The main NFL DFS slate features too many viable combinations to count in a lifetime, even when we eliminate several of the lower-end stacks we are left with possibilities galore at several positions. With NFL DFS picks, tips, tricks, touts, shoutouts, tweets, spreadsheets, slams, and sims coming from every direction all week, the purpose of this article is to feature a few plays for which our projections land above or below what appears to be the industry standard for the week, which will identify plays that are potentially over or undervalued by the public.

*note – despite the title of this article and what would probably be a more logical configuration, the “below” category comes first in the following content.

NFL DFS Sunday Main Slate Above/Below – Week 1

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Bo Nix – Quarterback – Denver Broncos – $5,500 DK / $6,600 FD – QB24 points/QB24 value DraftKings; QB26/QB26 FanDuel

The Broncos used the 12th pick in the draft on Oregon’s Bo Nix. The 24-year-0ld threw for 45 touchdowns and 4,508 yards on 470 attempts in his fifth college season at age 23 last year, he will step in as a Day-1 NFL starter on a team with significant holes on offense. Nix ranks as QB24/24 on DraftKings and QB26/26 on FanDuel, he is at the bottom of the board on both sites. Nix will be facing a pass defense that held opposing offenses to 21 passing touchdowns while allowing 6.8 yards per attempt for 233 yards per game to sit in the middle of the pack last season. The quarterback has a variety of up-and-down options in both the running game and the receiving corps, with Courtland Sutton operating as his top threat. Sutton scored 10 touchdowns last year and carries some upside, but the Broncos are limited for quality up and down the lineup in what should be another long season behind a line that rates as competent but not exceptional. Nix is a low-end option who we have as a lower-end selection this week, even if we are wrong he is unlikely to deliver a slate-changing performance.

Anthony Richardson – Quarterback – Indianapolis Colts  – $6,300 DK /$8,300 FD – QB8 points/QB12 value DraftKings; QB10/QB16 FanDuel

Among the selections for the “under” category in this article, Richardson may represent the biggest threat to break for a big game. The second-year man played just four games last season and still managed to both pass and rush for more touchdowns than Daniel Jones was able to throw in six outings. Richardson threw three touchdown passes with one interception on 21 attempts per game in his four tries. He averaged 6.9 yards per pass attempt and was flinging the ball downfield at 8.0 intended air yards per attempt. Richardson is an extremely viable option as a rusher for his position, in the limited action last season he ran for four touchdowns and 136 yards on 6.3 rush attempts per game, gaining 5.40 yards per rush attempt. Richardson has a high-end skillset and should be fully back to form to star the season, if he establishes an early connection with a bevy of playable skill options, he could find quality despite our projections landing him below the industry average marks for today’s slate.

Daniel Jones – Quarterback – New York Giants – $5,400 DK /$6,800  FD – QB19 points/QB15 value DraftKings; QB21/QB17 FanDuel

Daniel Jones is not a good quarterback. Jones played six games last season, he threw six interceptions and just two touchdown passes while averaging 151.5 yards per game and just 5.7 yards per pass attempt. The quarterback is not a skilled downfield thrower, he had a 6.8-yard intended air yards per attempt mark last season, completing 5.7 yards per attempt and just 3.4 air yards per attempt. Jones’ skillset is running with the football, not throwing it, he rushed for 206 yards on 6.7 attempts per game and 5.2 yards per attempt, scoring once. In 16 games in 2022, Jones rushed for 708 yards and seven touchdowns on 120 attempts, a solid 5.9 yard-per-carry average but he threw for just 3,205 yards on 472 pass attempts, throwing only 15 touchdowns with five interceptions. The lack of turnovers were seen as an improvement and Jones was rewarded where there was nothing to reward. The quarterback peaked with 24 touchdown passes in 13 games in his rookie season in a different universe in an impossibly long ago 2019. Jones threw for 3,027 yards with 12 interceptions that season while rushing for just 279 yards and two scores. The quarterback is a good-not-great rusher, his 2022 season will almost certainly be an outlier when his career statistics are tallied. Jones remains very unreliable, he can bounce to the occasionally interesting fantasy score and he has a premium receiver in Malik Nabers for the first time in several seasons, though it seems unlikely to help behind a hilariously unimproved offensive line that rates as the worst in the sport and would likely rate poorly in some high school divisions around the country.

Lingering Lows

• Michael Pittman Jr.
• Bijan Robinson
• Devin Singletary
• Najee Harris
• Chuba Hubbard
• Bryce Young
• Darnell Mooney
• Gus Edwards
• David Montgomery
• Jerome Ford
• Gardner Minshew
• Justin Herbert

Don’t miss our full breakdown in the Groups/Stacks article, complete with full game notes & stack rankings for every team

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Baker Mayfield – Quarterback – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,600 DK / $7,200 FD – QB3 points/QB1 value DraftKings; QB3/QB1 FanDuel

Our standout option of the week is Baker Mayfield, who projects well around the industry but slightly ahead of even that aggressive pace in our model. Mayfield benefits from facing an extremely targetable Washington pass defense with several excellent weapons on his side in the air. Mayfield threw 28 touchdown passes to just 10 interceptions last season while accruing 4,044 yards, cracking the 4,000 mark for the first time in his career. The quarterback gained 7.1 yards per pass attempt and added a single score on the ground, he is not much of a rusher but he has a chance to excel as a passer in Week 1. Mayfield has the benefit of working with the fantastic Mike Evans and a strong WR2 with Chris Godwin and he has an excellent short-yardage threat and safety valve in the backfield with Rachaad White. The Buccaneers are not pulling in a gigantic total in what should be a better-looking spot on paper than it seems, this could be a strong starting point for our NFL DFS season and it looks like a spot worthy of chasing at mid-level popularity.

Trevor Lawrence – Quarterback – Jacksonville Jaguars  – $6,200 DK /$7,400 FD – QB4 points/QB2 value DraftKings; QB4/QB2 FanDuel

On one half of what should be a high-paced, high-scoring, shootout of a potential NFL DFS scoring bonanza, Trevor Lawrence will be leading a highly-skilled Jaguars attack that ranks well on the stacks board on both sites. Lawrence grades out as one of the top quarterback options of the week across the board, we have him slightly ahead of the industry average and would push additional shares beyond currently projected ownership levels. This is backed up in returns from early simulation runs for both sites with our partners at acemind.io. Lawrence threw for more than 4,000 yards for the second consecutive season in his third year in the league, posting 4,016 yards and 21 touchdowns in 16 games on 564 pass attempts. The quarterback was higher-end in 2022 with 4,113 yards and 25 touchdowns to eight interceptions, but he ran the ball slightly more in 2023 and has every chance to continue his growth trajectory this season. Lawrence is a high-end quarterback with excellent weapons across the board, he stands a strong chance to overperform Week 1 expectations for NFL DFS scoring against a defense that sat near the bottom of the league in touchdowns allowed through the air last year. Lawrence rated well for highly-accurate throws and was in the top-half of the league in fantasy scoring at the position last season, he is the type of play on which we want to be a week early when he is less popular rather than a week late when everyone piles onto previous production.

Stefon Diggs – Wide Receiver – Houston Texans – $6,700 DK / $6,800 FD – WR5 points/WR5 value DraftKings; WR7/WR3 FanDuel

Stefon Diggs had a tough time down the stretch in 2023. From Week 10-18 the wideout did not post a game over 87 receiving yards (Week 18) and he only scored once, and not at all after the Week 13 bye. Diggs faded badly down the stretch and ended up pricing his way out of Buffalo but landing in a prime spot in the emergent Houston offense. Our opinion has been that the Texans got Diggs to come in and be the number one to start the season. This places him in direct competition with two young standout receivers from last year, Nico Collins and Tank Dell, both of whom put up big numbers in a mixed set of games that were hampered somewhat by injury. Diggs has the opportunity to keep the WR1 job and have a gigantic bounceback season with CJ Stroud throwing him the ball, if the dynamic young teammates can help alleviate the pressure it should only work to the veteran receiver’s advantage, though that could also play in the opposite direction some weeks. With three big mouths to feed at the position, plus a needy running back and a premium tight end, Houston is going to be spreading the ball around a lot to start the year, our money is still on Diggs’ quality to at least lead the way early in 2024. After all, even with late-season struggles the past two years, Diggs is still working off of six straight seasons over 1,000 receiving yards with at least eight touchdowns and he has not posted fewer than six touchdowns since 2016. Diggs rates extremely high for both points and value on both sites in our model, we are buyers.

Rhamondre Stevenson – Running Back – New England Patriots – $5,900 DK / $6,200 FD – RB9 points/RB4 value DraftKings; RB11/RB1 FanDuel

Just two seasons ago, Rhamondre Stevenson posted a 1,040-yard year on 210 carries with five rushing touchdowns. The running back was a multi-way star that season, adding another 421 yards on 69-89 receiving but just one receiving touchdown. The second-year back’s 1,461 scrimmage yards were hopefully not an outlier, the season before he had 606 yards on 133 carries with five touchdowns as a rookie while catching just 14 passes for 123 yards and last year’s production dipped back to those levels with only 619 yards on 156 carries with four touchdowns on the ground and 38 catches for 238 yards and no scoring in 12 games. Stevenson should be healthy to start the season, in a weak Patriots’ offense he should be the focal point for as long as he holds up and, with 20+ touches per week, there should be volume and price-based upside for NFL DFS scoring from a talented running back with direct involvement in a (albeit mediocre) passing game. Stevenson is out-projecting his numbers from other industry sites by a minor margin on both sites, he is a play to pump up while others are chasing justifiably chalky options including Alvin Kamara and others for higher salaries.

Honorable Mentions:

• Justin Fields
• Ray Davis
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Alec Pierce
• Jermaine Burton
• Curtis Samuel
• Rome Odunze
• Keon Coleman
• Amari Cooper
• Josh Allen
• Evan Engram
• Bucky Irving
• Rashid Shaheed
• Ray-Ray McCloud II

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