The 11-game Tuesday evening main slate is shaping up like another day that will be filled with fireworks at the plate with more limited options on the mound. There are a few premium starters at the peak of the slate, but the board thins out to a shaky mid-range fairly quickly and some of the bottom-level starters are major targets for bats on this slate. Several of the top overall teams in the game, and some struggling but star-powered lineups like the Yankees, are showing good marks for power and run creation against some of the less-than-likely arms of the night. The angle into this slate is to take a broad spread across the top stacks on the board while concentrating on the premium pitchers and a selection of options at a range of prices from mid-level pitchers like Tanner Bibee, Logan Gilbert, and even possibly Wade Miley as a value dart lefty against a Rockies lineup that is inept against lefties. This should create a strong blend of hitting combinations with enough room to utilize all of the available options, whereas those who focus only on the most expensive or chalky pitchers are walking down common construction paths with much of the field.
Don’t miss our Suggested Stacks feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
Join us at 4:15 ET for a rundown on today’s slate.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 8/8/23
Houston Astros (-125/4.25) @ Baltimore Orioles (+116/3.84)
The Astros open the slate against the Orioles and rookie hurler Grayson Rodriguez who has been effective in four starts since his return to the Show. Rodriguez is one of the most highly regarded pitching prospects in the game, he has posted a 25.6% strikeout rate over 68 innings and 14 starts in the Majors this season. The righty dealt with premium contact issues and home runs early in the season but he has not allowed a long ball in the four starts since his July 17th return and he struck out six twice and four twice in the sample. Rodriguez allowed four runs to the Dodgers in his first start back, two to the Rays in Tampa in a six-strikeout 5.2-inning game, he shut out the Yankees over 6.1 innings while striking out four and walking two, and then he went 5.2 against the Blue Jays in Toronto, allowing three runs on two hits while striking out six and walking two. Rodriguez is pitching more like the starter he is supposed to be than he was early in the season, but his overall numbers are still lousy so he may go under-utilized at cheap prices in a bad matchup. Rodriguez has a 6.09 ERA but a 3.78 xFIP that tells more of the truth, his 9.9% barrel rate and 47.4% hard-hit rate with a 4.38% home run rate are frightening to throw at the visiting Astros, but Vegas has the Houston squad limited to just 4.25 implied runs and the starter has turned a corner. Rodriguez is on the board as a value option for $6,900/$6,800, he projects in the middle of the shallow pitching pool. The Astros are also very playable in this both-sided situation. The team ranks fifth by collective fantasy point projections and fourth overall for home run potential, and they have several excellent options in the lineup on any given slate. Second baseman Jose Altuve has eight home runs and 10 stolen bases while creating runs 45% better than average in his injury-shortened season. For $5,500/$4,200, Altuve is a strong option at his position, he has a .281/.380/.500 triple-slash and has been a longtime reliable star atop this lineup. Alex Bregman is cheap for his ceiling at just $4,900/$3,200 at third base, he has 18 home runs with a .167 ISO and 112 WRC+ this season. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker have massive power from the left side, Alvarez is sitting at a team-leading 14.67 in our home run model with Tucker at an 8.94. Altuve and Bregman are not far behind that pair either, with the second baseman at 9.87 and Bregman carrying an 8.81. The Astros have power up and down the lineup but there are consistency issues around Jose Abreu’s output at the slate this season. Abreu was dead at the plate from August of last year until around the beginning of July this season, he has shown some life over the last six-to-eight weeks and is up to 10 home runs and 77 WRC+ and he has driven in 56 runs on the season, but he is an unreliable option. Abreu is at least cheap for $3,400/$2,600 at first base, which keeps him in play. Chas McCormick has 15 home runs and 12 stolen bases with a 146 WRC+ over 286 plate appearances this year, he still costs only $4,300/$3,500. Jon Singleton is back in Houston after a long strange trip through baseball. Singleton has zero home runs and a -8 WRC+ in his 32 plate appearances this year. Singleton was a big power prospect coming up with Houston in the early 20teens, he had 13 home runs in 362 plate appearances with the big club in 2014 then hit 22 in 448 opportunities in AAA in 2015, 20 in 2016, 18 in AA in 2017, and then he was released, suspended for 100 games for substance abuse, played professionally in Mexico for several seasons from 2019 through the pandemic years, then resurfaced last season in Milwaukee’s system where he hit 24 home runs in 584 AAA plate appearances last year. Singleton had 10 homers on the board in 216 AAA plate appearances with Milwaukee and another 12 in 148 chances with Houston’s AAA squad, he still has clear power upside at the plate if nothing else and he costs $2,400/$2,000. Jeremy Pena and Martin Maldonado round out the projected lineup as mix-in options at shortstop and catcher.
The Orioles are a low-end option for stacking with Framber Valdez taking the hill for Houston. The elite lefty has been mostly terrific all season, over 21 starts and 135 innings he has a 3.07 ERA and 3.13 xFIP with a 26% strikeout rate. Valdez no-hit the Guardians his last time out, striking out seven and walking one in a fantastic performance. While he is unlikely to repeat that feat tonight, there is a significant projection on board and a clear ceiling score potential for Valdez. The lefty has a 2.03% home run rate this year, he was at 1.33% last season and 2.10% the year before, he is fantastic at checking power and keeping the ball in the yard, taking away one of the things the Orioles do well. Baltimore’s lineup opens with excellent catcher Adley Rutschman who has a 15.1% strikeout rate and 13.6% walk rate on the season while creating runs 21% better than average for a fair price as one of the top options at his position in all of baseball. Ryan Mountcastle has a 14.2% barrel rate with a 48.1% hard-hit rate and 13 home runs with a .197 ISO in 332 plate appearances, he is a major source of right-handed power in this lineup but he has just a 4.14 in our home run model against Valdez. Anthony Santander has 20 homers on the season with a .222 ISO and 121 WRC+ but he is at just 4.31 in the home run model. Everyone else in the lineup lands below those two marks for home run potential with Valdez on the mound, this is not a great spot to expect home run scoring or sequencing from the Orioles. Austin Hays is slashing .287/.329/.443 with a 111 WRC+ over 395 effective plate appearances. Gunnar Henderson has been getting more same-handed opportunities and delivering, but this is a bad matchup for the rookie infielder. Henderson has power potential with 19 home runs and a .234 ISO on the year and he fits in at third base or shortstop for $5,000/$3,200. Jordan Westburg has managed a 44.4% hard-hit rate despite just 2.8% barrels over his 103 plate appearances, he has two home runs, two stolen bases, and a 113 WRC+ in the sample. Ramon Urias has low-owned power upside in a bad spot, James McCann has a track record of quality against lefties but Valdez is a man apart from the average lefty starter, and Ryan McKenna is a platoon-focused mix-in.
Play: Framber Valdez, Astros bats/stacks, a couple of Grayson Rodriguez value darts
Update Notes:
Atlanta Braves (-152/5.58) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+140/4.54)
Righty Mitch Keller gave up eight earned runs for the second time in his last four starts the last time he took the mound. The righty allowed six in another start in that sample and has been struggling badly with his form through the Summer. Keller had a dynamite Spring but he is far removed from the pitcher who starred in April and May at this point. Overall, the unreliable righty has a 25.4% strikeout rate with a 4.35 ERA and 3.78 xFIP and he has allowed a 9.2% barrel rate with a 3.05% home run mark. Oddly, Keller has yielded only 33.6% hard hits and 87.1 mph of exit velocity overall, but he seems more like a target for the ludicrous Braves lineup than he does like a solid option for $8,900/$8,800. There is a bit of potential at those prices, Keller does have a projection in the upper-middle section of the pitching slate, but even this shallow slate has better options to offer than the shaky version of Keller against the Braves. The starter could certainly succeed tonight, but the path to that victory is exceedingly thin and he does not provide a major source of salary relief on either site. The everyday version of the Braves lineup should be intact tonight, while they are not showing the extreme home run potential that they flashed for yesterday’s slate, they rank second by fantasy point projections on our stacks board overall and have the highest implied team total on the slate at 5.58. Ronald Acuna Jr. has an 8.46 in our home run model, he has 25 long balls and 53 stolen bases while creating runs 68% better than average as the best day-to-day asset in fantasy baseball this season. Ozzie Albies has 26 homers and eight stolen bases and shows no signs of slowing down his terrific positional output at second base. Albies began the season undervalued but he has soared to prices that are appropriate for his star-caliber production, he is a strong option in Atlanta stacks and an easy one-off if needed. Austin Riley costs $5,700/$3,800, the DraftKings slate has priced Albies, Riley, and Matt Olson below $6,000 for a bit of salary relief after the entire top end of the Braves lineup was cracking the $6,000 range on recent slates. Riley and Olson have massive power potential in any matchup, the third baseman has 26 home runs and a .228 ISO on 13% barrels and 48.8% hard hits while Olson leads the team with 39 home runs and is close on the heels of Shohei Ohtani for the overall MLB lead. Sean Murphy has 18 home runs and a .254 ISO with a 142 WRC+ as the team’s regular catcher, if Travis d’Arnaud happens to don the tools of ignorance for Atlanta tonight he is only a minor downgrade who still possesses significant power for the position at a lower cost. Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario are strong veterans at cheap prices in the sixth and seventh spots in the lineup, they have combined for 39 home runs and they are both carrying ISOs well over .200. Orlando Arcia and Michael Harris II both have 11 home runs, Arcia has a 117 WRC+ and Harris is at 111, they are stellar options from the bottom of a projected lineup that, as usual, is playable from 1-9.
The upstart Pirates destroyed the best pitcher in baseball last night. Spencer Strider had a day to forget against the young squad and now they draw their sites on righty Yonny Chirinos, who has a 4.42 ERA and a 5.15 xFIP in 71.1 innings and six starts this season. Chirinos has struck out a very limited 13% of opposing hitters with just a 7.6% swinging-strike rate and a 22.3% CSW%, he has not been at all good on the mound. The righty has allowed a 3.33% home run rate on 90.9 mph of exit velocity and 8.5% barrels. Chirinos does not look like a sharp option even at $6,500/$5,800, he projects near the bottom of the board. The Pirates rank 17th by collective fantasy point projections but they land as the fifth-ranked points-per-dollar play on the DraftKings slate which puts them on the board. Josh Palacios is in the leadoff role in the projected lineup, he has a 72 WRC+ with three homers and two stolen bases in his 137 plate appearances and has not done a lot at the plate in his career so far. Bryan Reynolds is the team’s star, he has 14 home runs and nine stolen bases and has created runs just 10% better than average in a disappointing season, but he costs just $4,300/$3,200 in the outfield. Jack Suwinski has real power at the plate, he has 21 home runs with a .257 ISO on 18.4% barrels and a 48.6% hard-hit rate, against a low-strikeout pitcher Suwinski will have an ideal opportunity to blast one into the seats tonight, he leads the Pirates with a 7.67 in our home run model. Henry Davis is a good rookie in the outfield, he has a $2,700/$2,800 price tag and catcher eligibility on the FanDuel slate. Davis has five home runs and three stolen bases with an 84 WRC+ in his 170 plate appearances in the Show to this point, we are enthusiastic about his 44.2% hard-hit rate this year despite the below-average run creation mark. Alfonso Rivas has a home run in 35 plate appearances and has created runs 28% better than average in the small sample this year, he is a cheap play at first base. Ke’Bryan Hayes is a playable part for a cheap price at third base, but Endy Rodriguez and Liover Peguero are probably more interesting options at this point. Rodriguez is a stout option behind the plate, the rookie catcher has a 14.3% barrel rate and 51.4% hard-hit rate over his limited sample of 60 plate appearances so far and he has blasted a pair of home runs while creating runs five percent ahead of the curve in the tiny sample since his promotion. Rodriguez is a highly-regarded prospect who is expected to hit, and Peguero has been raking since his promotion. In 45 plate appearances, the shortstop has three home runs with a .256 ISO and he slots in at second base or shortstop for just $2,600/$2,500. Alika Williams is another young mix-in option, while he is not as highly thought of as his fellow rookies on the club he has had several noteworthy stops on his ascent through he minors and is off to a productive start with a 106 WRC+ over his first 32 chances in the Show. Williams is a minimum-priced shortstop on DraftKings and he costs just $2,100 on FanDuel.
Play: Braves bats/stacks, Pirates value shares
Update Notes:
Kansas City Royals (+167/4.08) @ Boston Red Sox (-183/5.53)
The Royals are not the prime story in this matchup, Boston’s upgraded offense is the interesting part of this game, but a cursory look at the Royals against Kutter Crawford at least is required. Crawford has a 3.62 ERA and a 4.14 xFIP over 82 innings in 13 starts, his 24.6% strikeout rate is good, as are his 5.8% walk rate and 1.09 WHIP. The righty has induced a 12.4% swinging-strike rate on the season but he has just a 26.1% CSW%. Crawford has allowed a bit of premium contact with 8.8% barrels but it has only amounted to 35.7% hard hits and 3.65% home runs on the season. The Royals come in with just a 4.08-run implied total with Vegas liking the opportunity for Crawford, but the starter ranks only in the middle of the board with a bit of a lack of depth overall in his good starts. Crawford is a value option at $7,600/$7,900 but he has a lower than average ceiling even against the lousy Royals lineup. Kansas City is not a priority stack in this matchup, there is a bit of home run potential around their stars, namely Bobby Witt Jr. who can also produce via stealing bases and driving the ball with regularity, and Sal Perez, who has been more of a sell-out for power option this season. Witt has 20 home runs and 32 steals with a 110 WRC+, and Perez is at 17 home runs and a 90 WRC+ in a down year overall at the plate. They are expected to hit second and fourth in the lineup and they are extremely high-priority options when stacking this team. Maikel Garcia has a .279/.322/.382 triple-slash with 17 stolen bases but a 90 WRC+ from the leadoff spot, Michael Massey is hitting third in the projected lineup with a .219/.275/.359 triple-slash and 70 WRC+ in his 295 opportunities from the left side. Massey is a cheap second baseman and he does sport an 8.9% barrel rate with a 41.9% hard-hit rate and nine home runs, but he is not a major focus overall. MJ Melendez should hit for more power but his output is highly unpredictable and irregular at the plate. Edward Olivares has a bit of mid-range power and speed, he has six home runs and eight stolen bases in 290 opportunities this year but is at just 89 WRC+ as a cheap outfielder. Matt Beaty is a cheap lefty bat in the outfield or at first base for $2,100 on DraftKings, he is an outfielder only on the FanDuel slate for the minimum. Beaty has a 66 WRC+ over his 23 opportunities this year and was at -1 in 47 chances in a cup of coffee last season. Beaty is not a young prospect, he has 626 plate appearances in his career at age 30, there is not much to see here. Drew Waters and Kyle Isbel close out the projected lineup with WRC+ marks of 84 and 65 in 201 and 202 plate appearances respectively.
Righty Brady Singer has talent on the mound, he took an encouraging step forward with a strong season over 24 starts in 2022, posting a 24.2% strikeout rate and a 3.23 ERA with a 3.30 xFIP and he looked primed to take the next step for Kansas City this year. And then the floor fell out from under him for most of the season. Singer has a 5.10 ERA but a 4.20 xFIP on the season, he has allowed a 50.5% hard-hit rate on 7.9% barrels with 91.7 mph of exit velocity but he has kept launch angle to just 9.4 degrees and home runs to merely 2.27%. The righty has coughed up a 1.39 WHIP despite a reasonable 7.2% walk rate, though that mark is up two points year over year while his strikeout rate has collapsed by five points to just 19.7% in 22 starts this year. Singer has a 9.4% swinging-strike rate and 28.5% CSW% which is down almost two points despite essentially the same mediocre swinging-strike rate. He has been better of late, in Singer’s most recent start he worked eight innings of three-hit shutout ball while striking out four of 26 Mets hitters, and he has not given up a homer in three straight starts. The two starts prior to the outing against the Mets were strong strikeout performances, one of which was a quality start in which Singer worked six innings, allowed two runs, nd struck out nine Yankees. In the other start he also allowed two earned runs and he struck out 10 of 24 Twins hitters in just five innings. Prior to the recent stretch of quality, Singer was having a very lousy season, he is difficult to trust in a bad matchup against the Red Sox at Fenway Park, and he is pushing strong numbers in Boston’s direction both in our models and in Vegas. Boston has a 5.53-run implied total that ranks second overall on the Vegas board, they are the seventh-ranked team by average fantasy point projections on our board though they rank just 15th for home run potential. The Red Sox have a significant ceiling for urn creation but Singer is demonstrably good over time at limiting launch angles and home runs. He is not unhittable by any means, there is still power on the board for Boston in what looks like a great spot, but there is a minor chance it could be a bit of a trap spot that results in just a total of four to six runs in a game that is good but not overly valuable for MLB DFS purposes. The more likely outcome is that Boston mashes against Singer, the starter is a long dart throw at $7,400 as a value option on DraftKings, he is difficult to recommend at $9,000 on the FanDuel slate and he projects near the bottom of the pitching slate. Boston’s lineup gets a significant upgrade with the return of a nearly forgotten former star in the infield. Before that hitter, we will probably see the leadoff spot go to Jarren Duran, who has been excellent through 329 plate appearances this year. The lefty is cheap for his talent at $4,500/$3,200 atop this lineup, he has a 130 WRC+ with a 47.5% hard-hit rate, a terrific triple-slash, eight home runs, and 23 stolen bases this year. Masataka Yoshida has become a star during his first year in Boston, he is slashing .306/.364/.481 with a 128 WRC+ and 12 home runs. Yoshida strikes out at just an 11.8% clip, he puts the ball in play constantly and delivers excellent numbers ahead of Justin Turner and Rafael Devers. Turner has a .284/.353/.474 triple-slash with 17 home runs and has created runs 22% better than average, and Devers has still hit for excellent power with 26 home runs and a .254 ISO while creating runs 26% better than average. Devers is discounted at $5,200/$3,500 at third base. The buried lede here is the return of Trevor Story, who has not made a plate appearance for Boston this season while dealing with injuries. Story had a lousy year for the Red Sox last season at just .238/.303/.434 but he did hit 16 home runs and steal 13 bases while creating runs exactly at league average in his mid-sized sample of 396 plate appearances. The infielder was far better while with Colorado, of course, he hit 24 home runs and stole 20 bases but was actually below average at 98 WRC+ over 585 plate appearances in 2021, he had a strong year in the short 2020 season with 11 home runs and 15 steals in 59 games. 2018 and 2019 were Story’s strongest seasons, at age 25 he hit 37 home runs and stole 27 bases while slashing .291/.348/.567 and the following year he hit 35 homers and stole 23 bags. His 2020 output was clearly on that same pace, outside of last season’s blip Story has been an absolute star throughout his career, at just 30 it will be interesting to see what he has to offer the Red Sox down the stretch. Story returns to a full-priced $5,200/$3,300 with eligibility at only second base on DraftKings but adding shortstop on FanDuel. Triston Casas has been elite over the past month or more. On July 7th, we mentioned expectations for a major second half from Casas, over the month since that day’s article was posted the first baseman has a .343/.435/.753 triple-slash (1.189 OPS) with eight home runs in 85 plate appearances. Casas has 17 home runs and a .226 ISO with a 122 WRC+ overall this season, he gets on at a .351 clip partly on the back of a team-leading 13.9% walk rate. Casas is dramatically underpriced at just $3,800/$2,800 at first base. Outfielder Alex Verdugo is slashing .274/.346/.426 with eight home runs and a 109 WRC+ as a capable hitter late in the lineup for cheap prices but his overall output on the season has been a bit of a letdown. Luis Urias has cheap power in the infield on a team loaded with good infield options. He fits in at second or third base on DraftKings and adds shortstop to that mix on the FanDuel slate for $2,700/$2,200. Urias hit 16 home runs in 472 chances last year and 23 in 570 the season before, his power upside is very realistic but he is a limited hitter overall. Reese McGuire checks at catcher to round out the lineup.
Play: Red Sox bats/stacks, a few low-expectation Kutter Crawford value darts
Update Notes:
Toronto Blue Jays (-129/4.28) @ Cleveland Guardians (+119/3.81)
Cleveland righty Tanner Bibee will look to replicate the fantastic start that fellow right-handed premium rookie Gavin Williams posted in this matchup last night. Williams is the somewhat more highly regarded prospect between the two, but Bibee has high expectations on the mound and has been delivering over 94.2 innings and 17 outings this season. The rookie has a 23.9% strikeout rate with a sparkling 3.14 ERA and a more honest 4.38 xFIP, and he has been very good at keeping power in check with just a 6.1% barrel rate and 2.52% home run rate allowed on the year. Bibee has walked a few too many at 8.8% but he has a solid ability to punch his way out of trouble and he is inducing an 11.2% swinging-strike rate. For $9,500/$9,700, Bibee has value on this slate, he projects in the top five on the pitching board and represents a big of a cut line between tiers. The matchup against Toronto is not an easy one, but the team has largely been underperforming on the season. Whit Merrifield is slotted into the leadoff spot once again, he is a strong option for MLB DFS purposes when stacking Blue Jays. Merrifield is inexpensive with second base and outfield eligibility on both sites and he has created runs 12% better than average while getting on base at a .342 clip, hitting 10 home runs, and stealing 21 bases. Brandon Belt is cheap at $3,100/$2,900 at first base, he has a 12.3% barrel rate and 40.9% hard-hit rate with 10 homers in 311 plate appearances from the left side. Belt strikes out a ton, his 34.7% strikeout rate is one of the highest among regular players on the slate, but he offsets that with a 15.4% walk rate and a .370 on-base percentage as a pure three true-outcomes player. Belt has created runs 30% better than average this season, he is an excellent value buy in this lineup. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 18 home runs with a 116 WRC+ in 481 plate appearances and is discounted at $5,100/$3,200 at first base. George Springer is also cheap for his talent at $5,000/$2,900, the outfielder has 13 home runs and 14 stolen bases but just a 99 WRC+ this season. Alejandro Kirk and Matt Chapman have stout right-handed bats in the heart of the projected lineup. Kirk has six home runs with a 100 WRC+ this season while Chapman has a 124 WRC+ and 15 home runs on 17.7% barrels and a 58.1% hard-hit rate. Daulton Varsho has 13 home runs and 12 stolen bases from the left side for cheap prices in the outfield, Davis Schneider remains cheap at second base with clear upside, and Paul DeJong is a sneaky option for shortstop power at the end of the deep Toronto lineup.
Cleveland is facing Yusei Kikuchi who has a better ceiling for strikeouts than last night’s lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu. Kikuchi has a 24.6% strikeout rate this year and he was at 27.3% in 100.2 innings last season and 24.5% in 157 innings the season before. The southpaw has a major issue with home run power but if he is utilized on the right night he is capable of posting ceiling scores for fair prices across the DFS industry. Kikuchi has allowed a 4.55% home run rate on 9.5% barrels and 43.1% hard hits this year, last season was at 5.07% home runs on even more premium contact with a problematic 14.8% barrel rate, and the year before was more like this season with 4.05% home runs and 11% barrels. Kikuchi is unreliable and the Guardians are good at checking power, but they have been very bad for power and run creation against lefties this season, which pushes some upside toward the pitcher. Cleveland has a bottom-of-the-board collective fantasy point projection average and they do not rank well for home run potential despite Kikuchi’s problems, only Jose Ramirez lands over the “magic number” at 10.25 in our home run model. Steven Kwan has a 101 WRC+ in the leadoff spot but he is back down to just a .343 on-base clip. That rate of reaching first base would be great if Kwan offered any power or anything else at the plate, as a hitter who relies on getting to first, stealing bases, and correlating with teammates, Kwan only hits value with a .370 on-base percentage or better. Andres Gimenez has a limited 5.1% barrel rate and 26.5% hard-hit rate but he has managed 10 home runs in 434 plate appearances and he has stolen 18 bases. Gimenez is still cheap despite a promotion in the lineup, he still sits eight percent below average for run creation but he is one of the better options when stacking Guardians. Ramirez hits third, he is due to serve a suspension for his fight with Tim Anderson but he is likely to play tonight while he appeals the length. Ramirez has a team-leading 129 WRC+ and is one of only two players (Kwan) above the waterline for run creation overall in this lineup. Oscar Gonzalez has a touch of right-handed power but lacks consistency and significant experience in the Show, Gabriel Arias has light-tower power but problems actually connecting with pitchers, he is a major source of strikeout upside for Kikuchi at 32.5% on the year, and Ramon Laureano is a moderate power and speed option from the right side for cheap pricing late in the lineup. Brayan Rocchio has potential at the plate but just 33 plate appearances under his belt, Myles Straw is a defense and speed option, and Cam Gallagher is a limited catcher who would be better for MLB DFS if he were Bo Naylor in that spot.
Play: Yusei Kikuchi, Tanner Bibee, Blue Jays bats/stacks as a mid-level option
Update Notes:
Chicago Cubs (-131/5.10) @ New York Mets (+121/4.50)
The Mets delivered on our power projections in their matchup with lefty Drew Smyly yesterday and they are pulling in solid marks once again with righty Jameson Taillon on the mound for Chicago, but the Cubs are the favored side of this one at -131 with a 5.10-run implied total. Chicago is taking on Carlos Carrasco who has been simply bad this season. The veteran righty has given up 21 earned runs over his last four starts. He had an excellent outing at the beginning of July, posting an eight-inning three-hit shutout against the Diamondbacks at Arizona, so technically the 21 runs come over his last five starts, but he has clearly not been a good option for long swaths of the season. Carrasco has a 6.60 ERA and 5.13 xFIP with a limited 14.9% strikeout rate while allowing 11.2% barrels, a 47.3% hard-hit rate, and a 4.30% home run rate this year. The Cubs look like a very good option for upside with both power and sequencing approaches to run creation. Chicago ranks ninth by collective fantasy point projections on a tightly-packed middle of the board, they rate less than a half-point behind the third-ranked Padres and they are showing clear value scores on both sites. Mike Tauchman has finally found a regular MLB home atop the Cubs lineup at age 32. Tauchman has a 133 WRC+ while slashing .296/.366/.493 with a 19.3% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate in 161 plate appearances in the leadoff role this season. He has six home runs and five stolen bases and is a good option for correlated scoring. Nico Hoerner is down to $4,500/$3,500 with his DraftKings pricing getting a bit more manageable after we have expressed concerns about the elevated number and lack of overall production. Hoerner is an OK option not a great one, he has a 99 WRC+ overall this season with 27 stolen bases and eight odd home runs despite just a 2.1% barrel rate and 33.2% hard hits. Hoerner was better last season with a 106 WRC+, 10 homers, and 20 steals, he has potential and is a correlated scoring option at worst. Ian Happ has 13 home runs, nine stolen bases, a 119 WRC+, and a .374 on-base percentage, he is excellent for connection to players after him in the lineup and he has individual ability at the dish as well for just $3,400/$3,300 in the outfield. Cody Bellinger has returned to star form in 2023, he leads the team at 49% better than average for run creation, he has 16 home runs and 17 stolen bases, and has only struck out at a 15% clip. Dansby Swanson’s power has come around, the shortstop is sitting on 17 home runs and has a chance to reach his typical output of around 25 long balls. Swanson is still affordable at $4,400/$3,200 at a premium position. Jeimer Candelario has a 6.62 in our home run model, he trails Christopher Morel who leads the team at 9.97 with Bellinger at an 8.89. Candelario has eligibility at first and third base on DraftKings for $4,000 and he is a good third base option for $3,300 on the blue site. Morel plays three positions for $3,600 on FanDuel and slots in at third base or in the outfield for $4,800 on DraftKings. Nick Madrigal and Tucker Barnhart round out the projected lineup.
New York is showing a bit of power potential against Taillon and they have a healthy 4.50-run implied team total that lands in the middle of the pack on today’s slate. Taillon has allowed a 3.69% home run rate with a 5.36 ERA and 4.75 xFIP this season. The righty has been fairly low-end through most of the season, he has a 20.2% strikeout rate with a 10.3% barrel rate allowed and he is only inducing an 8.7% swinging-strike rate and posting a 24.6% CSW%. Taillon does not project well for $6,700/$8,600 on this slate. Brandon Nimmo has an 8.23 in the home run model ahead of Francisco Lindor who slots in above the “magic number” at 10.45. Nimmo is a terrific leadoff hitter with individual ability and solid correlated scoring skills, Lindor is a cheap star at shortstop for just $4,800/$3,700, he has 22 home runs and 18 stolen bases and looks mostly like Francisco Lindor in the stat line. Jeff McNeil has four home runs and five stolen bases with just a 92 WRC+ in a down season at the plate. Pete Alonso has 33 home runs with a .295 ISO and 129 WRC+ after another monster game last night. Alonso has a 15.41 in our home run model and is always a major threat in the heart of the Mets lineup, he costs just $5,400/$3,600 at first base. Daniel Vogelbach has been limited over 231 opportunities, he has seven home runs and a 96 WRC+, DJ Stewart has a bit of left-handed pop, he hit 12 home runs in 318 opportunities two years ago and he is very cheap at $2,400/$2,100 in the outfield, and Francisco Alvarez is a star power-hitter as a rookie catcher who costs merely $3,800/$2,800 and may hit higher in the lineup. Rafael Ortega and Jonathan Arauz are mix-in options late in the lineup.
Play: Cubs bats/stacks, Mets bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Colorado Rockies (+193/3.49) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-212/5.12)
The Rockies have been baseball’s worst overall team against left-handed pitching, as was featured in this space recently. Colorado’s active roster has a 30th-ranked 56 WRC+ against lefties as a unit, meaning they are 44% worse than average, on the average, at creating runs in the split. Their collective strikeout rate sits at a whopping 31.4% against southpaws, also a league-worst mark, and their .139 ISO in the split ranks 26th. This is an inept ballclub when they face a southpaw, which has them at a 3.49-run implied team total against the heavily-favored Brewers who have Wade Miley on the mound tonight. Miley is a pitcher who does not typically land on our radar for MLB DFS shares in the vast majority of his outings, the veteran has a 17.5% strikeout rate over 71.2 innings in 14 starts this season. Last year he had a 17.6% strikeout rate over 37 innings and eight starts and he sat at 18.1% in 163 innings and 28 starts the season before. The lefty is more of an innings-eater than anything else on the mound, he has an effective 3.01 ERA this season but a 4.68 xFIP and he has been fairly good at limiting power with just a 2.75% home run rate on 34.6% hard hits and an 8.3% barrel rate. Miley projects well in this matchup, he costs just $7,000/$8,300 and he is ranked sixth overall on the short pitching slate, behind Bibee but ahead of Seattle’s Logan Gilbert, who is in a much more difficult matchup. Miley is not a premium pitcher, this is a play that even the terrible Rockies could plow through, but Miley looks like an option that will be extremely low-owned by the public in probably his best opportunity for success of the season. Colorado bats are low-expectation options, Jurickson Profar and Ezequiel Tovar are bad in the first two spots in the lineup, they have WRC+ marks of 76 and 72 with only minor output for power or speed. Ryan McMahon dies on the vine against lefties, his power comes on the strong side of splits and he costs $4,200/$3,300 tonight. Brendan Rodgers has a bit of right-handed pop in the heart of the lineup, he is joined by Elias Diaz, Elehuris Montero, and Michael Toglia in the 5-7 spots. Diaz has been a good cheap catcher this season but he has an 87 WRC+ overall, while Montero and Toglia have right-handed power potential. Cole Tucker slots in for $2,000 on DraftKings but he is not available on FanDuel. Tucker hit two home runs and stole two bases in 131 plate appearances in 2021, he had a stolen base and a 4 WRC+ in 63 plate appearances last year. Brenton Doyle is a mix-in with seven homers and 15 steals on the season.
The Brewers are huge favorites with a strong 5.12-run implied total against lefty Kyle Freeland. The starter has a 4.86 ERA and 5.22 xFIP with a highly limited 14.6% strikeout rate and just 7.7% swinging-strikes with a 22.6% CSW% over 113 innings and 23 starts. Freeland has allowed a 9.1% barrel rate with 42.7% hard hits, 90.1 mph of exit velocity, and a 4.05% home run rate, he is a highly targetable pitcher who is not an option for MLB DFS. Christian Yelich has a 7.27 in our home run model, he is second to Willy Adames at 7.36 in this lineup. Yelich is a great option in Brewers stacks, the star outfielder has a 131 WRC+ in another strong season. William Contreras has good power and a strong bat overall hitting second as a highly valuable catcher. Carlos Santana has 14 home runs in 437 plate appearances with a .173 ISO and 92 WRC+ and is hitting in a valuable spot in the everyday lineup for just $3,700/$2,900. Adames got the night off last night, he remains cheap in the heart of the lineup as a flawed hitter with multi-homer potential on any given slate. Veteran Mark Canha is an inexpensive playable part with six home runs in 331 plate appearances, Tyrone Taylor was called out for sneaky power potential before a big day yesterday and he climbs the lineup today in the projected version, and Andruw Monstasterio has been better than league-average for run creation over 154 plate appearances. Brice Turang and Joey Wiemer round out the lineup, Turang has six home runs and 14 steals while Wiemer has 13 homers and 11 stolen bases.
Play: Brewers bats/stacks, Wade Miley value
Update Notes:
New York Yankees (-153/5.03) @ Chicago White Sox (+141/4.07)
The Yankees are carrying a 5.03-run implied total as heavy favorites against a low-end starter in Chicago tonight. Touki Toussaint has a 21.6% strikeout rate with a 3.92 ERA but a 4.80 xFIP in his 41.1 innings and six outings this season. The righty has yielded just a 5.6% barrel rate and 2.27% home run rate this year but he has a lot of noisy home run and premium contact output in his numbers from 2021 when he gave up a 5.09% home run rate in 50 innings over 10 starts. Toussaint does not project well in our model for $5,700/$6,500 but starters of all sorts have shut down this flawed Yankees squad all season. We do not recommend the starter on this slate but it would not be overly surprising to see him post a reasonably effective outing over five or six innings. Jake Bauers is our overall home run call for the day, the lefty has a 12.01 in our home run model ahead of the overall slate leader, Aaron Judge, who checks in at aa massive 23.52 in this matchup. Bauers has hit 11 home runs in just 202 plate appearances, he has a .263 ISO with a 20.9% barrel rate and 50.4% hard-hit rate in the mid-sized sample. Judge is a superstar for $6,500/$4,000, he has scuffled a bit in recent games while searching for his form after returning from injury, but he has major upside on any given slate and seems like a great bet for a home run. Gleyber Torres has 18 homers with a .178 ISO and 117 WRC+ as one of the best hitters on the team this season. Torres has a 13.5% strikeout rate with a 39.3% hard-hit rate, he does not drive the ball as regularly as one might expect but he has clear potential for $4,600/$3,000 at second base. Giancarlo Stanton has 17 homers in 258 plate appearances with a .254 ISO on 15.7% barrels and 48.8% hard hits for $4,700/$3,000, both Stanton and Torres are very underpriced on FanDuel, the Yankees stack is a clear path to points-per-dollar value on both sites. DJ LeMahieu has been better over the last six weeks but his overall numbers are still way down on the season. He has a 91 WRC+ in 387 plate appearances and costs just $3,100/$2,500 with triple-position eligibility on the blue site. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is not a strong option at the plate, we would prefer to see Billy McKinney in this spot again, McKinney has believable left-handed power while Kiner-Falfea is a limited hitter on the whole. Outfielder Harrison Bader and rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe are infrequent contributors who can be good for counting stats, and Kyle Higashioka has limited results for his stout 10.9% barrel rate and 46.9% hard-hit rate over 193 opportunities.
Chicago will be facing righty Clarke Schmidt who has been fairly effective in 109.2 innings and 22 starts. Schmidt has a 4.35 ERA and 4.37 xFIP on the season while allowing 3.38% home runs and 43.4% hard hits with an 8.4% barrel rate and 90.2 mph of exit velocity. The righty has a 21.8% strikeout rate with a 6.3% walk rate and 10% swinging-strikes, he is an OK option but ranks just in the lower-middle of the board for $7,100/$7,200 as a low-priority value dart. Chicago is projected to have Tim Anderson in the leadoff spot despite his looming suspension, which is under appeal as is the fashion. Anderson has a 59 WRC+ and might as well just start sitting out tonight as reports emerge that he has been “distanced from the team” all season, which would have been valuable information in April. Andrew Benintendi has a .276/.342/.357 triple-slash in a down year that has seen him land seven points below the average for run creation. Luis Robert Jr. has 30 home runs, 14 stolen bases, a .288 ISO, and a 136 WRC+, he is a star in the outfield at $5,700/$3,900. Eloy Jimenez has a 5.06 in our home run model with 13 in his ledger for the season, Yoan Moncada is cheap at third base for $3,100/$2,400 but he has not been reliably good for some time, while Andrew Vaughn is cheap for $3,500/$2,800 at first base despite 15 home runs, a 109 WRC+, a .187 ISO, and 47.5% hard hits. Yasmani Grandal, Oscar Colas, and Elvis Andrus round out the projected lineup, Colas is the most interesting given a bit of left-handed power potential for cheap pricing in the outfield. The White Sox rank at the bottom of the board, across the board, in our stacks tool today.
Play: Yankees bats/stacks, a few shares of Clarke Schmidt value darts
Update Notes:
San Francisco Giants (-100/4.51) @ Los Angeles Angels (-108/4.59)
The Giants and Angels land at mid-level run totals on both sides in what Vegas has as essentially a pick’em spot between Lucas Giolito and Alex Wood who is slated to follow opener Scott Alexander. Wood is a $5,400/6,300 option who has a 4.83 ERA and 5.30 xFIP with an 18.8% strikeout rate and unreliable expectation of innings, he is not a great play on this slate. Giolito, on the other hand, slots in with a strong projection for $9,900/$8,100, his FanDuel price is particularly appealing. The righty was traded to the Angels ahead of the deadline to rescue their season, the team has been losing game after game since the deadline and they have fallen to a low single-digit probability of making the playoffs. Giolito has a 25% strikeout rate over 23 starts and he carries a 4.36 ERA and 4.43 xFIP into play tonight. The righty has an 11.7% swinging-strike rate with a 28.3% CSW% but he has had issues with power and premium contact this year at 11.1% barrels, a 41.6% hard-hit rate, and 4.53% home runs. The starter has reasonable upside against the Giants’ projected lineup and he is at very good prices on both sites, but a few hedge stacks of San Francisco power bats may be in order in a both-sided situation.
LaMonte Wade Jr. leads off with a .398 on-base percentage and a 132 WRC+ for $4,100/$2,800 as a cheap left-handed first baseman. Wade has 11 home runs and a .159 ISO with 10.5% barrels and 41.4% hard-hits, he is cheap for his talent atop the lineup. Thairo Estrada is pricey at $5,000/$3,400 but he is a high-quality infielder with nine home runs and 18 stolen bases in 329 plate appearances. Estrada has a .274/.328/.432 triple-slash with a .158 ISO and 108 WRC+ and he fits in at second base on DraftKings while adding shortstop to the mix on FanDuel. Wilmer Flores has been mashing of late, he is up to a 142 WRC+ over 285 plate appearances for the season and he has 14 home runs with a .233 ISO for just $3,600/$2,800. Flores is a first baseman and a decision point with Wade on DraftKings, he is a prime asset in the Giants lineup on FanDuel where he fills three positions at a very cheap salary. Joc Pederson has titanic left-handed power, he has a 13.1% barrel rate and 52.6% hard hits with 11 home runs in 277 plate appearances this year. JD Davis has been good against fellow righties all season, he has 15 home runs in 404 plate appearances overall and he remains cheap at $4,600/$2,700. Michael Conforto is another major source of lefty power, he has 13 homers in 378 plate appearances, Patrick Bailey is better defensively than he is at the dish despite his hot start. Bailey has five home runs on the board and a 96 WRC+ in 227 plate appearances. Brandon Crawford and Luis Matos round out the lineup at inexpensive prices as mix-in values. Luis Rengifo leads off for the hard-hitting Angels, who rank sixth on our board for fantasy point projections and fifth for FanDuel points-per-dollar value while ranking 11th for DraftKings value. Rengifo has sneaky power potential but is miscast in the leadoff role, he does pick up correlated scoring potential with Shohei Ohtani who has 40 home runs and 15 stolen bases and is the fastest player to those totals since Ken Griffey Jr. Brandon Drury has 14 home runs and light-tower power for just $5,100/$2,900, he is underpriced by a wide margin on the FanDuel slate where he fills first or second base. CJ Cron has 11 home runs and a .190 ISO this season for cheap pricing, Randal Grichuk has hit 10 home runs and has a .196 ISO on 44% hard hits with a sturdy triple-slash, and Hunter Renfroe is another huge source of righty power late in the lineup. Renfroe is a solid any given slate option despite being stuck at 17 home runs for some time now. Eduardo Escobar, Chad Wallach, and Jordyn Adams round out th projected lineup, Escobar and Wallach can hit one out against anyone, they have five nad seven home runs in limited opportunities this season and the rookie is at the dead minimum price on both sites.
Play: Angels bats/stacks, Lucas Giolito value, Giants value
Update Notes:
San Diego Padres (+104/4.20) @ Seattle Mariners (-113/4.39)
Mariners righty Logan Gilbert is a very good young pitcher who projects in the upper-middle of the board against the Padres top-heavy lineup. Gilbert has San Diego somewhat checked with just a 4.20-run imlied total, he has a sharp 3.86 ERA and 3.79 xFIP on the season while striking out 23.9% and walking just 4.5%. The righty has an 11.5% swinging-strike rate but just a 26.8% CSW% and he has allowed a bit of power and premium contact with an 8.8% barrel rate and 43.1% hard hits amounting to 90.5 mph of exit velocity on average and a 3.22% home run rate. Gilbert is a good-not-great option in this matchup for $8,700/$9,500, he has a clear path to success on the right night but he is not an apex option for strikeouts and he is in a tougher than it may seem matchup given the star power in the Padres projected batting order. Ha-Seong Kim has been elite in the leadoff spot in a career season. Kim has 15 home runs and 24 stolen bases with a run creation mark 35% better than average in a terrific spot for correlated scoring. Fernando Tatis Jr. hsa apparently never seen the movie Anchorman but he is a terrific ballplayer who has a 117 WRC+ with 19 home runs and 17 stolen bases. Juan Soto is a superstar hitter with a .247 ISO, a 158 WRC+, 24 home runs, and a 20% walk rate. Soto leads the Padres with a 13.5% barrel rate and 57.9% hard hits, he is excellent in the outfield for $6,200/$4,000. Manny Machado has 21 home runs with a .203 ISO and he is still a bit underpriced at third base for $5,600/$3,300. Xander Bogaerts is at a 105 WRC+ over 459 up and down plate appearances, he is slashing .265/.340/.390 with a limited .125 ISO, 11 home runs, and 12 stolen bases. Jake Cronenworth has a 93 WRC+, Ji-Man Choi has a 7.00 in our home run model as a cheap source of left-handed power late in the lineup, and Gary Sanchez has blasted 15 home runs in just 202 plate appearances with a .289 ISO and a 14.8% barrel rate. Trent Grisham rounds out the lineup with a 102 WRC+ as a playable part for low costs and low popularity in the outfield.
The Padres have righty Nick Martinez on the mound, he has been working in relief since early in the season and should not be expected to pitch more than three innings in this game. Martinez has a 22.1% strikeout rate with a 3.68 ERA and 3.91 xFIP while allowing 2.99% home runs in a string of effective performances but he is not likely to provide enough to pay off $7,200/$5,600. The Mariners are a high strikeout bunch that could push upside toward Martinez in the short start, but they have power at the plate and could easily ruin his day in a hurry as well. Seattle’s lineup ranks just 16th on the board for fantasy point projections and they do not look like a strong points-per-dollar play either, they are simply a low-priority mix-in stack with some talent on this slate. JP Crawford is a strong option at shortstop, he has a 129 WRC+ with a .379 on-base percentage on the season and provides good correlation with star outfielder Julio Rodriguez who has 18 home runs and 27 stolen bases. Rodriguez, like many of the Mariners hitters, has had a down season while still posting interesting-enough numbers for MLB DFS purposes, he has created runs 12% better than average and has a 50.9% hard-hit rate this year but he is pricey at $5,900/$3,800. Eugenio Suarez has hit 16 home runs and he has a 104 WRC+ on the season. Cal Raleigh has 18 homers with a .216 ISO as a hard-hitting catcher option from both sides of the plate, Ty France is having a disappointing season at just 101 WRC+ with a .251/.325/.372 triple-slash and .121 ISO but he costs just $3,100/$2,700 to help offset the cost of Rodriguez. Dominic Canzone came over at the deadline, he has one home run in his 57 MLB plate appearances and is playable in the outfield in Seattle stacks. Cade Marlowe is also a playable rookie with upside for a bit of power and speed, he has two home runs and two stolen bases with a 162 WRC+ over 42 plate appearances in the Show. Teoscar Hernandez has major power with 17 home runs but he strikes out too much and has had a downturn overall with just a .292 on-base percentage and 97 WRC+. Josh Rojas rounds out the lineup as a mix-in part.
Play: Logan Gilbert as a mid-level option, Padres bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Texas Rangers (-248/4.67) @ Oakland Athletics (+223/2.93)
The Rangers are another massive favorite on this slate but they are carrying just a 4.67-run implied total against lefty JP Sears, who has been fairly effective as one of the few bright spots for Oakland in 2023. Sears has a 22.2% strikeout rate with a 4.07 ERA but a 5.10 xFIP in 22 starts and 121.2 innings. He has induced an 11.4% swinging-strike rate but has just a 25.6% CSW% but just a 5.6% walk rate. The lefty has allowed too much power, his home run rate stands at 4.99% on 12.6% barrels but just 37.4% hard hits and an 88.6 mph exit velocity average. Sears is a mixed-bag of quality on the mound in a terrible matchup against a high-quality offense, for $7,300/$7,400 we can probably do better but he projects in the middle of the board overall. Texas bats and their starting pitcher are the highlights of this game. The Rangers lineup is elite when Corey Seager is healthy and hitting in his usual second spot in the lineup behind double-play partner Marcus Semien. The shortstop has 18 home runs and a .296 ISO with a 186 WRC+ in his 320 plate appearances. Over 526 opportunities, Semien has produced a 125 WRC+ with 18 home runs and 10 steals in the leadoff role. Nathaniel Lowe is cheap and productive at first base, Adolis Garcia is a toolsy star in the outfield with 29 home runs and seven stolen bases, and Mitch Garver has major potential as a power hitting catcher who climbs the lineup in the absence of star third baseman Josh Jung. Garver has seven home runs in just 159 plate appearances this year and he costs just $3,400/$2,900 at catcher. Ezequiel Duran has been excellent all year, he costs $3,200/$2,800 with multi-position eligibility, power, and speed on both sites. Jonathan Orneals is a sneaky option for just $2,000/$2,200 late in the lineup, and Leody Taveras has been good in the ninth spot all year with a 105 WRC+, 11 home runs, and 11 stolen bases from the bottom of the batting order.
The Athletics are facing Max Scherzer, even this version of the formerly elite starter should have little issue with the pushover Oakland squad. Vegas has the Athletics relegated to just a 2.93-run implied total against the starter who scuffled his way to a 4.04 ERA and 4.01 xFIP with a 27.7% strikeout rate and got traded out of New York with a ton of cash in his pocket. Scherzer has a 6.8% walk rate and 1.21 WHIp on the season, his 13.2% swinging-strike rate down by 1.5 points from last year and he has a 28.2% CSW% on the season while allowing far too much premium contact. The righty has yielded a 4.89% home run rate on 9.5% barrels and a 37.4% hard-hit rate, he has not been nearly himself for most of the season but he has a massive ceiling on this slate for $10,800/$10,500 and he projects at the top of the board in what should be a very popular spot for the money. Scherzer can be undercut if his public ownership gets out of hand, there are good value options and at least one other premium starter in Framber Valdez in play and the starter has had some questionable nights this season, but the matchup against Oakland could not get much better for the pitcher. Esteury Ruiz has 44 stolen bases with a .308 on-base percentage in the projected leadoff role, JJ Bleday has low-end lefty power and a very weak triple-slash with a 94 WRC+ over 265 plate appearances, and Zack Gelof is a high-end rookie who has blasted five home runs and stolen six bases in his first 84 plate appearances in the Show. Seth Brown has realistic left-handed power and a 6.66 in our home run model. Tyler Soderstrom is a good young left-handed catcher for $2,900/$2,100 with one home run in his 59 plate appearances. Jordan Diaz costs $2,800/$2,400 with a 106 WRC+ in 161 plate appearances, Shea Langeliers has 11 home runs but a .201/.266/.364 triple-slash in 355 plate appearances and Tony Kemp has a 79 WRC+ in 325 plate appearances. Nick Allen is a defense-first player and the weakest hitter in the weakest lineup.
Play: Max Scherzer, Rangers bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-152/5.30) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+140/4.31)
The final game of the day sees targetable Brandon Pfaadt taking the mound to face the Dodgers who must be salivating at the opportunity to tattoo their names on the rookie’s ugly season totals. Pfaadt came into the season with heavy expectations and fell on his face. The righty has a 7.11 ERA and 4.91 xFIP with just a 19% strikeout rate over 44.1 innings and nine starts and he has allowed an absurd 7.18% home run rate on 11.8% barrels and a 45.1% hard-hit rate with 90.8 mph of exit velocity. Pfaadt has the Dodgers at a 5.30-run implied team total that honestly feels a bit low. Los Angeles leads the slate for fantasy points and they sit second overall for home run potential with all of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and JD Martinez above the “magic number” for home run upside. Betts has 31 home runs with a .298 ISO and 158 WRC+ in 492 plate appearances, Freeman has 23 homers and 16 steals with an MVP-caliber 171 WRC+, and catcher Will Smith is a premium option at his position who is always putting the ball in play with authority when he isn’t hitting one of his 14 home runs. Muncy has 27 long balls from the left side of the plate with a .286 ISO, and Martinez adds 25 homers from the right side with a .298 ISO to tie Betts for the lead on the hard-hitting squad. David Peralta, Jason Heyward, and James Outman are a trio of affordable hard-hitting left-handed outfielders in prime position to succeed at low ownership from late in the lineup, any of the three can be played in combination with any of the top options from the Dodgers lineup. Peralta has the best hit-tool in the bunch at .276/.308/.415 with seven home runs, Heyward has 11 homers and a .224 ISO with a 119 WRC+ in 253 plate appearances, and Outman has 13 homers, 13 steals, and a 121 WRC+ in 383 plate appearances. Amed Rosario slots in between with five homers and 10 steals but potential for much stronger output for just $4,000/$2,800 with eligibility at both middle infield positions on DraftKings. The Dodgers will probably be popular, but they are a high-priority play in this matchup.
Julio Urias has a decent projection in the middle of the board for $9,100/$8,500, but the matchup against the Diamondbacks is not ideal for strikeout potential and they are carrying a mid-range 4.31-run implied total in Vegas. Urias has a 4.69 ERA and 4.31 xFIP with a 22.8% strikeout rate this season. He is good at limiting opportunities with just a 5.6% walk rate and he induces a 10.1% swinging-strike rate with a 28.6% CSW% on the season but he has allowed a bit too much power. The flyball-oriented lefty has yielded a 4.46% home run rate on 8.3% barrels but just 32% hard hits this season, when he makes mistakes they tend to travel great distances. Ketel Marte leads off for Arizona in the projected lineup for $5,300/$3,500, he is an excellent positional option with power and run-creation ability at second base. Corbin Carroll has been a star through most of the season but his power production has slowed over the past few weeks. The outfielder has 21 home runs and 36 stolen bases with a run creation mark 35% better than average overall, he is still pricey at $6,000/$4,100 but he has excellent any-given-slate potential and it is easy to average down his price with high-quality teammates in a stack. Tommy Pham has a 118 WRC+ with 10 home runs and 13 steals in 280 plate appearances as a strong outfield option, Christian Walker has premium power at first base with 23 home runs and a .248 ISO this year while striking out just 19% of the time, and Lourdes Gurriel has premium power with just a 16.3% strikeout rate but a down season in his triple-slash. Emmanuel Rivera makes sturdy contact but he has an 88 WRC+ overall, Jake McCarthy has an 87 WRC+ but 25 stolen bases and a .333 on-base percentage for cheap pricing late in the batting order, and the lineup ends with Nick Ahmed and Carson Kelly as low-end plays.
Play: Dodgers bats/stacks aggressively, Diamondbacks as a mid-level low-priority stack, Julio Urias as a fairly priced mid-range pitcher
Update Notes:
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