The main NFL DFS slate features too many viable combinations to count in a lifetime, even when we eliminate several of the lower-end stacks we are left with possibilities galore at several positions. With NFL DFS picks, tips, tricks, touts, shoutouts, tweets, spreadsheets, slams, and sims coming from every direction all week, the purpose of this article is to feature a few plays for which our projections land above or below what appears to be the industry standard for the week, which will identify plays that are potentially over or undervalued by the public.

*note – despite the title of this article and what would probably be a more logical configuration, the “below” category comes first in the following content.

NFL DFS Sunday Main Slate Above/Below – Week 3

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Rachaad White – Running Back – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,100 DK / $7,000 FD – RB19 points/RB25 value DraftKings; RB21/RB32 FanDuel

Tampa Bay running back Rachaad White provided a fair amount of value and volume scoring last season, picking up significant action on the ground and in the passing game. White is not the most skilled runner but he was able to compile fantasy points and beat his salary week after week on sheer volume and will at the position. He managed to pull that trick once in two games early in 2024. In the season’s first week, White was relatively limited on the ground, posting just  31 yards on 15 carries but he picked up a 75-yard total on 6-6 receiving, running 21 routes in addition to the 15 touches on the ground over his 42 snaps. White’s 21 potential and 21 actual touches were a significant workload that helped him crack 90 yards from scrimmage but he did not see the end zone in Week 1 or Week 2. White was far more limited against a better Detroit front in Week 2. The running back carried the ball 10 times for just 18 yards and picked up one catch on one target for a five-yard gain. White will be pushed throughout the season by rookie Bucky Irving, who has been good but not a standout over two weeks. Irving carried the ball nine times for 62 yards in Week 1 and seven times for 22 yards in Week 2, adding 14  yards on 2-3 receiving in Week 1 but going untargeted on eight routes in Week 2. Irving checks every box that White does on the field and he is a higher-caliber talent who simply needs to find his footing in the NFL, it would not surprise to see him take this job sooner than later. For Week 3, Rachaad White lands as a lightly projected overpriced option on both DraftKings and FanDuel, we do not have him at a low projection overall but we are several points lower than the industry average.

Cam Akers – Running Back – Houston Texans  – $4,700 DK /$4,000 FD – RB26 points/RB18 value DraftKings; RB23/RB1 FanDuel

It is important to remember the point of this article when reading this section. While this is ostensibly a “we do not like Cam Akers that much” note, the running back does land as the number one overall option by points-per-dollar in our model on FanDuel while falling as RB18 by points-per-dollar on the DraftKings slate. Akers is simply very low cost on the blue site at just $4,000, he is a slightly more prohibitive option against the cap at the higher salary across town. Akers has been in the league since 2020, he gained a career-high 786 yards on 188 carries with seven touchdowns in 15 games with the Rams in the 2022 season but was a lost cause in one game with Los Angeles and six with Minnesota last season, amassing just 167 yards on 60 carries and scoring two touchdowns. Akers’ 3.6 yards per rush attempts were a career low. The running back was on the practice squad in Week 1, he did not play in the game but he did make the cut for Week 2, playing 13 snaps and carrying the ball seven times for 32 yards. Akers added three carries on 1-1 receiving while running six routes. The running back will presumably step into the lead role in the backfield with both Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce missing Sunday’s game, but he will be sharing the backfield and the passing action with veteran Dare Ogunbowale, who has limited appeal but will drain volume and precious touches from an already limited Akers. The running back is not an overly appealing option for anything but raw points per dollar, his ownership is likely to outpace his upside on this slate and we are a couple of points below the industry average median projection.

Deshaun Watson – Quarterback – Cleveland Browns – $5,500 DK / $7,300 FD – QB13 points/QB11 value DraftKings; QB13/QB11 FanDuel

As a mid-ranked option on both sites, quarterback Deshaun Watson is not an overly appealing play for NFL DFS action in a game against a targetable Giants defense this week. New York has allowed an aggressive ypa mark against both the pass and the run over the first two weeks of the season but Watson has been limited and has yet to find his old form. The quarterback peaked with 4,823 yards and 33 touchdown passes in a terrific 2020 season, throwing the ball 544 times and completing 382 passes while adding another 444 yards and three touchdowns on 90 carries. Since 2020, Watson has thrown 420 passes and completed 250 of them for a total of 2,572 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in three seasons. Watson has rushed for 376 yards on 72 carries with three rushing touchdowns in the interval as well. The quarterback’s limitations are the downside for the Browns, he has capable weapons on offense with receivers Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy leading the way, and running back Jerome Ford seems well-aligned for a big day against a mostly inept New York defense. Watson is projected several points behind the average in our model this week, we would prefer standalone shares of Ford to stacks with Watson+1 or Watson+2 shares on either site.

Lingering Lows

• Patrick Mahomes
• Bo Nix
• Will Levis
• Andy Dalton
• Caleb Williams
• Zach Charbonnet
• Chuba Hubbard
• Diontae Johnson
• Devin Singletary
• Samaje Perine
• DJ Moore
• Josh Jacobs

Don’t miss our full breakdown in the Groups/Stacks article, complete with full game notes & stack rankings for every team

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Derek Carr – Quarterback – New Orleans Saints – $5,800 DK /$7,900 FD – QB4 points/QB2 value DraftKings; QB4/QB1 FanDuel

The player who lands further beyond the average than any other in our model this week is Saints quarterback Derek Carr who checks in as QB4/2 on DraftKings and QB4/1 on FanDuel, his slate-leading point-per-dollar mark on the blue site is particularly appealing. Carr has his Saints off to a terrific start, developing a quick connection with downfield nuclear bomb Rashid Shaheed and unleashing Alvin Kamara over the first two weeks. Carr chewed up the lousy Carolina defense for 200 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1, completing 19 of 23 pass attempts in an excellent performance. In Week 2, the veteran signal-caller completed just 11 passes but that was 68.8% of his 16 attempts and he still threw for 243 yards and a pair of touchdowns, though he lost an interception. Carr was limited for volume because the Saints ran away with a big win on Kamara’s emphatic four-touchdown afternoon. This week’s matchup against a limited Eagles defense that has been particularly vulnerable to the pass to start this year and throughout 2023 is appealing for Carr to return to more passing volume. The Saints offer an excellent running back for stacking in Kamara, he has seen major target volume in the passing game throughout his career and picked up five targets while carrying the ball 15 times in Week 1 and three targets with 20 rushing attempts in Week 2. Shaheed has drawn just nine targets in two games, catching seven of them. He had three catches for 73 yards and a score in Week 1 and four catches for 96 yards and a touchdown in Week 2, adding 13 yards on three rushing attempts. Shaheed has picked up a 17.6-yard average depth of target and 46.06% of the team’s air yards share despite his moderate volume, he is one of the top “home run” play options on the slate against a flimsy Eagles’ pass defense that ranks 26th with 7.6 yards allowed per pass attempt. The receiver is the downfield option in tandem with star Chris Olave who has drawn an 11.4-yard ADOT and 26.53% of the air yards on four targets per game but has not scored. His Week 2 was an uptick with four catches for 81 yards on six targets, he should continue to emerge in Week 3. With excellent weapons in a positive matchup on the strong side of one of the week’s most highly-totaled matchups, the question is not why we have Carr and his stack projected so strongly, it is why others do not.

Gardner Minshew II – Quarterback – Las Vegas Raiders – $5,300 DK /$7,200 FD – QB13 points/QB4 value DraftKings; QB14/QB13 FanDuel

As a play that could easily land better in theory than in practice, the Raiders and quarterback Gardner Minshew II look like a reasonably strong stack in our model, particularly in a point-per-dollar sense on the DraftKings slate. Minshew leads a passing attack that features a pair of good wide receivers and a top young tight end, if he can personally come through with good throws, one should expect high-end performances from his likely targets. Minshew and the Raiders are facing the lowly Panthers as 5.5-point favorites in a game with a mere 40-point total. There is some expectation that Carolina could pick up production in the offense with veteran Andy Dalton taking over. Carolina already plays a high-paced offense with an unsuccessful high-volume passing attack, they could keep things interesting. The Panthers’ defense has allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt on the season, 25th in football while giving up 164.5 yards per game through the air. That total ranks 10th which is deceptive because it comes on just 36.22% opponent pass play volume, the second-lowest mark in the league. Carolina has been bad enough that teams have not had to throw the ball much against them over the first two weeks, when their opponents have taken to the air they have been highly successful. Las Vegas currently leads the league in neutral passing rate, they have thrown the ball on 67.23% of their plays this season and have only limited options in the rushing game. Overall, this is a passing-friendly offense with significant weapons at the skill positions against a defense that should bend to their will through the air, they should not be overlooked in Week 3 and could easily provide an under-appreciated tournament-winning upside in stacks with Minshew at the helm. The best options for stacking with the quarterback are superstar receiver Davante Adams, who posted 9.2 yards per target in a 100-yard performance in Week 2 and was fairly solid in Week 1, as well as rookie tight end Brock Bowers, who has caught 15 passes for 156 yards over two games, and Jakobi Meyers who scored eight touchdowns last season but has been a bit of a forgotten man in the season’s first two games. Minshew is not a “safe” or even a comfortable option but he does have tournament appeal on either site in stacks with one or more of his teammates.

Tyreek Hill – Wide Receiver – Miami Dolphins – $8,400 DK / $9,000 FD – WR5 points/WR23 value DraftKings; WR4/WR19 FanDuel

It is easy to skip star receiver Tyreek Hill at the big ticket asking prices this week. Hill will be playing alongside backup quarterback Skylar Thompson, who has very little experience and even less success at the NFL level over his three years in the league. Thompson will be under center for a Dolphins team carrying just an 18-point implied total against a stout Seattle defense but the potentially under-owned big play nature of Miami’s skill weapons has our attention. In addition to running back De’Von Achane and fellow receiver Jaylen Waddle, Hill offers game-breaking potential any time the ball is in his hands. In Week 1, Hill caught seven of 12 targets for 130 yards and scored a touchdown. He followed that performance with a more limited three catches for 24 yards on six targets against the Bills in Week 2, adding a carry for 12 yards to the mix. With Tua Tagovailoa’s career in jeopardy and a backup under center, the Dolphins will pull out all the stops to as simply as possible get the ball to Tyreek, this could feed an under-appreciated upside, even in a bad situation, for one of the NFL’s most explosive players. Hill is projected closer to his standard performance in our model than in other places around the industry, he ranks as WR5/23 on DraftKings on his very high price and WR4/19 at an only slightly more affordable FanDuel sticker.

Jakobi Meyers – Wide Receiver – Las Vegas Raiders – $5,100 DK / $5,300 FD – WR32 points/WR32 value DraftKings; WR34/WR27 FanDuel

The last item on this week’s shopping list makes for a fine pairing with a Minshew stack. Receiver Jakobi Meyers will likely slip to third-highest ownership within lineups that choose to stack Raiders, landing behind both Davante Adams and tight end Brock Bowers in large-field tournaments. This is not a mistake by the field, Adams is easily deserving of the lead in shares while Bowers has been a high-volume target over the first two games of his career with solid production for the faith. Meanwhile, Meyers has caught seven passes across two games, putting up 61 yards on three receptions in Week 1 with 29 yards on four catches in Week 2. Meyers saw 51 snaps with the offense in Week 1, running 31 routes with a 9.7% target share on routes run. He picked up volume in Week 2, playing 56 snaps and running 35 routes with a 14.3% target share. In 2023, Meyers caught 71 passes, the second-highest total of his career, on 106 targets for 7.6 yards per target (807 yards) and eight touchdowns. The receiver has an underrated 14 touchdowns over the past two seasons across New England and Las Vegas, reaching that total in just 20 games, that is significant scoring output at any price. Meyers may be the third option in his passing attack but he is not bereft of volume and he carries a fair amount of lower-owned scoring potential in a viable stack against a bad defense, there is a lot to like in this play when stacked with his quarterback or as an inexpensive flier in non-stacked lineups.

Honorable Mentions:

• Brock Bowers
• Malik Nabers
• Carson Steele
• Quentin Johnston
• Rico Dowdle
• David Montgomery
• Justin Jefferson
• Bucky Irving
• Alec Pierce
• Christian Watson
• Davante Adams
• Sam LaPorta
• Jalen Hurts
• Steelers Defense
• Sam Darnold

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