Friday night makes up for the tiny Thursday slate with a 14-game monster on both DraftKings and FanDuel that should be loaded with opportunities to uncover scoring at lower popularity. The board includes a handful of premium ace-caliber starters, a wide plateau of capable starters in a variety of situations, and a long list of highly-targetable punching bags on the mound, oh and there’s a Coors Field game between two of baseball’s worst teams to deal with as well. This is a slate that could go in any direction, getting to a compacted pitching pool with a variety of options at a range of pricing that will help differentiate possible combinations while stretching out to cover numerous potential outcomes at the plate is the recommended approach for building lineups, with two full stacks recommended, on a slate of this nature.
Don’t miss our Suggested Stacks feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
Join us at 4:15 ET for a rundown on today’s slate:
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 7/28/23
New York Yankees (-119/4.45) @ Baltimore Orioles (+110/4.14)
Orioles starter Grayson Rodriguez is a premium rookie searching for his full form at this level. Over 12 starts and 56 innings, Rodriguez has a 26.1% strikeout rate and a 3.80 that look great, but a 6.91 ERA and 5.14% home run rate that are awful. Rodriguez has allowed the homers on 11.7% barrels and a massive 50.6% hard hits with 91.2 mph of exit velocity on average, he has also walked 9.9% of opposing hitters and has a 1.66 WHIP. Rodriguez is a talented pitcher and he has plenty of upside against the Yankees’ scuffling lineup, but New York is due to get superstar Aaron Judge back tonight, the Yankees are drawing quality power and points projections in our model, and the conditions in Baltimore strongly favor hitting on a hot humid windy night. Rodriguez ranks around the middle of the board, making him a value option at $6,300/$7,700 on this slate, he has a good ceiling but could also fall through the floor. Jake Bauers is slated to lead off in the projected lineup, the lefty has seven home runs with a .232 ISO in his 163 plate appearances but just a .307 on-base percentage as a miscast leadoff hitter. Judge lands second in the projected lineup, he is our overall home run pick of the day and the leader in our home run model at 18.95 for $6,000/$4,200. Judge has 19 home runs and a .383 ISO in the 213 plate appearances he was able to make prior to his injury, he is a major upgrade to the Yankees lineup. Giancarlo Stanton has 13 home runs but sits at just .200/.278/.442 with a 93 WRC+, Stanton is cheap at $5,000/$3,100. Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres also cost $3,100 on the blue site, they are $4,000 and $4,900 options respectively on DraftKings. Rizzo has 12 home runs with a 103 WRC+ and Torres has 16 with a 112 that led the team until the return of Judge and his 187 mark. DJ LeMahieu has had a bad season but he is cheap and fills multiple positions. Harrison Bader, Anthony Volpe, and Kyle Higashioka are inconsistent contributors who all have power at the plate, Bader and Volpe also offer speed in the rare instances they are able to reach first base. The Yankees are a priority stack in this matchup and at their pricing, but if Judge does not play our esteem will plummet.
Righty Gerrit Cole is one of the highest-projected options on the slate in a tough spot against a good Orioles lineup in favorable hitting conditions. Cole is one of the biggest name-brand starters on the board tonight, he has an $11,000 price tag on both sites and is a highly playable option but is unlikely to see significant popularity on the giant-sized slate. Cole has a 27.6% strikeout rate with a 2.78 ERA but a 3.67 xFIP, he has induced an 11.9% swinging-strike rate this season while managing to walk just 6.9% and limit home runs to 2.49%, which is a big improvement from the 4.16% last year and 3.31% the season before. Cole is a primary option on this slate and it is easy to get ahead of the field on shares of the starter, but it is important to note that the spot is in no way a “safe” play. Gunnar Henderson is a good left-handed hitter with third base and shortstop eligibility, he is slashing .241/.336/.466 with 16 home runs and five stolen bases in 357 rookie plate appearances. Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander are excellent options in the second and third spots, the catcher has 14 home runs with a 122 WRC+ on the season and Santander has hit 17 long balls with a .211 ISO and 120 WRC+. Ryan O’Hearn remains cheap at $3,200/$2,800, he is eligible only at first base on a strict DraftKings slate, making him a decision-point with star Ryan Mountcastle on the site. On FanDuel, O’Hearn costs $2,800 and maintains eligibility at first base and in the outfield. The lefty slugger has nine home runs and a .308/.351/.533 triple-slash in a surprising 185 plate appearances, he is likely to return to Earth over the next 185 but as long as his price remains low and he is in the heart of the lineup he can be utilized in stacks of Orioles. Mountcastle has 12 home runs in 294 plate appearances, the same total as Adam Frazier has managed in 323 opportunities. For $3,900/$2,900, Mountcastle is an absolute bargain given his talent, but the matchup against Cole is awful. Austin Hays follows Frazier in the lineup after Mountcastle, he is having a very good season and has created runs 18% better than average. Rookies Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg have value at the bottom of the lineup with Cowser filling an outfield spot for $2,600/$2,300 and Westburg filling multiple infield spots for $3,000/$2,600.
Play: Gerrit Cole, Yankees bats/stacks, Orioles bats/stacks, Grayson Rodriguez value darts
Update Notes:
Philadelphia Phillies (-150/4.72) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+138/3.87)
The Phillies are carrying a good 4.72-run implied total in a matchup against Mitch Keller who projects fairly well in our pitching model. Keller has been up and down this season, in typical Mitch Keller fashion. Overall he has a 25.4% strikeout rate with a 4.01 ERA and 3.72 xFIP over 21 starts and 128 innings. The righty had a very strong start to the season with a 3.73 xFIP for March and April and a 2.39 for the month of May, which also included a 33.8% strikeout rate for the month, but he has returned to his unreliable form in June and July with xFIP marks of 4.31 and 5.19 and strikeout rates sitting at just 19.8% and 17.8%. Overall the pitcher seems to be in decline and his last two outings have been brutally bad, Keller is difficult to trust at $9,600/$10,200 against a good Philadelphia squad. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with a 9.20 in our home run model, he has 26 this season with a .242 ISO and 14.5% barrel rate, the outfielder costs just $4,600/$3,500. Trea Turner is slashing .245/.297/.384 with an 82 WRC+ for the season, his 10 home runs and 21 stolen bases are just OK for counting stats, he has not been himself for most of the season but has a very high ceiling on any given slate. Turner costs $5,700/$3,100, his price on DraftKings is a might high for a scuffling player but the FanDuel price is a bargain. Bryce Harper has five home runs and seven stolen bases with a 119 WRC+ that is tied with eighth-hitting Brandon Marsh for the team lead. Nick Castellanos remains inexpensive at $4,300/$3,200 in the outfield, he has 14 home runs and a 109 WRC+ over 426 plate appearances this year with a good triple slash in a strong season across the board. Bryson Stott and JT Realmuto are good positional options in the heart of the lineup, they are both creating runs above average and have mid-range power, Stott has nine home runs and Realmuto has a dozen with 12 stolen bases as well. Alec Bohm has a 101 WRC+ ahead of Marsh and his 119, both are hitting well with Bohm slashing .281/.331/.413 and Marsh at .280/.359/.454. Jake Cave rounds out the projected lineup with a $2,300 price tag in the outfield on both sites.
The Pirates draw Zack Wheeler which is pushing the pitcher into the top-five in our projections. Wheeler is a premium option with a 3.88 ERA and 3.47 xFIP on the season, he has struck out 27.1% of opposing hitters and has a sterling 4.6% walk rate. Wheeler is typically very good at limiting premium contact and home runs, he has allowed just a 5.4% barrel rate with 86.7 mph of exit velocity and a 2.02% home run rate this season. For $9,800/$10,600, Wheeler is a bargain on DraftKings and a strong play that is unlikely to be appropriately popular with the public on FanDuel. The Pirates are a middling squad, they rank 20th in baseball by collective WRC+ against right-handed pitching, with several small samples included. Pittsburgh’s lineup has a few recently promoted rookies and a few good players but they do not offer much challenge to Wheeler and they rank 22nd on our board by collective projections with a group home run ranking of 27th out of 28 options tonight. Key Pirates hitters include Jack Suwinski, the team’s home run leader with 21 in 328 plate appearances this season, Suwinski has a 6.34 to lead the team in our home run model today. Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen have 11 and 10 home runs respectively, with Reynolds adding eight stolen bases and McCutchen carrying 10. Both players are above average for run creation this season, they are the team’s best but they are good-not-great players in a bad spot. Ji-Man Choi has a low price and left-handed power but Wheeler is good at keeping that in check. Henry Davis, Jared Triolo, Endy Rodriguez, Nick Gonzales, and Alika Williams round out the projected lineup, they are all rookies and Davis leads the group with 131 MLB plate appearances. Davis has been good with four home runs and three steals with a 111 WRC+ in the small sample, he is the team’s top prospect overall. Triolo has a 74 WRC+ over 92 plate appearances, Rodriguez is a highly regarded prospect catcher who costs just $2,200/$2,500, Gonzales fills infield spots and has two home runs but a 79 WRC+ in 102 plate appearances, and Williams rounds things out with a $2,000 price tag at shortstop on both sites.
Play: Zack Wheeler aggressively, Phillies bats/stacks, small portions of Mitch Keller are OK
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Angels (+167/3.65) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-183/4.95)
Excellent righty Kevin Gausman has the Angels checked to just 3.65 implied runs in Vegas with his team carrying a 4.95-run total as strong favorites in a matchup against newly acquired righty Lucas Giolito, who is making his Angels debut. Gausman has a 32.9% strikeout rate with a 3.18 ERA and 2.91 xFIP over 121.2 innings in just 20 starts, he is excellent for both strikeouts and depth of innings with bonuses in sight on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Gausman is pricey at $10,800/$10,900, he is likely to be fairly popular but he is easily playable on a gigantic slate. Giolito should be a far less publicly selected pitcher, the righty costs just $9,600/$9,500 and has a 3.79 ERA with a 4.33 xFIP and 25.8% strikeout rate on 11.9% swinging-strikes with a 28.6% CSW% this season. Giolito has allowed a bit too much premium contact this season with a 9.8% barrel rate, a 41.5% hard-hit rate, and a 3.94% home run mark. Giolito can be targeted with bats more aggressively than we would recommend going after Gausman, but he is not unplayable in this spot at very low ownership on both sites.
The Angels lineup is a lower-end option with one obvious super-duper-star pushing their average projections up quite a bit in the matchup, even Gausman cannot hold Shohei Ohtani down in our model, he has an 11.98 in the home run model tonight and is always a threat to go deep. Zach Neto is a good option for correlated scoring ahead of Ohtani, he is a prospect with a highly regarded hit tool and he has been effective with a 107 WRC+ while slashing .251/.325/.427 in his first 238 plate appearances in the Show. Ohtani has 38 home runs with a .377 ISO and 183 WRC+ and blows up MLB Twitter on a nightly basis. Mickey Moniak has 11 homers with a .335/.366/.615 triple-slash in a good 191 plate appearances and costs just $4,900/$3,500 in a bad spot. Taylor Ward has been on the rise recently, he is up to 14 home runs with a 107 WRC+ for the season, Mike Moustakas has left-handed power and has been overperforming expectations after a few down seasons. Moustakas has a .264/.336/.447 triple-slash with nine home runs and he has created runs three percent ahead of the curve in 223 plate appearances. Matt Thaiss has lefty power behind the plate for $3,200/$2,500, Hunter Renfroe finally hit his 16th home run the other day, he has massive power potential at the plate for $3,700/$2,900 in the outfield, which is far too cheap for the power hitter. Trey Cabbage and Luis Rengifo round out the lineup as playable parts. On the Blue Jays side several hitters are showing respectable power marks against the contact that Giolito has allowed, the pitcher has been in the mid-to-high three percent home runs range each of the past two years in addition to what he has allowed already this season. George Springer has an 8.80 in the home run model with 13 in the books for the season, he is still cheap for his ceiling in the outfield. Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are tied for the team lead in home runs at 17, Brandon Belt should be hitting between them in the third spot in the lineup as a great discount piece in this stack. Bichette is priced-down to just $5,300/$3,400 at shortstop despite creating runs 32% better than average, Belt costs a mere $3,200/$2,800 despite a 122 WRC+ and an 11.9% barrel rate, and Guerrero is also discounted at $5,100/$3,700. Matt Chapman has an 18% barrel rate and 59.2% hard-hit rate this season, the third baseman has been a good value bat all year, he hits everything hard and has 13 home runs and a 127 WRC+ over 421 opportunities but costs just $4,600/$3,100. Whit Merrifield is a good option at second base and in the outfield on both sites, he is cheap and has moderate power with good speed and has been 13% ahead of the curve for run creation. Daulton Varsho has left pop but has been very inconsistent and sits at just 74 WRC+ for the season. Alejandro Kirk and Kevin Kiermaier are mix-in options late in the lineup.
Play: Kevin Gausman chalk, Lucas Giolito as a low-owned play with talent, minor shares of Blue Jays bats/stacks, minor shares of Angels bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Cleveland Guardians (-133/5.39) @ Chicago White Sox (+123/4.71)
The surging Guardians have won seven of their last 10 and sit at 52-51 on the season and 1.5 games out of first place in the division despite underperforming for roughly 87% of the season to date. The team benefits significantly from playing in a weak division, they would be behind the Yankees at the bottom of the AL East and more than 10 games out of first in that division. Cleveland has not been good overall, but they seem to have come out of their collective slumps as a group, which has benefitted the whole. In a matchup against Touki Toussaint and with a 5.39-run implied total that ranks fourth in non-Coors games and actually sits slightly ahead of one of the Coors teams and only just behind the other. Toussaint has a 4.06 ERA but a 5.08 xFIP in 31 innings and four starts this season, the righty was once a highly regarded prospect but he has barely pitched over the past few seasons and has never fully arrived in the Show. Toussaint has a limited 18.9% strikeout rate and he has walked a wildly unsustainable 16.7% in the small sample while allowing just 4.9% barrels and a 1.52% home run rate with an average launch angle that sits exactly at zero degrees. Toussaint has not been good, he is targetable with Guardians bats but the low home run mark is something to watch as the sample grows. Steven Kwan is up to 102 WRC+ with a .273/.345/.377 triple-slash but still needs to get on base to contribute runs to the team’s cause more frequently if he is going to have regular MLB DFS value. Andres Gimenez has nine homers and 17 stolen bases and costs just $4,000/$2,800 at second base, he has more upside now that he is hitting second in the lineup. Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor are the team’s top two options night in and night out, Ramirez has 16 home runs and 13 stolen bases with a .207 ISO and he strikes out just 9.7% of the time, the star third baseman is spectacular at putting the ball in play and he has created runs 28% better than average this season. Naylor has created runs at the same pace and costs far less at just $4,400/$3,500 at first base, he and Josh Bell are a decision point on the DraftKings slate when stacking Guardians, they both fit only at first base and make for a good rotation to help differentiate lineups. Naylor has 15 home runs this season and Bell has 11 with a disappointing overall output but a 101 WRC+ for just $2,900/$2,800. Will Brennan, Gabriel Arias, Bo Naylor, and Myles Straw round out the lineup, Arias costs the minimum on DraftKings and has eligibility at shortstop and in the outfield, he is a triple-position option at first base, third base, or in the outfield for just $2,200 on FanDuel. Arias has been very inconsistent over 171 plate appearances, he has four home runs with a .122 ISO and 77 WRC+ and is slashing just .196/.304/.318 but he is expected to hit for power at this level and could be a sneaky option. Naylor has four home runs in 81 plate appearances as a cheap catcher option on either site.
The White Sox draw Xavion Curry who will see anywhere between one and three innings to start the game. Curry has been bouncing between non-traditional starts and relief appearances but has been working three innings when he opens games. He did throw an inning of pure relief work just two days ago, so we could be looking at only six hitters or so tonight, the righty does not look like a good idea at an inexplicable $9,000 price tag on DraftKings or at $5,700 on FanDuel. Curry has a 17% strikeout rate and 4.98 xFIP that sits exactly two runs higher than his ERA over 54.1 innings and he projects near the bottom of the board. The White Sox have a respectable 4.71-run implied total in what is looking like a shootout of a game that can be targeted on both sides and could be an interesting game stack for those inclined to chase that construction. Andrew Benintendi briefly got his head above water for run creation but has slipped back to 98 WRC+ over 408 opportunities. The slap-hitting outfielder is slashing .281/.346/.368 with 12 stolen bases, which is far better than what former star Tim Anderson has done on the season. The shortstop has a 56 WRC+ over 344 plate appearances with zero home runs and 10 stolen bases and is slashing just .241/.282/.282 with a 2.8% barrel rate. Anderson and Benintendi are cheap and they play every day in strong spots for correlated scoring, they are on the board in stacks but expectations should remain somewhat low for the scuffling veterans. Luis Robert Jr. is having a massive breakout season with 28 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 427 plate appearances, his 135 WRC+ leads the team. Eloy Jimenez is very discounted at $4,200/$3,300 in the outfield, Jimenez is a star when he is healthy, he has 13 home runs and is slashing .285/.329/.481 while creating runs 21% better than average in his 289 plate appearances this year. Yoan Moncada has been up and down at the plate and in and out of the lineup but he is a good option at a cheap price at third base on both sites when stacking White Sox. Andrew Vaughn, Yasmani Grandal, Jake Burger, and Oscar Colas have potential from the bottom of the lineup. Anyone in that group can take this pitching staff deep for home runs and major batted-ball events, Vaughn has a 102 WRC+ and 12 home runs in 401 chances, and Grandal hit 23 home runs two years ago while getting on base at a .420 clip but the catcher has not been that player this season, Burger has 24 home runs and a .311 ISO but is also not truly that player, and Colas is a rookie who has not delivered at this level but is expected to hit for power.
Play: Guardians bats/stacks, White Sox bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Washington Nationals (+167/3.65) @ New York Mets (-183/4.95)
The Nationals are taking on Max Scherzer on a hot humid night in Queens with the pitcher near the top of the board by raw fantasy point projections. Scherzer has a 27.4% strikeout rate with a 4.20 ERA and 4.13 xFIP in a rocky season. The righty has allowed a surprising 10.3% barrel rate and 5.29% home runs while his still-good strikeout rate has dipped from 30.6% last year and 34.1% the year before with a walk rate that has climbed by two points year over year. Scherzer has an obviously high ceiling and he projects very well in a matchup against one of the lower-end lineups in all of baseball. Washington’s active roster has a collective 89 WRC+ that ranks 25th out of 30 teams against righties this season. Scherzer is a strong option for $9,400 on DraftKings, where he should be rostered aggressively but may be popular. For $10,800 on the blue site, it seems like Scherzer might go a bit under-owned by the public in a great spot, it makes a lot of sense to be well ahead of the field on the outstanding starter, even if he has been slightly off throughout much of the season. The Nationals are a very low-priority stack, they rank dead last by collective projections with a 23rd-ranked home run mark in our stack tool tonight. The Nationals lineup has a few good hitters, CJ Abrams has been putting up star-caliber numbers since moving to the leadoff spot and is up to 96 WRC+ overall, he is cheap at shortstop for $3,900/$2,900 in a bad matchup. Lane Thomas is the team’s best player, the outfielder costs just $4,800/$3,500 despite creating runs 20% better than average on a terrible team. Jeimer Candelario has 16 home runs to tie Thomas’ output this season, his 117 WRC+ is second on the team and the only player other than Thomas to be above league-average for the year. Joey Meneses has been five percent behind the curve and has not hit for power this season despite a good triple-slash and a 40.7% hard-hit rate. Keibert Ruiz is a good option as a cheap catcher despite creating runs 14% behind the curve, Ruiz is a homer-hunting option, he has 11 for the season with an xSLG that sits about 50 points higher than his .391 actual slugging percentage and he costs just $4,000/$2,700. Dominic Smith, Corey Dickerson, Luis Garcia, and Alex Call are all low-end options that are well below league-average this season for run creation and in terrible matchups with Scherzer on the bump.
The Mets are drawing a 4.95-run implied team total against MacKenzie Gore, who has been up and down this season. Gore started out the year very strong before hitting some bumps in the road, he has a lot of talent on the mound and is capable of very good MLB DFS starts against teams in the same range as the Mets, he shut out the Giants over five innings while allowing four hits, walking two, and striking out eight in his most recent start and he still has a 28% strikeout rate overall this season. Gore has a 4.37 ERA with a 3.73 xFIP and a very good 12.9% swinging-strike rate this season. Gore has allowed too much premium contact with 11.2% barrels and a 45.7% hard-hit rate, but there is potential at very low popularity and good $7,300/$8,900 pricing, the lefty ranks in the top third of our pitching board but he sits well below his opponent. Brandon Nimmo leads off the projected and playable New York lineup, he has 15 home runs and a 124 WRC+ as a terrific leadoff option. Tommy Pham is projected to be back in the lineup hitting second, the outfielder has had a good bounceback season with nine home runs and 11 stolen bases while creating runs 25% better than average and winning a full-time role. Francisco Lindor is still hitting for power and stealing bases, he is discounted significantly on DraftKings at just $4,800/$3,800 at shortstop. Pete Alonso has 28 home runs and a .280 ISO with a 9.44 in our home run model tonight, he is also at a big discount on DraftKings for $4,900/$3,900. Francisco Alvarez has become a star behind the plate, he has 19 home runs and a .262 ISO while barreling 12.6% of his batted-ball events and creating runs 16% better than average in his excellent rookie year. Alvarez costs $3,800/$3,100 and is playable on both sites. Mark Vientos is another power-hitting youngster in the lineup, he has one home run in the show in 64 chances this year but has major potential and has managed a 12.2% barrel rate and 53.7% hard hits in the tiny sample despite the lack of results. Veterans Mark Canha and Danny Mendick are mix-in options with Canha far more likely to contribute between the two. Brett Baty is yet another high-end rookie in this lineup, he has not delivered much in 278 plate appearances but does have a 45.1% hard-hit rate that we will continue to mention until he starts hitting.
Play: Max Scherzer enthusiastically, MacKenzie Gore value, Mets bats/stacks as a mid-level option
Update Notes:
Milwaukee Brewers (+151/4.43) @ Atlanta Braves (-164/5.68)
The Brewers are in Atlanta as big underdogs with Yonny Chirinos making his first start for the Braves after being claimed on waivers. Chirinos is a moderately effective right-hander who has just an 11.8% strikeout rate with a 4.02 ERA and 5.38 xFIP on the season. He should be making a traditional start in this spot but the output has not been strong and his innings are somewhat in question, this will be his fifth start of the year as he typically pitches in a hybrid role. Even at $6,600/$6,300, Chirinos is difficult to rely on in this situation, though that does not lead directly to the Brewers’ bats. Milwaukee is carrying just a 4.43-run implied total as a low-rated option on tonight’s deep slate, they rank just 26th out of 28 teams by both projections and home run potential in the matchup. Milwaukee’s projected lineup features Christian Yelich in the top spot, he has 15 home runs and 22 steals this season and is underpriced and under-appreciated across the industry at $5,400/$3,700. William Contreras has a 47.3% hard-hit rate with 10 home runs on the board and a 113 WRC+, he is one of the few productive players in the Brewers low-scoring lineup. Willy Adames has power at shortstop, he hit 17 home runs in 400 plate appearances so far this year but sits at just 86 WRC+. Sal Frelick is a highly-regarded rookie with a good statistical line over his first 18 plate appearances, he costs just $3,400/$2,900 and will be popular in stacks of Brewers hitters. Andruw Monasterio has been productive over a larger sample, he has a 119 WRC+ in 111 plate appearances with one home run and four stolen bases. Blake Perkins, Owen Miller, Brice Turang, and Joey Wiemer are all mix-in options at best. Perkins has a 77 WRC+ in 128 opportunities and has not done much with his chance at regular time this season, Miller is capable but below-average for run creation, he has five home runs and 13 stolen bases on the season, Turang has disappointed and sits 41% below average for run creation while Wiemer has provided 12 homers and 11 steals but checks in 18% below average by WRC+.
The Braves lead the world once again, they have the highest collective fantasy point projections on our stacks board and their 5.68-run implied total sits second overall on the slate behind the Dodgers and ahead of both of the teams playing at Coors Field tonight. Atlanta is slated to face righty Adrian Houser, who has a 3.86 ERA with a 4.50 xFIP and just a 17.7% strikeout rate this season. Houser is typically good at checking power, he has Atlanta’s stout lineup somewhat limited by comparison to where we normally find them in the home run model, but there is significant upside in this spot and he has not been as sharp at keeping the ball in the yard this year as in previous seasons. Houser has a 2.53% home run rate with a 6.8% barrel rate and 43.7% hard hits, all of which are up year over year. The righty is not an option even at $5,500/$6,600. Ronald Acuna Jr. leads off with a .327/.407/.569 triple-slash, 14.7% barrels, 56.6% hard hits, 23 home runs, 48 stolen bases, and a .242 ISO, amounting to a run creation mark that outpaces league-average by 61%. The outfielder is a star who is playable every day of the week atop this outrageous lineup. Ozzie Albies has slid back down to a $5,600/$3,900 price tag, he has 24 home runs and a 116 WRC+ as one of the best second basemen in baseball. Austin Riley surged to 22 home runs and is looking far more like himself both statistically and at the plate, he costs $6,000/$3,800 at third base and is a strong buy when stacking Braves. Matt Olson and Sean Murphy have 49 home runs combined, Olson has 32 of them. The first baseman has created runs 48% better than average with a titanic .312 ISO while Murphy has a .282/.380/.546 triple-slash to go with his home run output. Marcell Ozuna is cheap at $3,800/$2,900 as is Eddie Rosario at $3,700/$2,700. The veterans are having strong seasons for power with 18 and 15 home runs respectively. Orlando Arcia is a highly productive shortstop who is rarely popular and never expensive, he has a 110 WRC+ from the eighth spot in the lineup, Michael Harris II is up to 106 WRC+ with 13 stolen bases, and is a stellar option hitting ninth.
Play: Braves bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Minnesota Twins (-155/5.60) @ Kansas City Royals (+142/4.52)
The Twins are a huge favorite with a massive 5.60-run implied total in Kansas City in a matchup with righty Brady Singer who has not been what was expected this season. Singer has a 5.55 ERA and a 4.36 xFIP on the year, he has been pitching better than his results would suggest but there is still not much to reply on for MLB DFS scoring even at $6,400/$7,800, given an 18.8% strikeout rate and an 8.9% swinging-strike rate. The righty has not been as bad as advertised this season, but the conditions in Kansas City are strongly favoring hitting on a hot humid windy day and the high-strikeout Twins are looking like a good option for scoring. Carlos Correa has 12 home runs and a .173 ISO while creating runs five percent worse than average, while he has not been nearly himself for most of the season he has clear any-given-slate upside for $4,500/$2,900 at shortstop. Edouard Julien has been a star over the last month or more, he has 10 home runs and a .250 ISO overall in 200 plate appearances and looks like a good young player who will stick at this level. Julien costs just $3,300 at second base on DraftKings but is a $3,400 option at the position on the blue site, he is in play on both but a bargain on DraftKings. Alex Kirilloff has eight home runs with a .275/.364/.454 triple-slash and is another cheap bat ahead of the discounted Max Kepler, whose power comes for just $2,800 in the outfield on either site. Kepler has 14 home runs in 280 opportunities this year and is sporting a 44.1% hard-hit rate with a .202 ISO and 99 WRC+. Byron Buxton has just a 91 WRC+ with 17 home runs and he sits below the Mendoza line at .195/.284/.418 this year. Jorge Polanco should be back in the lineup for the Twins, which gives their infield a good boost for power and run creation, he has made just 127 plate appearances this season but has five home runs and a 103 WRC+ in the small sample and a long track record of quality overall. Matt Wallner costs $2,100/$2,700, the prospect outfielder has four home runs and a .275 ISO over his first 62 plate appearances this year and hit two in 65 chances in a cup of coffee last year. Christian Vazquez and Michael A. Taylor round out the lineup as playable parts.
The Twins will have a much better starter attempting to pitch through the hitting-friendly conditions, righty Sonny Gray projects as a top-five option on our deep pitching board and looks like a very good play at $9,300/$10,100 against one of baseball’s worst lineups. Of course, the Royals are drawing a 4.52-run implied total for a reason, Gray is not a safe option but he is likely to go under-owned across the industry in a great matchup on paper. Gray has a 23.5% strikeout rate with a 3.15 ERA and 3.81 xFIP on the season and he has checked home runs to an amazing 0.64% over 111.1 innings in 20 starts. Gray has been a solid performer over the course of his career, while he may fall short of ace-caliber, he is a solid tier-two starter against a team with a collective 25.8% strikeout rate and terrible run creation abilities. Maikel Garcia leads off the projected Kansas City lineup, he has a .273/.322/.381 triple-slash with a 91 WRC+ as a limited leadoff option with a short track record, the rookie has been displaying an OK hit tool and has four home runs and 14 stolen bases. Bobby Witt Jr. has 16 home runs and 28 stolen bases but just a 93 WRC+ and is still getting on base at just a .290 clip. MJ Melendez mashes at the plate but does not see frequent success after he connects, his 12% barrel rate and 51.9% hard hits are misaligned with only eight home runs and a .140 ISO in 394 plate appearances. We continue to believe that Melendez will hit for good power more consistently in the Show, but that may not happen this year. Sal Perez is a star catcher, he has 17 home runs on the season with a .189 ISO but has created runs eight percent below the league average in a weak-for-him season. Nick Pratto has lefty pop and seven home runs in 299 plate appearances but also a 37.5% strikeout rate that should help Gray’s cause. Kyle Isbel, Edward Olivares, Michael Massey, and Drew Waters are low-end options who are all well below league average for run creation.
Play: Sonny Gray, Twins bats/stacks, Brady Singer is OK as a value dart
Update Notes:
Tampa Bay Rays (-107/4.33) @ Houston Astros (-101/4.26)
The Rays have suddenly scuffling Shane McClanahan on the mound against Cristian Javier who has not been himself for most of the season on the mound in an interesting matchup tonight. Vegas is still favoring the pitching with Tampa Bay carrying just a 4.33-run implied total to Houston’s 4.26 mark, but there is believable upside for both lineups as well. Javier has pitched to a 4.32 ERA but he has a 5.04 xFIP and just a 22.2% strikeout rate which has plummeted from 33.2% and a 3.53 xFIP in 25 starts last year and 30.7% in 101.1 innings of hybrid work the year before. Javier has a significant ceiling but he has rarely reached it and he is facing one of the top offenses in baseball this season, the righty is difficult to put full faith in on a deep pitching slate in this matchup for $8,600/$9,000 but he is not off the board. McClanahan was excellent to start the season but he has been allowing runs and striking out fewer hitters across the last month or so of the season. McClanahan still projects very well in our model, he is a top-five option on the slate and he can be expected for very low popularity from site to site. Overall, the lefty has a 26.1% strikeout rate with a 2.89 ERA and 3.86 xFIP with a too-high 9.6% walk rate but a phenomenal 15.7% swinging-strike rate. The Astros got both of their missing stars back in the lineup this week, they are in full form and will threaten McClanahan, who is not safe but is highly playable in this situation on both sites. The $10,400/$9,900 price tag will keep the public fairly at bay on the McClanahan play which enhances his appeal even with the Astros opposing him.
Tampa Bay’s lineup opens with Brandon Lowe who has significant power potential and 11 home runs in 261 plate appearances with a .197 ISO and 105 WRC+ this season. Lowe costs just $4,100/$2,900 which is too cheap for his ceiling as the best power-hitting second baseman in the game. Wander Franco has 11 home runs and 28 stolen bases and has created runs 10% better than average as a star shortstop, Randy Arozarena costs $5,500/$3,600 in the outfield, he has 17 home runs and 11 stolen bases with a 132 WRC+, and Luke Raley is slated to hit cleanup for just $4,200/$3,000 with eligibility at first base and in the outfield. Raley has 15 homers and 11 stolen bases in 281 plate appearances this year and has mashed everything with a 14.1% barrel rate and 46.6% hard-hit rate. Isaac Paredes is a good option at third base for $3,800 on DraftKings, he fills three positions for just $3,000 on the blue site and has mashed 18 home runs despite just a 29.1% hard-hit rate. Harold Ramirez, Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, and Christian Bethancourt are all strong options in stacks of Rays, this lineup typically plays 1-9 in most of its configurations. Siri is the most appealing late-lineup option, he has 20 home runs in just 242 plate appearances in a major breakout for power at the plate. On the Astros side, the names are somewhat obvious, with Jose Altuve back at the top of the lineup. Altuve is a star second baseman with a 132 WRC+ this season, he is hitting ahead of disappointing Jeremy Pena and the team’s power core and has major individual upside. Pena is a playable part but he has created runs 17% behind the curve with low-end production of counting stats and a lousy triple-slash. The power trio of Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez is very tough on pitchers, the two lefties, Tucker and Alvarez, do not suffer in same-handed matchups and the three players have 18, 17, and 17 home runs respectively this season. Alvarez is a superstar who belongs in most stacks of Astros whenever he is in the lineup. Jose Abreu has a 77 WRC+ for the season with eight home runs in 417 plate appearances but he is a playable part when stacking Astros hitters, Chas McCormick has 13 home runs and 11 steals while creating runs 46% better than average in a breakout season, and the lineup closes with Corey Julks and Martin Maldonado mix-ins.
Play: Shane McClanahan, Rays bats/stacks, Astros bats/stacks in small portions, Cristian Javier as a mix-in
Update Notes:
Chicago Cubs (+130/3.94) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-165/4.83)
The Cubs are carrying just a 3.94-run implied total against southpaw Jordan Montgomery who has been mostly effective despite disappointing in a few key starts for MLB DFS gamers. Montgomery projects in the middle of the board for $8,100/$9,400 tonight, he has a 3.37 ERA and 3.95 xFIP that make the 3.94-run total look pretty accurate. Montgomery has a 21.7% strikeout rate, he is not a dominant pitcher on the mound but he works effective innings and typically sees the sixth inning and a shot at bonuses on both sites. Montgomery is an option at his discounted price on DraftKings as a good mixer, for $9,400 on FanDuel his potential is a bit more limited on the deep slate but he is worth a few shares. With Nico Hoerner back in the leadoff role and Seiya Suzuki sliding up to second, the Cubs actually have what should be the more productive version of their lineup in place in a construction sense. Hoerner is affordable at second base, he has 25 stolen bases and a 101 WRC+ over 433 plate appearances this year and makes for a correlation play. Suzuki has eight homers and five stolen bases but has created runs one percent ahead of the curve while getting on base at a .340 clip. Ian Happ sets the table very well for hitters behind him with a .372 on-base percentage, he has a 113 WRC+ with nine home runs and nine stolen bases. Cody Bellinger slots in at first base or the outfield as the team’s top bat and most expensive player. Bellinger has been excellent in a return to form this season, he is slashing .317/.364/.546 with a .229 ISO and 142 WRC+ and is waiting on a trade call to take him to a contender. Dansby Swanson has been a bit behind his typical output but he is affordable at shortstop with 12 home runs and a 117 WRC+ this season. Trey Mancini has veteran pop from the right side, Patrick Wisdom mashes home runs but does little else, he has 17 long balls and a .282 ISO but just a .192/.291/.474 triple-slash with his 105 WRC+ in a part-time role. Miguel Amaya rounds out the lineup for $2,500/$2,400 at the catcher spot.
The Cardinals are facing veteran southpaw Drew Smyly who does not look like a great bet for quality at $5,700/$7,800 but could deliver just enough as a value SP2 dart on DraftKings to keep him in the discussion. Smyly projects in the bottom half of the pitching pool, he has a 4.60 ERA and 4.81 xFIP with just a 20.1% strikeout rate this season, the Cardinals offense looks like the better option and they have a playable 4.83-run implied total in Vegas. Brendan Donovan is in the leadoff role even with a lefty on the mound lately, he has a 121 WRC+ on the season with 11 home runs but suffers in the same-handed matchup overall. Paul Goldschmidt has 18 home runs and a 134 WRC+ on the season, Nolan Arenado is at 22 long balls with a 130 mark for run creation, and Tyler O’Neill has missed most of the season but was a major source of power with 34 home runs the last time he was fully healthy in 2021. Jordan Walker is a good right-handed rookie who has produced a 113 WRC+ over his first 247 plate appearances with nine home runs and four steals in the Show so far. Dylan Carlson, Paul DeJong, Taylor Motter, and Andrew Knizner round out the projected lineup as mix-and-match options. Carlson and DeJong are the preferred bats in the group, the outfielder has a 96 WRC+ and DeJong sits exactly at league average and has hit 13 home runs in just 297 plate appearances as a cheap low-owned shortstop on a nightly basis.
Play: Cardinals bats/stacks, Jordan Montgomery, Drew Smyly value darts as a low-expectation SP2 option on DraftKings
Update Notes:
Oakland Athletics (+112/5.09) @ Colorado Rockies (-121/5.53)
The game in Colorado has Kyle Freeland on one side and JP Sears on the other. Both lefties are taking on awful clubs who do not perform well in splits, but the ballpark situation is obviously significantly geared toward hitting and we typically require higher-end pitchers, even against bad teams, to roster starters in Coors, particularly on such a deep slate. Neither Freeland nor Sears is on our pitching board today. The visiting Athletics are a middling option with a 5.09-run implied total but lousy overall fantasy point projections in a spot that is primarily drawing attention because of the ballpark. Oakland’s projected lineup has Tony Kemp in the leadoff role, he has a 76 WRC+ and a .300 on-base percentage this season for $4,400/$2,900. Zack Gelof has a good 9.41 mark in our home run model, the rookie has one long ball on the board in his 45 plate appearances since a recent promotion to the Show. Brent Rooker costs $3,800/$3,200, he has obvious power on the right night but has been sitting on 16 home runs for some time now and has hit only five home runs since the start of June and seven since the start of May. Jordan Diaz costs $3,100/$2,800 with multi-position eligibility, he has six home runs with a 99 WRC+ in 131 opportunities. Ramon Laureano has five homers and eight stolen bases in a low-end season, he has been a double-digit producer for both stats in years past but is not a priority hitter outside of stacks of Athletics. Aledmys Diaz, JJ Bleday, Shea Langeliers, and Nick Allen round out the lousy version of the Oakland lineup against the lefty starter. Diaz is a career utility man, Bleday is a capable lefty with a bit of pop but low-end results early in his career, Langeliers has cheap power at catcher, and Allen is a slap-hitting defender. The Athletics are likely to draw some popularity in this spot, they are not a premium option overall but the ballpark can bolster even the worst of lineups, which this is.
The Rockies are facing the better of these two pitchers, Sears would be the “gun to your head” choice between starters at Coors Field given his 22.2% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate, and 4.19 ERA (but a 5.04 xFIP). The lefty is more likely to somewhat check the Rockies’ offense than he is to post a DFS-relevant score himself, but Vegas sees things differently with Colorado totaled at 5.53 implied runs. Similarly to their opponent, the Rockies have a pretty lousy lineup, particularly when facing lefties. The Rockies are also being boosted primarily by the ballpark factors in this matchup, they are playable like the Athletics but undercutting any widespread popularity should be a first instinct for sharp gamers. Jurickson Profar is bad in the leadoff role, he has a 75 WRC+ for the season and costs $3,900/$3,200 in the outfield. Ezequiel Tovar is a better athlete and should have a good career once he hits his stride, he currently sits at 77 WRC+ with 10 home runs and five stolen bases in a low-end rookie campaign. Ryan McMahon struggles against same-handed pitching, his power will be missed in the light-hitting lineup when facing a southpaw. CJ Cron has big right-handed power at the plate, he has 11 home runs in 211 plate appearances with a .224 ISO and a 16.3% barrel rate this season, the first baseman is cheap for his potential at the plate in this matchup at $4,700/$3,600. Elias Diaz is an affordable catcher who has produced solid results this season, Randal Grichuk is a veteran on the trade block with a capable bat for power and hits, Elehuris Montero should not be skipped late in the lineup, he is a highly regarded rookie who has just three home runs and a 34 WRC+ over 116 plate appearances this season but he hit six homers in 185 opportunities last year and has a fair amount of anticipated power from the right side. Alan Trejo and Brenton Doyle are playable parts in a Coors Field game, Doyle has seven homers and 14 stolen bases in 228 opportunities.
Play: bats on both sides but an undercut is an easy option if they are popular, there are several other spots with similar or higher run totals and these are two lousy offenses
Update Notes:
Texas Rangers (+142/3.61) @ San Diego Padres (-154/4.47)
The Rangers are checked dramatically to just 3.61 implied runs with Joe Musgrove on the mound for the hometown Padres, but the righty is carrying just a good but mid-board projection on the deep slate. Musgrove costs $9,700/$9,800 on this slate, he is closer to the top projected options than the bottom of the board with a 24.5% strikeout rate and a 3.25 ERA with a 3.70 xFIP on the season. Musgrove is a good pitcher in a good park with a tough opponent on the other side, but he has a fairly high ceiling and can be deployed at these prices with a fair amount of confidence in at least a competent performance on the mound. The righty is almost certainly going to be low-owned in this situation, which enhances the appeal to a degree. On the other side, righty Dane Dunning is capable of delivering the odd high-ceiling start and is somewhat adept at keeping the ball in the yard, but he has a limited strikeout upside with a current-year rate of just 15.4% and a peak around 22%. Dunning is priced at just $6,000/$7,400, he projects in the lower third of the pitching board but would represent a dart throw at very good value prices. While it would be surprising, it would not be entirely mind-blowing to see Dunning succeed to some degree in this matchup.
The Rangers lineup is still without Corey Seager, but they have numerous playable parts in this matchup with Marcus Semien leading the way at second base. Semien has a 121 WRC+ with 15 home runs and nine stolen bases this season and his price has dipped slightly on both sites. Travis Jankowski is projected to hit second, he has a good triple slash with 15 steals as a correlated scoring play from high in the lineup and should probably lead off ahead of Semien while Seager is out. Nathaniel Lowe is a strong option at a fair price for just $4,100/$3,500 at first base, he has 12 home runs and a 133 WRC+ in another good season at the plate. Adolis Garcia is the nominal star in the lineup, he has 25 home runs with a .254 ISO, a 16.4% barrel rate and 49.1% hard hits this season and is fairly affordable at $5,400/$3,900. Josh Jung and Ezequiel Duran have had good breakout seasons at the plate, Jung has 20 home runs and Duran has 13 with five stolen bases, Jung has been 21% better than average for run creation and Duran sits 27% ahead of the curve. Brad Miller has had a capable career at the plate, the lefty has not done much in 64 plate appearances this season but he costs just $2,400 at second base or shortstop on DraftKings and is a $2,200 first baseman on FanDuel. Mitch Garver and Leody Taveras are strong options in the eighth and ninth spots, Garver has good catcher power and Taveras is a good outfielder who has created runs 12% better than average from the ninth spot this season. On the Padres side things are typically top-heavy with Ha-Seong Kim having a career year at 14 home runs and 19 stolen bases in just 381 plate appearances already both as career highs. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 17 long balls and 16 steals, Juan Soto is a superstar hitter with 20 homers and a .239 ISO and he has created runs 52% better than average this season, and Manny Machado is tied with Soto with 20 homers on the board as well. Machado has bounced back strongly after a slow first half, he costs just $5,100/$3,800 and is looking more and more like himself at the plate. Xander Bogaerts has 11 home runs and 11 stolen bases and a 111 WRC+ in a nice bit of symmetry in an up-and-down season. The lineup dies on the vine a bit around Jake Cronenworth, Luis Campusano, Alfonso Rivas, and Trent Grisham, the last of whom is down to a 97 WRC+ for the season.
Play: Joe Musgrove, Padres bats/stacks, Dane Dunning value darts, Rangers bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Seattle Mariners (-123/4.76) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+114/4.34)
Seattle is carrying a 4.76-run implied total in the desert with lefty Tommy Henry on the mound and with strong home run potential showing through in our model. Seattle’s lineup has five hitters who are above the “magic number” for home run potential on this slate. Henry has allowed a 3.37% home run rate on 7.7% barrels and a very good 31.5% hard-hits in 83 innings this season but was lousy for power over nine starts and 47 innings last year. He has grown a bit on the mound and the ability to check power could be developing, but he still has a 4.01 ERA and an ugly 5.49 xFIP with just a 16.3% strikeout rate. Even the high-strikeout Mariners have a chance to connect against Henry, who does not project well on the mound. The lefty has very limited appeal at $6,700 on DraftKings and none at $8,400 on FanDuel. Seattle’s flawed lineup opens with productive leadoff man JP Crawford who has created runs 22% better than average this season and is cheap at the position. Julio Rodriguez has 17 home runs and 23 stolen bases with a team-leading 12.96 in our home run model and a 51.9% hard-hit rate on the year. Rodriguez is cheap for his tools on the field at $5,200/$3,700. Eugenio Suarez has 14 home runs with a .226/.325/.386 triple-slash and a 104 WRC+ in 434 plate appearances, the power output is slightly down but he has pulled things into form over the last two months. Teoscar Hernandez and Tommy Murphy have major power potential in the heart of the lineup, Hernandez has 16 home runs and a .175 ISO while Murphy has seven homers and a .276 ISO in just 127 opportunities as a cheap under-owned catcher bat. Ty France has a good hit tool but has underperformed badly this season, Cal Raleigh is another power-hitting catcher at a cheap price, and the lineup rounds out with capable cheap bats in the infield in Dylan Moore and Jose Caballero.
Right-handed starter Logan Gilbert has a sparkling 4.4% walk rate with a 24.4% strikeout rate and just a 3.88 ERA and 3.73 xFIP across 118.1 mostly very good innings in his 20 starts. The righty has allowed a 3.37% home run rate with 9.2% barres and 90.1 mph of exit velocity, so not everything has been perfect, but he has a fairly high ceiling for just $9,000/$9,700. The Diamondbacks are not an easy opponent, but Gilbert projects in the upper-middle portion of the board, call it the top of the third tier out of five, against the low-strikeout productive Diamondbacks. Geraldo Perdomo has a .392 on-base percentage and 125 WRC+ and should be a great option in the leadoff role for this club, he is cheap as a correlated scoring play at $4,100/$2,900. Ketel Marte has 17 homers and a 137 WRC+ over 422 plate appearances in another strong season, he is a $5,600/$3,800 player who is one of the top options at his position. Corbin Carroll has turned into a star, he has a 41.6% hard-hit rate and 9.1% barrel rate with 21 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 400 outstanding plate appearances. Carroll is pricey at $6,000/$4,100 in a tough matchup but he is a must when stacking Diamondbacks hitters. Christian Walker slots in with power upside and an excellent strikeout rate of just 18.4% with 22 home runs on the board, he is always affordable at first base and is rarely as popular as he should be. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has 15 home runs and a 99 WRC+, and Emmanuel Rivera has a .290/.332/.415 triple-slash in 208 plate appearances and has created runs one percent better than average, and the lineup closes with Jake McCarthy’s speed, Carson Kelly’s catcher positioning and Alek Thomas’ low-end power/speed blend all at cheap prices.
Play: Logan Gilbert, Mariners bats/stacks, Diamondbacks bats/stacks as a mid-level option
Update Notes:
Cincinnati Reds (+202/3.84) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-223/5.78)
The most lopsided contest of the day and the slate’s highest implied team total in Vegas come in one of the late-night hammer spots, with the Dodgers looking outstanding against lefty Brandon Williamson and the Reds drawing good projections despite just a 3.84-run implied total against Bobby Miller, who has been mostly good over 54.2 innings and 10 starts. Miller has a 23.2% strikeout rate with a seven percent walk rate and has pitched to a 4.28 ERA with a 4.04 xFIP in his 10 outings. The righty is a highly-regarded rookie but the Dodgers’ acquisition of Lance Lynn, with more pitching likely to be added, shows where he slots into the team’s playoff plans. Miller is expected to succeed at this level but he is not an apex pitcher and the Reds have a productive lineup to throw at him, if they are not overly popular it might make sense to occupy a bit of a position on the less owned side of this game while grabbing a significant share of Dodgers bats as well. Miller can be utilized for $7,700/$8,700 on both sites, he has the talent to pitch through the young Reds and post a slate-relevant fantasy score. Williamson has a 4.08% home run rate with a 4.60 ERA and 5.10 xFIP and has struck out just 18.8% in 58.2 innings and 12 starts this season. The lefty is not in play at $5,800/$6,700 against the terrific Dodgers lineup.
Elly De La Cruz costs $6,100/$3,700 with six home runs and 17 stolen bases in his ledger after 187 plate appearances. The rookie has a 94 WRC+ and has struck out at a 32.6% clip, but he produces seemingly every time he puts bat on ball successfully and is a stick of dynamite atop the Cincinnati lineup. TJ Friedl is a good option for $4,300/$3,400 that helps pay for the cost of De La Cruz and third-hitter Matt McLain, both of whom are better than Friedl. The outfielder has a .287/.355/.436 triple-slash with 16 stolen bases and seven home runs in 327 opportunities, McLain outpaces him with 10 home runs and eight steals in just 284 plate appearances and he has a team-leading 133 WRC+. Jake Fraley has left-handed pop in the cleanup role for $4,900/$3,300, he has 14 home runs and 17 stolen bases with a 115 mark for run creation. Jonathan India has been two percent behind the curve for run creation but has produced counting stats this year with 14 home runs and 12 stolen bases and has been a better overall hitter in years past. India is easy to rely on for $4,400/$3,300 at second base. Joey Votto has power for days for just $4,600/$3,200 at first base, if you missed his hilarious good-natured rant against Chris “Mad Dog” Russo the other day take a moment to check out the hilarious clip. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is a major power prospect late in the lineup, he has one home run in his first 30 plate appearances and had 20 with a 300+ ISO in his AAA season before his promotion. Tyler Stephenson and Will Benson are strong options at the end of the batting order, Stephenson provides capable output at the catcher position and Benson has been extremely productive in 174 plate appearances with a 139 WRC+, seven homers, and 10 stolen bases. On the Dodgers side of things, whoever one can afford to combine in a lineup should be in play in stacks and the team should be rostered aggressively, even if they are somewhat popular on the slate. Mookie Betts has 27 home runs and has created runs 53% better than average while striking out just 16% of the time and walking at a 13.8% clip. Freddie Freeman strikes out 17.6% of the time and walks 10.8% while slashing .328/.409/.581 to lead the team and top the board among MLB first basemen. Freeman has a 165 WRC+ to lead the highly productive team. Will Smith is an excellent catcher who is slashing .286/.392/.486 with 13 home runs in 339 plate appearances. JD Martinez has monumental power in the heart of the lineup, he has 25 home runs on the season to tie with teammate Max Muncy for second behind Betts. Chris Taylor has 12 homers in just 217 plate appearances and slots in between Martinez and Muncy in the projected lineup. Enrique Hernandez found his way back to the Dodgers in a trade, he is a mix-in option along with Amed Rosario and James Outman in the new form of the bottom of the lineup. Rosario will be interesting to watch, given his tools in a more productive lineup and a zero-pressure spot in the batting order.
Play: Dodgers bats/stacks aggressively, Reds bats/stacks, Bobby Miller value
Update Notes:
Boston Red Sox (+125/3.75) @ San Francisco Giants (-136/4.34)
The final game of the slate sees the Red Sox at a limited 3.75-run implied total against solid right-handed starter Logan Webb who projects in the middle of the board but has upside beyond that spot for $10,200/$10,500 at what should be very limited popularity. Webb has a 3.48 ERA and an excellent 2.95 xFIP this season and he has struck out 25.4% of opposing hitters in a nice step back toward his previous output of 26.5% in 2021. Webb is typically very good at keeping the ball in the park, he has allowed only a 3.1-degree launch angle this season with an 8.3% barrel rate and 2.99% home runs, last year that was even better with just 1.40% home runs on a 3.1-degree angle and 5.5% barrels. Webb is a good option as a low-owned highly capable pitcher in whom we have a significant amount of faith even if he does not project to the very top of the board. The Red Sox have payable parts but they are not carrying much confidence in Vegas and Webb’s knack for checking home runs is going to cut into their upside. Jarren Duran has been excellent in the leadoff role and has a 132 WRC+ overall for the season with power and speed supporting his individual scoring upside. Justin Turner is having another great year at the plate, slashing .289/.359/.481 with a .193 ISO and 16 home runs in 423 plate appearances. Masatka Yoshida is another good option for sequencing and correlation against Webb, he has a .316/.378/.500 triple-slash and has created runs 38% better than average in 2023. Rafael Devers will be limited by the lack of home run upside, but if anyone can get one against Webb this is our option, Devers has a 4.73 to lead the team in our home run model tonight. Adam Duvall has power from the right side of the plate and has created runs 23% better than average with eight homers in his 162 plate appearances this year. Alex Verdugo and Triston Casas have very good left-handed bats late in the lineup, Verdugo has a knack for getting on base and a good hit tool and Casas both gets on base and hits for power, he has a .224 ISO and 15 home runs on the season. Connor Wong has a good contact profile as a cheap catcher and Yu Chang is a cheap infielder with a 53 WRC+ in 88 plate appearances to close out the lineup.
The Red Sox will throw righty Kutter Crawford at the Giants, he is a low-end value dart for $6,500/$7,200 on this slate. Crawford has a 23.9% strikeout rate with a 4.04 ERA and 4.22 xFIP this season but has allowed too much premium contact with a 4.15% home run rate and 9.5% barrels, on a deep slate he is merely a mix-in option with low confidence but very cheap prices and a respectable strikeout ceiling. The Giants have a middling 4.34-run implied total and do not look like a priority option in this matchup either. San Francisco has a lineup loaded with good-not-great players, they lack star power but do have some punch at the plate with a handful of good lefty power bats that will slot in well against Crawford’s contact issues. LaMonte Wade Jr. leads off with nine home runs and a .399 on-base percentage while creating runs 31% better than average in a good season. Joc Pederson has made a career out of mashing mediocre righties, he has 10 home runs and a .209 ISO in 244 chances. JD Davis has right-handed power ahead of Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski, who have hit 13 and 11 home runs respectively this season. Everyone in the group is at or above the league-average for run creation so far this year. Luis Matos slips to 87 WRC+, he is a hit-and-speed-focused outfielder at a cheap price, Parick Bailey has provided capable plate appearances as a catcher but is down to just 98 WRC+ with Brett Wisely and Marco Luciano rounding-out the lineup. Luciano is a major power prospect at the plate, he has made just two plate appearances and costs $2,500/$2,400 at shortstop on both sites, he should be included in most stacks of Giants hitters.
Play: Logan Webb, Giants bats/stacks, Red Sox bats/stacks in small portions
Update Notes:
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