The Sunday afternoon Main Slates get underway at 1:05 ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with 10 games all starting within an hour of lock. The Sunday spring slate should be quite a ride, with several strong spots for power and a solid mix of pitching available.
Main Slate Power Index – 4/10/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.
The premiere spot for power on today’s slate of MLB DFS action lands not in Coors Field but in Anaheim, where Patrick Corbin will lead the Nationals in a contest against the Angels. Corbin has been a target in this space for some time, the left-handed veteran is a shadow of the talented pitcher that came to Washington D.C. several years ago. The lefty has made two starts this season and he has yielded 10 runs, eight earned, on 17 hits in nine innings. Corbin has allowed two home runs and struck out only six of the 46 hitters he has faced in the tiny sample in 2023. The southpaw struck out just 18% of opposing hitters in 152.2 innings with a 3.79% home run rate and a massive 44.6% hard-hit rate allowed. Corbin yielded an 11% barrel rate last year and a 9.2% mark the year before when he had a 4.93% home run rate allowed. There is plenty of premium contact available today for a team featuring two of the game’s very best hitters and a litany of quality bats with home run pop. Three of the Angels hitters rank above the “magic number” of 10 in our home run model, with Mike Trout leading the way at a 15.81 mark. He is joined by left-handed superstar Shohei Ohtani, who checks in at a 13.99. The duo costs $12,300 on DraftKings and $7,700 on the blue site, putting them out of reach in combination with a pair of premium pitchers. Fortunately, there are enough value plays on the board to make it work, including within the Angels’ own lineup. The third player over a 10 is Hunter Renfroe, who checks in for just $4,700 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel, which is far too cheap for a player who hit 29 home runs last year and 31 the year before. Brandon Drury and Anthony Rendon join Taylor Ward as strong right-handed power bats who drop into the model between 8 and 10, giving the Angels a run of six hitters at or around a terrific home run chance. The lineup trails off with Luis Rengifo, Gio Urshela, and Logan O’Hoppe, but the latter checks in as a $3,500 catcher with a touch of power where backstops are necessary.
The Royals are drawing a fairly high power mark in what is overall a difficult matchup against left-hander Andrew Heaney. The veteran is a premium strikeout artist and a solid starter, in 14 outings and 72.2 innings, Heaney struck out 35.5% of hitters while pitching to a 2.83 xFIP last season. His lone hiccup as a starter comes in the form of home runs allowed. Last year he posted a 4.52% home run rate on a monster 47.7% hard-hit mark and an 11% barrel rate, the season before was worse for power with a 5.20% home run rate but lower hard-hit and barrel marks. Heaney is somewhat difficult to stack against however, his punchouts can poke holes in a lineup, even if a correlated home run is hit it may not be enough to deliver for a full four or five-man stack. The approach in this case may be to exploit the home run potential in the Royals lineup via either mini stacks or by grabbing individual hitters as one-offs. In this capacity, the Royals can function quite well on this MLB DFS slate. The team features leadoff man Bobby Witt Jr. who hit 20 home runs as a rookie while posting a .174 ISO and a 38.6% hard-hit rate. Witt is one of the team’s better correlation pieces, if stacking is the approach he should not be skipped. Edward Olivares costs just $3,300 on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel, he hit four home runs in 174 plate appearances last season and five in 111 tries the year before, the young outfielder is unlikely to be popular, if he hits in the projected two spot in the lineup he can provide value. The true power in the Royals lineup comes through the middle, with M.J. Melendez, Sal Perez, Franmil Reyes, and Vinnie Pasquantino, the last of whom is the best overall hitter in the group. Melendez, Perez, and Reyes take a more all-or-nothing approach. Reyes may go under-appreciated by MLB DFS gamers, he costs just $3,000/$2,400 and is coming off a season in which he hit only 14 home runs, but in 2021 he hit 30 long balls in 66 plate appearances. The bottom of the lineup sees Hunter Dozier as the best bet for a home run at a 6.33 in our model, but the top six hitters are the clear focus, and selecting a small group or individual against Heaney is the suggested approach.
