A late start and a big slate have us in hurry-up key points mode for today’s breakdown. Tonight’s 12-gamer has excellent options at the plate and on the mound and demands a broad spread of shares in both. There are a few key teams that are very good daily DFS options facing limited pitchers tonight at the top of the power board and some of the prime pitchers on this slate are facing limited lineups, providing excellent options in both directions with plenty of value pricing across the board. This is a tournament-oriented slate that is better for the 150-max gamers, making selections for one lineup is very difficult on a board of this nature, we would suggest choosing from the top of the pitching pool with a focus on taking the lowest-owned of the most highly projected options, preferably also at cheaper pricing if possible, and rostering the elite hitting options from one of the top stacks with a mix-in value stack for one construction.
Don’t miss our Suggested Stacks feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
Join us at 4:15 ET for a rundown on today’s slate.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 8/22/23
Toronto Blue Jays (+106/3.94) @ Baltimore Orioles (-114/4.14)
- Orioles starter Grayson Rodriguez is very cheap for his talent at $8,200/$6,100, he is a strong dart throw in a tough matchup. Rodriguez has a 24.7% strikeout rate with a 5.44 ERA but a much better 3.87 xFIP under the surface but he has allowed a lot of premium contact with a 4.02% home run rate. For the cheap pricing he is an easy SP2 value play on DraftKings with a clear path to a ceiling score, he is also discounted on FanDuel but the pricing is not as extreme. Rodriguez has been sharp since his mid-July return to the Show, he has a 3.03 ERA and 3.93 xFIP in the six-game sample but his strikeout rate has dipped to 21.9%.
- Blue Jays bats are playable against the contact numbers that are still a part of Rodriguez’s profile, they rank eighth on the board by fantasy point projections and eighth for home run value with good points-per-dollar marks. The Blue Jays lineup is easy to stack in a variety of combinations from 1-7 there are stars, quality mid-range players, and value options in the group, all of whom can provide upside. Whit Merrifield is a strong leadoff hitter with speed and good correlated scoring potential, Bo Bichette returns to the lineup as a key shortstop for $5,200/$3,300 with star-caliber numbers, and Brandon Belt has been too cheap all season at $3,700/$2,900 despite a 133 WRC+ that ranks second on the team and 13 home runs in 347 opportunities with a 12.7% barrel rate. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is also discounted at $5,000/$3,200 with 18 home runs and a 115 WRC+ in a down season for him. George Springer is also a cheap option with star power at $4,700/$3,100 in the outfield. Daulton Varsho and Matt Chapman are joined by Alejandro Kirk and Kevin Kiermaier at the bottom of the lineup, Varsho and Chapman have clear power upside at the plate.
- Yusei Kikuchi has good stuff and strikeout ability on the mound but he has issues with home runs that have been highlighted in this space several times. Kikuchi has a 24.9% strikeout rate this year, he was at 27.3% last year and 24.5% the season before but also sits at 4.15% home runs on 8.6% barrels this season. Last year was far worse with a 5.07% home run rate on 14.8% barrels but the year before was similar at 4.05% on 11% barrels. Kikuchi has been slightly more reliable this season but he is never a “safe” option on the mound, even at $8,900/$9,800 we tend to prefer the Orioles bats on a deep slate, Kikuchi projects out in the lower-middle of the pitching pool.
- Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, and Cedric Mullins are stars in the projected Orioles lineup, if Gunnar Henderson plays against the lefty he would join them as a high-priority option. All five of those hitters have power and they represent the core of the Baltimore offense, they come cheap for the most part as well, with Rutschman landing at 8.06 in our home run model, Mountcastle at 10.08, and Santander leading the team at 10.48. If Henderson were slotted into the lineup in the fifth spot currently occupied by Ramon Urias, who has sneaky power potential, he would have a 9.39 in the home run model. Mullins is a 30/30 caliber star with speed and power from the left side later in the projected batting order. Austin Hays is projected in the cleanup spot ahead of Urias, he is another quality option from the right side with a bit of power and a good triple-slash this season. Jordan Westburg, James McCann, and Jorge Mateo round out the projected batting order as playable parts with Westburg’s prospect pedigree as the most interesting part of the group.
Play: Grayson Rodriguez value, Orioles bats/stacks, Blue Jays bats/stacks, Yusei Kikuchi as a mid-level option in short portions
Update Notes:
Washington Nationals (+159/3.71) @ New York Yankees (-173/4.89)
- Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon returns to the mound after missing two weeks with a hamstring injury that may have been cover for his lack of quality on the mound this season. Rodon has an unsightly 7.33 ERA and a not-much-better 6.02 xFIP over 27 innings in six starts, he has been mostly lost on the mound. The left-handed former ace has struck out 20.5% in his short season while walking 14.8% in a wildly unsustainable combination and he has yielded a 6.56% home run rate on 10.3% barrels and 44.9% hard hits with 92.9 mph of exit velocity. Rodon projects fairly well even with a potential innings cap against the Nationals, but Washington has punished left-handed pitching all season, they do not strike out much in the split, and the pitcher has been flat-out bad all year, making this a very tough option even at $7,800/$6,700. Given the ceiling of a pitcher who had a 33.4% strikeout rate and a sparkling 2.88 ERA and 2.91 xFIP last season and similar numbers the year before, Rodon is not off the board but he is in no way a safe or even likely to succeed option on this slate.
- Washington has a 112 WRC+ with a 19.4% strikeout rate collectively against left-handed pitching this season, they have been very good on the whole in the split. Key Nationals bats include CJ Abrams, who has been a bit less than against fellow lefties but maintains a premium spot at the top of the lineup with direct correlation to Lane Thomas and Joey Meneses. Thomas has a 118 WRC+ overall and Meneses joins him above the waterline at 103. Thomas leads with 20 home runs and 15 stolen bases to Meneses’ 11 and zero, and both players have respectable overall triple-slash numbers with more quality against lefties. Keibert Ruiz is a good switch-hitting catcher who has 15 home runs and a 97 WRC+ on the season and can pound left-handed mistakes. Stone Garrett and Riley Adams have both excellent in the split against left-handed pitching and they cost merely $3,600/$2,600 and $3,500/$2,700 tonight. Ildemaro Vargas is an effective option in the infield for cheap pricing, his three-position eligibility is a benefit to FanDuel gamers. Michael Chavis also fits three positions on the blue site, he is a $2,400 second baseman on DraftKings and he has a career ISO over .200 against lefties. Alex Call is a mix-in who has been better against lefties this season from the end of the lineup. The Nationals are a good option for value today.
- New York is pulling in massive power numbers against Josiah Gray, who has been better for home runs this season but still has his down games. Overall, Gray has a 2.98% home run rate on eight percent barrels with a 20% strikeout rate and a 3.96 ERA but a 5.02 xFIP. The righty has the talent to pitch his way to a strong score against the Yankees, even with power showing in their lineup, but he projects only in the low-middle part of a deep pitching slate for $6,900/$8,400.
- DJ LeMahieu has been low-end all season, he has an 89 WRC+ with a .240/.315/.365 triple-slash and eight home runs while striking out at a rate nearly 10 points higher than he had last year. Aaron Judge is our overall home run pick from the top of the board for the entire slate at 24.82. Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton are too cheap in the heart of the lineup, they both land over the magic number for power potential tonight. Jake Bauers has good left-handed power and joins the group at 11.06 with first base and outfield eligibility, he has 11 home runs in 235 plate appearances. Harrison Bader and Anthony Volpe have any-given-slate upside for counting stats but they have been extremely inconsistent with WRC+ marks of 82 and 90 on the season. Ben Rortvedt is mostly here for his defense but the Yankees will have some reinforcements joining the team from AAA tonight. Oswald Peraza is a strong prospect in the infield who had nowhere to play with the big club, the promise from management with his promotion is that he is expected to play almost every day, Peraza is slashing .268/.357/.479 with a 107 WRC+ and .211 ISO with 14 homers and 16 steals in 300 AAA plate appearances. Outfielder Everson Periera is another top prospect, he will be making his debut in the outfield tonight and is more guaranteed of playing time than Peraza. Periera has a .291/.362/.545 triple-slash with a .255 ISO, 10 home runs, and seven stolen bases in 185 AA plate appearances and a .312/.386/.551 with a .239 ISO, eight homers, and four stolen bases in 158 AAA chances this season, he costs the minimum on DraftKings and is so far unavailable on FanDuel.
Play: Yankees bats/stacks, Nationals bats/stacks as a good value vs LHP, Carlos Rodon in small doses with no faith, only darts with Josiah Gray in Yankee Stadium
Update Notes:
St. Louis Cardinals (+120/4.75) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-130/5.36)
- Johan Oviedo has a limited 20.2% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate with a 4.55 ERA and 4.81 xFIP in 25 starts and 140.1 innings this season. The righty projects in the lower quarter of the pitching pool, he does not look like a good option with the Cardinals carrying a 4.75-run implied total, though his Pirates are favored with a 5.36 against Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright who is clearly not an option at $5,200/$6,000. Wainwright has a sad 11.5% strikeout rate with an 8.42 ERA and 5.73 xFIP with a 4.21% home run rate this year. Neither pitcher looks like a good option on this slate.
- Cardinals hitters have been frustrating for MLB DFS this season, the team has so much talent that they are almost always at least a playable option, but they tend to underperform or at least not all perform in big ways on the same night. The season-long numbers bear that out, most of the team’s key hitters, like Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, and Tyler O’Neill have been above average for run creation in an overall down year. Tommy Edman is a functional leadoff hitter with triple-position eligibility ahead of the team’s power core, Alec Burleson slots into the second spot in the projected lineup with inconsistent power output from the left side against the limited righty. Goldschmidt and Arenado have WRC+ marks of 126 and 123 respectively, with 20 and 26 home runs to lead the team, the star corner infielders are cheap for their scoring potential at $5,600/$3,600 and $5,600/$3,400. O’Neill is a primed power hitter with seven home runs in 204 plate appearances and a 108 WRC+, and the bottom of the lineup is comprised of playable parts in rookie Jordan Walker, Richie Palacios, and recently promoted Masyn Winn who is still cheap at shortstop on both sites. The Cardinals rank 16th by fantasy projects and 14th for points-per-dollar on both sites.
- Pirates bats are in play against Wainwright, they rank 15th by collective fantasy points on a tightly-packed board with 13th-ranked FanDuel points-per-dollar numbers but the 3rd best value mark on DraftKings. Ji-Hwan Bae leads off for $2,700/$2,800 with multi-position eligibility and speed, he has 20 stolen bases in 253 plate appearances despite just a .308 on-base percentage. Bryan Reynolds has 18 home runs and nine stolen bases with a 114 WRC+ and costs just $4,800/$3,600. Andrew McCutchen has solid on-base skills and still provides good correlated scoring for a fair price. Jack Suwinski is the team’s best power hitter, he has a 17.8% barrel rate and 46.5% hard hits with 21 home runs and eight stolen bases as a strong option for a value price at $3,400/$3,000 in the outfield. Ke’Bryan Hayes has a good bat for a cheap price at third base, Joshua Palacios has been somewhat productive with five home runs in 162 plate appearances and a .173 ISO. Liover Peguero has five home runs in 93 plate appearances with a .202 ISO and a 44% hard-hit rate since his promotion, Alfonso Rivas and Jason Delay land late in the projected lineup. The Pirates are a good option against Wainwright but they are sure to draw some popularity and they remain a middling team overall, this is a good stack but pay attention to where the public’s popular combinations are landing and make a few different de
Play: Pirates bats/stacks, Cardinals bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-193/5.01) @ Cleveland Guardians (+176/3.59)
- Noah Syndergaard projects at the very bottom of the pitching pool, below even Adam Wainwright, against the heavily-favored Dodgers tonight. Syndergaard has a 14.3% strikeout rate with a 6.57 ERA and 5.15 xFIP on the season. The righty is still good at limiting walks, he has just a 4.4% walk rate but he has allowed a 5.25% home run rate on 9.3% barrels and 40.9% hard hits in a bad turn from his usual quality at limiting power, he is not a good option for MLB DFS even at $5,600/$6,500.
- Los Angeles ranks fifth by projections with strong points-per-dollar numbers and an 11th-ranked home run mark that still reflects Syndergaard’s ability to check power in a larger sample. The Dodgers are a highly playable stack with a 5.01-run implied team total in Vegas. Mookie Betts has an 11.11 in the home run model, he has hit 34 this season with a .298 ISO while creating runs 65% better than average, joining teammate Freddie Freeman both atop this elite lineup and in NL MVP Award discussions. Freeman has ripped 23 home runs with 16 stolen bases and a .242 ISO while creating runs 64% better than average at first base, both players are fantastic options for high prices on this slate. Will Smith is a powerhouse catcher with an excellent eye at the plate, he has 15 home runs with excellent bat-to-ball skills and a 12.3% walk rate while creating runs 28% better than average. Max Muncy has immense left-handed power and a 10.23 in the home run model with a .276 ISO on the season. David Peralta, Jason Heyward, and James Outman are all good left-handed hitters in the outfield at fair-to-cheap prices, they are excellent options to mix and match in a variety of combinations with the team’s true stars above them in the lineup. Enrique Hernandez is a playable part in the late part of the lineup with multi-position eligibility and Miguel Rojas is a low-end mixer with a 55 WRC+.
- Cleveland stacks are rarely a good option, the team is relegated to just a 3.59-run implied total tonight against excellent young starter Bobby Miller who has a 22.4% strikeout rate with a 3.70 ERA and 4.04 xFIP with a 10% swinging-strike rate and a terrific 1.92% home run rate in his 75.1 innings and 14 outings. Miller has elite stuff on the mound, his pitches grade out quite a bit higher than his already good output on the mound, he has room to grow into a top-end starter and he is an interesting option with a top-six projection on a deep slate for just $8,600/$9,000 against a nothing lineup.
- Guardians’ priorities include Jose Ramirez and no one else. Ramirez is the team’s lone star, he has 18 home runs and a matching stolen base total with a 121 WRC+. When stacking this team in a bad spot, sensible options include Steven Kwan who is at a 101 WRC+ and .341 on-base percentage, Kole Calhoun who has a bit of lefty power left in his bat for cheap pricing, and Andres Gimenez who has power and speed for fair value at second base on both sites. Ramon Laureano is a middling mixer with a bit of pop and speed on the right night, Will Brennan has a 74 WRC+ in 352 plate appearances but at least hits lefty, and Gabriel Arias has enough power to ruin Miller’s score with one swing, though he rarely connects and is more likely to feed the pitcher strikeouts given a 33.3% strikeout rate in 234 plate appearances. Arias has hit seven home runs with a 45.4% hard-hit rate and he costs the minimum on DraftKings at first base or shortstop while landing at three positions for $2,200 on FanDuel, in some ways Arias is the second-best option in a Guardians stack. Catcher Bo Naylor and infielder Brayan Rocchio add two moderately capable positional options late in the lineup in a bad matchup.
Play: Bobby Miller, Dodgers bats/stacks
Update Notes:
New York Mets (+193/4.51) @ Atlanta Braves (-213/6.63)
- Righty Bryce Elder has a 17.6% strikeout rate with a 3.46 ERA and 4.36 xFIP in 138 innings and 24 starts this season, he is good at limiting power with just a 2.46% home run rate on 6.5% barrels and 7.9 degrees of launch angle on average, but he is targetable with bats on the right night. Elder projects into almost the exact middle of the board for $8,300/$8,800, he is a playable but limited option against a Mets team that is a heavy underdog but still carries a 4.51-run implied total in a high-end game.
- Mets hitters are in play, particularly from the strong top end of the lineup. Brandon Nimmo has a 130 WRC+ with a good lefty bat for fair prices, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are stars with tons of power and run creation ability at discounted prices for where their extremely high ceilings are on this slate. Jeff McNeil is a mix-in option with on-base skills and a hit tool, he has pushed his way up to .266/.336/.355 and his 98 WRC+ is threatening to get above average with a good night tonight. McNeil is cheap at $4,000/$2,900 with second base and outfield eligibility in a good lineup spot. Daniel Vogelbach and DJ Stewart have some left-handed pop later in the lineup at value pricing, and Francisco Alvarez has a very high ceiling for power despite inconsistent rookie growing pains at the plate, he is cheap at $3,900/$2,800 at catcher and he has 21 home runs and a 106 WRC+ on the season. Rafael Ortega and Jonathan Arauz are late-lineup mixers.
- Righty Tylor Megill has made three starts since his return to the team, they have not gone well for MLB DFS. Overall this season, Megill has a 5.53 ERA and 5.16 xFIP with a limited 17.4% strikeout rate and an ugly 11.1% walk rate. He has allowed a 9.6% barrel rate and 3.02% home runs on 42.1% hard hits and 90.4 mph of exit velocity, he is a target for Braves hitters and not much more on this slate.
- Atlanta’s everyday lineup is in place, Michael Harris II continues to slot in second for absent Ozzie Albies, providing a cheap price to average down the cost of stars Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, and Matt Olson, all of whom look typically excellent tonight. Acuna, Riley, Olson, Marcell Ozuna, and Sean Murphy are all well over the “magic number” for power tonight with Olson at a massive 20.55 leading the way for home run potential. Acuna has a 16.45, Riley a 15.43, Ozuna is at 14.24, and Murphy is carrying an 11.59 behind the plate. Veteran outfielder Eddie Rosario just misses the line at 9.87, but that is a good-as mark for a player who has 19 home runs and a .220 ISO this season. Orlando Arcia is a strong late lineup option with a 110 WRC+, 14 home runs, and a strong triple-slash for just $3,800/$2,700 in the eighth spot and either Nicky Lopez or Vaughn Grissom would be a cheap playable part, with Grissom as the more appealing option.
Play: Braves bats/stacks aggressively, Mets bats/stacks in smaller portions
Update Notes:
Minnesota Twins (-107/4.07) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-101/4.01)
- Lefty Wade Miley is showing a bit of appeal with a mid-board projection against the high-strikeout Twins lineup tonight. The southpaw is playable for value given his very cheap $6,300/$7,900 pricing, particularly as an SP2. Miley is a limited option with a 16.3% strikeout rate over 16 starts and 82.2 innings this season, he has a 3.05 ERA that looks good but a 4.84 xFIP beneath the surface. The veteran lefty has allowed a 2.97% home run rate on just 31.5% hard hits this season, he is typically good at limiting power and has the potential to find a few additional cheap strikeouts against the Twins, but he has a somewhat limited ceiling for MLB DFS purposes and is more of a mix-in value option than a primary priority.
- Twins bats are ranked near the bottom of the board across the board tonight, they have limited options but a bit of power in the lineup on the right night but a low run total in Vegas and Miley’s talents on the mound, limited as they may be, are keeping projections in check. Matt Wallner is the only player in the projected Twins batting order with a home run mark that even cracks the halfway point on the journey to 10.0, he has a 5.48 tonight with Carlos Correa and Jorge Polanco at 4.72 and 4.66 respectively in the heart of the lineup. Jordan Luplow is projected into the leadoff spot for $2,600/$2,200 which would make him a priority for value when stacking Twins in a mediocre spot. Donovan Solano is good at putting the ball in play with limited power at the plate, Royce Lewis has a bit of upside for cheap pricing in the infield with a 129 WRC+ over his 120 plate appearances and a 4.39 in the home run model, and Michael A. Taylor is always low-owned and cheap with power and speed late in the lineup in infrequent contributions. Taylor has 16 home runs and 12 stolen bases with a .202 ISO over 327 plate appearances this season.
- Bailey Ober ranks in the upper-middle range in a start against the Brewers, who he has checked to just 4.01 implied runs tonight. Ober is a good right-handed pitcher with a 3.40 ERA and 4.29 xFIP in 113.2 innings and 20 starts this season. The righty has allowed a 3.48% home run rate on a bit of premium contact with 9.4% barrels but he has limited hard hits to just 35.4% and exit velocity to 88.7 mph while striking out 24.6% and walking just 4.8%. Ober is in play with a good-not-great projection for a high price at $10,200/$10,000 tonight.
- Brewers bats have limited appeal with a bad matchup and a low total in Vegas, they rank 20th by fantasy point projections though they do shoot up to seventh for home run potential despite Ober’s talent. Christian Yelich has a 9.29 in the home run model tonight for $5,100/$3,900, the team’s star has 16 long balls and a 51% hard-hit rate this season. William Contreras has 12 home runs and a .168 ISO as a high-end catcher with a good position in the batting order, Carlos Santana has been raking since landing in Milwaukee and is up to 18 home runs with a .187 ISO this season, and the lineup has a quality middle with the power of Willy Adames and Rowdy Tellez and the toolsy contributions of Sal Frelick, all of whom are fairly affordable. Tellez is still at an extreme discount at the minimum price on DraftKings, he has 12 home runs in 295 plate appearances this season and he hit 35 in 599 chances last year. Andruw Monstasterio, Brice Turang, and Tyrone Taylor are playable mix-ins for power and speed late in the lineup.
Play: Bailey Ober, Wade Miley value, minor shares of bats on either side with Brewers bats preferred for cheap power
Update Notes:
Seattle Mariners (-152/4.74) @ Chicago White Sox (+140/3.86)
- Mike Clevinger has a 3.26 ERA and 5.36 xFIP with a 19.7% strikeout rate in 85.2 innings and 16 starts this season. The righty has had a few good outings for MLB DFS purposes of late, most recently his last start at the Cubs was a gem, Clevinger fired seven innings of three-hit shutout ball, striking out seven and walking two in that game, he was a very good option that night and he checks in for $6,600/$8,000 tonight. Our model does not like the spot for Clevinger, but there is a tinge of potential given the Mariners’ still-high strikeout rate despite their excellent run over the last month. We prefer Mariners bats and the power that the team is showing in the home run model.
- Seattle ranks fourth overall by collective home run upside and they sit in the middle of the board by fantasy point projections against Clevinger. JP Crawford is an affordable shortstop with a quality bat and correlated scoring potential with the team’s stars, namely Julio Rodriguez, but also the power core behind him. Rodriguez got a night off last night after his scorching week, he has a 124 WRC+ with 21 home runs and 33 stolen bases and picks up where he left off at $5,500/$4,500 in the outfield. Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh, and Teoscar Hernandez are high-strikeout extreme power bats with 18, 24, and 19 home runs on the season. Ty France and Mike Ford are a pair of first basemen who provide different qualities, the righty has a better hit tool and a 108 WRC+ on the season, while Ford hits from the left side later in the lineup and provides cheap power potential with a 10.56 in our home run model tonight and 12 in his 172 plate appearances with a .273 ISO this season. Dominic Canzone and Cade Marlowe are good plays late in the lineup for cheap rookie power potential with a touch of speed and run creation ability, and Josh Rojas is a cheap playable infield click.
- Bryan Woo returns to the mound after a brief absence, he is a strong option with a mid-board projection for $7,600/$7,900 against the limited White Sox. Woo has a 25.9% strikeout rate with a 4.75 ERA and 4.09 xFIP this season, he is a terrific young starter who has a 12.4% swinging-strike rate at the MLB level while limiting barrels to 6.6% and hard hits to 32.9% in the small sample. For the fair prices, Woo is at worst a good value dart on both sites, his talent and a good matchup against a White Sox team with a 3.86-run implied total justify more shares than that.
- Elvis Andrus is a highly limited leadoff hitter, Andrew Benintendi has underperformed all season and has a 92 WRC+ in 489 plate appearances, and Luis Robert Jr. has hit 33 home runs with 16 stolen bases as the team’s superstar. Robert has a 136 WRC+ with a 14.8% barrel rate and a .290 ISO. Eloy Jimenez has major power at the plate, he has hit 14 home runs in 348 plate appearances this season but is always hampered by injuries. Yoan Moncada has been mostly ineffective at the plate this season and for the past couple of years, he is cheap at third base in a bad matchup. Andrew Vaughn has 16 home runs and a 105 WRC+ at $3,300/$2,900 at first base. Yasmani Grandal, Oscar Colas, and Lenyn Sosa provide very limited potential from late in the lineup for cheap prices. The White Sox are a low-end option on this slate.
Play: Mariners bats/stacks aggressively, Bryan Woo, maybe a Clevinger value dart or two
Update Notes:
Boston Red Sox (+122/4.25) @ Houston Astros (-133/4.85)
- Veteran righty Justin Verlander projects in the upper-middle of the board against a Red Sox team that he has checked to just 4.25 implied runs tonight. Verlander has a 20.2% strikeout rate overall with a 3.36 ERA and 4.65 xFIP this season but he has been effective at limiting home run power, which will be a key against Boston tonight. Verlander has not been greatly improved by a move back to Houston, his three starts with the Astros have been limited for DFS quality, but he has a clear ceiling in any given matchup, even with stiff opposition he is worth a few shares on both sites at $9,500/$9,600.
- Alex Verdugo is cheap at $4,100/$3,000, the outfielder has a 107 WRC+ with nine home runs and a .342 on-base percentage, he correlates well with star third baseman Rafael Devers who has all-world power at third base for just $5,500/$3,800 with a 7.31 in the home run model against Verlander. Justin Turner is having a tremendous season with 20 home runs and an excellent-as-always triple-slash. Masataka Yoshida has a 12.6% strikeout rate and 41.4% hard-hit rate that blend well together and he has a 119 WRC+ over 468 plate appearances this season. Triston Casas has hit 20 home runs with a .227 ISO and a terrific 14.4% barrel rate, Trevor Story is making great contact but showing limited results since his return, he is cheap with flexible positioning in the middle infield, and Jarren Duran is affordable amidst a breakout year in the outfield. Connor Wong and Pablo Reyes are cheap playable parts late in the Red Sox lineup.
- Tanner Houck has a limited lower-quarter pitching projection against the elite Astros lineup, he does not look like a strong option for $7,600 on either site. Houck has a 5.05 ERA but a 3.82 xFIP with a 22.5% strikeout rate but he has not pitched in the Show since June and has made three limited rehab starts in AAA in August.
- Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Yordan Alvarez are terrific options atop the Astros lineup on any given slate, they have an excellent blend of power and on-base skills with premium marks for run creation. Altuve has a 161 WRC+, Bregman is at 121, Tucker 145, and Alvarez leads the group at 156 while mashing 21 home runs in just 342 plate appearances. The Astros are expensive but well worth the effort on both sites at the top of the lineup and they have some salary relief in the form of Yainer Diaz at catcher for $4,000/$2,700 with first base added on DraftKings. Jon Singleton is cheap with limited potential for left-handed power at the plate, Chas McCormick is an underpriced star outfielder late int he lineup with a 153 WRC+, 19 home runs, and 13 steals on the season. Jeremy Pena and Martin Maldonado are mix-ins late in the lineup.
Play: Astros bats/stacks, Red Sox bats/stacks, Justin Verlander in mid-level shares
Update Notes:
Cincinnati Reds (+129/4.18) @ Los Angeles Angels (-139/4.91)
- Righty Lucas Giolito has a 24.8% strikeout rate with a 4.44 ERA and a 4.45 xFIP while allowing 4.30% home runs on 10.4% barrels in a very up-and-down season. While Giolito is typically somewhat better than those numbers, particularly for power and barrels, they are not overly far afield from what he has done in the past and he has a very strong upside on the right slate. The Reds are a fun bunch but they have a very high 26.6% strikeout rate for the projected lineup that is pushing upside in the direction of the pitcher in a both-sided situation. Giolito ranks second on the pitching slate while opposing starter Graham Ashcraft looks far more like a target for Angels bats and projects in the bottom few on the board. Ashcraft has a 16.4% strikeout rate with a 4.89 ERA and 4.72 xFIP this season and has allowed a 3.27% home run rate, the Angels are pulling strong projections against him.
- Cincinnati ranks third on the board for fantasy point projections and fifth for home run potential with good points-per dollar marks in a both-sided situation against Giolito, they are a playable stack in this spot. TJ Friedl is a strong correlation play with a bit of power and good speed for $4,700/$3,100 in the outfield, Matt McLain has a 128 WRC+ with 13 home runs and 11 stolen bases, and Elly De La Cruz has hit 10 homers and stolen 19 bags but has a 95 WRC+ in 278 plate appearances. Spencer Steer has hit 18 home runs and stolen 11 bases, fitting in well with the team’s mid-range power and speed approach, he is fairly priced at $5,000/$3,100 at first base and in the outfield. Joey Votto and Christian Encarnacion-Strand have major power in the heart of the lineup, Votto leads the team at 11.24 in the home run model and the rookie has a 6.26 with four long balls in just 112 plate appearances. Tyler Stephenson is a playable catcher, Will Benson has had a strong year and a 132 WRC+, and Noelvi Marte is another premium rookie call-up who just joined the lineup.
- The Angels rank second to Atlanta by fantasy point projections and they land first overall on the board for value on both sites with a sixth-ranked home run potential. Rookie Nolan Schanuel leads off for $2,500/$2,000 he has made just 14 plate appearances and was in college about six weeks ago, he is in a terrific spot to correlate with Shohei Ohtani who is carrying a 13.13 in our home run model for $6,500/$4,600. Brandon Drury has major right-handed power at the plate with a 6.62 in the home run model tonight and he has 17 long balls on the season, Mike Moustakas has 11 homers with a .176 ISO and 40.1% hard-hit rate, and Logan O’Hoppe has major power potential behind the plate for $2,600/$2,000. O’Hoppe is a premium option at catcher who is likely to slip under the radar, particularly for the minimum where his position is not necessarily required. Mickey Moniak has premium potential on the left side, Hunter Renfroe finally hit his 18th home run of the season and now has 78 since the start of the 2021 season, he has major right-handed pop. Luis Rengifo and Randal Grichuk are strong righty options from the final two spots in the batting order in a stack that plays well in various combinations from 1-9.
Play: Angels bats/stacks, Reds bats/stacks, Lucas Giolito all as good options
Update Notes:
Kansas City Royals (-120/4.46) @ Oakland Athletics (-101/4.26)
- Both pitchers in this game project in the lower-middle of the board, they are weak options at $5,000/$5,800 for Angel Zerpa and $5,900/$6,400 for Hogan Harris. Zerpa has a 14.8% strikeout rate with a 6.08 ERA in one start and 13.1 innings this season, he was similarly weak in limited samples in his past two seasons and no real prospect pedigree. Harris is the home starter, he has a 19.3% strikeout rate and 6.98 ERA with a 5.31 xFIP and a lot of contact allowed.
- Both teams are low-end stacks, the Royals have a 4.46-run total with Maikel Garcia providing a decent hit tool and speed ahead of the team’s star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. who blasted his 25th home run last night and has 37 steals on the season with a 120 WRC+ for $5,800/$4,300. Michael Massey has OK lefty pop with 10 home runs but only a .136 ISO, Sal Perez is having a limited-for-him season with only 19 home runs in 466 plate appearances and a .176 ISO with a 90 WRC+. The balance of the Royals lineup is comprised of limited low-cost options, with Freddy Fermin as one of the more interesting options given his quality production in 195 plate appearances and cheap catcher positioning.
- The Athletics lineup has a few interesting options, Esteury Ruiz has speed if he manages to reach first base but just a 79 WRC+ and a .301 on-base percentage. Zack Gelof has nine homers and a .320 ISO in an excellent 138 plate appearances. Ryan Noda returned to the lineup, he has good power with 11 home runs and a .188 ISO and he gets on base well at a .382 clip. Brent Rooker has 21 home runs on the season and a .231 ISO, and the rest of the lineup is comprised of affordable mix-and-match parts like Jordan Diaz and Aledmys Diaz, as well as cheap catcher Shea Langeliers.
Play: bats if anything, but they are all low priority options
Update Notes:
Texas Rangers (+109/4.15) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-118/4.44)
- Zac Gallen has struck out 26.1% of opposing hitters with a 3.17 ERA and 3.53 xFIP this season, he has been mostly excellent on the mound and he projects as one of the leading starters on this slate for $11,000/$10,500 despite a tough matchup against the Rangers, who he is limiting to just 4.15 runs on the board in Vegas. Gallen is a very talented pitcher with believable upside, if the pricing and matchup keep his ownership limited beyond where it should be it is to our benefit to take on more shares of the uncomfortable spot.
- Texas bats are typically elite, they have star power in Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Adolis Garcia, who are surrounded by excellent MLB DFS options at a range of prices and positions. Seager is the top priority, the superstar shortstop is a good one-off at his position on most nights but even he is below the magic number for power at 9.77 tonight, with Garcia ranking second on the team at 9.25 and no one else over the 6.68 that Semien is carrying. Nathaniel Lowe is a good hitter at first base for a cheap price, the team has two highly playable catcher options with power in Jonah Heim and Mitch Garver, and the lineup concludes with options like Travis Jankowski, Ezequiel Duran and Leody Taveras.
- Arizona is in play against starter Jon Gray who is a limited option in the middle-board for too high a price on FanDuel at $9,200 but looks like a playable part for value at $6,700 on the DraftKings slate. Gray has a 20.5% strikeout rate with a 7.9% walk rate and 3.52 ERA with a 4.39 xFIP, he is a mixer at SP2 on the two-pitcher site.
- The Diamondbacks are a low-strikeout high-quality group of hitters, focus bats include second base star Ketel Marte, outfielder Corbin Carroll, and Christian Walker at first base. The lineup offers excellent bolt-on parts with power and speed as well as run creation ability and low strikeout rates in Tommy Pham and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. with Alex Thomas, Jace Peterson,Gabriel Moreno, and Geraldo Perdomo as playable parts late in the projected batting order. The Diamondbacks lineup has depth but their ceiling is not easy to reach tonight, they are a mid-board mixer of a stack.
Play: Zac Gallen, Rangers bats/stacks in moderation, Diamondbacks bats/stacks in moderation, Jon Gray SP2 value
Update Notes:
Miami Marlins (+160/3.27) @ San Diego Padres (-175/4.32)
We have run out of time to cover this game before the show starts, please tune in for additional details but suffice to say that the Padres top-end is always in play around Ha–Seong Kim, Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts, while Jesus Luzardo projects very well against them at fair pricing in a good both-sided situation. Luzardo has a 27.7% strikeout rate and good numbers across the board. Blake Snell, meanwhile, projects at the very top of the pitching board but needs to dance around premium bats like Jorge Soler and Luis Arraez as well as power in Josh Bell and Jake Burger.
Play: four corners: Blake Snell, Jesus Luzardo, Padres bats/stacks, Marlins bats/stacks in smaller portions
Update Notes:
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