The Saturday slate features eight games on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, with a fairly strong top-end of the pitching board and plenty of opportunity at the plate in a wide-open setup. There are a few high-quality arms that will draw most of the attention on the mound and there is a broad middle that is made up of mostly lower-end pitchers who project OK against bad teams for low prices. Beyond that threshold in the middle there is a ton of power and run-creation potential showing in our models against the lousy starters, openers, and bulk relievers who comprise the bottom of the pitching board.
Don’t miss our Suggested Stacks feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
Join us at 4:15 ET for a rundown on today’s slate.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 8/26/23
Colorado Rockies (+256/3.17) @ Baltimore Orioles (-289/5.46)
- Orioles righty Kyle Bradish is a strong option on this pitching slate, he ranks second on the board for just $9,000/$10,300 in a premium matchup against the scuffling Rockies. Colorado has been baseball’s worst team for run creation against pitchers of either hand; against righties, they have a collective 83 WRC+ with a 25.7% strikeout rate and a .159 ISO. Bradish has a 3.03 ERA and 3.75 xFIP with a 23.6% strikeout rate over 127.2 innings and 23 starts in a strong season that has shown year-over-year growth.
- The Rockies rank 15th out of 16 by collective fantasy point projections tonight with a 10th-ranked home run mark, the low-end team is not a priority for stacking. Charlie Blackmon is affordable for his talent atop the lineup for $4,200/$2,600, Ezequiel Tovar has 15 home runs and seven stolen bases in a good-not-great rookie campaign, and Ryan McMahon is the team’s top power hitter from the left side of the plate. McMahon has 21 home runs, Nolan Jones sits at 13 as the other major left-handed power threat in this lineup and he costs just $4,400/$3,300. Brendan Rodgers and Elias Diaz are playable mix-in options if one were to stack Rockies in a low-end spot, Rodgers has hit mid-teens home run totals in the past two seasons and Diaz is having a good year as an inexpensive catcher. Jurickson Profar, Elehuris Montero, and Brenton Doyle round out the projected batting order as mix-in parts with Montero carrying the best projected power.
- Righty Chris Flexen is taking the mound for Colorado for just $5,000/$6,200, he is not worth the salary. Flexen has a 7.18 ERA with a 5.15 xFIP and a 15.9% strikeout rate this season while allowing a 6.05% home run rate in 67.2 innings over nine starts. The righty is a target for Orioles hitters, nothing more.
- Baltimore bats are ranked in the middle of the board by fantasy point projections, they are a strong option for quality on this slate and there are several key hitters worth focusing on in stacks. Adley Rutschman is one of the top catcher options on the slate, he gains value hitting in the leadoff role and he has both power and on-base skills at the plate. Gunnar Henderson is a quality left-handed hitter with power, he has 22 home runs and a .234 ISO with a 122 WRC+ on the season. Anthony Santander leads the team with 24 home runs, Ryan Mountcastle slots in on the right side of the plate with 18 home runs and a 13.8% barrel rate with a 47.1% hard-hit rate. Ryan O’Hearn and Austin Hays are mix-in options from the middle of the quality board in the heart of the lineup, O’Hearn has a 5.51 in our home run model with 10 on the board, the right-handed Hays has a 3.74 with 13 in the books this season. Cedric Mullins has power and speed for $4,900/$3,500 and he is far too talented to find lurking late in a lineup. Ramon Urias and Adam Frazier are playable parts from the bottom two spots for value.
Play: Orioles bats/stacks, Kyle Bradish
Update Notes:
San Diego Padres (+126/3.98) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-137/4.62)
- Over 24 starts and 133.2 innings, Brewers righty Freddy Peralta has a 3.97 ERA and a 3.69 xFIP with a terrific 30.2% strikeout rate and a 1.18 WHIP. Peralta has induced a 14.5% swinging-strike rate with a 29.6% CSW% and he has given up a 3.41% home run rate on 36.9% hard hits this year. Peralta has been better at limiting power in seasons past, but the few additional home runs this season have been the only blip in an otherwise outstanding campaign, Peralta is one of the leading options near the top of a strong pitching slate.
- The Padres top-heavy lineup has premium talents available at high prices. Ha-Seong Kim has a $5,000/$3,200 price tag and eligibility at second and third on DraftKings, adding shortstop on the FanDuel slate. Kim has hit 17 home runs and stolen 29 bases this season with a 129 WRC+ in his 494 plate appearances, he is a terrific infield play to correlate with the team’s star power. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 20 home runs and 23 stolen bases with a .200 ISO and 50.9% hard hits. Juan Soto has ripped 24 long balls and is one behind Manny Machado for the team lead. The third baseman has a .214 ISO with a 115 WRC+ and Soto leads the team at 142 WRC+ with a .221 ISO. Xander Bogaerts is down to .261/.333/.393 but he still carries a 105 WRC+ and any-given-slate upside. Ben Gamel, Luis Campusano, Garrett Cooper, and Trent Grisham are mix-in options late in the lineup. Cooper is an interesting bat with 14 home runs in 366 plate appearances this season for a cheap price.
- Righty Pedro Avila is slated to start for San Diego for $6,000/$6,300, he has a 1.17 ERA and 3.20 xFIP in 23 innings and one start, pitching to a 28.9% strikeout rate. Avila has been working in the four-inning range in bulk relief, his one start came on August 1st, he worked four innings at Colorado and struck out seven while allowing a lone run and walking three. Avila should not be expected to work beyond four, possibly five, innings tonight, he has a very limited ceiling for fantasy scoring on this slate but he outpaces a few of the bulk relievers.
- The Brewers rank 11th on our tightly-packed projections board but seventh by FanDuel points-per-dollar and fourth on DraftKings, with a second-ranked home run mark on the board and five players in the lineup carrying marks above the “magic number” for home run potential in our model. Christian Yelich sits at 12.66 in the home run model, he has 16 on the season with 27 stolen bases and a 123 WRC+ in 545 opportunities. William Contreras sees bonus plate appearances for his position by virtue of hitting second every day, the backstop has a 118 WRC+ and a .172 ISO with 13 home runs in a strong season at the plate. Carlos Santana is a switch-hitter with power he has 18 home runs this season and a .182 ISO and he comes cheap at $3,900/$2,900. Willy Adames checks in at shortstop for $4,200/$2,900 with 21 home runs but only a .216/.298/.401 triple-slash. Rowdy Tellez has a 12.03 in the home run model, he has 13 on the board this season after getting back on track last night. Tellez ranks behind Adames at 12.81, and Yelich, but sits ahead of Contreras at 10.97 and Santana at 10.47 in the home run model. Mark Canha, Andruw Monasterio, Brice Turang, and Tyrone Taylor are mix-in options late in the lineup. Canha has a bit of right-handed power for cheap pricing, Monasterio has a 92 WRC+ with three homers and five stolen bases, Turang has six home runs and 17 steals and is possibly the most interesting player in the group, and Taylor offers sneaky power in the ninth spot.
Play: Freddy Peralta, Brewers bats/stacks, Padres bats in smaller shares
Update Notes:
Oakland Athletics (+119/4.76) @ Chicago White Sox (-129/5.35)
- Right-handed Touki Toussaint has a 22.1% strikeout rate but a problematic 5.30 ERA and 5.07 xFIP in 54.1 innings and nine starts this season. Toussaint has allowed a 3.28% home run rate on 8.2% barrels and a 41.8% hard-hit rate on the season, he has not been a disaster for premium contact and power, but he has also not been limiting them effectively. Toussaint has a 1.55 WHIP and has induced just a 9.7% swinging-strike rate with a 28% CSW%. With more power in the Oakland lineup these days and a few interesting left-handed hitters who can exploit the atrocious 16.8% walk rate that Toussaint is also carrying, Oakland hitters look like the more interesting end of this connection. Toussaint is not off the board, he is at a value price of just $7,000 on both sites, but he is more of a dart throw for value than a trustworthy starter, even against what has been a bad club.
- Ryan Noda adds a good left-handed bat with his recent return to the lineup. Noda has made 361 plate appearances and he has a .385 on-base percentage with a .190 ISO and 12 home runs on his 13.3% barrel rate and 45.7% hard-hit rate. Zack Gelof is expensive at second base for $5,700/$4,000, he has 10 home runs and eight stolen bases in his first 156 plate appearances in the Show in an outstanding debut. Seth Brown is out overall home run pick on the slate at 11.46 in our home run model, he is one of three Athletics hitters, including Gelof and Brent Rooker, who land over the “magic number” for power. Gelof has an 11.51 in the home run model, Noda has a 9.38 at the top of the lineup, and Rooker checks in at 12.96 to lead the team for power potential. The flawed righty has 22 homers on the season with a .229 ISO and a strong contact profile, regardless of his overall lack of quality at the plate he is easy to reach at $4,100/$2,900. Tony Kemp is a low-end lefty later in the lineup, he has an 86 WRC+ in 352 plate appearances. Shea Langeliers has hit 15 cheap home runs at catcher, he is rarely popular. Lawrence Butler, Jonah Bride, and last night’s hero Nick Allen round out the lineup as playable lower-priority parts in stacks of Athletics hitters.
- JP Sears has a 4.61 ERA and 5.09 xFIP with a 22.3% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate on the season. The southpaw has had his good outings this year but he is less than reliable on the mound, even against a limited opponent like Chicago. Sears has yielded a massive 4.92% home run rate on 12.7% barrels in his 134.2 innings and 25 starts. There is potential for Sears going forward and he has delivered a few good outings this season, for $7,700/$7,400 he is not out of the pool when it comes to value options, he projects into the middle of the board one pitcher below Toussaint on the other side of this game, with similarly limited Carlos Carrasco slotting in between.
- Tim Anderson is cheap at $3,100/$2,500 at shortstop, he has been bad all season with a 60 WRC+ overall but he has been quietly above-average for run creation against lefties and he has a strong spot in the batting order. Andrew Benintendi loses quality in the same-handed matchup and he has been six percent below average for run creation on the season. Luis Robert Jr. has 34 home runs and a team-leading 10.34 in the home run model tonight. Eloy Jimenez is cheap at $3,800/$2,900 in the outfield, he has a 47.9% hard-hit rate with a 7.45 in our home run model tonight. Andrew Vaughn has 16 home runs and a .176 ISO with a 107 WRC+ this season, he also comes cheap at $3,300/$2,900 at first base. Yoan Moncada had a good bat two years ago but has been more lost at the plate over 685 plate appearances between the last two seasons. Moncada is slashing just .232/.274/.350 with a 68 WRC+ this season. Yasmani Grandal is a mix-in at catcher, Trayce Thompson has big right-handed power for $2,700/$2,400 in the outfield late in the lineup, and Elivs Andrus has been mostly overrated for his entire career and sits at 76 WRC+ this season.
Play: Athletics bats/stacks for power and value in the mid-range, White Sox bats/stacks as a lower-end option, pitchers are at your own risk value darts at best, we prefer other spots.
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Angels (-111/4.63) @ New York Mets (+103/4.46)
- Mets righty Carlos Carrasco and Angels starter Chase Silseth both rank in the middle of the pitching board along with Toussaint and Sears in a block of mid-priced mediocrity that can be utilized in rotation as a value core with moderate expectations for one to succeed. Carrasco has a 16% strikeout rate with a 6.42 ERA and 4.93 xFIP in his 19 starts and 88.1 innings this season. The veteran starter has allowed a 4.20% home run rate on 10.5% barrels, his opponent has given up a 4.69% home run rate on 10.8% barrels in his more limited 45-inning sample in six starts. Silseth has a 26% strikeout rate but a 10.9% walk rate with a 4.00 ERA and 3.79 xFIP on the season, he is a $6,600/$7,700 option. Carrasco is cheaper where the SP2 role is critical, for just $5,500 there is enough potential for him to find a few strikeouts in a handful of innings against the Los Angeles lineup, but he is in no way safe and there is power aplenty for the Angels.
- Nolan Schanuel leads off the projected lineup from the left side, he has a 161 WRC+ and .516 on-base percentage over his first 31 plate appearances in the Show and he correlates directly with Shohei Ohtani and Brandon Drury. Ohtani has 44 home runs and 17 stolen bases, he is playing through a torn UCL in his elbow and may need surgery soon, but as long as he is in the Los Angeles lineup he can be in our stacks. Drury has 18 home runs, Mike Moustakas has 12 and a 97 WRC+ in a decent bounce-back season, and Luis Rengifo slots in with 11 long balls and a 99 WRC+ on the board in 396 chances. Logan O’Hoppe has five homers in 81 plate appearances with a .233 ISO, he missed most of the season but was expected to hit for power at this level. Hunter Renfroe, Mickey Moniak, and Randal Grichuk all have an upside for power and run creation for cheap pricing late in the batting order. The Angels lineup is playable from 1-9 in a variety of combinations, they lose a major bit of quality if (when) Ohtani decides to hang it up for the season.
- Brandon Nimmo has a 46.4% hard-hit rate with 18 home runs and a 123 WRC+ this season, he is a strong leadoff option for the Mets and in stacks of Mets hitters. Nimmo remains affordable for $4,500/$3,000 despite his excellence and the strong spot in the batting order. Francisco Lindor has a 15.26 in our home run model, Nimmo is at 12.02 and slugger Pete Alonso checks in at 22.49 to lead the entire day in the home run model. Lindor has 24 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 546 plate appearances and Alonso has 39 long balls with a .303 ISO. Jeff McNeil has a .266/.336/.355 triple-slash on the season with bad luck in his BABIP. Daniel Vogelbach has 11 homers in a 103 WRC+ this season, DJ Stewart has six homers in just 85 plate appearances this season, and he is a cheap lefty bat for $2,700/$2,400. Francisco Alvarez has a 16.12 in the home run model as the last major piece of the puzzle for the Mets, though he has cooled significantly since his major power outburst earlier in the year. Rafael Ortega and Jonathan Arauz round out the lineup.
Play: Angels bats/stacks, Mets bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Texas Rangers (-114/3.89) @ Minnesota Twins (+105/3.70)
- Minnesota righty Joe Ryan has a $9,600/$10,300 salary with a 29.1% strikeout rate and a terrific 4.8% walk rate this season. Ryan has a 4.43 ERA and 3.82 xFIP with a 14% swinging-strike rate and he has allowed a 4.78% home run rate on 42.5% hard hits with 89.9 mph of exit velocity. Ryan projects well against the Rangers but he is not nearly safe against the hard-hitting elite lineup that Texas brings to bear. For his hefty salary, the hope will have to be that Ryan goes a bit under-owned going into the slate, he has a high ceiling based on strikeouts and innings but things could easily go pear-shaped given the premium contact he has allowed this season.
- Marcus Semien and Corey Seager check in atop a Rangers lineup that is limited to just 3.89 implied runs in Vegas. Both sides of this game are carrying low totals, with Sin City supporting the notion of a pitching duel. Semien has a 120 WRC+ in 284 opportunities, and Seager has been 87% better than average for run creation over 386 chances. Nathaniel Lowe has 15 home runs and a 126 WRC+ for just $4,600/$3,400 at first base. Adolis Garcia has blasted 31 home runs with a .248 ISO, he has an 11.31 in the home run model tonight, slotting in just behind Seager at 11.96. Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim both slot in as power-hitting catchers for fair prices, they both hit for average and have sturdy triple-slash and run-creation numbers on the year. Travis Jankowski, Ezequiel Duran, and Leody Taveras slid in with a bit of power and speed at the bottom of the lineup. Duran has three-position eligibility on FanDuel for $4,900/$2,800, Taveras has slipped to just 96 WRC+ but he has good qualities for DFS value, and Jankowski has a strong hit tool and speed.
- Minnesota is facing Max Scherzer on the other side of the strongly pitching-slanted game. Scherzer projects at the very top of the board for pitchers, he has a 28.1% strikeout rate with a 3.77 ERA and 3.98 xFIP in 131.1 innings and 23 starts this year. The veteran righty has induced a 13.4% swinging-strike rate on the season but he has allowed a 4.47% home run rate on nine percent barrels this season. Scherzer is a big-ticket item tonight, he costs $12,000/$11,000 but seems worthwhile against the high-strikeout Twins lineup.
- Minnesota’s projected batting order has a 28.4% collective strikeout rate this season, they are ranked 12th by fantasy point projections and they land ninth for points-per-dollar value on both sites and home run potential. Edouard Julien has a 6.89 in the home run model for $3,600/$2,900 at second base, he has 11 home runs with a .194 ISO and 138 WRC+ in 284 opportunities as a rookie this season. Jorge Polanco has eight home runs in 231 opportunities, he is a major source of power in the infield on any given slate. Carlos Correa has 16 home runs and a .177 ISO with a 45% hard-hit rate for just $4,500/$3,000. Max Kepler is a stout left-handed power bat, he has 21 home runs and a .238 ISO this year. Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner are good young options later in the lineup, Lewis has a .328/.377/.508 triple-slash in 138 plate appearances while Wallner has hit nine homers in 143 chances. Christian Vazquez is a cheap mix-in, Joey Gallo has tons of power but also strikes out at a league-high 42.9% rate, and Michael A. Taylor is one of our favorite sneaky last men in, he has 19 home runs and 12 stolen bases on the season and is rarely popular for $2,600/$2,800. The Twins are not a high-priority stack against Scherzer with a low run total in Vegas, but they do have a bit of contrarian power potential at cheap pricing.
Play: Max Scherzer, Joe Ryan, Rangers bats/stacks in small portions, Twins bats only for cheap contrarian value in small shares
Update Notes:
St. Louis Cardinals (+193/3.49) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-214/5.13)
- High-quality veteran righty Zack Wheeler is on the mound for Philadelphia with St. Louis checked to just 3.49 implied runs on the other side of the game. Wheeler is a terrific option on most slates, the Cardinals are not a pushover lineup from a talent perspective, results or not, but Wheeler is more than capable of shutting them down and outpitching even the low Vegas total. The righty has a 3.70 ERA and 3.55 xFIP with a 26.4% strikeout rate and just a 4.8% walk rate this year. Wheeler has a 2.24% home run rate on 5.2% barrels with a 36.6% hard-hit rate this season but was slightly better at limiting power and keeping runs in check last year at 2.14% home runs on 34.5% hard hits and a 2.82 ERA with a 3.06 xFIP. Wheeler costs $11,600/$10,800, he is projected lower than Scherzer but they are competitive options on this slate.
- Tommy Edman and Alec Burleson are capable mix-in options out of the first two spots in the projected Cardinals batting order. Both players provide a bit of individual potential with pop and speed at the plate but they are producing just a 93 and 94 WRC+ respectively. Both players correlate with the team’s star right-handed corner infielders, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado who have home run marks of just 4.90 and 5.44 against the typically stingy Wheeler. For $5,600/$3,600 and $5,400/$3,400 they are somewhat cheap for their potential and positioning. Willson Contreras has 13 home runs with a 118 WRC+ in 427 plate appearances as a strong catcher option. Nolan Gorman has crushed 24 home runs from the left side of the plate, the second baseman has cooled and been a bit of a roller coaster throughout the season but he has major power potential for $4,300/$3,200. Tyler O’Neill is another source of power, this time from the right side, he hit 34 home runs with 15 stolen bases two years ago. Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn check in late in the lineup with rookie potential, Walker has been productive with a 103 WRC+ and 11 homers in his 337 chances.
- Phillies bats are typically playable, they will be facing limited righty Dakota Hudson and they are carrying an appealing 5.13-run implied total in Vegas tonight. Hudson has a 3.95 ERA with a 4.48 xFIP and 17.2% strikeout rate this season and he has yielded a 3.23% home run rate on 8.8% barrels and 42.6% hard hits with 90 mph of exit velocity, putting him right on the danger line for home run potential. Hudson is cheap at $6,800/$7,900 but he slot in several spots below the core of value options in the middle today and he does not look like a great option.
- Kyle Schwarber has a 7.11 in the home run model, down from his significant perch last night but he is a major power threat against anyone. Schwarber has 35 long balls with a .262 ISO and a 14.5% barrel rate on the season. Trea Turner has hit 15 home runs and stolen 23 bases in a down season, he is affordable at a premium position. Bryce Harper is up to 12 home runs and a .173 ISO after a slow start for power, he has been very good this season with a 135 WRC+ in 410 chances. Nick Castellanos joins Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm in the heart of the lineup, all three players have been key contributors to the Phillies and they are all good options for MLB DFS at a range of positions. Castellanos has a 107 WRC+ and 21 home runs, Stott has 12 homers and 24 stolen bases, and Bohm has created runs nine percent better than average with 14 home runs and a very sturdy triple-slash. JT Realmuto is one of the top catchers in the game, he has 15 homers and 12 stolen bases with a .204 ISO and is rarely as pricey or popular as he should be. Brandon Marsh has eight home runs and seven steals with a .286/.373/.462 triple-slash as yet another good late-lineup option and Jake Cave is a mix-in part at the bottom of the batting order.
Play: Phillies bats/stacks, Zack Wheeler
Update Notes:
Chicago Cubs (-127/4.80) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+117/4.31)
- The Pirates have right-handed reliever Colin Selby opening the game ahead of Osvaldo Bido, another righty, neither pitcher has much appeal. Selby will not work more than an inning or two, and Bido has been limited at a 5.08 ERA and 4.89 xFIP with a 21.1% strikeout rate in 44.1 innings and costs $5,300/$6,000 against a strong Cubs lineup.
- Chicago bats are a priority on this slate. The team has a 4.80-run implied total on the board but they rank second by fantasy point projections, sixth by home run potential, and they sit among the best teams on the slate for points-per-dollar value. Mike Tauchman has a $4,000/$3,000 price in the outfield, he has gotten on base at a .361 clip and he has created runs 11% better than average yet he remains affordable in a dynamite correlation spot. Nico Hoerner has a $5,900/$3,600 price tag that still feels a bit high, he has stolen 33 bases but has middling power and a 100 WRC+ to sit exactly at league-average for run creation. Ian Happ has a .359 on-base percentage and 113 WRC+ with 15 home runs and 11 stolen bases in another multi-category value season. Cody Bellinger has been a star all season, he is excellent across the board for $6,400/$3,800, Dansby Swanson is a top-shelf shortstop option, he has 19 home runs this season with a 108 WRC+ and seems on his way to matching his 25 home runs from last year, and Seiya Suzuki has gotten up to 13 home runs and a 108 WRC+ in 440 opportunities. Jeimer Candelario has hit 18 home runs with a .220 ISO, he has eligibility at first and third base on DraftKings for $4,700 and is a third baseman for just $3,100 on the blue site. Christopher Morel and Yan Gomes round out the lineup, Gomes has sneaky catcher power and Morel may be the best overall power hitter on the Cubs for just $5,000/$3,300 with multi-position eligibility on both sites.
- The Pirates are facing Javier Assad who checks in for $6,300/$7,500 with a lower-middle projection on today’s slate. Assad is part of a limited bottom third of the pitching slate, he has value pricing but the ceiling does not look all that strong by comparison to options above him. The righty has an 18% strikeout rate with a 3.13 ERA and 4.67 xFIP and 10.2% walk rate this year, his 6.6% swinging-strike rate is not at all inspiring. Assad has worked 7.0, 6.0, and 5.1 innings in his last three starts but struck out just two, four, and four in those three outings while giving up runs and power, he is not a great value dart even against the lower-end Pirates.
- Pittsburgh has a 4.31-run implied total with a few interesting bats against Assad, but they rank at the bottom of the board overall on the stacks tools tonight. Pirates’ priority hitters would include Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, and Andrew McCutchen off the top of the lineup, and Jack Suwinski from wherever he hits. Hayes has nine home runs and nine stolen bases but just a 91 WRC+ despite his excellent hard-hit rate, Reynolds has a 109 WRC+, McCutchen has a 113, and Suwisnki has 21 long balls and a .235 ISO with a 107 WRC+ in a big power breakout. Joshua Palacios has been frisky with six home runs in 180 plate appearances, rookie catcher Endy Rodriguez looks like a strong option whenever he plays, he has two home runs and a 92 WRC+ overall but has made good contact for cheap pricing behind the plate. Ji-Hwan Bae, Alfonso Rivas, and Alika Williams round out the lineup with low-end parts.
Play: Cubs bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Cincinnati Reds (+110/4.63) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-119/4.98)
- Veteran righty Zach Davies is a $5,700/$6,000 option with a decent value-based projection in the middle of the overall pitching board against the young talented high-strikeout Reds. Davies has a 17.8% strikeout rate with a 10.4% walk rate this season, he has pitched to an awful 7.38 ERA but a 4.89 xFIP that is much better but still bad overall. The veteran has induced a limited 7.3% swinging-strike rate with a 25.6% CSW% but he has been OK at limiting power with a 2.70% home run rate coming on 7.5% barrels. Davies has been pitching very much like his output from the past two seasons, he is not a high-end pitcher but the Reds do check in with a 25.3% strikeout rate for the projected lineup. Davies is an extremely low-faith value dart, particularly at SP2.
- Reds bats should be played as a hedge position if drawing shares of Davies, they are the better side of the equation despite just a 4.63-run implied total in Vegas that puts them around the middle of the slate. Cincinnati’s lineup opens with TJ Friedl who has limited power but has managed 11 home runs and he has a decent on-base percentage with 24 stolen bases on the board and a 105 WRC+. Matt McLain is a premium shortstop option for $5,800/$3,700, Elly De La Cruz has a $6,200/$3,900 price tag at shortstop on DraftKings and with added third base eligibility on the blue site. De La Cruz has hit 11 home runs and stolen 21 bases this year, he has a 94 WRC+ but a .201 ISO and a 48% hard-hit rate to go with his massive 34.7% strikeout rate. Spencer Steer has third base and outfield eligibility and he swaps third for first base on the blue site. Steer has an 8.23 in our home run model with 18 homers and 11 steals this season in the heart of the lineup. Nick Martini, Noelvi Marte, and Tyler Stephenson are more of the mix-in level in Reds stacks late in the lineup, the preferred options at the bottom of the batting order are Will Benson and Christian Encarnacion-Strand who offer strong bats. Benson has a 134 WRC+ with eight homers and 14 steals in 243 chances and Encarnacion-Strand has four homers and was destroying AAA before his call-up.
- Arizona bats are facing opener Fernando Cruz and bulk reliever Ben Lively, neither of whom look like good options against the quality lineup. Lively will see the bulk of the innings, the righty has a 20.8% strikeout rate with a 5.20 ERA and 4.41 xFIP while allowing a 5.54% home run rate.
- Corbin Carroll has a 10.37 in our home run model, he stopped his recent slide and has 22 home runs on the season with a 132 WRC+ overall for $5,700/$3,800 in the outfield. Ketel Marte has 20 home runs and a .200 ISO as one of baseball’s top second basemen, he costs just $5,200/$3,400 as a discount option in a good spot in this matchup. Tommy Pham has a $3,800/$2,900 salary, he is also cheap in the heart of the Diamondbacks lineup in a premium spot. Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have strong power bats and very low strikeout rates, they are underpriced at $5,100/$3,700 and $4,200/$3,000 on this slate. The Diamondbacks’ top end is cheap for its talent in the excellent matchup, the team ranks second on the board by points-per-dollar on both sites and fifth overall for fantasy points tonight. Alek Thomas, Jace Peterson, Jose Herrera, and Geraldo Perdomo are more limited options later in the lineup. Thomas has a bit of pop with a little speed on the bases if he manages to reach first, Peterson has a little left-handed power at the plate, Herrera is a low-end backup catcher, and Perdomo is the top priority among the late-lineup hitters with multi-position eligibility, a touch of power, and good speed with decent on-base skills.
Play: Diamondbacks bats/stacks, Reds bats/stacks, Zach Davies value darts
Update Notes:
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