An action-packed opening day leads into a very interesting five-game MLB DFS Friday night on both DraftKings and FanDuel. With limited pitching options and a wide range of compelling spots for underpriced and under-exposed run creation, this is an excellent slate on which to broaden a player pool and get creative with lineup combinations. Playing contests with a straight-line approach may yield cashing lineups on a slate like tonight’s, but tournament wins come with differentiation and risk. Playing unique angles to stacks, including using late lineup wraparound plays or stacking players lower in the batting order is one approach to differentiation, as is embracing logical risk in starting pitcher spots. There are many ways to go about creating high-upside unique lineups for tournament play on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.

MLB DFS: Game by Game Breakdown – 3/31/23

New York Mets (-108/4.08) @ Miami Marlins (+101/3.99)

A loaded Mets lineup is in Miami facing left starter Jesus Luzardo tonight, which has them profiling as an interesting option for stacking. New York features premium players at virtually every position in the projected lineup, but Luzardo is a highly talented young starter, which creates an interesting matchup. Luzardo’s primary struggles in his young career have been with health, he threw 100.1 innings in 2022 across 18 starts, posting a 30% strikeout rate with a 3.11 xFIP and a 3.32 ERA, while yielding just a 2.50% home run rate. Luzardo walked 8.8% of opposing hitters but managed to pitch through his innings with just a 1.04 WHIP, helping to limit opportunities, but the Mets lineup is packed with players who are skilled at getting on base and generating runs. While all of the Mets are fairly priced, creating a full stack comes at a premium, which may drive down the overall popularity of such a play. Getting to this lineup in spots where they may be under-owned should be a profitable habit to get into for the 2023 season. The projected Mets lineup had an average WRC+ of 120 last season, meaning that on average their hitters created runs 20% better than the average player. Only part-time outfielder Tommy Pham and catcher Tomas Nido were below average for run creation in 2022, this is an excellent offense. With the expected uptick in stolen bases, there is also a fair amount of speed potential on this team, leading to additional MLB DFS scoring potential. Star shortstop Francisco Lindor checks in at just $3,700 on FanDuel, while he costs $5,400 on the DraftKings slate tonight. Lindor has 30/30 upside for the season, in 2022 he hit 26 home runs and stole 16 bases while slashing .270/.339/.449 across a whopping 706 plate appearances. The shortstop should be hitting in front of stud first baseman Pete Alonso, who has hit 77 home runs over the past two seasons, including 40 last year. Alonso made 685 plate appearances and sported a .246 ISO while creating runs 43% better than average, he should be more expensive on FanDuel and more popular on DraftKings. Switch-hitting Eduardo Escobar is an interesting player in this lineup. Escobar is inexpensive at $4,500 on DraftKings and $2,500 on FanDuel for a player who hit 20 home runs with a 106 WRC+ in 2022 and 28 home runs with a 107 WRC+ in 2021. The combination of available hit-tool specialists, speed, on-base acumen, and power creates numerous potentially viable combinations throughout this Mets lineup, they can be stacked from top to bottom across the industry.

On the other side, the Marlins will be facing southpaw David Peterson, who threw 105.2 innings in the Majors last year, pitching to a 3.31 xFIP and a 3.83 ERA while striking out 27.8% of opposing hitters. Peterson still has issues with the free pass, he walked 10.6% of opposing hitters in 2022 and 10.1% in 2021. The lefty posted a 1.33 WHIP last year but he managed to improve his swinging-strike rate while cutting his home run rate, which shows potential for improvement. Peterson is a mid-range option on the mound today for his $8,300 FanDuel price, he is more interesting as an SP2 option on DraftKings, where he costs just $6,600. The Marlins field a lineup that includes last season’s American League batting champion, Luis Arraez, who is an excellent correlation piece, but does not provide much individual scoring upside for MLB DFS purposes. Arraez slashed .316/.375/.420 while creating runs 31% better than average in 2022, but he hit just eight home runs and stole four bases. Arraez should be stacked with the premium bats that follow him in the lineup, including Jean Segura, Garrett Cooper, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jorge Soler, and Avisail Garcia, all of whom have individual power upside. Cooper managed just nine home runs in 469 plate appearances, but his contact profile was reasonably strong with a 10.7% barrel rate and a 43.3% hard-hit percentage, suggesting more power potential. Chisholm hit 14 home runs and stole 12 bases and features multi-position eligibility on DraftKings while Soler and Garcia are right-handed mashers who can exploit a lefty who yields too much premium contact. Both players were better in larger samples in 2021, Soler hit 27 home runs and Garcia knocked 29 out of the park, they are better power options than the 13 and 8 respective home runs from last year would suggest. The bottom of the Marlins lineup provides an interesting stolen base option in the form of utility man Jon Berti, who costs $4,300 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel with multi-position eligibility. Berti stole 41 bases in just 404 plate appearances last year, with the expectation of a massive uptick in steals in 2023, there is upside for a player like Berti.

Chicago White Sox (+132/3.70) @ Houston Astros (-143/4.40)

The White Sox are in Houston for one of the better games on the slate from a real baseball perspective. Both teams are starting quality pitchers and both teams feature fairly loaded interesting lineups for MLB DFS purposes. Chicago is starting veteran right-hander Lance Lynn, who made 21 starts in 121.2 innings last season after missing the early part of the year due to injury. Lynn had one or two rough outings initially but ended up posting numbers in line with his career marks. The righty had a 24.2% strikeout rate with a 3.44 xFIP and a 3.99 ERA, the difference between the last two marks shows some of the genesis of the “Lynn isn’t the same” narrative. With a 1.14 WHIP and a 13.3% swinging-strike rate, the starter is adept at limiting opportunities and getting himself out of trouble, and he has been a starter who pitches deep into ballgames with some reliability, making him a leading option for a quality start where that matters. Lynn will be facing an excellent Astros lineup however, which should keep his ownership in check, he is a compelling tournament option on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Meanwhile, the White Sox lineup is facing Cristian Javier, an electric young starter who posted a 33.2% strikeout rate over 148.2 innings and 25 starts last season. Javier limited home runs to just 2.91% on a 33.3% hard-hit rate while posting just a 0.95 WHIP, he is excellent at limiting opportunities but he is facing a tough Chicago lineup. The White Sox are easily stackable from 1-8, or the full lineup, depending on one’s thoughts about limited infielder Elvis Andrus. Andrus gets more love than he deserves from the MLB DFS community, his 105 WRC+ last season was only the third time he was above average for run creation in a career that began in 2009. The veteran does have mid-range power and some stolen base acumen, however, so there is MLB DFS viability. Tim Anderson leads off and provides dynamic power and speed to go with an excellent hit tool. Anderson slashed .301/.339/.395 across 351 plate appearances last year and .309/.338/.469 with 17 home runs and 18 stolen bases in 551 opportunities in 2021. At full health, he has 20/40 upside across a season. Anderson is also very difficult to strike out, he had a 15.7% strikeout rate last year and he will be followed by several teammates who feature the same talents. The stack of Anderson, Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Benintendi, and Eloy Jimenez could be problematic for even a pitcher as talented as Javier. The first three hitters were all above average avoiding strikeouts and all feature power and speed upside as well as excellent contact skills, while Jimenez has an excellent hit tool and monster power potential. Catcher Yasmani Grandal was outstanding in 2021, slashing .240/.420/.520 with 23 home runs in 375 plate appearances, he cratered in 2022 with just a .202/.301/.269 triple-slash and five home runs, but the truth is in the middle. Grandal is an underrated option at the catcher spot where the position is required.

The Astros loaded lineup is missing star second baseman Jose Altuve, not that you’d even notice. The stacked team should have Jeremy Pena in the leadoff role this evening. Pena burst onto the scene last year, hitting 22 home runs and stealing 11 bases in his 558 plate appearances. He costs $4,900 on DraftKings but is wildly mispriced at just $2,900 on FanDuel, which should make him a very popular positional option and a key piece in Astros stacks. Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Kyle Tucker rival any quartet of hitters in baseball for quality and five-category contributions. The primary aspect that the group features is power potential. Alvarez and Tucker alone combined for 67 home runs last year, while Bregman hit 23 and Abreu managed 15 while slashing .304/.378/.446. The first baseman should see a boost in the Houston lineup, he hit 30 home runs in a similar number of opportunities in 2021 and he still managed a 51.7% hard-hit rate in 2022, the downturn in home runs seems like happenstance. Stacking the Astros from one 1-5 is an extremely obvious and very expensive approach to this slate, but they are interesting at the bottom of the lineup as well. The projected players from 6-9 cost an average of $2,200 on DraftKings and $2,100 on FanDuel. While there are flaws in all of Yainer Diaz, Jake Meyers, Martin Maldonado, and Mauricio Dubon, there is also an upside in their pricing. The field may be slow on the draw in stacking the bottom of the Astros lineup in unique combinations with the premium hitters, which should create a significant opportunity in MLB DFS tournaments on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.

Colorado Rockies (+172/3.41) @ San Diego Padres (-189/4.70)

The Rockies on the road against a righty has long been a targetable spot for MLB DFS options on the mound, but Padres starter Nick Martinez does not have premium strikeout potential and he is a mid-rotation starter overall. Martinez posted a 21.2% strikeout rate across 106.1 innings in 2022, allowing a 9.2% walk rate and posting a 4.04 xFIP that belies his 3.47 ERA to some degree. The righty allowed a 3.35% home run rate and a 1.29 WHIP, yielding more opportunities for run creation than direct power. He will be facing a mediocre lineup in his pitching-friendly home park, but Martinez is hardly a “safe” option, even at $7,300 on DraftKings and $7,400 on FanDuel. The Rockies’ lineup is somewhat interesting tonight because they are facing a middling starter and they are cheap and potentially will not be popular outside of Coors Field. Colorado’s Kris Bryant missed most of last season, making just 181 plate appearances, but he was very much the same hitter who starred for the Cubs for his whole career. In the small sample, the righty – now outfielder – slashed .306/.376/.475 with just five home runs and a .169 ISO but a 125 WRC+. Bryant is too cheap at just $3,300 on FanDuel and $4,900 on DraftKings, he should be a featured option in Rockies stacks and he makes for a dynamite one-off play across the industry. Joining Bryant in the lineup are Jurickson Profar, who had a minor breakout in 2022 after being a highly regarded prospect for years, but then struggled to find a job coming into this season, finally latching on with Colorado after several Spring injuries. Profar hit 15 home runs and stole five bases last season, he should be in the leadoff spot and makes an interesting correlation piece. Outfielder Charlie Blackmon, first baseman C.J. Cron, and lefties Ryan McMahon and Mike Moustakas create a solid power core in the middle of the Colorado lineup, pending which version of Moustakas shows up for this season. Blackmon is on the wrong side of his career, but he still has “any given slate” upside, he hit 16 home runs in 577 tries last year. McMahon has multi-position eligibility and comes in too cheap for a player who hit 20 home runs in 2022 and 23 in 2021. The bottom of Colorado’s projected lineup should see Yonathan Daza come in both cheap and under-owned, and rookie Ezequiel Tovar as a strong wrap-around option for just $2,100 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel. With the uptick in stolen base attempts on Opening Day, we have ample evidence that teams are going to run at will this season, Tovar is a player with a strong speed skillset of whom the field is currently unaware, making him a good tournament play.

The Padres are prohibitively expensive on the DraftKings slate and they should be very popular in a matchup against lefty hurler Kyle Freeland. Freeland is not an overly viable option for MLB DFS play, he struck out just 17.1% of hitters across 174.2 innings last season and 20.4% in 120.2 innings in 2021. The southpaw does not yield much power, but he allows far too many run-creation opportunities with his 1.41 WHIP last year and 1.42 mark the season before. Freeland pitched to a 4.49 xFIP and a 4.53 ERA last year, he is not a good option for anything but eating innings. The Padres should be able to get on base and exploit Freeland’s weaknesses, they have scoring upside even without massive home run potential. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts just adds to the riches on display in the San Diego lineup. The former Red Sox star slashed .307/.377/.456 with 15 home runs and eight stolen bases last season, he has upside for more power and speed and could improve on a run creation mark that was already 34% better than average in a bad Boston lineup last season. Bogaerts is followed by stars Manny Machado, who is second in our home run model for the Padres today, and Juan Soto, who leads the way for power potential. Soto had a disappointing season last year but he is an elite bat who should be rostered frequently on this slate. If Nelson Cruz is hitting cleanup he is an option against a left-handed starter. Cruz is probably lingering longer than he should, he will turn 43 midway through this season and struggled to hit just 10 home runs in 507 opportunities last year, but it is difficult to write him off at just $3,800 and $2,500 from DraftKings to FanDuel. The back end of the lineup features intriguing options like Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim, who both feature multi-position eligibility on DraftKings. Kim posted a .251/.325/.383 triple-slash in 2022 after struggling in his first year coming over from the KBO in 2021. Kim hit 11 home runs and stole 12 bases, he has 20/20 potential and can be included in stacks.

Arizona Diamondbacks (+170/3.20) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-186/4.40)

A tough battle in Los Angeles features an interestingly constructed Diamondbacks lineup that the MLB DFS community may not fully appreciate yet. Arizona is inexpensive and the field may behind the curve on some of the new names in the lineup. The team will be facing Dodgers righty Dustin May, who has filthy stuff, but has struggled to stay on the mound in his young career. May has an absurd horizontal break on his pitches and his upside for strikeouts is very real. In his tiny 23-inning sample across five starts in 2021, he posted a ridiculous 37.6% strikeout rate. May only appeared in six starts last year, posting 30 innings and a 22.8% strikeout rate but a 12.9% swinging-strike rate. The dip in strikeouts came from an inability to throw strikes, his CSW% dipped from 34% in 2021 to just 28.7% in 2022, despite a drop of only 1.2% in swinging strikes. May has major upside, but he may also create opportunities for a Diamondbacks lineup that will seek to get on base and chase the righty from the game early. Corbin Carroll made 115 plate appearances as a rookie last season, hitting four home runs and swiping two bags while creating runs 30% better than average and mashing the ball with a .240 ISO in the small sample, he is a star in the making and he comes far too cheap at just $3,100 on DraftKings and $3,000 on the blue site. He is followed by strong options in Ketel Marte, Jake McCarthy, and Christian Walker. McCarthy slashed .283/.342/.427 with 23 stolen bases in just 354 plate appearances last season, creating runs 16% better than average, he has the potential for 40 stolen bases this year. Walker hit 36 home runs in 2022 in 667 plate appearances, leading the team with an 11.5% barrel rate and a 44% hard-hit percentage. That group will be followed by multi-position infielder Josh Rojas and newcomer Loudres Gurriel Jr., who has posted strong results in his years in Toronto. Gurriel slashed .291/.343/.400 with a 114 WRC+ in 493 plate appearances last season for the Blue Jays. He struggled for power, with just five home runs and an anemic .108 ISO, but he hit 21 homers and had a .190 ISO the year before. Gurriel should be included in stacks and he may be a very sneaky tournament option on both sites tonight.

The Dodgers have beaten Merrill Kelly every time he has started against them in his career and we do not care about that at all. Kelly is an interesting mid-level right-handed starter who comes at a fair price and is unlikely to be popular in a brutal matchup. The righty had a 22% strikeout rate across 200.1 innings last year and a 19.5% rate in 2021, he does not have a massive ceiling for MLB DFS scoring, but he could be a viable SP2 option on DraftKings where it will be easy to get beyond whatever the field’s exposure is, he is less of an option on the one-pitcher site. Kelly is facing an All-Star team of a lineup that kicks off with superstars Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman who cost $6,000 and $5,800 on DraftKings and $3,900 each on FanDuel. Catcher Will Smith should be a popular option where his position is required and he is a viable play at just $3,400 on FanDuel where it is not. That price may drive up the ownership on a backstop who hit 24 home runs in 578 plate appearances last season while creating runs 27% better than average. Smith should be followed by lefty Max Muncy who is flashing a strong home run upside. Muncy hit 21 long balls last year after mashing 36 the season before. He struggled with just a .196/.329/.384 triple slash but still created runs six percent better than average and is a major bounce-back candidate across the industry’s projections. J.D. Martinez, David Peralta, Miguel Vargas, and the bottom of the Dodgers lineup serve more to differentiate and offset pricing and popularity. Martinez is unlikely to return to the salad days of more than 30 home runs, but he should still be a good source of MLB DFS scoring, given the opportunities to drive in runs that he will be presented with all year.

Cleveland Guardians (+145/3.59) @ Seattle Mariners (-158/4.50)

The final game of the night is perhaps the most important and interesting of the slate. The Guardians’ excellent and under-appreciated lineup will be facing lefty Robbie Ray, in a spot that was featured in the Power Index column. Ray came back to Earth somewhat in 2022, posting a 27.4% strikeout rate which was a dip from the 32.1% mark in his excellent 2021. His walks also ticked back up from 6.9% to 8.0%, which is problematic but not nearly as bad as the 10-12% rate at which he pitched before 2021. Ray has always struggled with home runs, he allowed a 4.27% home run rate two years ago and a 4.13% mark last year, though his hard-hit rate allowed did dip from 42.9% to 39.1%. The biggest issue for Ray will be talking about a Guardians lineup that is exceedingly difficult to strike out. The top five hitters in Cleveland’s lineup tonight had an average strikeout rate of just 14.7% last season, with Oscar Gonzalez’s 19.6% rate dragging that number down. There are excellent bats throughout this lineup, if they find their way on base or drive up Ray’s pitch count by avoiding the strikeout, it could be a strong under-owned tournament play. At the same time, it makes plenty of sense to invest in shares of Ray when not stacking Guardians, he remains one of the better pitching options on the slate. Guardians stacks should begin at the top with Steven Kwan, who comes in at just $3,800 on DraftKings and $3,400 on FanDuel. Kwan struck out just 9.4% of the time while walking 9.7% and slashing .298/.373/.400 and creating runs 24% better than average last year. The underrated outfielder stole 19 bases and should swipe more this year, he is rarely popular due to a lack of power upside, which makes him a great option to offset the popularity of other bats in this stack. Amed Rosario is a mid-range power bat with premium stolen base upside, he hit 11 home runs and stole 18 bases in 2022, following up 2021 in which he hit the same number of home runs and stole 13 bases in fewer plate appearances. Rosario should be included as should his double-play partner Andres Gimenez, who hits behind superstar Jose Ramiez and Guardians’ first baseman Josh Bell. That mid-lineup three-man stack is a viable option on its own, combining it with Rosario and Kwan is not overly expensive and will not be popular against Ray, making it this space’s favorite five-man of the night. Stacking Kwan, Rosario, Ramirez, Bell, and Gimenez costs a total of $23,000 on DraftKings with an average of $4,600, they are even less expensive on FanDuel. Oscar Gonzalez can be swapped in to lower the price on both sites as well. A potentially under-owned option where catchers are required, assuming he is in the lineup, is masher, Mike Zunino. The prodigious power bat struggled last season, managing only five home runs in just 123 plate appearances, but he destroyed 33 long balls in just 375 tries in 2021, Zunino is a sneaky home run play on this slate and could have tournament-winning upside on the right day.

The Seattle lineup is equally interesting and they are facing a limited starter and, likely, a good chunk of the Cleveland bullpen today. This was originally a start for excellent righty Triston McKenzie, who came up injured and will miss time. His replacement in the rotation is Hunter Gaddis, who was originally slated to begin the season in the bullpen. Gaddis was starting through Spring Training, so he should be able to cover a handful of innings, pending the quality of his results. In his two starts and 7.1 innings last season, Gaddis had just a 12.5% strikeout rate with a 7.42 xFIP, though the sample is absurdly small. It is probably also unfair to point to the model-breaking seven home runs that Gaddis allowed in 7.1 innings in the Show as anything other than happenstance, but it is a blemish on his record. The Mariners will lead things off with superstar Julio Rodriguez, who is leading the team in our home run model. Rodriguez hit 28 home runs last season, posting a .225 ISO and creating runs 46% better than average on his way to the Rookie of the Year Award. He is followed by Kolten Wong and Ty France, who hit 15 and 20 home runs respectively, with well above-average run-creation marks. Teoscar Hernandez, Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suarez, and Jarred Kelenic were featured as an extremely interesting core in the Power Index. All four hitters are above average in our home run model today. All four hitters were between a 13.6 (Kelenic) and a 15.4% (Raleigh) barrel rate last season. Kelenic in particular is very interesting because he is cheap and the field is probably still sleeping on him despite a monster Spring. The post-hype prospect has struggled massively in the Show over the last two seasons, but he may simply have needed more development time, Kelenic has tournament-winning sleeper upside until further notice.