The main NFL DFS slate features too many viable combinations to count in a lifetime, even when we eliminate several of the lower-end stacks we are left with possibilities galore at several positions. With NFL DFS picks, tips, tricks, touts, shoutouts, tweets, spreadsheets, slams, and sims coming from every direction all week, the purpose of this article is to feature a few plays for which our projections land above or below what appears to be the industry standard for the week, which will identify plays that are potentially over or undervalued by the public.

*note – despite the title of this article and what would probably be a more logical configuration, the “below” category comes first in the following content.

NFL DFS Sunday Main Slate Above/Below – Week 7

Below

Zach Evans – Running Back – Los Angeles Rams – $4,000/$4,800

Overnight reporting on Saturday has both Royce Freeman and Darrell Henderson Jr., who was just signed off the street this week, ahead of Zach Evans on the running back depth chart going into this week with Kyren Williams landing on the IR. Freeman is a veteran back who has not had a relevant season for several years, the ground game could belong to Henderson who was a part of this offense for the past four seasons and is still just 24 years old. Henderson has potential and Evans seems likely to be over-owned at his very cheap pricing and buzzy early-week reporting, as well as a bit of output filling in last week. Evans saw six snaps with the offense in his second game last week in emergency work, he carried the ball four times for 10 yards and was 0-2 in the passing game. Evans was a sixth-round pick in this year’s draft, the team does not have a massive amount of draft capital invested in finding out if he is worth anything at this point, Evans seems safe to leave on the shelf and we expect the industry to catch up with the lower-end nature of the play as the morning rolls toward lock.

Lamar Jackson – Quarterback – Baltimore Ravens – $7,600/$8,000

Lamar Jackson is a player that we like for DFS purposes a great deal, he projects very well in the model this week and he lands as QB5 on FanDuel and QB6 on DraftKings by raw fantasy points in our Week 7 QB Rankings. Jackson is the sixth-ranked FanDuel option by points-per-dollar but he drops to 16th at the position at a high relative price on DraftKings. Jackson is a tremendous talent with both his arm and his ability in the running game, he is second in carries and red zone rushing among quarterbacks and he had two rushing touchdowns in each of weeks three and four. Jackson has just five passing touchdowns on the season, he has been effective overall but the limited scoring output through the air is a bit of a concern. Jackson has three games this season in which he threw zero touchdown passes and he only scored on the ground (twice) in one of those weeks. Jackson’s primary challenge this week will come in the form of a solid Lions defense that ranks sixth with 5.7 yards per pass attempt allowed and second with just 3.3 yards per rush attempt yielded so far this season. Detroit has a 26.5% pressure rate and 15 sacks in their six games this season, and they have posted an interception per game, they will press Jackson and their defense is a reasonable dart throw at low ownership. Jackson remains highly projected, he can be played as an individual or in combination with correlated teammates including the high-end options in Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, but we are roughly 1.5 points behind the industry average projection and will likely land below projected ownership on the quarterback and Baltimore stacks.

Mike Evans – Wide Receiver – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,100/$7,600

Mike Evans had a tremendous start to his 2023 season, posting a touchdown in each of the first three weeks on 10, eight, and 10 targets for 66, 171(!), and 60 yards. He has not scored in the team’s two games since that stretch and he posted just 49 yards on 4 catches in their Week 6 matchup against Detroit despite receiving 10 targets. Evans had just 40 yards in Week 4 prior to the team’s bye, but he received just three targets on 20 routes in 25 snaps that week. The receiver has had a tremendous career and he still maintains upside with his connection as the primary receiver for Baker Mayfield and the first read option in the team’s offense, but he is pressed for some targets by the presence of teammate Chris Godwin and he is not a young receiver, expecting premium performances week after week is a lot to ask, and the Bucs are facing an underappreciated Atlanta defense this week. Atlanta ranks seventh with 5.8 yards allowed per pass attempt and they have maintained a very strong 29.6% pressure rate though they have managed just 10 sacks this year. Evans projects as our WR15 by FanDuel points but just WR27 by points-per-dollar value, he is similarly ranked as WR16 by raw points but WR41 by points-per-dollar on the DraftKings slate.

Lingering Lows

• George Pickens
• Las Vegas Defense
• Baker Mayfield
• Mac Jones
• James Cook
• Jaleel McLaughlin
• Cole Kmet
• Keontay Ingram
• DJ Moore

Above

Geno Smith – Quarterback – Seattle Seahawks – $6,000/$7,000

Geno Smith is one of our top projected quarterbacks of the week, he sits roughly 2.25 points ahead of the industry average projection in our model in a fantastic matchup against the Cardinals’ defense. Smith ranks as QB3 by raw fantasy points on both DraftKings and FanDuel and he sits second by points-per-dollar on DraftKings and first by value on the blue site. Smith has had three solid yardage games in the team’s first five games (bye week in Week 5). He posted 328 yards on 32-41 with two touchdowns in Week 2, 296 yards on 23-36 with a touchdown and an interception in Week 3, then had a rough outing in a game that he was knocked out of with an injury for a short time, putting up just 110 yards on 13-20 passing, but he came roaring back with 326 yards on 27-41 in Week 6, although it was in a somewhat empty performance with two interceptions and zero touchdowns. Smith has a top-tier running back and several solid options in the passing game, though top receiver DK Metcalf is a game-time decision with an injury. The Cardinals rank 28th with 7.3 yards allowed per pass attempt this season and they have given up nine touchdown passes this season while registering just four interceptions. Smith is a high-end quarterback who ranks well in adjusted advanced statistics, he is highly accurate most weeks and has major potential, but he comes with a bit of buzzy industry interest. We will be ahead of the current projected ownership on Smith and Seahawks stacks, but the field is closing in on our upper tolerances and leverage is thinning.

Jordan Love – Quarterback – Green Bay Packers – $5,800/$7,800

Packers quarterback Jordan Love ranks as QB4 by raw projections on FanDuel and QB5 on DraftKings while sitting third on both sites by points-per-dollar value in a league-best matchup against the inept Denver Broncos defense. Denver currently ranks 32 against both the run and the pass when it comes to yards allowed per attempt, coughing up an atrocious 5.6 yards per rush attempt and 8.2 yards per pass attempt. Love should benefit from facing a team allowing that much yardage while also gaining pressure on the quarterback at just a 16.7% clip with 14 sacks on the season. The quarterback threw three touchdown passes with no interceptions in each of the first two weeks of this season and he followed those performances with two games of about 250 yards passing, though he threw just one touchdown in each of those with one interception in the first and two in the second. He topped that with no touchdowns and three interceptions in a messy Week 5 at Las Vegas that saw him throw for a season-low 182 yards on 16-30 passing. Love ranks in the bottom third of the league with 6.7 yards per pass attempt and he sits dead last by adjusted completion rate with a raw completion rate of just 56% sitting at the bottom of this slate’s options. Love has the potential for an outburst at very fair pricing and what looks like low industry ownership, he should be a strong option on this slate and he has good skill players to utilize with a lingering hope of Denver holding up enough offense to keep the game high-scoring.

You look familiar… 

For better or worse, we are slightly ahead of early morning industry averages on both Mecole Hardman Jr. and Darrell Henderson Jr. both of whom are rejoining their former teams with the expectation of playing on Sunday. Hardman has a wildly undefined role with the Chiefs, but he knows the offense inside out and has posted productive seasons with Kansas City over the past few years. Hardman played just eight games in 2022 and posted 297 yards and four touchdowns. he had 693 yards and two touchdowns in 17 games in 2021, 560 yards and four TDs in 2020, and 538 yards with six scoring receptions in 2019. Hardman has the potential to immediately become a fixture in the Kansas City passing attack in a slate-leading game on the slate-leading team. Henderson rejoins the Rams and he is expected to share the lead duties with Royce Freeman, who we also have ahead of industry projections. Freeman has been with the team as a member of the practice squad this season, but Henderson spent the last four years with the Rams. The still-just 24-year-old running back played 10 games last year and had 70 carries for 283 yards and 3 TDs. Henderson played 12 games in 2021, putting up 149 carries for 688 and 5 TDs, and he had 138 carries for 624 and 5 TDs in 2020. Henderson is a $5,000 option on FanDuel, he has yet to be added to the DraftKings slate.

Honorable Mentions:

• Washington Passing Game
• Joshua Dobbs
• Jerick McKinnon
• Sam LaPorta
• Dawson Knox
• Luke Musgrave
• Davante Adams
• Puka Nacua
• Patrick Mahomes

Follow Us on Twitter. Join us in Discord. Subscribe to the YouTube Channel.