Tonight’s tiny three-game MLB DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel features one lopsided game and two close contests on the board in Vegas, with the Mets -207 as the biggest favorite on the board. New York is pulling in a 5.39-run implied total that outpaces all of the other options by about a half-run, they will be crushingly popular on such a small slate. On a slate of this nature, getting to a broad spread of options and embracing the uncomfortable is the only clear path to the top of the standings. While the world is focused only on a few specific players, branching out and rostering options from lower in batting orders or on teams carrying lower expectations can be a strong point of differentiation. The pitching options on tonight’s slate range from good to playable, so there are easy ways to mix and match starters and hitting combinations to create enough of a spread, even with such limited overall selections available.
Don’t miss our Suggested Stacks feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
Join us at 4:30ET for a rundown on today’s slate:
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 7/27/23
Washington Nationals (+188/3.72) @ New York Mets (-207/5.39)
The Nationals are the biggest underdogs of the day but that does not mean that they are unplayable. With only six teams available, everyone is on the board to some degree, but getting to potentially under-owned situations can pay major dividends when the full weight of expectations is in other spots. The Nationals are the top contrarian option on the board, they are facing righty Kodai Senga and will almost certainly be the lowest-owned overall team of the day. Senga has been sharp his first year in the Show, he has a 3.27 ERA and a 3.71 xFIP over 99 innings in 18 starts, but he is not entirely without warts. Senga’s strikeout rate is an elite 29.7% but he walks 11.9% of opposing hitters to get there, frequently pitching inefficiently and getting himself into jams, on the wrong night that can go haywire and it is that scenario that would pay off shares of Nationals hitters. Of course, Senga is very much an option on this slate as well, he has the top projection in the pitching pool and is a dominant strikeout artist on the right night. Getting to shares of both sides of the situation is advisable, Senga is likely to be the most popular pitcher on both sites, so rostering him is a must but undercutting the field should be both easy and a good idea, targeting a wide swath of the field with shares of Nationals hitters makes sense in a portion of remaining lineups. The focus hitters for Washington include leadoff man CJ Abrams, who has a .303 on-base percentage and a 95 WRC+ but a .397 on-base percentage and 157 WRC+ since moving to the leadoff role. Abrams is a key piece in a stack of Nationals hitters for $3,900/$3,200 at shortstop. Lane Thomas has 16 home runs, 12 stolen bases, a team-leading 122 WRC+ and a .293/.341/.486 triple-slash, he is far and away the best player on this version of this team. Jeimer Candelario costs $4,400/$3,300 which is a reasonable sticker for a hitter with 16 home runs and a .228 ISO over his 406 plate appearances this season. Candelario has already matched his home run total from 626 opportunities in 2021 and surpassed the total that he posted in 467 chances last year, the switch-hitter is not a premium power hitter in a leaguewide sense, but he is a decent bat and one of the best options on this team. Joey Meneses has a better hit tool than he does power, but the right-handed first baseman has managed seven home runs despite just 5.6% barrels this season. Keibert Ruiz is an inexpensive hard-hitting catcher who strikes out just 9.6% of the time and has 11 home runs for just $4,100/$2,800, he can be deployed on either DraftKings or FanDuel tonight. Dominic Smith is slashing .267/.299/.392 with just five home runs and a .082 ISO while creating runs 10% worse than average this season, he has not been good but he is at least difficult to strike out with just a 14.9% strikeout rate on the year. Smith is a lefty hitter who also fills first base on both sites, Candelario is by far the more likely option for MLB DFS scoring, but Smith will be far less popular in stacks. Corey Dickerson is another underwhelming lefty hitter late in the lineup, he has two home runs and a 70 WRC+ on the season while slashing .256/.287/.349. Luis Garcia and Alex Call round out the projected lineup, they are playable parts on the tiny slate and could create differentiation, Call has six home runs and nine steals in his 314 opportunities this season and costs just $2,800/$2,600.
The Mets are the day’s leading team for home run potential and fantasy scoring in a matchup against Josiah Gray, who has wrangled his home run problems successfully for most of this season. Gray allowed a massive 5.86% home run rate in 148.2 innings and 28 starts last year and a 6.19% mark in 70.2 innings in his first 13 starts back in 2021, so far this year he is at just 3.07%. The righty has a 3.45 ERA and a 4.82 xFIP with a 20% strikeout rate but 10.4% walks, he can be an OK league-average pitcher on a good day but there are several areas of concern between the free passes, the lack of strikeouts, and a low CSW%. Gray is playable at $6,600/$8,600, with only six options on the board he ranks fourth, with all six pitchers in play on the slate. Gray is very likely to be the least popular selection on the mound, while his path to success may be thin it is not invisible, he deserves shares in full tournament builds. The Mets are a priority stack in terms of their anticipated offense, they have the highest implied team total on the slate by a half-run and they are pulling major home run potential in our model. Brandon Nimmo has an 11.32 in our home run model with 15 on the board this season, he is a strong option atop the lineup and provides individual output and correlated scoring. Tommy Pham has hit nine home runs and stolen 11 bases while creating runs 25% better than average and costs just $3,300/$2,800 in the outfield. Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have massive power potential in the heart of the lineup, the shortstop has 19 home runs and 17 stolen bases and Alonso has mashed 28 long balls in 393 plate appearances. Both stars will be very popular on this slate, Alonso has been in a bit of a slumber but came to life against the Yankees, he may slip somewhat behind where his popularity truly should be at $5,500/$3,800 on a tiny slate. Jeff McNeil slots in at second base or in the outfield for $3,700/$2,700. McNeil is slashing .249/.325/.323 and has been scuffling through most of the season with just an 88 WRC+. When his BABIP is intact, McNeil can be a valuable contributor who gets on base, he puts the ball in play regularly but has a career-low .277 BABIP this season. Power-hitting catcher Francisco Alvarez has been dynaymite for the Mets this season, he has 19 home runs with a .262 ISO and has created runs 16% better than average yet still costs just $3,800 where his position is mandatory. Alvarez is in play on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Daniel Vogelbach has seven homers in 215 plate appearances and has created runs two percent better than average, he will be far less popular than Alonso at first base in stacks of Mets hitters, on DraftKings that makes him appealing as a mix-in option to differentiate a build while still using a popular team, but it is important to replace Alonso’s ceiling in that build with a premium bat in a different spot, Vogelbach is no Pete Alonso at the plate. Mark Canha is a playable veteran in the eighth spot who can differentiate a build with quality. Canha has six home runs and seven stolen bases in 288 plate appearances this year and hit 13 long balls last year and 17 the season before. Brett Baty has been inconsistent but does have seven rookie home runs and a 44.9% hard-hit rate on the season for cheap prices.
Play: Mets bats/stacks, Kodai Senga, Nationals bats/stacks as a contrarian position, Josiah Gray value darts
Update Notes:
Chicago Cubs (-102/4.78) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-106/4.83)
Hitting conditions are due to be primed for fireworks this evening on a 100-degree evening in St. Louis. Both pitchers are in play, but this seems like a rough situation for the two decent starters. Hometown righty Miles Mikolas is a soft-toss specialist who works effective innings with regularity, despite just a 15.8% strikeout rate and 6.8% swinging strikes with a 24.6% CSW%. Mikolas has a 4.33 ERA and 4.67 xFIP with just a 4.6% walk rate and has allowed just 2.21% home runs on 7.5% barrels. Mikolas has been better in years past, he had a 3.29 ERA with a 3.80 xFIP and 19% strikeout rate with 35.7% hard hits just last season, he is allowing a bit more premium contact this year but he is an option for $6,800/$7,800 from the bottom of the six-pitcher list. Mikolas is more likely to get dinged by the Cubs offense, Chicago checks in with a 4.78-run implied total in what Vegas is seeing as a pick’em game, the projected lineup takes it’s typical recent shape with Mike Tauchman in the leadoff role once again. Tauchman has the talent of a part-time player but his spot in the lineup and a nose for getting on base keep him involved at cheap prices for MLB DFS purposes. Ultimately, Tauchman will probably be over-owned on a short slate, but he is clearly in play when stacking Cubs. Nico Hoerner is expensive for a player with a 101 WRC+ and middling statistical output, though he does have 25 stolen bases on the season. Hoerner slots in at second or shortstop for $5,300/$3,600. Ian Happ gets on base at a .373 clip and has created runs 14% better than average ahead of Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki in the heart of the lineup. Bellinger has a 6.98 in our home run model, slotting him below Christopher Morel but second overall on the team. Bellinger has hit 15 home runs with 12 stolen bases this season, he is a weapon in Cubs stacks. Suzuki has been good this year with a 103 WRC+ but more is expected from the outfielder, he comes cheap at $3,200/$2,800 and has a stout 49.1% hard-hit rate to support the notion of upside at the plate. Dansby Swanson hits between Suzuki and Morel, the shortstop has star-caliber power at his position with several seasons of more than 20 home runs in his ledger, he is up to 12 with a 116 WRC+ this season but needs to do a bit more for the Cubs. Miles Mastrobuoni and Miguel Amaya round out the lineup, Mastrobuoni has a .215/.298/.280 triple-slash with a 64 WRC+ in 106 plate appearances this year, Amaya has been better with a .263/.380/.395 with a 120 WRC+ and two home runs in just 93 opportunities, he costs $2,400/$2,500 as a playable catcher who will be low-owned on the slate.
The St. Louis lineup has more talent than their results in the standings might suggest, the team is typically playable from top to bottom and they are an option against lefty Justin Steele this evening. Steele projects third in the pitching pool with a mark that is competitive with both Senga and second-ranked Tanner Bibee, he is also an option on the short slate in another both-sided situation. Steele has a 22.7% strikeout rate with a very good five percent walk rate while pitching to a 2.95 ERA and 3.68 xFIP over 103.2 innings and 18 starts. Steele is good at cutting power as well, he has allowed just a 1.42% home run rate with a 33% hard-hit rate and 86 mph of exit velocity that may take the legs out from under a Cardinals stack. The lefty had a 24.6% strikeout rate with a 3.18 ERA and 3.48 xFIP in 119 innings last year and posted very similar premium contact marks, he is a strong pitcher who is a great buy at $8,600 on DraftKings and is a different type of option that is equally playable at $10,000 on FanDuel, where the hope will be that his ownership slips a bit in the public pool based on the high price. Dylan Carlson is slated to lead off against the southpaw, he has a .234/.335/.354 triple-slash with a 97 WRC+ on the season but is very cheap in a good spot for correlated scoring. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado typically work back-to-back when a lefty is on the hill, the team’s two star right-handed power hitters have been rolling through another season with WRC+ marks of 134 and 130 respectively. Goldschmidt has 18 home runs and Arenado has blasted 22 to lead the team. Willson Contreras has power behind the plate, he has hit 11 home runs with a 116 WRC+ on the season and is a discounted option at his position for $4,000/$2,800. Tyler O’Neill has two home runs and two steals this year but has a major power bat on the right night and costs just $3,600/$2,300 in the outfield. Jordan Walker has a price tag of just $3,000/$2,800 on a cheap Cardinals team, the outfielder has nine home runs and four stolen bases with a 116 WRC+ in a strong rookie campaign that has seen him make just 243 plate appearances so far. Paul DeJong is a veteran shortstop with power upside, he has 13 home runs in 296 plate appearances this year but is not the most consistent contributor. Taylor Motter is cheap at $2,100/$2,000 with eligibility at second or third base on both sites, he is not a strong option at the plate and has never been a Major League regular in a career that began in 2011, but the quad-A talent has multiple minor league seasons with double-digit home run output and any-given-slate upside. Lefty outfielder Lars Nootbaar is a playable part in the bottom spot in the lineup, he is a very productive hitter to find in that role with a 121 WRC+ on the season in 315 plate appearances.
Play: Cardinals bats/stacks, Cubs bats/stacks, Justin Steele, Miles Mikolas value darts
Update Notes:
Cleveland Guardians (-103/4.28) @ Chicago White Sox (-105/4.31)
The final game on the short slate sees the Guardians in Chicago to face the White Sox who hung up their season by trading Lucas Giolito to the Angels last night. With Giolito’s departure, Dylan Cease is now the team’s ace, the righty has earned the mantle over the past two seasons anyway, posting a 31.9% strikeout rate with a 3.72 xFIP in 2021 and a 30.4% strikeout rate with a 3.50 xFIP in 184 innings last year. Cease has seen a bit of a dip this season with just a 28% strikeout rate but he has been good overall in pitching to a 4.04 ERA and 3.95 xFIP despite giving up a major increase in premium contact. Cease’s hard-hit rate jumped from 31.2% last year to 44.9% this season in a massive uptick that has taken his exit velocity average from 86.8 mph to 91 mph but has not burnt him badly for home runs at just 2.44%. Cease is a good strikeout option facing a team that limits strikeouts very effectively, creating an interesting combination of factors that has the righty at a good-not-great projection on the short slate. Technically, Cease ranks fifth out of six options but there is very little daylight between the top five starters on today’s slate, with Mikolas sitting a few points below the rest of the group. Cease is easily affordable at $8,000/$9,400, he should be popular in this matchup but should be utilized on the mound while also grabbing stacks of Cleveland hitters in other lineups. The Guardians also made a trade yesterday, sending Amed Rosario to the Dodgers in an interesting move. The team will have Steven Kwan in the typical leadoff role and he is expected to be followed by Andres Gimenez in a good spot in the lineup for the second baseman. Kwan has a 101 WR+ on the season and is a correlated scoring play, Gimenez is an interesting player for MLB DFS with his mid-range power and speed, he has nine home runs and 16 stolen bases with a 92 WRC+ but was expected to do a bit more overall. Gimenez is a good buy at $4,300/$2,800 on this slate. Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor are the team’s top two bats, they will be the most popular Guardians hitters tonight. Ramirez has 16 home runs and 13 stolen bases with a 131 WRC+, the star third baseman has struck out just 9.6% of the time while walking 10.3% and slashing .292/.362/.501, he is a priority in most Guardians builds. Naylor is slashing .302/.341/.499 with a 125 WRC+ and 15 home runs in a strong season, he is on theme with just a 15.4% strikeout rate as well. Josh Bell has 11 homers and a .159 WRC+ and is up to 103 WRC+ for the season. Bell is cheap at $3,100/$2,800 but a decision between him and Naylor is still required on DraftKings where mixing Bell into a variety of builds will probably provide a degree of lineup differentiation. Will Brennan has an 81 WRC+ in 290 plate appearances, the left-handed outfielder costs $2,400/$2,300 with just a three percent barrel rate and 29.2% hard-hit rate in the books this year, he is not a strong option for production but he should be both cheap and lower-owned on this slate. Bo Naylor has power upside from the eighth spot in the lineup hitting behind Gabriel Arias and ahead of slap-hitting Myles Straw. Naylor has four home runs in 77 plate appearances since his promotion, he is a cheap catcher who will be unpopular at $2,600/$2,400. Arias fills two positions on DraftKings and three on FanDuel for $2,000/$2,100. Arias is slashing just .188/.295/.306 with a 71 WRC+ and .118 ISO in 166 plate appearances and was not good in 57 chances last year but is expected to hit for power at this level when he connects.
Rookie right-hander Tanner Bibee has been mostly very good in his 15 starts at the outset of his career. Bibee has a 24.6% strikeout rate with a sparkling 3.04 ERA but a more revelatory 4.30 xFIP on the season. The righty has induced a very good 11% swinging-strike rate with a 27.7% CSW% and has held hitters to just 2.02% home runs on a 5.7% barrel rate. Bibee costs $7,200 on DraftKings which is borderline inexplicable pricing, particularly on such a short slate. On FanDuel he is priced at an appropriate $9,600 and is a very strong option on the mound despite the presence of several big power bats in the White Sox lineup. Bibee can be played aggressively on both sites, he projects as the second-best option behind Senga and within less than a point of Steele behind him. Andrew Benintendi has a 2.6% barrel rate and 26.9% hard-hit rate with two home runs this season, Tim Anderson has a 2.8% barrel rate but a much better 40.9% hard-hit rate but has managed zero home runs and only 10 stolen bases in a disappointing season. Benintendi has been the better player overall, he has a 99 WRC+ to Anderson’s 58, but both have been major letdowns for Chicago this season. At $3,100/$2,800 for the outfielder and $3,800/$2,600 for Anderson, both players are options on this slate with a hope that they will be lower-owned due to their underwhelming output. Luis Robert Jr. has a team-leading 13.63 in our home run model as one of the best power options of the day, he will not be a secret to the public and is likely to see popularity on this slate but he makes a very good option when stacking White Sox for $5,900/$4,000. Eloy Jimenez costs just $4,200/$3,200 which helps pay for Robert. Jimenez is a major power bat when healthy as well, he has 3 home runs in 285 plate appearances while slashing .286/.330/.485 and has a .199 ISO and 122 WRC+ this season. Yoan Moncada and Andrew Vaughn join Yasmani Grandal, Jake Burger, and Oscar Colas at the bottom of the projected lineup, all five players can be mixed and matched through lineups. The deep part of the White Sox lineup is probably going to be a good way to gain differentiation over the field, Moncada has a cheap price tag and an OK bat at third base, he has made only 155 plate appearances this season and has three home runs and a 71 WRC+, Vaughn costs less than Moncada despite carrying 12 home runs and a 102 WRC+ with a .175 ISO over 401 plate appearances, Grandal has a 96 WRC+ and can get on base effectively or hit for moderate power, he has eight home runs this season, Burger has 22 home runs and a .293 ISO with a 106 WRC+ as the player with the best output in the group this season, which is different from being the best player in the group. Burger is a good mix-in option, he remains cheap at $3,900/$2,900 at third base and has clear power potential, with him and Moncada both at third base they create another decision point where rostering the lower-end option can gain differentiation. Colas is a rookie with rumored but not displayed power at the MLB level for just $2,200 on either site.
Play: Tanner Bibee, Dylan Cease, White Sox bats/stacks, Guardians bats/stacks
Update Notes:
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