NFL DFS – Main Slate Optimizer Groups & Stack Rankings + Game Notes (complete) – Championship Round

This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.

This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video

All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io

Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.

2024 Championship Round Main Slate DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings

The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.

Championship Round DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slate NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups

Overview

Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.

Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.

DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options

Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.

Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.

Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.

FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.

Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.

Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.

DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules

This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.

• QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
• optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
• QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)

Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements

Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.

• Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
• Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
• optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)

We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.

Sunday Updates

Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.

NFL DFS Championship Round Main Slate Features & FREE Projections

• Championship Round Main Slate Projections
• Championship Round Main Slate Quarterback Scoring & Value Rankings
• Championship Round Main Slate Running Back Scoring & Value Rankings
• Championship Round Main Slate Pass-Catcher Scoring & Value Rankings
• Championship Round Main Slate Defense Scoring & Value Rankings

Construction Concept

Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.

Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Championship Round Main Slate

The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.

The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.

Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when a situation has an extremely highly projected running back that does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.

Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams

*Statistics provided are end of regular season numbers

Buffalo Bills

Game Total: 48.5 / BUF +1.5 (23.5 imp)

Plays: 49.39% rush / 50.61% pass / 30.7 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.2 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 18.9 ppg / 7.30% sack / 2.18% int

Key Player: Josh Allen

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Amari Cooper, Curtis Samuel, Ray Davis (on/off), Ty Johnson (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, Kareem Hunt, Isiah Pacheco, DeAndre Hopkins, Noah Gray, Samaje Perine (on/off)

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Josh Allen won the showdown between the presumptive top-two MVP candidates in the Divisional Round with a lukewarm passing performance but a strong day for DFS scoring. Allen threw just 22 passes, six off his season average of 28.1 attempts, though his 16 completions were only two shy of his average. Allen did not throw a touchdown pass and managed just 5.8 yards per attempt, totaling 127 yards through the air with another 20 coming on his 10 rushing attempts. Allen’s scoring came entirely through his efforts at the goal line, where he punched in two rushing touchdowns. Allen scored a dozen times on the ground during the regular season, the output in that department was not surprising but the lack of passing quality represented a gigantic dip from expectations. Allen should bounce back with more attempts and yardage in the Championship Round but he will be facing a challenging Kansas City defense that carried a 7.30% sack rate on aggressive pressure throughout the season. Allen drops into the slate as QB1 by fantasy points on both sites, he is QB3 by value on DraftKings and QB2 by value on FanDuel after a season in which he threw 28 touchdowns against only six interceptions. The Bills are ranked third out of four teams as a stack this week but Allen stands out for quality at the quarterback position

Running Backs

James Cook gained 67 yards on the ground over 17 carries and had another 15 from catching all three of his targets in the Divisional Round game but he failed to score or make much of a DFS scoring dent. Cook was far better against Denver in the Wild Card game, gaining 120 yards on 23 carries and scoring a rushing touchdown for the fifth straight game. Cook had 16 rushing touchdowns and gained 4.9 yards per attempt on 12.9 carries in the ultra-efficient Bills offense, he is a solid option on the short slate but typically requires a touchdown to get over the top for scoring

Ray Davis poached a rushing touchdown in last week’s game, scoring on one of just four carries over the five snaps that he played with the offense. Davis gained 29 yards last week but had only one carry over the same five snaps and gained just three yards in the Wild Card game. Davis is a longshot for scoring in his limited action this week

Ty Johnson is the more involved of the Bills backup running backs, he slots in as RB8 by points and value on both sites. Johnson caught his lone target for eight yards last week and picked up 31 yards on five carries over 20 snaps with the offense. The week before, Johnson carried the ball nine times over 33 snaps and caught two of two targets for 26 yards and a touchdown in a strong value-based performance. The running back is likely to by pass Davis in projections and rankings in the next update on the sheer expectation of volume

Receivers & Tight Ends

Khalil Shakir managed to gain 67 yards on six catches from seven targets, accounting for half of the Bills gains through the air in the Divisional Round. Shakir caught six passes for 61 yards the week before, failing to score in either of the playoff games. The wideout has ability all over the field but typically sees shorter targets with a 5.5-yard average depth, his team leading 6.7 targets per game led to just an 11.75% air yards share during the regular season but Shakir has outstanding hands and is capable of uncorking a big play for added gains or simply getting there on volume. Shakir is a playable WR5/5 on DraftKings, he looks stronger on FanDuel as WR4 by points and WR2 by value

Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper slot in as lower-end receiver options who could see big upticks in production if the Bills choose to involve them to keep the busy Chiefs defense off beat. Coleman was targeted just once over 39 snaps with the offense last week and three times in 42 snaps the week before, Cooper was involved to the same degree on fewer snaps, drawing one target over 19 snaps last week and three over 25 the week before. Neither receiver has been relevant to the offense since Week 17 when they both scored a touchdown on limited volume and yardage production, they could hit the board similarly this week or one could outpace the other by a wide margin

Dalton Kincaid has lost snaps since returning in Week 15, getting out-snapped by Dawson Knox in every game since. Kincaid is still the more targeted receiver overall but he saw just two chances last week, catching one pass for 11 yards and failing to score. In the Divisional game he had three catches and gained 47 yards while playing just 28 snaps with the offense. Knox, meanwhile, gained 38 yards on two catches over three targets in that game and zero yards on one of two catches in last week’s contest. Knox has not scored a touchdown since Week 6 but he drew a red zone target in two of his last three games. Kincaid is TE4/2 on DraftKings and TE4/4 on FanDuel while Knox slots in as TE5/5 across the board

Curtis Samuel is WR12/9 on DraftKings and WR12/13 on FanDuel while Mack Hollins is WR13/13 on DraftKings but WR11/11 on FanDuel, illustrating the slight difference in catch projection for the two players. Hollins is a home run threat in the offense, drawing a 13.92% air yards share on an 11.1-yard average depth of target but seeing just 2.9 targets per game, he turned the limited opportunities into five touchdown catches to lead the active Bills receiving group during the regular season. Samuel sees 3.3 targets per game but scored only once and works mostly underneath with a 4.6-yard ADOT. Between the two, Hollins is the more appealing DFS dart throw but both are limited opportunity plays. Samuel broke a big play in the Wild Card round, scoring while gaining 68 yards on three catches over his three targets, in last week’s game he dipped to nine yards on two catches over two targets and did not score. Hollins had one catch for 12 yards last week and one for 19 yards the week before, seeing two targets in each game, he has not scored since Week 14

The Bills are stack 3 by points and Stack 3 by value on both sites for this week’s short slate, Allen is the strongest individual play and the team could easily be seen as a source of skinny stacks with Allen+1 or with Allen+Cook+1 to capture the premium rushing touchdown upside

Kansas City Chiefs

Game Total: 48.5 / KC -1.5 (25.0 imp)

Plays: 41.37% rush / 58.63% pass / 22.7 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 21.1 ppg / 6.43% sack / 2.72% int

Key Player: Patrick Mahomes

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, Kareem Hunt, Isiah Pacheco, DeAndre Hopkins, Noah Gray, Samaje Perine (on/off), JuJu Smith-Schuster, Justin Watson

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Amari Cooper, Curtis Samuel, Ray Davis (on/off), Ty Johnson (on/off)

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes is QB2 by points and QB1 by value on both sites this week. Mahomes is a slight favorite in yet another Championship Game but he helms the slate’s lowest-scoring offense by several points per game. Kansas City managed just 22.7 points per game while gaining a mere 3.9 yards per pass and 6.8 yards per rush attempt this season, mediocre results for a team with both lofty expectations and strangely matching results. Mahomes threw for 245.5 yards per game through volume, his 36.31 attempts per game and 58.63% overall pass volume are both slate-leading marks, pushing his DFS scoring potential somewhat. The quarterback connected for just 26 touchdown passes this season, one fewer than last season’s total, with both seasons representing a major step down from the days of 37-50 touchdown passes per season. Mahomes ran the ball in just twice, gaining 5.3 yards per rush attempt over limited opportunities on the ground this season, he ran the ball seven times but gained only 14 yards in the Divisional Round game last week. The Chiefs won without a vintage Mahomes performance, he managed just 177 yards and one touchdown pass while avoiding an interception and throwing the ball just 25 times. Mahomes is still a strong option on the short slate, if one assumes steady passing volume, if he fails to throw 32 or more passes the play is greatly diminished

Running Backs

Kareem Hunt steps in as RB3/3 across sites. The running back is coming off of a playoff performance in which he carried the ball only eight times over 24 snaps but gained 44 yards and scored a rushing touchdown. Hunt missed Week 18 but the touchdown was his third in his last three games despite seeing no more than 11 snaps, with single-digit snap counts in two of the three outings. Hunt is an interesting option with touchdown-scoring upside at a fair price on either site, he is easy to reach but does see competition for touches in the backfield

Isiah Pacheco was the clear second-stringer in last week’s game, carrying the ball just five times for 18 yards over 15 snaps with the offense. Pacheco lands as RB6/6 across both sites this week but that is more reflective of the lack of quality options on the short slate than it is of his upside

Samaje Perine is RB10/10 across sites with limited expectations of volume. Perine saw 1.2 carries and 2.1 targets per game this season, gaining 9.2 yards per target and scoring once on the ground and once through the air. The running back is no more than a very thin dart at a very cheap price, he is unlikely to contribute but any scoring would be done at very limited public popularity on a very thin slate

Receivers & Tight Ends

Travis Kelce was simply waiting for the big stage all season. The veteran tight end roared to life with his best game of the year in the Divisonal Round, catching seven of eight targets for 117 yards and a touchdown and drawing another two red zone targets. As was featured in this space last week, despite his limited output of only three touchdowns during the regular season, Kelce saw five more red zone targets than any other tight end in football and was third overall in red zone chances behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja’Marr Chase. Kelce is a very high-end option on this slate, his skillset and scoring potential are offset from every other option at the position, though Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz can provide reasonable competition. Kelce should be highly utilized across sites both by readers and the public at large, sometimes it is just best to differentiate in other ways

Xavier Worthy is WR3 by points and WR2 by value on DraftKings, he is WR2 by points and WR1 by value on the FanDuel slate, putting the top two value options at the position on opposing sides of this game on the blue site. Worthy and Khalil Shakir as a back-and-forth duo are an interesting approach to extracting fairly priced probability of production from this contest. Worthy caught six touchdowns during the regular season, leading the active group of Chiefs pass-catchers. The receiver is an explosive weapon who can get open downfield or break a big play on a short-yardage target. Worthy drew a 9.2-yard ADOT and garnered 23.49% of the team’s air yards over his 5.8 targets per game this season, adding quality on the ground with three rushing touchdowns on big gains. Worthy adds big play potential and a strong +2 option for stacking, he is a viable standalone option as well

Hollywood Brown and DeAndre Hopkins slot in as two accomplished veteran receivers with little to work with this season. Brown was barely involved, he played Weeks 16 and 17 and last week’s Divisional game, catching nine passes for 91 yards on 15 targets over the two regular season contests but failing to secure either of his targets in the playoff contest. Hopkins caught 41 passes while with the Chiefs, scoring four times in the 10 games and averaging 8.2 yards per target. The receiver played just 15 snaps with the offense last week and failed to catch his lone target. Hopkins was targeted just four times in each of the last two games of the regular season and has not scored a touchdown since Week 14. Brown lands as WR6 by points but WR1 as a cheap value bomb on DraftKings, he is WR6/4 on FanDuel while Hopkins is WR9/10 and WR10/10 across sites

Noah Gray is an interesting mixer at the tight end position. With Kelce on the field we know where the volume goes but Gray still manages to get involved in the offense with a few looks each week, including in the red zone. In addition to Kelce’s robust targeting inside the 20, Gray added another 10 red zone targets during the regular season, highlighting the degree to which this team values the position in scoring territory. Kelce and Gray make for an interesting pairing for differentiation, while they would almost certainly both need a touchdown to truly make value that is not an overly bold stretch as DFS plays go, and the combination is sure to be unpopular

The Chiefs are Stack 2 by points and Stack 1 by value on both sites this week. Throwing a blanket over tight end touchdowns on the Chiefs and rushing touchdowns on the Bills is an interesting approach to this game, with the added bonus of the two top shelf value wide receivers and solid depth charts on both sides

Philadelphia Eagles

Game Total: 47.5 / PHI -6.0 (26.75 imp)

Plays: 55.93% rush / 44.07% pass / 27.0 ppg / 5.1  ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 23.3 ppg / 7.63% sack / 1.97% int

Key Player: Jalen Hurts

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Kenneth Gainwell (on/off), Jahan Dotson, Johnny Wilson (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, Jamison Crowder

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts came through last week’s win a bit worse for wear with a knee injury that caused him to be limited in practice earlier this week and will reportedly put him in a knee brace for this contest. The degree to which the Eagles press their luck with their quarterback is anyone’s guess, picking him up and shoving him through a wall of human meat is typically this team’s favorite way to score after all. Hurts picked up 14 rushing touchdowns this season, his fourth straight year of double-digit scores on the ground. The quarterback also threw 18 touchdown passes against only five interceptions while gaining an excellent 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Hurts is a capable passer when called upon but the Eagles get most of their work done on the ground, giving star receiver AJ Brown time to catch up on sideline reading. Hurts slots in as QB3 by points on both sites, he is QB2 by value on DraftKings and QB3 by value on FanDuel but he also carries a top-five ceiling on this slate

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley has the highest projection on this slate and one of the top marks of the entire season and, yes, we recognize that this is a playoff game. Barkley is simply too good, too productive, and sees too much volume to downgrade his potential in any way against a defense that yielded 4.9 yards per rush attempt this season, the 30th-ranked mark in football. Washington allowed 1.1 rushing touchdowns per game, ranking 21st in scoring allowed on the ground. This is a premium opponent for running backs to face, while Barkley does see some threat for poached touchdowns from his own quarterback, his scoring upside is extremely strong and he could lead the slate on yardage via opportunity alone. If Hurts is truly limited it will benefit Barkley in every conceivable scoring situation. Barkley is RB1 across the board on both sites, he is player 1 across the board on both sites, and he is click 1 across the board on both sites, he is extraordinarily likely to be in the winning lineup this week

Kenneth Gainwell is loosely playable on a short slate but there is not much expectation outside of broken plays or garbage-time scoring in a blowout. The running back is RB9 across the board and he had just one rushing touchdown during the regular season while seeing very light volume behind the workhorse superstar. Gainwell carried the ball once for 10 yards and caught his lone target for another 10 while playing six snaps with the offense last week, in the Wild Card round he carried the ball three times for 14 yards over 10 snaps

Receivers & Tight Ends

AJ Brown caught seven touchdowns this season, landing second on the team behind running mate DeVonta Smith, though Brown still remains the more appealing of the duo. The star receiver carried a 36.11% air yards share this season, second-highest on the slate behind Terry McLaurin on the other side of this contest. Brown’s 7.5 targets per game rank second overall on the slate behind Travis Kelce and first among wide receivers, he remains a weapon in the passing game despite recent limitations. Brown has just three catches over the team’s two playoff games despite playing 53 and 60 snaps respectively. The receiver caught one of three targets for 10 yards in the Wild Card matchup and two of seven targets for 14 yards last week. Brown ended the season with touchdowns in three straight games, two of which were eight-catch performances with one going for 110 yards and the other for 97, in the third contest he caught only three passes for 36 yards but still found the end zone. Brown’s 12.1-yard average depth of target and desire to get back into the offense could lead to big things in this matchup, he should not be ignored as WR1 by points on both sites, though he does dip to WR4 by value on DraftKings and WR3 by value on FanDuel

DeVonta Smith caught 5.2 of 6.8 targets per game for 9.4 yards per target and eight touchdowns during the regular season, leading the team in touchdown receptions. Smith saw a solid 25.01% air yards share over the steady volume, his 9.1-yard average depth of target regularly puts him in big scoring play territory but his volume has also seen a downturn with the team leaning into the run. Smith caught all four of his targets in each of the team’s two playoff games but failed to score in either. The receiver had a big Week 17, posting 120 yards and a pair of touchdowns on six catches over seven targets, he caught six of eight for 51 yards the week before and had four touchdowns over his last four games. Smith is a strong play as WR4/6 on DraftKings and WR5/6 on FanDuel, he is likely to go under-owned compared to teammates

Dallas Goedert missed two practices with an ankle issue this week but he is off of the injury report and at full strength going into Sunday morning. Goedert has been strong in the playoffs, he caught all four of his targets and gained 56 yards in last week’s game and caught four of six for 47 yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card contest, making big plays in both games. The tight end slots in alongside Zach Ertz on a tier below Travis Kelce for this slate, he is TE2 by points and TE4 by value on DraftKings and TE3/3 on the FanDuel slate

Jahan Dotson is the team’s third wide receiver option, he sees more involvement than the deeper dart throws but only marginally. Dotson had zero touchdowns during the regular season but frustrated DFS gamers in the team’s first playoff game with one catch for 11 yards and a crucial touchdown on his two targets. Dotson did catch seven passes for 94 yards on 11 targets in Week 18 but that was with all of the team’s starters sitting, he is a very low-end dart who only outpaces other options below him

The Eagles are Stack 1 by points, again, begrudgingly, in this Giants fan’s projections, they are Stack 2 by value across sites and should be widely owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel in multiple stack configurations and as standalone options in every other combination of lineups. It cannot be stressed enough how likely a DFS contributor Saquon Barkley is going into this slate

Washington Commanders

Game Total: 47.5 / WAS +6.0 (20.75 imp)

Plays: 48.35% rush / 51.65% pass / 29.1 ppg / 4.8 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.1 ypa pass / 17.6 ppg / 7.20% sack / 2.58% int

Key Player: Jayden Daniels

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, Jamison Crowder

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Kenneth Gainwell (on/off), Jahan Dotson

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Jayden Daniels managed the unexpected with yet another victory in an outstanding rookie season that he will now try to push to the Super Bowl. The Commanders slot in as the bottom-ranked team on our board against a terrific Eagles defense and a strong Eagles offense, they are the low point of the slate as six-point underdogs with a 20.75-point implied team total. Of course, that mark sits far below the team’s 29.1 points per game from the regular season and one gets the feeling that this Commanders team as a group would be last to care. Washington has simply had something going all season, while that is one of the more unquantifiable things that will ever be written on this site, there is no denying that the team has outperformed their current talent level at every skill position on the back of the rookie phenom’s performance. Daniels threw 25 regular season touchdowns against just nine interceptions, adding six scores on the ground, as the pressure mounted he rose to the occasion each time. The Commanders are still playing with house money and it is usually right when one starts to believe they will walk out a winner that the walls come crashing down, but it is difficult to deny the back-t0-back 250+ yards (269 and 299) and two touchdown performances in playoff games that the quarterback has posted over the past two weeks. Daniels is QB4 across the board on both sites but his ceiling rivals that of anyone on the slate and he is entirely playable

Running Backs

Brian Robinson Jr. checks in as RB4 by points on both sites, he is RB5 by value across both DraftKings and FanDuel, not ideal marks on a slate with only four teams. Robinson Jr. scored eight rushing touchdowns this season, gaining 4.3 yards per rush attempt in the process. The running back was effective but not special, he gained 2.0 yards before and 2.3 yards after contact and posting just four runs of more than 20 yards for the season, two of which came in the same game in Week 2. Robinson did see steady involvement in the passing game with 1.8 targets per contest but only managed 6.4 yards per target and did not score, he also sees competition for running back targets in this offense

Austin Ekeler drew 3.4 targets per game during the regular season, gaining 8.9 yards per target but he did not find the end zone on a reception. Ekeler did manage to punch the ball in four times on the ground, scoring half the touchdowns in 77 attempts that Robinson Jr. provided in 187 and outpacing the younger running back with 4.8 yards per rush attempt. Robinson Jr. was actually third in that department, his 4.3 yards per attempt also sits behind the 4.7 posted by third-string Jeremy McNichols who has explosive ability and four regular season touchdowns but is unlikely to see volume

Receivers & Tight Ends

Terry McLaurin leads not only the Commanders but the entire slate (among likely options) in both air yards share and average depth of target. McLaurin garnered an extreme 40.34% of the Washington air yards this season, putting him not only on the weekly fantasy radar but also probably hitting the board at Dulles. The receiver-quarterback pairing connected for 13 touchdowns this season and one in each of the team’s playoff games. McLaurin caught seven of 10 balls for 89 yards and a score in the Wild Card game and four of six for 87 and a touchdown in last week’s contest, he is WR2 by points but WR7 by value on DraftKings and WR3/5 on the FanDuel slate, the only thing in his way is an aggressive price

Zach Ertz is TE3/3 on DraftKings and TE2/2 on FanDuel. The veteran caught seven touchdowns this season, ranking second among active Commanders pass-catchers while missing a handful of games. Ertz averaged 7.2 yards per target with 5.4 chances per game, he is a heavily-involved receiver who should compete with Dallas Goedert for the mantle of second-best tight end option on this slate. Ertz caught all five of his targets last week but gained only 28 yards, his touchdown catch put scoring into the required territory however, a feat he could easily replicate despite a strong defensive opponent

Dyami Brown has emerged in a big way late in the season. Brown is WR8 across the board on both sites this week despite checking in with one touchdown catch on 2.5 targets per game for the regular season. Brown stepped forward when fellow receiver Noah Brown was felled by injury, seeing an uptick to four or five targets in each of the team’s final few games, but he truly took a leap in the playoffs. Brown caught five of five targets for 89 yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card game, he did not find the end zone last week but still posted 98 yards on six catches over eight targets, including a pair of plays over 20 yards with one going for more than 40

Olamide Zaccheaus also stepped up late in the season, his target volume spiked in Weeks 16 and 17 with eight and nine targets respectively. Zaccheaus caught five passes for 70 yards and two touchdowns in the Week 16 game and added eight catches for 85 yards and another score the following week but his production dwindled over the past three games. The receiver caught two passes for 51 yards on five targets over his 38 snaps in a fully-engaged Week 18 contest before dipping to three targets, catching all three for 19 yards, in the Wild Card game and only two, neither of which were caught, in last week’s game. Zaccheaus is WR11/11 and WR9/9 across sites, he has explosive play ability and could see an uptick but he would need a bit of unexpected help to truly bend the slate

The Commanders are Stack 4/4 on both sites today but the short slate puts everyone on somewhat even footing where minor price and opportunity differences can have a major impact, all of the team’s regulars are, at worst, playable even against a solid defense

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