An eight-game Sunday afternoon sprint of a Main Slate gets rolling at 1:35 ET on both sites, with a compelling list of overall options. The slate includes both quality pitching selections and several spots that look ripe for home run upside and power that will generate MLB DFS points. A few of the teams pushing toward the top of the board are question marks, however, so it is important to remember the context when evaluating these choices. As good as the Rays have been and as much as they are drawing enough individual home run upside to reach fifth on the board below, they are still facing Gerrit Cole today, which is not an easy proposition for run creation on the whole.
Main Slate Power Index – 5/7/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.
Today’s game between the Athletics and Royals is reading out as another opportunity to find offense among some of the dregs of MLB, with significantly better hitting conditions available than in any other game. Temperatures will be around 90 degrees once again this afternoon and the wind is blowing steadily out at up to 15mph which will help power. The pitching matchup is the very interesting part of the slate-leading home run upside the Royals are pulling in against filthy young righty Mason Miller, who is yet to allow a longball in three starts. Miller was among the parade of top-end young starters who were promoted in the season’s first month, he is a fireballer with a fastball that can touch 103-105 and a devastating slider with a cutter that is more of a work in progress. The righty struck out five Cubs in his debut, allowing two runs on four hits while walking just one in 4.1 innings. He has struck out six in each of his last two starts, walking one Angels hitter but allowing four runs on five hits in just 4.0 innings in his second start and then posting a solid seven-inning performance over which he blanked the Mariners and allowed no hits but did walk four. The young ace could post another start along those lines, or potentially an even better one, given the free-swinging nature of these Royals; Miller projects as one of our top pitchers on the day as well, but the conditions and the opposing lineup play well for home run upside and the potential for a rough outing for the rookie as well, making this a firm both-sides situation for us. The Royals projected lineup opens with three hitters who have six home runs each so far this season. Bobby Witt Jr. is slashing just .234/.276/.445 with a 92 WRC+ over his first 145 plate appearances, but he has six home runs and a .212 ISO to support the 11.23 he is pulling in our home run model this morning. Vinnie Pasquantino lands at 11.36, second overall on the team, he has been the best bat the Royals have this year, slashing .282/.375/.516 with six homers, a .234 ISO, and a 140 WRC+. Pasquantino has barreled the ball at a 7.3% clip with an excellent 49.5% hard-hit rate this year and he costs just $4,000/$3,300 at first base. Sal Perez has six home runs and a .208 ISO with a 118 WRC+, the excellent catcher’s triple-slash is up to .275/.328/.483 in his 131 opportunities and he has a 48% hard-hit rate while striking out just 17.6% of the time. Witt, Pasquantino, and Perez have not been as easy to sit down with the strikeout as some of their teammates so far this season, though Pasquantino is the only one who is truly difficult to strike out. MJ Melendez has a 10.61 as the fourth of four Royals over the magic number for home runs in our model. Melendez has smashed the ball when he has made contact this year, the lefty has a 15.5% barrel rate and a 57.7% mark for hard hits so far this season, though that has translated to just three home runs and a .198/.280/.360 triple-slash with a .162 ISO, which has helped reduce the player to just a $4,000/$3,000 salary at catcher or in the outfield on both sites. Edward Olivares has had a serviceable 107 plate appearances this year, but he is slightly below average at 98 WRC+ with two home runs and three stolen bases on the board. Olivares has a 7.56 in our home run model, putting him behind Nick Pratto, who slots in sixth in the lineup and has first base and outfield eligibility on both sites. Pratto has been a focus for us in discussing the Royals over the past week or so, the former first-round pick has made 39 plate appearances this year and hit his first home run the other night. Pratto is slashing .343/.410/.457 with a .114 ISO and 144 WRC+ in the tiny sample in 2023, he is a capable hitter with a decent bat for power for just $2,500/$2,800 and he will not be the most popular Royals option in stacks. Michael Massey also hits from the left side and has a reasonably good stick, he hit 21 home runs in high-A in 2021 and a combined 20 between AA, AAA, and the Show last year (nine in 248 plate appearances at AA, seven in 143 in AAA, and four in 194 in MLB). Massey, like Pratto, will not be the most popular bat in this stack, he costs just $2,100 as a second baseman on both sites. Maikel Garcia is a decently well-regarded organizational prospect but he is more of a hit tool and speed player than he is a power hitter. Garcia maxed out at the 11 home runs he hit across AA and AAA last season in his minor league career. It is safe to say that Jackie Bradley Jr. is not in the league for his bat at this point in his long career. We will definitely be rostering shares of both Mason Miller and Royals bats/stacks on this slate, both sides have clear appeal in this interesting matchup. As a side note, it seems that the weather is going to be fine when it comes to rain, despite what certain fantasy sites might have you believe this morning with their color-coding systems.
The hard-hitting Blue Jays lineup is facing a competent but not great right-handed flyball pitcher who is pushing their power averages up toward the top of the board today. The team is drawing only two marks over 10 in our model, but several hitters are between 7.5 and 8.75, making this more of a mid-range power opportunity with peaks, but also suggesting the likelihood of run creation and sequencing for the talented Blue Jays. Roansy Contreras is not a complete pushover on the mound, but he has not been elite in his young career either. Contreras made 18 starts and threw 95 innings in 2022, posting a 3.79 ERA with a 4.48 xFIP under the surface. He had a 21.1% strikeout rate while walking 9.6% and allowing too much premium contact with an 11% barrel rate and 90.1 mph of average exit velocity. Contreras gave up a 45.9% hard-hit rate with a 17.7-degree average launch angle allowed last year, leading to a 3.19% home run rate. It is important to remember that the average launch angle numbers include pop-outs and high flyballs that go nowhere, so pitchers are not necessarily bad on that virtue alone, but a clear combination of launch angle and well-struck balls certainly leads to home runs, he allowed 13 last season but had an expected number of 15.2, this season he has given up just one with a 2.6 expected mark. The righty has kept hard hits to just 36.5% so far however, a marked improvement from last year’s numbers, and he has cut barrels essentially in half at 6.3%, though he is still allowing a 90.2 mph average exit velocity that suggests there will be loud mistakes made along the way. Overall, Contreras has been better on the surface once again, he has a 4.09 ERA but a 5.15 xFIP over his six starts and 33 innings in 2023, the 0.71% home run rate has been deceptive as well. The Blue Jays are a team that can capitalize on flyball mistakes in style, they have hit a fair handful of home runs already and that is without some of their best bats getting engaged in the season yet. George Springer is one of those slow-starting bats, he is slashing just .211/.276/.308 with a .098 ISO and four home runs while creating runs 35% worse than average from the leadoff spot, which is not a great recipe for team success. Springer is a star, however, he is priced down at $5,300/$2,800, the cost on the blue site is far too cheap regardless of any current-form struggles. Springer hit 25 home runs last year and 22 the season before and he is a threat on the basepaths as well. Bo Bichette has seven home runs this season and an 8.51 in our home run model, he lands fifth on the team overall, with Springer checking in second at 10.24. Bichette has a .201 ISO and a 150 WRC+ and has been outstanding this year with just a 15.6% strikeout rate while slashing .326/.370/.528 with a 45.8% hard-hit rate over 154 plate appearances. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the team with a 12.35 in the home run model, he has seven on the season and is slashing .318/.389/.530 with a 156 WRC+. The exceptional first baseman costs $6,200/$4,100 and is easily worth the investment on this slate. Matt Chapman has been stuck at five home runs for a bit, but he is still pulling in a 190 WRC+ while having a terrific overall start to his year. The star third baseman has always hit everything extraordinarily hard, this year is no exception with his 30.3% barrel rate and 67.4% hard-hit mark in a growing sample of 140 plate appearances. Chapman has a .262 ISO and is slashing .352/.436/.615, he is a strong correlation option in multiple ways and has an 8.63 in our home run model today. Daulton Varsho still has an 8.65 in the model, despite just four home runs and a .149 ISO so far this year. Varsho has scuffled with just a 6.5% barrel rate and 34.8% hard hits, both down from last season’s 10.2% and 35.3%, though the lack of barrels is the greater concern. Ultimately, Varsho should be fine to approach last season’s productivity in the long term, and he comes cheap at $4,600/$3,000 in the heart of this lineup. Whit Merrifield is projected to hit sixth with Brandon Belt following him, Merrifield is the better on-base, speed, and correlated scoring play and Belt is the better home run option. The former is carrying a 3.71 in today’s home run model, the latter a 7.15, to illustrate the difference. Merrifield is slashing .286/.339/.378 with a 101 WRC+ and seven stolen bases but he is yet to hit a home run, he had 11 in 550 opportunities last year and 10 in 720 the season before. Belt has just one home run and a far less robust triple-slash, he has been 29% worse than average for run creation so far this year but there is still the lingering memory of the power hitter who blasted 29 homers in just 381 plate appearances in 2021 and reliably posted mid-teens totals throughout the 2010s. Danny Jansen slots in at catcher for just $2,500/$2,700, he has three home runs with a .159 ISO this year and hit 15 with a .256 ISO in 248 tries last year, Jansen is a playable catcher who is not likely to be highly owned for his cost. Kevin Keiermaier is here for defense primarily, but he is slashing .278/.337/.400 with one home run and a pair of stolen bases in 99 plate appearances, which is better than nothing.
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