In the interest of time and travel, today’s overview is presented in more of a summary format than the typical in-depth review, which will return for tomorrow’s slate. The MLB DFS slate features eight games on both sites this evening, with a 7:10 ET start on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The slate includes several excellent spots for power, a Coors Field game featuring one of the league’s very best offenses, and a few standout top-of-the-rotation starters available on the mound. Of course, MLB DFS and baseball itself never take straight lines through a slate like this, so navigating the available combinations and leverage positions is a complex task. The choice between premium pitching and bats is a difficult one on a slate such as this, particularly with the aggressive nature of pricing from site to site to start the season.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to any news for changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Summary- 4/10/23
San Diego Padres (+119/3.57) @ New York Mets (-129/4.01)
A pitching duel between Yu Darvish $8,400/$9,300 and Max Scherzer $10,400/$10,100 has offense looking slightly suppressed in the battle between two excellent teams in Queens. The Padres are carrying just a 3.57-run implied total, while the Mets barely creep over the four-run mark. With that in mind, this could be a source of contrarian bats. The most likely outcome is a solid pitcher’s duel, which could put both starters in play. Scherzer is worth the cost, the ace struck out 30.6% with a 3.23 xFIP last year and 34.1% with a 3.24 mark the year before. The righty is more expensive than his counterpart, Darvish comes cheap for a starter who had a 25.6% strikeout rate last year and a 29.2% mark the season before, though the Mets are a tough matchup for the lesser of the two high-end starters.
Bats in this game should be considered a contrarian tournament option. It seems somewhat unlikely that full stacks will manage to provide enough value and scoring upside to win an MLB DFS tournament when facing starters of this caliber. That both teams have above-average bullpens also works against the stacking notion. Still, there are excellent bats in both lineups and when stars like Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts are available they can be played even against a pitcher like Scherzer. Other options in the Padres lineup are less inspiring, with Trent Grisham, Matt Carpenter, and Rougned Odor occupying prominent places in the projected batting order. More interesting hitters from late in the lineup include Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim. With Darvish striking out fewer hitters, the Mets may offer a touch of additional upside by comparison, but the play is also thin. New York bats include Brandon Nimmo who is too cheap at $4,400 on DraftKings and just $3,000 on FanDuel. Nimmo hits ahead of Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso, a four-man stack that can be deployed conservatively in this matchup. The bottom of the order leaves a lot of power on the table with primarily contact specialists, though Eduardo Escobar can provide upside for MLB DFS scoring.
Play: Max Scherzer, Yu Darvish, minor shares of bats.
Update Notes:
Cincinnati Reds (+178/3.58) @ Atlanta Braves (-196/5.03)
One of the day’s better games for offense sees the Braves landing above a five-run implied total in a matchup against Graham Ashcraft, who had just a 15.3% strikeout rate last year. It could be a long short day for the righty against the loaded Braves, he is not in play for MLB DFS use at $7,000 on DraftKings and a completely absurd $9,800 on FanDuel. On the other side, Bryce Elder does not look like one to offer much resistance to the lesser Reds bats. Elder had a 20.7% strikeout rate over 54 innings last year, but he limited power well with just a 34.4% hard-hit rate and a 1.76% home run rate allowed.
The bats in this game are playable on hometown Atlanta’s side in full stacks, while the visiting Reds are more limited. With Elder’s ability to induce soft and medium contact, it becomes more difficult to foresee big offensive production, particularly with the lack of premium names in the Reds lineup. Cincinnati bats in play include Jonathan India, T.J. Friedl, Jake Fraley, and Tyler Stephenson, in limited shares. With first base and outfield eligibility on DraftKings, both Wil Myers and Jason Vosler are in play for $3,300 and $3,900, they have value on FanDuel as well, where Myers is just an outfielder but costs only $2,400. The Atlanta lineup is playable from top to bottom. Catcher Sean Murphy is hitting cleanup in the confirmed version of the lineup, with stars Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, and Austin Riley hitting ahead of him. All four hitters have home run upside and all four were well above average for run creation last season. Ozzie Albies is a terrific option at second base for just $4,700/$3,000 and the bottom of the lineup gets very cheap very fast with Eddie Rosario, Orlando Arcia, Kevin Pillar, and Eli White starting for an average price of $2,400 on DraftKings. The Braves are a focal point for offense on this MLB DFS slate.
Play: Braves bats
Update Notes:
Seattle Mariners (-144/4.68) @ Chicago Cubs (+133/3.91)
An excellent Mariners lineup is looking like another strong option for offense in their matchup against lefty Drew Smyly in Wrigley Field. The veteran pitcher struck out just 20.4% last year and he allowed a 3.58% home run rate on an 8.6% barrel mark. Smyly pitched to a 4.18 xFIP with a 5.8% walk rate last year, and he had very similar numbers the year before outside of his home run mark that came in at an ugly 4.95%. The Mariners, on the other hand, will have one of the day’s best starters going in the form of Luis Castillo. The righty costs $9,600/$10,500 from site to site, which puts him in play alongside the top starters of the day. Castillo struck out 27.2% last year, pitching to a 3.23 xFIP with just a 2.11% home run rate, he is very good and worthy of investment against a bad Cubs lineup. Castillo could easily cruise to the day’s largest pitching score.
The Mariners should be stacked aggressively in this matchup, they are on of the day’s top options. Julio Rodriguez brings a blend of power and speed that makes him essentially mandatory in Mariners’ stacks, while he is an excellent one-off as well. Rodriguez hits in front of a strong group including Ty France, Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh, and A.J. Pollock in the projected lineup. That entire group is playable in a variety of combinations, they come cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and cover a range of positions, including a premium catcher for DraftKings usage. Tom Murhpy could provide sneaky power upside from the bottom of the lineup, he hit 11 home runs in 325 plate appearances two years ago but made just 42 plate appearances last year. Murphy costs $2,200/$2,000 and is targetable on both sites with a 6.56 in our home run model. The Cubs are a difficult recommendation in this matchup. The playable bats are the same as typical slates: Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, and Trey Mancini, with a sprinkling of home run potential from Patrick Wisdom. That is not a stack that should be deployed in full very often in this matchup, Cubs bats may be better left on the table or used as one-offs tonight.
Play: Luis Castillo, Mariners bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Kansas City Royals (+151/3.99) @ Texas Rangers (-164/5.11)
The Royals are a featured team in our Power Index, they are in a difficult matchup for sequencing and run creation, with Andrew Heaney on the mound, but the lefty has one flaw in giving up too many home runs. This puts the Royals bats in play as potential one-offs, rather than as full stacks, while Heaney is a strong option on the mound at the same time. There could be a major strikeout ceiling for the southpaw in this matchup, Kansas City has a number of free-swinging hitters in their lineup this season. Heaney comes cheap at $7,900 on the DraftKings slate and $7,800 on the one-pitcher site. He struck out 35.5% of hitters in 72.2 innings last year and 26.9% across 129.2 the season before, there is underpriced quality in play in Texas. The same cannot be said about Royals starter Zack Greinke, who is unplayable.
The Rangers bats see major upside for sequencing, run creation, and power in the matchup against the washed-up veteran righty. At $5,100/$3,300 and $4,800/$3,000, the duo of Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are too cheap for the matchup against this starter. There is excellent potential in rostering the pair of infield bats as a duo, or as part of a larger Rangers stack that can add bats such as Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia, who brings lethal power and speed for just a $4,700/$3,500 price tag, and Mitch Garver, who has sneaky pop at the catcher spot for just $4,600 in the projected lineup. All of the Rangers bats will be playable, they should be mixed and matched, including flawed young players Josh Jung and Josh Smith, and veteran lefty bat Brad Miller, who may be another sneaky inexpensive option. he team features leadoff man Bobby Witt Jr. who hit 20 home runs as a rookie while posting a .174 ISO and a 38.6% hard-hit rate. Witt is one of the team’s better correlation pieces, if stacking is the approach he should not be skipped. Edward Olivares costs just $3,300 on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel, he hit four home runs in 174 plate appearances last season and five in 111 tries the year before, the young outfielder is unlikely to be popular, if he hits in the projected two spot in the lineup he can provide value. The true power in the Royals lineup comes through the middle, with M.J. Melendez, Sal Perez, Franmil Reyes, and Vinnie Pasquantino, the last of whom is the best overall hitter in the group. Melendez, Perez, and Reyes take a more all-or-nothing approach. Reyes may go under-appreciated by MLB DFS gamers, he costs just $3,000/$2,400 and is coming off a season in which he hit only 14 home runs, but in 2021 he hit 30 long balls in 66 plate appearances. The bottom of the lineup sees Hunter Dozier as the best bet for a home run at a 6.33 in our model, but the top six hitters are the clear focus, and selecting a small group or individual against Heaney is the suggested approach.
Play: Andrew Heaney, Texas bats/stacks, Royals bats as one-offs
Update Notes:
St. Louis Cardinals (-138/6.26) @ Colorado Rockies (+127/5.37)
A battle in Coors Field, even with quality righty German Marquez, has the high-flying Cardinals offense pulling in a massive 6.26-run implied team total tonight. The Cardinals look like an undeniably good option and they will likely be massively popular on this slate. St. Louis features a lineup filled with stars and premium MLB DFS scoring options. Brendan Donovan and Alec Burelson will provide two left-handed bats atop the lineup with the potential to correlate with popular stars Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Catcher Willson Contreras and outfield slugger Tyler O’Neill are too cheap at $4,300/$3,100 each from DraftKings to FanDuel, those hitters should be $1,000 more expensive on each site for this matchup in Colorado. The bottom of the lineup is excellent for the Cardinals as well, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, and Tommy Edman can provide fantastic individual scoring as well as correlation with other pieces. The Cardinals are a lock-and-load play from one through nine tonight. On the other side of the game, the lesser Rockies bats are still pulling in a run-total above five, with left-handed Steven Matz on the mound. Rockies right-handed bats should be the prime focus, with Jurickson Profar as a playable option for mid-range power and speed. Profar leads into Kris Bryant and C.J. Cron, assuming the latter is over his flu-like symptoms and returns to the lineup. Young third baseman Elehuris Montero is our home run pick from the Rockies today, and left-handed veterans Charlie Blackmon and Ryan McMahon could find value against Matz.
The pitchers do not lack talent, but the game environment in Colorado and the presence of several excellent pitching options makes it a very thin play that is not recommended for tonight’s slate.
Play: Cardinals stacks, fewer Rockies stacks
Update Notes:
Washington Nationals (+216/3.76) @ Los Angeles Angels (-240/5.88)
Another major target for today’s power index sees Patrick Corbin lead the Nationals into Anaheim to lose to the Angels. Three of the Angels hitters rank above the “magic number” of 10 in our home run model, with Mike Trout leading the way at a 15.81 mark. He is joined by left-handed superstar Shohei Ohtani, who checks in at a 13.99. The duo costs $12,300 on DraftKings and $7,700 on the blue site, putting them out of reach in combination with a pair of premium pitchers. Fortunately, there are enough value plays on the board to make it work, including within the Angels’ own lineup. The third player over a 10 is Hunter Renfroe, who checks in for just $4,700 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel, which is far too cheap for a player who hit 29 home runs last year and 31 the year before. Brandon Drury and Anthony Rendon join Taylor Ward as strong right-handed power bats who drop into the model between 8 and 10, giving the Angels a run of six hitters at or around a terrific home run chance. The lineup trails off with Luis Rengifo, Gio Urshela, and Logan O’Hoppe, but the latter checks in as a $3,500 catcher with a touch of power where backstops are necessary. Corbin himself does not seem like a wise option for pitching shares, even at $5,400 on DraftKings as an SP2. He is a usable part, but there is an extraordinarily narrow corridor for success with the play, value is best found elsewhere on the mound.
The Angels will have Jose Suarez on the hill to face the lousy Nationals lineup. Suarez is a quality left-handed starter who is not getting enough respect at $6,900/$6,800 this evening. The southpaw had a 3.86 xFIP and a 1.25 WHIP last season, striking out 22.3% of opposing hitters over 109 innings in 20 starts. Suarez allowed an average amount of power and he was similarly effective in the mid-range the season before. The lefty is in play, given his extremely low prices and the matchup he faces in a largely inept Washington team. Playable Nationals bats include primarily the righties, with Stone Garrett, Alex Call, Joey Meneses, and Michael Chavis providing the most individual upside.
Play: Angels stacks, Jose Suarez
Update Notes:
Milwaukee Brewers (+129/4.18) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-140/4.91)
With a solid right-handed starter on the mound in the form of Zac Gallen, the Brewers look like a lesser option at the plate tonight. Gallen is not an apex ace, but he is on the next tier of pitchers. The righty had a 26.9% strikeout rate over 184 innings last year and a 26.6% mark the year before in 121.1. Gallen pitched to a 3.32 xFIP with a sparkling 0.91 WHIP last year, he is a strong play at, for inexplicable reasons, a $7,100 price tag on DraftKings. He costs $8,900 on the blue site, which keeps him firmly in play alongside starters with better name recognition, Gallen is a great option even against a good Brewers lineup. The same is not necessarily true for Milwaukee’s hurler on this slate. Wade Miley had just a 17.6% strikeout rate last season and an 18.1% mark the year before. The veteran lefty is capable of pitching clean innings and reaching quality starts, but he does not fill one with a sense of reliability and there are equally appealing options in the price range, considering that Miley is $600 more than Gallen on the DraftKings slate.
The Brewers are playable only in small doses, but as a hedge against what should be significant ownership on a pitcher like Gallen at his price makes sense as an angle of attack on a large portion of the slate in large field tournaments. When building a full portfolio of lineups, getting beyond the field on contrarian Brewers bats could work, assuming they come up unpopular and Gallen gets attention. In that case, the tagets include Christian Yelich, Jesse Winker, Willy Adames, and Rowdy Tellez as primary options from the projected lineup. Garrett Mitchell may sneak through in this matchup, he is a strong value play if that happens, as is catcher William Contreras, who has one of the better bats behind the plate tonight. The Diamondbacks have been a popular option early in the year, the team has quality particularly when facing a left-handed pitcher, and they look primed for success against Miley, though the crafty veteran could find his way to allowing only a few runs. Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are projected to hit first and second ahead of Christian Walker, a masher who blasted 36 home runs with a .235 ISO last season. That trio is a strong play on both sites, they come cheap and feature significant upside. Veteran Evan Longoria can be added, or one could opt for young lefty Corbin Carroll, while the bottom of the projected lineup begins to tail off quickly. The focus should be from one through five primarily.
Play: Zac Gallen, contrarian Brewers bats, Diamondbacks stacks
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-149/4.16) @ San Francisco Giants (+137/3.42)
The late game on the slate sees a dynamite pitching matchup, with Julio Urias dueling Logan Webb in San Francisco. Both starters are good at suppressing opposing power and keeping scoring low, and both are capable of finding strikeout upside against even the best lineups. Webb pitched to a 3.32 xFIP with a 20.7% strikeout rate last year, holding offenses to just a 1.40% home run rate. He limited power to just a 1.51% mark the season before, a feat he achieves by inducing a -0.5-degree average launch angle that season, he had a 3.1-degree mark last year, it is difficult to hit home runs against this righty. Urias is similarly excellent at limiting power, though he gets there via a different mechanism. The lefty allowed a 17.2-degree average launch angle in 2022 and a 15.5-degree mark in 2021, but he is excellent at keeping hitter entirely off balance, and he is one of the better starters in baseball at inducing weak contact. Urias allowed just a 30.2% hard-hit rate last year and a 30.3% mark the season before, fly balls die off the bat against this pitcher. With both starters looking to limit offense and get deep into a game, even against two strong lineups, this looks like a game from which to draw pitching shares more than bats.
At the same time, the Dodgers are never entirely out of play, and they are not likely to be popular on this slate. Getting to limited allocations of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and Max Muncy is rarely an entirely bad idea, there is an upside even against Webb’s contact profile. At price, it is difficult to string all of those hitters together but the Dodgers offer discounts on bats like J.D. Martinez, James Outman, and others from the bottom of the batting order. The Giants are somewhat more difficult to endorse in this matchup. The team’s most prominent bats tend to be left-handed hitters, but Wilmer Flores and J.D. Davis are compelling right-handed names against this lefty. David Villar can be played as can Thairo Estrada, while lefties Michael Conforto and Brandon Crawford could be in for a longer day.
Play: Julio Urias, Logan Webb, limited shares of bats on both sides
Update Notes:
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