Tonight’s giant 11-game MLB DFS main slate starts at a traditional 7:05 ET start time. The slate is loaded seemingly from top to bottom with quality pitching options, which has a highly suppressive effect on the overall home run upside numbers for individuals around the league. Only the top-6 from the Cardinals and Reds crack even the 8.0 mark as a collective in our Power Index today. Neither of those teams is in an ideal situation, with St. Louis facing Dustin May, and the Reds playing their game in the cavernous Coliseum in Oakland. The slate will have playable spots throughout, and there is the luxury of a Coors Field game from which we can expect offensive output, but this looks like a slate that is going to be won and lost on the mound rather than predictable chalky fireworks at the plate. The field will certainly flock to the Coors game in this scenario, the visiting Diamondbacks seem likely to be very popular on this slate, so planting flags around other high-quality teams near the top of the board, even in mid-range to difficult matchups, is a good way to spread out shares of hitters.
Main Slate Power Index – 4/28/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.
St. Louis’ placement at the top of the board has far more to do with the team’s above-average quality from top to bottom in their projected lineup than it does the quality of their matchup against the talented Dustin May. The Dodgers’ right-hander has seen mixed results over his first five starts of the season, over which he has thrown 29.1 innings with a 3.07 ERA. The surface results for runs are fine, but under the waves is an uglier 4.89 xFIP with just a 16.7% strikeout rate, which does not jibe with the version of this pitcher we have seen in the past. May had a 22.8% strikeout rate in 30 innings last year and a 37.6% rate over 23 innings in five starts in 2021. The righty has gone through a long run of absences and may be pitching in an overall diminished form, which the pitcher seemed to cop to in a recent interview. May has said he has not been executing his pitches in quite the right way on the mound, which has led to his swinging-strike rate being nearly halved year-over-year. In a similar 30-inning sample from last year, May had a 12.9% swinging-strike rate, the season before it was 14.1% in 23 innings. This year that number has plummeted to 6.8% with a 23.4% CSW that is down more than five points from last year and more than 10 from 2021. This version of May is yielding too much contact, but hitters have not fully capitalized on it to this point, the righty has allowed just a 0.88% home run rate, which represents just one home run allowed in 29.1 innings. May did have a bit of a get-right outing in his last start, striking out six Cubs hitters but walking three in 5.1 innings, he may be coming around somewhat, but this is an interesting spot to look at the talented Cardinals lineup with the expectation that they might not be one of the most popular stacks of the night. Anyone who reads this site regularly can probably cite the Cardinals’ qualities from memory at this point, but the team is truly playable from top to bottom in almost any of its configurations. Tonight’s projected lineup opens with Lars Nootbaar, a good young left-handed hitter with power. Nootbaar has two home runs in 53 plate appearances, slashing .244/.415/.415 with a .171 ISO and a 133 WRC+ over the first 53 plate appearances of his season, he missed time out of the gate after an injury late in Spring Training but has so far delivered on the promise of his strong contact abilities. Nootbaar has a 10.7% barrel rate to this point, over a sample of 347 plate appearances last year he was at a 12.1% barrel rate with a 46% hard-hit percentage that amounted to 14 home runs and a .221 ISO. Nootbaar is inexpensive at $4,300/$3,500, he should be rostered in Cardinals stacks fairly aggressively from the top of the lineup and he is playable in any position in the batting order. Paul Goldschmidt had one big night already this week and he is leading the team with a 10.21 in the home run model tonight. Goldschmidt is now slashing .302/.407/.510 with a .208 ISO while creating runs 57% better than average in his 113 plate appearances. The first baseman has hit four home runs with two stolen bases, he hit 35 homers and had seven steals last year, and his contact profile has been as sturdy as ever to this point in 2023. Second baseman Nolan Gorman has a fantastic 17.5% barrel rate, the highest on a team full of high marks in the category, and a 54.4% hard-hit rate over his 95 plate appearances this season. He has hit six home runs and is slashing .289/.368/.566 with a .277 ISO while creating runs 53% better than average. The young power hitter mashed 14 home runs with a .194 ISO after his call up last season, he is a fully-formed masher of baseballs who is far too cheap at $4,200/$3,500. Nolan Arenado has been doing this for a long time, there are still no concerns about a somewhat slow start that has the third baseman at just .257/.303/.347 with a .089 ISO and an 80 WRC+. Arenado has barreled just 3.8% of his batted ball events and he has only a 34.6% hard-hit rate so far this season, when he gets in gear this offense will ascend to an even higher level. Arenado is still expensive on DraftKings at $5,300, the site has correctly kept him at a fairly high price on the back of his long track record of excellence, just last year he hit 30 home runs and created runs 51% better than average with a .241 ISO, for example. On FanDuel, one could add Arenado to their lineup for $3,000 at third base, which is the same salary they are asking for Elehuris Montero, who is in AAA, and $300 less than Josh Jung, who is injured. Arenado is a bargain on the FanDuel slate, he should be included in Cardinals stacks and is a viable one-off at the discount. Catcher Willson Contreras has a 12.7% barrel rate and a 50.8% hard-hit, improving on the 10.9% and 47.9% that he posted last year in early returns. The backstop is an established veteran bat who is one of the best hitters in the league at his position, he is always in play for shares where catchers are necessary, and he is one of the few who can be fully trusted for regular use as if he was a position player in this lineup on FanDuel. Contreras has created runs 26% better than average over his 92 plate appearances this year with a pair of home runs and a .370 on-base percentage that helps him correlate with others in stacks. Alec Burleson has a 6.50 in the home run model, trailing Paul DeJong at 6.92 for the lead in the bottom half of the Cardinals lineup tonight. Burleson hits from the left side and had three home runs on the board with a .208 ISO in his 81 opportunities this year, DeJong has two already in just 17 plate appearances since rejoining the team a week ago. The shortstop is very cheap at $2,200/$2,900, in his last fully relevant action, DeJong hit 19 home runs in 402 plate appearances in 2021, but that was while slashing .197/284/.390 with an 86 WRC+, so buyer beware. Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman round out the projected lineup with quality, Edman has four home runs on the board in 91 plate appearances, adding three stolen bases, and he is getting on at a .367 clip so far this year, which makes him a very playable wraparound piece for MLB DFS on most nights. Carlson has made 52 plate appearances and not hit for much power, he hit 18 home runs across 619 plate appearances in 2021 and another eight in 488 opportunities last year, but he is just a mix-and-match piece on most nights.
The Pirates are pulling interesting power projections on this slate. The team is in Washington to face righty Chad Kuhl, who has a propensity for giving up the long ball, but this game is also carrying a fairly heavy risk of rain, which puts everything in doubt. In a quick look at a probable Pirates PPD, the team is benefitting from Kuhl’s aggressively bad 50.8% hard-hit rate and 92.1 mph of average exit velocity allowed on a 15.3% barrel rate and 20.9-degree average launch angle in 18.1 innings this year, as well as the 4.05% home run rate and 44.6% hard-hit rate he allowed with 90.5 mph of average exit velocity and a 9.7% barrel rate he gave up in 137 last year (it goes on like this). This is a highly targetable pitcher, if the game somehow plays clean, Pirates bats are on the board, with options like the obvious Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen, who have a combined 10 home runs and are creating runs 31% and 38% better than average with a .247 and .235 ISO respectively. Carlos Santana and Jack Swuinski have good power bats in the fourth and fifth spots in the lineup, while Ke’Bryan Hayes is more of a correlated scoring piece, who has struggled to do that, from atop the lineup. Santana has an 8.15 in our home run model, landing him third on the team behind Reynolds at 9.14 and the leader, Suwinski who is at 9.44. Pirate Jack has hit five home runs and stolen four bases this season, slashing .276/.397/.603 with a .328 ISO and a 165 WRC+ over his 73 opportunities so far, barreling the ball in 22.5% of his batted-ball events with a 50% hard-hit rate. Suwinski is a major bargain if this game plays, he costs just $3,200/$3,400. Connor Joe is another cheap play at $3,900/$3,200 with first base and outfield eligibility. Joe is slashing .304/.392/.580 with a .275 ISO and three home runs. Rodolfo Castro has created runs 35% better than average with three home runs in his 81 opportunities, Ji-Hwan Bae has two home runs but an 88 WRC+ and just a .113 ISO, and Austin Hedges rounds out the projected lineup. Too bad this one probably won’t play, but keep an eye on the weather just in case.
The Reds’ lineup is unreliable and lousy, and they are in a gigantic ballpark in Oakland tonight, which is not ideal for hitting home runs. The team has three hitters in the projected starting lineup who have two home runs each, another three of them have hit one, and the other three have none. A go-to spot for power this is not. The team is flashing a few 8 and 9 marks in the home run model in their matchup against Drew Rucinski who the hardcore among us will remember from our KBO DFS days. Rucinski has been pitching for the NC Dinos in South Korea for the past few seasons, he is quite good in KBO terms, but whether that can translate to the Show for a now 34-year-old righty is a major question. Rucinski has not pitched in the Majors since 2018, when he saw 35.1 innings at age 29, which was his largest sample beyond a few spot starts in earlier years. Overall, Rucinski has a 4.80 xFIP and a 5.33 ERA in 54 Major League innings, and he has struck out just 17.9% of opposing hitters while walking 9.3%. He has thrown over 170 innings in each of the last four seasons as one of the Dinos’ top pitchers, posting a mid-threes xFIP and low-threes ERA with strikeout rates in the low 20% range, and he has been good at limiting power, but the KBO is somewhere between AA and AAA baseball overall, even a team like the Reds should be able to get to this starter. The highly-rated Cincinnati hitters in our home run model are Jonathan India who leads off and has one home run with a .124 ISO and a 118 WRC+ in 109 plate appearances, at 8.13; TJ Friedl, who is one of the back-to-back hitters with two homers on the board and sits at 8.37; and Spencer Steer at 9.53, the second-highest rating on the team. Steer has a .156 ISO, Friedl is at .143, and they both have been above average for run creation in the small sample. Tyler Stephenson is a cheap catcher who has no home runs but a respectable triple slash over 97 plate appearances while creating runs exactly at league average. He hit six home runs in 183 tries last year and 10 in 402 the year before, so expectations should be properly tempered. Jake Fraley leads the team at a 9.78 in the home run model, he has just one this season but hit 12 in 247 opportunities in 2022, though nothing about his contact profile the last few years has said “power hitter.” Henry Ramos, Kevin Newman, Nick Senzel, and Curt Casali round out the questionable lineup, Ramos leads that group with a 6.86 in the home run model, he has a .182 ISO with a 155 WRC+ but no home runs since his promotion 12 plate appearances ago, but this is not a hot flashy rookie prospect, Ramos is another former KBO roster member, he is 31 and has only shown moderate ability in his minor league and international career.
