This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.
This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video
All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io
Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning
Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.
2024 Week 14 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings
The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.
| TEAM | OPP | FD$ | FDpRank | FDvalRank | DK$ | DkpRank | DKvalRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | KC | $27,100 | 3 | 3 | $23,800 | 3 | 3 |
| KC | BUF | $27,000 | 2 | 1 | $21,700 | 2 | 1 |
| PHI | WAS | $33,300 | 1 | 2 | $27,700 | 1 | 2 |
| WAS | PHI | $28,200 | 4 | 4 | $24,600 | 4 | 4 |
Week 14 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups
Overview
Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.
Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.
DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options
Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.
Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.
Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.
FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.
Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.
Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.
DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules
This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.
- QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
- optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
- QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)
Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements
Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.
- Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
- Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
- optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)
We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.
Sunday Updates
Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.
NFL DFS Week 14 Features & FREE Projections
- Week 14 Projections
- Week 14 Above/Below
- Week 14 Quarterback Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 14 Running Back Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 14 Pass-Catcher Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 14 Defense Scoring & Value Rankings
Construction Concept
Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.
Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 14
The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.
The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.
Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when a situation has an extremely highly projected running back that does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.
Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams.
Arizona Cardinals
Game Total: 44.5 / ARI -2.5 (23.5 imp.)
Plays: 46.54% rush / 53.46% pass / 22.2 ppg / 5.1 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 22.1 ppg / 6.98% sack / 2.25% int
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: James Conner, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Elijah Higgins (on/off), Trey Benson (on/off), Greg Dortch (large field), Zay Jones (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, Zach Charbonnet, Noah Fant, AJ Barner (large field)
Game Notes: The Cardinals square off against the Seahawks in a mid-range game carrying a 44.5-point total and just a 2.5-point spread going in Arizona’s favor at home. The Cardinals score 22.2 points per game on their solid 5.1 yards per rush attempt and average 7.3 yards per pass. Quarterback Kyler Murray leads a capable group of skill player options with playability at each position in what ranks as a top-10 stack on both sites in Week 14. Murray throws for 7.3 yards per attempt on a matching intended air yards per attempt mark, completing 69% of his 29.83 attempts per game. The quarterback has 13 passing touchdowns against just six interceptions this season and added four rushing touchdowns to his ledger on 7.8 yards per rush attempt. Murray is a fairly-priced QB7 by points and QB9 by value on DraftKings this week, he is QB9 by points and QB7 by value on the larger FanDuel slate. James Conner slots in as a running back who functions for standalone shares or in stacks of Cardinals skill players, preferably as the second skill player in a +2 configuration with Murray and a pass-catcher. Conner gains a solid 4.2 yards per attempt over 15.3 carries per game and has five rushing touchdowns on the season, he is a running back with a relatively safe floor for touches with 3.3 targets per game, though he falls short of our desired 20 potential touches per game. The running back is RB6/8 on DraftKings and RB6/6 on FanDuel, he is an option in any configuration on either site at only modest popularity. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride give the Cardinals a strong pair of DFS point creators in primary pass-catching roles at wide receiver and tight end. McBride came into the year highly regarded and typically delivers on his rputation for quality, despite failing to score over the season’s first dozen games. The tight end sees 8.4 targets per game and hauls in 6.6 of them each week, gaining 8.5 yards per target over a 23.85% air yards share. McBride is a primary weapon, his lack of touchdowns is mostly attributable to happenstance, he is still a strong option at the position this week. Harrison has been as-advertised in his rookie year. Following an on-and-off first few weeks of the season, the receiver is up to seven touchdown catches while averaging 3.4 catches per game on 6.5 targets over an appealing 13.8-yard average depth of target that leads to big scoring plays. Between the two, Harrison provides the more explosive upside and has shown a nose for the end zone on a team that likes to call his number on those plays. Harrison Jr. is WR14/15 on DraftKings and WR18/15 on FanDuel while McBride is TE2/3 on DraftKings and TE2/4 on FanDuel, illustrating the overall paucity of reliable options on the top shelf at tight end. Michael Wilson is the third option in the passing attack, drawing similar targeting to Conner with 4.6 opportunities per game, however they come on a far different angle down the field. Wilson has an 11.5-yard average depth of target that sits second on the team, giving him a 24.15% air yards share that is second to only Harrison Jr.’s massive 41.69% mark. Wilson is WR37/34 and WR42/42 across sites, he is a mix-in dart in standalone shares but a more interesting stacking piece for differentiating Cardinals +2 builds. Trey Benson and Emari Demarcado saw three carries each in the team’s most recent game, the low-volume running backs are poor options for NFL DFS shares outside of the longest of dart throws for an explosive play. Between the two, Benson ranks slightly higher as RB34/34 and RB41/41. Elijah Higgins draws only limited targets behind McBride at tight end, he sees 1.6 opportunities per game but has found the end zone twice on the season, making him a low-end positional value mixer. Greg Dortch sees 3.2 targets per game while Zay Jones and Zach Pascal are barely on the board to play, Dortch is nothing more than a desperate dart from WR59/57 and WR70/69.
The Cardinals are Stack 7 by points and Stack 5 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 9 by points and Stack 7 by value on the FanDuel slate but they are somewhat top-heavy around the obvious names
Atlanta Falcons
Game Total: 46.0 / ATL +6.5 (19.75 imp.)
Plays: 43.20% rush / 56.80% pass / 21.4 ppg / 4.3 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass
oppDEF: 18.3 ppg / 3.7 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 7.78% sack / 3.90% int
Key Player: Kirk Cousins
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud III, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Allgeier (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones the First, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Jalen Nailor, Cam Akers (on/off)
Game Notes: The Falcons draw a challenging Vikings defense as 6.5-point underdogs on the road this week. Atlanta will be thrusting running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier into a defensive blockade that allows just 3.7 yards per rush attempt, the third-lowest rush ypa allowed in the league this season. Minnesota’s defense is an aggressive machine that relies on pressure, which could be disastrous for struggling veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. Minnesota has 39 sacks and 18 interceptions on the season, giving them a 7.78% sack rate and 3.90% interception rate that rank 11th and 1st overall, their 27% pressure rate is sparked by a 38.0% blitz rate. Cousins has managed 7.6 yards per pass attempt while completing 67.0% of 33.25 passes per game on the season but he has 17 touchdown passes against 13 interceptions and has not been a top-end fantasy quarterback since Week 8 when he threw for 276 yards and four touchdowns against Tampa Bay. Cousins threw another three touchdowns the following week but has now gone three games without throwing a touchdown pass, while throwing six interceptions, including four in the team’s most recent game. The quarterback is reportedly on a long leash but that could change in a hurry, given the first round draft capital invested in backup Michael Penix. Cousins is not highly regarded by the model this week, he ranks as QB15/20 on DraftKings and QB17/19 on the FanDuel slate, the Falcons skill players are probably better as individuals. Robinson and Allgeier will face a rush defense that has not only stifled yardage but one that has also held opponents to just 0.4 rushing touchdowns and 81.3 yards per game, both top marks in the league. Teams throw the ball far more against Minnesota, putting the ball in the air 38.5 times per game and feeding the team’s aggressive secondary. Robinson has seven rushing touchdowns while gaining 2.4 yards before and 2.2 yards after contact per attempt over 16.1 carries per game this season, and Allgeier, who gains a strong 4.8 yards per attempt has a pair of rushing touchdowns but sees only limited opportunities to succeed and has very little involvement in the passing game. Drake London and Darnell Mooney are the top two targets with 8.8 and 7.3 opportunities per game, respectively. London gains 7.5 yards per target while Mooney puts up 8.4 on a slightly deeper average look. Mooney leads London with an 11.9-yard ADOT to the top receiver’s 10.7-yard mark, but London narrowly edges out the competitor with six touchdowns to Mooney’s five and 36.40% of the air yards to Mooney’s 35.04% mark. Of course, if Cousins is running for his life and unable to deliver the ball once again, both receivers will easily fall short of even their cheap value thresholds as WR7/4 and WR8/12 for London and WR27/30 and WR27/19 for Mooney. Kyle Pitts is a mix-and-match tight end who slots in as TE10/TE13 and TE14/TE15. Pitts has three touchdowns on the season while gaining a solid 9.1 yards per target over an 8.4-yard average depth of target that is among the upper-level options at the position. Pitts draws just 4.5 targets per game, the team leans more heavily into the run, ranking in the top-10 in rushing rate since Cousins’ last strong performance while their pace has plummeted. Ray-Ray McCloud III has talent but his limited volume has been hampered even further by the average quality of target over the past few games. McCloud relies on his skills after the catch to find value on short-yardage targeting, his ADOT sits at just 6.9 yards but he gains 7.8 yards per target and has scored once on 5.1 opportunities per game. McCloud is a dart throw receiver in a bad situation against Minnesota this week, he is no better than WR40/42 and WR46/45 across sites, sitting on the fringes of playability. Remaining Falcons players are simple lottery tickets who see no predictable volume, no one beyond the mentioned players sees even 1.0 target or 1.0 rush attempt per game.
Atlanta is Stack 10 by points and Stack 14 by value on DraftKings and Stack 10 by points and Stack 17 by value on FanDuel, they are better for mining a few skill player shares but even that is dicey against a tough aggressive defense
Buffalo Bills
Game Total: 49.0 / BUF -3.5 (26.25 imp.)
Plays: 48.05% rush / 51.95% pass / 29.6 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 7.9 ypa pass / 24.2 ppg / 7.27% sack / 2.80% int
Key Player: Josh Allen
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, Dalton Kincaid (Q; doubtful), Keon Coleman (Q; limited/GTD), Dawson Knox (on/off; large field), Curtis Samuel (on/off; large field), Mack Hollins (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Demarcus Robinson, Colby Parkinson, Tutu Atwell, Tyler Johnson
Game Notes: The Bills and Rams will face off in one of the most highly-anticipated games of the week with Buffalo favored by 3.5 on the road in a game carrying a 49.0-point total. The Bills and Rams are two of the league’s more compelling offenses, Buffalo operates at the extremes of efficiency while Los Angeles has an excellent high-volume passing attack. The Bill are scoring 29.6 points and 3.6 touchdowns per game on 4.4 yards per rush and 7.5 yards per pass attempt for the season. Buffalo scores 0.494 points per play for the season, the second-best efficiency mark in the sport. This can lead to opportunities for opposing offenses to keep pace, something the Rams are well-equipped to do in a game that could easily turn into a shootout with high-scoring DFS options on both sides. Josh Allen slings the ball 29.67 times per game for 7.6 yards per attempt and has 20 touchdowns in the books against just five interceptions this season. Allen gains 4.8 yards per attempt on the ground over his 5.8 carries per game, his volume is not tremendous but he is a highly successful runner at the position and he sees scoring opportunities on the ground regularly. Allen pads his quarterback scoring with six rushing touchdowns this season. Allen is QB1 by points on both sites but his DraftKings value rating drips down to QB16 against a high price tag, he is stronger on FanDuel as QB1 by points and QB3 by value. Khalil Shakir catches nearly everything thrown his way, he has been one of football’s best in terms of receptions per target over the past two seasons and is hauling in 5.5 of 6.6 targets per game for 8.6 yards per target despite just a 3.9-yard average depth of target. Shakir catches the ball then makes things happen, he is a strong option for accruing yardage and for PPR scoring but he has only put two touchdown catches in the books this season. Shakir is WR23/29 and WR24/24 across sites, he is playable as a standalone option but probably functions better in stacks with Allen as a +1 or in +2 configurations. Amari Cooper has three touchdowns for the season in limited action to this point with Buffalo and while hampered by poor quarterback play prior to his trade. Cooper was highly involved through the competitive part of last week’s game, he should continue to gain ground for opportunities in Week 14 and faces a gettable secondary that allows 7.9 yards per pass attempt, the 29th-ranked mark out of football’s 32 teams. Los Angeles allows receptions to the outside at a heavy clip this season, Cooper could benefit from a strong uptick in targets and he has game-breaking ability, he is WR28/24 and WR32/28 across sites. The team should have both Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman back in the mix this week. Kincaid has missed the team’s past two games with a bye week thrown in as well, he was coming off of six catches for 56 yards and no touchdowns over his two most recent games combined but sees a steady stream of targets when healthy, averaging 5.9 per game for the season. Coleman was limited in practice again this week and has missed three straight games. The rookie receiver is averaging 4.0 targets per game on a 13.0-yard ADOT for 15.17% of the team’s air yards and three touchdowns despite his absences, he is a solid mixer with talent at WR but lands only as a fringe option at WR36/43 and WR44/46. Kincaid is TE9 by points and TE15 by value on DraftKings and TE10/11 on FanDuel. Running back James Cook cashes touchdown tickets for the Bills with regularity, punching the ball in 11 times on the season. Cook gains an excellent 4.7 yards per attempt over 13.7 carries per game and adds 6.1 yards per target on an additional 2.9 opportunities via the pass. The running back scored once on a reception this season as well, he draws solid any-given-slate upside for multiple scores and is an underrated option for yardage in weeks in which he draws a few additional carries. Cook is RB5 by points on both sites but slips to RB12 by value on DraftKings and RB14 by value on FanDuel. Dawson Knox will slide back into his lower-volume role with Kincaid back in the mix, Knox is a touchdown-dependent tight end on low volume, he has just one score this season but does see a solid 10.3-yard average depth of target. Ray Davis is a mix-in running back with limited value, he carries the ball just 6.7 times per game but he has four touchdowns with three on the ground and one in the passing attack. Davis is RB33/37 and RB37/38 and is hardly playable outside of lottery lineups. Mack Hollins will also slip in value with a full depth chart, Hollins will retain big play ability given his 13.2-yard average depth of target but he will be relegated to only a few chances at most. Hollins has four touchdowns on the board over 2.7 targets per game, he is a dart throw with slightly more appeal than the average pointy throwable thing, Hollins is still only WR64/68 and WR73/75.
The Bills are Stack 8 by points on both sites, on DraftKings they fall all the way to Stack 18 by value with everyone priced up, on FanDuel they remain Stack 8 by value as well as points
Update: Dalton Kincaid is trending more toward doubtful as Saturday turns to Sunday, Dawson Knox would become a value in his stead but targeting could easily revert to wide receivers in the situation
Carolina Panthers
Game Total: 45.0 / CAR +13.5 (15.75 imp.)
Plays: 40.26% rush / 59.74% pass / 18.1 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 6.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.2 ypa pass / 18.2 ppg / 8.47% sack / 1.80% int
Key Player: Bryce Young
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Chuba Hubbard, Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen, David Moore, Ja’Tavion Sanders (Q; likely), Tommy Tremble (on/off), Jonathon Brooks (on/off), Deven Thompkins (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Grant Calcaterra, Kenneth Gainwell (on/off), Jahan Dotson (large field)
Game Notes: Despite throwing the ball at nearly a 60% clip overall, the Panthers have dipped toward the middle of the pack in neutral pass rate over in Bryce Young starts this season, thrusting running back Chuba Hubbard to the forefront against an Eagles defense that has been exceptional against the pass but more pedestrian against the run this season. Hubbard gains 4.9 yards per rush attempt and sees 19.1 potential touches on 15.8 carries and 3.3 targets per game. The running back has reached paydirt eight times overall, with one receiving and seven rushing touchdowns and he slots in as a playable mid-level positional option. Hubbard is RB16/19 and RB17/18 across sites this week, he should be the second or third running back added to a lineup, typically after filling most other spots, he is not a high-priority on a team that will be playing from behind as 13.5-point underdogs while averaging only 18.1 points per game. If things do come down to Young, the team will be relying on a quarterback who has shown growth in his most recent performances but who is very much the same guy who was played out of a job by the ghost of Andy Dalton. Young completed 26 of 46 attempts last week, throwing for 298 yards and a touchdown and adding another score on the ground on a monster play. Young threw for 263 yards and a touchdown on 21-35 passing in Week 12 against Kansas City and he has not thrown an interception in his last three starts. The quarterback is difficult to trust and does not rank or project particularly well, so he is somewhat irrelevant despite cheap pricing. Young is just QB18/18 and QB20/22 across sites this week. Xavier Legette and Adam Thielen slot in as the top two options in the passing game. Legette sees 4.9 targets on an 11.5-yard average depth of target and gains 6.7 yards per opportunity with four of those going for scores over his 32.77% air yards share. Thielen has a pair of touchdowns one of which came early in the season and the other just last week, he missed Weeks 4 through 11 in the interim. Thielen caught eight of 10 targets for 99 yards and a touchdown last week and had a productive 57 yards on three catches in his return to action in Week 12. The veteran gives Young a very solid target for red zone and end zone opportunities and he can still get down the field for big play potential, though Legette is probably the stronger option for an explosive gain. Thielen is WR33/38 and WR39/39 while Legette beats him slightly as WR34/36 and WR38/34 after emerging somewhat in recent games with Young at the helm. David Moore was a popular value selection last week in some places around the industry, we have him as WR48/53 and WR52/53 this week, despite a solid but unspectacular five catches for 40 yards on nine targets in Week 13. Moore caught a touchdown and hauled in six of 10 targets for 81 yards in Week 12, he is a mixer option with a price tag that still sits at only $4,000/$5,300 and he could pick up a slight bump in projection by morning based on the solid target volume of late. Jonathaon Brooks finally got in the mix last week with six carries for 18 yards and three catches for another 23. Brooks’ highly anticipated debut was a longtime coming, he should continue to see only 10 or fewer potential touches unless something changes on the depth chart but he is a lottery ticket backup running back with touchdown-dependent upside as RB31/31 and RB35/37. Ja’Tavion Sanders is questionable to return but expected to play after practicing in full, his presence will likely limit the upside for both himself and Tommy Tremble at the position, with an unpredictable low-volume split. Tremble caught five of eight targets for 77 yards in Sanders’ absence last week and is the nominal top option but Sanders was involved in the weeks that Tremble missed and vice versa. Deven Thompkins is no more than a lottery receiver with under a target per game, he is not a serious option outside of a lightning strike.
The Panthers are Stack 20/20 on DraftKings and Stack 22/22 on FanDuel this week. There are 20 teams on DraftKings and 22 teams on FanDuel this week, the most appealing thing having to do with the Panthers’ offense this week is the Eagles’ defense
Chicago Bears
Game Total: 44.0 / CHI +3.5 (20.25 imp.)
Plays: 40.59% rush / 59.41% pass / 20.1 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 6.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 24.6 ppg / 7.18% sack / 3.04% int
Key Player: Caleb Williams
Setting: at least one
Team Group: DJ Moore (Q; likely), Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift (Q; likely), Cole Kmet
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel, Isaac Guerendo, George Kittle, Ricky Perasall
Game Notes: The Bears have been averaging an improved 21.25 points per game over the past four contests, with a pair of 19-point games, a 20-point performance, and a 27-point outburst in an overtime loss to the Vikings in Week 12. The Bears have run a more rush-focused script under their new offensive coordinator in the past few games, which has been to the benefit of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams who has five touchdown passes and zero interceptions in the past two games. Williams threw threw touchdowns on 20-39 passing for 256 yards last week and had a 340-yard game with a pair of touchdown passes in Week 12 as he is finally hitting his stride in a more functional, and healthier, version of the offense. Williams is still averaging just 6.4 yards per pass attempt on 8.2 intended air yards per attempt and has not done much in the ground game despite a solid 6.4 yards per attempt, he has yet to run a ball into the end zone. After an up-and-down start followed by a scoring drought, Williams suddenly looks solid with 14 touchdown passes against just five interceptions this season, he ranks as QB10 by points and QB8 by value this week on DraftKings while sitting as just QB11/12 on the deeper FanDuel slate. Williams has three premium pass catchers at wide receiver and another at tight end, the Bears should be a better offense for DFS than they have been throughout most of this season. DJ Moore gains 6.9 yard per target on 8.0 targets per game and has five touchdowns on the board for this season, though Keenan Allen is now fully caught up with five scores of his own despite missing two games. The veteran receivers have exploded with the emergence of their quarterback, or perhaps more accurately have helped it along. Moore caught eight passes for 97 yards and a score last week and seven for 106 yards and another touchdown in Week 12, while Allen went off for a pair of touchdowns last week and had one in Week 12 as well. The duo is fantastic as a pairing with Williams against a gettable San Francisco defense that has been good at clipping yardage per attempt but has allowed significant reception-based scoring on the outside with significant single-high defensive scheming, against which Moore rates as a strong option. Moore is WR20/25 and WR21/20 across DraftKings and FanDuel while Allen slots in as WR22/21 and WR25/27, they are a solid +2 duo but they are not alone in this passing game. Rookie receiver Rome Odunze has seen ongoing enthusiasm as a value play in this space this season, and one of these days we’ll be right about him again. Odunze has been hit-and-miss, he has been over 100 yards twice and over 10 targets three times this season but has only scored once. Odunze is tremendously skilled but the rookie is still finding his footing in tandem with a quarterback who has also been on shaky ground to start his career. Odunze hauls in just 3.4 of 6.3 targets per game, operating on an extremely big-play-friendly 14.2-yard average depth of target. Whether targets are catchable balls or not has largely been the critical factor for this receiver, Odunze is seeing chances on ideal trajectory toward big game output, drawing a team-leading 33.23% air yards share, his value should be apparent for only $5,000/$5,600 as WR30/31 and WR34/33 and we unapologetically recommend him again in Week 14 with light single-digit popularity on both sites. Running back D’Andre Swift is a medium talent at the position who gains merely 3.9 yards per rush attempt on 14.9 carries per game and adds another 8.0 yards per target over 3.3 targets per contest, his volume is sturdy but unspectacular, like his running game. Swift ranks in the bottom-half of the qualified rushers in categories like missed tackles, broken tackles, and yards after contact per attempt, and he has been questionable to play this week. Swift is expected to play as Saturday turns into Sunday but the running back could be more limited than usual, and he is usually a limited option at best. Smith has touchdown-based value potential, which he reached five times overall this season but not at all in the past two games amid the emergence of the passing attack, he is RB14 by points but RB9 by value on DraftKings and RB15 by points and RB9 by value on FanDuel. The running back could gain a bit of ground by facing a defense that has been scuffling against the run during the season’s second-half. San Francisco allows a 19th-ranked 4.4 yards per rush attempt and 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game for the season and have slipped into the bottom third in several categories including missed tackles. The 49ers are depleted but not dead on offense, they should press scoring and pace against the Bears this week, which should play up passing for Chicago once again, Swift is playable and has points-per-dollar appeal but if he sees between 11 and 13 carries again he could end up with lower-level output like he did each of the past two games. If Swift does not suit up, Travis Homer would be the presumptive starter and would gain appeal as a value option for $4,000 on both sites, he has virtually no appeal if Swift is active. Tight end Cole Kmet is the team’s fourth solid pass-catcher in the offense. Kmet draws 4.2 targets per game on a 7.7-yard average depth of target for 11.83% of the team’s air yards but he has picked up three touchdowns on the season and gains a solid 9.0 yards per target with a bit of after-the-catch ability. Kmet is TE13/14 and TE15/18 across sites but he could offer more ceiling than may be apparent in the base rankings. Additional options are no more than depth lottery tickets, including the team’s backup tight end duo and receiver DeAndre Carter, they are not worth DFS shares on a team with an abundance of premium skill players at a variety of positions and prices.
The Bears are Stack 14 by points and Stack 12 by value on DraftKings, they are stack 15 by points and Stack 12 by value on FanDuel in Week 14
Cleveland Browns
Game Total: 44.0 / CLE +7.0 (18.5 imp.)
Plays: 34.47% rush / 65.53% pass / 18.2 ppg / 3.8 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 18.7 ppg / 6.73% sack / 3.23% int
Key Player: Jameis Winston
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Elijah Moore, Jerome Ford, Nick Chubb (on/off), Michael Woods
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Najiee Harris, George Pickens, Jaylen Warren, Pat Freiermuth, Mike Williams, Calvin Austin III, Darnell Washington (on/off)
Game Notes: Think what you will of quarterback Jameis Winston but the undeniable fact is that the Cleveland offense has been remade in his image since he arrived on the scene to relieve Ohio of the burdern of Deshaun Watson. Winston has led the Browns to a top-five passing rate and high-end pace in recent outings, throwing for a massive 497 yards on 34 of 58 passing with four touchdowns and three interceptions last week in a wild one against the Broncos. Winston threw an interception and failed to complete a touchdown pass while throwing for just 219 yards in Week 12 in what was his lowest-end performance to date. The quarterback put 395 yards on the board with a pair of touchdown passes while completing 30 of 46 attempts in Week 11 and was also over 300 yards with three touchdown passes in Week 8. Winston lands as QB14 by points and QB12 by value on DraftKings and QB16/13 on the FanDuel slate but there is clear upside for the mid-level investment once again this week. Winston is facing a Steelers team that ranks 15th with 7.1 yards allowed per pass attempt with a sturdy pass rush that generates a 25.0% pressure rate and has 29 sacks on the season. Winston will be facing a defense with a 3.23% interception rate, the league’s fifth-best mark. With his propensity for turnovers, Winston could once again feed both defensive and offensive scoring in a game carrying a 44.0-point total, though the Browns are clipped by an 18.5-point implied team total. Cleveland is a low-ranked stack this week, their running back position is split and their receivers are somewhat limited after Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku. Jeudy is WR13 by points and WR7 by value on DraftKings and he ranks as WR14 by points and an outrageous WR3 by value on the FanDuel slate where he costs just $6,100. The receiver draws 7.6 targets per game, second to Njoku’s 8.2, but he sees them on a tremendous 13.0-yard average depth of target for a team-leading 39.47% air yards share, one of the larger chunks of opportunity on the slate. Jeudy has three touchdown catches this season and has taken a step forward with Winston at the helm. In the three games since the team’s Week 10 bye, Jeudy has 21 catches for 462 yards and two touchdowns on 30 targets, partly due to Cedric Tillman’s absence last week. Jeudy posted a ridiculous 235-yard performance that included a touchdown catch on nine of 13 receiving and saw his third double-digit target game in the last four. Jeudy is the team’s clear number one wide receiver, more so with Tillman absent again in Week 14, but Njoku is just as prominent a target at tight end. Njoku also caught nine passes in Week 13, gaining 52 yards and scoring twice alongside Jeudy’s massive performance, though he needed 17 targets and four in the red zone to get there. Njoku has six red zone targets over the past two games after failing to draw one in three contests since Week 7. Elijah Moore had another standout performance in Week 13, catching eight of 14 targets for 111 yards after failing to crack 70 yards since Week 8. Moore does have a touchdown on the board for the season, it came in a Week 11 performance in which Winston found the catch-and-run receiver for six grabs, 66 yards, and the score. Overall, Jeudy is easily the team’s best option with his excellent points and value rankings, Njoku is TE3 by points and TE6 by value on DraftKings and TE4 by points and TE5 by value on FanDuel, and Moore slots in as a playable WR31/26 on both sites. Down the depth chart, Michael Woods II could see limited involvement again after drawing five targets and catching three of them for 43 yards last week and getting signed to the active roster again in Week 14. The Browns are slightly more muddled on the ground, Nick Chubb was looking like he would be the lead back even with Jerome Ford in the mix but the team went entirely the other way last week, limiting Chubb to 29 snaps while Ford saw 55. Both running backs carried the ball nine times with Ford gaining 41 yards and Chubb picking up just 21. For the season, Chubb has been limted to just 3.0 yards per attempt on 13.7 carries per game since his return, he has three rushing touchdowns despite the lackluster gains but his volume and output are thin at best. Ford gains 4.8 yards per attempt on seven carries per game and has one touchdown on the board in limited action. Neither running back offers more than mix-in appeal on either site this week.
The Browns are Stack 17 by points but they jump to Stack 9 by value on DraftKings, they are similarly ranked as Stack 18 by points but Stack 9 by value on FanDuel
Jacksonville Jaguars
Game Total: 40.0 / JAC +3.5 (18.25 imp.)
Plays: 40.39% rush / 59.61% pass / 19.0 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.5 ypa pass / 27.7 ppg / 7.03% sack / 1.74% int
Key Player: Mac Jones
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Brian Thomas Jr., Evan Engram, Travis Etienne Jr., Parker Washington, Tank Bigsby (on/off), Devin Duvernay (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyjae Spears (on/off), Chig Okonkwo, Tyler Boyd
Game Notes: A Jaguars team that averages just 19.0 points per game is once again handing the keys to limited New England washout quarterback Mac Jones after regular starter Trevor Lawrence was the victim of last week’s second-most popular professional hit attempt. Lawrence took a devastating blow that knocked him out for the foreseeable future, leaving Jones and his 5.6 yards per pass attempt to steer the team to defeat against a limited opponent in Week 14. Jacksonville slots in as one of the lowest-ranked stacks of the week, Jones is QB20/19 and QB22/21 and shows little-to-no value despite solid skill players to help. Brian Thomas Jr. has been in and out in recent weeks but has had a solid campaign overall. Thomas Jr. gains 10.5 yards per target on 6.1 opportunities per game and has six touchdown catches over a 28.31% air yards share on his 13.1-yard average depth of target. Thomas Jr. is a big play receiver with upside but the delivery of the football matters, Jones ranks outside of the top-25 in catchable pass rate. Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby slot in as lower-mid running back options with mixed volume. Etienne has underwhelmed all year with 3.9 yards per rush attempt on 9.5 carries per game yielding just a pair of rushing touchdowns. By contrast, Bigsby gains 5.4 yards per attempt on 9.3 carries and has four rushing touchdowns on fewer overall chances. Etienne is more inovled in the passing game but has failed to score any additional touchdowns on 3.3 targets per game, he is RB18/18 and RB18/20 across sites and Bigsby is RB23/24 and RB24/24, they are both equally playable and unplayable in the split scenario in Week 14. Evan Engram is a target monster at tight end but, again, the nature of those targets matters. Overall, Engram draws 7.3 targets per game and has seen an uptick over the past four contests. The tight end has only scored once this season but he sees a stream of chances including in the red zone, Engram caught seven of nine targets last week but failed to convert two chances inside the 20. Engram is TE7 by points and TE8 by value on DraftKings and sits as TE9/7 on the blue site. Parker Washington is WR44/45 and WR43/48 and is no more than a depth dart with Jones at quarterback. The depth receiver gains 7.4 yards per target on 2.5 targets per game but leapt to an unexpected 12 targets in Week 13, gaining a season-high 103 yards on six catches including his first touchdown. Washington peaked at three catches on six targets in Week 9 prior to that outburst, he is an interesting mixer for value if one has a bit of faith in ongoing targeting but that faith is quite thin on this end of this sentence. Devin Duvernay is a $3,000/$4,600 option as WR60/59 and WR62/62 across sites, he caught his second and third passes of the season last week, and first since Week 3, while gaining 23 yards in Week 13. Duvernay barely qualifies as a dart throw slotting in alongside depth options Tim Jones and, if he plays, Josh Reynolds, who was claimed on waivers this week.
The Jaguars are a low-end option as Stack 18 by points and Stack 19 by value on DraftKings and Stack 21/21 on the FanDuel slate, they have little appeal outside of a few shaky standalone shares
Kansas City Chiefs
Game Total: 42.5 / KC -4.0 (23.25 imp.)
Plays: 41.9% rush / 58.1% pass / 24.1 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass / 15.7 ppg / 8.24% sack / 3.24% int
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, DeAndre Hopkins, Kareem Hunt, Xavier Worthy, Noah Gray, Justin Watson (large field), JuJu Smith-Schuster (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Ladd McConkey, Gus Edwards, Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer, Will Dissly, Jalen Reagor (large field), Derius Davis (large field), Kimani Vidal (on/off)
Game Notes: The late game on FanDuel may be a bit of a main slate trap with just a 42.5-point total between the Chargers and Chiefs in Kansas City. The Chiefs are averaging just 24.1 points per game and the Chargers have held opponents to merely 15.7 while posting top defensive marks, the contest could easily trend below public expectations between what have been two playable DFS options in recent weeks. The Chiefs, most particularly, offer name brand appeal and the potential for an explosion despite a team, albeit winning, season to date. Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes is completing 68% of his 35.58 pass attempts per game for 7.0 yards per attempt, a middling average. The star quarterback has 19 touchdown passes but he has also thrown 11 interceptions to mar his season-long output. Mahomes was scuffling without a primary wide receiver prior to the trade for DeAndre Hopkins, the team’s passing game has improved in recent weeks since Hopkins came aboard. Mahomes threw for three touchdowns in each of Weeks 11 and 12 and had a 306-yard day on 26-46 passing but threw just one touchdown pass in Week 13. Mahomes threw a pair of interceptions in Week 11 but those are the only two turnovers in the passing game in the past five games, seemingly righting the ship to at least a stable position. The connection between Mahomes and Hopkins is a work in progress, they had 90 yards with the receiver hauling in four of nine targets last week and Hopkins put a touchdown on the board despite just five catches for 35 yards in Week 12. Still, Kansas City had to be hoping for more direct output from this pairing, the threat of Hopkins, thus far, has been a more significant factor in clearing space for others in the passing game than Hopkins himself has been a contributor. He has major target upside and any-given-slate potential even against a tough defense and ranks as WR30/29 on the FanDuel slate. Mahomes is QB9/14 on FanDuel this week, he is not necessarily worth staying up for but having a piece or two from the late game could be worthwhile from either a raw points perspective with a player like Travis Kelce or for value with a lower-owned explosive weapon like Xavier Worthy. Kelce is TE3/3 on FanDuel in Week 14, he has two receiving touchdowns on 8.4 targets per game and a 6.3-yard average depth of target for the season but has been somewhat on the upswing since a slow start. Kelce caught seven of 13 targets for 68 yards last week and six of eight for 62 yards the week before but has not found the end zone since Week 10 after a stretch of three big performances in a row. Kelce is always a high-end option but his star has faded somewhat in 2024. Worth is WR35/37 across sites, he is playable but would need to deliver a big play and a score to make value even at a cheap $6,000 price tag. Worthy has broken big plays throughout the season, he has two rushing and four receiving touchdowns on 0.9 carries and 5.1 targets per game. Worthy sees a solid 11.7-yard average depth of target, his speed allows him to both open up ground against defenders and to break big plays after the catch or on gadget plays, he is a mixer at low ownership from the late game. Isiah Pacheco ranks as RB16/15 this week after gaining 44 yards on seven carries over 22 snaps in his first action since a Week 2 injury. Kareem Hunt was excellent on heavy volume in Pacheco’s absence but he was sidelined with seven carries for 15 yards last week and seems unlikely to produce. The running back had dipped over three straight week’s leading up to Pacheco’s return and has not scored a touchdown since Week 9. Pacheco is the favored running back as the presumptive starter, Hunt is just RB23/25. Justin Watson and JuJu Smith-Schuster are limited options with little-to-no volume, drawing 2.1 and 1.8 targets per game for the season. Each of the receivers has a touchdown on the board but that has been the limit of their production this year. Noah Gray is more productive as the team’s second option at tight end than either of the depth receivers, he has four touchdown catches on 3.0 targets, gaining 10.4 yards per target in a strong season for annoying DFS gamers. Gray is TE21/21 and is no more than a touchdown dependent dart, but he has paid that ticket several times this season.
The Chiefs are Stack 14 by points and Stack 14 by value on the FanDuel slate in Week 14, with the Chargers also ranking poorly on the slate the late game is best mined for standalone plays or left to Showdown slates
Las Vegas Raiders
Game Total: 47.0 / LV +7.0 (20.0 imp.)
Plays: 34.27% rush / 65.73% pass / 18.6 ppg / 3.7 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass / 24.7 ppg / 6.78% sack / 1.10% int
Key Player: Aidan O’Connell
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers (Q; likely), Tre Tucker, Ramel Keyton, Alexander Mattison (Q; doubtful; on/off), Ameer Abdullah (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, Cade Otton, Sterling Shepard, Jalen McMillan, Rachaad White
Game Notes: The quality of a matchup between the Raiders and Buccaneers will likely come down to the play of Las Vegas quarterback Aidan O’Connell who threw for 340 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a strong Week 13 performance. O’Connell completed 25 of his 35 pass attempts in the big game, he had one other strong start, a 27-40 performance that racked up 227 yards with one touchdown and an interception in Week 6 but he has been in and out of the lineup and the Week 13 game was his first since Week 7. O’Connell threw for 2,218 yards with 12 touchdown passes and seven interceptions on 213-343 passing in 11 appearances last season and has thrown for 795 yards on 75-117 passing overall this year. The quarterback has two solid weapons in the passing game but the team lacks quality up front and at the running back position, hampering the offense on the whole. O’Connell has a connection with Jakobi Meyers, who caught six of 11 targets for 97 yards last week and 10 of 15 for 121 yards in Week 12. Meyers has not found the end zone since Week 8 and has scored only twice all season but was one of the team’s top options with eight touchdowns just last year. Meyers is WR8 by points and WR1 by value on DraftKings and WR4 by points and WR1 by value on FanDuel this week, he is a strong site-to-site play with upside for top-level scoring at a fair value price across both sites against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed big passing performances all year. Meyers is joined by elite rookie tight end Brock Bowers who is TE1 by points and TE2 by value on DraftKings while landing as TE1 across the board on the blue site. Bowers is a premium weekly option at the position, his 9.4 targets per game lead to potential gains by volume, though the rookie has only scored four times this season. Bowers gains 7.8 yards per target and has a solid 26.08% air yards share despite just a 5.6-yard average depth of target overall. The tight end is an excellent option as a standalone play or in stacks this week, he is easy to reach at $6,500/$8,000 across sites and is well worth playing despite his strong probability to be one of the top two owned tight ends on both sites in Week 14. Bowers is too good to pass up against a gettable defense, his upside outpaces what amounts to limited actual public exposure despite the popularity relative to other options, and good chalk is always in play. Individual ownership is far less important than leverage created by the overall combinations in a lineup, the sheer force of numbers creates differentiation with most selections. Running backs Ameer Abdullah and Alexander Mattison are sharing middling carries with 3.3 and 4.3 yards per rush attempt respectively this season. Abdullah has one rushing touchdown and a pair of receiving touchdowns and Mattison has three with another one in the passing game but neither is reliable for volume or production. Mattison is questionable after missing two games, if he does not play the opportunities will be concentrated for Abdullah once again, but the running back put up just 39 yards on 10 carries with 14 yards on two catches in this situation last week. Abdullah carried the ball eight times for 28 yards and caught five passes for 57 yards and a touchdown in Week 12. The running back is RB28/27 and RB31/33 across sites this week, he is not much more than a value dart but would be the preferred option overall and would gain ground if Mattison joins White under the OUT umbrella. Tre Tucker and Ramel Keyton slot in as mix-and-match receivers with the bulk of the volume going to Meyers and Bowers up top. Tucker caught a single pass but took it to the house for 58 yards and a touchdown last week, he has big play ability and caught seven passes for 82 yards against Denver. Tucker will benefit from the absence of DJ Turner but Keyton and Terrace Marshall could poach opportunities. Keyton did not play last week, he has one catch in three appearances for the season. Running back Sincere McCormick could end up leading the running back position in Week 14, he carried the ball 12 times for 64 yards and caught a pair of passes for an additional yard in Week 13 against Kansas City. The undrafted running back has been limited to 17 carries overall, gaining 97 yards for an average of 5.7 per attempt. McCormick is RB32/33 and RB32/35 with a bit of an elevated price tag in Week 14, he does not look like a true value fit unless news swings dramatically in his favor.
The Raiders are Stack 15 by points and Stack 13 by value on DraftKings they are Stack 17/16 on the FanDuel slate and are ultimately a better source of bring-back and standalone plays, primarily named Jakobi or Brock
Update: Alexander Mattison is unlikely to play, thrusting Ameer Abdullah and Sincere McCormick into the same roles they occupied to mixed returns last week
Los Angeles Chargers
Game Total: 42.5 / LAC +4.0 (19.25 imp.)
Plays: 46.72% rush / 53.28% pass / 21.7 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.7 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 19.6 ppg / 5.66% sack / 1.50% int
Key Player: Justin Herbert
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Ladd McConkey (Q; limited/GTD), Gus Edwards, Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer, Will Dissly, Jalen Reagor (large field), Derius Davis (large field), Kimani Vidal (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, DeAndre Hopkins, Kareem Hunt, Xavier Worthy, Noah Gray, Justin Watson (large field), JuJu Smith-Schuster (large field)
Lineup Notes: The Chargers are pulling up the short end of a game with a 42.5-point total, giving them just a 19.25-point implied total that ranks as one of the lowest points of the slate. Los Angeles is not a heavy output offense when it comes to DFS scoring, they have posted merely 21.7 points per game on limited gains in the rushing and passing attack and they have only adequate skill players to stack with quarterback Justin Herbert. The signal-caller has thrown for 7.5 yards per pass attempt on the season with 13 touchdowns and just one interception, a tremendous ratio would look way better if it were doubled. Herbert’s overall limitations are more based on the caliber of his receiving group, with rookie Ladd McConkey and former first round pick Quentin Johnston leading the way. McConkey caught nine of 12 targets for 117 yards as a popular value play in Week 13, he could serve the same purpose as WR16/13 on the FanDuel slate as the top option on the Chargers side of a limited overall contest for DFS quality. This game seems to be better for Showdown slates or for pulling individual players like McConkey rather than stacks on either side. Johnston draws a 12.5-yard average depth of target to McConkey’s 10.2-yard mark and has outscored the rookie with six touchdowns to McConkey’s four scores but McConkey sees 6.8 targets to Johnston’s 4.6. Tight end Will Dissly has one of the other three receiving touchdowns, he draws 4.4 targets per game for a limited 9.74% of the air yards share on a 5.2-yard ADOT but is not a premium pass-catcher at the position. Dissly is a low-cost mixer who has gotten into lineups on value in recent weeks, he slots in as TE11 by points and TE9 by value on FanDuel this week. With McConkey questionable and looking like a game-time decision, we could see more from Joshua Palmer who was held to just one catch for 11 yards on one target last week after catching three passes for 38 yards on eight targets the week before. Palmer has one touchdown this season and has not been above 72 yards or four catches all year but does draw an appealing 15.8-yard average depth of target that spells upside for big plays when he draws a few well-thrown opportunities. Herbert completes 64.0% of his 28.0 pass attempts per game for 7.5 yards per attempt, he should be able to connect with Palmer if the situation arises but Los Angeles has gotten by with a good defense and limited need to score points this season. The Chargers are facing a Kansas City defense that has held opponents to just 3.7 yards per rush attempt, the second-best rush-stopping in the league in a YPA sense. The Chiefs have an aggressive pass rush that has been effective with a 26.5% pressure rate but just a 5.66% sack rate. Kansas City has held opponents to just 19.6 points and 2.2 touchdowns per game with 0.8 per game on the ground, their rush defense has been strong across the board and should have little difficulty bottling up Gus Edwards, Kimani Vidal, and anyone else who carries the ball for Los Angeles. Edwards is RB26/28 and probably does not deserve that ranking, he gained 32 yards on six carries last week after posting just 11 on nine attempts but scoring a touchdown the week before. Vidal is the backup to Edwards with JK Dobbins out, he had four carries for 20 yards last week but has been limited for output and opportunity all season. Jalen Reagor slots in as as a low-end wide receiver dart, he went untargeted over six routes on 13 snaps last week but drew four targets and caught two passes for 20 yards the week before. Reagor would gain a sliver of upside if McConkey ends up sitting out Week 14. Depth options including Derius Davis and DJ Chark land similarly with limited expectation of any targets, let alone more than one. The Los Angeles defense ranks as DST4/4 on FanDuel despite the matchup that could be intimidating by reputation. Given the Chiefs’ limited scoring and the quality that Los Angeles has shown throughout, the team can justify the strong ranking in a game that could easily surprise people by going under an already low total in Vegas.
The Chargers rank as Stack 20/20 on the FanDuel slate, they are not worth much as a unit at the end of the night but there is upside to be drawn from individual players in this game and the Chargers defense is a potential wrinkle
Los Angeles Rams
Game Total: 49.0 / LAR +3.5 (22.75 imp.)
Plays: 40.33% rush / 59.67% pass / 21.2 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass / 18.7 ppg / 6.90% sack / 3.32% int
Key Player: Matthew Stafford
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Demarcus Robinson, Kyren Williams, Colby Parkinson, Tyler Johnson (large field), Tutu Atwell (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, Dawson Knox (on/off; large field), Curtis Samuel (on/off; large field), Mack Hollins (large field)
Lineup Notes: The Rams are a high-priced high-output option this week in a game with a 49-point total and a lot of industry spotlight. There are appealing star options on both sides of the contest, the Bills fill out stacks on both sites and the Rams offer elite pass-catchers for bring back plays or in stacks of their own with veteran signal-caller Matthew Stafford. The quarterback ranks as QB11/11 on DraftKings and QB12/10 on the FanDuel slate but his stack is more highly regarded as a whole in our rankings, floating into the top-five for scoring. Stafford has had two different seasons, overall he has 17 touchdowns against just seven interceptions while completing 66.0% of 34.08 passes per game for 7.3 yards per attempt, numbers that were held down somewhat in the absence of star receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp who both slot in as strong options on this slate. Nacua is WR2 by points and WR16 by value on DraftKings and WR3/10 on the FanDuel slate while Kupp is WR6/17 and WR7/25 at his high price across the industry. The Rams are difficult to reach with a hefty investment required in both receiver spots and for the quarterback but they can put up elite scoring and volume numbers as a three-man unit, Nacua sees 8.7 targets per game and Kupp leads the team with 10.4. Nacua has two touchdowns after missing a chunk of the early part of the year, Kupp is up to five touchdown catches on the season but both are behind expected overall volume in a healthy year. The potential for explosive scoring output remains strong among both of the Rams top receivers, they are an excellent but expensive +2 configuration in stacks with Stafford. Buffalo runs a tight pass defense that sits in the top-third of the league in most categories while limiting opponents to just 6.6 yards per pass attempt and generating a steady pressure rate against quarterbacks but the Rams are the team that overcomes that type of threat with regularity. Kyren Williams is a high-priced running back who gains ground from volume despite limited per-play output with just 4.2 yards per rush attempt on the season. Williams has 10 rushing touchdowns, it is difficult to refer to him as anything but playable, but with the continuing dip in carries – Williams saw just 15 carries for the fourth straight game of either 15 or 16 after seeing more than 19 per game from Week 3 through Week 9. Williams still has touchdown-scoring appeal if nothing else, if the team’s receivers come up just short on a big play he could punch the ball in, but it seems as though he will have to do just that as RB9 by points but RB16 by value on DraftKings and RB9/17 on FanDuel. Demarcus Robinson was mentioned as a sneaky option for the second week in a row in this space in Week 13 and he scored a low-owned – but low-volume – touchdown for the second straight week. Robinson has seen only three targets in each of the last two games but has made the most of them, catching two passes in each contest. In Week 12, Robinson caught two balls for 15 yards and a score, he made a big play to post 49 yards and a touchdown on his two Week 13 catches. Robinson picked up a red zone target in each of those games and has six in the past six games, including two in Week 10, he is more than an afterthought and operates on a big-play-friendly 13.9-yard average depth of target. Robinson actually leads the Rams with seven touchdown receptions this season. Colby Parkinson and Tutu Atwell join Tyler Johnson at the lower-end of targeting, Parkinson has been in and out of vogue in the passing attack with 3.3 targets per game and one touchdown but only limited recent involvement. Atwell has slipped mostly off of the board and drew two targets to Parkinson’s solitary opportunity in Week 13. The Rams are a very top-heavy team, the most obvious approach is also the most sound, rostering Nacua and Kupp with Stafford, or individually in run-back or standalone shares, is ideal for DFS upside, though they are expensive and will be somewhat popular for the value fit.
The Rams rank the same on both sites this week, they are Stack 3 by points but they plummet to Stack 15 by value on high pricing from one end of the industry to the other
Miami Dolphins
Game Total: 44.5 / MIA -6.0 (25.25 imp.)
Plays: 43.14% rush / 56.86% pass / 19.3 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 22.3 ppg / 9.81% sack / 0.59% int
Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, Jonnu Smith, Raheem Mostert (Q; limited), Odell Beckham Jr. (large field), Malik Washington (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Braelon Allen, Tyler Conklin
Lineup Notes: The Dolphins are carrying a 25.25-point implied team total as 6.0-point favorites against a lousy Jets squad in Week 14. Miami has been an entirely different offense with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback this season, their 19.3 points per game can be safely ignored in favor of output like Tagovailoa’s back-to-back weeks over 300 passing yards. The quarterback threw for 365 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 37-46 passing in Week 13 against Green Bay and completed 29 of 40 attempts for 317 yards and a huge four touchdowns in Week 12. Tagovailoa had a big day in Week 11 as well, completing 28 of 36 passes for three scores but failing to reach 300 yards, he threw for “just” 288 in that contest. Overall, he has nine touchdowns against zero interceptions over the past three games while gaining 8.0 yards per pass attempt. For the season, Tagovailoa now has 15 touchdowns and four interceptions in eight appearances. As QB6 by points and QB10 by value on DraftKings and QB6/15 on the FanDuel slate, Tagovailoa’s raw scoring upside is apparent even if his value slips on a per-dollar sense, the same is true of Miami as a stack against a challenging Jets defense. New York is allowing just 4.1 yards per rush attempt and 7.0 yards per pass with a 25.9% pressure rate and a 9.81% sack rate that leads to 37 sacks but just two interceptions on the season. The Jets have held opponents to 22.2 points and 2.2 touchdowns per game, ranking 14th for points and ninth for touchdowns, they limit opposing rushers to just 0.9 touchdowns per game which could impact the production of two-headed monster De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert at running back. Achane has been the far more involved and productive option this season, he gains 4.1 yards per rush attempt and has three touchdowns on the season with another six coming via the pass as one of the top pass-catchers out of the backfield with 5.3 targets per game. Achane is RB4/14 on DraftKings and RB3/10 on the FanDuel slate, he has significant scoring upside that picks up via the pass but his overall potential touch volume is only average. Mostert averages 34% of the snaps with the offense this season, gaining 3.6 yards per rush attempt on 7.2 carries per game, he has a pair of rushing touchdowns but gains just 1.9 yards before and 1.7 yards after contact per attempt on the year. Mostert ranks outside of the top-30 at the running back position on both sites this week, Achane is the more appealing option outside of a few low-probability value darts. Tyreek Hill is the dominant receiver in the Dolphins’ passing game, gaining 7.9 yards per target on 6.9 targets per game over an 11.3-yard average depth of target. Hill sees 36.7% of the team’s air yards share and has scored four times in the passing game this season, it is easy to envision him with several more scores had his quarterback not been absent for several key weeks. Hill is also supposedly playing through pain sustained in an off-the-field incident with police prior to Week 1 but he has not been on the injury report. The star receiver has failed to crack 100 yards since Week 1 but the production has been returning to form somewhat of late. Jaylen Waddle slots in for $5,400/$5,900 as WR25/22 and WR29/23 across sites, playable ranks at a position from which we draw three or four options per lineup. Waddle exploded back onto the scene in Week 12 with 144 yards and a touchdown on eight targets but his volume and output have been down overall, again almost certainly because of quarterback play without the team’s starter. Waddle has seen increased targeting and has been over 100 yards twice for the season with a pair of touchdown catches. Jonnu Smith is a productive pass-catcher at tight end, he has four touchdown catches this season while drawing 6.2 targets per game on a 5.6-yard ADOT for 16.82% of the team’s air yards. Smith has two 100-yard performances in the past three games with an 87-yard game sandwiched in between in Week 12. The tight end has scored three times over that stretch while catching 25 of 30 targets. Smith is an excellent option for continued production as a mid-priced TE5/11 on DraftKings and TE5/6 on FanDuel. With the volume required above them on the depth chart, both Odell Beckham Jr. and Malik Washington amount to not much more than dart-throw options on this slate. Washington has been targeted nine times over the past three games but his six catches have amounted to just 20 yards total. Beckham caught his lone target last week for nine yards but failed to secure any of three opportunities the week before. The veteran has been limited all year and has not scored a touchdown, he peaked with three catches for 15 yards in Week 9. Additional Dolphins players are limited to depth darts at best, they have little to no DFS value in a realistic sense, though Miami’s defense rates well against a Jets team that will be missing lead running back Breece Hall. Miami is D5 by points and D9 by value on DraftKings and D5/6 on the FanDuel slate, the team has a limited 5.20% sack rate that ranks 30th out of 32 teams and their 1.83% interception rate is just middling at 17th, playing Miami’s DST is more about the low-end nature of the Jets against the low-cost defense than anything the defense is likely to do.
Miami is Stack 4 by points but Stack 16 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 7 /19 on the FanDuel slate in Week 14
Update: Raheem Mostert is “trending toward not playing” after a week of practices, securing volume for De’Von Achane and installing Jaylen Wright as the most likely backup for limited touches
Minnesota Vikings
Game Total: 46.0 / MIN -6.5 (26.25 imp.)
Plays: 45.7% rush / 54.3% pass / 24.8 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 8.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 24.3 ppg / 3.61% sack / 1.75% int
Key Player: Sam Darnold
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones First of his Name, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Jalen Nailor, Cam Akers (on/off), Josh Oliver (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud III, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Allgeier (on/off)
Lineup Notes: The Vikings seem inexpensive for a team carrying a 26.25-point implied total that sits slightly above their 24.8 points per game average. Minnesota is in a good situation against a middling Falcons defense that ranks 16th against the run with 4.4 yards per rush attempt but sits eighth against the pass with 6.8 yards per pass allowed, but that has slipped since the midway point of the season, Atlanta ranks in the bottom-third of the league in yards per game and passing touchdowns allowed over the past four weeks. Minnesota’s Sam Darnold is completing 67.0% of his 29.83 pass attempts per game for an excellent 8.2 yards per attempt. While Darnold has not been flawless, he has thrown 23 touchdown passes against 10 interceptions and has looked the part of a franchise quarterback with a strong connection to top receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Darnold ranks 10th overall in quarterback fantasy scoring this week and he sits in the top five by ypa, he should be a weekly consideration at high cost but slots in as a value at just $6,100/$7,600. Darnold is QB4 by points and QB3 by value on DraftKings and sits as QB4 by points and QB1 by value on the FanDuel slate. Jefferson has five touchdown catches on 8.3 targets per game and puts up a terrific 10.4 yards per target on an 11.4-yard average depth, he is a true number one receiver who is an easy pairing with Darnold. Jefferson is WR1 by points on both sites this week, on DraftKings he is WR3 by value and he sits a bit further down at WR8 by value on the FanDuel slate. Jefferson has top-scorer upside and significant achievement-based bonus scoring potential on any given slate. Addison is WR21 by points but climbs to WR14 by value on DraftKings, on FanDuel he is WR22 by points and shoots all the way to WR11 by value on the blue site. Addison has four touchdowns on a terrific big play oriented 14.5-yard average depth of target. The receiver has drawn high-value targets with five red zone opportunities over the last five games, converting three of them for touchdowns. Addison is an excellent second man in +2 configurations and can operate alongside Darnold with plenty of ceiling in skinny stacks. The receiver functions as a standalone or with depth options including tight end TJ Hockenson and running back Aaron Jones, who either got older or had a son named Aaron this week. If you cannot find Aaron Jones in your fantasy data of choice, check for naming issues against changes to Aaron Jones Sr. around the industry. Jones gains a stout 4.5 yards per rush attempt on 15.3 carries per game and adds steady volume in the passing attack to get passably close to our desired 20 potential touches. The running back has been a weekly mid-range value at worst, he slots in as RB11/10 on DraftKings and RB12/12 on the FanDuel slate this week and is playable but not a priority on both sites. Jones has been somewhat held in check by scoring only three touchdowns despite the steady output in the ground game, he has the ability to pop for a slate-bending score on the back of two touchdowns on any slate. Hockenson has not caught a touchdown pass but draws a strong 6.2 targets per game in his limited action this season. The tight end gains 8.2 yards per target on a 7.7-yard average depth and was a heavily-involved fantasy pass-catcher last year, giving us faith in his ability to end the touchdown drought. Hockenson is TE8 by points but TE5 by value on DraftKings and slots in as TE8/TE8 on FanDuel. Jalen Nailor is an inexpensive touchdown dart for a lightning-in-a-bottle play but he has very limited appeal. Nailor has managed to score five touchdowns despite just 2.5 targets per game, his 11.6-yard average depth of target has big play potential but he is held in check by volume with the full depth chart above him. Nailor is a touchdown-dependent dart as WR55/55 and WR61/60. Josh Oliver is a mixer tight end as TE20/18 and TE23/22, he has three touchdowns on the season but sees just 2.2 targets per game on an 8.5-yard average depth of target. Oliver has seen 14 targets over the team’s past four games, he remains an involved option at the position and will see a few chances to score given two red zone targets in the past four games. Trent Sherfield Sr. and Brandon Powell are desperation plays averaging under a target per game, they are not appealing options in stacks or otherwise.
The Vikings are Stack 2 by points and Stack 4 by value on the DraftKings slate, they are Stack 2 by points and Stack 3 by value on FanDuel and they look like a very strong play as a potentially high-scoring team that still offers fair value pricing
New Orleans Saints
Game Total: 41.0 / NO -4.5 (22.75 imp.)
Plays: 45.98% rush / 54.02% pass / 23.0 ppg / 4.6 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass
oppDEF: 5.1 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass / 9.55% sack / 0.29% int
Key Player: Derek Carr
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Alvin Kamara, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Juwan Johnson, Kevin Austin Jr., Foster Moreau (on/off), Cedrick Wilson Jr., Mason Tipton (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Jalin Hyatt, Isaiah Hodgins (large field), Devin Singletary (on/off)
Lineup Notes: While veteran quarterback Derek Carr may not relish facing a strong Giants pass rush he will have virtually nothing to fear from the rest of the New York defense and should not have to do very much to win this matchup against the inept opponent. The Giants have an impressive 9.55% sack rate with 36 on the season, their one interception ranks dead last as a 0.29% interception rate. The team has given up a ridiculous 5.1 yards per rush attempt and 7.5 yards per pass, they are unable to stop opponents with anything approaching reliability and the pass rush is almost a detriment to ceasing opponent’s march down the field. New York is simply one of the worst teams in the league from top to bottom, the insertion of Drew Lock at quarterback should have no major impact on this quality and the Giants will be hard-pressed to hold up their end of a low 41.0-point total. Carr has thrown 14 touchdowns against just four interceptions but his overall output has been severely limited by the loss of multiple top options in the passing game. The quarterback gains 7.8 yards per pass attempt while completing 68.0% of 27.56 passes per game, not outstanding volume but perhaps better than reputation might suggest and more than serviceable against a bad defense. Still, Carr ranks as just QB16/17 and QB18/20 across sites, particularly with limited options for targeting beyond star running back Alvin Kamara out of the backfield. Kamara is RB2/2 on DraftKings and RB2/3 on FanDuel this week after posting 112 yards on 23 carries and catching four of six targets but gaining only seven yards last week. Kamara has major scoring appeal on premium volume for rushing with upside for receptions. The running back scored four times in Week 2 but has not had a multi-touchdown game since, he has six rushing touchdowns this season but none since Week 6. Similarly, Kamara has not scored in the passing game since his Week 2 outburst, he has just one touchdown catch despite averaging 4.9 receptions on 6.6 targets per game. In a game where volume is king, Kamara is still capable of Kong style games, but they have been fewer and further between in 2024, he gains primarily from touches and accruing scrimmage yards each week. Marquez Valdes-Scantling slots in as the team’s top receiver again in Week 14, he is just WR35/40 and WR36/36 across sites but his big play upside makes him an interesting tournament mixer. “MVS” has four touchdowns on a 19.6-yard ADOT that is near the top of the board across the entire slate, he has major big-score potential on any given slate but is not a secret after scoring in each of the past two games. The receiver is a dart throw for continued scoring upside on this slate, he is a mixer in stacks that begin with Carr and Kamara but will be appropriately owned by the field. Juwan Johnson should see the bulk of the targets at tight end with Taysom Hill done for the year. Johnson is TE12 by points and TE9 by value on DraftKings and TE13/14 on FanDuel this week with two touchdowns on the board for the season on 3.3 targets per game, numbers that could climb this week. Kevin Austin Jr. slots in as the second option at wide receiver, he is WR52/47 and WR53/50 and does not show much value upside despite a low price tag on both sites. Austin Jr. caught three of three targets for 31 yards and added nine yards on a rush attempt last week, he has touched the ball seven times total in three games this season. Cedrick Wilson Jr. is similarly low-end from down the depth chart, he has one touchdown on 1.5 targets per game for the season but could see an ongoing uptick with multiple better options off the board for New Orleans. Forster Moreau is a backup tight end option with limited appeal even as a value play, he and Wilson both rank outside of the typically playable range at their positions and are no more than darts on the slate. Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams could pick up opportunities on the ground but have both been limited to only a few touches behind the ridiculous Kamara.
The Saints are Stack 16 by points but Stack 7 by value on DraftKings, they are just Stack 16/18 on the FanDuel slate but Kamara is once again an easily appealing option on both sites despite the limited average touchdown output
New York Giants
Game Total: 41.0 / NYG +4.5 (18.25 imp.)
Plays: 40.81% rush / 59.19% pass / 15.3 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 5.1 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 23.4 ppg / 6.12% sack / 2.90% int
Key Player: Drew Lock
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Jalin Hyatt, Isaiah Hodgins (large field), Devin Singletary (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Alvin Kamara, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Juwan Johnson, Kevin Austin Jr., Cedrick Wilson Jr.
Lineup Notes: Drew Lock will start his second straight game for the Giants who have no other options short of calling Eli Manning out of retirement, assuming he ever found his way off the subway. Lock started last week and was pathetic, like everyone who has played the position for New York this season. The quarterback completed 21 of 32 passes for 178 yards with zero touchdowns and an interception and picked up his only real fantasy value with four rushing attempts yielding 57 yards and a touchdown after two big runs. Lock’s yardage amounted to 5.6 yards per attempt and he does not stand much of a chance to post more, though it would help if Malik Nabers suits up after a Friday injury. Nabers has been fragile in his rookie season, the highly touted wide receiver dominates volume and puts up numbers in the passing game when healthy but his questionable status seems like a true game-time decision going into Sunday morning and he has missed two games while stepping in and out of games with a variety of maladies. Nabers caught eight of 13 passes from Lock last week, gaining 69 yards but failing to score, he is the team’s only true go-to option if he is active but is currently not projected to play in our numbers. Lock is just QB19/14 and QB21/17 across sites, he would gain very little ground if Nabers plays. Tyrone Tracy Jr. is RB15 by points and RB11 by value on DraftKings and sits as RB14/RB11 on the FanDuel slate, the rookie has continued appeal for explosive upside with 5.0 yards per rush attempt for the season but he will continue to lose a few touches to lingering veteran Devin Singletary who also can poach touchdown chances as a coaches’ favorite. Tracy has four rushing touchdowns to Singletary’s three on 4.0 yards per attempt. Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton will be the top two options in the passing game if Nabers does not play. Robinson draws 7.6 targets per game on a limiting 4.3-yard ADOT that requires him to be in the red zone or break a play to create a scoring event. Slayton has a 13.1-yard average depth of target over 5.3 targets per game this season, posting a 26.98% air yards share but he has scored only once given unreliable targeting and limited skills. Robinson is WR26 by points but WR9 by value on DraftKings and WR26/7 on the FanDuel slate, his value diminishes but does not disappear if Nabers plays. Slayton’s value would be more difficult to see in that situation but we expect him to be the second option in the passing game ahead of Jalin Hyatt who has caught just 0.6 of 1.3 targets per game for essentially no production all season. The Giants are a limited team with only a few remotely playable options, they are hardly worth utilizing.
New York is Stack 19 by points and Stack 11 by value on DraftKings and Stack 19/13 on FanDuel
Update: Malik Nabers “may try to play” which is meaningless, he remains a shaky game-time decision
New York Jets
Game Total: 44.5 / NYJ +6.0 (19.25 imp.)
Plays: 36.01% rush / 63.99% pass / 18.8 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 6.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 22.2 ppg / 5.20% sack / 1.83% int
Key Player: Aaron Rodgers
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Braelon Allen, Allen Lazard, Tyler Conklin
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, Jonnu Smith, Raheem Mostert, Odell Beckham Jr. (large field), Malik Washington (large field)
Game Notes: As six-point underdogs in a game with a 44.5-point total on the road in Miami without their leading running back, the Jets are almost certainly going to have to attempt to take to the air to keep up with the Dolphins. New York ranks as a playable stack on the back of this notion, despite a limiting 19.25-point implied team total and the lousy season-long performance of quarterback Aaron Rodgers who is cheap with capable weapons in the passing attack in Week 14. Rodgers slots in as QB13 by points but QB5 by value on DraftKings, he is QB15 by points and QB7 by value on the FanDuel slate. Rodgers has disappointed the limited set of Jets fans who had enough hope to believe in his pipe dream of a season in the first place, throwing for just 6.3 yards per pass attempt on 34.92 attempts per game. Rodgers sees plenty of opportunities to deliver major scoring events for DFS output given that typical volume, but his lac of production for yardage on a per-attempt basis and his 63.0% completion rate leave much to be desired. Rodgers has tremendous receivers in Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams, who are both true number ones who could be ranked in either order. We have Adams as WR4/5 on DraftKings and WR5/4 on FanDuel, with Wilson as WR9/12 on DraftKings and WR11/9 on the FanDuel slate. Wilson has five touchdowns on the board this season and dominates air yards with 38.3% on a 9.1-yard ADOT over 9.8 targets per game. Adams has been targeted 9.4 times per game but is seeing increasing volume and had 12 targets last week. The veteran receiver caught five of those for 66 yards and a touchdown in Week 13 against Seattle, his first score in four games. Wilson had five catches for 41 yards in that contest and has been held to 41 yards or less without a score in three straight. Veteran end zone target Allen Lazard has a strong connection with Rodgers in the passing game, his return to action puts another piece on the board for what should simply be a better offense, even without Breece Hall picking up the slack in the rushing game. Lazard has been out since Week 8 but had five touchdown catches over the first seven weeks of the season. Lazard is one of the players that Rodgers brought to New York, he has underappreciated touchdown-scoring potential and make for an interesting pivot from one of the primary wide receivers, given the scoring potential. Lazard is WR46/48 and WR48/43 and would need to find the end zone to make value. Tight end Tyler Conklin is TE15 by points but TE4 by value for just $2,900 on DraftKings, his $4,900 price ranks as just TE17/TE16 on FanDuel. Conklin draws 4.1 targets per game on a limited 4.8-yard average depth of target but has managed to score twice on the season. The tight end can be a forgotten man in the passing attack but his cheap price is an interesting level for value without dipping into the Jets’ running back pool. Braelon Allen should be the primary play from that limited group in the absence of Breece Hall. Allen gains just 3.6 yards per rush attempt on 5.6 carries per game, he scored twice early in the season and looked momentarily like a threat to poach weekly volume from Hall before receding into the woodwork. Allen’s limited overall output is difficult to gauge in this changed role, he gained 32 yards and scored on 12 carries in his heaviest volume game against New England in Week 8 and has demonstrated capable hands in the passing game so he could serve as a three-down back for portions of the game. Allen has cost-and-opportunity based potential for just $5,000/$5,200 as RB20/17 on DraftKings but RB20/RB8 on the FanDuel slate where he could get interesting in a hurry. Isaiah Davis is RB26/22 and RB27/21 as the team’s second option at the position this week, he gains 4.4 yards per attempt on very limited volume this season but will be the clear second option to start. Additional depth players including Malachi Corely and Xavier Gipson are no more than dart throws with Lazard back in the fold, they are limited for volume even in his absence and any touchdown upside will likely evaporate in his return.
The Jets are Stack 11 by points but Stack 8 by value on DraftKings, on FanDuel they are Stack 12 by points but Stack 4 by value in what could be a better spot than it appears to be on paper for the New York passing game
Philadelphia Eagles
Game Total: 45.0 / PHI -13.5 (29.25 imp.)
Plays: 56.59% rush / 43.41% pass / 26.7 ppg / 5.1 ypa rush / 8.1 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass / 30.5 ppg / 5.26% sack / 1.85% int
Key Player: Jalen Hurts
Setting: at most two / at least one (this allows for both “naked” Jalen Hurts lineups and multi-player stacks, utilize with max/min exposure rules)
Team Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith (Q; limited), Grant Calcaterra, Jahan Dotson, Johnny Wilson, Kenneth Gainwell (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Chuba Hubbard, Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen, David Moore, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Jonathon Brooks (on/off)
Lineup Notes: The Eagles continue to offer undeniable weekly appeal as one of the top options by raw projection and it is easy to follow them to every new price plateau. With superstar running back Saquon Barkley, who has outrun all possible superlatives this season, priced at $10,000 on FanDuel and $9,000 on DraftKings it would be easy to think his value is untenable but the running back still stands as one of the top individuals on both sites. The difficulty lies in stacking multiple premium Eagles together, quarterback Jalen Hurts is pricey at $7,900/$9,200, the blue site tax is particularly aggressive on the Eagles’ passer. Combining Barkley and Hurts is prohibitively expensive on FanDuel, limiting the ability to add either AJ Brown or Devonta Smith for Hurts +2 configurations to capitalize on the team’s multi-touchdown upside in a game with a 45.0-point total in which they are favored by 13.5. Philadelphia’s 29.25-point implied team total outpaces their solid 26.7 points per game, which makes sense when one remembers they are facing the worst defense in football. Carolina is allowing 4.8 yards per rush attempt and 7.5 yards per pass, the 27th and 23rd-ranked marks in the game and they give up a league-worst 30.5 points and second-worst 3.4 touchdowns per game. The Panthers are a bend-and-break defense that allows teams to pile up yardage on easy gains while punching-in equal opportunity scoring with 1.5 rushing touchdowns and 1.9 passing touchdowns allowed per game. Philadelphia is perfectly poised to obliterate the Carolina defense, the team should score early and often in a Week 14 romp in which they easily rank as the top stack by raw scoring. Hurts has premium running back numbers with a dozen rushing touchdowns, one more than the team’s actual premium running back, Barkley, who slots in with 11 on his ridiculous 6.1 yards per rush attempt. Barkley has been an unstoppable yardage machine this season, turning over opposing defenses for 124.9 yards per game on his way to what could be a rushing record. Barkley carries the ball 20.5 times per game and adds 3.1 potential touches via targeting, both his volume and his output within those opportunities are entirely unrivaled. Barkley is RB1 by points and RB3 by value despite the high price on DraftKings, he is RB1 by points and RB4 by value at the even higher relative price on FanDuel. Hurts, meanwhile, is QB2 by points but slips to QB15 by value on DraftKings, he is QB2 by points and holds up as QB5 in a salary-based look on the blue site. Hurts has thrown 14 touchdowns against just five interceptions while gaining 8.3 yards per pass attempt over 8.0 intended air yards per attempt and has a terrific connection with big play star receiver AJ Brown and excellent b-side Devonta Smith. The duo have combined for eight touchdown catches, with four each, while both missing a few games along the way, they are an excellent tandem when they are both active and either makes for a fine individual play across sites with the team’s excellent upside for touchdown scoring in this matchup. Brown is pulling in 4.9 of 6.9 targets per game, gaining a fantastic 12.9 yards per target over a 13.5-yard ADOT, Smith is next to him with 9.2 yards per target on a 10.4-yard ADOT over 6.2 targets each week. One potential path to value is via the tight end position, where starter Dallas Goedert will be out again in Week 14. Goedert’s absence should thrust Grant Calcaterra into a more prominent role, the second-string tight end plays 61% of the team’s snaps on average but draws just 1.7 targets per game overall and fewer when Goedert is healthy. Calcaterra caught all nine of his targets over Weeks 7 through 9 when Goedert was last absen and he had a 67-yard game on four of four catches in Week 6. The tight end catches passes at a high rate and could see an uptick in volume with a scoring opportunity if a red zone look comes along. Calcaterra is TE17 by points and TE19 by value on DraftKings and TE19 by points but TE12 by value on FanDuel where he could be a sneaky path to a Hurts+2 configuration. Jahan Dotson and Kenneth Gainwell have been low-end players for DFS scoring this season, they see only limited opportunities with Dotson drawing 1.6 targets per game and catching only 0.9 of them and Gainwell carrying the ball merely 3.9 times per game behind Barkley’s absurd production and volume. It would be easy to envision a few garbage-time opportunities for either player but it is difficult to guess at which and not something that we would project. Dotson will have competition in the deep end of the depth chart with Johnny Wilson in action, Wilson has a touchdown on the season and Dotson does not but Wilson averages just 0.7 targets per game.
The Eagles are Stack 1 by points on both sites, they are an excellent option for raw scoring but their price drives the value down to Stack 10 by points-per-dollar on both sites
Pittsburgh Steelers
Game Total: 44.0 / PIT -7.0 (25.5 imp.)
Plays: 51.21% rush / 48.79% pass / 24.7 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 7.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 8.0 ypa pass / 25.7 ppg / 8.23% sack / 1.12% int
Key Player: Russell Wilson
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: George Pickens (Q; likely), Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Pat Freiermuth, Calvin Austin III, Mike Williams, Van Jefferson (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Elijah Moore, Jerome Ford, Nick Chubb (on/off), Michael Woods
Game Notes: The Steelers are heavily favored against a Browns team that has been improved in passing yardage and scoring but not necessarily overall with their mid-season quarterback change. If nothing else, one can find optimism that the Browns will either hang in the game and push Pittsburgh scoring or they will find ways to deliver the ball directly to the Steelers in prime field position, leading to excellent opportunities for upside for quarterback Russell Wilson and his skill players in stacks and standalone plays. Wilson ranks as QB8 by points and QB4 by value on DraftKings and QB8/9 on FanDuel, his value on the former is compelling when stacked with George Pickens, who slots in as a mid-range play at receiver. Pickens has three touchdowns on the board while drawing a monster 41.69% air yards share, near the top of the heap for this slate as a whole. The receiver has seen fewer uncatchable balls with Wilson at quarterback, his 13.1-yard average depth of target screams big play ability and he should be aligned for significant success against a Browns defense that plays to his strengths. Pickens gains 3.4 yards per route run against single-high defense, a scheme Cleveland runs more than half the time, and he is the overwhelming first read favorite. In addition to his excellent matchup and big play target shape, Pickens sees significant red zone targeting with 16 looks inside the 20 this season, despite the lack of touchdown output he is a strong weekly scoring option. Running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren split volume on the ground, Harris carried the ball 16 times each of the past two weeks and 18 times in Week 11 while Warren picked up just three carries last week but had 11 the week before and 9 in the game before that. Warren also sees involvement in the passing game with four targets in each of the past three games. This is not the Detroit backfield, neither of these options is as prolific a scorer as either of the Lions running backs, Harris has four rushing touchdowns and Warren has three receiving touchdowns, they combine for well short of even one of the excellent backs from Detroit when it comes to touchdowns and they are unspectacular with 4.0 yards per rush attempt each. Pat Freiermuth is TE11/10 on DraftKings and TE12/13 on FanDuel, he looks solid for a bit of cheap touchdown-based upside if Pickens fails to score once again. Freiermuth has four touchdown catches on 3.9 targets per game with a 5.4-yard average depth of target, he is an option in the red zone but also sees involvement up and down the field and is capable of breaking big gains. Freiermuth has five gains of more than 20 yards on the season. Van Jefferson, Mike Williams and Calvin Austin III slot in as playable touchdown-dependent darts, though none of them ranks inside the top-40 at the wide receiver position in any category. Jefferson caught one big pass for 43 yards last week but has scored only once all season, Austin has a touchdown in each of the last two games and is probably the most interesting member of the trio as WR54/50 and WR57/59, and Williams went untargeted for the third straight game despite running 13 routes last week. After Pickens, the most appealing Steelers play may be the team’s DST option against the turnover prone mostly low-scoring Browns. With Winston throwing the ball to opposing teams frequently throughout his career there is strong potential for chaos with a team that already ranks highly among interception rate leaders. Pittsburgh’s sack rate is only middling but they are capable of finding their way to the quarterback to pad scoring and they have held opponents to just 18.7 points and 2.1 touchdowns per game, the sixth and seventh-ranked rates in football. Cleveland averages just 18.2 points on offense, though they have been better for pass yards and scoring with Winston running things. The Steelers DST ranks as D1 by points and D4 by value on DraftKings and they are D1/D5 on FanDuel.
The Steelers are Stack 12 by points but Stack 17 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 13 by points and Stack 11 by value on FanDuel, the best approach to this team may be to roster Pickens in standalone shares while also considering the DST
San Francisco 49ers
Game Total: 44.0 / SF -3.5 (23.75 imp.)
Plays: 47.35% rush / 52.65% pass / 22.5 ppg / 4.9 ypa rush / 8.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 20.0 ppg / 7.75% sack / 2.52% int
Key Player: Brock Purdy
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel, Isaac Guerendo, George Kittle, Ricky Perasall, Patrick Taylor Jr. (on/off), Kyle Juszczyk (on/off; large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet
Lineup Notes: While their record does not look good in the standings, from a DFS perspective, the unkillable 49ers have been teaching the league that they are living the first act of a zombie movie in 2024. No matter what they have been hit with, the 49ers simply keep on coming. No matter what limbs are chopped off they simply drag themselves forward, gaining yards, scoring touchdowns, and eating the flesh of slower, weaker, less willful teams they manage to overcome. San Francisco gains 4.9 yards per rush attempt across a variety of rushers, they will be mostly unwrapping barely-used Isaac Guerendo as the season’s most popular waiver-wire claim in full-season leagues ahead of Week 14. The team adds a healthy 8.2 yards per pass attempt, ranking them fifth through the air and sixth on the ground in a yards-per-attempt basis. The 49ers have failed in punching the ball into the end zone as frequently as numbers would suggest they should, their 2.3 touchdowns per game rank just 19th despite the steady gains for yardage. The 49ers lost Brandon Aiyuk at the top of the passing attack, Deebo Samuel has been either absent or limited in most of the team’s games, and excellent receiving running back superstar Christian McCaffrey was lost to the White Walkers in the team’s snowfest game last week. Still, San Francisco comes on with an aggressive passing game behind quarterback Brock Purdy and pass-catching duo Jauan Jennings and George Kittle at wide receiver and tight end. Jennings stepped ably into Aiyuk’s role once he was healthy, he caught just three passes but gained 56 yards last week, caught five for 40 yards in Week 12, and had a big 10-catch 91-yard performance with a touchdown in Week 11. Jennings exploded for 11 catches and 175 yards with three touchdowns back in Week 3 against the Rams, he has three double-digit target games on the season including that one and two of his last four games. Jennings remains a high-priority receiver and he outrates Samuel as WR15 by points but WR2 by value on DraftKings and WR10 by points and WR2 by value on FanDuel. Samuel has failed to gain even 25 yards in any of the team’s last three games, overall he has been limited to 8.7 yards per target on 5.5 targets per game and 16.56% of the team’s air yards with one receiving touchdown and just 2.9 yards per rush attempt with a rushing touchdown. Samuel will probably see a few additional carries beyond his typical outlay of just 2.5 opportunities, particularly if Guerendo fails to impress in close situations. Still, Samuel is just WR17/13 and WR15/17 across sites. Kittle is a strong weekly play for a touchdown, the tight end has found the end zone eight times in 10 games but was held to just one catch on only two opportunities in Week 13 against Buffalo. Kittle scored in three straight games prior to the dip in production, with a missed game and a bye week in the mix, he is a frequent option when the team crosses the 20, drawing 17 red zone targets overall on the season. Kittle ranks as TE4 by points and TE12 by value at a high DraftKings price, he is similarly expensive as TE6/10 on the FanDuel slate but there is appeal in stacking Kittle and Jennings with Purdy. The quarterback completes 66.0% of his 29.45 passes per game for an excellent 8.3 yards per attempt and has 13 touchdown passes and eight interceptions this season. Purdy is QB5 by points, he is elevated by excellent surrounding skill players in a high-ranking stack on both sites this week, and slots in as QB7 by value on DraftKings and QB8 by value on FanDuel. Guerendo is one of the top running back plays of the week, particularly in a points-per-dollar sense. The $5,400/$5,200 option slots in as RB13/5 on DraftKings and RB11 by points but RB2 by value for the cheap price on the FanDuel slate. The rookie is averaging 5.9 yards per attempt on extremely thin volume with two touchdowns on the season despite just 42 total carries. Guerendo will be crushingly popular as the value darling of the industry on both sites this week but he is more likely to be good chalk than bad. Behind the rookie, the 49ers have capable Patrick Taylor Jr. and Israel Abanikanda, who was added on waivers. Taylor Jr. is far more likely to see involvement, he has carried the ball seven times this season and was a limited backup in Green Bay for the past three years. Taylor peaked with 14 snaps on offense over which he carried the ball five times for 16 yards and caught one pass for 12 yards on his lone target of the season in Week 6 against Seattle, he has been inactive since Week 8 but could return to immediate secondary carries at the running back position. Taylor would be a danger to poach a touchdown if things break poorly for Guerendo owners. Abanikanda is a far lesser threat despite a $4,000 price tag, unless news breaks in his favor prior to game-time. Of course, no discussion of the 49ers indefatigability would be complete without mention of Ricky Pearsall who embodies their unkillable nature after a literal gunshot wound to the chest held him out for the first few games of the season. Pearsall returned to gain 7.3 yards per target on a 9.9-yard average depth of target over 3.0 opportunities per game, he has one touchdown on the board in his rookie season and falls behind Jennings, Samuel, and Kittle in the pecking order while retaining DFS scoring value. The final player worth a minor mention is fullback Kyle Juszczyk who could pick up an odd carry in scoring position but is more likely to simply see his typical 1.8 targets and go about his day. The veteran fullback has a rushing touchdown that came on one carry back in Week 6, he has four carries all year and gains 5.0 yards per attempt on the ground and 5.7 per target. Juszczyk is probably best for Showdown formats but he has a bit of bent touchdown appeal as an extremely thin mixer lottery ticket as RB41/41 and RB45/45, which positions him mostly off of the board.
The 49ers are Stack 9 by points and Stack 2 by value despite the missing pieces this week, they are Stack 6 by points and leap to Stack 1 by value at cheap pricing on FanDuel in Week 14
Seattle Seahawks
Game Total: 44.5 / SEA +2.5 (21.0 imp.)
Plays: 36.32% rush / 63.68% pass / 22.7 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass / 21.6 ppg / 8.11% sack / 1.56% int
Key Player: Geno Smith
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njiba, Tyler Lockett, Zach Charbonnet, Noah Fant, Jake Bobo (large field), AJ Barner (on/off), Kenny McIntosh (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: James Conner, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Elijah Higgins (on/off), Trey Benson (on/off)
Lineup Notes: As slight underdogs to the Cardinals in a game with a mid-level 44.5-point total, the pass-happy Seahawks could be an interesting consideration for NFL DFS scoring in Week 14. Seattle slides into action averaging 7.5 yards per pass attempt in an attack that is excellent at marching down the gridiron prior to stalling when it comes to cracking through for receiving touchdowns, leaving some of that work to the team’s ground game. Quarterback Geno Smith is typically fairly priced for someone averaging 270.08 yards per game and 7.4 per attempt on the season. Smith has somehow managed to throw only 13 touchdowns this season while throwing almost as many interceptions with 12 balls lost to opponents. The typically efficient accurate quarterback is still completing 69.0% of 36.33 passes per game, the Seahawks offense is high-volume and has the upside to burst through for more output on any given slate. Smith works with a capable set of receivers to land as QB9 by points and QB6 by value on DraftKings, he is QB10 by points but claws his way to QB6 by value on FanDuel as well. Zach Charbonnet will fill in at running back for injured Kenneth Walker III this week, giving him value-based potential over what should be the bulk of the workload and scoring attempts. Charbonnet averages just 3.5 yards per rush attempt over his 6.3 carries per game but he has already managed to score five rushing touchdowns with another one added in the passing game. Charbonnet joins the slate at a price that is simply too low for his role, he would have been a playable touchdown dart with a healthy Walker, with a clear path to touches Charbonnet is easily the top value running back on both sites, he lands as RB10 by points and RB1 by value on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf are the top-two options in the passing game, with veteran Tyler Lockett not far behind. Smith-Njigba has taken a slight lead as WR11/8 and WR9/18 across sites on the back of a steady 8.5 yards per target over 8.1 targets per game and 28.64% of the team’s air yards in an expanded downfield role. Smith-Njigba is no longer relegated to short routes, his 9.0-yard average depth of target puts him in big play territory but he has only managed four receiving touchdowns on the season. Metcalf is WR12 by points but WR11 by value on DraftKings and WR12/16 on FanDuel, though he has scored just three times this season the receiver is the team’s biggest overall threat in the passing game on a 37.61% air yards share derived from a 12.9-yard average depth of target. Lockett matches Metcalf stride for stride for depth, seeing a 10.4-yard average depth of target but only 5.2 targets per game for a lower-end 20.82% air yards share. The receiver has a pair of touchdown catches on the year and remains dangerous, particularly for large field tournament play as a mid-level WR38/37 and WR47/51. Lockett can break those rankings on any slate and has sneaky upside for those who are inclined toward risk. Noah Fant is a mixer tight end at TE16/16 and TE18/19 across DraftKings and FanDuel. Fant gains a solid 8.6 yards per target on four targets per game but his ceiling has been capped by the limited volume and lack of scoring, he has zero touchdown catches this season. Kenny McIntosh will back up Charbonnet, he has peaked at nine offensive snaps in Week 3 against Miami, gaining 11 yards on three carries while drawing zero targets over three routes run. McIntosh is an extremely low-end option from the bottom of the price scale at $4,000/$4,000 across sites, he ranks as RB33/RB29 and RB36/RB27 but could gain ground rapidly if he steps into more touches than expected. AJ Barner and Jake Bobo are low-end mixers good for minimal shares in a large crop of Seattle stacks, they do not draw significant targeting, though Barner has found the end zone twice on the season over 2.3 targets per game.
Seattle ranks highly on both sites, particularly with the baked-in running back value. The Seahawks are Stack 6 by points but Stack 1 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 5 by points and Stack 2 by value on FanDuel
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game Total: 47.0 / TB -7.0 (27.0 imp.)
Plays: 42.63% rush / 57.37% pass / 27.9 ppg / 5.1 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 27.8 ppg / 5.83% sack / 1.24% int
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Mike Evans, Bucky Irving (Q; likely), Cade Otton, Sterling Shepard, Jalen McMillan, Rachaad White, Sean Tucker, Trey Palmer (Q) (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, Ramel Keyton, Alexander Mattison (on/off), Ameer Abdullah (on/off)
Lineup Notes: The return of receiver Mike Evans has not exactly resulted in the return of the high-flying Buccaneers offense from early this season. Tampa Bay has remained effective overall but they have leaned more into the run in recent games while playing at a more plodding pace than throughout the first half of the season. Tampa Bay is scoring 27.9 points per game and will face a defense allowing a matching 27.8 per game, and the Buccaneers are 7.0-point favorites in a home game, they should deliver on a 27.0-point implied team total. Evans did have a strong individual performance in Week 13, catching eight passes on 12 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown but the team’s overall passing output was limited to 235 yards and the lone score. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has hit a bit of a dip over the past three games, throwing a total of just two touchdown passes after throwing at least two touchdowns in every game from Week 4 through Week 9. Mayfield still has a strong 25-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the season while completing a terrific 71.0% of his 33.92 pass attempts per game, the volume, scoring, and overall production remain strong and the Tampa Bay stack is highly playable around Mayfield shares in Week 14. Mayfield is QB3 by points and QB2 by value on DraftKings and ranks the same on the FanDuel slate against a Las Vegas defense that allows just 6.9 yards per pass attempt but yields 27.8 points and 2.9 touchdowns per game, with 2.0 of those touchdowns coming via receptions. Evans has big play upside against a bad overall pass defense, his 11.1-yard average depth of target is appealing for accumulation of yardage and big play potential and he has seven touchdowns despite the missed games this season. Evans will be joined by running backs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White who gain 5.5 and 4.1 yards per rush attempt for the season. The rookie, Irving, has been the far more productive running back on the ground while White picks up volume and PPR scoring potential in the passing game. The running back sees 9.4 carries and 3.9 targets per game while Irving carries the ball 11.1 times and sees 3.1 targets each week. Irving has six rushing touchdowns to White’s two scores, but White has been in the end zone four times on touchdown catches to Irving’s zero. Overall this is another either or neither situation, Irving ranks as RB12/15 and RB13/16 and remains the more talented and ultimately playable bur White’s passing game volume and PPR scoring plus ongoing carries also yield value opportunities as RB17/13 and RB19/19. Cade Otton has four receiving touchdowns on 6.7 targets per game but just a 4.3-yard average depth of target. Otton is not a big downfield target but he can pick up scoring easily on red zone opportunities, though he failed to score on two such chances last week. Otton is TE6 by points but leaps to TE1 by value for just $4,400 on DraftKings, he is TE7 by points and TE2 by value on FanDuel for $5,600 against the soft Raiders defense. Otton is an appealing tight end in one of the more interesting tournament stacks of the week, his ownership is not invisible but he is unlikely to be in the top-three most popular options at the position. Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard will slot in next to Evans once again, with Trey Palmer questionable to play as a depth option. If Palmer does not go, a few targets may end up with low-ranked Rakim Jarrett. Between McMillan and Sterling we have a slight lean toward Sterling as WR42/41 and WR41/41 with McMillan at WR41/32 and WR49/44 standing out as a better DraftKings value option. Shepard caught four passes for 42 yards last week and five the week before, though he gained merely 16 yards in that contest. McMillan caught two passes last week and one in Week 12, he has one touchdown this season but it came on one big catch in Week 1. Shepard sees 3.9 targets per game on an 8.9-yard average depth of target while McMillan has a slightly deeper 13.4-yard average depth of target for 14.63% of the team’s air yards despite his limited 3.4 targets per game. Either receiver is a mixer in an abundance of Buccaneers but neither is a priority or much more than a touchdown-dependent dart throw. Tampa Bay’s defense rates strongly for points but is a low-end value option as D6/19 and D7/21 across sites with expectations of Las Vegas doing some scoring to push this game up to its total.
The Buccaneers are Stack 5 by points and Stack 6 by value, they slot in as Stack 4 by points and Stack 5 by value on FanDuel and look like a top option, though a top-heavy one, on both sites
Tennessee Titans
Game Total: 40.0 / TEN -3.5 (21.75 imp.)
Plays: 43.09% rush / 56.91% pass / 18.4 ppg / 4.3 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 8.4 ypa pass / 28.3 ppg / 5.32% sack / 1.22% int
Key Player: Will Levis
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyler Boyd, Chig Okonkwo, Tyjae Spears (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Brian Thomas Jr., Evan Engram, Travis Etienne Jr., Parker Washington, Tank Bigsby (on/off), Devin Duvernay (large field)
Lineup Notes: The Titans are on the “strong” side of a 40.0-point game with as -3.5-point favorites at home against low-end Jacksonville and Mac Jones in Week 14. Still, Tennessee is not exactly a powerhouse with Will Levis at quarterback. Levis checks in as QB12 by points on DraftKings and QB14 by points on FanDuel on the back of a season with just 6.9 yards gained per pass attempt. Levis has thrown a dozen touchdown passes against nine interceptions while completing 64.0% of a limited 26.67 attempts per game, he is a low-end weekly DFS option but he does shine for value against a terrible Jaguars defense this week. For better or worse, a $5,000/$6,600 price tag has Levis ranked as QB1 by value on DraftKings and QB4 by value on FanDuel despite the limited overall point projections. The quarterback is very likely better on paper than in practice this week, his production overall has been lackluster to say the least but he only needs to find Calvin Ridley on a few big connections to hit DFS paydirt at the low cost. The Titans, like Levis, rank highly for value as a unit this week despite their limited overall appeal as a collection of individuals. Ridley is the team’s most appealing skill player as the leading receiving weapon, he has an untouchable 50.74% air yards share in the offense, picking up 7.3 targets on a 16.1-yard ADOT that makes him possibly the biggest of big play threats among premium receivers. Of course, air yards and opportunities are not everything, Ridley has managed to score only three times this season, catching just 3.6 of his 7.3 opportunities per game for 7.8 yards per target. Ridley has immense any-given-slate upside with mixed results, making him nearly ideal for DFS tournament play. It is possible that Nick Westbrook-Ikhine will outpace Ridley for public popularity this week, after all it is is Westbrook-Ikhine who has eight touchdowns on the season, all of which have come since the team’s Week 5 bye, with a dip to three catches for 31 yards and no touchdown in Week 10 as the only week in which he failed to produce a touchdown catch since the bye. Westbrook-Ikhine scored twice last week, catching three of eight passes for 61 yards in the process. The receiver remains second on our list but he has clearly been significantly involved in the limited scoring that the Titans have managed lately. Westbrook-Ikhine has gained buzz and checks in at a cheap $4,700 on DraftKings but $6,200 on FanDuel. Of course, with all the attention going to Westbrook-Ikhine and Ridley, it will no doubt be Tyler Boyd who finally breaks through for a big performance. Boyd has zero touchdowns despite 3.6 targets per game on a 7.2-yard average depth of target and involvement in every game this year. The veteran ranks as just WR43/35 and WR51/47 across sites. Chig Okonkwo has two touchdowns but sees just 3.2 targets per game, though he did spike six targets in last week’s contest and makes for a fair red zone option. Okonkwo is a limited TE14 by points but stands tall for value as TE7 for just $3,000 on DraftKings, he is just TE16/17 on the FanDuel slate where he lands at a $5,100. When playing Levis stacks for value, it would make sense to go all-in by adding Okonkwo’s near-minimum price to either lead wide receiver option on DraftKings. Tony Pollard slots in as RB7 by points and RB6 by value on DraftKings and RB8/7 on the FanDuel slate, he has been solid in spurts this year but has also provided middling scores in games that also include backup Tyjae Spears. Pollard gains 4.3 yards per rush attempt on 16.0 carries per game and gets above the threshold for value with another 4.3 targets per game kicking him up to 20.3 potential touches. Spears adds another 5.5 carries and 2.3 targets at the running back position and chews a bit of volume and scoring potential from the starter but Pollard is still the primary option and a playable value in the top-10 across the board. With Jacksonville’s low-end offense in town, the Titans defense could be playable at least as a value DST for just $2,800/$4,000. Tennessee is D7 by points and D5 by value on DraftKings and D8/8 on FanDuel.
The Titans rank as Stack 13 by points but look dangerously appealing as Stack 3 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 11 by points and Stack 6 by value on FanDuel where things crumble somewhat around higher pricing
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