Tonight’s eight-game MLB DFS slate gets rolling at 7:05 ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The slate features some significant upside for power output, with a number of stars landing well above the magic number in our home run model and a long list of mediocre starters on the mound for their respective squads. Getting to a broad spread of bats with a bit of a concentrated focus on the limited premium options and a few value plays on the mound might be the best approach to a slate that also includes a Coors Field game.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Summary – 5/24/23
Baltimore Orioles (+115/3.85) @ New York Yankees (-125/4.25)
There appears to be a strong possibility that the original Nestor Cortes Jr. has finally caught up to the alternate-universe talented version of himself who had replaced him for the last few years and retaken his role as Cortes Prime. After surprising with a 2.90 ERA and 4.18 xFIP with a 27.5% strikeout rate in 93 innings and 14 starts in 2021, Cortes came back with an even better 2.44 ERA and 3.64 xFIP with a .92 WHIP and 26.5% strikeout rate last year. This season, Cortes has completely reverted to his previously poor form. The lefty has a 5.21 ERA and 5.00 xFIP with a 1.28 WHIP and just a 23.5% strikeout rate over nine starts and 48.1 innings. The southpaw has allowed a 39.6% hard-hit rate which is up several percentage points over the past few seasons, as are his average exit velocity and barrel rate allowed. Cortes has induced fewer swinging strikes and is throwing far fewer strikes overall, with his CSW% dropping from 28.3% to 25.5%. Cortes has an interesting mix of pitches and he was notorious for changing up release points, arm angles, and timing, but one theory suggests that the pitch clock is impacting his ability to toy with hitters in that way. We prefer the alternate-universe doppelganger replacement theory. At $8,100/$8,300, there is a path to success for the lefty against this Orioles lineup, but it is probably best approached as a mid-range both-sides option tonight. Cortes is playable, but so are Orioles bats. The Baltimore lineup opens with Cedric Mullins who has eight home runs and 13 stolen bases with a .237 ISO and 146 WRC+ so far this season. The switch-hitter costs $5,600/$3,900 which is probably too cheap for his power and speed combination atop the lineup. Adley Rutschman is arguably already the best catcher in baseball. With apologies to some, or at least one, reader, we will continue to put him “on the shortlist” while not quite rewarding the young backstop the mantle yet. Rutschman is slaching .270/.400/.431 while creating runs 33% better than average for the year, he strikes out just 14% of the time and walks at an 18.1% pace that could give Cortes fits tonight. The catcher costs just $5,000 where the position is required and $3,400 across town where he is easily playable. Ryan Mountcastle has 10 home runs and a 9.92 in our home run model tonight. The righty first baseman has been mashing when he makes contact, he has a 17.1% barrel rate and 46.1% hard-hit for the season, which are both up from the already strong marks he posted last year in hitting 22 home runs, a total he seems likely to breeze past sometime in July. Anthony Santander is another decent option for power tonight, the switch-hitting outfielder has an 8.99 in our home run model with eight in his ledger for the season and a 120 WRC+ over 195 plate appearances. Austin Hays and James McCann add right-handed pop in the middle of the lineup. Hays has a .181 ISO with five home runs, McCann has just two home runs and a .129 ISO but his 45.1% hard-hit rate supports the idea of power for the platoon specialist. Jorge Mateo slots in seventh at $4,900/$3,000 amidst a monthlong slump. Mateo is down to .237/.285/.420 and needs to get back to getting on base regularly, if not hitting for power. Gunnar Henderson got involved last night and is up to .201/.335/.381 with five home runs, a .179 ISO, and a 103 WRC+. Henderson is cheap for his level of prospect pedigree when his main problem has been being too discerning at the plate, he costs just $4,000/$2,500. Joey Ortiz rounds out the projected lineup with a 2.05 in our home run model.
Righty Tyler Wells has been pretty good so far this year. The 28-year-old has made eight starts and thrown 52 innings with a 2.94 ERA and 4.33 xFIP with a sparkling 0.79 WHIP. Wells has induced an 11.9% swinging strike rate and he has a 23.7% CSW% that is up about a point over last year’s strike-throwing mark. Wells has a 23.5% strikeout rate and has been very good at limiting free passes, which could be an interesting mix against this aggressive Yankees lineup that is flashing some upside for power against him. Wells has allowed a 5.10% home run rate so far this season despite otherwise pitching well, the 10.8% barrel rate, 42.4% hard-hit rate, and 90.3 mph of average exit velocity which is playing into the upside of a few of the Yankees’ home run hitters. New York’s projected lineup opens with Gleyber Torres, who has a 9.10 in our home run model with seven in the books over 206 plate appearances so far this season. Torres’ power famously disappeared in the weird short 2020 season and for all of 2021 before he came back to life last year with 24 homers and a .194 ISO in 572 opportunities. Torres has been below last year’s level of premium contact so far this season, dipping from 10.7% barrels and 44.9% hard hits to 7.7% and 33.5% but he is at worst an effective correlated scoring play and he has made two major strides at the plate that are going under-discussed. Torres has halved his strikeout rate while doubling his walk rate year-over-year as the season rounds the quarter pole. The second baseman walked at a 6.8% pace with a 22.6% strikeout rate last year and is so far at a 12.1% walk rate and 12.6% strikeout rate in 2023, which has him involved to the tune of a 117 WRC+. Aaron Judge is playable in any matchup, tonight he leads the entire slate with a 17.16 in our home run model. Judge has 14 on the season with a .355 ISO while creating runs 81% better than average, he is worth all the salary necessary. Anthony Rizzo has 11 home runs while slashing .310/.388/533 with a .223 ISO and 157 WRC+ this season, the excellent first baseman remains cheap at $5,100/$3,300 and has an 11.54 to land second on the team in our home run model. DJ LeMahieu is also inexpensive, he lands at just $3,700 with third base eligibility on the DraftKings slate and costs just $2,800 on FanDuel with eligibility at both corner infield spots and second base. LeMahieu is striking out at a 27% clip this season, up 14 points year-over-year, but he has also pushed his hard-hit rate up by about 11 percentage points in an odd 178 plate appearances for the veteran. LeMahieu has five home runs but just a .156 ISO and a 103 WRC+ in the heart of the order. Harrison Bader has been an important piece of the Yankees run creation machine since returning to the lineup 73 plate appearances ago. The outfielder has a .275 ISO with five home runs and three stolen bases while creating runs 38% better than average. Bader strikes out just 9.7% of the time and walks just 2.7%, meaning that the ball has been put in play in a significant number of his plate appearances so far. Bader is a viable option at $3,800/$3,100, he has a 6.78 in our home run model. Willie Calhoun is in the projected lineup but we could also see Jake Bauers in this spot, either player makes for a lower-end option, Calhoun has a 7.03 in our home run model with three on the board this season, Bauers would have a 7.71 in the same spot. Anthony Volpe has been up and down, his production of counting stats has made him valuable for MLB DFS purposes at fair prices and a premium position, but overall he is slashing .207/.291/379 with a run-creation mark that sits 14% below league-average. The shortstop is cheap for his ceiling at just $4,100/$2,900 in this matchup, he is an interesting option particularly if he ends up lower-owned. Oswaldo Cabrera and Ben Rortvedt round out the projected lineup with a 5.10 and 7.24 in our home run model. Rortvedt has made just four plate appearances at catcher this year, coming up after Jose Trevino hit the injured list. He hit three home runs in 98 otherwise ineffectual plate appearances in 2021 and did not have an MLB plate appearance in 2022. As usual, we would prefer Kyle Higashioka for MLB DFS purposes.
Play: Four corners potential: Yankees bats/stacks, Tyler Wells, Nestor Cortes, Orioles bats/stacks in that order
Update Notes: the Orioles official lineup runs as projected. Correction: Joey Ortiz is in for Henderson and will hit ninth for Baltimore. The Yankees lineup includes Higashioka at catcher and hitting ninth, which is a positional upgrade, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa instead of Oswaldo Cabrera, which is roughly a lateral move.
San Diego Padres (-151/5.57) @ Washington Nationals (+138/4.56)
The Padres have the slate’s highest non-Coors total at 5.57 implied runs against righty Trevor Williams. San Diego’s lineup is flashing both power and run creation upside, despite still missing Manny Machado, they look like a premium stacking option in this matchup and the team offers interesting pricing and multi-position eligibility through several of the non-star options, which helps with lineup creation. Williams has made nine starts and thrown 44.1 innings while pitching to a 4.26 ERA and 4.96 xFIP with just a 16.9% strikeout rate. The righty has induced just 7.8% swinging strikes and he has a 23.1% CSW%, his ability to punch holes in a lineup is limited and he allows too much premium contact with a 13.1% barrel rate to this point in the year. That has amounted to a 3.70% home run rate despite just 87.2 mph of average exit velocity and 35.2% hard hits. The righty does not look like a strong option for MLB DFS at $7,200 on both sites, he would need to be cheaper to be a true value play on this slate. Fernando Tatis Jr. sits at 16.61 in our home run model, behind only Aaron Judge on this slate. Tatis has a .217 ISO with a 9.3% barrel rate and 43.3% hard-hit rate over his 129 plate appearances which has resulted in seven home runs and a run-creation mark 17% better than average. Tatis is a star and makes for an easy click in lineups, he costs $6,100/$3,700 and still has shortstop eligibility on FanDuel in addition to his outfield positioning. Jake Cronenworth slots in at first and second base for $4,200/$2,800, he is slashing .215/.337/.393 with five home runs and two stolen bases while creating runs five percent better than average as one of the team’s less superhuman players. Xander Bogaerts and Juan Soto are major stars with huge ceilings on any slate. Bogaerts checks in with a 7.74 in our home run model, he has seven so far this season and has added four stolen bases while creating runs 20% better than average, the price is too cheap for the shortstop’s upside. Soto has hit nine home runs and stolen four bases in 211 plate appearances while creating runs 50% better than average. The star outfielder has been walking at a 19.9% clip so far this season, setting the pace for a lineup that mostly features double-digit walk rates, and he mashes when he connects with a 15.4% barrel rate and 58.5% hard-hit rate for the season. Matt Carpenter is cheap but he has been back to Earth this season with just four home runs, but he does have a .204 ISO with a 109 WRC+ and a 15% barrel rate but just a 30% hard-hit rate. Ha-Seong Kim slots in with multi-position eligibility at fair prices, he has four home runs and six stolen bases for a cheap price. Rougned Odor, Trent Grisham, and Brett Sullivan slot in as the projected final third of the lineup. They have WRC+ marks of 69, 93, and 51 over 67, 175, and 38 plate appearances. with an average .190 batting average and six total home runs. The group is not great but they are mix-and-match pieces when creating stacks of Padres.
The Nationals are a low-end lineup in most matchups, but they do fare better against lefties as we have focused on a few times in this space to varying degrees of success this season. The Padres have southpaw Ryan Weathers on the hill tonight, he has made four starts and thrown 23.2 innings with a 3.42 ERA and 5.19 xFIP, and just 15.2% strikeouts. The lefty made three early starts then had two appearances out of the bullpen, then missed about 20 days while stretching out in AAA before coming back for a 5.2-inning start in which he struck out three and walked four while allowing four earned runs on three hits including a home run. The lefty has a bit of upside beyond what we have seen on the mound so far in his overall stat line, he projects in the middle of a short pitching board tonight and is a viable option at $7,000/$6,100. The FanDuel price is particularly interesting for a pitcher who seems at least likely to chase a win bonus if not a quality start. The Nationals lineup is playable, particularly with their positive production against lefties, but they remain not great. The team has an 11th-ranked 115 WRC+ against southpaws this year but just a .145 ISO that sits a more realistic 22nd out of 30 teams. The projected Nationals lineup opens with Lane Thomas who is slashing .294/.347/.461 with a .167 ISO and 120 WRC+ as the team’s best hitter, he has a 186 WRC+ and .264 ISO with four home runs while slashing .358/.433/.623 in 60 plate appearances against lefties this season. Luis Garcia is slashing .261/.306/.363 with three home runs and an 82 WRC+ overall, he has a 110 WRC+ in 45 plate appearances against lefties. Joey Meneses has two home runs and is up to .295/.323/.389 with a 94 WRC+, but he has actually scuffled badly against lefties this year with just a .100 ISO and 90 WRC+ in 63 opportunities. Jeimer Candelario has been bad against lefties for most of his career, he has a 77 WRC+ in 58 chances in the split with a .074 ISO this season. Catcher Keibert Ruiz has a 67 WRC+ against lefties in 49 plate appearances in 2023, he has just a .116 ISO in the split and a .124 mark overall in 169 disappointing plate appearances. Dominic Smith hits from the left side and has entirely lacked power this season with a .036 ISO and one home run in 189 plate appearances. While one would assume his ISO could go no lower, Smith has a .018 in 60 plate appearances against lefties this year, but he has managed to create runs six percent better than average. Right-handed outfielder Alex Call is cheap at $2,400/$2,700, he has three home runs with a .106 ISO in 185 plate appearances this season and a 5.7% barrel rate with a 34.4% hard-hit rate. Against lefties, Call has a .146 ISO and 120 WRC+, like most of the team he has not hit for much power in the split, but he does succeed more often against lefties than against righties. CJ Abrams rounds out the projected lineup with five home runs and five steals in 164 plate appearances, he costs just $2,700/$2,800 at shortstop but has just a 66 WRC+ against lefties this year. If Michael Chavis plays, he has success historically in the split but he has not been good so far this season.
Play: Padres bats/stacks, limited Ryan Weathers value shares, low-end Nationals in small doses with a focus on the few players who have been good against lefties.
Update Notes: the confirmed Nationals lineup includes Stone Garrett who we missed in the projected lineup and who has good power potential against the lefty, he is carrying a 7.42 in our home run model and has a 54.7% hard-hit rate in 88 total plate appearances this year. The lineup looks otherwise as expected. the Padres have the expected batting order.
Los Angeles Dodgers (+102/4.72) @ Atlanta Braves (-111/4.89)
Braves starter Bryce Elder takes the mound for $9,600/$10,100 tonight with a 21.3% strikeout rate across 52.1 innings in nine starts this season. Elder has been mostly good this year, pitching to a 2.06 ERA and 3.60 xFIP with a 10.4% swinging-strike rate and 1.15 WHIP. In 54 innings and nine starts in 2022, the righty was mostly similar, he had a 3.17 ERA and 4.16 xFIP with a 9.9% swinging-strike rate and 26.2% CSW%. The primary change year-over-year is in the contact profile, which has actually been worse in this year’s sample. In 2022, Elder gave up just a 1.76% home run rate on 34.4% hard hits and 88.2 mph of average exit velocity, with a 5.8% barrel rate. This season barrels have gone up to 8.1% while hard hits and exit velocity have exploded to 49.3% and 91.3 mph. Elder has managed to keep home runs in check with a 6.8-degree average launch angle allowed, his home run mark has actually dropped to 1.42% despite the uptick in premium contact, he has been better this season at inducing ground balls and keeping launch angle down, which is the critical factor for allowing home runs. The righty is not a major force for strikeouts but he has the talent to pitch deep into a game and find a few against the average team, the issue tonight is that he will be facing the elite Dodgers lineup. While it would not be totally surprising to see Elder succeed tonight, it is difficult to recommend him and he does not project well in our pitching model. The Dodgers’ run total is a respectable 4.72, but with Elder’s ability to limit home runs there seems to be a wide lane for a game that lands somewhere in the middle, with a bit of production but no ceiling scores in the lineup, and an OK but not slate-winning pitching score on the mound. The Dodgers are in play, but they rate a few places down the board when ranking stacks tonight. Mookie Betts has created runs 39% better than average with 10 home runs and a .257 ISO, he is always playable and he still has eligibility at second base at a cheap price on FanDuel. Freddie Freeman is slashing .327/.399/.563 with a .236 ISO and has created runs 58% better than average in his 228 plate appearances. Both stars are priced under the $6,000 mark on DraftKings, which is probably a discount for their talents on a daily basis. Catcher Will Smith is a third straight star in the loaded lineup, he has excelled in 143 plate appearances this year with seven home runs, a .241 ISO, and a 159 WRC+. Smith has struck out at just an 8.4% rate with a 14.7% walk rate and he is slashing .310/.406/.522. The backstop is an excellent option at $5,400 on DraftKings and he can be played like another star first baseman on FanDuel at $4,300. Max Muncy is cheap for his power ceiling, but Elder has even this slugger somewhat in check with just a 6.56 in our home run model. Muncy has a .309 ISO and 15 home runs this season. JD Martinez has a monster .313 ISO with nine home runs and he has created runs 32% better than average, rumors of his demise were apparently extremely exaggerated. Martinez has an 18.8% barrel rate and 52.1% hard-hit rate for the season in 147 plate appearances but he costs just $4,700/$3,600 tonight. David Peralta costs $2,400 on both sites, he is slashing just .207/.250/.324 with a 56 WRC+ in 120 plate appearances. Miguel Vargas has been seven percent better than average for run creation with four home runs in 179 plate appearances. James Outman has hit nine home runs in 186 plate appearances with a .252 ISO and an 11.9% barrel rate, he costs just $4,000/$3,000 from the eighth spot in the projected lineup. Outman is the most playable bat in the bottom third, but again the home run upside against Elder is not massive, he has just a 3.64 in our home run model. Miguel Rojas rounds out the projected lineup with a 42 WRC+ and .043 ISO in his 98 plate appearances this season.
The Braves will be facing righty Tony Gonsolin who is a roughly league-average pitcher with an upside for more on the right night. Gonsolin has a 20% strikeout rate with a 9.5% walk rate and 0.92 WHIP in 24 innings and five starts this season. The righty has pitched to a sterling 1.13 ERA with a much more telling 4.82 xFIP in the small sample. He has only pitched in the sixth inning once this season, but that is partly due to management of his pitch count in his early outings as he came back from injury. Gonsolin has been good in the past, he had a 27.2% strikeout rate in 13 starts and 55.2 innings in 2021 and a 23.9% mark with a 2.14 ERA and 3.70 xFIP in 24 starts and 130.1 innings last year. At $8,500/$9,000 with a bit of potential for strikeouts, Gonsolin would not be entirely off the table, he is a better option on the DraftKings slate at a fair price and without the need to reach a quality start bonus. Overall, the righty projects only in the lower-middle portion of the board, and there are probably better options at similar or lower prices than tangling with a Braves lineup that is carrying nearly a 5-run implied total. Braves hitters are more in play. Ronald Acuna Jr. doesn’t need a good matchup to post a monster game, he is slashing .337/427/.588 with a .251 ISO and 11 home runs. Acuna has produced a 16.6% barrel rate and 54.8% hard-hit rate while striking out just 14.2% of the time and stealing 20 bases in just 218 plate appearances, he is as elite as elite gets. Matt Olson has 13 home runs and a .283 ISO for the season, his 21.6% barrel rate leads the hard-hitting club, as does his 55% hard-hit rate. Olson has created runs 36% better than average this season, which puts him between Acuna, who has been 72% ahead of the curve, and catcher Sean Murphy who has a 157 WRC+ in 171 opportunities. Murphy has been raking this season, he has a .275 ISO with 10 home runs and a .275/.398/.549 triple-slash. Austin Riley has seven home runs with a .158 ISO and 43.5% hard-hit rate for the year, he is priced down to $4,900/$2,900 at third base while mired in a slump, but he has shown a bit of life recently and is a good buy at the price. Eddie Rosario and Marcell Ozuna bookend star second baseman Ozzie Albies with veteran power. Rosario has five home runs and a .171 ISO with an 8.6% barrel rate and is never expensive or popular, Ozuna has hit eight home runs and is now up to .208/.301/.433 with a .225 ISO. Albies is still the focus in the later part of the lineup, the second baseman has 10 home runs with a .225 ISO and a 10.3% barrel rate and is positionally valuable for just $4,700/$3,200. Orlando Arcia costs just $3,700/$3,000 as another value play with good positioning. The underrated infielder is slashing .319/.373/.521 with a .202 ISO and four home runs in 102 plate appearances, he has three-position eligibility in the infield on the blue site. Michael Harris II should be back in the lineup, he is in a long slump following his injury but he was a star as a rookie last year and he comes very cheap for his power and speed potential at just $3,300/$2,700.
Play: Braves bats/stacks, Dodgers bats/stacks
Update Notes: the Dodgers will have Jason Heyward in the lineup on back-to-back nights, the veteran outfielder has been mostly mashing in 2023, he has a .227/.343/.477 triple-slash with a .250 ISO and 125 WRC+ with five home runs in 108 plate appearances. Heyward is in for Outman, with Chris Taylor also in the lineup hitting ninth instead of Rojas. The Braves are giving Murphy the night off, with highly capable Travis d’Arnaud taking his spot and hitting cleanup between Riley and Rosario. d’Arnaud hit 18 home runs in 426 plate appearances last year, he has one in 53 plate appearances this year and is a good option on both sites at $3,900/$2,500. The rest of the Braves’ lineup runs as expected.
Detroit Tigers (+105/4.19) @ Kansas City Royals (-114/4.40)
The midwestern matchup between the Tigers and Royals rolls on with two middling implied team totals and two low-end starting pitchers on the mound to face two mediocre lineups. When choosing sides in this one, the home team’s lineup is certainly the more talented of the two and they are facing a targetable pitcher as the favored option in Vegas. Neither pitcher offers much appeal, home starter Zack Greinke has just a 16.7% strikeout rate over 10 starts and 52.1 innings. He does provide depth of start in most outings, and his team should give him a chance to chase a win bonus for just $5,700/$7,000, but there is truly limited upside with the veteran righty on a day with a lot of similarly poor cheap pitching options. Greinke had a 12.5% strikeout rate and a 3.68 ERA with a 4.54 xFIP last season, his ERA this year is 4.82 with a 4.20 xFIP and he has been typically reliable at limiting opportunities by keeping walks in check. The Tigers’ lousy lineup can be utilized against Greinke as a value option, but the play may not be as good as it seems on the surface. While Grienke can be pretty reliable to cough up a few runs and even some power, he has allowed more than four runs just once this season and only did so three times in 26 starts last year. With a bad list of options in the lineup and a fairly deep slate for hitting, spending shares on low-end Tigers may be unnecessary. Zach McKinstry is a lefty in the leadoff role, he would be on the list of playable hitters from this team if one opts to look in their direction. McKinstry has hit three home runs and stolen six bases in 125 chances this year. Riley Greene is the team’s best hitter right now, he is slashing .287/.345/.410 with a 113 WRC+ in 194 plate appearances, with four home runs and five stolen bases. Javier Baez and Spencer Torkelson have both been mostly bad this season, they have a combined seven home runs and check in with WRC+ marks of 79 and 81 respectively. Nick Maton is another interesting lefty who costs just $2,700/$2,300 at third base on DraftKings with added eligibility at second base on FanDuel. Maton has five home runs with a .168 ISO but he is slashing just .168/.286/.336 this year. A 10.6% barrel rate and 13.6% walk rate support the notion of cheap quality. Matt Vierling has four home runs and four stolen bases in 147 plate appearances, Andy Ibanez has just one home run and a 43 WRC+ in 72 opportunities, and Akil Baddoo has just one home run and four stolen bases with a .090 ISO but has climbed to a 99 WRC+ in 117 opportunities. Eric Haase is the most interesting option late in the projected lineup, his lurking power could flash with the contact that will be available against Greinke. He has two home runs with just a 3.6% barrel rate this year though, which is a big dip from the hitter who blasted 14 home runs in 341 opportunities last year and 22 in 381 chances the year before.
The Royals are facing targetable lefty Matthew Boyd, who has just enough of a record for strikeouts in his career that he is pulling in a respectable-enough projection against the free-swinging Kansas City club. The Royals active roster does not have a bad strikeout rate against lefties overall this season but it will very much depend on who lands in the confirmed lineup later in the afternoon. Boyd has just a 19.8% strikeout rate in eight starts and 37.2 innings this season, he put up a 19.9% rate in 78.2 innings and 15 starts in 2021 and had a 24.5% mark in just 13.1 innings of relief work last year. Boyd has not been awful for premium contact so far in 2023, he has just a 6.8% barrel rate and 32.5% hard-hit rate with 88.2 mph of average exit velocity allowed so far, but a 3.59% home run rate. He also has a 6.21 ERA and 5.26 xFIP with a 9.6% walk rate, it hasn’t been pretty. Still, there is a touch of upside for a value-based play at $7,400/$7,100. This is not an option on which to get carried away with a ton of shares, but Boyd is not the worst pitcher, or even the worst lefty, available on tonight’s slate, which puts him in the pool. The projected Royals lineup has Nick Pratto leading off with eligibility at first base or in the outfield for $3,000 on both sites. Pratto has a pair of home runs with a 137 WRC+ in his 98 plate appearances but has struck out at a 31.6% clip. Sal Perez lands second against the lefty, he has a significant ceiling for power and is pulling in a 12.02 in our home run model tonight. The excellent backstop has hit 11 home runs and has a .251 ISO in 190 plate appearances this season. Vinnie Pasquantino is one of the better hitters on the Royals this year, he has a .219 ISO with nine home runs while striking out just 12.9% of the time and walking at a 10.5% clip. Pasquantino has a 44.3% hard-hit rate but could stand to improve his barrel rate from 8.2%, which would make his home run potential skyrocket. The first baseman is cheap for someone who puts the ball in play with authority on a regular basis at just $4,100/$3,100. Bobby Witt Jr. lands in the cleanup role but there is a chance he could flip back to leadoff against a lefty with left-handed Pratto moving out of that spot. Witt needs to get in gear, he has seven home runs and 14 stolen bases but just a 78 WRC+ and .227/.266/.404 triple-slash for the season. MJ Melendez has four home runs and a 73 WRC+ with a .145 ISO despite a significant 13.1% barrel rate and 56.1% hard hits, there is significant power lurking if he can manage to make more frequent contact but he is striking out at a 32.3% pace this season. Edward Olivares is cheap at $2,900/$2,800 in the outfield, he has mid-range power and speed upside for the price. Maikel Garcia is slashing .262/.324/.338 in 74 plate appearances and has multi-position eligibility at second base and third base on DraftKings for just $2,500 while hitting on the right side of the plate. Matt Duffy and Nate Eaton are a pair of righties to close out the lineup, Duffy is the better of the two, he has one home run and a 117 WRC+ in 66 plate appearances this year but he has never fully connected at the MLB level.
Play: Royals stacks/bats, Matthew Boyd value, low-end Greinke innings and a win value as an SP2 on a short slate… maybe.
Update Notes: the Royals threw a curveball with a lineup that sees Duffy move up to the leadoff role with Pratto sliding down to hit cleanup between Witt and Olivares, Perez gets the night off in a ding to the overall quality of the Royals stack, and the bottom of the lineup runs Freddy Fermin–Jackie Bradley Jr.-Garcia. The Tigers lineup runs McKinstry-Baez-Greene-Torkelson-Vierling-Baddoo-Ibanez-Jonathan Schoop-Haase, Schoop is only of minor appeal when stacking Tigers at the minimum price.
New York Mets (-102/3.52) @ Chicago Cubs (-106/3.57)
There are significant winds blowing in toward home plate in Chicago tonight which is having a major impact on this game’s run total, a slate-low 6.5. This is reflected somewhat in the power projections for both teams, and the visiting Mets check in with just a 3.27-run implied total against righty Marcus Stroman who is typically very good at checking home runs and power even without a 16 mph headwind helping him. Stroman has been good in 2023, he has a 3.05 ERA and 3.64 xFIP with a 22.5% strikeout rate over 10 starts and 56 innings. The righty is typically a better real-life pitcher but he is viable in this spot with an all-but-eliminated home run upside for the Mets. Stroman has kept launch angles to just 4.8 degrees this year with a 3.2% barrel rate and 1.76% hard-hit rate, with the wind at his back he is unlikely to allow a dinger tonight, even with Pete Alonso lurking for New York. Alonso has a league-leading 18 home runs with a .311 ISO, an 18.8% barrel rate, and a 43.5% hard-hit rate that is surprisingly not higher. Alonso is cheap for his talent at just $5,200/$3,900, but this is not a great spot for hitting or stacking tonight. Brandon Nimmo is a very good leadoff hitter who could get involved and create runs without the advantage of power, he has a 131 WRC+ and .381 on-base percentage while striking out just 18.5% of the time and walking at a 10.2% clip. Francisco Lindor has not been as good at getting involved, his WRC+ sits just six percent above average and his on-base percentage is .310. The star shortstop has been more involved of late, he has seven home runs and a .189 ISO and both totals will climb, and he remains cheap, but the spot is bad across the board. Lindor should be in most stacks of Mets hitters when selecting this option. Jeff McNeil is another player who does not feature power anyway, so he could be involved in any scoring the Mets manage tonight. McNeil has created runs 13% better than average while slashing .287/.367/.368, a few weak base hits could be all he needs, but a slate-breaking score is unlikely. Brett Baty hits fifth in the projected lineup, like his teammates his power marks are capped tonight but he could be involved with a productive hit tool. Starling Marte has been bad for most of this season but he has speed at a cheap price if he gets on base. Daniel Vogelbach costs $2,100/$2,500 but this is not a great night for a slugging platoon player. Mark Canha and Francisco Alvarez round out the projected lineup, the Mets are not a premium stack tonight.
The Cubs have the same handicap in this matchup, the extreme wind blowing in is simply closing out most opportunities for a home run, though the home team is flashing more power against Mets righty Kodai Senga. The first-year MLB starter has been a roller coaster this season. Senga has a 3.77 ERA and 3.84 xFIP over eight starts and 43 innings in his debut MLB season. His 29.4% strikeout rate is elite, but his 13.9% walk rate is horrendous and has him in unreliable territory on the whole. Senga has allowed a bit of power with a 7.5% barrel rate which is fine but also a 39.6% hard-hit rate which is a bit higher than we would like for a flyball pitcher, and he has given up a 3.21% home run rate but allowed just 88.2 mph of average exit velocity. Senga is ultimately not easy to square up, he has a very nice 11.9% swinging-strike rate and 30.2% CSW%, if he can harness walks as the season rolls on he will take a big step forward. The righty is playable against a free-swinging Cubs team that will struggle for power in the conditions, he costs just $9,200/$9,600 which is a nice price for his strikeout potential and the safety net. There are plenty of options in the Cubs lineup who say wind be damned and decide to stack. Leadoff man Nico Hoerner is a good option to cut through the breeze with his hit tool and the frequency with which he puts the ball in play and gets on base. Hoerner has 12 stolen bases this season and has created runs two percent better than average at second base. Dansby Swanson has not hit for much power this season, he has four home runs despite a 12.7% barrel rate but he has been a productive run creator with a 118 WRC+ and he costs just $4,500/$3,100 at shortstop. Ian Happ is similarly cheap at $4,200/$3,000 in the outfield. Happ matches Swanson with four home runs and four stolen bases but outpaces his teammate with a 135 WRC+ in 204 opportunities. The run-creation mark actually matches that of cleanup hitter Seiya Suzuki who has been highly productive over 146 plate appearances. Suzuki is also affordable at just $4,100/$3,100. Christopher Morel has been the best 12 players in baseball over his 52 plate appearances this season. The righty has an absurd nine home runs after hitting another one last night, which makes nine home runs in 12 games played this season. At this pace, Morel would finish the season with approximately all the home runs. At just $4,900 with second base and outfield eligibility on DraftKings, Morel seems destined for popularity regardless of the hitting conditions, he is a bit of a tougher buy at third base or in the outfield for $4,600 on FanDuel, but it is certainly doable with the cheap pitching and some nice discounts on his teammates in stacks. Mike Tacuhman is a surprising name to see in a lineup in 2023, but here we are. The outfielder has made 10 moderately productive plate appearances so far, he is a very low-end option tonight. Patrick Wisdom and Matt Mervis rate well for power in our model, but the headwind is not as strong a factor as it is in Vegas numbers. Wisdom has 12 home runs this season in 161 plate appearances, Mervis has two in 55 opportunities since his callup, but they seem like less-viable options in these conditions. Tucker Barnhart slots in at catcher for a cheap price in a bad spot.
Play: Marcus Stroman, Kodai Senga
Update Notes: the run total in Vegas is up a half-run to 7.0, in still-lousy hitting conditions. the Mets lineup runs as projected. the Cubs have some changes, Miles Mastrobuoni slots in second, with Swanson-Happ-Suzuki moving down to 3-4-5 ahead of Tacuhman-Morel-Mevis-Barnhart. Wisdom gets the day off in a big hit to the team’s already reduced (by wind) power potential tonight.
Miami Marlins (-157/5.90) @ Colorado Rockies (+144/4.72)
Low-end righty Karl Kauffmann is not an overly appealing MLB DFS option in a Coors Field start, even at $5,0o0/$5,600. Kauffmann has made one start and thrown 4.1 innings and he did induce a highly effective 14.1% swinging-strike rate in the outing, but he is not a highly-regarded prospect and he has pitched to mid-fives xFIP marks over the last few seasons in the minors. The Marlins bats are an obvious option that will be popular in this spot, the favored visiting club has a slate-leading 6.18-run implied team total and they project strongly at cheap prices. The projected lineup opens with Jon Berti, who has two home runs and seven steals in 154 plate appearances while creating runs six percent below average. Berti stole 41 bases in 404 plate appearances last season while getting on at a .324 clip, he is an aggressive baserunner who is a viable correlated scoring piece but he will be very popular atop this lineup. Jorge Soler is one of the slate leaders at a 14.94 in our home run model, he is projected to hit third behind (thank you!) Luis Arraez, who is an excellent option to get on base ahead of the slugger. Arraez is slashing .371/.424/.461 with a 143 WRC+ while Soler has a .280 ISO and 128 WRC+ with 13 home runs on the board, the pair go together very nicely at affordable prices. Garrett Cooper has an 8.15 in the home run model, he has hit four this season and had just nine last year in 469 plate appearances, matching his output in 250 opportunities from the year before. Cooper is a mid-range option who will probably be more popular than his talents warrant. Bryan De La Cruz is a good hitter who has five home runs and a 120 WRC+ in 173 plate appearances, he is a strong option in this ballpark and matchup tonight for just $4,000/$3,300. Jean Segura has been lousy this season, he has 39 WRC+ in 158 plate appearances. Joey Wendle stole 12 bases last year, he could be a potential correlated scoring and value option late in the lineup but Xavier Edwards would be more interesting than either Wendle or Garrett Hampson, who is projected to hit ninth. Jacob Stallings has zero home runs in 79 plate appearances with a .042 ISO and a WRC+ that sits at four (4). Stallings is cheap for $2,500 where catchers are necessary and this is Coors Field, but wow, four?!
The big question looming over tonight’s slate is what the hell do we do with Marlins’ pitcher Sandy Alcantara in a Coors Field start? Alcantara has been struggling to find his form through nine starts this season. He has thrown 57 innings and has a 5.05 ERA with a 3.98 xFIP and just a 22.6% strikeout rate while walking 7.1% with a 1.23 WHIP, everything in that line has gotten worse year-over-year. The righty has actually boosted his swinging-strike rate from 12.2% last year to 14.1% this year with a similar CSW%, but his increase in walks and decrease in overall quality have not been worth the tradeoff to this point. Over 228.2 innings in 32 starts last year, Alcantara posted a Cy Young Award-winning 2.28 ERA and 3.29 xFIP with a 0.98 WHIP while striking out 23.4% and allowing just a 1.81% home run rate with a 5.2% barrel rate and 38.5% hard hits, the latter two marks have increased slightly this season with home runs climbing in a statistical blip to 2.09%. The Marlins ace is priced way down in this start, he costs just $8,300/$8,900 against one of the worst lineups in baseball. Colorado’s active roster has an 88 WRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, they are not a good team and Alcantara is elite when he is going right. There is a bit of weather in the area tonight, but concerns for delay are minimal, Alcantara seems likely to be under-owned across the industry tonight and, as tournament darts in Coors Field starts go, one could not ask for a much better option than last year’s best starter at a $2,000 discount and low ownership against a terrible team. Of course, this is Coors Field and Alcantara has not been himself, so grab a few shares of Rockies bats too, and hang on tight. Charlie Blackmon can put the ball in play and get involved in scoring, he has a 102 WRC+ but just a .144 ISO and three home runs in 187 plate appearances. Jurickson Profar has five home runs and a .159 ISO but just an 89 WRC+ in a role atop the lineup, this is not a good situation but the Rockies continue to roll Profar out there, so MLB DFS gamers can continue to use him in the hopes of infrequent power or correlated scoring coming through. Kris Bryant should be back in the lineup after a day off, he has five home runs and a 102 WRC+ with a good-not-great triple-slash this season but needs to do more at the plate. Catcher Elias Diaz is a value at $5,100/$3,200, he is slashing .345/.400/.504 with a 133 WRC+ to lead this team, but the matchup is not great against this starter. Ryan McMahon has left-handed power with a 12.1% barrel rate and 48.6% hard-hit rate overall this season. Harold Castro also hits from the left side but not quite as hard, he has a 1.94% barrel rate and 29.6% hard hits in 90 opportunities this year. Brenton Doyle and Michael Toglia are interesting young hitters late in this lineup for cheap prices and what will probably be low ownership, but it seems likely that they will be a bit overmatched against a starter with some of the most elite stuff in the game. Ezequiel Tovar rounds out the lineup, he has a 51 WRC+ in 164 plate appearances this season.
Play: Sandy Alcantara, bats on both sides
Update Notes: the run-total in Vegas is down a half-run to 10.5. the Rockies are using the same lineup that was written up originally. the Marlins are going with a Berti-Soler-Arraez-Cooper-De La Cruz-Yuli Gurriel-Wendle-Stallings-Jonathan Davis configuration. Davis is a low-end option who has one home run in about 194 plate appearances. Gurriel has not done much but won a batting title two years ago, he is more viable in the heart of the lineup in Coors.
Boston Red Sox (-113/4.65) @ Los Angeles Angels (+104/4.45)
Angels starter Tyler Anderson is pushing the Vegas line slightly in favor of the visiting Red Sox, in a matchup of two veteran southpaws that could go pear-shaped and change a slate late in the evening. Anderson has allowed a 3.55% home run rate this season despite just 31.5% hard hits and a 7.5% barrel rate with only 86.5 mph of average exit velocity. The starter allows too much contact overall, he has just a 13.7% strikeout rate despite a 10.5% swinging-strike rate in his 42.2 innings and eight starts. His 10.7% walk rate and 1.62 WHIP go a long way toward explaining his 5.27 ERA and 6.25 xFIP. Anderson was better last year posting a 19.5% strikeout rate and 2.57 ERA with a 4.11 xFIP, but that pitcher has not shown up often this season. The Red Sox lineup is not entirely elite, but Rafael Devers is a star while Alex Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida are at worst very interesting options on most slates. Verdugo leads off in the projected lineup for $4,700/$3,500, he has created runs 21% better than average with a solid triple-slash and a mid-range power bat. Veteran Justin Turner slots in second, with journeyman Rob Refsnyder projected to once again be miscast as a three-hitter in this lineup. Turner is a former star who still has a sturdy hit tool and an ability to limit strikeouts while getting involved in run creation. The infielder has made 200 plate appearances and has created runs 11% better than average while hitting five home runs and striking out at just a 15.5% pace. Refsnyder is slashing .275/.398/.377 with a 120 WRC+ and a .101 ISO with one home run and one stolen base, he is cheap and hits in this spot against lefties based on solid but unspectacular numbers in the split in recent seasons but small samples. Devers and Yoshida land fourth and fifth in the projected lineup, the cleanup hitter has 13 home runs and costs $5,900/$3,700 as a good buy at third base, though his numbers dip in same-handed matchups to some degree. Yoshida costs $5,700/$3,800, he has six home runs and a 134 WRC+ and has become a quick star in Boston. Enrique Hernandez is a veteran righty who has not produced much this season, Pablo Reyes adds another righty bat in the infield late in the lineup, and Connor Wong is a stout catcher with an 8.7% barrel rate and 42% hard-hit rate for $2,600/$2,500 who has four home runs and a .198 ISO in 109 plate appearances. Jarren Duran is the lone lefty in the bottom third of the lineup, he has been hitting well in 129 plate appearances but he has just an 84 WRC+ while slashing .269/.333/.346 in 30 same-handed plate appearances this season.
Veteran lefty James Paxton has been surprisingly good in his return to action after missing all of 2022 and throwing a total of 21.2 innings since 2019. In his first outing, Paxton struck out a stunning nine Cardinals hitters while allowing two earned runs with a home run in five innings. In his second start, he went six innings and struck out five Padres while allowing one earned run on five hits including a home run. Despite the good performances, Paxton has allowed a 91.3 mph average exit velocity and an 11.1% barrel rate and is playing into the massive power on display in the Angels lineup. At $8,900/$10,400 Paxton is a different play from site to site, he is more valuable on the DraftKings slate but should be less popular at the high price on FanDuel. It is difficult to put full faith in the veteran in this matchup, but he has taken two big steps toward earning some faith, and he projections in the middle of the pitching board in our model, making him a viable SP2. The Angels have had Mickey Moniak in the leadoff spot with Taylor Ward taking a seat the last two nights, it will be interesting to see what happens with the left-handed outfielder tonight against same-handed pitching. Ward hits from the right side of the plate and will probably land back in the leadoff spot, there is also a path to both players being in the lineup. Moniak has been on fire over 32 plate appearances since his callup, the former first-overall pick hit another home run last night and now has four with a pair of stolen bases, yet he still costs the minimum on FanDuel and just $2,800 on DraftKings ahead of the team’s power core. If we insert Moniak into the leadoff role, he pulls in an 11.83 in our home run model. Ward slots into the same spot with an 8.50, he has scuffled through most of 2023 and has lost his full-time job. The outfielder is slashing .231/.306/.329 with a .098 ISO and 77 WRC+ and has hit four home runs. Mike Trout has 11 home runs with a .242 ISO and 142 WRC+ over 205 plate appearances, and Shohei Ohtani has 11 home runs with a .243 ISO and 138 WRC+, so they’re pretty good at this. Trout leads the team with a 15.22 in our home run model while Ohtani lands at 14.10 and Hunter Renfroe falls behind them in the fifth spot in the lineup with a 13.54. Renfroe is one off the pace of his superstar teammates with 10 home runs and a .213 ISO with a 112 WRC+ and he comes at nearly $2,000 less in salary on DraftKings and $800 less than both stars on FanDuel. Brandon Drury has seven home runs with a .216 ISO, adding yet another sturdy right-handed home run hitter to the lineup against the lefty who has allowed exploitable contact since his return. Drury has a 12.2% barrel rate and 45.2% hard-hit rate for the season and a 9.15 in our home run model. Gio Urshela has been creating runs 13% below average and he has one home run with a .303/.322/.358 triple-slash, he has a weak 3.84 in our home run model. Luis Rengifo has a 4.93 in the model, he has hit two home runs but has not been great at the plate this season after mashing 17 in 511 plate appearances last year. Chad Wallach and Zach Neto close out the projected lineup, Wallach has hit three home runs in 47 plate appearances and has a 17.2% barrel rate with a .217 ISO, he is pulling a surprising 8.08 in our home run model and could be a sneaky-good catcher play if he is in the lineup. Neto lands at 4.36, the rookie has a highly regarded hit tool and is coming around somewhat with a .248/.319/.364 triple-slash and two home runs.
Play: Angels bats/stacks, Red Sox bats/stacks, if you believe in Paxton go for it.
Update Notes: Ward returns to the top of the Angels lineup, followed by Trout-Ohtani-Renfroe-Drury-Urshela-Rengifo-Wallach-Neto. Verdugo gets a night off for Boston with Refsnyder in the leadoff role ahead of Turner-Yoshida-Devers-Hernandez-Reyes-Wong (small bump)-Raimel Tapia-Duran. Tapia is a cheap outfielder who will go under-owned in this stack at $2,100/$2,500, he has moderate power and speed and has a homer with five stolen bases on the board in 73 plate appearances this season.
Oakland Athletics (+248/3.21) @ Seattle Mariners (-279/5.42)
The Athletics are 24th in baseball with an 89 WRC+ against right-handed pitching as a group this season. The low-end squad from Oakland has a .144 ISO in the split with an aggressively high 25.4% strikeout rate that is aligning rather nicely with the upside for treasured Mariners prospect pitcher Bryce Miller who dominated this team with 10 strikeouts in six innings in his MLB debut three weeks ago. Miller has made four total starts and he has been as good as advertised, pitching to a 25% strikeout rate with just a 2.3% walk rate and a ridiculous 0.51 WHIP to go with his sparkling 1.42 ERA, his 3.80 xFIP is probably a bit more realistic in the long term. The righty has induced just a 9.1% swinging-strike rate with a 24.9% CSW% both marks that should improve for the highly-regarded pitcher who is known for excellent control and command in addition to premium stuff. Miller is very good and he arrived fully formed, he is the most expensive pitcher on the FanDuel slate at $10,900 and he costs $10,100 on DraftKings with a slate-leading projection in our pitching model. The young righty is likely to be excessively popular in this spot and, at some point, he will go pop for an evening and have a bad game, but odds are it will not be against this low-end lineup. Oakland hitters are a value-based option with a bit of upside for power, for all his quality Miller has allowed a 91.6 mph average exit velocity with a 9.4% barrel rate on a 23.6-degree average launch angle, but he is yet to yield a home run. Esteury Ruiz stole another base and is a quarter of the way to 100 for the season, his 109 WRC+ has some appeal along with the speed for just $3,300 but $3,500 on FanDuel seems a bit high. Ryan Noda hits from the left side, he has a touch of power with a 14.5% barrel rate and 44.9% hard-hit rate that has translated to four home runs and a .197 ISO in 153 plate appearances. Brent Rooker has a team-leading 15.24 in our home run model tonight, pushing him to nearly the top of the slate overall. The slugger is priced down to $3,800 on the DraftKings slate but still costs $3,700 on the FanDuel board. It is probably not time for a turnaround buy option like a plummeting frozen orange juice commodity stock in Trading Places, but Rooker could be the one to ruin Miller’s night with that level of premium contact allowed. Of course, he is always more likely to strike out three times, which is our preferred option for this player. Rooker-watch has him hovering at the Mendoza line for the month of May, he is slashing .200/.297/.338 with a .138 ISO and 85 WRC+ while striking out 33% of the time, with his last home run coming on May 12th and the only other one this month on May 5th. Seth Brown is the team’s true good power hitter, the lefty missed most of the season so far, he has one home run in 37 plate appearances. Last year he hit 25 in 555 chances and stole 11 bases to pad his MLB DFS stats. JJ Bleday has a bit of pop on the left side as well, he is slashing .235/.316/.471 with a .235 ISO and three home runs in 57 chances. Jace Peterson and Shea Langeliers have mid-range power in the middle of the order, Peterson is the lesser option, he hit eight home runs and stole 12 bags in 328 plate appearances last year and has three homers and four steals this season. Langeliers is the better bet, he fills catcher for just $3,000 on DraftKings and he has seven home runs with a .187 ISO this year. Tony Kemp and Nick Allen are cheap lousy options at the bottom of the lineup.
Update: Austin Pruitt will now open this game for the Athletics before handing off to what will almost definitely be Waldichuk in a bulk-relief role, though there are no stated guarantees. The Mariners are facing struggling Ken Waldichuk who has a 17.7% strikeout rate over 46 innings in nine starts. Waldichuk has allowed runs in all but one of his starts this season and he has not been as advertised for strikeout stuff at this level yet in 2023. The lefty has a 6.85 ERA and 5.80 xFIP with a 12.7% walk rate and 1.85 WHIP, he is allowing far too many opportunities and an unsustainable amount of premium contact. The lefty has coughed up a 5.91% home run rate on 10.7% barrels and a 16.2-degree average launch angle with 88.1 mph of average exit velocity. Waldichuk is not a strong option against the powerful and heavily right-handed Mariners lineup, the team’s 5.42-run implied team total is the second-highest mark outside of Coors Field tonight. Mariners bats are a very strong play against this pitcher, they can be stacked and used as one-offs across the industry and from almost top to bottom in the lineup. JP Crawford is a productive leadoff hitter but he struggles badly against same-handed pitching and may land in a different role or get the night off tonight. Crawford is slashing just .192/.263/.250 with a 50 WRC+ in 57 plate appearances against lefties but .245/.367/.351 with a 113 WRC+ overall. Ty France has a 109 WRC+ but just a .120 ISO and three home runs in his 208 plate appearances in a bit of a downturn after a productive 2022. He has still been a viable player and is cheap for MLB DFS purposes while rarely drawing a lot of popularity, he makes a good option tonight at $4,300/$2,800. Julio Rodriguez has been six percent worse than league average creating runs in 209 plate appearances this year which, to say the least, was unexpected from last year’s Rookie of the Year. Rodriguez has seven home runs and eight stolen bases, which is a plus, but his limited output has not been great for the high salaries. He has a 9.55 to lead the team in our home run model, and that mark is easily supported by a still-good 10.6% barrel rate and 50% hard hits, overall Rodriguez is worth owning in this matchup. Jarred Kelenic costs $4,600/$3,300 and could get skipped on a misperception of struggling against lefties, do not make that mistake, the outfielder has raked same-handed pitching this season and all of his previous year numbers were flawed against both hands. Kelenic is slashing .349/.378/.721 with a .372 ISO and 204 WRC+ with four of his 10 home runs in 45 plate appearances against fellow lefties this season and Waldichuk is worse than most of those lefties. Eugenio Suarez has a 7.10 in our home run model, he has five on the season but just a .111 ISO despite an 11.5% barrel rate and 46.7% hard hits, Suarez should come around for power and his struggles have rendered him cheap on both sites, he makes sense in stacks and is an interesting discount one-off if he is not overly popular. Cal Raleigh has significant power from the right side, the switch-hitting catcher has a 15.6% barrel rate and seven home runs overall, with a .286 ISO and 151 WRC+ as a righty against left-handed pitching, though it is worth noting that six of his seven home runs have been as a lefty against righties. Teoscar Hernandez has a 12.5% barrel rate and 48.3% hard-hit rate but has struck out in a whopping 34.5% of plate appearances which is a limiting factor for the otherwise excellent power-hitting outfielder. Hernandez has eight home runs on the season but an 89 WRC+ and .166 ISO overall. AJ Pollock and Jose Caballero are playable parts to round-out the projected lineup.
Play: Bryce Miller and Mariners bats/stacks aggressively
Update Notes: the Mariners lineup is as expected with Caballero and Pollock switching the 7/8 spots. Update: Austin Pruitt will now open this game for the Athletics before handing off to what will almost definitely be Waldichuk in a bulk-relief role, though there are no stated guarantees. the Athletics are giving Rooker a much-needed night off, Brown will hit third, Langeliers moves up to the cleanup spot and gets a bit of a bump for the improved role, Bleday-Ramon Laureano-Peterson follow, Nick Allen is out of the lineup with Aledmys Diaz hitting eighth and Kemp drops to ninth.
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