The main NFL DFS slate features too many viable combinations to count in a lifetime, even when we eliminate several of the lower-end stacks we are left with possibilities galore at several positions. With NFL DFS picks, tips, tricks, touts, shoutouts, tweets, spreadsheets, slams, and sims coming from every direction all week, the purpose of this article is to feature a few plays for which our projections land above or below what appears to be the industry standard for the week, which will identify plays that are potentially over or undervalued by the public.

*note – despite the title of this article and what would probably be a more logical configuration, the “below” category comes first in the following content.

NFL DFS Sunday Main Slate Above/Below – Week 16

Below

Bijan Robinson – Running Back – Atlanta Falcons – $6,300/$7,100 – RB9 points/RB7 value DraftKings; RB9/RB7 FanDuel

Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson has been a visitor to the “below” space several times this season, he has tremendous talent but one of the league’s worst situations. Robinson and his fantasy owners, both in DFS and season-long, have been victimized by Atlanta coach Arthur Smith’s horrendous decision-making throughout the season. As the most recent example, in Week 15 Robinson posted just 11 yards on seven carries, with an additional three yards coming on his one catch (one target). Robinson saw only limited touches the week before as well, the first-round pick carried the ball just 10 times for 34 yards but he managed to score a touchdown to somewhat obfuscate the bad day and he added five catches for 54 yards to further pad PPR scoring formats. Robinson has all the talent and physical attributes necessary to succeed at the position, he just lacks a good line and a coach who believes in putting the ball in his hands 20 times week in, week out. The backfield has been a split situation to varying degrees throughout the season, in last week’s game backup Tyler Allegier carried the ball 14 times for 45 yards and caught his lone target for another six yards while receiving red zone touches. Allegier is a constant threat to the Robinson ceiling but even Cordarelle Patterson, an afterthought for most of this year, got in on the action last week with six total touches and eight potential touches. The opposing Colts have been OK against the run this season, allowing 4.1 yards per rush attempt to tie for 13th in the league, but they have limited rushing to just 3.7 yards per attempt over the team’s three most recent games and they have an opportunity to keep a tight lid on the potential for Robinson. At a fair amount of popularity, we land two points behind the industry average for the talented but trapped running back.

Devin Singletary – Running Back – Houston Texans – $5,500/$6,200 – RB18 points/RB16 value DraftKings; RB18/RB16 FanDuel

Another back who is drawing a bit of attention this week comes from the Houston Texans, who are facing the stout Cleveland defense this week. The Browns are a part of the tie at 4.1 yards allowed per rush attempt this season, they have also been at 3.7 yards per attempt over the past three games while allowing less than one touchdown per game, and they are very good at limiting the pass as well. Cleveland sits second in football with just 5.4 yards allowed per pass attempt on the season, they have the talent to shut down the Houston attack across the board, particularly with the visitors lacking their star rookie quarterback and handing the reins to Case Keenum once again. Singletary had a solid breakout over a few weeks spelling an injured Dameon Pierce, and he has continued to post fairly successful games in recent weeks with Pierce back in the fold. Singletary had 121 yards on 26 carries last week and he hauled in four of five targets to add another 49 yards from scrimmage. Pierce only carried the ball once in Week 15 and four times in Week 14, he has been a non-factor over the past four games, with the notable exception of Week 13, in which he carried the ball 15 times for 41 yards and scored a touchdown. Singletary could post a game that sees volume-based success, but he is facing a very good defense that will look to defang the running game to see if the backup quarterback can beat them. We land roughly 1.5 fantasy points behind the industry average on the running back and plan to own him below his currently mid-level ownership marks.

Geno Smith – Quarterback – Seattle Seahawks – $5,800/$6,600 – QB10 points/QB6 value ; QB11/QB4 FanDuel

Seattle quarterback Geno Smith has not had a big year on the heels of last year’s late-career breakout. Smith has thrown for 2,918 yards and 15 touchdowns with nine interceptions in his 12 games this year, with his basic completion rate dropping from 69.8% to 64.4% year over year. Smith has had a few bright spots, he has been over 300 yards twice in his past four games and four times this season but he has also had several clunkers along the way and he is coming back after missing two straight games. Smith will benefit from facing a banged-up Titans defense that was already operating one of the league’s heaviest pass funnels, with a seventh-ranked 3.9 yards allowed per rush attempt but an ugly 25th-ranked 6.9 yards per pass attempt. The Titans have been deceptively decent at keeping passes out of the end zone, however, they have allowed just 1.1 passing touchdowns per game on the season tying them with several teams in third place. Among the teams with which the Titans are tied are the 49ers, Jets, Colts, and Saints, all notably better pass defenses. Tennessee has a 20.2% pressure rate on a 21.7% blitz rate this season and they have racked up 41 sacks, tying them with the Browns and Vikings in eighth overall. The Titans are not a good defense, this is not an argument in their favor, but there are supporting points for considering the rocky Smith to be in a somewhat overrated situation for Week 16. We land roughly 1.5 points behind the industry average and will easily look to other value options with Smith drawing aggressively high ownership projections based on his pricing on FanDuel and upper-mid-level ownership on DraftKings. There is a good chance that Smith posts a fairly effective game tomorrow, we are just not coming up with the Seattle quarterback among the favored passer options for the Week 16 slate.

Lingering Lows

• Texans Defense
• Cardinals Defense
• Ty Chandler
• Trevor Siemian
• Jaylen Waddle
• Tucker Kraft
• Garrett Wilson
• Jonathan Taylor
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Kyler Murray

Don’t miss our full breakdown in the Groups/Stacks article, complete with notes & stack rankings for every team

Above

DJ Moore – Wide Receiver – Chicago Bears – $6,900/$8,200 – WR5 points/WR5 value DraftKings; WR4/WR5 FanDuel

With quarterback Justin Fields landing as the slate’s most highly projected player, it makes plenty of sense that his first-read star receiver would land firmly atop the “Above” board this week. DJ Moore has been a terrific weapon for Fields throughout the season, the two have established quick chemistry on the field and they have hooked up for monster fantasy scoring performances already. Moore caught just four of eight targets for 52 yards last week, he was better in Week 14 when he caught six of 10 for 68 yards and a touchdown while adding another 20 scrimmage yards and a second touchdown on his three carries. Moore is a dynamic talent who is capable of continuing to run gadget plays as a ball carrier, in addition to his steady, sometimes staggering, volume in the passing game. Moore has seen double-digit targets three times this season and has not been below eight targets in a week since Week 9. Of course, the pair’s highest mark of the season came in Week 5, with Moore coming up with eight catches for a massive 230 yards and three touchdowns. Fields is going to be popular around the industry, he ranks as QB1/QB2 on DraftKings and QB1/1 on FanDuel, Moore’s popularity will go hand-in-hand with Fields and could exceed that of the passer when non-stacked lineups are counted, this simply makes them good playable chalk on this slate. The Bears are facing a Cardinals defense that ranks 29th with 1.9 passing touchdowns allowed per game and 30th with 7.2 yards allowed per pass attempt. We land roughly a point ahead of the average on Fields and more than 1.75 points ahead on Moore, heavy Bears ownership is expected across our portfolio of lineups tomorrow, for better or worse.

Brandin Cooks – Wide Receiver – Dallas Cowboys – $4,900/$6,100 – WR22 points/WR24 value DraftKings; WR25/WR24 FanDuel

and

Jake Ferguson – Tight End – Dallas Cowboys – $4,900/$6,000 – TE6 points/TE4 value DraftKings; TE4/TE1 FanDuel

The Cowboys offense is in an interesting spot this week, they are almost forced to aggressively throw the ball if they are to keep up with the gameplan of high-flying Miami. Dallas is coming off of a disappointing matchup with a similarly high-profile AFC team after a bad loss to Buffalo last weekend. The Cowboys’ quarterback, Dak Prescott, threw for just 134 yards with no touchdowns and an interception after absolutely devastating opponents with the pass from Week 8 through Week 14. Over that stretch, Prescott threw for 22 touchdowns and he had three games between 300 and 400 yards and a 404-yard game, one in which he also threw four touchdown passes. The games around the edges of the run were not quite as elite, but Prescott threw at least two touchdown passes in every game during the run and he had a 299-yard three-touchdown game in Week 13. All of this is to say that the Cowboys will at least have someone capable of delivering the ball to featured pass-catchers. Ceedee Lamb is the team’s clear first read option, the superstar receiver has caught 103 of 141 passes for 1,306 yards and eight touchdowns this season, he is fantasy gold on the right Sunday, but he is also a big ticket item when it comes to his DFS pricing, and he plays on a team with several noteworthy options. Brandin Cooks is the number two receiver on the team, while tight end Jake Ferguson is a highly talented option with plenty of volume. Cooks has had an up-and-down season in Dallas, he caught just two passes in each of the last two games for a total of 47 yards while failing to score a touchdown. Cooks did score two weeks in a row in Weeks 12 and 13, with four catches in each game, but he has not posted a multi-touchdown game to this point in 2023, but his 12.5-yard ADOT is the highest he has seen over the past four seasons. Cooks has plenty of talent and he checks in at a good bargain price from the second-tier wide receiver pool, we land a full fantasy point ahead of the industry average projection and like Cooks as a solid second option in Prescott/Dallas stacks. Ferguson is also a terrific fit in those lineups. The tight end has five touchdowns on 57 catches and 614 yards this season, he is a ready, regular, reliable target in this offense and the team peppers him with red zone targets with frequency. Ferguson ranks about a point ahead of the industry average in our projections. The Cowboys will be facing a Miami team known for its offense, but their defense is quite good as well, Miami ranks seventh with 6.0 yards allowed per pass attempt and they have allowed 1.2 touchdown passes per game this year, landing them in an 8th-place tie. Dallas failed utterly, sinking in a challenge game last week with plenty of lineup shares from the DFS community aboard, but we will be the first ones up the gangplank to reboard this vessel in Week 16.

Honorable Mentions:

• Dak Prescott & Ceedee Lamb
• Tua Tagovailoa/Tyreek Hill
• Justin Fields
• Rachaad White (yes, again)
• Mike Evans
• Jordan Love
• Rondale Moore
• Justin Jefferson
• Robert Woods
• Alec Pierce
• Derrick Henry

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