The seven-game MLB DFS main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel includes a surprising number of quality pitching options, a game in Cincinnati’s Coors Lite stadium, and several premium options for power and run creation against low-end pitching, in other words, a bit of something for everyone. The slate is small enough that covering a broad range of potential outcomes is both easy and worthwhile, with an eye toward creating more unique combinations than the field as usual. There are several spots with twists, most interestingly the matchup in the late game that will have a capable veteran left-hander coming in to relieve a high-end opener who pitches right-handed. The short slate offers at least eight legitimately good options on the mound at a variety of prices, with several lower-end dart throw options, including the bulk relief situation in San Francisco for the bold. A handful of excellent teams in good matchups against lousy pitchers should create several spots of concentrated popularity on a slate that has any number of angles of approach. Taking positions against the field while casting a wide net is the way one wants to view ownership for MLB DFS action, individual ownership and even team stack popularity in the absence of context is an over-discussed and confused way to view popularity projections.
Don’t miss our new Stack Suggestions feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
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Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 6/19/23
Chicago Cubs (-119/4.72) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+110/4.38)
Note: there are minor weather concerns in this game, keep an eye on the news, updates may or may not appear in this space.
The first game on board sees the Cubs in Pittsburgh taking on Osvaldo Bido, a righty who will be making the second start of his MLB career. Bido faced 19 Cubs hitters over four innings, walking three and striking out a surprising six while allowing a lone run on four hits. Bido is a 27-year-old non-prospect pitcher who worked in the low-to-mid 20% strikeout range throughout the minors. There is some appeal in a matchup against Chicago, but the team is good with run creation and drawing walks, and Bido’s depth of start is in question. At $7,300 he seems like a bit of a stretch on FanDuel with the lack of a likely shot at a quality start, for $5,600 on DraftKings there is a bit more upside. The Cubs lineup is showing strong projections and a fair amount of home run potential in our model, they would be the preferred side of the matchup. Chicago’s lineup opens with Mike Tauchman, who has done well over 99 plate appearances this season. The replacement-level outfielder is slashing .282/.408/.359 with a 120 WRC+ and hit his first home run of the season over the weekend. Tauchman remains a cheap option for correlated scoring as long as he continues to hit leadoff and get on base. Nico Hoerner has four home runs and 16 stolen bases but has created runs just two percent below average over his 286 plate appearances. Hoerner’s price has begun to drop on both sites, he checks in at $5,100/$3,400 at second base. Seiya Suzuki has a 51.7% hard-hit rate and 10.2% barrel rate which translate to six home runs and a .156 ISO, which is misaligned. Given the steady contact profile, Suzuki should hit for more power than he does. He has been very good at getting on base and creating runs, however, with a .263/.353/.420 triple-slash and a 113 WRC+ in 235 plate appearances. Ian Happ is even better at reaching first base, he has an excellent .387 on-base percentage with five home runs and five steals but has not hit for as much power as in years past. Happ hit 17 home runs in 641 plate appearances last year and had 25 in 535 tries the season before. Dansby Swanson is a bargain at $4,800/$2,800. The shortstop has been excellent throughout his career with multiple seasons of more than 20 home runs and strong stolen base totals. Swanson is slashing .264/.352/.403 with a 110 WRC+ and he has hit seven home runs. Like his teammates, there has been a bit of a dip in power for Swanson this season, but his ability is not in question. The Cubs do finally draw power in the form of Cody Bellinger, who returned to the lineup a few days ago after a long injury stretch. Bellinger has seven home runs and a .214 ISO in 174 plate appearances in a nice turnaround, the bulk of which came prior to the injury. Christopher Morel has 13 home runs to lead the projected Cubs lineup, which is also true of his .409 ISO and 174 WRC+ in 120 plate appearances, he has been having an outrageous season since his return. Nick Madrigal and Tucker Barnhart are movable parts to round out the bottom of the lineup, they have WRC+ marks of 69 and 31 in 128 and 87 plate appearances respectively.
The hometown Pirates will be facing a veteran lefty, Drew Smyly is on the bump for Chicago in what should be an interesting matchup. Smyly has a 3.59 ERA and 4.65 xFIP in 77.2 innings and 14 starts this season while striking out 20.1. The southpaw has walked just 6.5% of opposing hitters but has a limited 9.6% swinging-strike rate and 26.8% CSW%. His 6.4% barrel rate and 32.2% hard hits on just 86.9 mph exit velocity should not be ignored. At $6,500/$8,000, Smyly is looking like a decent value option despite facing a Pirates lineup that ranks 11th in baseball with a 108 WRC+ collectively against left-handed pitching. The Pirates strike out at 20.4% and have a .151 ISO in the split as a unit, this is a both-sided situation but the pitcher is at excellent value prices on both sites while the Pirates are more of an also-ran with a 4.38-run implied total. Veteran Andrew McCutchen has not had a great few weeks after a hot start, he is sitting at .262/.379/.424 with a 122 WRC+ over 256 opportunities in which he has delivered nine home runs and seven stolen bases, the right-handed outfielder is a good option when starting a Pirates stack at just $4,400/$3,100. Bryan Reynolds has eight home runs and eight stolen bases with a 120 WRC+, the team’s best player costs $4,800/$3,500 in the outfield tonight. Connor Joe hits lefties very well, after a hot first few weeks of his season, Joe now sits at .242/.330/.444 but still has a .202 ISO with six home runs on the board and a 111 WRC+. Carlos Santana also has six home runs, the switch-hitting veteran is not what he once was at the plate, he has a 5.97 in our home run model tonight. Santana can be included in Pirates stacks but he is not particularly appealing in a one-off role and is a lower priority than some of his teammates. Ke’Bryan Hayes has a .141 ISO despite a 47.4% hard-hit rate. The frustrating third baseman has four home runs in his 278 plate appearances and has created runs 14% better than average, but someone who puts the ball in play as frequently as he does with as much premium contact simply should be a better hitter. Hayes is an option at $3,800/$3,000. Rodolfo Castro is outrageously good against left-handed pitching over the course of his career, but naturally failed everyone who included him aggressively against a lefty over the weekend. Castro is very much in play at $3,400/$2,400 with eligibility at second base and shortstop on both sites. Rookie Henry Davis is making his MLB debut for the Pirates behind the plate tonight. Davis was the first overall selection of the 2021 draft, he is a highly regarded prospect and is generally ranked in the overall top 50. Davis hit 10 home runs and stole seven bases in 187 plate appearances in AA to start this season then spent 45 plate appearances in AAA before his promotion. In the higher level, the prospect catcher slashed .286/.432/.514 and hit a home run with two stolen bases. Davis has significant wheels for a catcher along with a ton of raw power, the catcher is a high-priority item at the dead minimum price on DraftKings when rostering Pirates stacks and he should be utilized in the situation at $2,500 on FanDuel as well. There is not a major first base sacrifice in skipping Santana and rostering Davis with three other position players on the blue site. Mark Mathias and Austin Hedges round out the projected lineup, which puts a second catcher in play for DraftKings, neither is a strong MLB DFS option.
Play: Cubs bats/stacks, Pirates bats/stacks, Drew Smyly mid-level value shares in smaller portions
Update Notes:
Colorado Rockies (+144/4.50) @ Cincinnati Reds (-157/5.62)
Note: there are moderate weather concerns in this game, keep an eye on the news, updates may or may not appear in this space.
The Rockies and Reds are a pair of baseball teams pulling in the highest overall total of the day, a lot of which has to do with the presence of two lousy lefties on the mound for their respective teams. The other primary factor is the ballpark, the conditions in Cincinnati play highly in favor of hitting and our model is showing extreme returns on that side of this game with both pitchers landing as extreme longshot options even at $5,100/$6,100 for Colorado’s Austin Gomber and $5,500/$7,000 for Cincinnati’s Brandon Williamson. Neither of the southpaws registers as a relevant play, but Gomber is the higher projected and more experienced of the two. He has a 14.5% strikeout rate with a 7.29 ERA and 5.11 xFIP while allowing a 5.28% home run rate on 10% barrels and 45.5% hard hits this year. Williamson has made six starts and thrown 31.2 innings, he has a 5.40 ERA and 5.51 xFIP with a 5.07% home run rate on 13.7% barrels and 50% hard hits. So, which of these pitchers would you like to discuss further?
Now that that’s out of the way, the Colorado bats are shining through, somehow, as our third-highest projected team in the average top-to-bottom for the projected lineup. This is despite Colorado coming into this contest as by far baseball’s worst run-creation team against left-handed pitching this season. With pricing looking like it was set more with that fact in mind than the consideration that this is a very bad left-handed pitcher in a terrible park for pitching, the Rockies are also pushing a ton of value up the board in this matchup. Jurickson Profar is not a good player at this point in his career. The switch-hitting outfielder has five home runs and a 75 WRC+ over 290 plate appearances. For $3,700/$2,800, Profar is a playable piece in an oddball stack of a bad team, but he is not one of our preferred options for any reason other than his spot in the batting order, which is admittedly important. Randal Grichuk slots in second, he has one home run with a 101 WRC+ over 166 plate appearances since his return. Grichuk has been hitting for average and getting on base but it has not been kind to his run-creation mark, a return to his power-hitting form would be preferred but the outfielder is a good play when going to stacks of Rockies. The power on this team starts with Ryan McMahon, who is worse against left-handed pitching in most situations. McMahon has 12 home runs and a .239 ISO with a 121 WRC+ overall this season, but only two of the long balls came against lefties and his ISO is .169 in the split. Still, against this lefty in this ballpark? There is an upside for McMahon at $4,500/$3,300 when rostering the Rockies. Elias Diaz is a productive catcher who costs $4,300/$2,800, he has seven home runs and a 102 WRC+ in 247 opportunities. Jorge Alfaro is a free-swinging former top prospect who has made 11 entirely unproductive trips to the plate this year. Alfaro has struck out in five of those chances and has literally done nothing with the others at .000/.000/.000 with a .000 ISO and -100 WRC+, but there is right-handed power in play with Alfaro who ranks at a 9.08 in our home run model if he hits in this spot. Nolan Jones is slashing .320/.400/.560 with a 144 WRC+ and a .240 ISO with four home runs and four steals in 85 plate appearances. The high-end rookie has hit lefties as well as righties in a small sample so far, he has a good shot to continue the trend at just $4,100/$3,400. Elehuris Montero is another high-end rookie, he is joined by fellow prospects Coco Montes and Brenton Doyle at the bottom of the lineup. Montero has not been good this season in 88 plate appearances, he has a WRC+ of just 16 and is slashing .179/.216/.274 with one home run and no sign of premium contact, but he is very cheap with respected prospect power. Montes is a mix-in option, Doyle is perhaps a bit more. In 143 plate appearances, Doyle has demonstrated decent power and good speed with four home runs and 10 steals, for $3,300/$2,700 he is a playable wraparound but he needs to get on base better than his current .273 clip. Meanwhile, the Reds are carrying the day’s highest implied team totals against Gomber, they are going to be highly popular in this situation and a ton of attention will fall to their premium bats, including flashy rookie Elly De La Cruz. Leadoff man Kevin Newman is neither flashy nor a rookie, the veteran infielder has an 86 WRC+ over 194 plate appearances with two homers and five stolen bases. Matt McLain is a very good rookie who is slashing .324/.374/.507 with three home runs and three stolen bases in just 147 plate appearances, and he is still affordable on DraftKings at $4,700 in a great spot. The $3,800 on FanDuel is a fair price but it is not a bargain for the player, the Reds are showing less overall in points-per-dollar value rankings than Colorado. Jonathan India has 10 home runs and 12 stolen bases and has created runs 12% better than average in 320 plate appearances this year. De La Cruz has made 50 plate appearances and has struck out at a 34% clip but also has walked 12% of the time. In between, he hit one home run and he adds six stolen bases while creating runs 11% better than average in the tiny sample. Spencer Steer and Tyler Stephenson are playable right-handed hitters in the later part of the lineup. Steer is having a very good season at .277/.361/.477 with a 121 WRC+ and 10 home runs, Stephenson less so but he is a value-priced catcher who will probably be very popular tonight. the backstop has five home runs and an 84 WRC+ with a .115 ISO, there are better catcher options if he has runaway popularity, including on the other side of this game and in Pittsburgh. Nick Senzel, Stuart Fairchild, and Luke Maile round out the lineup as low-end plays.
Play: Rockies bats/stacks, and Reds bats/stacks, both are strong options and Cincinnati is likely to be far more popular
Update Notes:
Boston Red Sox (+118/3.82) @ Minnesota Twins (-127/4.26)
The Red Sox are pushing a very strong projection in the direction of Twins starter Pablo Lopez who has been mostly good in his 14 starts and 84.1 innings. Lopez has a 4.27 ERA but a 3.53 xFIP and an excellent 29.2% strikeout rate with a 6.6% walk rate, both of which are improvements over his past few seasons. The righty raved about the Twins’ organizational approach to pitching mechanics during the offseason and the results are showing in his first year in Minnesota. Lopez tops our pitching board at $9,100/$9,600 against the top-heavy Red Sox. Boston’s lineup can be played in small doses, they are showing steady power through the heart of the lineup and there are good options up top, but they are not a high-priority stack with just a 3.82-run implied team total. Alex Verdugo strikes out 12.2% of the time and gets on base at a .373 clip while creating runs 27% better than average at a fair price atop the lineup. Justin Turner has 10 home runs on the season after a big weekend, he has a 118 WRC+ for just $3,900/$3,200. Rafael Devers is the team’s left-handed hitting star, his power has been in place with 17 home runs this season, but his triple-slash and run-creation marks are somewhat down. Right-handed masher Adam Duvall has a 15.9% barrel rate and four home runs in 66 plate appearances, he is at a 15.08 in our home run model in the dangerous stretch of the lineup. Masataka Yoshida represents the end of that stretch, the left-handed outfielder is priced at $5,500/$3,400 which is fair considering his team-leading 137 WRC+ and a strong triple-slash. Christian Arroyo is a mix-and-match positional play at a cheap price, the veteran has a 68 WRC+ in 116 opportunities. Triston Casas has a few positive attributes, including his 13.3% barrel rate, but he only has seven home runs and is slashing .210/.333/.379 with a .169 ISO. Reese McGuire and Pablo Reyes round out the projected lineup.
The Twins are facing lefty James Paxton, who was originally slated to face the Yankees on Saturday but was rained out and given additional rest afterward. Paxton has made six starts and has a 33.1% strikeout rate with a 3.09 ERA and 3.10 xFIP in the sample. The veteran lefty came roaring back to life after not pitching significant innings since 2019, he has made just one lousy start, his third of the season against the Angels. In that outing, Paxton lasted just 3.0 innings while yielding five runs on two home runs and striking out five while walking three. The southpaw has pitched into the sixth inning or beyond three times in six starts, booking a quality start in each. Paxton is facing a Twins team that strikes out aggressively, the projected lineup has an aggregate strikeout rate of 27.3% overall this year, and there is a very high ceiling on Paxton’s MLB DFS score tonight, he is a strong buy at $9,300/$10,200. Byron Buxton is back for Minnesota, he has 10 home runs and a .210 ISO and is projected to leadoff for $5,600/$3,200. Donovan Solano costs just $2,600 at first base on either site, he is not an ideal positional option but he is cheap and would be in a great correlated scoring position if he hits between Buston and Carlos Correa. Despite the shortstop’s struggles, there is still value in rostering Correa, who is also inexpensive at $4,700/$3,200. Even with his struggles, Correa has hit nine home runs and has a .196 ISO. Kyle Farmer and Royce Lewis are playable value parts, Farmer is underrated overall, he has eligibility at second base or shortstop on both sites for $2,800/$2,500 and has a good bat for MLB DFS. In 2022, Farmer hit 14 home runs and stole four bases in 583 plate appearances, and he hit 16 home runs in 529 tries in 2021. Lewis is cheap at $3,700/$3,000, Lewis has a pair of home runs and a 97 WRC+ in his 59 plate appearances this year. Willi Castro, Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers, and Max Kepler are a strong way to close out a lineup, there are plenty of strikeouts for Lopez but that is a group of three power hitters and one capable hit-and-speed option. Castro has 13 stolen bases in just 162 plate appearances and actually sits second in the group with five home runs. Kirilloff has four homers in 142 opportunities, Jeffers has three in 124 and fills catcher for a cheap price, and Kepler has rocked seven long balls in 165 plate appearances but also sits at just a .176 ISO and 73 WRC+.
Play: Pablo Lopez, James Paxton, only minor shares of either stack in a hedge position
Update Notes: the Twins lineup opens with Solano-Edouard Julien-Buxton-Correa-Kirilloff-Castro-Farmer-Joey Gallo-Vazquez. Julien and Gallo are both upgrades, Julien is a highly regarded prospect with a 131 WRC+ in his first 100 MLB plate appearances and Gallo has the Bunyanesque power of 10 men at the plate… with the strikeouts of 40.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+109/3.42) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-118/3.66)
The better-than-expected Diamondbacks are facing a tough matchup and have been relegated to just a 3.42-run implied total on the board in Vegas against Corbin Burnes, who has been steadily gaining steam in a return to form over his last four starts and truly has not been as bad as rumored in most of his outings this season. Burnes has a 24.3% strikeout rate with a 12.4% swinging-strike rate and 30.2% CSW% that suggest a higher rate will be in that box in a few weeks. Burnes struck out eight Giants, seven Reds, nine Orioles, and eight Twins in 27 innings while allowing a total of seven earned runs in his last four starts. With a price tag of $10,000/$10,600 against a stout Arizona lineup, it will be interesting to see where Burnes’ popularity falls tonight but we have to expect fairly high public ownership. Burnes projects as our number two overall starter today. Geraldo Perdomo is slated in the leadoff role for Arizona, after a hot start he has cooled badly, his .293/.396/.467 with a 136 WRC+ is still good but it looked a lot better a couple of weeks ago. Ketel Marte is a better starting point in Arizona stacks, but Perdomo is a good value option if he is leading off. Marte has 10 home runs and a 129 WRC+ with a .198 ISO, he is a top-notch second baseman for just $4,700/$3,700, his DraftKings price is incorrect, he should be more expensive. Corbin Carroll is a star, he has 15 home runs and 19 stolen bases and costs $5,300/$4,200, the outfielder should be in most stacks of Diamondbacks hitters tonight. Christian Walker has 15 homers at first base, he hit 36 last year and has come around well after a slow start. For just $4,300/$3,500 Walker is a value option despite the tough matchup for power. Walker is not a free-swinging power hitter, his 17.7% strikeout rate this year is outstanding for someone who drives the ball as well as he does. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. also strikes out at below at 20% clip on the season, Burnes will be challenged by this lineup. Gurriel is a good buy in Diamondbacks stacks, he has a .282/.332/.513 triple-slash with 11 home runs and a .231 ISO while creating runs 25% better than average this season. Pavin Smith has seven home runs but a lowly triple-slash and just an 87 WRC+, but he is very cheap, does not strike out much, and hits the ball squarely with regularity. Josh Rojas, Carson Kelly, and Jake McCarthy are decent mix-ins late in the lineup. Kelly is a capable catcher, Rojas has a bit of pop and decent speed at a cheap price but is not an ideal third baseman overall, and McCarthy has blazing speed and mid-range power but has scuffled when it comes to getting on base and creating runs.
The Brewers have the better side of this matchup, but not by much, they are also carrying a run total well below 4.0 in their matchup against solid righty Merrill Kelly who projects in the middle of the board for us today. Kelly has a 26.9% strikeout rate and has walked too many at 10.3% but he has been very good at punching his way out of trouble with a 12.7% swinging-strike rate and 28.2% CSW% and a 2.72% home run rate despite 9.2% barrels. Kelly costs $9,600/$10,500, he is playable and should be rostered in a handful of lineups at least. If Kelly goes under-owned by the field it is a spot on which one can push a few additional chips to get ahead of the curve, the righty is good enough to pick apart a Brewers lineup that has a 24.6% average strikeout rate. Christian Yelich is all the way up to an 11.4% barrel rate with his always-good 54.6% hard-hit rate. While that is yet to fully translate into home run power, there have to be more long balls coming. Yelich has nine on the season, he hit just 14 last year so we are already seeing an upswing, but we expect more beyond this level if his sturdy contact continues. The outfielder costs just $5,100/$3,500 which is too cheap for his talent, but this is not a great spot for stacking. Jesse Winker has been bad in 135 plate appearances to start his Brewers career and he was fairly lousy in Seattle last year after a breakout in 2021 with the Reds. Winker costs $2,700/$2,200 and could be a useful value outfielder if he remembers how to hit for a night. Willy Adames has a 7.57 in our home run model, sitting second behind Rowdy Tellez’s 9.92 which leads the team. Adames is a cheap power-hitting shortstop for $4,500/$2,900, but he is not flawless. Tellez has 12 home runs and a .200 ISO but has dipped to just a 94 WRC+ this season. William Contreras has eight home runs and a 10.7% barrel rate with a 49.3% hard-hit rate, he and Yelich should end the season with strong home run totals and good ISOs given all their premium contact. Owen Miller and Brian Anderson are playable parts on the right side of the plate, they have WRC+ marks of 104 and 97 in 196 and 268 plate appearances respectively. Luis Urias is an interesting power hitter in the infield for $3,500/$2,400, particularly with multi-position eligibility on both sites. Joey Wiemer has 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases as a sneaky late-lineup play.
Play: Corbin Burnes, Merrill Kelly, small shares of Brewers bats/stacks and Diamondbacks bats/stacks are just OK – significantly lower priority on bats than pitchers
Update Notes:
Texas Rangers (-126/5.05) @ Chicago White Sox (106/4.67)
The Rangers are drawing the second-highest implied team total on the slate against Jesse Scholtens who is going to work a couple of innings to open the game. Scholtens has worked a hybrid role between the Majors and AAA this season, he has seven appearances with one start in the Show and has not gone more than five innings. The reliever had outings of 5.0, 4.2, and 4.0 innings in May but he pitched an inning on the 16th and another on the 17th after his promotion back to the big club, Update: the Rangers will now be facing lefty Tanner Banks to open the game, which has very little impact on their projections overall. Banks threw 2.2 innings three days ago, he probably should not be expected for more than an inning or two and the lefty has an average 22.7% strikeout rate with a 4.10 xFIP in 11.1 innings of relief work this year. There should still be no expectation of quality on the mound for Chicago tonight, Texas bats are in a fire-at-will situation. Marcus Semien is one of baseball’s best second basemen, he has 10 home runs and a .188 ISO with a 122 WRC+ starring at the top of the lineup for the Rangers. Semien’s double-play partner is even better, Corey Seager is slashing .363/.420/.656 with a 192 WRC+ and .294 ISO in 181 plate appearances and he also has 10 home runs. Nathaniel Lowe has a 10.41 rating in our home run model and is our overall home run pick for today at just $4,100/$3,200. Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung check in to make it five straight players in this lineup with better than the magic number of 10.0 in the home run model tonight. Garcia has 15 long balls and Jung has 14 on the season and they both sit well above average for run creation at 123 and 129 WRC+. Jonah Heim has nine homers as a cheap and typically under-owned catcher, Robbie Grossman is a capable mix-and-match piece in the outfield with a minor amount of pop, he has seven home runs but a .144 ISO this year, and Ezequiel Duran has turned himself into a very good player who has a 139 WRC+ and .200 ISO in 188 opportunities. Leody Taveras has a 136 WRC+ with eight home runs and seven stolen bases but costs just $3,100 on both sites and is a functional wraparound play.
The hometown White Sox are facing Andrew Heaney, which pushes a good projection to Heaney – who has a 24.4% strikeout rate and 4.05 ERA with a 4.50 xFIP this season – but also a fair amount of power to the White Sox bats. Heaney is a strong strikeout pitcher in most outings but he makes big loud mistakes and has a 3.48% home run rate on 9.4% barrels. Last season, the southpaw struck out a whopping 35.5% in 14 starts but allowed a 4.52% home run rate with a 91.2 mph exit velocity on 47.7% hard hits and 11% barrels, his premium contact allowed has been stronger this season. Heaney has a massive upside at $7,500/$8,800, those prices are simply incorrect for a starter who can rack up strikeouts as Heaney does on a good day. The White Sox lineup opens with Zach Remillard who costs $2,300/$2,000 at first or third base on DraftKings and with just third base eligibility on the blue site. Remillard is a 29-year-old quad-A type non-prospect he had five home runs and 13 stolen bases in 250 AAA plate appearances this season. At his prices, he is naturally an option if he leads off when stacking White Sox, but expectations should be properly set for the limited player. Andrew Vaughn is affordable at $3,000 on both sites. The first baseman has a 9.61 in our home run model and has hit nine this season while creating runs five percent ahead of the curve. Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez are the team’s stars, Robert has 17 home runs and Jimenez has hit eight despite missing a fair amount of time. They slot in at 14.81 and 12.61 in our home run model, and Jake Burger follows them with a 14.66, but all three hitters also strike out at aggressive rates, which could be a boost to Heaney on the right night in the both-sided situation. Andrew Benintendi costs $2,800/$2,900, he hit his first home run of the year over the weekend but has not been good overall. Benintendi is relied upon for on-base percentage and run creation, he has provided the former with a .360 on-base percentage but his WRC+ is just 95 in 276 plate appearances. Yasmani Grandal, Clint Frazier, and Elvis Andrus round out the lineup, Grandal and Frazier are usable options.
Play: Rangers bats/stacks aggressively, Andrew Heaney, small portions of White Sox prime cuts
Update Notes: the White Sox changed their opener, details included above.
New York Mets (+107/3.68) @ Houston Astros (-116/3.90)
With righty Max Scherzer on the mound for the visiting Mets, one might not expect that rookie Hunter Brown would be the starter whose team is favored in this contest, but with Scherzer not quite on form and Brown pitching extremely well, that is not the case. Both teams are kept in check by the talent on the mound, the Mets come in with an implied team total of just 3.68 and the Astros are not far ahead at 3.90. Brown has thrown 75.1 innings in 13 games, pitching to a 3.35 ERA and 3.17 xFIP with a 27.1% strikeout rate and an excellent 1.96% home run rate in his first full season. The righty has been outstanding at limiting home runs at just 1.96% despite 44% hard hits and a 90.3 mph exit velocity. Brown has been very good at cutting launch angle so far in his career, which is our critical factor in identifying starters who take the bats out of power hitter’s hands regularly. Last year Brown allowed just a 2.9-degree launch angle in his two starts and 20.1 innings, this season that mark sits at just 3.6 degrees over a much larger sample. The talented rookie right-hander costs $10,200/$9,800, he is too cheap on the FanDuel slate and is worthwhile on both sites with a sturdy projection as our fifth-ranked overall starter. The Mets are only of moderate appeal in this matchup, as an example of Brown’s limitations on power, Pete Alonso is carrying just a 6.85 in our home run model tonight, which puts him roughly 2.5 points above his next-highest ranked teammate. Brandon Nimmo is the leadoff hitter for the Mets, he is terrific at getting on base and has individual upside in the outfield as well. Nimmo has seven home runs and a 47.5% hard-hit rate with a .380 on-base percentage and 133 WRC+ in 314 plate appearances. Starling Marte has worked his way back to the second spot in the lineup, he has improved his output via the hit tool and is up to 19 stolen bases, but he still lands at just an 84 WRC+. Francisco Lindor has hit 13 home runs and stolen seven bases but has scuffled along at just a 99 WRC+. Alonso hits cleanup for just $5,200/$3,800, the star first baseman got back from his injury quickly, he has 22 home runs and a massive .309 ISO on the season and is always an option. Jeff McNeil is slashing .272/.353/.346 with a 103 WRC+ and needs help from teammates to make value most nights. Francisco Alvarez is becoming a star catcher this season, he has hit a dozen home runs in just 167 plate appearances and he has created runs 14% better than average in his rookie year. Brett Baty is another premium rookie in the projected lineup, he has four home runs and a 91 WRC+ so far this year. Tommy Pham is a good veteran option for just $2,900/$2,700. The outfielder has a 120 WRC+ in 153 plate appearances with seven home runs and six stolen bases on the year. Luis Guillorme is a defense-only infielder to close the lineup.
The combination of Scherzer’s name and a price tag of just $8,800/$9,000 will always have our attention, but the starter has truly been all over the map this season. Going back four starts, Scherzer struck out eight Rockies in Coors Field while allowing just six hits including a solo home run in seven innings, then followed up by striking out nine Phillies, again allowing just one earned run, this time on five hits again going seven innings. In the next game, Scherzer allowed five earned runs including a home run and a whopping 11 hits in just 5.2 innings, but he also struck out 10 and it was a game against Atlanta in their home park. Scherzer’s most recent outing lacks that excuse. Against the Judgeless Yankees, Scherzer allowed six earned runs on seven hits including two home runs in just 3.1 innings while striking out only two. And yet, we’re happy to take the discount and hope for a pitching performance more along the lines of the game in Coors Field, yeah we hear it too, that’s a really strange sentence. Of course, with Scherzer’s struggles, the Astros are also in play. Houston’s lineup is still lacking a significant presence with the absence of Yordan Alvarez but there is plenty of talent throughout. Mauricio Dubon has a 95 WRC+ on the season but has provided upside in spurts and costs just $3,600/$2,900 in the infield. Jose Altuve is a far better option, the star second baseman costs $4,800/$4,100, one of those prices is correct and the other is $4,800. Altuve is a premium option at his position, he has three home runs and four steals since returning to the lineup just 92 plate appearances ago, and he has created runs 37% better than average so far. Kyle Tucker has nine home runs and 13 stolen bases and is hopefully getting moving on increased production after a downturn. The excellent outfielder is cheap at $5,000/$3,400 compared to where we typically find him. Tucker has still struck out in just 13% of his plate appearances and has a 47.5% hard-hit rate with a 124 WRC+, some people’s struggles can still look good compared to the average. Alex Bregman has a 105 WRC+ and has struck out in just 12.3% of his plate appearances this season. The third baseman has walked at an identical clip and gets on base at a .339 rate. Bregman has not been as good as in previous years, but he does have nine home runs along with his .241/.339/.387 triple-slash. Jose Abreu is slashing .227/282/.312 with a .086 ISO and a 65 WRC+, he has improved but his struggles are still on the ugly side. Abreu comes very cheap at $3,200/$2,800, he has indisputably been better in recent weeks and could be worth a few shares, but the matchup is a bad one. Jeremy Pena is sitting at a WRC+ mark of just 96 after 285 plate appearances this year, he was only at 102 over 558 opportunities last year, so the downturn is not massive, it could just be that Pena is not quite as good as people assumed he would become, or he is still a growing young player having a more challenging second year. The shortstop has hit eight home runs and stolen seven bases, he can provide MLB DFS scoring value at $4,400/$3,000. Yainer Diaz, Jake Meyers, and Martin Maldonado close out the lineup. Diaz is a catcher or first baseman on DraftKings, which is advantageous for the .274/.289/.491 hitter who has five home runs and a .217 ISO with a 108 WRC+ over 114 plate appearances. Diaz is a catcher on FanDuel, he costs $2,900/$2,500 and can be played on either site when rostering Astros. Meyers and Maldonado are mix-and-match options at the bottom of the lineup.
Play: Hunter Brown, Max Scherzer, only minor shares of Mets or Astros as a hedge/contrarian option with decent lineups in bad spots on either side.
Update Notes:
San Diego Padres (-110/4.36) @ San Francisco Giants (+102/4.23)
The nightcap between the Padres and Giants comes live from the Bay Area at 9:45 ET, which is 95 minutes after the start of the closest games on the slate. With all of the other games ending as it will begin, this game could have an interesting impact on the slate with significant options that are likely to provide slate-relevant, if not winning, scores. The visiting Padres are flashing power and run creation upside in their matchup against both opener Ryan Walker and bulk relief Sean Manaea. Walker is a righty who has thrown 14.2 innings with a 25% strikeout rate and 3.3% walk rate while allowing no home runs and just a 19% hard-hit rate with no barrels allowed. Walker has a 1.23 ERA and 2.71 xFIP and has been excellent in the small sample. This will be the first time that Walker has been deployed in an opening role and it will be interesting to see how long the team leaves him in the game. The effective reliever has thrown multiple innings out of the bullpen several times this season, including a high of three innings against the Cubs on June 11th. Walker could take the top off of the Padres lineup over two before handing off to Manaea but with no guarantees, it is most definitely a risk to use him as an SP2 for $4,000 on DraftKings. Walker is not on the board on FanDuel at $5,500. The righty was pushing a strong power projection in favor of the top stars in the Padres lineup and the entire team was projecting fairly well despite his production in the small sample. The Padres also look good against Manaea when we let him step into the model for a handful of innings. The southpaw has a 28.8% strikeout rate over 49.1 innings including six starts and several bulk relief appearances. Since retreating to the bullpen, Manaea has increased his strikeout rate from 25.5% in the six starts and 22.2 innings to 32.1% in 26.2 innings. The veteran starter’s ERA has dropped from 7.54 as a starter in the tiny sample to 4.39 and his xFIP dropped from 4.94 to 3.15 with walks halving to 6.4%. Manaea probably would have turned things around somewhat as a full starter, but he seems to benefit a bit from this role and he costs just $5,700 on DraftKings. In a better matchup that would put Manaea on the board as an SP2 with somewhat low expectations of success, but with the Padres in town and the question of a potential second or even third inning for Walker it is a bit more shaky than it may appear. Without an upside for a quality start, Manaea would need a good night to pay off a $7,600 FanDuel salary and several starters would need to fail at higher prices. The first of two Jrs. in leadoff roles in this game, Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of the very best players in all of baseball. The outfielder is slashing .286/.355/.557 with a .271 ISO, a 149 WRC+, 14 home runs, and 12 stolen bases in just 235 plate appearances while playing outrageously good defense in the outfield. Tatis has a 10.1% barrel rate and 46.7% hard-hit rate and strikes out at just an 18.3% clip, he is correctly priced at $6,300/$4,600 and retains shortstop eligibility on FanDuel. Juan Soto costs $5,800/$3,500, the elite outfielder has a .408 on-base percentage with a .207 ISO and 142 WRC+ and he has hit 11 home runs on a 12.2% barrel rate and a massive 58.9% hard-hit rate. Soto should have a better statistical line on the surface given all the quality he brings to the plate, he is underpriced and belongs in a large portion of any Padres stacks. Manny Machado is downright cheap at $5,000/$3,200. The third baseman has a .249/.291/.401 triple-slash with a .152 ISO and just a 90 WRC+ over 234 plate appearances but we know he is far better than that over an extended sample and we do not think he is near close to done. Machado is a bargain in Padres’ stacks that is important to help pay for his pricier teammates. Gary Sanchez has six home runs and a .308 ISO in 70 plate appearances, the catcher remains cheap at $4,000/$3,100, there is no faith in the industry but we have always believed in Sanchez’s bat. The catcher has never had a bad contact profile and has provided significant power even in down years when his strikeouts overcome his productivity. For DFS purposes he is nearly ideal as a hitter who fills the catcher position. Xander Bogaerts is a $4,900/$3,000 shortstop who has underperformed over the past six weeks after a good start. Bogaerts is another player with a long track record of star-caliber performance, we are happy to take him at a discount as well. Nelson Cruz hit his fifth home run of the season over the weekend, he has a .184 ISO and will face a lefty at least once in this game at just $2,500 on either site. Jake Cronenworth, Ha-Seong Kim, and Trent Grisham are mix-and-match options from late in the lineup.
The Giants draw veteran Michael Wacha who has made 13 mostly excellent starts this season. Wacha has a 2.89 ERA and 4.41 xFIP, the truth is probably closer to the expected FIP number, FIP is a more honest accounting of a pitcher’s productivity and we allow for what he should be doing, but Wacha has been undeniably productive. The righty has a 23.2% strikeout rate with an 11.1% swinging-strike rate and 27.6% CSW% and he has kept power very much in check. Wacha has allowed just a 2.01% home run rate on 87.5 mph of exit velocity and a 7.8% barrel rate despite an average launch angle of 20.4 degrees. Wacha is a flyball pitcher who does not make many mistakes and knows how to keep the ball in the park, but the Giants are a hard-hitting bunch with several sturdy left-handed hitters who would like a crack at that reputation. Both sides of this matchup are in play, The Giants’ 4.23-run implied total is not outstanding, but they are showing a few good marks for home run potential and run creation upside. LaMonte Wade Jr. is a fantastic leadoff hitter against righties. The first baseman costs $4,500/$3,200 which is cheap for a player who has created runs 48% above average in 269 plate appearances this year. Wade has a .416 on-base percentage that drives that production, his 17.5% walk rate, and 18.2% strikeout rate mean he is constantly putting the ball in play or reaching first base, but he also provides power upside with nine home runs this year. Wade is a great buy when building Giants stacks. Joc Pederson is a platoon-focused left-handed power hitter who has seven home runs and a .233 ISO over 140 plate appearances this season. Pederson’s 11.75 mark in our home run model leads the team, with Wade’s 10.54 sitting second. Thairo Estrada slots in third in the projected lineup, he has nine home runs and 17 stolen bases while slashing a robust .291/.343/.474 with a 124 WRC+ in 268 opportunities. The infielder costs $5,200 at second base on DraftKings and he adds shortstop eligibility for just $3,800 on FanDuel. Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski are two more left-handed power hitters who are looking for a shot at a long ball. Conforto has a 10.12 in our home run model, Yastrzemski sits at 8.69, which aligns well with their current output. In 248 plate appearances, Conforto has 12 home runs and his teammate has eight in 205 opportunities. Luis Matos checks in slashing .333/.529/.417 in his first 17 plate appearances in the Show. The outfielder ranks as a league-average prospect but has good speed on the base paths, he is just 21 and won’t be 22 until next season, so there is a lot of room to grow for the right-handed hitter. Matos is an option for $2,800/$2,500 if he plays. Patrick Bailey, Brandon Crawford, and Casey Schmitt have WRC+ marks of 135, 87, and 82 this season. Bailey has been good, but his production comes in just 85 plate appearances over which he has three home runs and a .228 ISO while slashing .304/.337/.532. Crawford has four home runs and three stolen bases with a .229/.308/.371 triple-slash and Schmitt has a pair of home runs and stolen bases with a .117 ISO and a .266/.286/.383 triple-slash. All three are mix-in options in small doses across several stacks of Giants.
Play: Padres bats/stacks, Michael Wacha, Giants bats/stacks
Update Notes:
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