NFL DFS – Above/Below – Week 15 – Key Plays for Saturday

The main NFL DFS slate features too many viable combinations to count in a lifetime, even when we eliminate several of the lower-end stacks we are left with possibilities galore at several positions. With NFL DFS picks, tips, tricks, touts, shoutouts, tweets, spreadsheets, slams, and sims coming from every direction all week, the purpose of this article is to feature a few plays for which our projections land above or below what appears to be the industry standard for the week, which will identify plays that are potentially over or undervalued by the public.

*note – despite the title of this article and what would probably be a more logical configuration, the “below” category comes first in the following content.

NFL DFS Saturday Slate Above/Below – Week 15


Zack Moss – Running Back – Indianapolis Colts – $6,200/$6,600

For the third week in a row, Zack Moss finds himself in the Below section of this article. As the featured back for the Colts for the past two games Moss first posted 51 yards on 19 carries, adding six yards on two catches, then he put up a meager 28 yards on 13 carries while adding 28 more on 4-8 receiving. Moss had a few big weeks as the lead back earlier in the season and he remains very cheap across both sites on a very short slate, but we are more than a full point behind the industry average projection on the running back once again this week. It is difficult to avoid the sheer pull of the salary-based value square that Moss has provided, over the past two weeks we have been far closer to the field than initially desired, which may well be the case this week, but expectations should be well in check for the moderately talented running back in a game in which his team may take to the air. While we are below the industry average projection and wishing for better options, it is worth noting that Moss remains nearly a point ahead of the next-most highly projected running back on this small Saturday slate.

TJ Hockenson – Tight End – Minnesota Vikings – $5,800/$7,000

TJ Hockenson is indisputably one of the top tight ends in football, he projects second at the position on both sites in our model for the Saturday slate and looks like an easily played option across the industry. Hockenson’s only challenge will be playing with quarterback Nick Mullens, who will get the start ahead of Joshua Dobbs, who is relegated to the emergency QB role after ineffective play. Mullens is a career backup who has been with the team for the past few years and presumably knows the offense well, which could make him a functional piece of this slate, particularly given the talent of Hockenson and wide receiver Justin Jefferson. If Mullens is not up to the challenge, however, it will severely limit the potential for his pass catchers to make value, let alone post slate-winning tournament scores at their positions. Hockenson seems to have the bigger potential for downside than the highly-targeted Jefferson, though the latter has been injured and had to leave last week’s game after a brief return from his spell out of the lineup. With a few interesting value options at the position, including a too-cheap Pat Freiermuth, it may be good that we are coming up about a point behind the industry-average projection on the elite Vikings tight end for this three-game slate.

Lingering Lows

  • Jahmyr Gibbs
  • Najee Harris
  • Bengals & Vikings defenses
  • Kalif Raymond
  • Tyler Boyd


Don’t miss our full breakdown in the Groups/Stacks article, complete with notes for every team


Ja’Marr Chase – Wide Receiver – Chicago Bears – $6,800/$7,900 – QB1 points/QB2 value DraftKings; QB1/QB1 FanDuel

Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is a superstar at the position. The elite receiver has had an up-and-down season, largely based on quarterback play, and he has dealt with an ankle injury over the past week, but he holds no injury designation coming into Saturday’s contest and he will be the clear first-read option all day for quarterback Jake Browning. Chase played 49 snaps last week, running 39 routes and drawing four targets, of which he caught three for just 29 yards in a major letdown of a performance. The week before, also with Browning, Chase played 69 snaps and caught 11 of 12 passes for 149 yards and a touchdown. Overall, Chase has posted 259 yards and a touchdown on 18-22 in his three games with Browning, he had 81 yards on four catches in their first outing in Week 12. Chase has seven touchdowns and 1,092 yards on 89 catches with 8.5 yards per target on the season, he was held in check in three of the first four weeks of the year while playing with an injured Joe Burrow, and he will have to help Browning to relevance again this week, but he has one of the higher overall ceilings for fantasy scoring on the entire slate. We land about a point ahead of the industry average projection for Ja’Marr Chase this week.

Jerry Jeudy- Wide Receiver – Denver Broncos – $4,700/$5,600 & Jameson Williams – Wide Receiver – Detroit Lions – $3,400/$5,100

While both of their teams sport several higher-end options, inexpensive Jerry Jeudy and Jameson Williams draw the eye for DFS purposes across both sites this week. The Broncos at Lions game has the highest overall total on the slate by a fair margin, checking in at 48 with the other two games at 40.5 and 42. With the idea of premium scoring in a competitive back-and-forth game between the only two true NFL quarterbacks on the three-game slate, there should be plenty of focus on the evening contest. Getting to differentiated options from a strong spot is a great pivot to make in tournaments, saving on both salary and ownership while maintaining a realistic expectation of opportunity and scoring, which both of these options provide. The quarterbacks from both of these teams could have been featured in this space as well (both land in the honorable mentions section that follows), they are highly rated options who both land ahead of the industry average in our model for the Saturday slate. With the old thought of “they have to be throwing to someone to support those projections,” there is plenty of value down the depth chart for the passing game on both sides. Jerry Jeudy has not been the featured receiver for the Broncos this season, losing that role to Courtland Sutton, who also looks very good on this slate at higher cost and popularity. Jeudy has drawn his fair share of targets through the season, he had six last week but caught just two of them for 16 yards. The week before he hauled in three of four for 51 yards, his downfield ability is generally intact but the touchdown scoring has been abysmal this season. Jeudy has found the end zone just once in the team’s 13 games while failing to crack 80 yards in any game other than Week 3. Through it all, Jeudy has consistently drawn 5-7 targets, though his volume dipped to three or four in Weeks 10-13, other than a seven-target outing in Week 11. The receiver has supportable volume and still has a 12.1-yard average depth of target that can provide big-play scoring in a flash on a very small slate. On the other side, Jameson Williams offers a similar list of skills and stats. The young receiver missed the first four weeks of the season and has drawn limited opportunities since returning. Williams’ season-high for targets came in Week 7, when he drew six looks and caught precisely none of them, he has seen no more than three targets in any game since. Williams still does get the ball thrown in his direction, which is primarily down the field, at least a few times a game, he has an elite 17.4-yard average depth of target this season. Williams will no doubt be far less popular than his highly appealing teammates, while the touchdown potential is low it is not absent, Williams just sits behind several options at his position as well as the running back and tight end spots, but he is a very good tournament dart throw on the short slate and he is one of just a few receivers who can turn one target into a huge play of 50+ yards and a touchdown.

Honorable Mentions:

  • Russell Wilson
  • Jarred Goff
  • Diontae Johnson
  • David Montgomery
  • Tanner Hudson
  • KJ Osborn
  • Alec Pierce


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