in the outfield. Tauchman has six home runs in the mid-sized sample, he has created runs a terrific 22% better than average and costs just $3,400/$3,200 ahead of the team’s primary hitters. Nico Hoerner has stolen 26 bases and costs $4,800/$3,300 at second base on DraftKings with shortstop eligibility on FanDuel. Hoerner has created runs exactly at league average for the season and he does not have overly reliable power, his eight home runs do not fully jibe with a 2.2% barrel rate and 33.8% hard hits but he had 10 on a similar contact profile last year. Ian Happ is a strong source of scoring and he has individual upside at the plate. Happ is suddenly up to 12 home runs in 458 plate appearances, his primary attribute is a strong nose for getting on base, he has a .378 on-base percentage and he has created runs 20% better than average in the heart of the lineup at cheap prices. For $3,300/$3,200 Happ is a strong bargain on both sites. Cody Bellinger has been the team’s star this season, he has come roaring back to life and rescued his career with a .316/.368/.541 triple-slash, a .224 ISO, 141 WRC+, 16 home runs, and 14 stolen bases. Bellinger played so well while healthy that the Cubs have been surprising contenders and they held onto him while adding parts to make a run at the trade deadline. Bellinger remains affordable at $5,200/$4,000. Dansby Swanson has 16 home runs with a 118 WRC+, he has hit more than 25 homers in each of the past two seasons and was underperforming until a recent power surge. Swanson is a star shortstop when things are going right, he costs just $4,600/$3,200 despite his long track record and a 13.2% barrel rate this season which is up from the 10.8% he posted while blasting 25 homers last year. Christopher Morel has 17 home runs with a .270 ISO and has hit a homer from every spot in the batting order this season. For $5,000/$4,100, Morel is a bit expensive on the FanDuel slate, but he continues to provide strong scoring and he fills three positions on the site. Seiya Suzuki has a 98 WRC+ in a letdown of a season but he is a capable bat at a low price late in the lineup. Jeimer Candelario has been great since joining the team at the deadline, he has 16 home runs and a 129 WRC+ overall in another good season at the plate. Yan Gomes is a hard-hitting catcher at a low price on both sites.
Play: Reds bats/stacks, Cubs bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Seattle Mariners (+136/3.66) @ Los Angeles Angels (-148/4.43)
The second-lowest implied team total of the day, by a wide margin, goes to the Seattle Mariners at just 3.66 in Vegas. The team is facing superstar Shohei Ohtani who tops the pitching board for $11,000/$10,400. Ohtani is sure to be spectacularly popular on this slate, his 32% strikeout rate with a 3.43 ERA and 3.52 xFIP over 120.2 innings in 20 starts is easily the most targetable pitching line of the day and he has all-universe talent both on the mound and at the plate. Ohtani has walked a few too many this season at 10.2% and he has allowed some premium contact with a 3.69% home run rate coming on 10.3% barrels with a 36.5% hard-hit rate that is just fine. The righty superstar has a slate-leading projection, though he lands less than a point above the Dodgers’ starter in our model. Ohtani is the leading pitching option of the day, but if he is pressing ownership in the direction of half of all lineups, an undercut to the field makes some sense in this situation. The Mariners do not offer much in the way of an obstacle, they are totaled so low in Vegas for good reason, not the least of which is their 25.4% collective strikeout rate for the projected lineup. JP Crawford slots into the top spot and fills shortstop for just $3,600/$3,000. Crawford has an 18.8% strikeout rate, one of the better marks on the free-swinging team. He has created runs 26% better than average with nine home runs this season and provides a bridge to power-hitting options like Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh, and Teoscar Hernandez. Rodriguez is the best overall player in the bunch with 17 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 107 WRC+ on the season. Suarez has 15 home runs, Raleigh has 17, and Hernandez adds 16, but they are all flawed hitters who do not sequence well and strike out too much. That will be offset in the new version of the lineup that has Ty France and Dominic Canzone slotted between Raleigh and Hernandez. Both players are striking out far less aggressively than their teammates, France has had a down season overall but is at 101 WRC+ while Canzone has had just 49 plate appearances but is expected to hit. Mike Ford adds another hard-hitting left-handed bat for a cheap price, he has 11 home runs in 143 plate appearances. Josh Rojas closes out the lineup with a 58 WRC+ over 220 plate appearances, he is a mix-in option when stacking Mariners in a bad spot.
The Angels will be facing right-handed rookie Bryan Woo, who checks in with a 4.96 ERA and 4.09 xFIP after a few recent bumps in the road. Woo has a 25.8% strikeout rate with a terrific 12.2% swinging-strike rate in his first 49 innings and 10 starts but he has given up some premium contact of late and has a 3.83% home run rate on 7.3% barrels overall. The righty worked just five innings in his most recent start, despite pitching fairly well overall he oddly struck out zero Diamondbacks hitters while walking two and allowing three runs on seven hits. He allowed two home runs in each of the two starts prior to that outing, striking out seven Blue Jays but only four Twins and allowing too many earned runs both times out, those bumps followed a run of six strong starts that fill out most of the pitcher’s visible quality in stats. Woo is a good option at a very low price, he is facing a tough Angels lineup with plenty of power but for $7,500/$7,900 he is absolutely worth a few shares and is better than a value-based dart throw on the mound. Woo is a truly talented young pitcher who will be facing a lineup that has a 23.7% strikeout rate collectively in its projected form. Luis Rengifo leads off the new version of the Angels lineup, he has a 96 WRC+ in 318 plate appearances and has never been overly reliable at reaching first base, but he does have good power in his bat which we would prefer to access at low ownership later in the lineup. Rengifo picks up a shot an extra plate appearance in this role however, and he has appeal for low prices at second base on DraftKings and three positions on FanDuel. Ohtani is not available as a hitter on either site but he exists in the true Angels lineup, he has a good chance of soaking up MLB DFS points that will be inaccessible in stacks of Angels but he does provide correlation opportunities to power hitters behind him if they drive him in and collect an RBI. CJ Cron has excellent right-handed power with 11 home runs in his 237 opportunities in an injury-shortened season. Mike Moustakas has returned to form and has nine homers with a marginally good triple-slash and 99 WRC+ in 244 opportunities. Hunter Renfroe has massive power but only 17 home runs this season. He hit 29 last year and 31 the season before and is an excellent any-given-slate option. Mickey Moniak has 11 home runs and a .249 ISO with a .317/.349/.566 triple-slash in his 215 opportunities, Randal Grichuk has provided similar quality at .311/.367/.502 with nine homers in 275 tries, mostly while with Colorado, and Matt Thaiss is a sneaky hard-hitting catcher who has six home runs in 253 plate appearances with a 40.5% hard-hit rate and 9.5% barrel rate. Zach Neto has a good bat for cheap prices but he has been up and down in his first year in the Show, his 103 WRC+ is playable for $2,800/$2,900 at shortstop but the Angels are a lower-priority stack without Ohtani.
Play: Shohei Ohtani, Bryan Woo, bats on either side only in small portions
Update Notes:
Oakland Athletics (+256/3.17) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-288/5.46)
The low-end Athletics are carrying by far the lowest implied team total on the Vegas board at just 3.17 runs against Dodgers lefty Julio Urias. The starter ranks second to Ohtani on the pitching board by less than a point, he is a terrific option on the slate tonight and should be extremely popular for $9,800/$8,800, his FanDuel price is simply too low in this spot. Urias has a 22.6% strikeout rate with a 4.98 ERA but a 4.38 xFIP over 15 starts and 81.1 innings. The lefty has allowed a 4.69% home run rate on just 32% hard hits and 8.7% barrels, he is a flyball-oriented pitcher who makes loud mistakes when he makes them. Last season his home run rate was 3.34% with a 2.16 ERA and 3.81 xFIP while posting a 24.1% strikeout rate in 175 innings over 31 starts, he was even more effective the season before. Urias is a quality pitcher who sometimes does not make it deep into ballgames, he has completed the sixth inning fairly reliably this year, making it that far in eight of his 15 outings, but he only worked in the seventh inning twice, completing it both times, and he came out in the after five to 5.2 innings four times without including his two three-inning starts after returning from injury. Overall, Urias is a good pitcher in a great spot, the Athletics have a collective 85 WRC+ against lefties this season and their strikeout rate sits at 24.2% with a .127 ISO in the split. All of Oakland’s best hitters, with the exception of recently promoted rookie Zack Gelof, and the April version of Brent Rooker, are left-handed. Esteury Ruiz is back in the projected lineup, the rookie has 43 stolen bases on the season and no shot at 100, but he should be a great source of bonus points whenever he reaches first base. Ruiz left us after 369 plate appearances over which he was slashing .257/.310/.329, his hit and on-base skills need polish. Gelof slots in second, he has an 8.42 in our home run model with four in just 68 plate appearances in the Show. Rooker is third in the projected lineup, he has 18 home runs in 345 plate appearances, more than half of which came before May 1st. Jordan Diaz has seven home runs with a 104 WRC+ for a cheap price in the infield, Ramon Laureano is a veteran outfielder with a bit of pop on the right side of the plate, he has six home runs in 242 plate appearances this season and hit 13 last year and 14 the year before in 383 and 378 plate appearances respectively. Shea Langeliers is a hard-hitting right-handed catcher with a limited skill set at the plate. He has 11 cheap low-owned home runs and is a positional play for cheap pricing. Aledmys Diaz, JJ Bleday, and Nick Allen are the bottom of the projected lineup but the team may give any mix of their young call-ups a shot against the lefty despite same-handed matchups. In any form, the Oakland stack is a low-end option.
The Dodgers are a fantastic option on most slates, they have a high-octane lineup with tons of power and several star-caliber players at a mix of positions. The team is facing JP Sears tonight, they rank second by fantasy point projections and fifth for home run potential while landing sixth on FanDuel and ninth on DraftKings for points-per-dollar value. Sears is not a pushover on the mound, but he does not project very well in our model in this spot. The lefty is cheap at $6,800/$8,200, he would make for a moderately realistic dart throw as an SP2 on DraftKings, despite the brutal matchup he is probably more talented with a higher “right night” ceiling than any of Weaver, Houser, Liberatore, Taillon, and possibly Schmidt. The Dodgers are just not a good team to target with pitchers, their best players are all extremely good at avoiding strikeouts, waiting out walks, and blasting their pitch when they get it. Sears has a solid but unspectacular 22.3% strikeout rate with an 11.5% swinging-strike rate and he has been very good at keeping the bases clean with a 5.3% walk rate and 1.05 WHIP but his 4.09 ERA is betrayed by both a 5.00 xFIP and his 5.26% home run rate on 12.3% barrels. The Dodgers 5.46-run implied total is second to the Cubs, they are a priority stack but they are likely to be popular despite very hefty price tags. Mookie Betts is slashing .282/.385/.579 while creating runs 57% better than average with 29 long balls and seven stolen bases providing multi-category excellence for MLB DFS purposes. Betts is a second baseman or an outfielder on DraftKings while FanDuel still allows him to also slot in at shortstop giving the superstar outstanding flexibility. Freddie Freeman is a star first baseman, he has 21 home runs and 14 stolen bases in fantastic output of counting stats and he is slashing .338/.416/.586 with a 169 WRC+ in 486 opportunities in what is arguably an MVP season. Will Smith has 13 home runs and a 135 WRC+ as a leading catcher option on any slate. Smith costs $5,600/$3,600 as the cheapest of the team’s three stars up top, he is playable on both sites despite not needing catchers on the FanDuel slate. Amed Rosario is an interesting option with mid-range power and speed in the heart of the lineup since being acquired from Cleveland. Rosario has an 89 WRC+ overall with four home runs and nine stolen bases, he has done very little at the plate but he offsets price and popularity at a premium position for $3,900/$2,900. Max Muncy has 27 home runs and should not have issues with this lefty, he has an 18.2% barrel rate and 48.8% hard-hit rate with a 117 WRC+ this season. Chris Taylor has major power against lefties and he fills multiple positions for a cheap price on both sites, James Outman has a powerful lefty bat ahead of lower-end Enrique Herandez and Miguel Rojas who close out the projected Dodgers lineup.
Play: Julio Urias, Dodgers bats/stacks
Update Notes:
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