This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.
This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video
All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io
Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning
Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.
2025 Week 13 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings
The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.
| TEAM | OPP | FD$ | FDpRank | FDvalRank | DK$ | DkpRank | DKvalRank | Vegas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | TB | $29,700 | 8 | 15 | $25,500 | 7 | 14 | 11 |
| ATL | NYJ | $27,800 | 11 | 12 | $22,600 | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| BUF | PIT | $29,300 | 7 | 10 | $24,200 | 8 | 13 | 4 |
| CAR | LAR | $27,300 | 17 | 18 | $22,200 | 16 | 19 | 17 |
| CLE | SF | $24,700 | 20 | 19 | $17,900 | 19 | 11 | 19 |
| HOU | IND | $26,900 | 10 | 8 | $21,400 | 10 | 4 | 13 |
| IND | HOU | $29,900 | 5 | 5 | $27,100 | 3 | 16 | 7 |
| JAC | TEN | $26,800 | 9 | 6 | $23,800 | 9 | 12 | 5 |
| LAC | LV | $28,500 | 4 | 4 | $22,800 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| LAR | CAR | $34,000 | 1 | 3 | $30,100 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| LV | LAC | $26,600 | 13 | 13 | $21,500 | 13 | 8 | 18 |
| MIA | NO | $26,300 | 3 | 1 | $24,300 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| MIN | SEA | $26,900 | 18 | 20 | $21,800 | 18 | 20 | 20 |
| NO | MIA | $25,100 | 14 | 7 | $20,000 | 15 | 7 | 14 |
| NYJ | ATL | $25,100 | 16 | 14 | $17,200 | 17 | 1 | 16 |
| PIT | BUF | $27,700 | 15 | 17 | $22,300 | 14 | 18 | 9 |
| SEA | MIN | $29,300 | 2 | 2 | $24,400 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| SF | CLE | $29,300 | 6 | 9 | $25,300 | 5 | 10 | 11 |
| TB | ARI | $29,000 | 12 | 16 | $23,500 | 12 | 15 | 5 |
| TEN | JAC | $21,900 | 19 | 11 | $18,600 | 20 | 17 | 15 |
Week 13 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups
Overview
Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.
Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.
DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options
Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.
Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.
Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.
FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.
Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.
Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.
DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules
This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.
- QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
- optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
- QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)
Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements
Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.
- Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
- Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
- optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)
We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.
Sunday Updates
Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.
NFL DFS Week 13 Features & Projections
- Week 13 Projections
- Week 13 Above/Below
- Week 13 Quarterback Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 13 Running Back Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 13 Pass-Catcher Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 13 Defense Scoring & Value Rankings
Construction Concept
Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.
Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 13
The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.
The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.
Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when a situation has an extremely highly projected running back that does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.
Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams.
Arizona Cardinals
Game Total: 44.5 / ARI +3.5 (20.5)
Offense: 35.95% rush / 64.05% pass/ 22.5 ppg / 4.3 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass / 25.8 ppg / 6.72% sack / 2.67% int
Key Player: Jacoby Brissett
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr. (Q), Michael Wilson, Zonovan “Bam” Knight (Q; on/off), Greg Dortch, Michael Carter (on/off), Elijah Higgins (large field; on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Bucky Irving, Emeka Egbuka, Cade Otton, Chris Godwin Jr., Rachaad White, Tez Johnson, Sean Tucker (on/0ff), Sterling Shepard
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett helms the Cardinals capable offense, ranking as QB6 by points and QB9 by value on DraftKings and QB6 by points and QB8 by value on FanDuel. Brissett has been solid in his stand-in role, averaging 314.5 passing yards per game with 11 touchdowns and a solid 7.2 yards per pass attempt across six starts. The quarterback threw for 452 yards in Week 11 and another 317 in Week 12, with three combined touchdown passes against a pair of interceptions. Brissett maintains efficiency with a completion percentage over expected of 2.5 and he is getting the Cards top receiver back in Marvin Harrison Jr. Against the 28th-ranked pass defense by yards allowed per attempt, Brissett has a chance to shine again in Week 13.
Running Backs
Zonovan “Bam” Knight leads a split backfield, ranking as RB25 by points and RB27 by value on DraftKings and RB22 by points and RB26 by value on FanDuel. He sees 7.0 rushing attempts per game with 10 carries in two of the last three contests, while averaging just 3.1 yards per attempt. Knight has four rushing touchdowns in the books on the year but is largely touchdown-dependent as a DFS option. He adds modest value in the passing game with 1.8 receptions and 11.8 receiving yards per game.
Michael Carter is not much more than a wildcard as RB29 by points and RB25 by value on DraftKings and RB26 by points and RB23 by value on FanDuel. He averages 6.4 attempts for 19.3 yards per game and has scored one touchdown on the season while missing time. Carter is slightly more involved as a receiver, averaging 2.4 receptions and 18.4 receiving yards per game.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Tight end Trey McBride is the clear focal point of the Arizona passing attack, ranking as TE1 by points and TE13 by value on DraftKings and TE1 by points and TE2 by value on FanDuel and standing tall as the most targeted tight end in the league by a wide margin. He runs a robust 41.4 routes per game and commands a 26.8 percent target share on routes run. McBride averages 72.5 receiving yards per game or 1.75 per route run and has scored seven times. McBride gets out into coverage in the mid-range with an ADOT of 6.9 yards and a 27.92% air yards share, he is capable in all aspects of the passing offense and has drawn a massive 21 red zone targets this season.
Marvin Harrison Jr. returns with his big-play potential, ranking as WR11 by points and WR16 by value on DraftKings and WR11 by points and WR13 by value on FanDuel. The receiver has been out for two weeks but should return to his typical volume immediately. Harrison Jr. runs 35.9 routes per game with a 15.3 percent target share on routes run and a dominant 31.06 percent air yards share. He will see a bit of competition for looks from Michael Wilson, who stood out boldly in his absence, but there should be plenty of work for both receivers this week. Harrison averages 58.3 receiving yards per game and has found the end zone four times. He operates downfield with an average depth of target of 12.4 yards that keeps him in big play territory.
Michael Wilson had an outstanding two weeks in Harrison Jr.’s absence, operating as the primary target at wide receiver. Wilson caught 15 of 18 targets in Week 11, gaining 185 yards but failing to score a touchdown. He repeated the trick with 10 catches on 15 targets last week, posting 118 yards but again lacking a touchdown. Wilson should go back to operating as a secondary perimeter option, and third in the pecking order with the presence of the target-sponge at tight end. Wilson ranks as WR17 by points and WR35 by value on DraftKings and WR16 by points and WR28 by value on FanDuel. He runs 37.9 routes per game and sees a 17.5 percent target share but could be expected to draw a bit more after the big games. The receiver would surge in value if Harrison Jr. is unable to suit up for Week 13.
Greg Dortch is a depth receiver, ranking as WR42 by points and WR51 by value on DraftKings and WR43 by points and WR40 by value on FanDuel. He runs limited routes but sees a high target rate when on the field. Dortch averages 17.5 receiving yards per game and has scored three touchdowns. Elijah Higgins ranks as TE30 by points and TE30 by value on DraftKings and TE31 by points and TE31 by value on FanDuel. He runs 12.6 routes per game and averages 14.7 receiving yards. Both pass-catchers are mere darts at cheap low-probability scores.
The Arizona stack presents a mid-board option with GPP upside this week, ranking seventh in DraftKings points and 14th in value, while sitting eighth in points and 15th in value on FanDuel. The matchup on the ground is middling, as the opposing defense ranks 13th in yards allowed per rush attempt at 4.1 but the passing game faces a much softer target, with the defense ranking 28th in yards allowed per pass attempt at 7.7, creating a big upside spot for Jacoby Brissett and his capable trio of pass-catchers.
Atlanta Falcons
Game Total: 38.5 / ATL -3.0 (20.75)
Offense: 44.74% rush / 55.26% pass / 19.9 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.2 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 26.5 ppg / 5.52% sack / 0.0% int
Key Player: Kirk Cousins
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Bijan Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts Sr., Tyler Allgeier (on/off), David Sills V, Dylan Drummond (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell, Mason Taylor, John Metchie III, Isaiah Davis, Allen Lazard (large field), Jeremy Ruckert (large field), Arian Smith (large field), Isaiah Williams (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins steps in to drive the Falcons bus again in Week 13, ranking as QB17 by points and QB17 by value on DraftKings and QB17 by points and QB19 by value on FanDuel. Cousins has made four appearances on the season, most recently completing 16 of 23 attempts for 199 yards with two touchdowns and an interception last week against New Orleans. For the season, the quarterback averages 6.0 yards per pass attempt and slots in with a 20.75-point implied team total in one of the lower-end game environments of the week. Cousins faces a mid-board defense in the Jets, but the low overall total and lack of inspiration from the quarterback do not bode well for large Atlanta stacks.
Running Backs
Superstar running back Bijan Robinson is the engine of the Falcons offense, ranking as RB4 by points and RB7 by value on DraftKings and RB4 by points and RB7 by value on FanDuel. He sees heavy volume with 15.6 rushing attempts per game, churning out 77.5 rushing yards per game. Despite his excellence, Robinson has found the end zone just four times on the ground, shaving a bit of his value. He remains a dual-threat weapon, adding 4.5 receptions and 49.4 receiving yards per game on an average of 5.5 targets that puts him well over our magic number of 20 potential touches per game. Robinson pops for extra yardage and big plays, averaging 2.5 yards after contact per attempt and a solid 10.47% broken tackle rate and gaining 5.0 yards per attempt overall on the year, good for 0.3 yards per attempt over expectation.
Tyler Allgeier is a big game hunter of a running back, by which we mean he poaches touchdowns like some dumbass killing rhinos. Allgeier operates as the secondary back, ranking as RB23 by points and RB23 by value on DraftKings and RB24 by points and RB24 by value on FanDuel, he is entirely a wildcard shot at a cheap touchdown. He averages 8.1 rushing attempts for 29.5 yards per game but just 3.6 per attempt, yet scoring a ridiculous seven rushing touchdowns this season.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Darnell Mooney should lead the way for the Falcons receiving room again, with Drake London out of commission. Mooney offers reliable production, ranking as WR18 by points and WR24 by value on DraftKings and WR17 by points and WR18 by value on FanDuel. He runs 29.4 routes per game and commands a 13.4% target share on routes run overall this year. The receiver picked up 74 yards on only three catches from three targets but scored a touchdown last week after disappointing with three catches on seven targets for only 34 yards in his Week 11 game against Carolina. Mooney averages 6.6 yards per target on the season and only has the one touchdown. He operates downfield with an average depth of target of 14.7 yards that puts him in big play range but he is only averaging 1.12 yards per route run.
Kyle Pitts Sr. ranks as TE6 by points and TE5 by value on DraftKings and TE6 by points and TE5 by value on FanDuel but that may come down slightly in the next update. Pitts Sr. has seen 13 targets over the last three games, catching exactly two passes in each contest. The tight end has not scored a touchdown since Week 4 and has not been over that week’s 70 yards all season. Pitts Sr. runs 32.3 routes per game and sees a decent 20.0% target share on routes run, keeping him a relevant part of the offense in terms of volume if not production, but he is truly more of a mixer of perhaps stack padding in a Cousins +2 build.
David Sills V is a depth receiver, ranking as WR50 by points and WR47 by value on DraftKings and WR42 by points and WR39 by value on FanDuel. He runs 16.1 routes per game on the year but has been over 25 routes twice and ran 20 routes in Week 11. Last week against New Orleans, Sills V ran just 16 routes and drew three targets but he caught two of them for 16 yards and a touchdown to provide only minor value at a cheap price. Dylan Drummond ranks as WR63 by points on DraftKings and WR54 by points on FanDuel, he is nothing more than a dart on this slate
Dylan Drummond, KhaDarel Hodge, and the backup tight ends are no more than dart throws with a bad quarterback in a low-end game environment.
The Falcons stack lands in a middle-tier spot this week, ranking 11th in points and ninth in value on DraftKings, while sitting 11th in points and 12th in value on FanDuel but much of that comes from the upside of the running backs who can be rostered without the burden of Kirk Cousins and co. The Falcons are probably best rostered as individual skill players but minor investments in skinny stacks are not necessarily dead in the water. They face a balanced defensive unit; the Jets rank 16th in yards allowed per rush attempt at 4.2 and 14th in yards allowed per pass attempt at 7.0, but the Falcons are carrying a fantasy-unfriendly implied team total that serves as a strong tiebreaker for the collision in the middle.
Buffalo Bills
Game Total: 46.0 / BUF -3.0 (24.5)
Offense: 47.38% rush / 52.62% pass / 28.3 ppg / 5.0 ypa rush / 8.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.2 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 23.9 ppg / 7.30% sack / 2.08% int
Key Player: Josh Allen
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: James Cook III, Khalil Shakir, Joshua Palmer (Q), Keon Coleman, Dawson Knox, Ty Johnson (on/off), Gabe Davis, Tyrell Shavers, Jackson Hawes (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Kenneth Gainwell (on/off), Pat Freiermuth, Calvin Austin III, Jonnu Smith (on/off), Roman Wilson, Darnell Washington (on/off),
Game Notes: Dalton Kincaid is questionable to play
Quarterback
Josh Allen checks in as one of the highest-projected players of the entire slate on either site, ranking as QB1 by points and QB11 by value on DraftKings and QB1 by points and QB5 by value on FanDuel. Allen has a tremendous any-given-slate ceiling while averaging 246.3 passing yards per game or 8.3 per attempt, with 18 touchdown passes against nine interceptions. The quarterback completes passes at a rate 2.0 points over expectation, a fair but not outstanding mark for accuracy that is to be expected from the gunslinger. Allen provides a high floor with his legs, averaging 33.7 rushing yards on 6.4 attempts per game and finding the end zone a whopping 10 times on the ground this season to dramatically pad fantasy scoring, including in a game last week in which he failed to throw a touchdown and threw two interceptions, but ran two in for scores. Allen is a tremendous but expensive option atop a good stack that rates slightly subpar by points per dollar. The Bills have a strong 24.5-point implied total against a middling Pittsburgh defense that has allowed big games on the season, there is no reason to think Allen would fail to shine in this spot at any price.
Running Backs
James Cook III leads the backfield, ranking as RB5 by points and RB11 by value on DraftKings and RB5 by points and RB11 by value on FanDuel. Cook handles a significant workload with 18.1 attempts per game on the ground and another 2.4 potential touches coming from targets in the passing game. The running back is averaging 98.5 rushing yards per game on the year and a tremendous 5.4 per rush attempt. Cook has scored eight times on the ground, he has undeniable upside but operates best as a standalone option, given the quarterback’s acumen for punching the ball in on the ground himself.
Ty Johnson serves as a change-of-pace option, ranking as RB37 by points on DraftKings. He averages 1.9 attempts for 8.2 yards per game and has one rushing touchdown, adding one catch per game for 14.6 more yards. Johnson would need a broken play to find any value. Ray Davis is a deep reserve, ranking as RB40 by points on DraftKings. He sees minimal volume with 2.2 attempts per game and is not a DFS consideration in Week 13.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Khalil Shakir is the most consistent receiver and the lead target for Josh Allen. Shakir slips into Week 13 ranking as WR15 by points and WR21 by value on DraftKings and WR14 by points and WR15 by value on FanDuel. He runs 27.6 routes per game and sees 6.5 targets, posting an efficient 1.86 yards per route run and 8.0 yards after the catch per reception, good for 1.9 yards over expectation after each catch. Shakir is a highly capable play maker who has found the end zone three times this season and could pair well in skinny stacks that also rely on Josh Allen’s ground game.
Joshua Palmer is a depth option, ranking as WR44 by points on DraftKings. He sees 3.6 targets per game and averages 9.4 yards per target with a solid explosive play rate on receptions but little to show for it with zero touchdowns on the year. Palmer averages 1.77 yards per route run but runs just 19.3 routes per game, limiting his value for DFS.
Keon Coleman offers big-play upside, ranking as WR47 by points on DraftKings. He runs 27.9 routes per game with an average depth of target of 11.7 yards that keeps him in scoring range. Coleman averages 36.7 receiving yards per game and has scored three touchdowns on the season but his place in the pecking order may be more limited than our current projections after two straight DNPs.
Dalton Kincaid is now trending toward playing after logging practices on Thursday and Friday, though he remains officially questionable. The tight end has been out for the last two weeks but he is a favored target in scoring territory in this offense with four touchdowns in the seven full games he played this season.
Dawson Knox ranks as TE20 by points and TE21 by value on DraftKings and TE17 by points and TE17 by value on FanDuel if Dalton Kincaid sits, lower if the starting tight end returns after getting late-week practice run. Knox runs 19.8 routes per game and sees 2.3 targets each week but draws more when acting as the primary tight end, though he only has one touchdown on the year.
Gabe Davis is a boom-or-bust option, ranking as WR51 by points on DraftKings. He runs 21.5 routes per game and averages 1.44 yards per route run in his return to Buffalo, drawing a few chances with scoring trajectory. Tyrell Shavers ranks as WR62 by points on DraftKings, he runs 11.7 routes per game and averages just 1.33 yards per route run but either he or Davis could draw better assignments if the team knocks Coleman down the depth chart again in Week 13.
The Bills stack lands in a decent but not elite tier this week, ranking as Stack 8 in DraftKings points and Stack 13 in value, while sitting as Stack 7 in points and Stack 10 in value on FanDuel. The matchup offers a balanced challenge; the opposing defense is allowing 4.2 yards per rush attempt, which ranks 16th, and gives up 7.1 yards per pass attempt, ranking 18th, and the Bills are drawing a healthy but not massive 24.5-point implied team total. The difficulty with Buffalo tends to be nailing down the non-obvious correlated scoring plays. Outside of Shakir and, if he returns, Kincaid, everyone else in the passing game is a wildcard at best, and the quarterback loves to score on the ground. Josh Allen on his own or Josh Allen +1 stacks are in prime shape for this slate, while Shakir, Cook, and an active Kincaid would be playable in or out of stacks.
Carolina Panthers
Game Total: 45.0 / CAR +10.5 (17.25)
Offense: 44.72% rush / 55.28% pass / 18.0 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.9 ypa rush / 6.3 ypa pass / 16.3 ppg / 7.23% sack / 3.02% int
Key Player: Bryce Young
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Tetairoa McMillan, Rico Dowdle (on/off), Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, Chuba Hubbard (on/off), Ja’Tavion Sanders, Tommy Tremble (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Kyren Williams, Blake Corum (on/off), Colby Parkinson, Terrance Ferguson (on/off), Jordan Whittington, Tutu Atwell
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Bryce Young continues to fight through a difficult campaign, though he had a standout performance in Week 11. Young checks in as QB16 by points and QB19 by value on DraftKings and QB16 by points and QB17 by value on FanDuel. Young averages a substandard 193.73 passing yards per game with 15 touchdowns against nine interceptions on the season with a mere 6.2 yards per pass attempt. The young signal-caller completes passes at a rate -1.8 points below expectation, limiting the ceiling of the entire offense. Young does not add much with his legs, he has one rushing touchdown and only takes off for 2.5 rushing attempts per game. While he has a major weapon in rookie Tetaroia McMillan, and he does have Week 11’s 448-yard three-toouchdown performance on his resume, Young seems unlikely to succeed against a Rams defense that ranks fifth against the run and fourth against the pass by yards per attempt while pressuring the quarterback at a 23.5% rate. Los Angeles seems likely to improve on their 12 interceptions for the season.
Running Backs
Rico Dowdle has emerged as the primary option in the backfield, ranking as RB14 by points and RB18 by value on DraftKings and RB13 by points and RB20 by value on FanDuel. Dowdle handles a mid-level workload with 14.5 attempts per game, despite a terrific 5.0 yards per rush attempt for a strong 0.9 yards over expectation per attempt. Dowdle has scored five times on the ground in his run to seizing the lead role in this backfield, he adds 2.3 receptions for 19.4 receiving yards per game, giving him multiple avenues to fantasy relevance on the Week 13 slate.
Chuba Hubbard has fallen behind the standout Dowdle and checks in ranking as just RB31 by points and RB30 by value on DraftKings and RB35 by points and RB36 by value on FanDuel. He averages 9.4 attempts for 35.0 yards per game and has scored one rushing touchdown. Hubbard adds 2.1 catches per game but functions mostly as a cheap dart throw at a broken scoring play at this stage.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Rookie Tetairoa McMillan is the clear lead option in the Carolina passing game. McMillan enters Week 13 ranking as WR7 by points and WR4 by value on DraftKings and WR7 by points and WR5 by value on FanDuel despite fairly low-end quarterback play. He runs 33.8 routes per game and commands a heavy 8.0 targets for a 26.8% target share on routes run over which he is posting a strong 1.93 yards per route run. McMillan averages 65.3 receiving yards per game and has found the end zone five times on the season in an offense that has managed 15 total touchdown passes. He dominates the team’s air yards with a massive 44.19% share on an 11.1-yard average depth of target, making him the only Panthers pass-catcher with a truly high ceiling.
Xavier Legette offers a secondary option, ranking as WR39 by points and WR34 by value on DraftKings and WR44 by points and WR48 by value on FanDuel. He sees 5.1 targets per game but has been less efficient, averaging just 0.98 yards per route run. Legette has scored three touchdowns this season and had a good Week 11 against Atlanta with four catches for 83 yards and a score on eight targets. His peak for the season will likely remain the Week 7 game in which he caught nine of 11 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown. Legette has a bit of upside if Bryce Young can find the form that was on display in Week 11.
Jalen Coker is a depth piece, ranking as WR40 by points but WR22 by value on DraftKings and WR40 by points and WR41 by value on FanDuel. Coker has run 25.8 routes per game since his return to action but draws limited volume with 3.2 targets each week for just a 5.30% target share on routes run and 0.97 yards per route run. Coker is yet to find the end zone this season, his value lives and dies with a touchdown from Young.
Ja’Tavion Sanders is the primary tight end, ranking as TE22 by points and TE14 by value on DraftKings and TE22 by points and TE22 by value on FanDuel. He runs 19.2 routes per game and sees a mere 3.3 targets, averaging 1.02 yards per route run. Sanders has yet to score a touchdown this season and has very limited value at the position. Tommy Tremble is a rotational tight end, ranking as TE31 by points and TE31 by value on DraftKings and TE34 by points and TE35 by value on FanDuel. He sees 2.1 targets per game and has one touchdown catch. Neither of the Carolina tight ends should be overly popular in a bad spot against a good defense.
The Panthers stack ranks as a low-end option, sitting at Stack 16 in DraftKings points and Stack 19 in value, while ranking as Stack 17 in points and Stack 18 in value on FanDuel in a bad spot against a strong Rams defense in what should be an utter blowout. The matchup is daunting; the Rams rank fifth in yards allowed per rush attempt at 3.9 and fourth in yards allowed per pass attempt at 6.3, creating a suffocating environment for an already struggling offense driven by a low-end quarterback. Individual shares of Tet McMillan are fine and he is the top pairing in a Carolina stack, with Legette and Coker offering minor +2 potential if this game somehow goes thermonuclear.
Cleveland Browns
Game Total: 35.5 / CLE +5.5 (15.0)
Offense: 40.06% rush / 59.94% pass / 16.9 ppg / 3.8 ypa rush / 5.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 21.8 ppg / 2.97% sack / 1.18% int
Key Player: Shedeur Sanders
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Quinshon Judkins, Jerry Jeudy, Harold Fannin Jr., Cedric Tillman, David Njoku, Isaiah Bond (large field), Malachi Corely (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Chrisitan McCaffrey, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, Brian Robinson Jr. (on/off), Demarcus Robinson (large field), Kyle Juszczyk (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Shedeur Sanders is the bottom of the barrel in Week 13 and there seems to be very little in play for the Browns stack in general at just a 15.0-point implied team total. Sanders ranks as QB20 by points and QB16 by value on DraftKings and QB20 by points and QB20 by value on FanDuel in his second start. In his first start last week against the Raiders, Sanders completed 11 of 20 passes for 209 yards with one touchdown and one interception, he has thrown for 7.1 yards per pass attempt but has taken a few decent shots at 8.5 intended air yards per attempt to this point. Sanders is simply in a bad spot against an OK 49ers defense in one of the slate’s many bad weather games.
Running Backs
Quinshon Judkins leads the Cleveland backfield, ranking as RB13 by points and RB13 by value on DraftKings and RB12 by points and RB15 by value on FanDuel. He handles a significant workload with 17.3 rushing attempts per game on the year, averaging 66.7 rushing yards. Judkins has scored seven times on the ground despite missing Week 1 and not truly seizing the job until Week 4. He adds modest value in the passing game with 1.4 receptions and 7.0 receiving yards per game, Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford are more frequent targets out of the backfield while Judkins handles the dirty work. The running back is in what looks like a sloppy mess of a low-scoring game but he has touchdown-dependent playability in GPPs in a pinch.
Dylan Sampson serves as a complementary back, ranking as RB27 by points and RB26 by value on DraftKings and RB28 by points and RB25 by value on FanDuel. He averages just 3.5 rushing attempts for 8.1 yards per game. Sampson is more involved as a receiver, adding 2.1 receptions and 17.7 receiving yards per game, and has scored two receiving touchdowns. Jerome Ford is questionable to play, and only operates as a depth option, ranking as RB39 by points and RB39 by value on DraftKings and RB43 by points and RB44 by value on FanDuel. He sees 2.2 rushing attempts per game for 6.6 yards, adding 1.9 receptions and just 2.9 yards per target on the season. There is no apparent value in the depth running backs in this offense.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Jerry Jeudy is the top receiving option on Shedeur Sanders’ offense, ranking as WR22 by points but leaping to WR7 by value on DraftKings while he sits as just WR31 by points and WR27 by value at a more normalized price on FanDuel. Jeudy leads the team with 35.5 routes run per game and commands a 21.2% target share on routes run with a dominant 37.68% air yards share. The receiver averages just 35.9 receiving yards per game and has scored one touchdown on a mixed bag of targets that have amounted to just a 55.26% catchable target rate on his deep 12.0-yard ADOT. Jeudy is a wildcard, if Sanders connects with anyone it is likely to be him, but that does not make it likely to happen.
Harold Fannin Jr. ranks as TE11 by points and TE12 by value on DraftKings and TE11 by points and TE12 by value on FanDuel, he is a low-end option in a terrible spot. Fannin Jr. has been capable while running 26.2 routes per game and drawing a solid 19.2% target share. He averages 5.6 yards per target and 1.60 per route run and has scored two touchdowns on the season. The tight end should be regarded as the second-most likely option in this bad passing spot.
Cedric Tillman ranks as WR38 by points and WR27 by value on DraftKings and WR45 by points and WR38 by value on FanDuel, the value is difficult to envision. Tillman runs 29.4 routes per game on the season, drawing just 4.4 targets for an 8.60% target share on routes run, over which he has seen a 58.06% catchable target rate to severely limit his chances, though he has managed to score twice on the year.
David Njoku is a mix-in tight end, ranking as TE18 by points and TE15 by value on DraftKings and TE24 by points and TE23 by value on FanDuel. He runs 26.0 routes per game and sees a 12.5% target share. Njoku averages just 28.8 receiving yards per game and 1.11 per route run but has scored three touchdowns on minor overall involvement. The tight end still sees chances in scoring territory with seven red zone targets this season.
Isaiah Bond is a deep threat who delivered an explosive play in Sanders’ debut to at least keep him slightly on the radar this week, ranking as WR64 by points and WR63 by value on DraftKings and WR65 by points and WR64 by value on FanDuel. Overall, Bond runs 22.2 routes per game with a deep average depth of target of 13.7 yards but manages just 18.1 receiving yards per game and 0.82 per route run, over which he has seen just a 48.48% catchable target rate. The receiver broke a big play for 52 yards on one of his two catches last week but failed to score, he had 58 total yards and was targeted only twice over 10 routes.
The Browns stack ranks 19th in DraftKings points but manages to climb to 11th in value on the back of purely cheap prices, they are sitting 20th in points and 19th in value on FanDuel. The matchup offers a mixed bag; the opposing defense ranks 13th with 4.1 yards allowed per rush attempt and 14th with 7.0 yards allowed per pass, but the game environment overall is expected to be brutal with cold, wind, and mixed freezing rain in the forecast in Cleveland. This game’s total dropped to just 35.5 with most of the weight landing with the capable 49ers and just a 15.0-point implied team total left for the Browns. This is not a good option in any sense.
Houston Texans
Game Total: 44.0 / HOU +3.5 (20.25)
Offense: 40.60% rush / 59.40% pass / 22.1 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 20.8 ppg / 7.25% sack / 2.61% int
Key Player: CJ Stroud
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Nico Collins, Woody Marks (on/off), Jayden Higgins, Dalton Schultz, Christian Kirk, Nick Chubb (on/off), Jaylin Noel (large field), Xavier Hutchinson (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Josh Downs
Game Notes:
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud returns to command the Texans offense and ranks as QB8 by points and QB4 by value on DraftKings and QB8 by points and QB6 by value on FanDuel despite just a 20.25-point implied team total against a decent Colts defense, which may be more indicative of the low-end slate than anything. Stroud returns after a three-game absence, he averages a light 7.0 yards per pass attempt and has thrown just 11 touchdowns against five interceptions in his seven full games. Stroud is moderately accurate, completing passes at a rate 0.9 points over expectation. He adds mobility to his game, averaging 23.6 rushing yards on 3.6 attempts per game, but he is more mobile than productive on the ground, as he has not found the end zone on a run. The quarterback does have a prime option in wide receiver Nico Collins but this is not an ideal spot.
Running Backs
Woody Marks leads the Houston backfield, ranking as RB16 by points and RB14 by value on DraftKings and RB15 by points and RB12 by value on FanDuel. Marks sees 10.5 rushing attempts per game on the season, putting up just 3.7 yards per attempt. The running back found the end zone twice on the ground in his run-up to the lead role but he has not scored since Week 10. Marks has seen increased volume in recent games, however that may be a product of the backup quarterback in play. He is involved in the passing game, adding 1.5 receptions on 2.4 weekly targets.
Nick Chubb serves as the power back, ranking as RB36 by points and RB38 by value on DraftKings and RB36 by points and RB34 by value on FanDuel. He averages just 9.5 attempts but is up to 4.1 yards per rush attempt and has scored two rushing touchdowns in the lousy offense.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Nico Collins is the primary, secondary, and tertiary receiver in the Texans offense and he drops into Week 13 ranking as WR4 by points and WR2 by value on DraftKings and WR5 by points and WR6 by value on FanDuel. Collins runs 33.4 routes per game and commands a 22.4% target share on routes run and a 32.79% air yards share. The receiver posts a middling 69.7 receiving yards per game and has scored four touchdowns but he has been impressive and efficient at 2.09 yards per route run and has done a lot with just a 62.35% catchable target rate.
Jayden Higgins ranks as WR25 by points but springs to WR5 by value on DraftKings while sitting as WR25 by points and WR17 by value on FanDuel. Higgins runs 21.2 routes per game and sees 4.1 targets. Higgins averages 26.7 receiving yards per game and has scored four touchdowns, including two in the last three games and three in the last five. Higgins is effective but not efficient with 1.26 yards per route run on the season, he is in play for a cheap touchdown in +2 builds at a strong value price.
Dalton Schultz is a reliable tight end, ranking as TE8 by points and TE4 by value on DraftKings and TE8 by points and TE8 by value on FanDuel. Schultz runs 31.0 routes per game and sees a fair 18.9% target share on routes run that puts him in the mix with anyone not named Collins in this passing game. Schultz is a key target for Stroud, he puts up a steady 1.46 yards per route run and has drawn seven red zone chances on the season but has managed just one touchdown.
Christian Kirk ranks as WR36 by points and WR19 by value on DraftKings and WR38 by points and WR45 by value on FanDuel, like his teammates he is showing a bit of points-per-dollar value in spots. He runs 24.4 routes per game and sees 5.3 targets each week. Kirk averages 28.3 receiving yards per game and has one touchdown in the books in 2025.
Jaylin Noel is a depth receiver, ranking as WR56 by points on DraftKings and WR57 by points on FanDuel. He runs 13.3 routes per game and averages 19.4 receiving yards. Noel has scored one touchdown this season and has limited DFS potential on any given slate, though that goes up somewhat with Stroud back in the mix.
Xavier Hutchinson is WR59 by points on DraftKings and WR56 by points on FanDuel. He runs 26.8 routes per game and averages a mere 0.89 yards per route run but has found the end zone three times to sit second on the team behind Collins and Higgins.
The Texans stack enters the slate in a strong position for value, ranking as Stack 10 by DraftKings points and Stack 4 in value, while sitting as Stack 10 in points and Stack 8 in value on FanDuel. The matchup is favorable but not a pushover; the opposing defense ranks ninth in yards allowed per rush attempt at just 4.0, limiting the upside of the less-than-special running backs, while sitting 10th in yards allowed per pass attempt at just 6.9. The Texans should end up taking to the air as underdogs against a capable Colts offense, which could create upside around a Stroud+Collins+1 (or not) build.
Indianapolis Colts
Game Total: 44.0 / IND -3.5 (23.75)
Offense: 43.80% rush / 56.20% pass / 31.0 ppg / 5.2 ypa rush / 8.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 6.2 ypa pass / 16.5 ppg / 8.66% sack / 3.45% int
Key Player: Daniel Jones
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren (Q), Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Josh Downs
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Nico Collins, Woody Marks (on/off), Jayden Higgins, Dalton Schultz, Christian Kirk, Nick Chubb (on/off), Jaylin Noel (large field), Xavier Hutchinson (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
OK, there is outplaying our expectations at quarterback across most of a season and then there is the idea of doing so on a broken leg, which Daniel Jones will apparently attempt in Week 13. Jones is an awkward fit in Week 13, ranking as QB10 by points but QB20 by value on DraftKings and QB10 by points and QB14 by value on FanDuel. The quarterback is distributing the ball efficiently, averaging a strong 258.18 passing yards per game with 17 touchdown passes and a healthy 8.1 yards per pass attempt, though he has thrown seven interceptions on the season. The standout has been his accuracy despite the deep looks, the quarterback is currently completing passes 5.7 points above expectation by CPOE. He also provides a stable floor with his legs, scrambling for 14.5 yards per game on 3.9 attempts and punching it in for five scores on the ground this season, though that expectation should be heavily tempered with the bum wheel. Jones is lower-projected in our numbers, which has an impact on his value marks, but he retains ceiling with all of his terrific weapons in place. A fair tiebreaker, outside of the, to repeat, broken leg, would be a Texans pass defense that allows just 6.2 yards per pass attempt to rank second.
Running Backs
The envy of the league at the running back position, Jonathan Taylor continues to be the engine of this offense, ranking as RB3 by points and RB12 by value on DraftKings and RB2 by points and RB6 by value on FanDuel. Taylor dominates the backfield usage with 18.6 rushing attempts per game, turning that volume into a terrific 108.8 rushing yards per game or 5.8 per attempt. The walking first down creates for himself exceptionally well, generating 1.6 yards over expectation per attempt and forcing missed tackles on 10.24% of his runs. Taylor has found the end zone 15 times as a rusher and remains involved in the passing game, securing 2.9 receptions on 3.2 targets per game per contest to get him over our desired 20.0 potential weekly touches. Taylor is a major weapon that the Colts may lean on if Jones is less than 100%.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Tyler Warren has emerged as a focal point in the passing attack, ranking as TE4 by points and TE6 by value on DraftKings and TE4 by points and TE3 by value on FanDuel. He is a constant presence in the offense, running 30.6 routes per game and earning a 21.4% target share on routes run. Warren turns those looks into 60.2 receiving yards per game and 1.96 per route run, and has scored three times. He is highly effective after the catch, posting 7.9 yards after the catch per reception for 0.9 yards over expectation after each catch. The breakout rookie has scored three times and plays nicely both in and out of stacks despite the tough defensive matchup.
Michael Pittman Jr. remains the primary perimeter option, ranking as WR13 by points and WR20 by value on DraftKings and WR13 by points and WR9 by value on FanDuel. He commands a 22.6% target share on his 31.9 routes per game. Pittman produces 55.2 receiving yards per outing and has proven to be a scoring threat with seven touchdown catches on the season. With 1.73 yards per route run with an intermediate average depth of target of 8.0 yards he leaves a bit to be desired for efficiency and route shaping, but there is a fair amount of potential to go around for the Colts offense.
Alec Pierce provides the vertical element to the offense with his tremendous 19.9-yard average depth of target putting him among the elite weapons of mass destruction on any given slate. Pierce slots into Week 13 ranking as WR20 by points and WR17 by value on DraftKings and WR15 by points and WR8 by value on FanDuel and as one of our unapologetically favored options. He stretches the field like few others over his 32.3 routes per game. Though he has managed just one touchdown, Pierce boasts an impressive 2.10 yards per route run on his deep opportunities despite just a 53.70% catchable target rate.
Josh Downs works out of the slot, ranking as WR35 by points and WR32 by value on DraftKings and WR39 by points and WR42 by value on FanDuel. He runs 22.5 routes per game and sees a 15.7% target share on routes run, putting him last in the pecking order among the primary options in this highly-capable offense. Downs averages 32.6 receiving yards per game and has found the end zone three times this year.
The Colts stack offers significant upside this week, checking in as the third-highest projected stack on DraftKings points and 16th in value, while sitting fifth in both points and value on FanDuel. Much of this potential is created in a bubble by Jonathan Taylor, who can easily be played in individual shares. The passing game is in a more challenging matchup and Jones, as one may have noted, has a broken leg. Taylor remains in play within stacks and the Colts have enviable weapons at every spot and on every branch of the route tree to place with Jones in +1 or +2 builds.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Game Total: 42.0 / JAC -6.0 (24.0)
Offense: 44.86% rush / 55.14% pass / 24.3 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 6.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass / 27.5 ppg / 7.52% sack / 1.51% int
Key Player: Trevor Lawrence
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Travis Etienne Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Brenton Strange, Parker Washington, Bhayshul Tuten (on/off), Dyami Brown (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Tony Pollard, Elic Ayomanor, Chimere Dike, Tyjae Spears (on/off), Gunnar Helm, Chig Okonkwo, Van Jefferson, James Proche II (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence leads the charge for Jacksonville again in Week 13, for better or worse. Lawrence slots in ranking as QB4 by points and QB2 by value on DraftKings and QB4 by points and QB1 by value on FanDuel with the Jaguars in one of the leading game environments of the week against a lousy Titans defense. Yes, this is a story we have heard before. Lawrence has failed to deliver in most respects as an NFL quarterback, he averages just 218.82 passing yards per game in his fifth season in the league, with 14 touchdowns against 11 interceptions and just 6.5 yards per pass attempt. Lawrence adds a bit of value with his legs, averaging 19.1 rushing yards on 4.9 attempts per game and finding the end zone five times on the ground for the year to pad numbers somewhat. The quarterback was all over the place last week, throwing for 256 yards on 18-30 passing with three touchdowns but also three interceptions. Jacksonville has major upside against a defense that slots in 29th against the pass at 7.8 yards allowed per attempt and with the expected return of top receiver Brian Thomas Jr., who struggled heavily before his absence.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne Jr. ranks as RB8 by points and RB5 by value on DraftKings and RB8 by points and RB5 by value on FanDuel as his impressive season marches on. Against a very bad rush defense that has been gouged for 4.8 yards per attempt, there is major potential both in and out of stacks. Etienne leads the backfield with 15.4 rushing attempts per game over which he picks up an impressive 4.8 yards per attempt for 74.1 yards per game. Etienne has scored five rushing touchdowns this season and is also a factor in the passing game, averaging 2.2 receptions and 14.5 receiving yards per game with another two scores through the air. Etienne should be an easy click in any format in a great Week 13 matchup.
Bhayshul Tuten is a rotational back with explosive potential that was on display with 74 yards and a touchdown on a season-high 15 carries in Week 11. Tuten slid back to Earth with 17 yards on seven carries last week and comes into Week 13 ranking as just RB24 by points and RB24 by value on DraftKings and RB25 by points and RB22 by value on FanDuel. He sees 6.1 rushing attempts per game for 23.2 yards and has scored three times on the ground overall this season, making him a touchdown-dependent dart throw on a big play.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Brian Thomas Jr. is a key weapon on the outside, or he was through the second-half of last year and in the preseason expectations of millions of season-long fantasy drafters coming into a new season. This week, Thomas Jr. is expected to return from his three-week absence and he slots in ranking as WR14 by points but WR29 by value on DraftKings and WR19 by points and WR21 by value on FanDuel. Thomas Jr. leads the squad with 35.8 routes run per game and sees 7.5 targets for steady involvement, but he averaged just 52.5 receiving yards per game before departing and has found the end zone only once while posting just 1.47 yards per route run despite an average depth of target of 12.9 yards. These are disappointing marks by any measure, but there is just enough time for the second-year standout to rescue his season. This is as good a spot for a breakout game as Thomas Jr. will find.
Jakobi Meyers should take a minor step back as the second option in the passing game, he ranks as WR19 by points and WR30 by value on DraftKings and WR24 by points and WR23 by value on FanDuel. Meyers was added at the deadline, he had moderate success in his first few outings, including 50 yards and a touchdown catch on four catches over six targets last week. Overall, the receiver runs 30.0 routes per game and commands a 18.7% target share on routes run with one touchdown. He is efficient with 1.69 yards per route run and could provide a lower point of ownership from which to dive into the Jacksonville stack.
Brenton Strange ranks as TE9 by points and TE8 by value on DraftKings and TE10 by points and TE11 by value on FanDuel. Strange missed time this season but overall he runs 25.7 routes per game and sees 4.8 targets for fair and steady involvement in the passing attack. The tight end has posted 49.5 receiving yards per game but has yet to score a touchdown. A fair decision point in rostering Strange is his excellent 1.93 yards per route run, he is an underrated performer overall and an easy way to undercut ownership while maintaining upside in the passing game.
Parker Washington ranks as WR28 by points and WR46 by value on DraftKings and WR22 by points and WR16 by value on FanDuel as he also drops a spot on the depth chart with Thomas returning to action. Washington runs 25.4 routes per game and sees 5.5 targets, returning just 1.51 yards per route run or 7.0 per targe and scoring three times.
Dyami Brown is a depth receiver and nothing more than a DFS wildcard for a big play on light volume. Brown slots in ranking as WR67 by points and WR67 by value on DraftKings and WR73 by points and WR73 by value on FanDuel. He runs just 19.9 routes per game and averages 1.10 yards per route run with one touchdown this season but a big-play-adjacent 14.2-yard ADOT pushing him to an appealing 19.19% air yards share.
The Jaguars stack offers an intriguing upside spot with a bit of value at a few key positions that could allow for premium standalone option pairing. Jacksonville ranks as Stack 9 by points on DraftKings points and Stack 12 in value, while sitting as Stack 9 in points and Stack 6 in value on FanDuel. The matchup is favorable on all fronts; the opposing defense ranks 27th in yards allowed per rush attempt at 4.8 and 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt at 7.8, signaling a potential field day for the offense in a game where they are favored by six. Travis Etienne Jr. has the most standalone value while any of the top three receivers and the tight end can be played at varying degrees of risk outside of stacks. Building +1 or +2 lineups around Trevor Lawrence is not for the faint of heart but it could be an advisable upside play that others are more reluctant to make than they would be with other teams in the same situation.
Las Vegas Raiders
Game Total: 41.0 / LV +10.0 (15.5)
Offense: 38.53% rush / 61.65% pass / 15.0 ppg / 3.5 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 6.3 ypa pass / 21.6 ppg / 8.17% sack / 3.07% int
Key Player: Geno Smith
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty, Tre Tucker, Tyler Lockett, Raheem Mostert (on/off), Dont’e Thornton Jr. (large field), Jack Bech (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Kimani Vidal, Ladd McConkey, Oronde Gadsden II, Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, Tre’ Harris (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
At just 15.5 implied points, there seems like very little reason to look toward the Raiders in Week 13, other than potential shares of bring-back Bowers. Geno Smith helms the Las Vegas offense, but ranks as just QB18 by points and QB13 by value on DraftKings and QB19 by points and QB18 by value on FanDuel. Smith averages 215.18 passing yards per game on 32.09 attempts but has struggled with turnovers, throwing 13 interceptions to match his 13 touchdowns on the season. His efficiency metrics show room for improvement, as he is completing passes 1.7 points below expectation by CPOE. The quarterback has been lousy this season, outside of Bowers he has few weapons with which to succeed, and he faces a difficult test against a top-tier pass defense that allows just 6.3 yards per attempt to sit fourth in the league.
Running Backs
Ashton Jeanty leads the backfield in a matchup that favors the ground game, while they have been good against the pass, the Chargers are leaky against the run with 4.7 yards allowed per rush attempt landing them 25th in football. Jeanty ranks as RB9 by points and RB9 by value on DraftKings and RB10 by points and RB10 by value on FanDuel. With 15.1 rushing attempts per game, the volume is just OK for the rookie, and he has not been overly efficient at just 3.6 yards per carry. He creates yardage after contact, averaging 2.3 yards after contact per attempt, and is elusive with a broken tackle rate of 10.84%. Jeanty’s explosive run rate stands at 7.23 percent, providing upside against a soft run defense. The running back has four rushing touchdowns and another four through the passing game where he picks up volume at 4.2 targets per game.
Raheem Mostert rotates into the backfield and ranks as RB38 by points and RB33 by value on DraftKings and RB38 by points and RB38 by value on FanDuel. He averages 4.6 yards per carry on limited volume, with a 10.00% explosive run rate and 3.2 yards after contact per attempt but zero touchdowns this season.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Brock Bowers serves as the primary weapon in the passing game and the only true rival to Trey McBride at the position on this slate. Bowers checks in ranking as TE2 by points and TE3 by value on DraftKings and TE2 by points and TE4 by value on FanDuel. He commands a significant 18.70% target share on 34.5 routes run per game and is effective, averaging 1.85 yards per route run. Bowers operates with an average depth of target of 7.0 yards, accounting for 20.98% of the team air yards, he is also a threat after the catch, averaging 5.9 yards after the catch per reception for 1.2 beyond expectation. The tight end missed time and has only caught three touchdowns in the limited offense, but the upside and talent are clear and he can be deployed in or out of stacks.
Tre Tucker offers big-play potential, ranking as WR23 by points and WR25 by value on DraftKings and WR21 by points and WR12 by value on FanDuel. He sees an 18.70% target share on routes run and averages 1.38 yards per route run. Tucker works downfield with a 10.3-yard average depth of target and commands 25.04% of the team air yards keeping him in big play range. He matches Bowers with 5.9 yards after the catch per reception but that mark is good for just 0.3 yards over expectation for the wideout. Tucker’s five touchdown catches lead this group but three of them came in one big performance that is fading into memory.
Tyler Lockett has been involved since coming to Las Vegas, drawing six, three, and five targets over the last three games, though he has failed to score or exceed last week’s 62 yards. Lockett is currently ranking as WR41 by points and WR38 by value on DraftKings and WR46 by points and WR47 by value on FanDuel putting him at the edge of the playable world. The receiver has been pedestrian at best with just 0.86 yards per route run on an average depth of target of 7.7 yards overall this year.
Dont’e Thornton Jr. provides a vertical element, though he checks in as WR60 by points and WR59 by value on DraftKings and WR60 by points and WR60 by value on FanDuel in the limited Raiders offense. His 16.3-yard average depth of target is the highest on the team, though his volume is low with a 6.70 percent target share on routes run leading to an anemic 0.57 yards per route run, though part of that has to be attributed to just a 43.48% catchable target rate that does not make things easy.
Jack Bech rounds out the receiver group, ranking as WR69 by points and WR69 by value on DraftKings and WR71 by points and WR72 by value on FanDuel. The rookie has little to no value outside of a big play on one or two targets.
The Raiders offense presents a low-end option for the slate, ranking as the 13th stack by points and eighth by value on DraftKings while sitting 13th in both points and value on FanDuel with a bit of padding from skill players who are better individually than the whole. They face a Chargers defense with a distinct split in efficiency. The unit is stout against the pass, ranking fourth in yards allowed per pass attempt, surrendering just 6.3 yards per pass. However, the Chargers are vulnerable on the ground, ranking 25th in yards allowed per rush attempt, giving up 4.7 yards per carry which could play up the value of Ashton Jeanty who also sees potential in the passing game. A Smith+1 build with Bowers could be differentiated with the addition of the rookie running back instead of a second primary pass catcher.
Los Angeles Chargers
Game Total: 41.0 / LAC -10.0 (25.5)
Offense: 39.72% rush / 60.28% pass / 22.4 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.7 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 25.2 ppg / 5.39% sack / 1.99% int
Key Player: Justin Herbert
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Kimani Vidal, Ladd McConkey, Oronde Gadsden II, Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, Tre’ Harris (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty, Tre Tucker, Tyler Lockett, Raheem Mostert (on/off), Dont’e Thornton Jr. (large field), Jack Bech (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Justin Herbert leads the Chargers offense with excellent efficiency metrics, ranking as QB3 by points and QB10 by value on DraftKings and QB3 by points and QB7 by value on FanDuel. The quarterback averages 244.64 passing yards per game on 34.18 attempts, delivering a healthy 7.2 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown 19 touchdowns against nine interceptions on the season and is completing passes two percent over expectation by CPOE. Herbert also provides a stable rushing floor, averaging 4.9 rushing attempts per game and gaining 6.4 yards per attempt, though he has managed only one rushing touchdown. Given the pass funnel nature of the Raiders defense, Herbert is in a prime position to leverage his arm talent in Week 13 at the top of one of the leading stack choices on both sites.
Running Backs
Kimani Vidal leads the backfield but ranks better for value than points, landing as RB10 by points and RB4 by value on DraftKings and RB9 by points and RB3 by value on FanDuel. Vidal will be in the lead role once again with Omarion Hampton unable to make it back despite being activated from IR. Vidal has sees solid volume over his seven starts, with 12.0 rushing attempts per game increasing to 25 in Week 10 and 23 in Week 8, and averaging 4.3 yards per carry. The running back displays burst with an explosive run rate of 8.33 percent and creates yardage after contact, averaging 2.2 yards after contact per attempt. Vidal carried the ball just five times for 13 yards in last week’s contest but that was a major letdown after 95 yards and a score on 25 carries the week before. Vidal has been an every other week performer recently, he had another clunker in Week 9 against the lousy Titans defense at heavy exposure. The rushing matchup is brutal against a Raiders defense that allows just 3.7 yards per rush attempt this season but Vidal has a shot at volume and efficiency keeping him in the mix at a fair price.
Trayveon Williams serves as a depth option, ranking as RB44 by points and RB44 by value on DraftKings and RB39 by points and RB39 by value on FanDuel. His role is minimal, averaging just 1.5 attempts per game with a negative yards per carry average. He averages 0.3 yards after contact per attempt and does not project as a primary fantasy contributor in this difficult matchup.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Ladd McConkey has emerged as a focal point of the passing attack, ranking as WR9 by points and WR13 by value on DraftKings and WR9 by points and WR14 by value on FanDuel. He commands a 22.2% target share and is efficient with his opportunities, generating 1.63 yards per route run. Operating with an average depth of target of 8.9 yards, he commands a 25.38% share of the team air yards. McConkey is effective with the ball in his hands, averaging 5.0 yards after the catch per reception on the season, good for 1.1 yards over expectation after each catch. The receiver has four touchdown catches this year, putting him in a tie for second on the team, but that comes after a dearth of touchdowns over the first four games, McConkey now has four touchdowns in the last seven games, with only one lousy outing in that stretch.
Oronde Gadsden II offers significant value at tight end, he ranks as TE5 by points and TE2 by value on DraftKings and TE3 by points and TE1 by value on FanDuel as his breakout campaign continues. Gadsden earns a 13.0% target share on his 28.7 routes per game but maximizes his chances at DFS relevance with a robust 1.97 yards per route run. The tight end works the intermediate areas with an 8.3-yard average depth of target and is dangerous after the catch, posting 5.2 yards after the catch per reception, good for 1.5 yards over expectation after each catch. Gadsden II is an interesting option both in and out of stacks this week, he plays well as the lead option in a cheap skinny stack or as a +2 alongside one of the team’s excellent wideouts.
Keenan Allen remains a high-volume option, ranking as WR21 by points and WR26 by value on DraftKings and WR23 by points and WR32 by value on FanDuel. Allen commands a team-leading 22.8% target share on routes run over his 28.7 routes per game and posts a solid 1.87 yards per route run with an average depth of target of 8.6 yards. Allen accounts for 26.46% of the team air yards, solidifying his role as a primary weapon, a role that has awarded him four touchdown catches on the season.
Quentin Johnston operates as the vertical threat on a 10.4-yard ADOT. The erratic receiver slots into Week 13 ranking as WR29 by points and WR39 by value on DraftKings and WR26 by points and WR30 by value on FanDuel. Johnston sees a 17.5% target share on his routes and averages just 1.37 yards per route run but he works to open areas of the field, and he is a playmaker in space with 5.4 yards after the catch per reception good for 1.3 yards over expectation per reception. Johnston holds a 25.16% share of the team air yards and has a team-leading six touchdown catches on the season.
Tre’ Harris provides depth to the receiving corps, ranking at the fringes of playability in large field GPPs as WR54 by points and WR54 by value on DraftKings and WR62 by points and WR62 by value on FanDuel. He sees a limited 5.3 percent target share on routes run and averages 0.87 yards per route run with an average depth of target of just 6.4 yards that does not lead him to big plays or many scoring chances. Harris has one touchdown in the books and may not add a second, he is just a wildcard entry.
The Chargers offense enters the slate in a favorable spot for production through the air, ranking as the sixth-best stack by points and third by value on DraftKings while landing fourth in both categories on FanDuel. The matchup dictates a pass-heavy approach, as the Raiders defense is formidable on the ground but vulnerable through the air. The unit ranks second in yards allowed per rush attempt, stifling opponents to just 3.7 yards per carry. However, the secondary ranks 22nd in yards allowed per pass attempt, surrendering 7.2 yards per pass attempt and allowing 1.55 touchdown passes per game. Any of the primary pass catchers, tight end included, are viable in or out of stacks, the question mark in this offense comes on the ground with Kimani Vidal showing value upside but a tough road to success and carrying results of mixed quality in recent form.
Los Angeles Rams
Game Total: 45.0 / LAR -10.5 (27.75)
Offense: 42.63% rush / 57.37% pass / 27.8 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 22.4 ppg / 4.13% sack / 2.70% int
Key Player: Matthew Stafford
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Kyren Williams (on/off), Blake Corum (on/off), Colby Parkinson, Jordan Whittington (large field), Tutu Atwell (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Tetairoa McMillan, Rico Dowdle (on/off), Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, Chuba Hubbard (on/off), Ja’Tavion Sanders, Tommy Tremble (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford operates this high-powered Rams attack and drops into Week 13 ranking as QB2 by points but QB15 by value at a high price on DraftKings and QB2 by points and by value on FanDuel where he is far more fairly-priced. The veteran signal-caller averages 257.27 passing yards per game on 33.91 attempts, throwing an obscene 30 touchdowns against just two interceptions on the season. His efficiency is strong, completing passes 2.1% over expectation by CPOE, and he has some of the best weapons in the game at his disposal. Stafford averages 7.6 yards per pass attempt and remains one of the safest bets for volume and production in a matchup that imposes few limitations given the middling Carolina defense. The Rams are once again one of the top options of the week at their 27.75-point implied team total.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams headlines the ground game, ranking as RB7 by points and RB6 by value on DraftKings and RB7 by points and RB13 by value on FanDuel. Williams handles a fair workload with 15.5 rushing attempts and 2.9 targets per game, and averages 4.7 yards per carry this season. He has reversed course from the volume-dependent inefficient rusher that he was last season to become a more steadily productive grinder. Williams is elusive, forcing broken tackles on 10.00% of his runs and averaging 1.8 yards after contact per attempt. He has six rushing touchdowns this season, the team tends to throw the ball into the end zone with regularity, shaving a bit of potential upside for the capable short-yardage back.
Blake Corum provides a change of pace, ranking as RB28 by points and RB28 by value on DraftKings and RB27 by points and RB29 by value on FanDuel. He averages 7.5 attempts per game and 4.2 yards per carry and has been productive while flashing explosiveness with a 9.76% explosive run rate and creates for himself with a broken tackle rate of 8.54%. Corum averages 1.1 yards after contact per attempt, offering viable production when called upon, though he does not see enough touches to make a quality DFS score without a big play and/or a touchdown.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Puka Nacua is simply one of the premier receivers in the league, on a short list with perhaps only one other name. Nacua ranks as WR2 by points and WR3 by value on DraftKings and WR2 by points and WR2 by value on FanDuel in Week 13. He commands a massive 26.9% target share on routes run and turns it into a staggering 3.44 yards per route run. Nacua averages 94.7 receiving yards per game and is a force after the catch, averaging 4.7 yards after the catch per reception for 1.1 yards over expectation after the catch each catch. With a 25.67% share of the team air yards, Nacua is the focal point of the passing attack on his 9.1-yard ADOT, though more touchdowns have gone toward his productive teammate.
With a dozen touchdown catches to Nacua’s four, Davante Adams brings elite route running and veteran savvy to the receiver room, and has seen a massive 25 red zone targets this season. Adams slots into the highly-projected stack ranking as WR3 by points and WR9 by value on DraftKings and WR3 by points and WR4 by value on FanDuel. He earns a 25.8% target share on routes run and averages 1.86 yards per route run for the year, but we care most about his production in scoring territory. Adams operates as the primary deep threat with a 12.5-yard average depth of target, commanding a team-high 37.89% of the air yards. His role in the red zone and downfield makes him a high-upside option in any format both in and out of stacks on both sites. Adams is a clear top option in an offense where he can be rostered as the second banana.
Colby Parkinson serves as the primary tight end, ranking as TE23 by points and TE20 by value on DraftKings and TE18 by points and TE18 by value on FanDuel. He sees a limited 5.8% target share with the big mouths to feed above him in the pecking order, but he is is efficient with his opportunities, averaging 1.74 yards per route run. Operating near the line of scrimmage with a 2.6-yard average depth of target, he provides a reliable outlet for Stafford but not much for DFS value in the absence of a touchdown catch. He has three of those this year.
Jordan Whittington rounds out the receiving options, ranking as WR57 by points and WR57 by value on DraftKings and WR63 by points and WR65 by value on FanDuel. There is just not enough to go around to truly keep additional receivers like Whittington and Tutu Atwell relevant. Whittington sees just a 5.8% target share on his 17.5 routes per game and averages 0.76 yards per route run. His role is largely complementary, with a 6.4-yard average depth of target. Atwell draws just 1.5 targets per game for a 2.5% target share on routes run but sees an appealing 19.7-yard ADOT.
The Rams offense arrives in a smash spot, ranking as the Stack 1 by points and Stack 6 by value on DraftKings while claiming the top spot for points and Stack 3 for value on FanDuel. The matchup against the Panthers offers little resistance, as the defense ranks 19th in yards allowed per rush attempt, giving up 4.3 yards per carry, and 18th in yards allowed per pass attempt, surrendering 7.1 yards per pass attempt. This balanced vulnerability sets the stage for a potential offensive explosion but it is mostly the passing game that we are interested in with Stafford +1 or +2 builds playing up in a big way around his lead receivers. While this is an obvious and exposed path, there are plenty of additional spots in any given lineup to get different, Los Angeles is a go-to in a good spot. Kyren Williams and the team’s main receivers can also be deployed out of stacks in other builds for additional exposure.
Miami Dolphins
Game Total: 42.0 / MIA -5.0 (23.5)
Offense: 42.41% rush / 57.59% pass / 20.5 ppg / 4.8 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass / 24.9 ppg / 7.25% sack / 1.95% int
Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, Malik Washington, Darren Waller (Q), Ollie Gordon II (on/off), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (on/off), Cedrick Wilson Jr. (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Chris Olave, Devin Neal, Juwan Johnson, Devaughn Vele, Taysom Hill (on/off), Mason Tipton, Foster Moreau (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa directs the Dolphins offense while passing for a mere 6.8 yards per attempt on the season. The quarterback lands as QB9 by points but leaps to QB3 by value on DraftKings and QB9 by points and by value on FanDuel. The quarterback averages just 193.0 passing yards per game on 28.36 attempts, light volume by comparison to most of the available options. While he has thrown 17 touchdowns this season, ball security has been an issue with 13 interceptions. His efficiency metrics are slightly below average, Tagovailoa he is completing passes 0.3% below expectation by CPOE. Despite the lower yardage totals, the favorable matchup through the air provides a path to upside, the New Orleans defense is 25th against the pass with 7.4 yards allowed per attempt, though they do pressure the quarterback effectively. Tagovailoa has fair options in the passing game, he is on the board but primarily for cheap value darts.
Running Backs
De’Von Achane sees moderate volume with 14.9 rushing attempts per game, but averages a robust 5.5 yards per carry and picks up additional chances with 6.5 targets per game in the passing attack. Achane is elusive, forcing a broken tackle on 8.54% of his runs and creating 2.8 yards after contact per attempt. His contributions in the passing game amount to 4.9 receptions per game and averaging 33.6 receiving yards each week. The running back has five rushing touchdowns and four touchdown catches to lead the team in scoring this season. Achane checks into Week 13 ranking as RB1 by points and RB3 by value on DraftKings and RB1 by points and RB1 by value on FanDuel, he should be an excellent source of DFS scoring, though the Saints have been stout against the run at just 4.0 yards allowed per rush attempt.
Ollie Gordon II adds depth to the backfield, ranking as RB33 by points and RB31 by value on DraftKings and RB32 by points and RB28 by value on FanDuel. He averages 4.5 rushing attempts per game with 3.3 yards per carry. Gordon II averages 2.0 yards after contact per attempt but his light involvement is cause for concern even as a total dart throw at a cheap touchdown. Jaylen Wright rounds out the rushing options, ranking as RB41 by points and RB41 by value on DraftKings and RB41 by points and RB41 by value on FanDuel. He averages 3.8 attempts per game and 3.3 yards per carry and has very little value on this slate.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Jaylen Waddle serves as the primary perimeter threat, ranking as WR5 by points and WR6 by value on DraftKings and WR4 by points and WR3 by value on FanDuel on the Week 13 main slate and looking like a contributor. Waddle draws a 22.8% target share and is highly efficient, delivering a phenomenal 2.39 yards per route run. Waddle operates as the deep threat for the unit, averaging an average depth of target of 13.2 yards and accounting for 43.03% of the team air yards in the season-long absence of Tyreek Hill. The receiver is also dangerous with the ball in his hands, averaging 4.1 yards after the catch per reception, though that is in truth good for just 0.2 yards over expectation after each catch. Waddle has five touchdown catches to lead this group, he is the top option for scuffling Tagovailoa.
Malik Washington provides a complementary pass-catching option, ranking as WR37 by points and WR43 by value on DraftKings and WR34 by points and WR33 by value on FanDuel. Washington earns a 14.7% target share but averages just 0.97 yards per route run. His role is closer to the line of scrimmage with a 4.5-yard average depth of target, his 5.9 yards after the catch per reception are good for 0.7 yards over expectation per catch but that does not amount to much for DFS scoring unless he falls into the end zone, a feat he has managed just two times.
Darren Waller is questionable but has been activated from IR after missing the last four games. Waller offers a veteran presence at tight end but ranks as just TE16 by points and TE23 by value on DraftKings and TE15 by points and TE9 by value on FanDuel. In the four games he managed to play, Waller saw just a 3.8% target share and averaged 1.58 yards per route run, though he was consistenly operating downfield for his position at an average depth of target of 11.1 yards. Waller caught four touchdown passes in his first three games in Miami, his return will give Tagovailoa another option in the passing game and DFS gamers a viable +2 if they choose to depart from the Tua+Achane+Waddle approach. Waller offers standalone potential as well, if he plays a few big catches and a touchdown would not be at all surprising.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a depth option who ranks as WR55 by points and WR55 by value on DraftKings and WR58 by points and WR58 by value on FanDuel. He sees limited opportunity with a 5.9% target share on 17.3 routes per game and averages a lousy 0.47 yards per route run.
The Dolphins offense enters the week with a bit of stack appeal, particularly if Waller returns to give them a bit more depth. Miami currently ranks as Stack 4 by points and Stack 5 in value on DraftKings while claiming the Stack 3 spot for points and the Stack 1 spot for value on FanDuel. The matchup heavily favors the passing game, as the Saints defense presents a stark contrast in efficiency. The unit is steady against the run, ranking ninth in yards allowed per rush attempt and holding opponents to 4.0 yards per carry. However, the secondary ranks 25th in yards allowed per pass attempt, surrendering 7.4 yards per dropback, which sets up a potential ceiling performance for the aerial attack focused on the excellent Waddle, Achane out of the backfield, and whatever Waller can muster.
Minnesota Vikings
Game Total: 41.0 / MIN +13.0 (14.0)
Offense: 39.16% rush / 60.84% pass / 20.4 ppg / 4.7 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.8 ypa rush / 6.2 ypa pass / 19.7 ppg / 8.02% sack / 2.18% int
Key Player: Max Brosmer
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones Sr. (on/off), Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Jordan Mason (on/off), Jalen Nailor, Josh Oliver (on/off), Adam Thielen (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker III (on/off), Cooper Kupp, Rashid Shaheed, Zach Charbonnet (on/off), AJ Barner, Elijah Arroyo (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Unheralded rookie Max Brosmer steps in at quarterback for Minnesota this week with widespread rumors of a “soft benching” for underperforming JJ McCarthy in the guise of an injury. Brosmer slots in ranking as QB19 by points but QB5 by value on DraftKings and QB18 by points and QB11 by value on FanDuel at $4,900 and $6,900 respectively. The rookie faces a daunting task against a top-tier pass defense that allows very little efficiency through the air at just 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Seattle’s defense has 36 sacks and a 29.0% pressure rate that should keep the rookie either on the run or on the ground. There is minor GPP appeal in cheap skinny Brosmer + Jefferson + a wish stacks but the odds are not in their favor. Make no mistake, while he is at a cheap price with a few good weapons on his side, this is an undrafted rookie quarterback and the “break glass in case of emergency” option for Minnesota, the team does not suddenly believe in the player and neither should the DFS community outside of appropriate value draws.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones Sr. leads the backfield but ranks as only RB18 by points and RB16 by value on DraftKings and RB18 by points and RB18 by value on FanDuel. The volume has been light this season, Jones Sr. handles 8.7 rushing attempts per game, but puts up a strong 4.9 yards per carry. Jones Sr. displays explosiveness with an 8.20% explosive run rate and a broken tackle rate of 4.92%, while creating 1.9 yards after contact per attempt, but he has only scored once on the ground and once in the passing game this season.
Jordan Mason provides depth, ranking as RB32 by points and RB34 by value on DraftKings and RB31 by points and RB31 by value on FanDuel. The explosive backup averages 10.5 rushing attempts per game and 4.6 yards per carry but the volume cuts into the value. Mason runs with quality and efficiency, posting a 10.34% explosive run rate and a 7.76% broken tackle rate, while averaging 2.1 yards after contact per attempt, his gains are good for 0.8 yards over expectation per rush attempt and he has five rushing touchdowns on the year. Mason is a quality back stuck in a bad situation against a good rush defense, we will pass.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Justin Jefferson remains the focal point of the passing attack, though the quality of the attack is highly questionable. Jefferson ranks as WR10 by points and WR28 by value on DraftKings and WR10 by points and WR26 by value on FanDuel. He still commands a dominant 30.5% target share and is highly effective, averaging 2.03 yards per route run for the season but his scoring has been limited to just two touchdown catches on the year, which is not commensurate with price or expectations. Jefferson operates as the primary downfield option with an 11.4-yard average depth of target, accounting for 38.55% of the team air yards. He is also dangerous after the catch, averaging 5.4 yards after the catch per reception, good for 0.8 yards over expectation per catch, but the high price and lack of scoring quality make the option a challenge.
Jordan Addison has been mediocre this season and is not much more than a wildcard with 1.39 yards per route run in mixed action this year. Addison slots into Week 13 ranking as WR31 by points and WR45 by value on DraftKings and WR32 by points and WR35 by value on FanDuel. He sees a 16.3% target share on his 37.1 routes per game and has three touchdown catches but the appeal with Brosmer at the helm is limited. Addison stretches the field with a 14.0-yard average depth of target, claiming 29.06% of the team air yards to keep him in scoring range, if the undrafted one can get the ball to that part of the field.
T.J. Hockenson provides a middling option at tight end, ranking as TE15 by points and TE16 by value on DraftKings and TE16 by points and TE16 by value on FanDuel. Hockenson is largely overrated, he earns a 15.7% target share but averages 0.88 yards per route run while working the short to intermediate areas with a 4.8-yard average depth of target. The tight end has two touchdown catches and could see a bit of a target uptick as a safety valve option but not much more.
Jalen Nailor adds another dimension to the passing game on a 13-yards ADOT for the year but he is currently ranking as WR65 by points and WR66 by value on DraftKings and WR66 by points and WR66 by value on FanDuel. He sees an 11.7% target share and has managed only 1.10 yards per route run and two touchdown catches, though some of that is the fault of a 52.63% catchable target rate from Vikings quarterbacks this season.
Josh Oliver rounds out the group, ranking as TE36 by points and TE36 by value on DraftKings and TE36 by points and TE37 by value on FanDuel. He averages 1.19 yards per route run on limited volume but has two cheap touchdown grabs and could help the young quarterback. Oliver is no more than a lousy dart throw in Week 13 DFS contests.
The Vikings offense faces a challenging matchup, ranking 18th in stack points and 20th in value on DraftKings while holding identical ranks on FanDuel. The Seahawks defense imposes a tough test on all fronts, particularly through the air where the undrafted rookie will be throwing the ball. The Seahawks rank second in yards allowed per pass attempt, stifling opposing quarterbacks to just 6.2 yards per dropback. The run defense is nearly as formidable, ranking third in yards allowed per rush attempt and giving up just 3.8 yards per carry. This is a very bad spot for all things Vikings, other than wild stabs at low-owned value.
New Orleans Saints
Game Total: 42.0 / NO +5.0 (18.5)
Offense: 39.97% rush / 60.03% pass / 15.0 ppg / 3.6 ypa rush / 6.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 24.5 ppg / 6.21% sack / 0.95% int
Key Player: Tyler Shough
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Chris Olave (Q), Devin Neal, Juwan Johnson, Devaughn Vele, Taysom Hill (on/off), Mason Tipton, Foster Moreau (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, Malik Washington, Darren Waller, Ollie Gordon II (on/off), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (on/off), Cedrick Wilson Jr. (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Another team with a rookie quarterback at the wheel, the Saints and Tyler Shough slot in as a playable option for value upside with a few good weapons in tow. The quarterback is just QB11 by points but he rockets to QB1 by value on DraftKings while landing as QB11 by points but a strong QB4 by value on FanDuel. Shough gets a crack at a Miami defense that has been abused throughout the season and he has at least one significant pass-catcher on his side. The rookie has been active, averaging 31.0 attempts and 20.3 completions per game. He averages 276.33 passing yards per game but just 6.6 per attempt to this point and has thrown three touchdowns with three interceptions in four appearances. Against a leaky pass defense for just $4,400 on DraftKings and $6,500 on FanDuel, there seem to be good reasons to chase a bit of value with the Saints quarterback in Week 13. With Alvin Kamara out of the way and value-based running back Devin Neal already providing upside in the passing game, the Shough +2 stacks build themselves.
Running Backs
Devin Neal is expected to operate as the primary back with veteran Alvin Kamara out of action. Neal slots in ranking as RB17 by points but RB8 by value on DraftKings and RB16 by points and RB8 by value on FanDuel, giving the Saints multiple clicks with top-10 value rankings at their position to help cut salary. Neal got into the mix when Kamar exited last week, carrying the ball seven times for 18 yards and picking up 43 more on 5-7 receiving. In limited season-long action, Neal gains just 3.6 yards per rush attempt with a 5.88% explosive run rate and zero touchdowns, but he only has to fend off Taysom Hill around the goal line and Audric Estime elsewhere.
Taysom Hill offers his unique versatility, ranking as TE24 by points and TE25 by value on DraftKings and TE21 by points and TE24 by value on FanDuel. He rushes 4.6 times per game but averages a terrible 2.2 yards per attempt and 1.5 yards after contact. In the passing game, he sees a 1.1% target share on 3.6 routes per game. Hill should be more involved with Kamara out but he is still difficult to nail down for anything like reliability.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Chris Olave headlines the receiving options, the target monster currently ranks as WR8 by points and WR14 by value on DraftKings and WR8 by points and WR7 by value on FanDuel, giving the Saints yet another major piece of points-per-dollar appeal on the blue site. Olave draws a sizable 29.0% target share and produces 1.83 yards per route run over a team-leading 36.5 routes per contest. The savvy route runner works effectively downfield with a 10.8-yard average depth of target and accounts for 37.88% of the team air yards with four touchdowns on the year. Olave was limited in practice with a back injury and is currently questionable but expected to suit up, if he is out there he is a major option for production. The receiver caught nine of 13 targets for 70 yards last week and had a five-catch game for 104 yards and a touchdown in the Week 10 game ahead of the team’s bye.
Juwan Johnson serves as the top tight end for New Orleans, he is a functional piece in stacks but ranks as just TE10 by points and TE17 by value on DraftKings and TE9 by points and TE13 by value on FanDuel, pushing him down the board by comparison to teammates. Johnson earns an 18.0% target share and averages 1.51 yards per route run, operating at a 7.4-yard average depth of target. The tight end has been inefficient after the catch, averaging 5.4 yards after the catch per reception for -0.4 yards over expectation.
Devaughn Vele adds depth at receiver, ranking as WR43 by points and WR33 by value on DraftKings and WR37 by points and WR34 by value on FanDuel. He sees just a 5.4% target share and averages 0.56 yards per route run despite an 11.2-yard average depth of target. Vele could get downfield and make a big play but he is merely a dart for that possibility against a bad defensive unit.
Mason Tipton contributes as another potential deep threat, ranking as WR52 by points and WR48 by value on DraftKings and WR52 by points and WR46 by value on FanDuel. He averages just 0.37 yards per route run but carries a deep 13.5-yard average depth of target that puts him in big play territory. Like Vele, Tipton offers no reliability but a touch of one-big-play GPP appeal.
Foster Moreau rounds out the tight end group, ranking as TE28 by points and TE28 by value on DraftKings and TE30 by points and TE29 by value on FanDuel. He averages 0.68 yards per route run on limited volume and is not a consideration outside of a very cheap low-probability dart at a touchdown grab.
The Saints offense ranks as just Stack 15 by points but Stack 7 in value on DraftKings while placing 14th in points and 7th in value on FanDuel. The Dolphins defense presents a split challenge, ranking ninth in yards allowed per rush attempt with 4.0 yards allowed per carry, but 25th in yards allowed per pass attempt, giving up 7.4 yards per pass attempt where they have been beat up by lesser receivers than Olave. The combination of scoring potential and massive value appeal put the Saints in a strong spot for GPP play, they can be stacked around a Shough+2 with Neal and Olave while affording the ability to pile on elite skill players in the remaining lineup spots.
New York Jets
Game Total: 38.5 / NYJ +3.0 (17.75)
Offense: 47.38% rush / 52.62% pass / 19.9 ppg / 4.9 ypa rush / 6.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 22.6 ppg / 10.63% sack / 2.74% int
Key Player: Tyrod Taylor
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell, Mason Taylor, John Metchie III, Allen Lazard (Q; large field), Isaiah Davis (on/off), Arian Smith (large field), Jeremy Ruckert (large field; on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Bijan Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts Sr., Tyler Allgeier (on/off), David Sills V, Dylan Drummond (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Running Backs
Receivers & Tight Ends
Pittsburgh Steelers
Game Total: 46.0 / PIT +3.0 (21.5)
Offense: 42.47% rush / 57.53% pass / 24.9 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass
oppDEF: 5.3 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 22.9 ppg / 7.93% sack / 2.32% int
Key Player: Aaron Rodgers
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Kenneth Gainwell (on/off), Pat Freiermuth, Calvin Austin III, Jonnu Smith (on/off), Roman Wilson, Darnell Washington (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: James Cook III, Khalil Shakir, Joshua Palmer, Keon Coleman, Dawson Knox, Ty Johnson (on/off), Gabe Davis, Tyrell Shavers, Jackson Hawes (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Running Backs
Receivers & Tight Ends
Seattle Seahawks
Game Total: 41.0 / SEA -13.0 (27.0)
Offense: 51.09% rush / 48.91% pass / 29.5 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 9.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass / 23.2 ppg / 8.11% sack / 0.98% int
Key Player: Sam Darnold
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker III (on/off), Cooper Kupp, Rashid Shaheed, Zach Charbonnet (on/off), AJ Barner, Elijah Arroyo (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones Sr. (on/off), Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Jordan Mason (on/off), Jalen Nailor, Josh Oliver (on/off), Adam Thielen (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Running Backs
Receivers & Tight Ends
San Francisco 49ers
Game Total: 35.5 / SF -5.5 (20.5)
Offense: 43.13% rush / 56.87% pass / 23.4 ppg / 3.6 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.8 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 22.2 ppg / 12.14% sack / 2.96% int
Key Player: Brock Purdy
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, Brian Robinson Jr., Demarcus Robinson (large field), Kyle Juszczyk (large field; on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Quinshon Judkins, Jerry Jeudy, Harold Fannin Jr., Cedric Tillman, David Njoku, Isaiah Bond (large field), Malachi Corely (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Running Backs
Receivers & Tight Ends
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game Total: 44.5 / TB -3.5 (24.0)
Offense: 42.40% rush / 57.60% pass / 23.5 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 25.7 ppg / 5.57% sack / 2.41% int
Key Player: Baker Mayfield (Q)
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Bucky Irving (Q), Emeka Egbuka, Cade Otton, Chris Godwin Jr., Rachaad White (on/off), Tez Johnson, Sterling Shepard, Sean Tucker (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Zonovan Knight (on/off), Greg Dortch, Michael Carter (on/off), Elijah Higgins (large field; on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Running Backs
Receivers & Tight Ends
Tennessee Titans
Game Total: 42.0 / TEN +6.0 (18.0)
Offense: 34.63% rush / 65.37% pass / 15.2 ppg / 3.8 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.9 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 22.7 ppg / 4.79% sack / 3.12% pass
Key Player: Cam Ward
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Tony Pollard (on/off), Tyjae Spears (on/off), Elic Ayomanor (Q), Chimere Dike, Gunnar Helm, Chig Okonkwo (Q), Van Jefferson, James Proche II (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Travis Etienne Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Brenton Strange, Parker Washington, Bhayshul Tuten (on/off), Dyami Brown (large field)
Game Notes: Elic Ayomanor is now reportedly likely to play
Quarterback
Running Backs
Receivers & Tight Ends
