MLB DFS: DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slate Strategy Notes & Live Show Link – Sunday 7/30/23

The Sunday main slate is split with eight games on DraftKings and nine on FanDuel, including the late-afternoon game in Colorado. With Coors included, FanDuel has just one more excellent-looking spot for offense on a day with a strong slant toward bats. There are only a few high-end options on the mound, the pool will see concentrated public in the shallow end, diving into the depths of the lesser starters could create essential differentiation but the options are quite thin on a slate that will be won by bats.

Don’t miss our Suggested Stacks feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.

Join us at 11:00 ET for a rundown on today’s slate:

Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.

MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Notes – 7/30/23

Milwaukee Brewers (+172/4.90) @ Atlanta Braves (-207/6.89)

• Atlanta starter AJ Smith-Shawver is making his first start in the Show since June 23rd, he has been starting at AAA and pitching full innings, this may be a trade showcase start for the 20-year-old prospect. Smith-Shawver is a flamethrower with control issues, he has made three starts in the show, pitching 16.2 innings and posting a 21.7% strikeout rate with an 8.7% walk rate and a 4.32 ERA with a 5.37 xFIP, he has a 25.5% strikeout rate but 15.7% walk rate in an additional 24.1 innings in AAA. For $7,400/$8,300 with a question about whether he will see much more than four or five innings, Smith-Shawver is not a premium play on this slate but he projects in the lower-middle portion of the board if given five innings.
• The Brewers have a 4.90-run total on a day loaded with offense, they rank 10th for fantasy points and 11tth for home run upside but sixth on FanDuel and fourth on DraftKings for points-per-dollar value. Milwaukee has not been a great DFS lineup but they are cheap and have a few good bats with spare parts providing infrequent counting stats. Christian Yelich is the top priority, he is cheap in the outfield for a player with 15 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 129 WRC+. William Contreras is an affordable hard-hitting catcher with mixed results statistically, his 117 WRC+ is second on the team. Carlos Santana is a newly acquired switch-hitting veteran with power, he has 12 home runs and a .175 ISO this season. Willy Adames has 17 home runs to lead the team but is slashing .204/.287/.391 with an 83 WRC+. Sal Frelick is still cheap at $3,800/$3,000, he is a highly-regarded rookie in the outfield and has delivered in his early outings. Andruw Monasterio has a 117 WRC+ over 119 plate appearances, Tyrone Taylor is cheap with sneaky power potential, Brice Turang has not been very good and sits at 59 WRC+, and Joey Wiemer closes the lineup with potential for counting stats but not much reliability, he has 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases but an 82 WRC+.
• Righty Colin Rea costs $6,200/$7,000 with a 19.6% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate, he has pitched to a 4.53 ERA and 4.49 xFIP while allowing 3.93% home runs on 42.2% hard hits and 90.2 mph of exit velocity and he is facing the Braves. Rea is a target for bats on this slate, he does not look playable on the mound even in the most contrarian of lineups.
• The everyday version of the Atlanta lineup should be in place, they are playable from 1-9 as the team with the highest implied total of the day in Vegas, the highest average fantasy point projections, and the top home run ratings in our models. The Braves are simply too good, they are breaking fantasy baseball on a daily basis with their home run upside and the constant ability to find themselves in premium hitting matchups, they have a massive 6.89-run total that is nearly a half-run higher than the two teams in Coors Field. Ronald Acuna Jr. did end up stealing his 50th base last night, he also hit his 24th home run and is making history every day. Ozzie Albies has 24 home runs with a 17.70 in our model today to easily lead the second base position on both sites. Austin Riley has 23 long balls on the season, Matt Olson has 33 and leads the team with a 21.94 to more than double-up the “magic number” for home run upside, and Sean Murphy’s power bat should be back behind the plate, the catcher has 17 home runs and a 147 WRC+. Marcell Ozuna, Eddie Rosario, Orlando Arcia, and Michael Harris II are the best bottom four in baseball, they can be deployed in any combination with any of the top five hitters in the lineup.

Play: Braves bats/stacks aggressively despite any popularity, Brewers bats/stacks, Smith-Shawver value darts are just OK

Update Notes:

Philadelphia Phillies (-140/5.19) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+129/4.42)

• Lefty Rich Hill is not carrying a good projection for $6,300/$6,800 against the Phillies. Hill has a 19.1% strikeout rate but an 8.7% walk rate with a 1.47 WHIP and has pitched poorly through most of the season, posting a 4.82 ERA and 4.75 xFIP. The lefty has allowed a 10.2% barrel rate though it has not been tragic with only 2.76% home runs. Hill projects in the lower third of the pitching board and looks skippable in this spot with the Phillies pulling in a 5.19-run implied total.
• Philadelphia’s lineup is in play, Kyle Schwarber should not suffer from a same-handed matchup against this lefty, he has 27 home runs with a .250 ISO on the season and has a 12.50 in our home run model. Nick Castellanos is cheap at $4,400/$3,300, he has a 104 WRC+ with 14 home runs and six steals on the board. Bryce Harper has not hit for a ton of power this season but he has been very good otherwise and has a 115 WRC+ that leads the team. JT Realmuto is a premium catcher for MLB DFS, he has 12 home runs and a matching stolen base total. Alec Bohm is having a productive year at the plate slashing .279/.333/.409 with a 101 WRC+ but Trea Turner has been a letdown and was demoted down the lineup. For $5,600/$3,100 Turner is still a star shortstop at a bargain price but his season-long slump is difficult to ignore. Josh Harrison, Edmundo Sosa, and Johan Rojas round out the projected lineup as mix-in options.
• The Phillies have Cristopher Sanchez on the mound for $7,200/$8,800, he looks like a good option against a middling Pirates lineup that is filled with rookie hitters. Sanchez has made eight mostly good starts and thrown 42.1 innings this season, he has a 2.98 ERA and a 3.33 xFIP with a 22.9% strikeout rate and a terrific 3.6% walk rate with a 30.3% CSW% but has allowed too much premium contact with a 4.22% home run rate on 9.8% barrels and 41.8% hard hits. Sanchez is a good play at his pricing on both sites.
• Pittsburgh’s projected lineup opens with Connor Joe against the lefty, Joe has seven home runs and three stolen bases with a 104 WRC+ overall and a 141 WRC+ in 122 plate appearances against lefties. Bryan Reynolds has a 7.42 to lead the lineup in our home run model, he has 11 on the season in a bit of a down year. Andrew McCutchen has 10 homers and 10 stolen bases with a 118 WRC+ on the back of his .379 on-base percentage. Henry Davis has been the team’s top rookie with a .246/.338/.393 triple-slash, four home runs, and three steals in his 139 plate appearances. Endy Rodriguez has made 37 plate appearances, he has a home run and slots in as a cheap catcher. Jared Triolo is slashing .258/.323/.281 with a .022 ISO and 70 WRC+ in his first 99 plate appearances. Nick Gonzales, Alika Williams, and Austin Hedges round out the low-end lineup.

Play: Phillies bats/stacks, Cristopher Sanchez value

Update Notes:

Washington Nationals (+217/3.35) @ New York Mets (-241/5.26)

• Mets starter Justin Verlander should be on the mound but may also be on the trade block which means anything could happen with this outing. Verlander has been looking more like his old self on the mound over his last six starts, he has a 3.24 ERA overall for the season but a 4.53 xFIP that remains concerning and his strikeout rate is still very low at 20.9%. The righty struck out six hitters in three of his last five starts with seven in one of the others but only two in a start against the Padres on July 7th. The veteran has worked into the sixth inning or beyond when things are going well and he will have a premium matchup with the middling Nationals carrying a 3.35-run implied total.
• Washington hitters can be rostered in small doses with a focus on a few of the primary bats including CJ Abrams, a good leadoff hitter and cheap shortstop option with correlated scoring upside, and Lane Thomas, the team’s best player this season. Thomas has 16 home runs with 12 stolen bases and a 116 WRC+, Jeimer Candelario is an easy option at third base when stacking Nationals, he has 16 home runs and a .225 ISO this season. Joey Meneses has a better hit tool than he does power, Keibert Ruiz should be back behind the plate with a bit of home run upside on the right day, and no one else in the projected lineup has much appeal. Corey Dickerson, Luis Garcia, Dominic Smith, and Alex Call are all well below average for run creation on the season and they are facing Justin Verlander, even in his diminished form this is not a good matchup.
• Righty Trevor Williams costs $6,000/$6,700 against a Mets team that is carrying a 5.26-run implied total and looking like a good source of MLB DFS scoring. Williams has a 4.47 ERA with a 5.05 xFIP and just a 16.7% strikeout rate on the season, he has allowed 4.57% home runs and a 9.8% barrel rate and is not a good option on the mound.
• Mets hitters are flashing a bit of potential for power and they have good run creation and sequencing options in other spots in the lineup, they are a playable stack that ranks seventh overall by home run potential on this slate but does have some low projections in the overall sense. Brandon Nimmo is a priority bat in the leadoff role, he has individual upside and correlated scoring potential. Francisco Lindor is a star shortstop at a discounted price, he has power and speed and is another priority hitter when stacking Mets. Jeff McNeil is not a priority, the slap-hitter has cheap pricing and multi-position eligibility, he can be rostered and is a good option for runs on the right day, but he needs a lot of luck and help from his teammates. Pete Alonso is the top priority in the Mets lineup, the slugger has a 16.25 in our home run model for the day with 30 long balls in the books already this year. Daniel Vogelbach, DJ Stewart, and Mark Canha are lower-end options that are playable in the heart of the lineup at cheap prices. Brett Baty has a decent bat but is still finding his stride in the Show, and Omar Narvaez slots in as a playable veteran catcher with a bit of power.

Play: Mets bats/stacks, Justin Verlander

Update Notes:

Detroit Tigers (+132/3.23) @ Miami Marlins (-143/3.84)

• Miami starter Jesus Luzardo leads the slate with a very strong projection and an $11,000 price tag on both sites. Luzardo is an excellent option who will be wildly popular despite the high prices, he is well worth the effort given a 29.4% strikeout rate and a 3.22 ERA with a 3.44 xFIP against one of baseball’s worst lineups. Detroit’s active roster sits 22nd with a 95 WRC+ against left-handed pitching and they have a 21.7% strikeout rate in the split. Luzardo’s popularity will be justified but it is important to remember the limiting factor that his high salary has on potential lineup combinations on a day with a deadly amount of hitting.
• Matt Vierling leads off against lefties, he has a 103 WRC+ with seven home runs and five stolen bases in a limited 312 plate appearances. Riley Greene has eight home runs and is slashing .308/.372/.466 with a 135 WRC+ overall with a 118 WRC+ against fellow lefties. Spencer Torkelson has good right-handed power with 15 home runs on the board and a 12.5% barrel rate. Andy Ibanez falls to an 87 WRC+ in the split against lefties, he has not been good this season. Kerry Carpenter has power but has fallen apart against same-handed pitching this season in a small sample. Javier Baez has not been at all good and has a 62 WRC+ over 412 plate appearances. Miguel Cabrera has an 87 WRC+ overall and a 125 mark in his 65 plate appearances against lefties this season. Jake Rogers and Zack Short round out the projected Tigers lineup as mix-in options, Rogers has big right-handed power if he connects but he also strikes out at a 33.5% clip.
• The Tigers have a very capable lefty going as well, Tarik Skubal has a 35.4% strikeout rate in his 17 innings and four starts this season and he worked in the mid-20% range in more complete samples each of the last two seasons. Skubal has a 3.71 ERA and 2.43 xFIP and has only walked 4.6% in his four outings since returning, he costs $8,700/$9,300 on this slate and should be stretched out to a full start with potential for six innings or more. Skubal is on the board but Miami has been good against lefties this year, the team has a collective 123 WRC+ with just a 19.6% strikeout rate in the split, they present a challenge for Skubal on this slate.
• Luis Arraez is slashing .381/.429/.478 with a 149 WRC+ in 421 plate appearances and .385/.410/.436 with a 136 WRC+ against same-handed pitching, he is an excellent option to start a stack of Marlins. Jorge Soler has 10 home runs with a .311/.416/.757 triple-slash and a massive .446 ISO against left-handed pitching. Bryan De La Cruz has 14 home runs and a 105 WRC+ on the season and makes a good option with a sturdy hit tool for $3,700/$3,200. Avisail Garcia has made just 76 plate appearances, he has three home runs and has been very good against lefties in his career, the veteran costs $2,300/$2,400 in the outfield if he plays today. Yuli Gurriel, Jean Segura, Jon Berti, Nick Fortes, and Dane Myers are mix-in options later in the lineup.

Play: Jesus Luzardo, Tarik Skubal, Marlins bats/stacks in smaller portions

Update Notes:

Minnesota Twins (-160/5.36) @ Kansas City Royals (+147/4.25)

• Lefty Ryan Yarbrough gets the start for Kansas City and has the Twins pulling in a 5.36-run implied total as a very good value option on both sites. Yarbrough worked into the sixth inning in each of three starts in July since returning to the rotation after missing most of May and June, he has a 4.70 ERA and 5.39 xFIP with a 13% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate over 44 innings and six starts on the whole and is a middling option for value at $5,300/$7,300, there is some dart-throw potential against the extremely high-strikeout Twins lineup if Yarbrough can work six innings, but the path to success is very thin and unlikely.
• Minnesota’s lineup looks like a key stack for value, they rank seventh by collective MLB DFS projections and eighth by home run upside but second by points-per-dollar value on FanDuel and first on DraftKings. Carlos Correa is another star shortstop in a season-long slump. Correa has a dozen home runs and a 94 WRC+ over 411 mediocre-to-bad plate appearances. Jorge Polanco is a premium source of power at second base but he has made just 137 plate appearances this season. Byron Buxton has all-world talent but he has had a bad season at .206/.295/.436. Buxton has 17 home runs and a .230 ISO that are still appealing for $5,000/$3,200, he is cheap for his talent. Donovan Solano slots into multiple positions on both sites and has a good hit tool with a 117 WRC+ over 289 plate appearances. Kyle Farmer has sneaky power and cheap multi-position eligibility. Alex Kirilloff is a good left-handed hitter for a cheap price at first base, Willi Castro has speed with 26 stolen bases on the season, and Ryan Jeffers offers power behind the plate from the right side. Michael A. Taylor has 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases and costs $2,200/$2,500.
• Right-handed veteran Kenta Maeda costs $8,500/$9,900 in a high-end spot against the Royals, he projects as a top-five option on the board and is a cut line between the first and second-tier of starters on this slate. Maeda has a 28.9% strikeout rate with a 4.62 ERA and 3.83 xFIP over 10 starts and 48.2 innings, he is a very good right-handed starter in a good spot.
• Kansas City’s lineup has only a few easily playable parts, primarily rolling Bobby Witt Jr. who won Friday’s game with a walk-off grand slam and then hit a home run in his first opportunity on Saturday. Witt is up to 104 WRC+ after the hot star to the weekend, he is a good option at shortstop for $5,100/$3,400. Leadoff man Maikel Garcia has four home runs and 14 stolen bases with a 91 WRC+. MJ Melendez has a 51.8% hard-hit rate with an 11.7% barrel rate and very little to show for it, the lefty slugger is very cheap at $2,900/$2,800. Sal Perez has 17 home runs and a .185 ISO in a bit of a down season overall for the powerhouse catcher. Freddy Fermin, Michael Massey, Kyle Isbel, Drew Waters, and Nicky Lopez are mix-and-match options through the bottom of the lineup.

Play: Kenta Maeda, Twins bats/stacks, Royals bats/stacks as a value dart, Ryan Yarbrough value darts as a cheap DraftKings SP2

Update Notes:

Tampa Bay Rays (-109/4.61) @ Houston Astros (-110/4.62)

• Astros starter Brandon Bielak has a 3.62 ERA and 4.82 xFIP with a limited 18.2% strikeout rate and just a 9.5% swinging-strike rate, he is not a high-end option against a Rays team carrying a 4.61-run implied total. Bielak costs $6,800/$8,600, he is more in play on DraftKings as an SP2 than he is on the single-starter site.
• The Rays lineup is flashing a significant upside for power with five of the hitters in the projected batting order landing above the “magic number” for home run potential. Yandy Diaz sits just below that line at 9.14 in the home run model, he has 14 on the season with a 155 WRC+ and has set the pace for Tampa Bay all year. Wander Franco has 12 home runs and 29 stolen bases, Luke Raley has 15 homers and 11 steals with a 12.25 to lead the team in the home run model, and Randy Arozarena is the star in the outfield with 17 home runs and 12 steals with a 131 WRC+ over 434 plate appearances. Brandon Lowe is the overall home run pick for Sunday afternoon, he has a 10.07 in the home run model and slots in at $4,300/$3,100 at second base. Isaac Paredes has a 10.01 in the model and 20 home runs in the books in just 349 plate appearances, Josh Lowe has 13 homers and 22 stolen bases with a 118 WRC+ over 312, and Jose Siri has another 20 homers in just 250 plate appearances. The Rays have cooled after their absurd start to the season but this is still a deadly-good lineup that projects very well in this matchup. Tampa Bay ranks third for MLB DFS scoring and third for power in our stack tool today.
• The Astros will be facing Zack Littell for two or three innings in a bullpen game, Littell has a 23.9% strikeout rate with a 5.11 ERA and 3.36 xFIP but is not likely to provide much value for $4,000/$5,500.
• Houston ranks sixth by projections and second for home run potential today, they posted a massive game last night and have major scoring potential on any given slate. Jose Altuve is a star second baseman for $5,700/$3,600 he has seven home runs and five stolen bases this season. Jeremy Pena has been lousy, slashing just .237/.290/.373 and creating runs 17% worse than average with just 10 home runs and 10 steals in 397 opportunities. Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez are a pair of left-handed star power hitters with excellent hit tools in the heart of the lineup with Alex Bregman slotting in between with his powerful bat from the right side. The trio has significant potential for home runs, all three hitters have 18 long balls on the season, though Alvarez is easily the best of the bunch. Jose Abreu has 10 home runs on the season and is all the way up to an 84 WRC+, he is threatening to pull himself up to or even above the waterline for run creation in what was a tragic season when June began. Chas McCormick has 13 home runs and 11 stolen bases with a 150 WRC+ on the season, Corey Julks and Martin Maldonado are more mix-in options late in the lineup.

Play: Rays bats/stacks, Astros bats/stacks

Update Notes:

Cleveland Guardians (-135/4.87) @ Chicago White Sox (+125/4.22)

• Righty Michael Kopech slots into the middle of the pitching board by projection for the day, he is a playable option on both sites for $7,400/$8,400 but he is in no way safe. Kopech has a 4.44 ERA with a 5.22 xFIP on the season. The righty has struck out 25% of opposing hitters but has walked an unsustainable 13.6% which combines horribly with a 5.14% home run rate and 14.6% barrel rate. Kopech can, and should, be targeted with Guardians bats in equal shares to his usage on the mound at the least.
• Cleveland has a 4.87-run implied total and they are a team filled with hitters who do not help pitchers with easy strikeouts, Cleveland is a playable stack that has potential for a ceiling score despite the disappointments they have provided again and again this season. Steven Kwan has a 103 WRC+ he has bounced above and below the waterline over the past two weeks but has been a bit better overall. Andres Gimenez has a 90 WRC+ with nine home runs and 17 steals and a better job hitting second in the lineup on a daily basis. Jose Ramirez has 16 home runs and 13 stolen bases, he has not been a superstar this year but he is still very good with a 128 WRC+ for $6,100/$4,200. Josh Naylor has a $4.500/$3,500 price at first base, Josh Bell slots into the same position for $3,000/$2,800 creating an interesting decision point in DraftKings tournaments. Both players can hit for power, Naylor has been far better this season but they have similar ceilings overall. Will Brennan has an 84 WRC+ and lacks significant upside but he is a playable part, Gabriel Arias has ceiling-score power but a weak hit tool that handicaps him somewhat at the plate, and Bo Naylor is a cheap power-hitting rookie catcher. Myles Straw is a defender and an afterthought for MLB DFS in all but a few stacks of Guardians.
• The White Sox will face righty Aaron Civale who projects fairly well and ranks fifth on the board as the top pitcher in the short second tier. Civale has a 2.54 ERA and a 4.61 xFIP with a 19% strikeout rate over 71 innings in 12 outings this season. For $8,100/$9,400 Civale is a strong buy on both sites, he will likely be a popular option from the second tier of pricing on the mound as well.
• Chicago’s lineup can be played back at Civale as a mid-level option, there are good hitters but he has the talent to keep them down and they have a limited 4.22-run implied total in Vegas. Andrew Benintendi should be back in the leadoff spot, he is exactly at league-average for run creation coming into the day. Tim Anderson hit his first home run of the season last night and is up to a 60 WRC+ over 353 plate appearances, he has a long way to go to turn things around to any sort of respectability, but Anderson is a very good shortstop who has been looking better over the last few weeks. Luis Robert Jr. has 29 home runs and 12 stolen bases as the team’s star outfielder. Eloy Jimenez is affordable for his talent at $4,200/$3,200, he has a .285/.330/.477 triple-slash and 13 home runs with a 120 WRC+ on the year. Yoan Moncada and Yasmani Grandal are playable options at third base and catcher from later in the lineup, they are joined by power-hitting Jake Burger who has 25 long balls on the season, and rookie Oscar Colas who has just one home run but the rumor of left-handed power. Seby Zavala is projected to hit ninth, he has power behind the plate but is a very inconsistent contributor as a backup catcher.

Play: Aaron Civale, White Sox bats/stacks, Guardians bats/stacks, Michael Kopech value darts

Update Notes:

Chicago Cubs (+118/4.53) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-128/5.07)

• Lefty Steven Matz is a roughly league-average pitcher who can get blown up at times on the mound. Matz was good in his last outing with six strikeouts and six shutout innings, allowing just five hits and a walk, and he has a 4.34 ERA with a 3.92 xFIP overall this season. Matz has struck out 22.4% in 87 innings and 14 outings, he is a playable part of the slate at $8,100 on FanDuel and he is a potentially significant source of value for $5,800 on the DraftKings board. Matz is a more talented pitcher than that price would suggest, he is a very strong SP2 option for the extreme discount.
• With the lefty pitching we will probably see Nico Hoerner in the leadoff role, he has a 98 WRC+ with 25 stolen bases this season. Seiya Suzuki climbs to the second spot, he has a 100 WRC+ overall this year and costs $3,100/$2,900 in the outfield. Ian Happ has a .377 on-base percentage as an excellent table-setter who has power of his own at the plate, he has 10 home runs and a 117 WRC+ on the year. Cody Bellinger is a star who will be on a different team by Wednesday morning, he costs $5,200/$4,100 as an excellent option for power, speed, and run creation in the heart of the Cubs lineup. Dansby Swanson has a disappointing 12 home runs in 397 plate appearances, he has had multiple seasons in the mid-20s and was expected to do more at the plate this year but he is a good value play on this slate. Christopher Morel has significant power potential, Trey Mancini has a bit of pop but just four home runs in 259 plate appearances, and Patrick Wisdom is a masher in the eighth spot in the projected lineup. Wisdom has 18 home runs and a .293 ISO this season. Miguel Amaya is a mix-in value catcher.
• Soft-tossing righty Kyle Hendricks is a take-him or leave-him option on the mound for $8,000/$6,500, he projects just OK as the third member of the third tier of starters today, joining options like Kopech and Bielak. Hendricks has a 16.1% strikeout rate with a 3.45 ERA and 4.53 xFIP with a sparkling 3.9% walk rate. The veteran does not get himself in trouble but he is more of an innings eater than a premium option when it comes to DFS scoring. Hendricks is a playable part for his value pricing, particularly on DraftKings, but he is not a high-priority play at the same time.
• St. Louis bats are the more interesting option in the matchup, the team is pulling a 5.07-run implied total in Vegas and they have several excellent options in the lineup. Brendan Donovan is slashing .281/.362/.419 with a 119 WRC+ and 11 home runs for just $3,600/$3,000 with triple-position eligibility on the blue site. Paul Goldschmidt has 18 home runs with nine stolen bases and a 132 WRC+, Lars Nootbaar has 10 homers and seven stolen bases with a 126 mark for run creation from the left side, and Nolan Arenado – who has been assured he is staying in St. Louis after the rumor mill got to him – has 22 home runs and a 126 WRC+ in the heart of the lineup. The trio is a great power core with a bit of speed added, they are the priority bats in a good 1-9 lineup, with Donovan acting as a high-end bolt-on who can be joined by catcher William Contreras and infielder Nolan Gorman who both provide positional power. Gorman has excellent upside, he has hit 22 home runs this season and has an 11.04 in our home run model tonight. Tyler O’Neill hit 34 home runs two years ago the last time he was fully healthy, Jordan Walker and Paul DeJong are also in play from the bottom of the lineup.

Play: Cardinals bats/stacks, Steven Matz value as a mid-level option, Cubs bats/stacks, Kyle Hendricks value darts

Update Notes:

Oakland Athletics (-110/6.41) @ Colorado Rockies (-110/6.41)

• This game is only available on FanDuel, neither pitcher is in play on the blue site. Ty Blach has a 9.2% strikeout rate over 16.1 innings and one start, he will throw a few innings for Colorado at best. Luis Medina has been highly targetable all season, he has a 5.50 ERA and 4.53 xFIP with a 22.5% strikeout rate and a 3.86% home run rate on 41.2% hard hits.
• Tony Kemp is a lousy leadoff option for the Oakland lineup, but the rising tide of Coors Field lifts even these leaky old boats, Kemp is in play in stacks of Athletics despite a 77 WRC+ with a .216/.300/.310 triple-slash. Zack Gelof has good right-handed power, he has three home runs and five stolen bases in his limited 56 plate appearances since being called up. Brent Rooker hit his 17th home run last night, he has a 130 WRC+ on the season mostly on the back of his outrageous start in April. Jordan Diaz has a 100 WRC+ with six home runs, Ramon Laureano has six homers and eight stolen bases but an 83 WRC+ in 234 chances this year, and JJ Bleday has eight home runs and a .173 ISO from the left side of the plate. Aledmys Diaz, Shea Langeliers, and Nick Allen are low-end mix-in options, the team has several rookies who would be better served by this playing time even with a left-handed opener on the mound.
• The Rockies are pulling in a 6.41-run implied total that matches their opponent in a pick’em game in Vegas. Jurickson Profar has a 78 WRC+ with a .243/.325/.373 triple-slash and seven home runs in a lousy season atop the Rockies lineup. Ryan McMahon has 16 home runs and good lefty power to throw at Medina, he has an 8.48 in our home run model for $3,800 at second or third base. Randal Grichuk has a 6.09 in the home run model and has hit eight in his 259 plate appearances while slashing .312/.367/.502 with a 119 WRC+. CJ Cron has 11 home runs in 220 plate appearances, Nolan Jones has nine in 181 from the left side and is carrying a 7.39 in the home run model, and Elias Diaz has provided reliably playable output as a cheap catcher at Coors Field this season. Ezequiel Tovar, Michael Toglia, and Harold Castro round out the projected Rockies lineup as playable parts, Toglia is a young slugger who is expected to hit more than he has, he could be sneaky in stacks of Rockies.

Play: bats bats bats

Update Notes:

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