The main NFL DFS slate features too many viable combinations to count in a lifetime, even when we eliminate several of the lower-end stacks we are left with possibilities galore at several positions. With NFL DFS picks, tips, tricks, touts, shoutouts, tweets, spreadsheets, slams, and sims coming from every direction all week, the purpose of this article is to feature a few plays for which our projections land above or below what appears to be the industry standard for the week, which will identify plays that are potentially over or undervalued by the public.

*note – despite the title of this article and what would probably be a more logical configuration, the “below” category comes first in the following content.

NFL DFS Sunday Main Slate Above/Below – Week 8

Below

Joe Mixon – Running Back – Cincinnati Bengals – $5,800/$6,500

In an offense that we like a lot this week, Joe Mixon slips in priority behind the passing attack. Mixon ranks as just RB19 by points on DraftKings and FanDuel with a 22nd-ranked value mark on both sites. The running back has been very good for fantasy purposes over his career but his performance this year has taken a bit of an overall dip and he is facing a tough challenge in the 49ers rush defense. Mixon has gained 3.8 yards per rush attempt this season with only one touchdown on the ground, he is involved in the passing attack with 3.5 targets and 2.5 catches per game, and three red zone targets on the season, but he is yet to score through the air and the San Francisco defense is tough in the box and has allowed just 79.29 yards per game and 0.43 touchdowns per game to running backs this season. Mixon can be included in stacks of Bengals players, he is more limited on his own in lineups and we will be behind the field on the option while getting ahead on the quarterback and pass catchers from this team.

Joshua Dobbs – Quarterback – Arizona Cardinals – $5,200/$6,600

Arizona quarterback Joshua Dobbs had a good start to the season but his performance has fallen off in recent weeks. Dobbs has completed 62% of this passes for 194 yards per game and he has thrown just six touchdowns in seven games. The quarterback has a solid 8.5 intended air yards per attempt but has managed to complete just 3.9 air yards per attempt and lands toward the bottom of the league at 5.9 raw yards per pass attempt for the season. Dobbs and his limited receiving corps will be facing a good defense in a home game against the Ravens, Baltimore has allowed just 4.5 yards per pass attempt this season and 176 yards through the air overall while giving up just four touchdowns on the season in the passing game. Baltimore gains pressure 21.6% of the time on a 30.3% blitz rate but the have managed a limited 14 sacks, Dobbs will be pressured at least and there is potential that the Baltimore defense could pay off against him if they manage to bring him down behind the line of scrimmage a few times. The Cardinals are the bottom-ranked stack on our board this week after spending several weeks among the interesting value plays.

TJ Hockenson — Tight End – Minnesota Vikings – $6,200/$6,500

Kirk Cousins will lead his Vikings against an underrated Packers pass defense this week. Green Bay has allowed just 6.1 yards per pass attempt to rank 11th in the league and they have a 25.2% pressure rate on 35.6% blitzes with 16 sacks on the season. The team has managed just four interceptions, so Cousins may be able to thread the needle if he is not running for his life, but we expect a slightly more limited game from Minnesota in the continued absence of Justin Jefferson. Tight end TJ Hockenson is a premium option at his position, but we land somewhat behind the industry average projection on him this week. Hockenson ranks 3rd by raw fantasy points but 12th by points-per-dollar on DraftKings, he sits 3rd and 2nd overall on FanDuel, we will be invested in the option from a positional sense on the blue site but we will be a bit lower-exposed than the field with the player projected about 1 point behind the curve in our model. Hockenson draws eight targets per game to lead the current configuration of this offense, he has scored twice this season and has a 6.3-yard ADOT while drawing targets on 27% of the routes that he runs.

Lingering Lows

• Mac Jones
• Russell Wilson
• Marquise Brown
• Brandon Aiyuk
• Zach Wilson
• Elijah Moore
• George Pickens
• Chuba Hubbard/Miles Sanders
• Jaylen Warren/Najee Harris
• Bijan Robinson/Tyler Allegier

Above

Jalen Hurts – Quarterback – Philadelphia Eagles – $8,200/$9,200

Jalen Hurts ranks as QB1 by raw projections on both sites this week, he looks like an outstanding option against the Commanders, who have allowed 7.4 yards per pass attempt to rank 29th out of the league’s 32 teams. Hurts sees additional upside in a 23rd-ranked rush defense that has given up 4.4 yards per rush attempt this season, the entire Eagles offense is looking good today. This game is a repeat of a Week 4 matchup that ended in a 34-31 Eagles victory in Philadelphia, similar output for scoring is possible on both sides and the Commanders seem likely to hang tough with Philadelphia again in Week 8, which pushes the potential for a big scoring day for Hurts. The quarterback has put up nine touchdowns, though he has thrown eight interceptions on the season, and he has added a whopping six touchdowns on the ground already this season. Hurts has significant scoring upside from getting the ball into the end zone in both aspects of the position and he has a good chance to pad yardage and scoring against a team that has allowed 14 passing touchdowns already this season. Washington gains pressure 24.5% of the time on a 28.1% blitz rate, but Hurts has strong escape ability and should not have an issue with the opposing defense. We plan to land ahead of the field on the option this week.

CJ Stroud – Quarterback – Houston Texans – $6,300/$7,400

The Texans passing attack is a priority play in our models and sims this week, CJ Stroud and his receivers are significantly underpriced with Houston ranking 1st by points-per-dollar as a unit on the DraftKings slate and 4th on the blue site. Stroud has played very well this season, his lone interception came in a 13-27 performance with 199 yards and two touchdowns last week, and he has thrown multiple touchdowns in several games. Stroud has a developing connection with dynamic receiver Tank Dell who is returning this week, but veteran Robert Woods will be OUT. Nico Collins is a strong lead WR option and Dalton Schultz is perhaps our favorite value at tight end. Schultz has at least one Red Zone target in EVERY game this season and he has scored touchdowns in three straight games, he is significantly involved and he comes very cheap. Stroud and his receivers are facing a Carolina pass defense that has allowed 197 yards per game and 10 touchdowns through the air this season, they have 19 sacks on a 31.1% blitz rate and 25.4% pressure, but they have been vulnerable through the air all season and rank 26th with 7.0 yards allowed per pass attempt. The Panthers also sit 28th against the run, allowing 4.9 yards per rush attempt, Dameon Pierce has potential in the ground game in a stack that could provide major value on both sites this week. We will be ahead of the field on Stroud and the Texans across the board.

Travis Etinne Jr. – Running Back – Jacksonville Jaguars – $7,200/$8,700

The Steelers rank 27th against the run this season, allowing 4.7 yards per rush attempt and 142.3 yards per game, though they have limited opposing backs to .67 touchdowns per game this year. Travis Etienne Jr. has been a strong option at the position with dominant volume in the rush and passing game, he has seen 80% of the snaps on the season with 18 carries and an additional 3 touches per game through receptions. A running back with a 20+ touch average is an excellent play in virtually any situation for NFL DFS, Etienne checks into Sunday as the RB2 by both points and value on DraftKings and RB2/6 on the blue site. The running back has gained 4.0 yards per rush attempt this season with seven rushing touchdowns. The Jaguars are a high-priority stack that ranks 5/5 on FanDuel and 4/2 on the DraftKings board, we will be ahead of the field on shares of Trevor Lawrence and his pass-catchers, with all three of Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, and Evan Engram looking like good plays, and Jamal Agnew providing a sneaky value dart in place of Zay Jones, but Etienne is an excellent play both in stacks and on his own, we plan to be well ahead of the field’s single-digit ownership marks on both sites.

Honorable Mentions:

• Lamar Jackson
• Derek Carr
• Juwan Johnson
• Tank Dell
• Dalton Shultz
• Mark Andrews
• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua
• DeVonta Smith
• Patrick Mahomes/Travis Kelce
• KJ Osborn

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