NFL DFS – Main Slate Optimizer Groups & Stack Rankings + Full Game Notes (wip) – Week 13 – Thanksgiving Slate

This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.

This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video

All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io

Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning

Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.

2024 Week 13 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings

The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.

Week 13 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups

Overview

Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.

Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.

DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options

Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.

Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.

Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.

FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.

Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.

Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.

DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules

This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.

• QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
• optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
• QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)

Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements

Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.

• Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
• Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
• optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)

We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.

Sunday Updates

Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.

NFL DFS Week 13 Thanksgiving Features & FREE Projections

• Week 13 Thanksgiving FanDuel & DraftKings Projections
• Week 13 Thanksgiving Above/Below – Key Picks
• Week 13 Thanksgiving Quarterback Scoring & Value Rankings
• Week 13 Thanksgiving Running Back Scoring & Value Rankings
• Week 13 Thanksgiving Pass-Catcher Scoring & Value Rankings
• Week 13 Thanksgiving Defense Scoring & Value Rankings

Construction Concept

Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.

Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 13

The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.

The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.

Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when a situation has an extremely highly projected running back that does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.

Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams.

Chicago Bears

Game Total: 47.5 / CHI +10.0 (18.75 imp)

Plays: 41.98% rush / 58.02% pass / 20.1 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 6.3 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 16.6 ppg / 5.94% sack / 3.54% int

Key Player: Caleb Williams

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet, Roschon Johnson (on/off), Gerald Everett (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Q; likely), Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery (Q; likely), Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Tim Patrick, Brock Wright (on/off)

Game Notes:

Dallas Cowboys

Game Total: 37.5 / DAL -3.5 (20.5 imp)

Plays: 33.94% rush / 66.06% pass / 20.1 ppg / 3.7 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass

oppDEF: 5.2 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass / 22.9 ppg / 10.56% sack / 0.33% int

Key Player: Cooper Rush

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Rico Dowdle, CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, Luke Schoonmaker, KaVontae Turpin, Ezekiel Elliott (on/off), Brevyn Spann-Ford (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Malik Nabers, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Wan’Dale Robinson, Theo Johnson, Devin Singletary (on/off), Darius Slayton, Jalin Hyatt

Game Notes:

Detroit Lions

Game Total: 47.5 / DET -10.0 (28.75 imp)

Plays: 51.15% rush / 48.85% pass / 32.7 ppg / 4.7 ypa rush / 9.0 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass / 19.7 ppg / 7.98% sack / 2.79% int

Key Player: Jared Goff

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Q; likely), Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery (Q; likely), Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Tim Patrick, Brock Wright (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, Cole Kmet

Game Notes:

Green Bay Packers

Game Total: 47.5 / GB -3.0 (25.25 imp)

Plays: 50.95% rush / 49.05% pass / 26.2 ppg / 4.8 ypa rush / 8.2ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass / 21.5 ppg / 5.59% sack / 1.97% int

Key Player: Jordan Love

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft, Bo Melton (large field), Chris Brooks (on/off), Emanuel Wilson (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, Odell Beckham Jr., Malik Washington (large field)

Game Notes:

Miami Dolphins

Game Total: 47.5 / MIA +3.0 (22.25 imp)

Plays: 45.14% rush / 54.86% pass / 19.5 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 20.3 ppg / 7.32% sack / 3.22% int

Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, Odell Beckham Jr., Malik Washington (large field), Jaylen Wright (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft, Bo Melton (large field)

Lineup Notes:

New York Giants

Game Total: 37.5 / NYG +3.5 (17.0 imp)

Plays: 41.24% rush / 58.76% pass / 14.8 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 8.2 ypa pass / 29.0 ppg / 8.16% sack / 2.54% int

Key Player: Drew Lock (Tommy DeVito is a game-time decision)

Setting: exactly one

Team Group: Malik Nabers, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Wan’Dale Robinson, Devin Singletary (on/off), Darius Slayton, Theo Johnson, Jalin Hyatt (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Rico Dowdle, CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, Luke Schoonmaker, KaVontae Turpin, Ezekiel Elliott (on/off)

Lineup Notes: 

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