Tonight’s seven-game Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel features an interesting Power Index with fairly low power marks across the league. This is a day on which it is important to remember that this tool is telling us an average for the home run potential for each individual in a lineup, and not an overall “best stacks of the day” guide. This warning is mentioned here again because the Oakland Athletics are in the top spot for the potential to hit one, and it probably only will be one, home run in their game against Andrew Heaney. The Athletics are not a good team and Heaney is a very good pitcher who just tends to give up a few home runs here and there. This data should not be taken as a recommendation to stack the A’s against Heaney; they could perhaps be an underappreciated source of one-offs, but even that upside is capped by their general lack of talent. The Rangers, Angels, Padres, Astros, Mariners… basically every other team on the slate is a better option for stacking.
Main Slate Power Index – 4/22/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.
The typically power-packed Atlanta Braves are relegated to the bottom of the board today in a matchup against ultra-talented Framber Valdez, the Houston ace specializing in generating worm-burners and grinding home run hitters into dust. Valdez forces hitters to drive the ball into the ground again and again, it is incredibly difficult to hit a home run against this pitcher. In 2021, Valdez allowed just a 2.10% home run rate on a -5.5-degree average launch angle, in 2022 it was a 1.33% home run rate on a -3.6-degree angle, and so far this season Valdez has a 0.98% home run rate allowed with a -1.6-degree average launch angle. The southpaw allows hard hits at a significant clip, but it just does not matter for power potential when everything is on the ground, so far this season Valdez has a 44.8% hard-hit rate allowed, it was 41.4% last year and 44.4% the year before. The lefty is also good for strikeouts, he posted a 23.5% rate over his 201.1 innings in 31 starts last year and he has a 24.5% rate over 25 innings in his four starts this year, pitching reliably deep into the game each time out which also bolsters his chances for a win and a quality start bonus. The Braves bats are always playable, but they come with a major asterisk today, the most likely bats are the obvious names up top when going to this team, but it is not a strong position to occupy on this slate. Even if Atlanta wins this game and Valdez does not have a great start, the odds of significant power hitting and bent scores are quite low and there are much better targets on tonight’s slate. Go-to Braves for the bold include Ronald Acuna Jr. who has three home runs and eight stolen bases atop the lineup; Matt Olson who is sitting on six home runs with a .316 ISO and a 154 WRC+ and can take any lefty deep, but may have issues elevating the ball and could get a night off; Austin Riley, who has hit four home runs and created runs 35% better than average; and Sean Murphy, an excellent catcher with a .339 ISO and a 170 WRC+ over 73 plate appearances this year. After that group are Ozzie Albies, Vaughn Grissom, and diminishing expectations. Albies is always playable when stacking Braves, he is an All-Star caliber player when going right, Grissom is an inexpensive high-end rookie, and the bottom third of the projected lineup includes Marcell Ozuna, Eli White, and Kevin Pillar.
The Rangers and Angels are both in good spots for power upside. Texas is facing Oakland righty Shintaro Fujinami who has allowed significant power and an ugly contact profile over his first three starts. The Rangers have been featured in this space several times recently, the top half of the lineup are the primary targets, with all of Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia, and Josh Jung looking like strong plays. Travis Jankowski is more of a spare part and a correlation play if he is hitting second, the same could be said for Ezequiel Duran, though the latter offers slightly more individual upside. Jonah Heim can offer sneaky power as a catcher if he is in the lineup, and things round out around Josh Smith and Leody Taveras, who are less likely power options. The more interesting squad might be the Angels, in their matchup against Zack Greinke. The right-handed veteran has made four starts and covered 22.1 innings so far this season, pitching to a 3.96 xFIP and a 4.03 ERA. Greinke has allowed a 3.23% home run rate with a 9.7% barrel rate and 89.9 mph of average exit velocity in the small sample this year, he was slightly worse at everything last year, though his home run rate was somewhat better at just 2.39%. Greinke does not have much left in the tank, the pitcher gets by on guile and experience, pitching to a significant amount of contact as evidenced by his current-year 18.3% strikeout rate. Greinke is targetable with the powerful Angels bats, and the lineup should include both of the team’s superstars this evening. Taylor Ward gets things started in the leadoff spot, he has individual upside for power and is carrying a 7.47 in the home run model today. Ward hit 23 home runs with a .192 ISO in 564 plate appearances last year, he has two on the board but has scuffled somewhat slashing just .228/.319/.329 with a .101 ISO. Ward was a roller coaster last year with his production coming in bunches, which may be the case again this season. Superstar Shohei Ohtani dominated on the mound last night and will look to mash at the plate in this one. Ohtani carries first base and outfield eligibility for $6,100 on DraftKings, he is a $3,900 outfielder on FanDuel. Ohtani has hit four home runs and has a .197 ISO with a 129 WRC+ this season, he is a great option at any price against this pitcher. Mike Trout has blasted three home runs and has a .224 ISO and a 170 WRC+ to start his season. Trout is carrying an 8.9% barrel rate with a 53.3% hard-hit percentage, he is easily worth the $5,700/$4,100 asking price. Third baseman Anthony Rendon needs to get things in gear, over 55 plate appearances he has been one of the few players on whom we have regularly focused who has not managed to come through at least to some degree. So far this year, Rendon is slashing .238/.364/.262 with just a .024 ISO and an 87 WRC+. If his walk rate was not as strong as it is at 16.4%, Rendon would look even worse so far. The third baseman has hit more fans this season than he has home runs, but there is still reason to believe that the veteran bat will come around, and he is cheap in the heart of this lineup against a bad pitcher at $4,300/$3,100. Hunter Renfroe has a .224 ISO and a 133 WRC+ with four home runs, Jake Lamb is in the projected lineup on the left side of the plate for the minimum on DraftKings and $2,200 with eligibility at first and third base on the blue site, and Brandon Drury drops in with another premium power bat that has been slow to get engaged with the 2023 season. Drury hit 28 home runs last year, he has just one in his 67 plate appearances this season and his contact profile has not been as strong as it was after he made adjustments going into last season that directly resulted in the power surge. Matt Thaiss and rookie Zach Neto round out the lineup, but the power is primarily from one through seven.
