The Sunday main slate features 10 games starting at 1:35 ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The slate is absolutely loaded when it comes to pitching options, which is having an impact on the overall power upside available leaguewide. The names at the top of the board are a mixed bag of teams that carry generally high star-based ratings and those facing bad starting pitching. Both Vince Velasquez and Patrick Corbin are favorite targets in this space.
Main Slate Power Index – 4/23/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.
The Reds vs Pirates game on Sunday is filled with MLB DFS options that no one really wants to have to roster. The Reds are leading the top-6 power index and rank third for the full lineup, largely on the back of an excellent matchup against right-handed starter Vince Velasquez, who has been decidedly bad for some time now. The righty has made four starts and covered 19.1 innings this season, pitching to a 5.63 xFIP with a 19.3% strikeout rate and an 11.4% walk rate. Velasquez is targetable for power, he has a 3.41% home run rate in the small sample, though his contact profile has been somewhat improved in the season’s first few weeks. Last year the starter allowed a 43.5% hard-hit rate with a 13% barrel rate over 75.1 innings, this year he has given up just a 34.4% hard-hit rate with a still-bad 9.8% barrel rate allowed. Not that it has mattered much in the home runs allowed department. Of course, Cincinnati is not a lineup filled with clones of Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso. The leading current-year home run hitter for the Reds is Jason Vosler, who has three so far with a .220 ISO but just a 50 WRC+. Vosler is projected to hit seventh in the lineup and he is carrying a 9.04 in our home run model that sits third on the team. Leadoff man Jonathan India has one home run and just a .143 ISO on the season, but he has produced spotty power at times. India is carrying an 8.09 atop the projected lineup, slightly ahead of the 8.32 mark in the home run model that projected two-hitter TJ Friedl has. Friedl is cheap at $4,200/$2,900, he has a pair of home runs and is slashing .300/.364/.471 with a .171 ISO and a 121 WRC+. Righty third baseman Spencer Steer also has a pair of home runs in his 67 plate appearances, posting a .179 ISO with a 6.5% barrel rate and 37% hard-hit rate. Steer is inexpensive but the quality is limited, even with the 9.48 that he sports in our home run model to land second-best on this team. Jake Fraley leads the way for the Reds in the home run model, he is the only Reds hitter over the “magic number” at 10.08. Tyler Stephenson is a playable catcher at $4,600/$2,700, but he has yet to hit a home run in 2023. The backstop managed six long balls in 183 opportunities in 2022. Wil Myers has scuffled to just .214/.286/.329 to start the season and he has only a pair of home runs that both came in the same game, outside of that Myers has not provided much but a game against Velasquez is a solid get-right situation. Nick Senzel and Jose Barrero round out the projected lineup.
