The 12-game MLB DFS main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel looks absolutely loaded on all fronts. The slate features several excellent spots for hitting, with great lineups facing pushover pitchers, and it has a fairly substantial list of potentially playable arms on the mound at a variety of price points. This is a slate with a true mix of quality across the board, making for a dynamic spread-out board of potential value and upside plays. Getting to a wide range of lineup combinations to chase that potential and differentiate from lineups that focus exclusively on the chalk plays of the day is the recommended approach to a slate of this nature.
Main Slate Power Index – 4/21/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.
The hard-hitting Philadelphia Phillies will be at home in their hitter-friendly ballpark to face Noah Davis, a limited 25-year-old right-handed non-prospect filling a space in the Rockies rotation. Davis has made one start, throwing five clean innings against the Mariners while striking out five and walking three, his xFIP for the game was a 4.08, we can expect a lower-end performance tonight. The largest sample in Davis’ career is 133.1 innings in 26 AA starts last year, a sample over which he posted a 4.68 xFIP and a 25.9% strikeout rate with a 10.2% walk rate while allowing 26 home runs to 588 hitters, a 4.42% home run rate, in AA. The Phillies power bats are strong plays tonight and the entire team is pulling in excellent marks for home run upside, they will be able to feast on the Colorado bullpen after chasing Davis from this one, so here’s hoping that the public goes away from them somewhat after getting burnt at heavy ownership by this squad just last night. Projected leadoff man Bryson Stott is no one’s idea of a power hitter, but he is an excellent correlation piece and he has a touch of pop. Stott hit 10 home runs and stole 12 bases last year, posting a .124 ISO along the way but he was below average creating runs, this season over his first 91 plate appearances the infielder has a lone home run and a .112 ISO but he has created runs 28% better than average and is getting on base at a .374 clip. Stott is a strong infield play for a cheap price on both sites. The power begins to come into play with Trea Turner, who has his first home run on the board this year but just a .128 ISO so far. Turner is an excellent hitter who blasted 21 home runs last year and 28 the year before, he is carrying a strong rating in tonight’s home run model and should circle the bases a few times and be involved in MLB DFS scoring one way or another tonight. Kyle Schwarber’s rating in the home run model today is so high that he probably already has three home runs before leaving home to go to the game. Schwarber has massive power on the left side of the plate, this looks like a very strong spot to roster the slugger who is sporting a 15.4% barrel rate and four home runs in his first 87 plate appearances. Schwarber launched 46 homers last year and 34 the season before, he is far too cheap at $3,100 on FanDuel, which will make him explosively popular tonight. On DraftKings, the hope is that a $6,000 tag, along with the $6,100 for Turner, cuts into ownership somewhat. Nick Castellanos should not be skipped in Phillies stacks either, despite a bit of a lack of power to this point in the season. Castellanos has slashed .289/.372/.408 and created runs 14% better than average this season, he is a cheap quality alternative in the middle of the lineup who connects nicely with the teammates ahead of, and behind, him in the lineup. Brandon Marsh and JT Realmuto are strong plays on both sites, Marsh has a 13.2% barrel rate with three home runs and a whopping 196 WRC+ this season, Realmuto is the game’s best catcher at the plate. Alec Bohm has hit three home runs and is now slashing .311/.393/.473 with a .162 ISO and a 136 WRC+ over 84 plate appearances. Bohm remains too cheap and has first base and third base eligilbity on DraftKings for $4,400, he is a $3,600 third baseman on FanDuel, where Bohm and Trea Turner cost the same price, and they are both $100 less than Marsh. Things get weird early in the season. Jake Cave and Edmundo Sosa wrap the projected lineup, Cave has a home run this season and hit five in 177 tries last year, Sosa has two this season with a .281 ISO and a 153 WRC+ in a tiny 34 plate appearances sample. The infielder slashed .227/.275/.369 with two home runs and a .142 ISO last year, he had six home runs and a .118 ISO over 326 tries the year before, the early output is a blip, the quality in this lineup is from 1-7.
The game in Yankee Stadium is also looking like a potential power bonanza. The Blue Jays will be facing Domingo German, who may or may not bring a sticky hand to the mound this evening. German is under the microscope after accusations of sticky stuff usage in his most recent gem, he comes in with a wildly uncharacteristic 33.3% strikeout rate with a 2.70 xFIP and a 3.86 ERA for the season. German has allowed a 3.51% home run rate but just a 30.3% hard-hit rate this year, but his 40.6% hard-hit rate and 3.69% home run rate last year are more telling, German gives up too much premium contact and allows too many home runs unless something has dramatically changed about his game the Blue Jays are in a good spot tonight. The team’s top-6 hitters are all above the 10-mark in our home run model. George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Daulton Varsho, Matt Chapman, and Brandon Belt range from Belt’s 10.35 to Guerrero’s massive 17.25 in the model this afternoon. Catcher Danny Jansen comes close to adding a seventh bat to that list of excellent power options, he has no home runs and a .000 ISO this season but hit 15 home runs last year with a .256 ISO over 248 opportunities. At the same time, the Yankees are pulling in strong power marks of their own, even with the absence of Giancarlo Stanton. The team is facing Yusei Kikuchi, a lefty who has had issues with home runs throughout his career. Kikuchi had a 5.07% home run rate with a massive 47.1% hard-hit rate allowed for the season in 100.2 innings and 20 starts last year. The year before he was similarly bad for power, giving up a 47% hard-hit rate and a 4.05% home run rate. Kikuchi’s 14.8% barrel rate allowed last year plays right into the Yankees’ approach to hitting, their right-handed power bats should be able to take advantage of the starter and their lefties will not be out of play. Kikuchi has given up a 48.8% hard-hit rate and an 11.6% barrel rate with 92.7 mph of average exit velocity and a 7.94% home run rate in his small 15.1-inning sample to this point over three starts, the southpaw has given up at least one home run in each start, and he allowed three to the Angels in his second start of the year. This is a pitcher, and a game environment, to target for hitting upside. Only Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo land above a 10 in the home run model, with Judge carrying a 16.75 and Rizzo at 11.62, but a handful of Yankees are in play. The team has good correlated scoring and sequencing options to play along with the power bats, and most of them are at worst mid-range power hitters on their own. Rookie Anthony Vlope is slated to lead off again, he has one home runs and a .105 ISO but has stolen eight bases to pad MLB DFS scoring for now. Hitting in front of Judge would put you in play if you were in the Yankees lineup, Vlope is an option despite a moderately cool start to his career. Judge and Rizzo hit in front of Gleyber Torres who has two home runs and a 136 ISO so far this year, and DJ LeMahieu, who has a pair of home runs and a .232 ISO over his 64 plate appearances. Torres has a 9.22 in the home run model while LeMahieu lands at just 5.41, despite the latter’s output for power in the early part of this year, Torres is the better home run hitter over an extended period. Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera are in the projected lineup for New York, Peraza is a top prospect getting a little playing time against lefties while Josh Donaldson lingers on the injured list. Kyle Higashioka is the better of the Yankees’ two excellent defensive catchers when it comes to hitting, particularly for power. Higashioka’s contact profile has been featured on this site several times early this season, the backstop has a strong knack for barreling the ball and generating premium contact, he needs to do better turning that into home runs, but he has two on the board early this season to go with his 33.3% barrel rate and 60% hard-hit over 25 meaningless plate appearances. In a fair sample of 248 opportunities last year, Higashioka had a 9.8% barrel rate with a 48.1% hard-hit mark.
