This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.
This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video
All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io
Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning
Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.
Wild Card Round DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups
Overview
Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.
Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.
DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options
Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.
Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.
Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.
FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.
Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.
Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.
DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules
This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.
- QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
- optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
- QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)
Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements
Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.
- Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
- Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
- optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)
We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.
Sunday Updates
Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.
NFL DFS Wild Card Round Features & FREE Projections
- Wild Card Round Sunday Projections
- Wild Card Round Sunday Above/Below
- Wild Card Round Sunday Quarterback Scoring & Value Rankings
- Wild Card Round Sunday Running Back Scoring & Value Rankings
- Wild Card Round Sunday Pass-Catcher Scoring & Value Rankings
- Wild Card Round Sunday Defense Scoring & Value Rankings
Construction Concept
Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.
Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Wild Card Round
The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.
The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.
Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when a situation has an extremely highly projected running back that does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.
Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams
For a three-game slate some of the above rules can be relaxed or removed to ensure full coverage of lineup combinations, we would recommend allowing one or two players against a defense, for example.
Buffalo Bills
Game Total: 47.0 / BUF -8.5 (27.75 imp)
Plays: 47.9% rush / 52.1% pass / 30.9 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.9 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 18.3 ppg / 9.42% sack / 2.48% int
Key Player: Josh Allen
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Amari Cooper, Ray Davis (on/off), Mack Hollins, Dawson Knox (on/off), Ty Johnson (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Courtland Sutton, Jaleel McLaughlin, Marvin Mims Jr., Javonte Williams, Troy Franklin, Audric Estime (on/off), Devaughn Vele, Lil’Jordan Humphrey
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Josh Allen checks into the Sunday slate as QB1 by points on both sites, which should surprise no one. Allen is QB5 by points-per-dollar value on his inflated DraftKings price tag but that does not change his playability, simply his overall cost. On FanDuel, the Bills signal-caller is QB2 by value, he is a top shelf play across the board coming off a regular season that included 28 touchdown passes against only six interceptions while averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Allen also ran the ball in for touchdowns a dozen times this season, he is the only quarterback whose individual touchdown production comes close to rivaling that of Jalen Hurts when it comes to goal line scoring. Allen is a rock-solid option with several competent skill players to stack
Running Backs
James Cook is easily the lead running back option as RB3/3 on DraftKings and RB4/4 on FanDuel on Sunday morning. Cook scored 16 times on the ground this season and caught two touchdown passes, his scoring upside is excellent for the position and he takes advantage of the Bills leaving big plays just short of the goal line with regularity. Cook is not the highest-volume player on the slate, he carries the ball 12.9 times per game and sees another 2.4 opportunities via targets in the passing attack, but 13.3 potential touches is well short of our threshold of 20 opportunities, his touchdown equity makes up for the lack of overall chances
Ray Davis and Ty Johnson are mix-in options with involvement in the passing game, neither is the option that Justice Hill was on yesterday’s slate as a backup running back but they did account for a combined 10 touchdowns this season. Davis ran the ball in three times and caught another three touchdown passes while Johnson had three receiving touchdowns and one rushing score, some of the work came in weeks that Cooks missed
Receivers & Tight Ends
Khalil Shakir has dynamite hands but needs volume to deliver fantasy production, given his limiting 5.5-yard average depth of target and 11.75% air yards share. Shakir requires red zone targets or broken plays to get into the end zone, he had four touchdown receptions on the year despite leading the team with 6.7 targets and 5.1 catches per game
Dalton Kincaid slots in as TE3/TE3 on DraftKings and TE4/TE3 on FanDuel after seeing 5.8 targets per game through the regular season. Like all Bills pass-catchers, Kincaid was a bit underwhelming for touchdown scoring, he had only two catches for scores this season but he rates well on a slate that is limited for talent at the tight end position
Keon Coleman had a fair year, catching 2.2 of 4.4 targets per game for 9.8 yards per target and four touchdowns. Coleman led the Bills with a strong 15.2-yard average depth of target that puts him in big play quick-strike territory and cuts down on his need for significant opportunity volume. Coleman is WR11/10 and WR12/12 across sites as a playable option from an affordable tier of receivers
Amari Cooper would not surprise with a big game today. Cooper has been mostly quiet since joining the Bills midseason, he ended the year with four touchdowns overall and had a 12.3-yard average depth of target and 24.89% air yards share combined across his two teams, but his impact has been minimal and volume has gone in the wrong direction in recent weeks. Cooper did score in Week 17 before sitting for the final week of the season, he caught three of three targets for 56 yards and a touchdown against the Jets and could easily repeat that performance with a cherry on top
Mack Hollins is better than a lottery ticket while still ranking outside of the top-15 on the short slate. Hollins is WR17/18 and WR17/17 across sites. The receiver is another deep strike option for Buffalo on his 11.1-yard average depth of target, he led the Bills receiving group with five touchdown catches on the season despite seeing just 2.9 targets per game
Dawson Knox and Curtis Samuel are on/off darts in lineup building, either could see a crucial target or two but expectations and probability are low for both players
Denver Broncos
Game Total: 47.0 / DEN +8.5 (19.25 imp)
Plays: 43.7% rush / 56.3% pass / 25.0 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 21.6 ppg / 6.32% sack / 2.77% int
Key Player: Bo Nix
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Courtland Sutton, Jaleel McLaughlin, Marvin Mims Jr., Javonte Williams, Troy Franklin, Audric Estime (on/off), Devaughn Vele, Lil’Jordan Humphrey
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Amari Cooper, Ray Davis (on/off), Mack Hollins, Dawson Knox (on/off), Ty Johnson (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Bo Nix finished the season with strong numbers after a somewhat slow start. Nix threw 29 touchdown passes on 66.0% passing over 33.35 attempts per game, averaging 6.7 yards per pass attempt. The rookie also ran the ball into the end zone four times on the season, bolstering his fantasy scoring to slate winning levels in a few weeks. Nix is a competent quarterback with a bright future, for Sunday’s short slate he slots in as QB5 by points and QB4 by value on DraftKings and QB5 across the board on FanDuel
Running Backs
The Denver running back situation is messy with Jaleel McLaughlin, Javonte Williams, and Audric Estime in a three-way chop that saw a 41-31-24% snap split in the team’s most recent game. McLaughlin led the group with 16 carries and two targets in that contest, Estime ranked second with 12 carries and a touchdown but he went untargeted in the passing game, and Williams brought up the bottom with five carries and three catches for 50 yards on four targets. If it were possible to Voltron the trio into a single competent player we would have something to work with, as things stand McLaughlin is the marginally best option in a weak group of running backs, he ranks as RB6 across the board on both sites
Receivers & Tight Ends
Courtland Sutton carried the Denver pass-catchers through the season with an average of 7.9 targets, of which he caught 4.9 on varied throw quality. Sutton came away with eight touchdown catches while dominating air yards, his team-leading target number combined with a 13.2-yard average depth of target to push a whopping 47.0% air yards share in his direction. Sutton is WR4 by points on both sites, he is WR7 by value on DraftKings and WR5 by value on FanDuel and makes for the top skill player option and best pairing with Nix when it comes to Broncos options
Marvin Mims Jr. is WR14/15 and WR13/13 across sites, he ranks on the edges of playability but does check in with six touchdowns despite just 3.1 targets per game in the regular season. Mims Jr. caught on over the last few weeks of the season, in fact four of his six touchdowns were scored in Weeks 17 and 18, with two in each game. Mims had two 100-yard performances from Week 13 through Week 18 and saw a moderate uptick in targeting with a jump to an average of 5.16 targets per game from Week 12 onward
Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele slot in similarly, Franklin is a deep threat with a 13.0-yard average depth of target who scored twice during the regular season on 3.3 targets per game while Vele is a shorter-yardage option who looks to break plays after the catch, he averaged 8.6 yards per target on 4.2 targets per game and ended the year with three touchdown receptions
Lil’Jordan Humphrey and the team’s group of tight ends are more limited mix-in options, Humphrey does not see much volume and the tight ends play a short split on 4.0 targets per game spread over three players during the season
Green Bay Packers
Game Total: 45.5 / GB +5.0 (20.25 imp)
Plays: 51.22% rush / 48.78% pass / 27.1 ppg / 4.7 ypa rush / 8.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.0 ypa pass / 17.8 ppg / 7.03% sack / 2.40% int
Key Player: Jordan Love
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft, Emanuel Wilson (on/off), Bo Melton, Luke Musgrave (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Jahan Dotson, Johnny Wilson, Kenneth Gainwell (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jordan Love slots in as the bottom-ranked quarterback on both sites, he is QB6 across the board but is a better overall player than that might indicate, playoff QB6 is different than hitting the bottom of a regular season board. Love threw 25 touchdown passes against a shaky 11 interceptions during the season while averaging a strong 8.0 yards per pass attempt on 8.7 intended air yards per attempt, the Packers passing game is aggressive in its play construction but overall the quarterback threw the ball a limiting 28.3 times per game during the regular season. Love will be without Christian Watson but the deep Packers receiver room is capable of filling that gap smoothly, the team’s biggest challenge will come from an outstanding Eagles pass defense that limited opponents to 6.0 yards per pass attempt
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs was a solid workhorse back for this team all season, racking up 4.4 yards per rush attempt on 17.7 carries per game and adding another 8.0 yards per target on 2.5 opportunities each week in the passing attack. Jacobs managed a single touchdown reception to go with the excellent total of 15 rushing touchdowns on the year. The veteran running back could see an uptick in volume in the playoff game, depending on the Packers approach to a stingy Eagles defense, he is RB4/4 on DraftKings and RB3/3 on FanDuel and is easily in play
Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks would need something unfortunate above them on the depth chart to gain relevance
Receivers & Tight Ends
Jayden Reed is a big play waiting to happen, he returned 11.4 yards per target on a 9.1-yard average depth of target over 4.4 opportunities per game this season, scoring six times in the air and once on a rushing play, an area in which he gained 8.2 yards per attempt on 1.2 carries per game as a gadget play specialist bursting with explosiveness. Reed slots in as the top Green Bay receiver in Watson’s absence though volume and target shape might favor Romeo Doubs. Reed is WR8 by points and WR11 by value on both sites
Romeo Doubs slots in as WR9 by points on both sites, he is WR12 by value on DraftKings and gains a spot above Reed as WR10 by value on the FanDuel board. Doubs leads active Packers pass-catchers with 5.5 targets per game during the regular season but that amounts simply to one additional target beyond the averages of Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Tucker Kraft. Reed did not have a double-digit target game this season, Wicks had one, Doubs had two, including 11 opportunities in the team’s big Week 17 game against Minnesota. Doubs is a deep threat with a team-leading 12.3-yard average depth of target, he held a 21.46% air yards share for the year and scored four times in the passing game
Dontayvion Wicks finished the year with five touchdown receptions on limited action. Wicks was in and out of playability throughout the season, he is always more than a dart throw but he gains significant value in situations like Sunday where one of the primary weapons above him on the depth chart is missing. The receiver has strong separation ability down the field and posted a 10.7-yard ADOT for the season, garnering a 21.32% air yards share on 4.5 targets per game. Wicks is WR10 by points and WR8 by value on DraftKings and lands as WR11 by points and as the best value of the bunch with a WR7 value ranking on FanDuel. All three of the wide receivers are at worst playable
Tucker Kraft led the receiving group with seven touchdown catches this season, he sees an OK 4.1 targets per game but spiked to seven opportunities in last week’s contest. Kraft did not have a double-digit target game but his consistent red zone opportunities throughout the season have appeal for the fair price, he could find the end zone and value on limited chances on Sunday. Kraft is TE4 by points but TE1 by value on the short slate at the position on DraftKings, he is TE2 across the board on FanDuel today
Philadelphia Eagles
Game Total: 45.5 / PHI (25.25 imp)
Plays: 55.75% rush / 44.25% pass / 27.2 ppg / 4.9 ypa rush / 7.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 19.9 ppg / 7.38% sack / 3.01% int
Key Player: Jalen Hurts
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Jahan Dotson, Johnny Wilson, Kenneth Gainwell (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft, Emanuel Wilson (on/off), Bo Melton, Luke Musgrave (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts technically rates as QB4 by points on both sites while jumping to QB3 by value on DraftKings, this is a reflection of an extremely thin margin between projections among the top-four quarterback options, with little more than two fantasy points separating the group from top to bottom. Hurts, as should be obvious, has a scoring ceiling that is only limited by the game clock, he scored 14 rushing touchdowns and threw another 18 touchdowns against just five interceptions on the season and averaged 8.1 yards per pass attempt while working with some of the top skill players in NFL DFS. Hurts has a ceiling that rivals any player from any position on this slate, he is easily one of the top options of the day at the quarterback spot and should not be discounted for how the rankings fall. The Eagles are facing a Packers defense that had a strong 3.01% interception rate while allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt but holding opponents under 20 points per game
Running Backs
The Philadelphia backfield presents the most likely scoring option of the day. Much like Derrick Henry dominated yesterday’s action in the Ravens game, Saquon Barkley could simply take the bulk of the touches and touchdowns off the table for the Eagles on Sunday. The running back was outstanding in his first year in ugly green, scoring 13 times on the ground and twice in the passing attack while averaging 5.8 yards per rush attempt and coming up about 100 yards shy of the all-time rushing record. Barkley is RB1 by points and RB2 by points-per-dollar value on both sites, he will and should be incredibly popular on this slate
Kenneth Gainwell and Will Shipley are dart throw options for cheap running back shares, neither is likely to see significant involvement or have much of an opportunity to score a touchdown, they would simply mix in for a few yardage-based points with Gainwell adding the upside of a potential target or two
Receivers & Tight Ends
AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith form a lethal two-headed monster of a receiving tandem for Jalen Hurts, they scored a combined 15 touchdowns this season with both players missing time. Brown had seven touchdowns in 13 games, averaging a team-leading 7.5 targets per contest with three double-digit target games and a season-high of 15 chances. Brown and Smith both work down the field but Brown is the more likely contributor when it comes to big plays, he carried 36.11% of the team’s air yards on a 12.1-yard average depth of target and gained 11.1 yards per target for the season. Brown is WR2/WR2 on DraftKings and WR2/WR3 on the FanDuel slate
DeVonta Smith was targeted 6.8 times per game this season, racking up a 25.01% air yards share on a 9.1-yard ADOT and scoring eight times to lead the pass-catchers. Smith also played 13 games this season and also had three contests with double-digit targeting, peaking at 12 in Week 15, a game in which Brown was targeted 11 times, meaning both receivers can get where they need to go in the same DFS lineup. Smith is WR5/WR5 on DraftKings and WR6 by points and slips a little to WR8 by value on the FanDuel slate
Dallas Goedert is TE2/TE2 on DraftKings and TE3/TE4 on FanDuel. Goedert scored twice this season while drawing 5.2 targets per game in his 10 games. Goedert returned from injured reserve in Week 18, stepping in with other teammates resting and playing limited snaps. Goedert caught four of six targets for 55 yards in the season’s final game, but that came on just 13 snaps and nine routes run. With an assumption of full involvement, the tight end is playable at worst, he had at least 56 receptions and three touchdowns in each of the last three seasons
Jahan Dotson is a low-end receiver with bad hands. Dotson caught just 1.1 of 1.9 targets per game on the season and averaged a mere 6.5 yards per target despite a 9.9-yard average depth of target, he did not score despite playing 58% of the team’s snaps this season and playing in every game
Johnny Wilson is a mixer for a deep target or two, he had a 9.8-yard average depth of target and scored once this season, Ainias Smith is unlikely to see the volume to support a DFS play, he was targeted 1.3 times per game and six times in the absence of most of the team’s starters last week but he should slip back to a mere target or two as a lottery ticket option
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game Total: 50.5 / TB -3.0 (26.75 imp)
Plays: 44.15% rush / 55.85% pass / 29.5 ppg / 5.3 ypa rush / 7.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 23.0 ppg / 7.98% sack / 1.41% int
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, Jalen McMillan, Rachaad White (on/off), Cade Otton, Sterling Shepard, Sean Tucker (on/off), Payne Durham (on/off), Rakim Jarrett (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson Jr., Zach Ertz, Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown, Luke McCaffrey, Ben Sinnott (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
After earning glowing statements week after week in our content throughout the regular season it should not be surprising that Baker Mayfield looks fairly tremendous on today’s slate as well. The Tampa Bay quarterback paces the slate with 41 touchdown passes on the season, though he did lose 16 interceptions in the process. Mayfield averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt and threw the ball 33.53 times per game, only Bo Nix reaches similar volume averages on this slate and Nix is a more limited passer on the whole. Mayfield even added three rushing touchdowns to his outstanding total this season, though we prefer him upright and stable in the pocket looking to hit his fantastic lead wide receiver down the field for a big strike. Mayfield is QB3 by points and QB1 by value on both sites and is likely to be popular on this slate, he is worth the investment against a defense that yielded 23.0 points per game and 7.0 yards per pass attempt, Washington is the most targetable defense on this slate
Running Backs
Bucky Irving eclipsed Rachaad White around the middle of the season and did not look back, ending the year with eight rushing touchdowns and an average of 2.7 yards both before and after contact per rush attempt (5.4/attempt) and 7.5 yards per target on 3.1 targets per game for the season. Irving did not score on a pass play this regular season but it is not outside the realm of possibility on any given slate, given his steady workload. While White is not gone, he tends to see more action as a receiver out of the backfield, somewhat limiting Irving’s chances in that role. Overall, Irving is targetable for standalone shares and in stacks of Buccaneers, he is RB2 by points and RB1 by value on this slate, and it should be noted that once again Mayfield, Irving, and Mike Evans all rank in the top two spots across all categories on both sites at their respective positions, they are an extra-high priority stack on this slate
Rachaad White is RB8 by points and value on DraftKings, he is RB8 by points and RB10 by value on FanDuel. White gained just 4.3 yards per rush attempt on the season but he was solid in the passing game with six touchdown receptions and a 6.9 yards per target average on a -1.9-yard average depth of target out of the backfield. White saw nine carries and 3.6 targets per game but lost volume as the season carried on, he is a mixer and he is playable on this slate but expectations should be tempered and he will need either a touchdown or a significant catch total to make value
Sean Tucker could poach a cheap touchdown, he is not a priority play by any stretch but he is loosely on the lottery ticket board with a pair of rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown this season
Receivers & Tight Ends
Mike Evans is the top-ranked receiver on a deep slate of wide receiver options, he is WR1 across the board on both sites. Evans is a future Hall of Famer, he kept his streak of consecutive 1,000-yard seasons alive on the last play of the regular season this year but that came amidst a handful of missed games, evening things out historically. The receiver led Tampa Bay with 7.9 targets per game and peaks of 14 targets in two different games this year. Evans had four double-digit target games, three of which came after his return from injury in the absence of Chris Godwin. Evans averaged 9.29 targets per game over the last seven games of the season, hauling in 48 of those passes for 669 yards and five scores after his return from injury
Jalen McMillan emerged as the number two option in this passing game after the team lost Chris Godwin. McMillan ended the season with eight touchdown catches, all but one of which came over the last five games of the season. The receiver scored on one catch in Week 1 and had exactly two more catches over the next three games total. He caught a few passes when Evans and Godwin were first injured but then missed time himself, with DNPs in Weeks 9 and 10 before a Week 11 bye. From Week 12 onward, McMillan averaged 5.14 targets and caught 27 passes for 352 yards and seven touchdowns. McMillan is WR7 by points and WR6 by value on both sites, he is a strong +2 option in Tampa Bay stacks and is a solid mix-in for differentiation when attempting to include someone from this team in non-stacked lineups, though Evans is strongly preferred for probability of a high-scoring day
Cade Otton is questionable but “on track” after logging full practices, he ranks as TE5 across the board on both sites on a short slate at the position. Otton had four touchdown catches on a solid 6.2 targets per game and would be the nominal third option in the passing attack, potentially fourth behind the combined targeting going to the running back position. Otton is a capable but unspectacular tight end who carried just a 5.5-yard average depth of target and hauled in 4.2 of his targets per game, his red zone opportunities are the true appeal. Otton had at least one red zone target in all but three of the team’s games from Week 1 through Week 15, totaling 16 chances inside of scoring territory for the season, his touchdown total could have been stronger with a bit more good fortune
Sterling Shepard, Rakim Jarrett, and Trey Palmer see very limited opportunities and did not do much in the absence of better receivers in the middle of the year, they have two combined touchdowns with Shepard leading the group at 3.6 targets per game for the year. Jarrett and Palmer do get downfield routes, they had ADOTs of 11.5 and 14.5 respectively, but saw just 1.1 and 1.5 targets per game overall and both had zero in last week’s crucial contest, they are no more than lottery tickets on this slate
Washington Commanders
Game Total: 50.5 / WAS +3.0 (23.75 imp)
Plays: 47.77% rush / 52.23% pass / 28.5 ppg / 5.0 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 22.6 ppg / 6.80% sack / 1.11% int
Key Player: Jayden Daniels
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson Jr., Zach Ertz, Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown, Luke McCaffrey, Ben Sinnott (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, Jalen McMillan, Rachaad White (on/off), Cade Otton, Sterling Shepard, Sean Tucker (on/off), Payne Durham (on/off), Rakim Jarrett (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels finished a strong rookie season with 25 touchdown passes against just nine interceptions while throwing the ball a steady but underwhelming 28.24 times per game. Daniels was terrific for accuracy early in the season and grew at the position throughout the year, developing a terrific connection with leading receiver Terry McLaurin, with whom he connected for 13 touchdowns. Daniels averaged 7.4 yards per pass attempt and added another six yards per rush attempt on 8.7 carries per game, making him a dangerous dual-threat at the position. The quarterback did not see the touchdown-scoring opportunities that Allen and Hurts do but he punched the ball into the end zone six times on the ground to enhance scoring on a few top-end DFS weeks. Daniels is QB2 by points on both sites, he is QB2 for value on DraftKings and QB3 for value on FanDuel and is a strong option against a gettable but competent Tampa Bay defense
Running Backs
Brian Robinson Jr. ranks as RB5 across the board on both sites on Sunday, he is a medium talent option on this slate, given the available peaks and valleys at the position. Robinson Jr. scored eight times on the ground and failed to get into the end zone with a catch this season. The running back averaged just 4.3 yards per rush attempt and saw merely 13.4 carries per game and 1.8 weekly targets, his volume is less than ideal but the slate is thin overall. Robinson ceded both carries and touchdown opportunities down the depth chart however, making this situation a bit murky for DFS investments. The Commanders and Broncos running back situations are similar this week.
Austin Ekeler picked up 4.8 yards per rush attempt and carried the ball 6.4 times per game while seeing a solid 3.4 targets each week. Ekeler got into the end zone four times on the ground but also failed to score in the passing attack despite the steady targeting and an 8.9-yard-per-target average. The running back is a mix-in option who could easily snag the touchdown opportunities in this contest, he is RB7 across the board on both sites and makes for a reasonable pivot from Robinson
Jeremy McNichols is RB17 across the board on both sites, his volume is far more limited unless something happens above him on the depth chart but he comes with explosiveness if he manages to get on the field. McNichols scored four times on the ground this season and averaged 4.7 yards per attempt despite seeing limited action as a third-stringer most weeks
Receivers & Tight Ends
Terry McLaurin is far and away the best Commanders’ pass-catcher, the top-heavy Washington passing attack badly needs a strong second wide receiver for balance and deception’s sake. McLaurin came up with a fantastic 13 touchdowns on the season and he carries a significant 40.34% air yards share into the playoffs. McLaurin sees 6.9 targets per game and had three double-digit target games this season, including 12 last week. The receiver built a connection with his rookie quarterback as the season carried on, finishing strong with seven touchdowns in his last six games
Zach Ertz is the number two target in this passing attack, he averaged 5.4 targets per game on the season and scored seven times. On an extremely thin slate for tight ends, Ertz could easily be seen as the top overall option, he ranks as TE1 by points and TE4 by value on DraftKings and is TE1 across the board on the FanDuel slate. McLaurin and Ertz are the most straightforward pairing for builds that stack Commanders, they are also excellent bring back options and could work as a bring-back tandem targeting a high-scoring affair between the Commanders and Buccaneers in a lineup that stacks Tampa Bay
Olamide Zaccheaus has gained steam down the stretch and sits as the second-best wide receiver option on a thin team depth chart. Zaccheaus is an explosive player who gained 7.9 yards per target and scored three times on 3.8 targets per game for the season. Zaccheaus was targeted 26 times over the last four games of the season, he caught 18 of those passes for 242 yards and three touchdowns and emerged from a tightly packed group of lower-end options on this team
Dyami Brown and Luke McCaffrey are lower-end options on this roster. Brown ranks as WR16/16 and WR15/15 and McCaffrey is WR20/19 and WR21/22 across sites. Brown saw 2.5 targets per game this season while McCaffrey averaged 1.4 opportunities per week, Brown has the lone touchdown for the duo. Neither receiver is overly appealing but either could be utilized to differentiate a +2 build or as a very cheap low-probability bring-back dart in Tampa Bay stacks if value is needed (expectations should be VERY low in that situation)
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