This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.
This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video
All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io
Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning
Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.
2024 Week 12 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings
The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.
| TEAM | OPP | FD$ | FDpRank | FDvalRank | DK$ | DkpRank | DKvalRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | CAR | $35,900 | 1 | 10 | $30,700 | 1 | 10 |
| MIN | ATL | $30,100 | 2 | 3 | $25,700 | 2 | 4 |
| LAR | BUF | $32,700 | 3 | 15 | $27,700 | 3 | 15 |
| TB | LV | $29,800 | 4 | 5 | $25,500 | 5 | 6 |
| SEA | ARI | $28,300 | 5 | 2 | $23,100 | 6 | 1 |
| SF | CHI | $26,700 | 6 | 1 | $22,700 | 9 | 2 |
| MIA | NYJ | $32,200 | 7 | 19 | $27,000 | 4 | 16 |
| BUF | LAR | $29,600 | 8 | 8 | $26,400 | 8 | 18 |
| ARI | SEA | $29,400 | 9 | 7 | $24,800 | 7 | 5 |
| ATL | MIN | $29,700 | 10 | 17 | $24,900 | 10 | 14 |
| TEN | JAC | $26,600 | 11 | 6 | $21,800 | 13 | 3 |
| NYJ | MIA | $26,500 | 12 | 4 | $23,600 | 11 | 8 |
| PIT | CLE | $28,000 | 13 | 11 | $24,200 | 12 | 17 |
| KC | LAC | $27,500 | 14 | 14 | $0 | 0 | 0 |
| CHI | SF | $26,600 | 15 | 12 | $23,000 | 14 | 12 |
| NO | NYG | $27,500 | 16 | 18 | $21,100 | 16 | 7 |
| LV | TB | $27,100 | 17 | 16 | $22,000 | 15 | 13 |
| CLE | PIT | $24,800 | 18 | 9 | $21,000 | 17 | 9 |
| NYG | NO | $23,800 | 19 | 13 | $19,600 | 19 | 11 |
| LAC | KC | $26,200 | 20 | 20 | $0 | 0 | 0 |
| JAC | TEN | $25,900 | 21 | 21 | $21,200 | 18 | 19 |
| CAR | PHI | $25,400 | 22 | 22 | $21,600 | 20 | 20 |
Week 12 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups
Overview
Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.
Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.
DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options
Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.
Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.
Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.
FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.
Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.
Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.
DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules
This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.
- QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
- optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
- QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)
Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements
Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.
- Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
- Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
- optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)
We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.
Sunday Updates
Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.
NFL DFS Week 12 Features & FREE Projections
- Week 12 FanDuel & DraftKings Projections
- Week 12 Above/Below – Key Picks
- Week 12 Quarterback Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 12 Running Back Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 12 Pass-Catcher Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 12 Defense Scoring & Value Rankings
Construction Concept
Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.
Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 12
The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.
The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.
Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when a situation has an extremely highly projected running back that does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.
Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams.
Arizona Cardinals
Game Total: 48.0 / ARI +1.0 (23.5 imp)
Plays: 49.48% rush / 50.52% pass / 23.8 ppg / 5.2 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 23.8 ppg / 6.63% sack / 2.16% int
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: James Conner, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Trey Benson (on/off), Elijah Higgins (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, Zach Charbonnet (on/off), Noah Fant (Q; likely)
Game Notes: As only slight underdogs in a game with a healthy 48.0 total, the Cardinals land at a somewhat appealing 23.5 implied points and a top-10 points and value rating as a stack on DraftKings in Week 12. Arizona has weapons at every position, the Cardinals just do not stack up points as effectively as some of the top overall teams in football, their scoring average is just 23.8 points per game. Kyler Murray has the Arizona offense gaining 7.5 yards per pass attempt on 69.0% passing over a sub-standard 27.6 attempts per game. Were it not for volume limitations, Murray would be a more effective option, in a game that favors passing upside he could find his way to a healthy fantasy score in Week 12. The quarterback has thrown a dozen touchdown passes against just three interceptions on the season and he has another four scores via rushing touchdowns. Murray averages 8.1 yards per rush attempt over 4.6 carries per game, he is a weapon in all respects and should be regarded as an option this week as QB6 by points and QB9 by value on DraftKings and QB7/QB10 on FanDuel. Murray will be working in tandem with RB5/5 on DraftKings and RB7/7 on FanDuel, James Conner, as well as TE3/7 on DraftKings and TE3/4 on FanDuel in Trey McBride. The duo get heavily involved in the team’s scoring, Conner has five rushing touchdowns on the season while gaining a solid 4.4 yards per rush attempt over 15.9 carries per game. The veteran approaches our goal of 20 potential touches per game via 3.0 targets each week but he has failed to convert a receiving touchdown to this point. Conner has scored five times on the ground in 10 games. McBride is one of the more frequently targeted tight ends in football, drawing 7.2 opportunities per game to lead the Cardinals. With 8.5 yards per target and a solid 5.4 receptions per game, McBride provides results for the targeting and he is a strong downfield weapon on a 7.5-yard average depth of target for 24.37% of Arizona’s air yards. Somehow, given all of that involvement and solid weekly productivity, McBride is yet to find the end zone in 2024. The Seattle defense has been solid in limiting pass yardage overall this season but McBride stands out on his weekly upside for scoring, his lack of touchdown production simply will not continue, he has been targeted in the red zone five times over the team’s last four games. Rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. slides in for fair value as well, ranking as WR19/30 and WR26/37 across sites, with slightly more scoring potential on the PPR site. Harrison has six touchdown receptions while dominating the Arizona air yards with a 41.37% share. Harrison operates on a 14.0-yard average depth of target, he is an excellent big play receiver with a strong weekly ceiling and he can be found at a slightly lower price point than comparable but more proven talents. Michael Wilson is on the edges of playability as WR36/36 and WR38/38 across DraftKings and FanDuel respectively. The wide receiver sees 77% of the team’s snaps on average and draws 4.4 targets per game on a 10.5-yard average depth of target as the team’s functional third option in the passing game. Wilson has three touchdowns on the season and is a cheap way to get radically different in approaching this offense. With Wilson and Harrison not separated by many points of per-dollar value, he is an interesting consideration in stacks. Running back Trey Benson is a mix-in value who ranks as RB30/27 and RB31/29 at a position we for which we do not typically delve into such depths. The running back gains a solid 4.4 yards per rush attempt on 5.4 carries per game and has one rushing touchdown but he is purely relegated to a backup role with an average snap rate of just 17.0%. Beyond the obvious, Arizona simply offers dart-throw level plays such as receiver Greg Dortch, who sees 3.3 targets per game but on just a 5.7-yard average depth of target that limits his scoring potential to red zone targets and broken plays. Dortch has one receiving touchdown this season and slots in as WR58/59 and WR69/68. Elijah Higgins and Emari Demarcado are backups who would need something to happen above them on the depth chart to find true value, though each could see a target or two, they average 1.5 and 1.4 respectively. Zay Jones has run only six routes in each of the last two games as the team’s nominal fourth wide receiver, he is not truly on the board for much. The Arizona defense does not provides value this week, ranking in the upper teens across both sites for points and value. Against a Seattle defense that has allowed 4.8 yards per rush attempt but just 6.5 yards per pass while yielding 23.8 points per game, there should be room for success for Cardinals stacks, at worst they are a strong source of one-off plays with Conner looking like a potential standout.
The Cardinals are Stack 9 by points and Stack 8 by value on DraftKings, they land as Stack 12 by points and Stack 14 by value on FanDuel
Carolina Panthers
Game Total: 43.0 / CAR +11.0 (16.0 imp)
Plays: 41.78% rush / 58.22% pass / 16.7 ppg / 4.6 ypa rush / 5.7 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass / 22.1 ppg / 5.09% sack / 1.89% int
Key Player: Bryce Young
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Chuba Hubbard, Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen (Q; limited), Jonathon Brooks (Q; likely)(on/off), Jalen Coker (Q; dnp), Ja’Tavion Sanders
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, Noah Gray (large field), JuJu Smith-Schuster (large field)
Game Notes: The Panthers do not stand out for much, but the potential return of veteran receiver Adam Thielen could put a cheap touchdown on the board if things break properly. Thielen is currently questionable to play as we approach the middle of Saturday night, he has been out since Week 3 but is reportedly highly likely to play. The receiver scored in Week 3, catching three of five targets for 40 yards and his lone touchdown of the season. He had 49 yards on three catches in Week 1 and 20 yards on a pair of receptions the following week but was targeted at least three times in every early game with Bryce Young at the helm. Young has completed 60.0% of his 30.6 attempts per game but gains just 5.4 yards per pass attempt and has thrown just four touchdowns against six interceptions. The second-year quarterback has one rushing touchdown on the season with only 2.1 attempts per game. There has not been much upside for fantasy production from the position overall with this team but it has been worse on the average with Young at the wheel. The quarterback threw a touchdown and did not throw an interception in Week 10 prior to the bye, the first time that happened in three games since his return to the starting job. Young completed 15 of 25 attempts for just 126 yards in that game. In Week 9 he had 171 yards on 16-26 passing with one touchdown and one interception and he threw for a season-high 224 yards with two touchdowns but also two interceptions in Week 8, completing 24 of 37 attempts. Young will be facing a Kansas City defense that allows just 3.6 yards per rush attempt and 6.7 yards per pass, the third and eighth-best marks in the game. The Chiefs have a mid-ranked sack rate but they pressure the quarterback at an aggressive 27.0% clip, something that should keep Young rattled and on the move, which should lead to mistakes. As QB 17/17 and QB19/20 across sites, Young is essentially unplayable, while correlated skill players like Thielen are fringe options. The veteran lands as WR37/40 and WR44/40 across sites, he would almost certainly need a touchdown to find value. With Chuba Hubbard leading the way and gaining reinforcement from coach-speak through the week despite the lingering presence of Jonathon Brooks, the Panthers have a clear lead running back to mash into the solid Kansas City front. Hubbard drops in as RB18/21 and RB20/21 across sites despite his solid 5.1 yards per rush attempt, six rushing touchdowns, and one receiving touchdown over 19.6 potential touches per game. Brooks has yet to find his way into a game as he recovers from an ACL injury but the rumor mill has him suiting up this week. If Brooks is active there will be a bit of impact to the potential touch count for Hubbard in an already ugly situation. If Brooks does not play there will be backup-only carries for Raheem Blackshear in the absence of injured Miles Sanders, in which case Hubbard could remain interesting but in a bad matchup. Xavier Legette is WR32/35 and WR34/30 across sites, he has mix-and-match value as a downfield target in the passing game with an 11.1-yard average depth of target. Legette sees 4.5 targets per game and has four touchdown receptions on the season, two of which came with Young at quarterback in Weeks 8 and 9. Legette caught four passes each of those weeks, for 34 and 33 yards, with a touchdown in each contest. Jalen Coker is inexpensive but only has one touchdown on the board with 3.7 targets per game. The receiver did spike his way to eight targets in the team’s most recent game but between the return of Thielen and a quad injury that kept him out of Friday practice, Coker is not much more than a dart throw in Week 12. Ja’Tavion Sanders is TE18/20 and TE19/20 across sites, he scored the lone receiving touchdown in Week 10 but had just two catches for eight yards on two targets. Sanders was targeted five times and caught four passes for 87 yards in an interesting Week 9 but he averages 3.9 targets as nothing more than a positional mix-in for large field play. Carolina’s defense is not in play against the reloaded Kansas City offense.
Carolina is Stack 19 by points and Stack 20 by value on DraftKings, they are dead last as Stack 22/22 on the FanDuel slate
Chicago Bears
Game Total: 39.0 / CHI +3.5 (17.75 imp)
Plays: 43.32% rush / 56.68% pass / 19.4 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 6.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.6 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 17.0 ppg / 8.66% sack / 4.34% int
Key Player: Caleb Williams
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen (Q; likely), Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift (Q; likely), Cole Kmet, Roschon Johnson (on/off), Gerald Everett (on/off; large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor (large field)
Game Notes: The Bears are an interesting weekly tournament play on the immense upside of their core of pass catchers and scuffling rookie would-be sensation Caleb Williams. The Bears are in flux after transitioning to an interim offensive coordinator last week, Williams’ first game under the new regime yielded mixed results. The quarterback threw for 231 yards on 23-31 passing and did not turn the ball over but he also failed to throw a touchdown pass for the fourth week in a row. Williams ran the ball nine times, tying a season-high, and his 70 yards on the ground were tops for the year to date but he once again did not find the end zone on the ground. The quarterback did find blue skies a few times during the season, he threw for 363 yards on 33-52 passing with two touchdowns and two interceptions in Week 3 against the Colts, had 304 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in Week 5 against the Panthers, and threw for a season-high four touchdowns on 23-29 passing against the Jaguars. Not one of those three defenses is near the quality of the Vikings, a team that has held opponents to 17.0 points per game while putting up an impressive 16 interceptions for a 4.34% interception rate that leads the league. Minnesota should challenge Williams all day, the team’s 8.66% sack rate is sixth-best in football and they have an aggressive 29.6% pressure rate that will keep the rookie moving. Williams has a chance to succeed, the Vikings rank just 15th by yards per pass attempt but they are a solid bend-don’t-break defense against the pass and Williams has shown very little in his first season. The quarterback has been a detriment to an otherwise excellent group in the passing game, veteran receivers DJ Moore and Keenan Allen bookend rookie Rome Odunze but the trio combined for just six touchdown catches over the first 10 games of the season, with half of those belonging to Moore. Allen checks in as questionable to play but is trending in the right direction overnight on Saturday, if he goes he looks like a mixer for points-per-dollar value on the DraftKings slate where his price is down to just $4,900. Allen is WR27 by points but WR18 by value on the DraftKings slate in current rankings but that could swing slightly upward in the morning update. Moore is WR19 by points and WR21 by value on DraftKings and WR26/21 on FanDuel, he leads the team with three touchdown receptions and has a solid 7.3 targets per game average on an 8.6-yard ADOT that garners him 25.93% of the team’s air yards but he is simply a functional piece on Sunday’s main slate. Regular readers will recognize a refrain, Odunze is a potentially tremendous value option on this slate. The inconsistent receiver has demonstrated explosive upside and he operates on an extreme big play average depth of target of 14.0 yards. Odunze has been limited with just 3.4 receptions per game despite 6.0 targets but his 34.61% air yards share is the team-leading mark by nearly 10 percentage points. The rookie standout flashed upside in Williams’ first breakout game in Week 3, scoring what stands as his only touchdown of the season and cracking 100 yards for the first of two bonus performances. Odunze has any-given-slate upside for more than 100 yards and a pair of big plays with touchdown potential, he is cheap at $4,800/$5,400 and lands as WR24 by points and WR12 by value on DraftKings and WR28 by points and WR11 by value on FanDuel and he could gain upside with more targets if Allen is limited or unable to play. Tight end Cole Kmet sees 3.7 targets per game on a 7.5-yard average depth of target, he has three touchdowns on the board already and represents a fair weekly value with upside at his position. Kmet is TE13/12 and TE15/16 this week but seven targets over the past two games say he has the potential to be a bit more. Roschon Johnson slots in with backup value and limited potential as an on/off play in stacks with the expectation of only six to eight touches. The running back sees a few chances per game with involvement in the passing attack for 1.8 targets and on the ground for 5.1 carries per game, over which he has been held to just 3.0 yards per rush attempt. Johnson has managed to score five rushing touchdowns this season, but his value would rely entirely on finding the end zone again as a positional dart throw behind starter D’Andre Swift. If the currently questionable Swift does not play, Johnson would gain significant ground as an inexpensive $4,600 presumptive starter on DraftKings. For $6,100 on FanDuel his value would be slightly less impactful be available. Gerald Everett is a low-value option with just 1.1 targets per game, none of the other depth options will be involved if all of the starters are active but Tyler Scott and Travis Homer could see minimal action with missing parts on the depth chart above them. Neither player has been at all relevant to scoring this season.
The Bears are just Stack 15/15 on DraftKings and Stack 17/18 on FanDuel, they are more valuable in pieces than as a stack unless Williams can deliver a big performance against a good aggressive pass defense
Dallas Cowboys
Game Total: 45.0 / DAL +10.5 (17.25 imp)
Plays: 32,82% rush / 67.18% pass / 18.7 ppg / 3.8 ypa rush / 6.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass / 22.1 ppg / 8.59% sack / 1.34% int
Key Player: Cooper Rush
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: CeeDee Lamb, Rico Dowdle, Brandin Cooks, Luke Schoonmaker, Jalen Tolbert, KaVontae Turpin
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin, Noah Brown, Zach Ertz, Austin Ekeler (on/off), Dyami Brown (large field), Luke McCaffrey (large field), Olamide Zaccheaus (large field)
Game Notes: The Cowboys have lost 34-6 and 34-10 in their two games with Cooper Rush starting at quarterback but the team is walking the plank once again instead of turning to Trey Lance. Rush threw 55 passes in Week 11, completing 32 of them for a solid 354-yard performance but he managed just one touchdown and threw an interception. He was far more limited on just 23 pass attempts against the Eagles in Week 10, completing 13 for 45 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. Rush will see a Washington defense that carries a solid 8.59% sack rate but allow s4.9 yards per rush and 7.4 yards per pass attempt with 1.2 rushing and 1.5 receiving touchdowns and 22.1 points allowed per game. The quarterback has enough in the tank to help one of his skill players reach their scoring potential but the odds that he leads a slate-winning stack are extremely thin. Rush is QB20/20 on DraftKings and QB22/22 on FanDuel this week. CeeDee Lamb is the skill player who would benefit the most from competence at the quarterback position. Lamb drops in with a $7,300/$8,400 price tag across sites, putting him at WR3 by points and WR7 by value on DraftKings and WR9/12 on FanDuel this week. The receiver hauled in eight of 12 targets for 93 yards last week but was not the recipient of the lone touchdown. Lamb has seen at least 10 targets in every game since Week 6 and has a dozen or more in four of those five games. The star receiver has four touchdown catches on a team-leading 10.6 targets per game, he dominates the air yards with a 27.41% share, with Jalen Tolbert landing second on a 20.65% share. Tolbert has three receiving touchdowns as an effective option on a deep 12.5-yard average target, he is a mixer for a big play but can also lose opportunities to gadget plays to options like KaVontae Turpin who demonstrated his explosive scoring ability in the team’s most recent game. Turpin scored the team’s lone touchdown on three catches for 86 yards, with the touchdown coming on one big 64-yard play. Turpin is a player who excels with the ball in his hands, as evidenced by his experience in the return game, he has two receiving touchdowns and is a big play threat despite just 3.1 targets per game. Rico Dowdle should gain from facing a pliable defense that allows a 30th-ranked 4.9 yards per attempt. Dowdle gains 4.3 yards per rush attempt on 10.3 carries per game but has not scored in the rushing attack, he does have three receiving touchdowns and reaches the mid-board with 3.8 targets per game padding his potential touches. Dowdle is not expensive given the lack of gains on the ground, his overall opportunity is cut somewhat by 6.1 attempts per game still going to veteran Ezekiel Elliott despite just 3.3 yards per rush attempt. Elliott poached two rushing touchdowns in his limited involvement. Dowdle ranks as RB14 by points but climbs to RB9 by value on DraftKings, he is RB16 by points and shoots all the way to RB6 by value on FanDuel in a good opportunity for success. Elliott is far less playable with just seven or eight potential touches available. Turpin is a good mix-in as WR61/57 and WR63/62 but he is no more than a big play dart in the end. The team will be without Brandin Cooks once again, so depth receivers such as Ryan Flournoy and Jonathan Mingo offer a bit of value. Mingo drew four targets in Week 11 and Flournoy saw three but ran twice as many routes with 35 run over 51 snaps (65%). Mingo caught zero passes while Flournoy had two catches for 19 yards despite Rush’s heavy volume and productive yardage day. Tight end Luke Schoonmaker provides a good points-per-dollar option at the position, his $2,500 price tag on DraftKings stands out as TE10 by value on the site and he is TE11 by value for $4,500 on FanDuel. Schoonmaker has seen just 2.1 targets per game overall as primarily a second-string or blocking option but he spiked to 10 targets in the absence of starter Jake Ferguson last week and has similar potential in Week 12. Schoonmaker caught six of those targets for 56 yards but did not score last week, he saw just one target in the red zone over the first 11 weeks of the season but the team targets the position in the end zone and Schoonmaker could reap rewards in a different situation this week.
Dallas is just Stack 17 by points and Stack 18 by value on DraftKings and Stack 20/20 on the FanDuel slate this week
Denver Broncos
Game Total: 40.5 / DEN -6.0 (23.25 imp)
Plays: 43.83% rush / 56.17% pass / 21.4 ppg / 4.3 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 28.5 ppg / 5.67% sack / 1.58% int
Key Player: Bo Nix
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Courtland Sutton, Javonte Williams, Devaughn Vele, Marvin Mims Jr., Audric Estime (on/off), Troy Franklin, Lil’Jordan Humphrey (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, DJ Turner, Ameer Abdullah
Game Notes: The Broncos have been a value-based option on recent DFS slates and the same could be true against a gettable Las Vegas defense in Week 12. Denver ranks just 20th overall with 21.4 points scored each week on 0.7 rushing and 1.6 receiving touchdowns. The Broncos rushing game has been badly limited throughout much of the season, even coming off of a decent performance that saw him gain 59 yards and score a touchdown on nine carries and add 28 yards on 4-5 receiving, running back Javonte Williams is a question mark for value in limited chances with 4.0 yards per rush attempt for the year. Williams has three rushing touchdowns and went into last week’s game with expectations of losing his job to Audric Estime who picked up value-based projections across the industry before the team bailed out on their plan and gave him just six carries on which he gained a mere 16 yards. Estime put up 53 yards on 14 rushing attempts in a more productive Week 10 that earned him the fanfare but his lack of opportunities last week relegates him to backup status once again, neither running back is appealing but Williams leads as RB20/14 and RB22/20. Courtland Sutton is a strong weekly value for targets with an average of 7.7 with upside into double-digits. Sutton operates on a 12.8-yard average depth of target, giving him a favorable 41.22% air yards share as the major weapon for the team’s Bo Nix led passing game. Nix and Sutton have connected for three touchdowns this season but only one in the last four games despite Sutton catching six or more passes in four straight. Nix targeted his primary weapon eight times last week, connecting on seven of those attempts for 78 yards, they had six connections for 70 yards and a touchdown the week before and went over 100 yards in each of Week 8 and Week 9. Sutton ranks as WR11 by points and climbs to WR4 by value on DraftKings, he is of similar value as WR13 by points and WR7 by value on the blue site. Nix has thrown for 6.4 yards per pass attempt while completing a solid 66.0% of his 32.45 attempts per game, he has not been bad and has begun piling up touchdown scoring upside at affordable prices, though those have climbed of late. Nix is QB9 by points and QB12 by value on DraftKings and QB10/13 on FanDuel. While he has 14 touchdown passes against just six interceptions on the year and scored four times on the ground to pad his upside, most of the value has slipped away as production has become more reliable. Nix is playable, particularly in skinny stacks with Sutton, but he does not pop off of the page on either DFS site this week. Devaughn Vele caught four passes for the second week in a row, gaining 66 yards and continuing to show productivity after missing the first five weeks. Vele has a receiving touchdown on the board and sees 4.6 targets per game, gaining a solid 8.8 yards per target on his 7.4-yard ADOT. The cheap receiver is a mixer as a standalone and gains ground as a second-man in +2 with Nix configurations of Denver stacks. He is WR38/38 and WR39/41 across sites this week. Marvin Mims Jr. is WR43 by points but WR27 by value on DraftKings where he could be interesting given an 11.4-yard average depth of target. Mims sees just 1.9 opportunities per game while Troy Franklin draws 1.5 on a similarly deep 13.6-yar average depth of target for 15.05% of the air yards. Franklin has two receiving touchdowns on the board this season while Mims has a single score. Neither downfield dart throw is worth more than a a shot or two in the largest of lottery-ticket style tournaments in Week 12. The team spread two tight end targets over three players who saw more than 25% of the snaps last week, Lucas Krull was untargeted over 29% of the snaps while Adam Trautman and Nate Adkins were targeted once each on 60% and 48% respective snap shares. The position has been low-volume this season but Adkins’ catch did go for a touchdown, his second of the year, and Trautman has one touchdown reception on the board as well.
The Broncos are Stack 14 by points and Stack 12 by value on DraftKings and Stack 15/16 on the FanDuel slate, they are a mid-board option that plays best as a thin +1 approach with options for +2 downfield configurations but limited tight end and running back mixers
Detroit Lions
Game Total: 49.5 / DET -7.5 (28.5 imp)
Plays: 51.76% rush / 48.24% pass / 33.6 ppg / 4.7 ypa rush / 9.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 22.7 ppg / 6.54% sack / 2.24% int
Key Player: Jared Goff
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Tim Patrick (large field), Kalif Raymond (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell
Game Notes: The Lions tore apart last week’s slate, with everyone getting in on the bloody feast. The team was the leading stack in projections by a wide margin as a massive favorite in a game carrying a point-total above 50. While they are not favored by a double-digit margin in this week’s matchup against the Colts, a healthy 49.5-point game total, a capable offensive opponent, and a 28.5-point implied total all suggest a strong chance that Detroit simply repeats the trick in Week 12. The Lions are football’s highest-scoring team with 33.6 points and a whopping 4.2 touchdowns per game after last week’s massacre. The team ranks first with 9.2 yards per pass attempt and eighth with 4.7 yards per rush attempt gained by their stellar running back tandem. The duo leaps to second overall with 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game, both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have weekly upside, they have combined for 18 rushing touchdowns on the season, with the veteran Montgomery carrying 10 of those but Gibbs leading the way with 6.0 yards per attempt on 13.3 carries per game. Gibbs adds 2.9 targets per game to hit 16.2 potential touches over which he delivers more value than most players at the position. Montgomery is right on his heels with 2.3 targets and 15.9 potential touches per game, they split league-leading positional volume in terms of touches and it shows in their productivity, they combined for another three rushing touchdowns last week but function better for DFS in separate lineups from one another. With all of the volume and scoring that the team derives from the lethal rushing game, one would not expect such a productive passing attack but Jared Goff has thrown for 249.2 yards per game on just 27.0 pass attempts. Goff completes 73.0% of his passes for a massive 9.2 yards per attempt, he has been excellent this season with 20 touchdown passes though he has lost nine interceptions in his aggressive approach. The quarterback has terrific weapons at his disposal, in addition to the two-headed fire-breathing running back monster, the team has one of the league’s best receivers in Amon-Ra St. Brown and a top tight end in returning Sam LaPorta, with Jameson Williams operating as a major big play threat down the field. LaPorta returns without an injury designation ahead of Sunday after missing Week 11 with a shoulder sprain. The tight end has seen just 3.6 targets per game this season but is up to three touchdown catches after a spike in productivity and involvement in two of his last three games. LaPorta was targeted six times in both Week 8 and Week 10, catching six for 48 yards and a touchdown the first time and three for 66 yards and another score the second time around, with a mediocre two catches for 28 yards in between in the Week 9 game. LaPorta’s value was beginning to bounce back before he missed a week, he could be slightly further off the public’s radar than his potential might suggest as TE5 by points and TE4 by value on DraftKings, he is TE11 by points and TE8 by value on the FanDuel slate. St. Brown made a statement in Week 11, catching 11 of 11 targets for 161 yards and two touchdowns, giving him nine on the season. The receiver leads the way with 7.8 targets per game, though that was just his second game with double-digit targeting in a fairly distributed offense. St. Brown has massive weekly value as Goff’s favorite option in an excellent passing attack, he is WR1/1 on DraftKings and WR1/2 on FanDuel once again this week and he remains a strong play on both sites. Williams was the perfect complement to shares of St. Brown, exactly as it was drawn up in both this space and our Above/Below column in Goff+2 stacks last week. On six targets, Williams caught four passes and posted 124 yards and a touchdown, including a huge 64-yard scamper for a score. Williams is an explosive option on any given slate and his price barely reflects his performance potential. Williams missed two weeks and still has four receiving touchdowns while garnering 32.18% of the team’s air yards over a 15-yard average depth of target and 5.1 targets per game. Tim Patrick and Kalif Raymond become nothing more than value darts to pad depth stacks with everyone active above them, there are only so many targets to go around in any football game. Patrick did see four opportunities over 25 routes and 53 snaps last week with LaPorta out as a higher-end target, presumably those looks would go back toward the tight end position, where Brock Wright had just one chance last week. Patrick caught three passes but for only 36 yards, he was not relevant and is a difficult option on a 7.8-yard average depth of target. Raymond is a similarly short depth option. Detroit should benefit from facing a Colts defense that allows 22.7 points and 2.5 touchdowns per game on 4.4 yards per rush attempt and a 25th-ranked 7.6 yards per pass. Indianapolis has a bottom-half sack rate but a top-half interception rate on the season but they are a low-threat defense overall.
The Lions are Stack 1 by points and Stack 3 by value on DraftKings, where the Eagles game does not exist. They are Stack 2 by points and Stack 4 by value on FanDuel and they make a terrific option again in Week 12
Green Bay Packers
Game Total: 44.5 / GB -5.5 (25.0 imp)
Plays: 49.67% rush / 50.33% pass / 25.0 ppg / 4.9 ypa rush / 8.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 5.1 ypa pass / 22.2 ppg / 7.49% sack / 3.43% int
Key Player: Jordan Love
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft, Bo Melton (large field), Chris Brooks (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel Sr., Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, Jordan Mason (on/off)
Game Notes: In what could have been one of the top matchups of the week, the Packers and 49ers will battle in chilly but not freezing temperatures with rain in the area but not fully expected. Green Bay is favored by 5.5 in a home game with an appealing 44.5-point total, The contest loses a bit of NFL game value with the absence of San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy, but this remains a strong spot for DFS upside on both sites with everything from stars to dart throw plays at seemingly every position. The Packers offer the league’s deepest group of receivers to work with premium gunslinger Jordan Love, who has thrown for 16 touchdowns against an unsightly 11 interceptions this year. Love averages 8.1 yards per pass attempt on a steady steam of volume with 32.13 attempts per game and 8.8 intended air yards per attempt but he has been hit with inconsistency this year. Overall, this remains an appealing spot and Love’s price has dipped conspicuously on the FanDuel slate. The quarterback ranks as QB3 by points but QB15 by value on DraftKings, he is QB4 by points but QB1 by points-per-dollar value on FanDuel where his price is merely $7,300. Love could find success against a middling San Francisco defense this week, the 49ers allow just 6.5 yards per pass attempt and 4.3 yards per pass, ranking fifth and ninth for yards allowed per attempt but falling to the middle of the league with 2.5 touchdowns and 22.2 points allowed. Their scoring defense is solid with a 3.43% interception rate, however, something with which Love will have to contend given his aggressive approach and tendency toward risk. As WR15/16 and WR17/25, Jayden Reed is the leading option in the team’s deep attack, he averages 4.9 targets per game and gains 13.1 yards per target, one of the top rates for a regular option in football. Reed is an excellent big play receiver who does a lot of work after the catch, his excellent per-target gains come on a more conservative 8.6-yard average depth of target. Reed has four touchdown catches on the season, tied for second among the team’s pass catchers with Dontayvion Wicks who reached that mark despite on-and-off volume and involvement depending on status above him on the depth chart. Wicks is a high-end dart throw who will see a few chances each week, he draws 4.4 targets on average but saw just one last week, three in Week 9 and two in Week 8. Wicks peaked with 13 targets over 43 routes on 56 snaps as a starter in Week 4, gaining 78 yards on five catches with a pair of touchdown catches, but he has not caught a pass since Week 8 when he had two grabs for 11 total yards. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs have been eclipsed for touchdowns by the receivers above and below them on the depth chart, as well as by the team’s tight end Tucker Kraft whose five touchdown receptions lead the team’s pass catchers. Watson and Doubs have a pair of touchdown catches each, everyone is at least somewhat involved in scoring and ongoing opportunity. Watson sees more limited opportunities with 3.4 targets per game on average but he has a monster 17.0-yard average depth of target that racks up a 20.55% air yards share as the team’s big play threat down the field. Doubs is no slouch in that department next to his counterpart, posting a 12.7-yard average depth of target for 23.28% of the air yards on 5.2 targets per game. All of the receivers are at least playable dart throws with big play potential, Watson is WR22/20 and WR24/22 across sites, Doubs slots in right next to him as WR34/31 and WR36/34, and Wicks is WR47/49 and WR54/49 with a bit more upside than his rankings would suggest if he sees a slight random target uptick. Kraft is TE12 by points and TE15 by value on DraftKings and TE13/14 on FanDuel, he draws a solid 4.0-target average but it comes on just a 5.4-yard average depth with much of his potential extracted from touchdown dependency. Veteran Josh Jacobs is RB8 by points and RB13 by value on the DraftKings slate and RB10/9 on FanDuel, he is an option in both places for a second-share running back given a steady 20-touch potential on 17.6 carries and 2.9 targets per game. Jacobs gains 4.8 yards per rush attempt and has scored four times on the ground and once in the passing game. The running back continues to show bounce despite the tread on his tires, he has gained 2.6 yards after contact per rush attempt this season. Chris Brooks, Emmanuel Wilson, and Bo Melton are low volume options down the depth chart, they are highly unlikely to see enough involvement to matter for DFS scoring.
The Packers are Stack 11 by points and Stack 13 by value on DraftKings and Stack 13 by points but Stack 5 by value with Love’s dip in pricing on the FanDuel slate
Houston Texans
Game Total: 41.0 / HOU -9.0 (25.0 imp)
Plays: 42.74% rush / 57.26% pass / 23.5 ppg / 4.3 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass / 26.3 ppg / 6.64% sack / 1.07% int
Key Player: CJ Stroud
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, John Metchie III, Dare Ogunbowale (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyler Boyd, Chig Okonkwo
Lineup Notes: The Texans have been a frustrating stack through much of the year, primarily with the underwhelming nature of quarterback CJ Stroud’s season amidst a variety of injuries to his receiving group. Stroud has thrown just 12 touchdown passes against seven interceptions this season, conservative marks for a passer who was more impactful for scoring and yardage last year. He has gained 7.2 yards per pass attempt and 238.91 yards per game on the season but the lack of overall output has hampered stack performance in several strong-looking spots. Stroud drops into a matchup against a capable Titans defense as QB7 by points but QB16 by value on DraftKings and QB8/7 on FanDuel. Tennessee has been good against at limiting yardage with just 4.1 yards allowed per rush attempt ranking sixth and 6.4 yards per pass attempt sitting second, but they have allowed a 26th-ranked 26.3 points per game on 3.0 touchdowns, also 26th-ranked. Tennessee is a classic break-don’t-bend defense, Houston should be able to score via both the run and pass, and Stroud could benefit from facing a defense that generates just an 18.4% pressure rate and a 20th-ranked 6.64% sack rate. Stroud got Nico Collins back at the top of the receiver chart for the first time since Week 5, the star receiver played 28 snaps and ran 21 routes, catching four of seven targets for 54 yards in a steady return to action, he should be more heavily involved in Week 12. Stroud will also have Tank Dell, who has only missed one game this season, but the team continues to be without Stefon Diggs. Dell has scored twice in the passing game, Collins has one more touchdown grab in far fewer opportunities. Collins edges out Dell with an 11.5-yard average depth of target to Dell’s 10.1-yard shots but both receivers have strong downfield big play potential on any slate. Collins is WR4 by points and WR9 by value on DraftKings and WR5/8 on FanDuel while Dell is WR12/22 on DraftKings where his price is up somewhat at $6,400. As a $7,000 FanDuel receiver, Dell lands as WR16 by points and WR18 by value. Dalton Schultz is yet to score a touchdown this season, one of several surprising results at the tight end position around football in a trend that could reverse without warning. The tight end is still a fixture in the passing attack, drawing 5.0 targets per game and seven last week. Schultz gains 6.2 yards per target on an 8.7 yard ADOT that represents 15.8% of the team’s air yards, his scoring woes will be alleviated at some point this season and it is better to be ahead of the curve on that type of play. John Metchie III, Xavier Hutchinson, and Cade Stover will see backup-level involvement, though Metchie did pick up three targets, catching them all for 33 yards in Week 11. Hutchinson was barely involved, he ran 13 routes on 26 snaps with the offense but went untargeted in Week 11 and caught just two of four targets for six yards over 30 routes run in Week 10. Stover has seen at least two targets in four straight games, including one in the red zone in each of the last two contests, but he has not run 15 routes in any game this year and is an extremely low-volume dart throw who has not scored a touchdown in his 11 games. Of course, the true gem of this offense could once again simply be volume king Joe Mixon who has been one of the top positional options on a near-weekly basis in 2024. Mixon gains 4.5 yards per rush attempt and 95.5 yards per game on a ridiculous 21.4 carries per game. The running back adds to his potential touches with an average of 3.5 targets per game, making him one of the most involved non-quarterbacks in football. Mixon costs $8,000 on DraftKings and $9,000 on FanDuel, he is RB2 by points and RB7 by value on the former and RB3/4 on the latter. The running back has 10 rushing touchdowns and an eleventh via the passing game, he is a tremendous weekly option even at cost and could benefit from significant chances despite the stout front that limits yardage but not scoring on the ground. Dare Ogunbowale is nothing more than a low-volume passing-down back who needs to break a big play after the catch to hit the board. He has one touchdown on the season with 2.0 targets and 2.3 carries per game.
The Texans are highly ranked for scoring this week, they are Stack 2 by points but Stack 11 by value on DraftKings but rank more competitively as Stack 3 by points and Stack 3 by value on FanDuel
Indianapolis Colts
Game Total: 49.5 / IND +7.5 (21.0 imp)
Plays: 44.92% rush / 55.08% pass / 21.5 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 17.7 ppg / 6.36% sack / 3.80% int
Key Player: Anthony Richardson
Setting: at most two / at least one (this allows for both “naked” Anthony Richardson lineups and multi-player stacks, utilize with max/min exposure rules)
Team Group: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell, Mo Alie-Cox/Kylen Granson/Drew Ogletree (on/off rotation)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Tim Patrick (large field), Kalif Raymond (large field)
Lineup Notes: The Colts are underdogs in a game flirting with a 50-point total in Vegas. With an excellent Lions offense on the other side, the question is not whether Detroit will score to hold up their end of that Vegas total, it comes down to the performance of quarterback Anthony Richardson who ranks highly on this week’s slate after a strong return to action last week. Richardson was highly valuable for DFS with three touchdowns, including two on the ground over 10 carries on which he gained 32 yards. The quarterback threw for 272 yards on 20-30 passing with one touchdowns and zero interceptions against a capable Jets defense but has in no way overcome his up-and-down nature. Richardson will remain a high-ceiling highly volatile tournament play on a weekly basis and he has the receiving group to go with that role. Michael Pittman Jr. has a 12.2-yard average depth of target that would lead numerous teams around the league, he is the medium option in the passing game for the Colts. Pittman’s 6.5 targets per game amount to a 24.24% air yards share and he has a pair of receiving touchdowns this season. Josh Downs leads the team with 7.9 targets per game and he has gained 8.0 yards per target to outpace the 6.3 yards per target gained by Pittman. Downs operates closest to the line among the team’s primary pass catchers, his average depth of just 7.4 yards per target demands he make big plays after the catch or simply drive upside with volume. Downs is tied for the team lead with four receiving touchdowns this season. That tie is with the team’s major downfield weapon and leading recipient of air yards as well as big play potential, Alec Pierce, who has been featured in this space several times through the season. Pierce has a ridiculous 21.0-yard average depth of target on the season and gains 13.4 yards per target but sees just 3.6 targets per game and can dip to only one or two darts. The receiver’s 28.15% air yards share is representative of his big play ability, he can knock out a 50-yard catch for a score in a blink with Richardson’s ability to rifle the ball downfield. While the accuracy of this connection has been erratic, the overall projected points-per-dollar value has been consistent with both Richardson and Pierce landing effectively cheap on most slates over the first 12 weeks. Richardson is QB8 by points but climbs to QB3 by value on DraftKings and is similarly ranked as QB9/5 on FanDuel while Pierce’s value is more obscured as WR39/48 and WR43/43. Pittman slots in as a highly compelling option for a cheap price on both sites. For $5,300 on DraftKings, the receiver is WR14 by points and an excellent WR3 by value. He is WR21 by points but WR4 by value as an equally appealing option on the blue site. Downs is in between as WR25/41 on DraftKings and WR27/36 on FanDuel. Adonai Mitchell is another downfield option with a 14.2-yard average depth of target on the season but he sees limited volume with everyone healthy and drew just two targets last week, catching one for a solid 33-yard gain. The team’s tight end position remains a murky four-headed mess that is undesirable for DFS purposes. Running back Jonathan Taylor is another high-end play at the position with more than 20 potential touches per week. Taylor sees 18.8 carries and gains 4.5 yards per attempt this season, adding another few opportunities with 2.8 targets per game. The running back has five rushing touchdowns but has failed to reach paydirt in the pass game. Taylor has been limited to just 1.7 yards after contact per attempt this season but his volume wins out in the grind, he is RB9 by points and RB18 by value on DraftKings and RB12/16 on the FanDuel slate against a Detroit defense that allows 4.3 yards per rush attempt, ranking 11th in football. Their 0.9 rushing touchdowns allowed per game sits 12th overall in the sport. Detroit is a difficult target for stacks but the Colts rank fairly on both sites given the strong overall game environment, though their 21.0-point implied total leaves something to be desired.
The Colts are Stack 12 by points and Stack 14 by value on DraftKings and Stack 14 by points and Stack 15 by value on FanDuel in Week 12
Kansas City Chiefs
Game Total: 43.0 / KC -11.0 (27.0 imp)
Plays: 44.12% rush / 55.88% pass / 24.0 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 31.0 ppg / 3.76% sack / 1.63% int
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Noah Gray (large field), Samaje Perine (on/off; large field), Justin Watson (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Chuba Hubbard, Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen (Q; limited), Jonathon Brooks (Q; likely)(on/off), Jalen Coker (Q; dnp), Ja’Tavion Sanders
Lineup Notes: The Chiefs are extracting a 27.0-point implied team total on the strong side of a cakewalk matchup against the lousy Panthers. Kansas City is one of the more highly-projected teams of the week, given the strong total, and their prices have dipped for a bit of underperformance on the season. Kansas City has several options that rate among the top plays at their positions and the team is the best value stack on both sites this week. The Chiefs offense has posted 24.0 points per game while gaining a limited 3.9 yards per rush attempt and 7.0 yards per pass but they have been filled out via acquisitions and returns to both form and action over the past few weeks. Tight end Travis Kelce was held scoreless for several weeks but now has a pair of receiving touchdowns and 34 catches over the last four games. DeAndre Hopkins was a strong add for the Chiefs passing game, giving them a true number one to balance the scales. Hopkins scored twice in Week 9 against Tampa Bay in his best game with the Chiefs, he had four catches for 56 yards in Week 10 and dipped to just three for 29 yards on four targets last week. Hopkins has multi-touchdown upside on any given slate and slots in as WR20/17 on DraftKings and WR23/24 on FanDuel, he should continue to draw significant targeting in the passing attack but could remain behind Kelce’s robust 8.0 targets per game. The tight end gains 6.3 yards per target on a 6.3-yard ADOT but the volume pushes him to 24.84% of the air yards and he has a significant scoring upside in the red zone. With quarterback Patrick Mahomes throwing 34.4 passes per game and most of the volume likely to run through Hopkins and Kelce it is easy to roster the group as a trio in stacks. Mahomes has thrown 15 touchdown passes but has also lost 11 interceptions while averaging just 7.0 yards per pass attempt on the season, but he has three touchdown passes in two of the team’s three most recent games and is showing upside in the improved configuration. Mahomes is QB2 by points but QB10 by value on DraftKings and QB3 by points and QB9 by value on FanDuel. After the pair of pass catchers at the top of the board, the next-most likely significant scorer is running back Kareem Hunt who gains a mere 3.7 yards per attempt but sees a whopping 19.9 carries per game since returning to Kansas City. Hunt has five touchdowns in seven games and should remain the primary back with Isiah Pacheco out again this week, but the volume could dip again in Week 12. Hunt carried the ball just 14 times in Week 10 but made up for it with seven catches on 10 targets, that volume disappeared in the passing game last week, he carried the ball the same 14 times but went untargeted on 14 routes run, half the routes he had a week earlier. Hunt ranks highly on this slate, he is RB6 by points and RB1 by value on DraftKings and RB6 by points and RB2 by value on FanDuel but that could slip rapidly if his volume remains down, given the ugly yards per attempt numbers Hunt would be highly touchdown dependent. Xavier Worthy is an explosive player with top-end speed, he gains 6.4 yards per target on a 12.1-yard ADOT and picks up opportunities on the ground as well. Worthy has a pair of rushing touchdowns and four receiving touchdowns on 1.0 carries and 4.8 targets per game in his rookie season, he is a fair scoring mixer from the mid-range again in Week 12 and ranks as WR28/26 and WR30/39 across sites after posting 61 yards and a touchdown on four catches last week. JuJu Smith-Schuster checks in as a depth option in the receiving group, he returned after three missed games to run just 11 routes and catch his lone target for eight yards in Week 11. Smith-Schuster could see a bit of ongoing upside with a return to volume, he caught a season-high seven passes for 130 yards on eight targets in Week 5, his only substantial performance of the season. Noah Gray had a surprisingly huge Week 12 with a pair of touchdown catches, though that came with just 23 yards on 4-5 receiving. Gray is a regularly involved target in the passing attack and he should see similar opportunities again this week, though the scores came on two red zone targets that are something of a rarity for the tight end. Gray is TE20/23 and TE22/25 across sites. Samaje Perine is a third-down receiving back with no real DFS appeal outside the top-35 across the board at running back. Justin Watson caught two-of-two targets in each of the last two games and has been regularly involved while providing little to no value each week. Watson sees 2.0 targets per game on a 10.9-yard ADOT for 10.38% of the team’s air yards, he has not scored this year and is no more than a desperation play dart throw. Backups Carson Steele and Mecole Hardman are similarly without potential barring outliers this week.
The Chiefs are Stack 4 by points and Stack 1 by value on DraftKings, they are similarly high-value on FanDuel as Stack 5 by points and Stack 1 by value
Las Vegas Raiders
Game Total: 40.5 / DEN -6.0 (17.25 imp)
Plays: 35.25% rush / 64.75% pass / 18.7 ppg / 3.5 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.8 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass / 16.6 ppg / 9.77% sack / 2.22% int
Key Player: Gardner Minshew II
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers, Tre Tucker, DJ Turner (large field), Ameer Abdullah (on/off), Dylan Laube (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Courtland Sutton, Javonte Williams, Devaughn Vele, Marvin Mims Jr., Audric Estime (on/off), Troy Franklin, Lil’Jordan Humphrey (large field)
Lineup Notes: The Raiders continue to run a limited offense that is now down two running backs as both Zamir White and Alexander Mattison expected to miss Week 12. Assuming that is the case, the expectation is that the primary running back will be third-string Ameer Abdullah, who costs just $4,300 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel. Backup Dylan Laube should see more potential touches in the secondary role than practice squad member Sincere McCormick, whose name we are borrowing for a mournful tome of Irish poetry. Abdullah gains 4.8 yards per rush attempt but that has come over just 1.7 carries per game this season, he has seen slightly more involvement with 2.0 targets per game. Abdullah has a touchdown in the rushing game and another in the pass game. The running back gained 42 yards on five carries and scored a touchdown in Week 5 in his peak performance of the season in a game against a decent Denver defense. Abdullah is a 31-year-old veteran, not an explosive young player, he has never seen more than 165 carries in a season and that was seven seasons ago. Abdullah peaked with 552 yards and four touchdowns that year, though he gained 597 yards on 143 carries with just two touchdowns as a rookie in 2015, which is two running back lifetimes ago. Laube was picked in the sixth round this season and has only seen action in three games and only on one snap with the offense. Laub failed to gain yardage on a carry on that play. The rookie had a respectable college career but played at New Hampshire, it is difficult to speculate on how success may translate from the CAA field to the NFL but there should be a few opportunities available for the cheap running back in a bad offense. McCormick is also a rookie, he went undrafted out of UTSA and did not see a snap with the offense this season but gained more than 1,400 yards in each of his last two college seasons, posting 5.9 and 5.0 yards per attempt. McCormick is not expected to see many touches but situational impact could change that. Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers remain playable individual options who double as the team’s go-to options in misguided stacks. Bowers ranks as TE2 by points on both sites but slips a bit for value. On DraftKings, he is TE11 by value, he is a better fit for cost on the FanDuel slate as TE6 by value. Meyers is WR17 by points on DraftKings but jumps to WR5 by value for just $5,100. The receiver is a $6,400 play at WR18/15 on the blue site. The Raiders have a pass-heavy offense but run just 61 plays per game and the opposing Broncos have been a strong defense throughout, so opportunities for both Bowers and Meyers to reach necessary scores to combine for a win may be limited. Las Vegas averages a mere 18.7 points and 1.9 touchdowns per game this season, Bowers has three of those touchdowns and Meyers has two of them, none of those touchdowns came in the same game. Both pass-catchers are limited by the play of quarterback Gardner Minshew II who completes 67.0% of his passes but manages just 6.8 yards per attempt. Minshew has thrown eight touchdowns against nine interceptions this season and averages just 3.5 air yards per attempt on 6.1 intended air yards per attempt. The quarterback throws 33.0 passes per game and averages 222.88 yards but the appeal is limited and the team musters no support on the ground. Las Vegas has Tre Tucker and DJ Turner as dart throw options for depth, Tucker draws 4.8 targets per game while Turner sees 2.4, with both getting down field regularly for double-digit average depths of target. Tucker outdraws Turner for both volume and depth with 28.15% of the air yards and has a touchdown on the board while Turner has been held scoreless on fewer opportunities and sees 13.84% of the air yards. Ramel Keyton will also be active for this game, he picked up two targets in his Week 9 debut and another last week but ran just four routes last week after running 18 in Week 9, with a bye in between. The Raiders are facing a Denver defense that continues to hold up as the season rolls on. The Broncos are second in the NFL with 16.6 points and 1.6 touchdowns allowed per game. While part of that comes from facing lower-end opponents, nothing about that changes against the Raiders, Denver is poised for success as a DST and they stand a good chance to keep any thoughts of Las Vegas DFS value largely in check.
The Raiders are Stack 18 by points and Stack 16 by value on DraftKings and Stack 19 by points and by value on FanDuel, they are more appealing in pieces
Los Angeles Rams – FanDuel Only
Game Total: 49.5 / LAR +3.0 (23.25 imp)
Plays: 40.16% rush / 59.84% pass / 21.3 ppg / 3.8 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.2 ypa rush / 6.1 ypa pass / 17.9 ppg / 8.12% sack / 2.21% int
Key Player: Matthew Stafford
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Demarcus Robinson, Kyren Williams, Tutu Atwell (large field), Davis Allen (on/off), Colby Parkinson (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, Jahan Dotson, Johnny Wilson
Lineup Notes: In a late-game special that lands only on the FanDuel slate, the Rams and Eagles both rank highly for scoring potential and DFS upside. The game has a 49.5-point total with the Eagles favored by just 3.0 on the road, the Rams are an excellent option for stacking, bring-back plays in Eagles stacks, and standalone pass-catching, though their running back value is highly questionable on a dip in volume. Los Angeles features premium pass-catchers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, both of whom are back to full health (as much as possible for those two) and massive weekly productivity. Nacua sees 8.0 targets per game and Kupp leads the team with 11.0, no other target is above 5.0 opportunities per game. The Rams passing attack is lethal through the two primary weapons but Philadelphia has an excellent secondary this season, this is an interesting matchup of premium weapons. The Eagles allow just 4.2 yards per rush attempt and 6.1 yards per pass, a league-leading mark for limiting pass yardage. They have been a strong scoring defense as well, their 8.31% sack rate ranks ninth while the 3.36% interception rate is sixth in football. Despite the strong performance in those areas, Philadelphia has allowed 1.9 passing touchdowns per game, they are better against the run with just 0.7 rushing touchdowns per game. The Eagles rank 22nd with 23.9 points allowed per game and they generate just an 18.3% pressure rate despite the solid sack numbers. With a bit of time in the pocket, veteran Matthew Stafford should have the time to find one of his primary weapons on most of his attempts in this matchup, his offense already leans nearly 60% pass and will sling the ball even more if they are trailing or in a competitive game in the second half. Stafford throws 34.9 passes per game, he is one of the higher-end high-volume quarterbacks in football now that he has his targets back in place. The veteran has 13 touchdown passes and seven interceptions while gaining 7.3 yards per pass attempt this season. Nacua catches deeper passes than Kupp on average, his 10.8-yard average depth of target is second on the team over five games. Nacua has scored only once this season, Kupp has been in the end zone four times and sees slightly more of the air yards with a 17.48% share that comes on volume given his shorter 7.1-yard average depth of target. Both receivers have explosive ability to break plays after the catch and they have little problem shaking even the best of coverage, this will be a fun potentially explosive late night matchup for both options and it is not impossible to see both receivers getting to the end zone. Stafford ranks as QB11 by points but leaps to QB3 by value as a potential late night hammer that is not wearing Eagles green. Nacua is WR3 by points and WR3 by value while Kupp is WR4 by points and WR13 by value but those marks could easily swing with the movement of one target from one to the other, they are both strong top-end options. Demarcus Robinson dips in total opportunities with most of his games in the 3-5 target range when both Kupp and Nacua are active but the shape of his opportunity becomes interesting alongside the two big targets who demand total attention and coverage. Not only does Robinson tend to pick up lesser opponents in matchups, his team-leading 14.0-yard average depth of target and 27.06% air yards share become highly appealing for their big play nature. Robinson has five receiving touchdowns on the season to lead the team, though that comes in 10 games, several of which featured him in a more prominent role. Robinson is WR45/44 on the FanDuel slate this week, he is on the board as an individual low-probability high-upside dart throw as a standalone but is more functional in stacks as a +2 option. Davis Allen went oddly untargeted last week despite picking up a 65% snap share as the primary tight end and running 15 routes. Colby Parkinson played just 37% of the snaps, running five routes on the 19 plays and drawing the one target that went to the position overall last week. He caught that pass for a frustrating 19 yard touchdown on a day that Allen was pulling a bit of value appeal. Neither tight end ranks highly this week, but Allen continues to be the presumptive lead as TE20 by points and TE18 by value. None of the team’s depth options have appeal beyond that point. Returning to the top of the depth chart, running back Kyren Williams presents a problem for DFS owners. Williams will continue to project for fair scores with the backbone of volume-based production that he posted through the early part of the season but his value is reduced in this configuration of the team. After seeing at least 21 carries per week from Week 5 through Week 9, Williams dipped to just 15 carries in each of the past two games. He did add five catches on six targets, gaining 20 yards to pad Week 10 scoring but went untargeted last week. Williams gained just 3.9 yards per rush attempt over the first 11 weeks of the season, drawing most of his value from 19.1 carries and another 3.1 potential touches from targets in the passing game. The running back has eight rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns this season but has gained just 1.7 yards after contact per attempt this year and was held scoreless for the third week in a row and the fourth week in the rushing game. Williams dip in both production and volume are highly concerning for a limited talent, he drops to RB9 by points and is even more limited as RB19 by value this week. Backup Blake Corum has no appeal on fewer than five potential touches.
The Rams are Stack 4 by points and Stack 7 by value on the FanDuel slate, they are very much in play as a stack, as standalone options, and as bring-back plays in even higher-end Eagles stacks to round out the night on the blue site
Miami Dolphins
Game Total: 46.5 / MIA -7.5 (27.0 imp)
Plays: 46.06% rush / 53.94% pass / 18.1 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass / 22.5 ppg / 6.93% sack / 1.19% int
Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Jonnu Smith, Raheem Mostert, Malik Washington (large field), Odell Beckham Jr. (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, DeMario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte, Kendrick Bourne, Ja’Lynn Polk
Lineup Notes: The disappointing Dolphins have yet another opportunity to explode for upside in a game against a New England team that sits, at best, in the middle of the road defensively. Miami put up 34 points against Las Vegas last week with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa leading the way with 288 yards and three touchdowns on 28-36 passing in his best performance since returning in Week 8. Tagovailoa has seven touchdown passes against just one interception over those four games with Tyreek Hill benefitting with a touchdown in each of the past two games. Hill is still searching for his first 100-yard performance since Week 1 but he tied that week’s mark of seven catches, his season-high, on eight targets. Jaylen Waddle scored in Week 9 but was held to -4.0 yards on two catches in that game and has scored just that one touchdown all season. Waddle posted 109 yards on five catches in Week 1 but has not been relevant since, he had 37 yards on a pair of catches last week and 57 on three catches the week before but the lack of scoring has been a challenge. Waddle’s discounted price keeps him on the board as WR26/28 and WR31/30 across sites but his value will be limited if he fails to reach paydirt again this week. Hill is the easier option between the two, the star is difficult to suppress as WR5/6 on DraftKings and WR8/9 on FanDuel. Since Tagovailoa’s return the star receiver has been above 2.0 yards per route run and he has nearly unrivaled explosive upside on any given slate. Tight end Jonnu Smith has been the biggest beneficiary in the passing game, picking up at least six targets in five of the last six games. Smith had a pair of receiving touchdowns in his best performance of the season in Week 11. The tight end caught six of eight targets for 101 yards to go with the scoring and he is a consistent option in the red zone for this team. Smith is TE6 by points and TE 3 by value on DraftKings and ranks the same on the FanDuel slate. The passing game is structured with Hill operating as the big play weapon on an 11.6-yard ADOT with his 6.8 targets per game leading the way to a huge 39.59% air yards share that ranks among the slate-leaders. Hill has ongoing opportunity for explosive scoring events on a weekly basis. Waddle operates more on a mid-range 8.9-yard average depth of target that has him carrying 21.76% of the team’s air yards on 4.7 targets per game. Smith is not much of a downfield weapon, his value comes primarily from volume and red zone targets creating scoring potential. Malik Washington and Odell Beckham Jr. are simple dart throws down the depth chart, though they drew three and four targets respectively last week. Beckham caught two passes for 13 yards, his third straight week with mid-teens yardage and no value. Washington was similarly low-end with three catches for 11 yards. He has seven catches and 45 yards with zero touchdowns this season. If the goal is to depart from the obvious plays this team offers in the pass-catching pool, getting to one of the potentially explosive running backs is not a bad idea. De’Von Achane checks into the slate as a fair option as RB4 by points and RB10 by value on DraftKings and RB5/14 on the FanDuel slate. The running back gained 73 yards on 17 attempts and scored for the second time in the last three games in Week 11. Achane gains a solid 4.3 yards per rush attempt and has three rushing touchdowns to go with another three on an excellent 5.1 targets per game to pad potential touches. Given the perceived timeshare, 17.3 potential touches per game is not a bad total for the affordable running back. Achane is a better buy on DraftKings but he is in play for a strong day on both sites against a team allowing 4.4 yards per rush attempt. Raheem Mostert has been the lesser of the two options in the backfield this season with just 3.7 yards per rush attempt and a pair of touchdowns on 8.3 carries per game this season. Mostert has been targeted just 1.7 times per game and is now the clear second option in the offensive gameplan. While he is still a threat to poach touchdowns and sap volume from the more highly-projected Achane, Mostert slides in as just RB29/31 on DraftKings and RB32/26 on FanDuel.
Overall, the Dolphins rank as Stack 5 by points and Stack 9 by value on DraftKings and they sit as Stack 8 by points but drop to Stack 12 by value on the FanDuel slate
Minnesota Vikings
Game Total: 39.0 / MIN -3.5 (21.25 imp)
Plays: 47.49% rush / 62.51% pass / 24.4 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 8.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass / 18.7 ppg / 7.99% sack / 3.13% int
Key Player: Sam Darnold
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor (large field), Cam Akers (on/off), Johnny Mundt (on/off; large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen (Q; likely), Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift (Q; likely), Cole Kmet, Roschon Johnson (on/off), Gerald Everett (on/off; large field)
Lineup Notes: On the high side of a game with a low-end 39.0-point total, the Vikings ceiling may be somewhat pedestrian against just a 21.25-point implied total. The Vikings have a strong defense that should be a challenge for scuffling rookie Caleb Williams to overcome on the other side of the equation, which could keep the overall score and pressure low in a quick-moving game. Minnesota’s defense ranks as DST2 by points and DS3 by value on DraftKings and DST2/5 on FanDuel. The Vikings have racked up an 8.66% sack rate and their 4.34% interception rate is tops in football, with totals amounting to 35 sacks and 15 interceptions in just 10 games. While Williams might have his hands full on the other side, Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold will be facing a defense yielding 7.4 yards per pass attempt and 4.8 yards per rush but carrying respectable 7.99% and 3.13% sack and interception rates, the 11th and 9th-ranked marks in the league this season. With aggressive defenses on both sides the low total makes sense, Chicago has only given up 18.7 points per game on the season with 1.1 rushing touchdowns and 0.7 receiving touchdowns allowed per game, though their pass defense has been fading for yards per attempt in recent weeks. Darnold averages a solid 8.1 yards per pass attempt on 29.3 attempts, amounting to 238.7 yards per game this season. The quarterback has 19 touchdown passes against 10 interceptions to go with the solid yardage gains and he has two excellent weapons with which to attack the Chicago pass defense. Darnold has established a strong connection with Justin Jefferson, the duo connected for five receiving touchdowns on 8.6 targets per game, with Jefferson delivering 10.6 yards per target. The receiver remains a strong option even against a sound defense, he ranks as WR2/2 on DraftKings and WR2/1 on the FanDuel slate and possesses gargantuan any-given-slate upside. Darnold is QB11 by points but QB8 by value on DraftKings and QB13 by points and QB4 by value on FanDuel in the lousy game environment, his low cost could push intrigue in small pairings with Jefferson. The team offers excellent lower-cost weapons as well. Running back Aaron Jones remains a key player in the gameplan, the veteran averages 15.7 carries and 3.3 targets per game and had been sturdy with 4.4 yards per rush attempt but just a pair of rushing touchdowns this season. Jones gains value from his involvement in the passing attack via reception points and a lone receiving touchdown, as well as 7.9 yards per target. Tight end TJ Hockenson is a major weapon in the passing game when he is fully healthy. He has zero touchdowns on 5.3 targets per game after missing Week 1 through Week 8. The tight end caught five touchdowns and gained 960 yards on 95 catches over 125 targets last season, he should continue to round into form with additional reps. Jordan Addison has three touchdowns on the season and potential game-breaking upside on a terrific 15.4-yard average depth of target for the season. The receiver garners 22.27% of the team’s air yards on 5.1 targets per game and can spike upside weeks with additional opportunities. Addison was targeted eight times last week and came away with three catches for 61 yards and a touchdown. The score was Addison’s second in three weeks, he had five catches for 42 yards and a touchdown on five targets in Week 9 and was a huge scorer for this team with 10 touchdowns on 70 catches for 911 yards as a rookie last year. Jalen Nailor is the third man up in the receiving group but remains the fourth or fifth option in the passing attack with just 2.6 targets per game. Nailor has a solid opportunity to break big plays however, his 11.3-yard average depth of target has him at a 13.99% air yards share despite the limited volume and he has four touchdown receptions this season, with some coming on heavier involvement in Addison’s absence. Depth options including Johnny Mundt and Brandon Powell are limited darts, Mundt sees 2.2 targets per game and has one receiving touchdown while Powell dipped below 1.0 targets per game and has not scored this season.
The Vikings are Stack 6 by points and Stack 5 by value on DraftKings despite a low game-total, they drop to Stack 10 by points and Stack 9 by value on FanDuel
New England Patriots
Game Total: 46.5 / NE +7.5 (19.5 imp)
Plays: 43.09% rush / 56.91% pass / 16.5 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass / 22.1 ppg / 5.09% sack / 1.89% int
Key Player: Drake Maye
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Rhamondre Stevenson, DeMario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, Kendrick Bourne, Ja’Lynn Polk (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Jonnu Smith, Raheem Mostert, Malik Washington (large field), Odell Beckham Jr. (large field)
Lineup Notes: New England is another lousy team that will have to keep pace as underdogs in a highly-totaled game at 46.5 points. New England is carrying just a 19.5-point portion of that share in the implied sense as +7.5 underdogs but they are showing interesting value-based potential with a more productive offense in recent weeks. The Patriots have been throwing the ball at a more aggressive clip since the Drake Maye takeover. New England’s offense has been lousy overall this season and the increased volume has led to only limited scoring output. Maye threw two touchdown passes in a strong 29-39 performance with 282 yards but also threw his fourth interception in three games in Week 11. The 282 yards were a season high and Maye has been over 35 pass attempts in three of his five starts on the season, giving him a fair shot at making value for cheap prices if he were in a more effective offense. The Patriots have a low-end receiving group with the team averaging 16.5 points and 1.6 touchdowns per game, 1.0 of which come through the pass game. DeMario Douglas is the functional top option in the passing game with 5.4 targets per game leading to 7.0 yards per target and a 16.38% air yards share on limited depth. Douglas has one receiving touchdown this season, which is true of basically every option in this offense. The team leader is Ja’Lynn Polk with two receiving touchdowns on the season while seven others have exactly one. Tight end Hunter Henry leads the team with 6.0 targets per game on a 6.8-yard average depth of target for 16.38% of the air yards, he is one of the pass catchers with a lone touchdown tally. Kayshon Boutte and Kendrick Bourne slot in as mediocre options with Boutte looking more appealing on a 15.1-yard average depth of target for a team-leading 24.74% of the air yards. Bourne has a 9.0-yard average depth of target on 3.2 targets per game to Boutte’s 3.8 opportunities and both receivers have seen recent upticks in opportunities with Maye throwing the ball more often. Boutte has seen exactly six targets in each of the last four games, though he has neither scored nor cracked 50 yards over that stretch. Bourne was targeted five times last week, catching every pass for 70 yards and a touchdown and he caught four of six targets for 41 yards in Week 9 with a DNP in between. Polk has been more lightly targeted with 2.8 opportunities per game on on an 11.9-yard ADOT but he has two targets total over the past three games and has been surpassed by both Boutte and Bourne. Overall, the team’s receiving group ranks with Douglas as WR33/24 and WR37/33, Boutte as WR40 by points but WR29 by value on DraftKings and WR37/33 on FanDuel, and Bourne dropping in as WR46/43 and WR53/54 across sites. Any of the options is fine in a pairing with Maye in skinny stacks but the quarterback himself lands as just QB13/13 on DraftKings and QB15/12 on FanDuel. Maye has interesting future upside but the team owes him a better receiver to grow with than what he currently has in the arsenal, this is a low-end value option on the board this week against a Miami defense allowing 4.4 yards per rush attempt and 6.6 yards per pass, the 14th and seventh-best marks in the game. While the Dolphins do not have an intimidating or high-pressure pass rush and they have not found many interceptions along the way they have kept opponents to an average 22.1 points and 2.1 touchdowns per game, the 15th-highest scoring but eight-best touchdown marks. Overall, running back Rhamondre Stevenson may once again prove to be the best option on the Patriots. The running back is gaining 3.8 yards per rush attempt on 15.4 carries per game and he picks up chances with 3.3 targets to push him toward our goal of 20 potential touches. Stevenson’s averages are skewed somewhat by a few low-end opportunities, he had 20 carries in three of the last four games though he failed to gain even 75 yards in any of those contests. Stevenson has fair involvement in the passing game to help pad scrimmage yards and reception scoring but his ability comes down to volume-based production more often than not. He has six touchdowns on the ground and one in the passing attack this year and ranks as RB11/8 on DraftKings and RB14 by points but RB3 by value on FanDuel. Veterans Austin Hooper and Antonio Gibson are limited to merer backup shares and are essentially without value on the slate in Week 12.
The Patriots rank as Stack 16 by points but climb to Stack 7 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 18 by points and Stack 10 by value on FanDuel in a game with a 46.5-point total.
New York Giants
Game Total: 41.0 / NYG +6.0 (17.5 imp)
Plays: 41.72% rush / 58.28% pass / 15.6 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass / 26.6 ppg / 6.93% sack / 1.33% int
Key Player: Tommy DeVito
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Malik Nabers (Q; dnp), Tyrone Tracy Jr., Wan’Dale Robinson, Devin Singletary (on/off), Darius Slayton, Theo Johnson
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Mike Evans (Q; likely), Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, Cade Otton, Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard
Lineup Notes: The phrase “I can’t believe we’re going to do this again” has come up too often this November, most recently in reference to quarterback Tommy DeVito who takes over for finally (and entirely justifiably) banished Daniel Jones. The team would be far better served with Drew Lock at the helm, but DeVito is the first man up in what is almost certainly a simple financial consideration based on what Lock is owed if he reaches games played thresholds. To this point in his career, DeVito’s biggest accomplishment is, by far, costing the Giants an opportunity to draft exceptional rookie signal caller Jayden Daniels, who is now with division rival Washington. DeVito was at quarterback when the team won a few late-season games to knock their draft value back by a critical spot or two. In those games, DeVito managed one truly good performance. That game came in Week 11 of last season against what was then a terrible Washington pass defense that was exploited by everyone in the league. DeVito completed 18 of 26 passes for 246 yards and three touchdowns in that game, the yardage and the touchdown total were career highs. Overall, the quarterback completed 64.0% of his pass attempts for just 6.2 yards per attempt while throwing eight touchdowns against three interceptions. DeVito also ran the ball 36 times for 195 yards, 5.4 yards per attempt, with a rushing touchdown on the board. The quarterback’s second-biggest accomplishment was a brief endorsement deal for a local spaghetti sauce distributor. The Giants are facing a Tampa Bay pass defense that has been easy to beat this season, the Buccaneers are allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt with 2.1 passing touchdowns allowed per game and 3.0 total for 26.6 points per game. Early reporting is that star rookie receiver Malik Nabers is trending toward playing in Week 12 but he remains officially questionable with a groin injury. If Nabers is absent or limited it will be limiting to an already limited offense helmed by a limited quarterback. This is before we mention potential 25-mph wind gusts in the area around gametime. Nabers sees 11.8 targets per game, he is a volume monster in the passing attack and hauls in 7.6 catches per game but those numbers are potentially on the move with DeVito delivering the ball. Nabers sees a 41.01% air yards share for one of the better overall marks on the slate and he has caught three touchdown passes in mixed action this season. The rookie is WR6 by points and WR10 by value on DraftKings and WR7 by points and WR5 by value on the blue site. DeVito is QB19 by points but QB6 by value as a $4,000 option on DraftKings where there is, unfortunately, undeniable appeal in at least combining him with a fairly-priced Nabers. On FanDuel they are more difficult to reach with DeVito priced at $6,000 and landing as QB21/18. If one were determined to roster someone from the Giants, running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. is not the worst option. The rookie gains 5.1 yards per rush attempt on 10.7 carries per game with 3.1 before and 2.0 after contact per attempt. Tracy has three rushing touchdowns on the season but has failed to score on his 2.3 targets per game. With another productive game in which he gained 103 yards on 18 carries and scored a touchdown in the team’s Week 10 matchup, Tracy could continue to push his way to the lion’s share of carries, he has 20, 16, and 18 over the team’s last three games with Devin Singeltary in a clear backup role with just two, seven, and eight carries in those same games. The job clearly belongs to Tracy who possesses far more explosive upside than the mediocre veteran but Singletary’s presence could sap potential in the wrong game-flow. Wan’Dale Robinson is the next man up in the passing game if Nabers fails to play. He is a steady source of targets in most cases regardless but would become the top option for double-digit targeting in the passing game in his teammate’s absence. Robinson draws 8.4 targets per game overall for the season with another eight coming in the team’s most recent game. The receiver posted 51 yards on five catches in that matchup but has been limited for yardage and scoring all season. Robinson caught 11 passes but only managed to gain 71 yards while failing to score back in Week 4, he has two touchdown catches on the season despite the steady targeting, with part of the problem clearly stemming from a limiting 4.3-yard average depth of target as not much more than a dump-off option. Darius Slayton has a 12.6-yard ADOT and 25.72% of the team’s air yards on 5.6 targets per game but has scored just once this season and offers only limited appeal as WR49/56 and WR55/58. Robinson is more appealing for the simple volume, he lands as WR29/33 and WR32/28 across sites. Theo Johnson picks up 3.2 targets per game on a 7.7-yard average depth of target for the season but the rookie tight end has found the end zone only one time all year and sees just a 10.07% air yards share. Jalin Hyatt continues to run a few sprints in uniform each week but he popped up with his first four catches of the season on targets nine through 12 in last week’s game, gaining 39 yards in the process. The limited downfield target will rely entirely on having his number called in the first place and then he still relies on DeVito’s ability to deliver a clean pass. This is a thin play that is barely worthy of consideration on microscopic overall volume.
The Giants are a lousy football team that is going nowhere with DeVito at the helm that Daniel Jones would not have taken them. They are Stack 13 by points and Stack 17 by value on DraftKings and Stack 16/17 on the FanDuel slate this week
Philadelphia Eagles – FanDuel Only
Game Total: 49.5 / PHI -3.0 (26.25 imp)
Plays: 55.24% rush / 44.76% pass / 25.9 ppg / 5.0 ypa rush / 8.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 8.2 ypa pass / 23.9 ppg / 8.31% sack / 3.36% int
Key Player: Jalen Hurts
Setting: at most two / at least one (this allows for both “naked” Jalen Hurts lineups and multi-player stacks, utilize with max/min exposure rules)
Team Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, Jahan Dotson, Johnny Wilson, Ainias Smith (large field), Kenneth Gainwell (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Demarcus Robinson, Kyren Williams, Tutu Atwell (large field)
Lineup Notes: The high-end Eagles offense rates highly once again for pure scoring potential for the late FanDuel-only nightcap. Philadelphia is a highly priced scoring machine with three excellent options but they are lacking fourth-man Devonta Smith this week. That absence should simply push the upside for the team’s available stars while creating a bit of opportunity for the depth options on the roster. Smith sees a fair number of targets as a deep weapon in the passing game, so it would make sense that a few additional opportunities will go to limited Jahan Dotson with Johnny Wilson offering an intriguing alternative for similarly deep target opportunities and big play potential. Wilson has a receiving touchdown on the season but sees under a target per game while Dotson has been bad, delivering just 6.2 yards per target despite a 10.6 yard average depth of target over 1.7 targets per game. The remaining depth option is Ainias Smith, who slots in for just $4,000. The fifth-round pick out of Texas A&M missed the first seven weeks of the season and has run just 11 routes in four games since returning, peaking with five routes run over 18 snaps in Week 10 against Dallas. Smith caught both targets in that game but gained only six yards. The receiver was drafted as a slot playmaker, he gained 795 yards on 53 catches and scored a pair of touchdowns as a senior at A&M last year and has big play ability but diminutive stature. At least the last name makes for an able replacement. The appeal of this highly-rated stack is in quarterback Jalen Hurts, running back Saquon Barkley, and receiver AJ Brown, all of whom offer major appeal at the top of the heap. Hurts has thrown 12 touchdowns against five interceptions this season and averages an excellent 8.5 yards per pass attempt. The quarterback is limited for volume in most games, not because of talent but simply by a lack of need to throw the ball much more than his 26.3 attempt average. Hurts runs an efficient offense that features a superstar running back who draws heavy volume on the ground and he punches the ball into the end zone frequently without throwing it to a teammate at all. The star quarterback has 11 rushing touchdowns on the season with 4.0 yards per attempt on 10.3 attempts per game. Hurts is a terrific weekly scoring option, he is QB1 by raw scoring and QB8 by points per dollar value on the FanDuel slate this week. Barkley slide in as RB2 by points and RB8 by value and Brown is WR6 by points and WR6 by value on the slate. All of the high-end Eagles are in play. Barkley averages a ridiculous 5.8 yards per rush attempt and may simply be superhuman. The running back carries the ball 19.7 times per game and adds 2.9 targets to easily clear our 20 potential touches threshold. Barkley has eight rushing touchdowns and a pair of receiving touchdowns this season, he is one of the best players in football and a top positional option once again this week. Brown gets down the field in a hurry, picking up a 13.9-yard ADOT that makes him one of the top big play threats in the game. The receiver has three touchdowns and 33.5% of the team’s air yards on 7.0 targets per game, though he has not found the end zone since Week 7 against the Giants. Brown has been over 100 yards three times this season, he has major potential to hit bonus requirements and score multiple times if the team leans into the passing game against a Rams team that can easily drive scoring in that direction with their elite passing attack. Tight end Dallas Goedert, who slots in as TE4 by points and TE2 by value, is another healthy mix-in on this slate. The veteran has missed a few games this season but slots in with 5.3 targets per contest for 12.25% of the team’s air yards on a 6.9-yard ADOT. Goedert has one touchdown on the board this season, he had three in each of the last two seasons. Running back Kenneth Gainwell is typically restricted to backup touches, he seems unlikely to contribute in a close high-scoring game but should see a handful of potential touches including in the red zone. Gainwell carried the ball once in the red zone last week and four times against Dallas in Week 10. He had five red zone carries in Week 7 against the Giants and 14 total for the season as an offbeat touchdown dart throw. Gainwell is just RB38/39, he is not a valuable DFS play outside of lottery tickets. The Vegas total has the Eagles at 26.25 implied points, one of the leading marks on the slate, implying room for everyone to deliver scoring potential in Hurts+1 or Hurts+2 stacks. The Rams are an ideal opponent for bring-back plays and their 8.2 yards allowed per pass attempt should lead to spectacular scoring potential for Brown and other Eagles pass-catchers and Barkley is a terrific option for standalone value or in stacks for direct and indirect correlation.
The Eagles are Stack 1 by points and Stack 2 by value and stand as one of two major pieces in the late game on the FanDuel slate
Seattle Seahawks
Game Total: 48.0 / SEA -1.0 (24.5 imp)
Plays: 35.50% rush / 64.50% pass / 23.0 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 22.0 ppg / 6.92% sack / 1.55% int
Key Player: Geno Smith
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njiba, Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker III, Zach Charbonnet, Noah Fant (Q; likely)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: James Conner, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch
Lineup Notes: Quarterback Geno Smith managed to win last week’s game with a critical rushing touchdown while keeping a mostly-season-long trend of solid passing game production with limited touchdown upside in gear. Smith completed 25 of 32 attempts for 221 yards but failed to throw a touchdown while losing another interception to the 49ers defense. Smith had a big Week 9 game against the Rams, posting three touchdown passes but also throwing three interceptions en route to a 363-yard day on 21-34 passing. Smith has been over 300 yards in four separate games this season with another two performances above 280 yards, he is a significant passer who throws the ball at a highly appealing clip with 37.4 attempts per game. Smith’s lack of touchdown output has combined with recent interceptions to create a line that looks uglier than his season has truly been, he now has 11 touchdowns against 11 interceptions on the year but remains a high-end tournament play with three excellent pass-catchers and a solid running back for stacking purposes. Smith is QB4 by points and QB2 by value on the DraftKings slate where he costs just $5,700. At $7,400 on FanDuel he is a clear value option as well, slotting in as QB5 by points and QB2 by value on the slate at the top of what ranks as a premium stack in Week 12 action. Seattle slots in with a 24.5-point implied total as 1.0-point favorites in a 48.0-point contest against an opponent with a targetable defense and an offense that is strong enough to keep pace against a Seahawks defense that is equally gettable. DK Metcalf averages 8.8 targets per game in the team’s heavy passing attack. Jaxon Smith-Njigba sees 8.6 opportunities each week, and veteran Tyler Lockett draws 5.6 targets per contest. Metcalf has three receiving touchdowns, tying Smith-Njigba for the team lead. The receivers split air yards with Metcalf leading the way at 33.36%, Smith-Njigba at 26.83%, and Lockett carrying a 25.0% share. All three receivers operate on steady downfield patterns that yield big play scoring potential, they are strong buys in stacks and as standalone values. Metcalf is WR8/11 and WR11/16 across DraftKings and FanDuel, Smith-Njigba is WR10/14 and WR14/19, and Lockett carries value as a lower-cost lower-owned high-upside play as WR30/23 and WR35/31. Tight end Noah Fant ranks just 15th by points and 17th by value on DraftKings and 17th across the board on FanDuel this week, he has failed to score despite 4.0 targets per game this season. Fant gains a solid 8.9 yards per target and is a reasonble mixer in Seattle stacks at $3,700/$5,000. Zach Charbonnet backs up starter Kenneth Walker III who leads the way as RB7/12 on DraftKings and RB8/11 on FanDuel. Charbonnet is just RB25/25 and RB30/28 and has only backup volume with a bit of explosive play potential. Walker has seven rushing touchdowns this season but Charbonnet has managed to pick up four on limited involvement. The starter’s volume keeps Charbonnet to just 6.5 carries per game however, Walker sees 14.1 and gains 4.0 yards per attempt while adding another 4.5 opportunities in the passing game each week. Walker is a sound option as a high-cost standalone running back on both sites and his direct and indirect correlation gives him plenty of value in premium stacks of Seahawks in Week 12. Options down the depth chart including Jake Bobo, AJ Barner, and Pharaoh Brown are low-volume players who do not have appeal when everyone above them is healthy.
The Seattle stack ranks as one of the top options as Stack 3 by points and Stack 4 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 6 across the board on the FanDuel slate
San Francisco 49ers
Game Total: 44.5 / SF +5.5 (19.5 imp)
Plays: 47.60% rush / 52.40% pass / 25.0 ppg / 5.0 ypa rush / 8.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 21.3 ppg / 7.40% sack / 3.19% int
Key Player: Brandon Allen
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, Jordan Mason (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft
Lineup Notes: What should have been a potential classic Week 12 matchup will likely be limited by the lack of 49ers starter Brock Purdy, who is out and yielding the job to Brandon Allen this week. Allen will benefit from a cadre of ludicrously talented skill players in every corner but the 49ers value will largely come from what he can manage in keeping the car on the highway. The situation is somewhat reminiscent of the mess in Miami earlier in the season but with more premium weapons involved. Allen threw 142 passes for Cincinnati in 2020, completing 90 of them for 925 yards and five touchdowns with four interceptions for 6.5 yards per attempt. He has thrown 37 passes since and did not play on an NFL roster in 2023. Allen has a 2-7 record in nine career starts, his peak came in Week 16 in 2020 when he completed 29 of 37 passes for 371 yards and a pair of touchdowns without throwing an interception while with the Bengals. Allen is a $4,000 option on DraftKings and a $6,000 play on the FanDuel slate, he slots in as QB15 by points and QB1 by value on the DraftKings board, with a lot of help from his talented teammates and a ripe 44.5-point total. On FanDuel, Allen lands as just QB17 by points and QB11 by value, he seems far less relevant to the blue site and could have less value than his price-driven raw score might suggest. Christian McCaffrey is the clear top option from the 49ers, he is a volume monster in the first place and should only see increased opportunities as the team supports the backup signal caller. McCaffrey has been over 100 yards from scrimmage in both of his games since returning, posting 39 yards on 13 carries and 68 yards on six catches over seven targets in Week 10 and gaining 79 yards on 19 carries with four catches going for 27 yards in Week 11. He has yet to get into the end zone this season but the heavy volume will lead to scoring without fail. McCaffrey is a high-priced high-end option as RB1/3 on DraftKings and RB1/1 on the FanDuel slate. Deebo Samuel Sr. slots in as WR13 by points but WR25 by value on DraftKings and WR15/26 across sites on FanDuel, he is a fair pivot from the upside provided by McCaffrey, they have similar skill sets with explosive ability in both the passing and rushing attacks when given the ball and a touch of space. Samuel sees 5.8 targets per game and adds three carries on average, with one rushing and one receiving touchdown for the season. Tight end George Kittle checks in as TE4 by points and TE13 by value on DraftKings and has similar upside as TE5/12 on FanDuel. The tight end has been one of the leading options for scoring at the position with seven touchdowns on 6.6 targets per game. Kittle missed last week but is off of the injury report and expected to be fully engaged in the action as a premium play at his position for Week 12. Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are second and third on the receiver chart. Jennings has been excellent in stepping into the Brandon Aiyuk role in the passing game while Pearsall is an explosive rookie talent who scored in Week 10 but failed to catch either of his two targets last week while Jennings exploded for 10 catches, 91 yards, and a touchdown. The receiver puts up numbers every time he draws volume and he has the clear trust of the coaching staff, with Kittle returning it is far more likely to be Pearsall who sees a continuing volume cut with Jennings maintaining upside for targets and scoring. Jennings is WR23/32 and WR20/23 across sites while Pearsall is just WR52/61 and WR56/59, though their competing 9.7-yard and 8.9-yard average depths of target both have appeal whenever there is any certainty of involvement. Jordan Mason was terrific while McCaffrey was out, he has carried the ball three times in two games since his teammate’s return and is unlikely to have projectable upside until he starts for a different team next season. Remaining 49ers are no more than depth darts with low-volume and limited potential.
San Francisco is Stack 8 by points and Stack 10 by value on DraftKings even with the backup quarterback in play, on FanDuel they are Stack 9 by points and Stack 11 by value.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game Total: 41.0 / TB -6.0 (23.5 imp)
Plays: 40.74% rush / 59.26% pass / 27.9 ppg / 5.0 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 5.3 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass / 22.2 ppg / 11.58% sack / 0.36% int
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Mike Evans (Q; likely), Bucky Irving, Cade Otton, Rachaad White, Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, Trey Palmer (large field), Rakim Jarrett (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Malik Nabers (Q; dnp), Tyrone Tracy Jr., Wan’Dale Robinson, Devin Singletary (on/off), Darius Slayton, Theo Johnson
Lineup Notes: Tampa Bay’s passing attack gets an arm back with Mike Evans likely to rejoin the group this week. Evans and counterpart Chris Godwin were both felled in a Week 7 disaster but the receiver should return with his typical touchdown magnetism intact against a terrible Giants defense. New York is good at sacking quarterbacks and that is about it. The team barely benefits from the pressure, they allow a 22nd-ranked 7.5 yards per pass and 32nd-ranked 5.3 yards per rush attempt. Evans has six touchdowns on 6.4 targets per game over the six and a half games for which he has been active, he is a major weapon with a nose for the end zone and big play catches on a 10.8-yard average depth of target and 23.97% of the air yards. Evans remains elite as WR7/13 and WR10/10 but watch for any Sunday morning reporting around injury status or potentially limited involvement. If Evans returns, he and quarterback Baker Mayfield make a dynamic top-end pairing for a fair price on both sites. Mayfield is QB10 by points and QB11 by value on DraftKings and lands as QB12/14 on FanDuel. The signal caller has 24 touchdown passes against just nine interceptions in a strong season. Mayfield throws a solid 34.4 passes per game, completing 71.0% of them for 250.5 yards per game and 7.3 per attempt and he even added two rushing touchdowns to the total this season. Mayfield was held in check to some degree in more recent games, most notably with just 116 yards and one touchdown on 18-29 passing against the 49ers in Week 10, assuming Evans is back the touchdown upside is too. Bucky Irving and Rachaad White are both involved out of the backfield, with White seeing more opportunities in the passing game and Irving producing more value overall. The rookie gains 5.1 yards per rush attempt over his 9.6 carries per game to White’s lousy 3.8 yards per attempt on 8.9 carries per contest. White picks up ground in the passing game where he has seen a steady stream of targets with 4.6 on average and upside into the six or seven range. White extracts most of his DFS scoring value from PPR formats via the heavy targeting on easy catches, his gains are limited to 7.1 yards per target, though he has four receiving touchdowns and a rushing touchdown on the board. Irving has four rushing touchdowns but has not found the end zone in the passing game yet in his rookie campaign. Irving is RB15 by points and RB6 by value at a cheap $5,300 price tag on DraftKings, for $6,800 on FanDuel he is less appealing as RB17/12. White is similarly ranked as RB19/11 and RB21/23. Cade Otton is a talented tight end who draws 7.0 targets per game and was the team’s leading target in the absence of the two primary receivers. Otton has four touchdowns over a five-yard average depth of target and 17.49% of the team’s air yards. On raw scoring, Otton is TE8 on both sites but he slips to TE16 by value on DraftKings and is just TE13 by value on the blue site. Down the depth chart, receivers Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard will be rendered less relevant with Evans’ return, if the star veteran does not play they will be mix-in value darts. McMillan has a touchdown on 3.7 targets per game in his six contests this season but has been out since Week 8, he practiced in full all week. Shepard slots in as WR54/58 and WR51/56, he caught one pass on three targets and gained three yards on a single carry last game after showing more value in Week 9. Ryan Miller and Rakim Jarrett are mix-in plays at best, Jarrett caught two of four targets for 10 yards last week and peaked with three catches for 58 yards in his debut in Week 8 but has not scored.
The Buccaneers are Stack 10 by points and Stack 6 by value on DraftKings, assuming the return of Mike Evans. They are STack 11 by points and Stack 13 by value on FanDuel
Tennessee Titans
Game Total: 41.0 / TEN +9.0 (16.0 imp)
Plays: 44.08% rush / 55.92% pass / 17.0 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass / 21.5 ppg / 8.56% sack / 3.86% int
Key Player: Will Levis
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyler Boyd, Chig Okonkwo, Julius Chestnut (on/off; large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, John Metchie III, Dare Ogunbowale (on/off)
Lineup Notes: The Titans are a low-end option once again this week, though running back Tony Pollard could benefit from an uptick in workload with Tyjae Spears out and Calvin Ridley remains a dangerous weapon for big scoring plays. Pollard gains 4.3 yards per rush attempt over 16.0 carries per game and has three rushing touchdowns on the season. The running back started the year strong but has faded for scoring despite continued involvement. Pollard does meet our standard of 20 potential touches with another 4.0 coming via targeting in the passing attack but he has failed to reach the end zone for a receiving touchdown this season. The running back slots in as RB20 by points and RB19 by value on DraftKings and RB18 by points and RB19 by value on FanDuel. Pollard saw reduced volume in each of the last two games, picking up just nine carries and four targets in each contest. The running back averages 24 touches when Spears sits but he is just a fairly-priced mid-range play against a Houston defense that has held opponents to just 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game, the third-best mark in football. Ridley is capable of huge scoring outbursts on massive plays, he gained 84 yards on five catches and scored twice in Week 10 against a strong Chargers defense but dipped to just four catches for 58 yards and failed to score last week. Ridley has a highly appealing 16.0-yard average depth of target that ranks as one of the deepest averages among the team-by-team top receiving options on the slate. Ridley has three receiving touchdowns and picked up another on a rushing play that exploited his top-end speed for a score. The receiver dominates the board with a 54.9% air yards share, the highest portion on the entire slate but it is important to remember that that represents 54.9% of a passing attack led by Will Levis. The quarterback completes 66.0% of his 25.57 passes per game for just 6.5 yards per attempt and 167.0 yards per game this season. Levis has an even split with eight touchdown passes and eight interceptions, he offers very little other than a semi-functional delivery mechanism to get balls to Ridley. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had a 117-yard outburst with a receiving touchdown last week, though that came on just two catches despite six targets. The receiver hauled in a huge 98-yard third-down play to account for the touchdown and most of the yardage, he remains a low volume second or third option behind Ridley and tight end Chig Okonkwo, though the receiver is up to five touchdown catches on the season. Ridley is WR16/15 and WR19/14 across sites, he is the far more appealing option for scoring potential but Westbrook-Ikhine could slip through at WR50/53 and WR46/50 at the fringes of playability. Okonkwo is TE14 by points but TE9 by value on DraftKings but just TE15/16 on FanDuel, he has a single touchdown on the season and it came way back in Week 1. Tyler Boyd is a similarly limited option who has failed to score on 3.3 targets per game and a 7.5-yard average depth of target this season. Boyd has neither scored nor cracked 50 yards for the season, he is a non-factor in this offense. Julius Chestnut should draw limited backup touches behind Pollard but he is not cheap or involved enough to create value despite a solid 4.4 yards per rush attempt in limited action. Depth options including Nick Vannett, Bryce Oliver, and others lack appeal in the weak offense. The Titans are carrying just a 16-point implied team total into action this week, they are wildly unappealing as a stack with Levis ranking as QB16/18 and QB18/19 across sites.
The Titans are Stack 20 by points and Stack 19 by value on FanDuel and Stack 21/21 on DraftKings
Washington Commanders
Game Total: 45.0 / WAS -10.5 (27.75 imp)
Plays: 49.93% rush / 50.07% pass / 28.0 ppg / 4.7 ypa rush / 7.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 8.3 ypa pass / 29.3 ppg / 7.97% sack / 2.17% int
Key Player: Jayden Daniels
Setting: at most two / at least one (this allows for both “naked” Jayden Daniels lineups and multi-player stacks, utilize with max/min exposure rules)
Team Group: Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin, Noah Brown, Zach Ertz, Austin Ekeler (on/off), Dyami Brown (large field), Luke McCaffrey (large field), Olamide Zaccheaus (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: CeeDee Lamb, Rico Dowdle, Brandin Cooks, Luke Schoonmaker, Jalen Tolbert, KaVontae Turpin
Lineup Notes: With Dallas limping into town for a division rivalry matchup against the Commanders there should be little reason to doubt Washington’s potential as 10.5-point favorites in a home game carrying a 45.0-point total. Washington picks up significant touchdown potential across the board among likely rushers with a 27.75-point implied team total, the passing attack is also bolstered in a quality game environment. Washington faces a Dallas defense that allows 4.7 yards per rush attempt and a 31st-ranked (out of 32) 8.3 yards per pass attempt on the season. Dallas has given up 3.4 touchdowns and 29.3 points per game this season, again both ranked 31st in the NFL. The Cowboys are simply bad on dfense, they generate a 27.7% pressure rate but do little with it given their 7.97% sack rate that sits 12th and a 2.17% interception rate that ranks 15th. The Cowboys are vulnerable to everything that Washington does well, the Commanders have been one of the top-scoring teams in the league with 28.0 points per game and an average of 2.9 touchdowns that ranks seventh overall. Washington slots in with 4.7 yards per rush attempt and 7.9 yards per pass in standout quarterback Jayden Daniels’ rookie campaign with much of the magic coming via the team’s excellent 1.7 rushing touchdowns per game, the third-highest average in the league. Daniels has been a terrific passer on low volume in his rookie season, throwing the ball just 26.73 times per game but completing 69.0% of his pass attempts for an excellent 8.0 yards per attempt. The rookie sensation has 10 touchdown passes against just three interceptions and he has run the ball in four times with 5.2 yards per attempt on 8.4 carries per game. Daniels is QB1 by points and QB4 by value on the shorter DraftKings slate, he is QB2 by points and QB6 by value on FanDuel this week and is highly targetable with his ability to score in a variety of ways. Leading running back Brian Robinson Jr. has seven rushing touchdowns on the season and depth options pad the team’s elite scoring potential on the ground with four scores going to Austin Ekeler and another four for third-string Jeremy McNichols. Robinson is by far the lead option, but Ekler sees a fair share of opportunities while McNichols is far more limited for touches. Robinson missed Weeks 9 and 10 but returned for 16 carries on which he gained 63 yards and scored a touchdown in Week 11 but Ekeler still managed to pick up eight catches for 89 yards on nine targets out of the backfield while carrying the ball twice for seven yards. The running back was kept out of the end zone for the first time in three weeks with the red zone volume going back to Robinson where it belongs. Robinson is RB10 by points but RB2 by value on DraftKings and RB11/15 on FanDuel this week. Ekeler is more limited as a touchdown-dependent dart with a bit of PPR value-add as RB22/23 and RB25/25 across sites. Terry McLaurin leads the team with a 42.17% air yards share on 6.2 targets per game over a 14.4-yard average depth of target. The first-read option is an excellent downfield weapon with explosive big play potential and steady volume, he has six touchdowns on the season with the opportunity to come away with multiple scores on any given slate. Noah Brown slides in as the second option behind McLaurin, he provides similar potential for big plays on an 11.9-yard average depth of target but has picked up just one touchdown over 4.7 targets per game. Brown is WR31 by points but WR8 by value on the DraftKings slate, he is WR29/17 on FanDuel, McLaurin is WR9/19 and WR12/20 across sites as the top option in pairings with Daniels but Brown is right in the mix from a value perspective. Zach Ertz is a viable tight end play as TE10/5 and TE10/7 across sites, he has two touchdowns and a 19.79% air yards share on the season and comes cheap for just $3,800 on DraftKings this week. Dyami Brown, Luke McCaffrey, and Olamide Zaccheaus have been functionally interchangeable options for price and popularity in lineups over the past few weeks. Zaccheaus has seen 3.1 targets per game this season with the other two limited to 1.5 targets, but it has not led to a touchdown. Brown has the group’s only score of the year and has been targeted five times over the past two games, though he has done little in recent weeks. McCaffrey sees a 7.8-yard average depth of target that leads the limited group but that is not a high-level mark in general, none of the receivers ranks better than WR44 in any category on either site.
The Commanders are a strong buy as Stack 7 by points and Stack 2 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 7 by points but Stack 8 on the FanDuel slate
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