Tonight’s MLB DFS slate takes slightly different forms from site to site, with a six-game affair starting at 6:40 ET on FanDuel and a five-game slate getting underway at 7:05 on DraftKings. The split costs DraftKings gamers the chance to roster a good White Sox pitcher against the low-end Tigers, which is a nice bonus for the single-pitcher FanDuel slate on a night with limited options on the mound. The White Sox bats are also a reasonably good-looking play in their matchup, adding to the appeal of the blue site’s earlier slate tonight. The overall board has one outstanding opportunity for power with the Giants exploding through the top of the home run model against a pitcher who was last relevant four years ago. Mariners starter Logan Gilbert is likely to be extremely popular to close out the slate in a matchup against the Athletics, meaning we won’t have much idea of where things will land until late in the evening once again. Getting to at least the field’s level, or even beyond, with that option is a fine approach to the slate in a great matchup for the pitcher. Spreading out remaining shares across a few of the other more likely pitching options while taking a fairly broad approach to the selection of bats and stacks seems like the angle on which to attack this slate.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Summary – 5/25/23
Chicago White Sox (-147/4.42) @ Detroit Tigers (+135/3.67)
The White Sox have been on a 7-3 run over their last 10 games and are looking a bit more like the team that we expected, while still awaiting the return of star Eloy Jimenez from his latest malady. Chicago has been a letdown overall so far this season, the team ranks just 23rd in baseball with a 91 WRC+ against right-handed pitching, but Tigers starter Alex Faedo is not an overly imposing righty on the mound. Faedo has made three starts this season, pitching to a 4.60 ERA and 4.70 xFIP over 15.2 innings while striking out 19.7% and allowing five home runs, two in each of his first two games and one in his most recent outing. In 12 starts and 53.2 innings in 2022, the righty had a 5.53 ERA and 5.02 xFIP with a 9.8% barrel rate and 91.1 mph of average exit velocity. This is a highly targetable pitcher, even with a team that has not played up to its potential. The projected White Sox lineup opens in its usual fashion with star shortstop Tim Anderson, who missed a portion of the first quarter of the season with an injury. Anderson is slashing .244/.283/.282 with a .038 ISO and 57 WRC+ over 138 plate appearances this year, a major dip in productivity for someone who has regularly hit better than .300 while creating runs well above average. Anderson is priced down to just $2,800 on the FanDuel slate tonight, he is an excellent option to start a high-quality White Sox value stack. Andrew Benintendi costs $2,700, he has just a 3.06 in our home run model and zero dingers on the year, and he is slashing a limited .272/.330/.350 while creating runs 13% below average. Benintendi has been a far more valuable piece throughout his career, he got on base at a .373 clip and created runs 22% better than average across 521 plate appearances last year and has not completely lost those talents. Luis Robert Jr. has hit 13 home runs so far this season, he has been mashing at the plate with a 14.4% barrel rate, although his 38.6% hard-hit rate is lower than one would expect. Robert has a .284 ISO with a 138 WRC+ over his 201 plate appearances in a star-caliber breakout. Yoan Moncada is cheap at just $3,000, he has two home runs and a 111 WRC+ since returning to the lineup. Andrew Vaughn has hit five home runs while slashing .237/.319/.398 while creating runs exactly at league-average in 210 plate appearances. Lefty Gavin Sheets has power at the plate, he has hit six home runs in 119 plate appearances while creating runs six percent better than average in 119 plate appearances so far this season and he hit 15 in 410 plate appearances last year. Sheets has a 6.44 in our home run model with eligibility at first base and in the outfield for $2,700. Jake Burger has hit 10 home runs while slashing .250/.304/.615 with a .365 ISO while creating runs 44% better than average in 115 plate appearances over which he has struck out at a 33% pace while barreling 23.5% of his batted-ball events. Burger is certainly not as good as that run of productivity, he will crater like we have seen with other similarly profiled players, but at $3,100 at third base there is still some value against Faedo. Yasmani Grandal is getting on base at a .347 clip this season and creating runs 18% better than average, the catcher is playable but not a great option for $2,600 late in the lineup. Romy Gonzalez closes out the projected lineup with a .200/.212/.320 triple slash and 37 WRC+ in 52 plate appearances so far this year.
The low-end Tigers are facing Lucas Giolito who, while not pitching to peak form, has been generally fine over his first 10 starts and 59.2 innings in 2023. Giolito has a 24.4% strikeout rate with a 3.62 ERA and 4.19 xFIP for the season. The righty has had just one true clunker in his 10 outings, a seven-run mess on 12 hits in four innings against the Pirates way back on April 7th. Since then, Giolito has allowed four runs twice and has otherwise not allowed more than two. For the season, he has allowed a 3.25% home run rate on a 9.4% barrel rate and 35.9% hard hits with just 87.8 mph of average exit velocity. All of the pitcher’s numbers are roughly around the level to which he pitched last year, with a slight dip from his excellent 2021 performance. Giolito is one of the top options on the blue site tonight at $10,000, he can be utilized aggressively against the Tigers, baseball’s 26th-ranked team against righties with an 84 collective WRC+. The Tigers rank dead last in the split with a .112 ISO against righties this year, this is not a good baseball team. Detroit’s lineup, for those who want to use it, opens with Zach McKinstry, a lefty who has been one of the team’s more productive hitters. McKinstry has three home runs and six stolen bases with a 121 WRC+ in 130 plate appearances. Javier Baez has a 6.41 in our home run model but he has been lousy so far this season with just a 77 WRC+ and a .092 ISO with three home runs and three steals in 188 plate appearances. The veteran one-time star shortstop is just playing out the thread, he costs $2,900 if you want him. Riley Greene has been Detroit’s best bat over the first quarter of the season, he is slashing .291/.352/434 with a .143 ISO and 121 WRC+, adding five home runs and five stolen bases to his MLB DFS point-scoring tally. Spencer Torkelson costs just $2,800 at first base, a cheap price for the position but one that he may not even deserve. The righty has four home runs with a .131 ISO and 83 WRC+ this season, he has not been good at the plate but he does carry a somewhat hopeful not in premium contact with a 9.4% barrel rate and 48.6% hard hits. Nick Maton is another semi-capable lefty, he has five home runs but is slashing .167/.284/.333 with a 74 WRC+ in 148 plate appearances. Matt Vierling has four home runs and four stolen bases with a 90 WRC+, he is a mix-and-match piece if one is building numerous stacks of Tigers hitters. The same is true for Akil Baddoo who has mid-range power and speed, Miguel Cabrera is more of an afterthought however, the veteran has a .036 ISO with zero home runs and is slashing .181/.244/.217 in 90 plate appearances. Catcher Jake Rogers rounds out the projected lineup with five home runs in 97 plate appearances with a .221 ISO but he is slashing just .163/.258/.384 with a 78 WRC+. The Tigers offer non-threatening opposition and plenty of strikeout opportunities, this is a good spot for Giolito.
Play: Lucas Giolito, White Sox bats/stacks
Update Notes: the confirmed White Sox lineup runs as expected with the exception of Seby Zavala replacing Grandal at catcher and hitting ninth. The Tigers lineup runs as expected with Eric Haase in at catcher and hitting eighth instead of Jake Rogers.
Baltimore Orioles (+120/4.04) @ New York Yankees (-130/4.56)
DraftKings joins the fray with the start of the Orioles vs Yankees game in the Bronx. Baltimore will be facing Yankees righty Clarke Schmidt who has been pitching fairly well in some aspects while floundering in others. Schmidt has a 6.00 ERA but a 3.90 xFIP in 10 starts and 45 innings, which is somewhat telling of the problems. The righty has a good 26.1% strikeout rate and he does not give away many opportunities with just a 7.7% walk rate, but his 1.62 WHIP comes on the back of a 47.4% hard-hit rate and 91.4 mph of average exit velocity. He has given up an 11.1% barrel rate and 3.86% home run rate to this point in the season, and the premium contact has helped hitters to a .386 batting average on balls in play against Schmidt, which is the cause of his inflated WHIP. In a start on a warm day in Yankee Stadium, Schmidt will need to harness that premium contact or the ball will travel, he has the talent to get through the Orioles lineup and find strikeouts, and the price is right at just $8,100/$7,900. Schmidt is in play from the upper-middle of a very short pitching board on both sites, he is not overly likely to hit extreme popularity even with limited options, which enhances his appeal. The Orioles can be played back the other way against Schmidt’s contact profile in this ballpark. The team has been good to start the season and they have numerous capable options for MLB DFS point-scoring. Cedric Mullins costs $5,500/$3,900 with eight home runs and 13 stolen bases in the books already this season, The talented outfielder is an excellent correlated scoring option who can product counting stats all on his own as well, he is a strong buy atop the Orioles lineup. Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, and Ryan Mountcastle are the team’s power core from two through four in the lineup. Rutschman is an elite catcher for $4,900/$3,400, he can be played on both sites and perhaps does not get the attention he should warrant every time out on FanDuel slates. Santander has eight home runs and a .208 ISO with a 121 WRC+ in 199 plate appearances, the switch hitter will target the short porch in right for home run potential tonight. Ryan Mountcastle has 11 home runs with a .228 ISO and a tremendous 17.3% barrel rate, he is a premium power hitter who could easily get into one this evening. Adam Frazier hits from the left side, he is slashing .255/.335/.430 with a .174 ISO and six home runs on the season but he has never been a power hitter. Frazier has a 3.0% barrel rate and 26.7% hard-hit rate this year, he had a 1.5% barrel rate and 23.8% hard-hit rate for the season last year, hitting just three home runs and stealing 11 bases in 602 plate appearances. Frazier is a viable piece of the lineup for the frequency with which he puts the ball in play and gets involved, he has just a 9.5% strikeout rate this season, improving on an already impressive 12.1% from last year while bumping walks from 7.6% to 10.1%. Frazier costs just $2,800/$2,700, it would be a mistake to completely overlook him in Orioles stacks. Austin Hays has significant power from the right side, he has five home runs while slashing .308/.351/.484 over 171 plate appearances and he has a 12.8% barrel rate with a 44.4% hard-hit rate, the Orioles have a lot of power upside with their ability to connect squarely, if Schmidt continues to cough up hittable pitches it could be a long short evening for the righty. Gunnar Henderson has five home runs and a .184 ISO but he has not put the ball in play with enough frequency yet in his young career. The infielder has been valuable to the team by getting on base via walks, but his MLB DFS scoring has been mostly limited so far in his rookie year. Henderson is a major prospect who will hit, we want to be ahead of the curve when it happens, he should be included in some stacks of Orioles tonight. Terrin Vavra lands eighth with scuffling Jorge Mateo hitting ninth in the projected lineup, Mateo has cooled significantly after a white-hot start, but his skillset is such that production can come roaring back on any given slate.
The Yankees will be facing veteran Kyle Gibson who has been a roughly league-average pitcher for the past few seasons and has dipped below that level of quality so far in 2023. Gibson has made 10 starts and thrown 59 innings, pitching to a 4.27 ERA and 4.54 xFIP with just a 16.7% strikeout rate and allowing 40.3% hard hits and 89.2 mph of average exit velocity. The righty has not been completely awful, but he has not been as moderately effective as in years past either. Gibson’s best start of the year was an 11-strikeout gem against the lowly Tigers back on April 22nd, he has not been nearly that good since. Gibson has allowed more than four runs only once this year, but he has given up exactly four in three other starts, there is only a limited ceiling against the Yankees lineup. For $7,700/$8,400 Gibson is not off the board by any means on a short slate, but he is not one of our favored options and would be ranked just behind Schmidt on our pitching board. The Yankees lineup is in play with the average pitcher on the mound. Gleyber Torres leads off the projected lineup, he has nine home runs and a 127 WRC+ with a .203 ISO and is fairly cheap at a short position ahead of the Yankees’ run creation core. Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo land at 12.94 and 8.70 in our home run model as the team’s two true power hitters. Judge has 14 homers on the season with a ridiculous .350 ISO while slashing .294/.406/.643 and creating runs 81% better than average. Rizzo has hit 11 home runs and has a .217 ISO with an 11.4% barrel rate, the first baseman is still cheap at $4,900/$3,300. DJ LeMahieu‘s odd season was mentioend in this space the other day, the infielder is smoking the ball with a 50.9% hard-hit rate when he makes contact but he has just a .152 ISO and his strikeout rate has doubled since last season. LeMahieu is still a good option in the heart of the lineup for the Yankees, he has cheap multi-position eligibility on the blue site and costs just $3,800 at third base on DraftKings. Harrison Bader is a high-quality outfielder who has a bit of pop and some speed on the bases. Bader has five home runs and three stolen bases in just 77 plate appearances since returning to the team early this month. Jake Bauers costs just $2,100/$2,500 at first base on FanDuel and in the outfield across town. Bauers has two home runs and the idea of power on any slate, his 23.1% barrel rate is terrific but he does not make contact all that often. Bauers has struck out in 36.5% of his 52 plate appearances and was not a good option in his last regular action two years ago, hitting just four home runs while slashing .209/.290/.277 over 315 plate appearances. Anthony Volpe has seven home runs and 13 stolen bases while striking out 30.5% of the time and slashing .203/.290/.373 with an 85 WRC+. The counting stats are strong for MLB DFS and Volpe is cheap at a critical position, which keeps him in play, it would be nice to see his bat come around with a bit more reliability. Oswaldo Cabrera and Ben Rortvedt are low-end options at the plate.
Play: Clarke Schmidt, Yankees bats/stacks, Orioles bats/stacks
Update Notes: the Orioles have Frazier leading off with Mullins out of the lineup tonight. Henderson gets a bump from moving up to fifth in the lineup, Hays-Ryan O’Hearn–Ryan McKenna-Mateo closes the lineup. O’Hearn has a pair of home runs and a .226 ISO in 35 plate appearances, he hit nine homers in 254 chances two years ago but is not an overly productive MLB DFS option on most slates. McKenna has one home run and one stolen base in 56 plate appearances this year, he hit two homers and stole two bases in 172 plate appearances last year. The confirmed Yankees lineup has Bader in the cleanup spot followed by Willie Calhoun-Volpe-Cabrera-Rortvedt and Greg Allen. Calhoun has three home runs in 91 plate appearances and has not been overly productive, which is the story of all of his chances at the MLB level after once upon a time being a highly regarded hitting prospect. Allen has moderate power and very good speed, he was mashing in the Red Sox minor league system before a trade last week brought him back to New York to fill a fourth outfielder role. Allen has the chance for sneaky production at $2,300/$2,000 at the bottom of the lineup. The run-total in this game has come down by a half-run to 8.5.
Philadelphia Phillies (-101/4.76) @ Atlanta Braves (-107/4.84)
One of the more showy spots for power potential in our home run model tonight is the Phillies’ loaded lineup in a matchup against rookie southpaw Dylan Dodd, who will be making just his fourth MLB start. Dodd has thrown 15.1 innings of limited baseball so far, he has a 6.46 ERA and 5.97 xFIP while striking out just 10%. The lefty has allowed a massive amount of premium contact so far, with a 15.3% barrel rate and 91.4 mph of average exit velocity amounting to a 4.29% home run rate and 44.1% hard-hit rate. Dodd has been a target for bats and the hard-hitting Phillies look like a great stack tonight. Philadelphia’s projected lineup opens with Trea Turner who hit his fifth home run last night but is slashing an uncharacteristic .250/.295/.392 with a .142 ISO and 83 WRC+. Turner is a star and he will turn things around, by October his numbers are very likely to look a lot like seasons past, for now he is discounted at just $5,000/$2,800, making him one of the best buys on the slate. Nick Castellanos moves up to the second spot in the projected lineup against the lefty, the outfielder has been productive this season with a 115 WRC+ while slashing .289/.340/.453 with five home runs, but he has cooled somewhat after a flashy start to the season. For the month of May, Castellanos is at just .256/.298/.372 with a .115 ISO and 80 WRC+ in 84 plate appearances. With his price coming back down to $4,500/$3,400, the veteran with a quality bat is another good buy atop this lineup. Bryce Harper is fine to play in a same-handed pitching matchup against a lefty of this caliber. Harper should pretty much never be skipped for handedness reasons, though his historical numbers do dip from stardom to just above-average levels for his career against fellow southpaws. Harper has a 152 WRC+ and .264 ISO while slashing .290/.403/.554 against righties for his career, in same-handed matchups, he is at .260/.360/.453 with a .193 ISO and 119 WRC+. Let the field overthink the situation, Dodd is a non-threatening lefty who Harper can destroy in this spot. JT Realmuto costs $4,700/$2,900, he can be played like a first baseman on the blue site and is a good cheap catcher where the position is mandatory. Realmuto has hit three home runs and stolen seven bases in 169 plate appearances while creating runs four percent better than average. Kyle Schwarber is another big lefty power bat in this lineup, he has 12 home runs and a .234 ISO so far this season. Schwarber has suffered more in same-handed matchups over his career than Harper does, but he is still a high-upside option who will likely see two or three plate appearances against bullpen arms, Schwarber is another player who can be rostered more if the field is leaving him aside for the lefty-lefty matchup. Alec Bohm has five home runs and a 94 WRC+ for the season after 200 plate appearances. He started the year as a more productive option but he still is carrying a 43.4% hard-hit rate and has first and third base eligibility on both sites at $3,300/$2,900. Edmundo Sosa has hit three home runs while slashing .275/.298/.422 in 116 plate appearances, Josh Harrison has made just 59 plate appearances and has one home run but at 35 WRC+, and Dalton Guthrie closes out the lineup with a $2,000/$2,300 option in the outfield.
The loaded Braves are taking on veteran ace Aaron Nola, who has not been entirely himself this season. Nola’s strikeouts have dipped in a major way, but he has also probably not been quite as bad as what the casual gamer may think on a game-by-game basis. Overall, the righty has just a 21.3% strikeout rate, down from 29.1% last year and 29.8% in 2021 with his swinging-strike rate dipping from 12.6% and 12.8% to just 9.9% this season. Nola has pitched to a 4.31 ERA and 4.18 xFIP, non-tragic numbers for most pitchers but something of a disaster for a starter who we expect to work more around the 3.25 ERA and 2.77 xFIP he posted last season or at least the 3.37 xFIP from the year before. Nola has allowed more premium contact than usual so far this year as well, home runs are up slightly as are his barrel rate and hard-hit rate allowed, and his average exit velocity. There are no major changes, but everything is up just enough to be noteworthy. The righty has lost about one mph of velocity on his four-seamer which has been enough to reduce the effectiveness of the pitch from a 24.2% whiff rate to just 17.2% while hitters have managed a .604 slugging percentage with a .494 xSLG on the pitch. This seems to be creating a bit of a downstream impact that has his curveball whiff rate down from 39.4% to 27.7% despite no noticeable changes in the pitch itself. Nola has been throwing his cutter more this season, taking the pitch from about 6.5% usage to 12.5% this year while throwing fewer sinkers and four-seamers. The cutter has been effective with a 32.4% whiff rate but hitters have also been able to square it up to the turn of a .500 slugging percentage despite a .398 xSLG. Nola is priced down for his talent, $9,500/$9,700 is cheap for this pitcher in general, he has a brutal matchup for power and run creation upside with the Braves on the other side, but there are also strikeouts to be had in Atlanta’s lineup. As a tiebreaker, the 4.80-run implied team total for Atlanta, despite the presence of Nola on the mound, is a bit of a cause for concern. The pitcher is playable and should be utilized, if he is projected for low popularity around the industry it would make sense to push additional chips onto his name and get beyond the field, but it probably makes just as much sense to grab shares of Atlanta bats. Ronald Acuna Jr. has 11 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 222 plate appearances, he is the dictionary definition of a superstar atop the Atlanta lineup and is worth any asking price on most slates. Matt Olson hit a moonshot last night that may not have landed yet, the first baseman has 14 homers and a massive .293 ISO for the season on a 21.9% barrel rate and 54.4% hard hits. Sean Murphy has a 19% barrel rate and 45.7% hard hits that has turned into 10 home runs and a .275 ISO while the backstop has been 56% better than average creating runs in 171 plate appearances. Murphy somehow still costs just $4,900 where his position is necessary, it is easy to pretend he is another power-packed first baseman at $3,900 on FanDuel and play him alongside Olson. Austin Riley looks to be coming around at the plate after an extended slump, he has seven home runs and a .165 ISO with a 106 WRC+ this season and costs just $4,800/$2,900 which is cheap for a player who hit 38 home runs last year and 33 the year before. Eddie Rosario slots in for $2,500 on both sites in the outfield, he has a bit of power but has been 22% below average for run creation so far this season while hitting five home runs. Ozzie Albies costs $4,600/$3,200, very cheap for a second baseman with 10 home runs and a .222 ISO in 204 plate appearances this year. The price for Albies’ talent at a premium position with a short list of quality options is surprising, he should be more expensive than this even with Nola on the mound. Marcell Ozuna has nine home runs and a .244 ISO after another bomb last night. Ozuna is limited to hitting only for power these days, he is slashing .211/.302/.455 but all we need from him is that premium contact at $2,700/$2,800 in the outfield. Ozuna has a 14.6% barrel rate and 47.2% hard-hit percentage for the year, he is a good buy when stacking Braves. Orlando Arcia is a player we have looked at a few times recently, he is a productive multi-position option for $3,000 on FanDuel and slots in at shortstop for just $3,600 on DraftKings. Arcia has four home runs and a 139 WRC+ in 105 plate appearances, he is a playable piece that helps offset price, popularity, and positional requirements. Michael Harris II has struggled over 98 plate appearances but remains playable for the memory of last year’s productive counting stats.
Play: Phillies bats/stacks aggressively, some Aaron Nola, Braves bats/stacks in smaller doses
Update Notes: the confirmed Phillies lineup has Bryson Stott leading off ahead of Turner-Harper-Castellanos-Schwarber-Realmuto-Bohm-Brandon Marsh-Sosa. Stott and Marsh are both productive hitters, Stott is more of a correlated scoring play atop the lineup, while Marsh has individual upside and has hit four home runs with a .209 ISO and 133 WRC+ in 160 plate appearances from the left side. The configuration of the Phillies lineup tells us exactly how not intimidated they are by the limited lefty on the mound for Atlanta. The confirmed lineup for Atlanta looks as anticipated.
San Francisco Giants (-130/4.83) @ Milwaukee Brewers (+120/4.27)
The Giants will be facing right-handed starter Julio Teheran who has not thrown a meaningful Major League inning in some time. Teheran made one start and pitched five innings with Detroit in 2021, he made nine starts for the Angels in the weird 2020 season, throwing 31.1 innings, and he was last relevant when still with Atlanta in 2019. That season, Teheran made 33 starts and pitched to a 5.26 xFIP with a 21.5% strikeout rate and an 11% walk rate. It seems unlikely that he has gotten better. The Giants lineup is primed for power in our model tonight, the team is at or above the magic number for home run upside from top to bottom in this matchup. Leadoff hitter LaMonte Wade Jr. has hit seven home runs and has a .199 ISO with a 152 WRC+ on a 10.3% barrel rate and 41.1% hard-hit percentage for the year. Wade is very good at limiting strikeouts and drawing walks, his walk rate is currently 19.3% for the season, and he could give Teheran fits to start the game. Thairo Estrada has six home runs and a .170 ISO, he is pulling in a 15.90 in our home run model. JD Davis has hit eight home runs with a .204 ISO and a 51.4% hard-hit rate this season in a nice early breakout. With a 16.94 in our home run model, Davis is one of the top options in the Giants lineup, he costs just $3,700/$2,900 tonight after cooling a bit in recent weeks. Michael Conforto mashes from the left side of the plate, he has an 11.5% barrel rate and 47.1% hard-hit rate this season, and he has 10 home runs in 175 plate appearances with a .219 ISO to this point in his return to action. Mitch Haniger has not done much in 89 opportunities since coming back to the lineup, he has two home runs and a 42 WRC+ but his 48.3% hard-hit rate in the tiny sample is typical for the outfielder and is a sign of power to come. Mike Yastrzemski is another lefty power bat to throw at Teheran in this spot, he has five home runs in 129 plate appearances this year and he hit 17 in 558 tries last year and 25 in 532 the season before. Casey Schmitt is cheap at $3,200/$3,100 with third base and shortstop eligibility on DraftKings but only at the hot corner on FanDuel. Schmitt has two home runs and is slashing .328/.328/.500 since his call-up, he has a 10.95 in our home run model and could be a cheap upside play against this pitcher. Patrick Bailey and Brandon Crawford round out the projected lineup. Bailey is a backup catcher with one home run in 15 plate appearances this season, Crawford is a veteran shortstop who hits from the left side and has mashed four home runs in just 103 plate appearances. Crawford has a 10.71 in our home run model, he is another potentially low-owned source of power at the end of this batting order.
The Brewers are facing left-handed opener Scott Alexander followed by the Giants bullpen. Alexander has thrown 17.1 innings and has a 12.9% strikeout rate with a 4.67 ERA and 4.03 xFIP this season, he is a non-entity even at $4,000 on the DraftKings slate. The Brewers have a platoon-focused lineup when lefties are on the mound, they will likely feature Owen Miller in the leadoff role at just $2,700/$2,800 with multi-position eligibility on both sites. Miller has four home runs and five stolen bases while slashing .346/.367/.548 in 109 plate appearances and creating runs 47% better than average. Miller hit just six home runs with an 85 WRC+ and a .108 ISO in 472 plate appearances last year, the step up in quality would be a major surprise if sustained. William Contreras is a productive catcher who has a 104 WRC+ and moderate power from the right side of the plate. Contreras has four home runs and a 10.4% barrel rate with a 46.2% hard-hit rate for just $3,500/$2,800. Christian Yelich has seven home runs and 10 stolen bases, he will likely slide down the lineup against same-handed pitching to start the game. Willy Adames has been scuffling over 209 plate appearances. The shortstop has hit for power, he has nine home runs but just a .177 ISO and 83 WRC+ while slashing .204/.290/.381. Brian Anderson and Darin Ruf have playable right-handed bats for cheap prices, Anderson has hit eight home runs and has a .199 ISO this season, Ruf has made 41 plate appearances primarily against lefties, but he has not done much with them. For $2,300/$2,000 at first base on DraftKings and with added outfield eligibility on FanDuel, the idea of power is enough to stick Ruf in lineups, assuming he plays at all. Rowdy Tellez has power in any matchup, he has 12 home runs and a .278 ISO with a 12.4% barrel rate and he comes cheap at just $4,300/$3,000. Tyrone Taylor and Joey Wiemer close out the projected lineup, Taylor has not been good this year but hit for mid-range power in 2022, Wiemer has a 67 WRC+ over 153 plate appearances in his MLB career.
Play: Giants bats/stacks aggressively, some Brewers bats/stacks
Update Notes: the confirmed Giants lineup sees Conforto climb to the third spot with Davis hitting cleanup and Conforto fifth while Haniger slides down to sixth. Blake Sabol adds a power-hitting left-handed bat with catcher eligibility in the seventh spot with Crawford taking a seat, Sabol has five home runs and a .196 ISO with a 125 WRC+ over 113 plate appearances, supported by an 11.3% barrel rate and 43.5% hard-hit rate for just $3,400/$2,800. Schmitt and Bailey close the confirmed Giants lineup. The confirmed Brewers lineup runs Miller-Ruf (minor bump)-Adames-Yelich-Anderson-Victor Caratini(value C)-Tellez-Wiemer-Turang
New York Mets (-105/4.31) @ Chicago Cubs (-103/4.28)
The Mets won’t get out of Chicago before facing the return of veteran righty Kyle Hendricks, who has not pitched since early last July after suffering a muscle tear in his shoulder. Hendricks is a reliable veteran of the “better in real life” ilk, he is a low-end strikeout option who can post clean innings in some starts but will allow four to five runs in others, while rarely getting completely destroyed. The righty has made five rehab starts over the last few weeks, so he is probably completely stretched out in terms of pitch count in his season debut, but it seems like a stretch to expect much on the mount at $7,500/$7,200 from a pitcher who was not a major MLB DFS option on the mound even before the injury. A matchup against the Mets lineup is another reason that Hendricks lacks major appeal, though the wind will be blowing in aggressively toward home plate and should favor pitching in Chicago once again tonight. The visiting Mets lineup may be limited for overall run creation and their home run upside should be somewhat capped, but as we saw last night it is not impossible to hit home runs in this environment just because the wind is blowing in. Brandon Nimmo is cheap at $4,300/$3,100 for a player slashing .295/.374/.421 with a 127 WRC+ at the top of a good lineup. Francisco Lindor has seven home runs but is mired at just .227/.304/.412 with a 102 WRC+ for the season. The star shortstop is down to just a .186 ISO on an 8.3% barrel rate and 40% hard hits and he has been striking out more and walking less this season, but he is a player who can turn it on at any point and his struggles have rendered him somewhat cheap on both sites. Jeff McNeil is a slap-hitting correlated scoring play who can get involved in run creation ahead of the team’s masher Pete Alonso in the cleanup role. McNeil is slashing .281/.360/.360 with a 109 WRC+ for the season but he has hit only two home runs with a 2.5% barrel rate so far this season. Alonso has 18 home runs as the league leader, he is slashing .231/.325/.538 with a .306 ISO while creating runs 38% better than average. The first baseman is one of the league’s premiere power hitters, he is a strong buy in the heart of this lineup in any matchup. Brett Baty is a premium rookie prospect who has been hitting well in 112 plate appearances since his call-up. Baty has four home runs with a .160 ISO and 105 WRC+ so far and he is still cheap at $2,800/$2,600. Starling Marte has not been good this year, he has a 76 WRC+ in 173 plate appearances with 13 stolen bases and not much else. Daniel Vogelbach has a pair of home runs and a 107 WRC+ in 117 plate appearances. The lefty first baseman costs $2,100/$2,500 and he has a 50.7% hard-hit rate and could be a sneaky power option when going to Mets bats in bad conditions. Mark Canha has a 91 WRC+ in 160 plate appearances but he has not been up to snuff for most of the year, Canha has been a productive player in the past, he can be useful at $2,400/$2,500 when going to this team. Francisco Alvarez hit a home run in the bad environment last night, he has six one the season with a .253 ISO and has settled in nicely at this level after being promoted early.
The Cubs will be similarly limited by the conditions tonight in their matchup against right-handed veteran Carlos Carrasco who takes the mound with an unsightly 8.68 ERA and 6.25 xFIP. The righty made three starts in early April, then missed a few weeks before returning with five innings of five-run five-hit action against the weak Guardians lineup last week. Carrasco has been targetable so far this season, his 12.8% swinging-strike rate and 11.6% walk rate are problematic and he has allowed a 12.9% barrel rate and 4.65% home run rate in the tiny sample. This is not a good situation for the righty, even with the wind at his back Carrasco seems like a tough option at $7,000/$7,500. There are strikeouts available in the Cubs lineup and the slate is fairly short for pitching, it would not be an absolute mistake to roster the veteran in this spot, but the path to success is extremely thin, so the play should be made with eyes open. Chicago’s lineup opens with Nico Hoerner who also managed to blast a home run through the headwind last night. He now has three on the year while slashing .295/.342/.405 with a .110 ISO and 106 WRC+. Hoerner is more of a hit tool and speed option who has moderate power, he hit 10 home runs and stole 20 bases while creating runs six percent better than average in 517 plate appearances last year. In 42 opportunities this season, Miles Mastrobuoni has not done much at the plate, he has been 50% worse than average creating runs in the tiny sample and has not hit for power, though he has stolen three bases. The infielder is cheap at $2,000/$2,200 but he has a 0.00 in our home run model, which we have never seen before. Dansby Swanson steps in with four home runs and a 117 WRC+ in 215 plate appearances and a discounted salary at shortstop. Ian Happ has four home runs and four stolen bases with a 136 WRC+ and Seiya Suzuki has six home runs with a 137 WRC+. Swanson, Happ, and Suzuki are a dynamite run creation engine in the heart of the order, they can be stacked together or mixed in combinations with other productive options like Christopher Morel and Matt Mervis who hit seventh and eighth in the projected lineup behind lefty outfielder Mike Tauchman. Morel has nine home runs in 56 plate appearances with a ridiculous .925 slugging percentage and .566 ISO in the tiny sample, he has been outrageously good since his return to the lineup but his price has spiked to $5,100/$4,600. The DraftKings number is probably fine, but the FanDuel cost is a bit out of line with Morel’s true talents when compared to the cost of other players around the slate. Tauchman may or may not be in the lineup, depending on how much the Cubs worry about the platoon option against struggling Carrasco. Mervis is a premium prospect who has two home runs since his call-up, he has a .130 ISO and 77 WRC+ in the 59 plate appearances but his 14.3% barrel rate and 51.4% hard-hit in the small sample are encouraging. Catcher Yan Gomes has six home runs and a .198 ISO in 103 plate appearances and tends to get overlooked in stacks of Cubs hitters.
Play: minor shares of Mets and Cubs bats, the conditions are good for pitching but the options are not, maybe a few low-cost low-expectations darts but not much more
Update Notes: the Cubs lineup runs Hoerner-Swanson-Happ-Suzuki-Tauchman-Morel-Mervis-Patrick Wisdom-Gomes, Wisdom adds a nice power bat to the back end of the lineup for Chicago, he has 12 home runs and a .312 ISO in 161 plate appearances this year with a 20.3% barrel rate and 57% hard hits for just $3,600/$3,200 with third base eligibility on DraftKings and added outfield possibility on FanDuel. The run total in Vegas is up a half-run to 8.5 and the Mets have swung slightly ahead with a 4.30-run implied total in a fairly evenly matched game.
Oakland Athletics (+216/2.76) @ Seattle Mariners (-240/4.33)
Mariners righty Logan Gilbert tops our pitching projections in a great matchup against the Athletics tonight. Oakland’s active roster ranks 24th with a .142 ISO and 88 collective WRC+ in the split against righties this season and Gilbert is a very good righty off to an excellent start. He has a 30.6% strikeout rate in a major leap from last year’s 22.7% mark. Gilbert has thrown significantly more strikes in 2023, taking his CSW% from 25.1% to 28.9% with a boost in swinging strikes from 10.8% to 11.3%. The righty has walked just 4.9% of opposing hitters while pitching to a 3.81 ERA and 2.94 xFIP over 52 innings in nine starts, he should be an excellent option for strikeout upside, as well as for chasing both a win and quality start bonus in his pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Gilbert is the best pitching option on both sites tonight at $9,900/$10,600, he should be very popular but he is likely to post a highly necessary score. The low-end Athletics lineup should see the return of Brent Rooker after he got a needed night off last night. Rooker has a 9.22 to lead the lousy lineup in our home run model tonight, but he is a poor option who has rocketed back through the atmosphere and crashed into Earth during the month of May. The struggling slugger should hit third behind Esteury Ruiz who swiped another bag and now has 26 on the season, and Ryan Noda, a semi-capable left-handed hitter with a touch of power. Noda has four home runs and a .190 ISO with a 137 WRC+ in 157 plate appearances this season. Rooker and Seth Brown are the power core for this team, Brown is the better hitter, he has power and runs a bit when he gets on, he stole 11 bases and hit 25 home runs in 2022 but has missed most of this season. JJ Bleday is another lefty with a bit of mid-range power, he comes cheap at $2,800/$2,400 for the contrarians in the crowd who want to attack Gilbert with lousy hitting tonight. Jace Peterson has three home runs and a .096 ISO with a 77 WRC+, Shea Langeliers has seven home runs and a .182 ISO but has slipped to just 87 WRC+, and the lineup closes in flat style with Tony Kemp and Nick Allen. Taking shares of the opposing pitcher is a much better option than rostering Athletics hitters in this matchup.
Lefty JP Sears has been a bit of a surprise in spots this season. While we will stop well short of saying that Sears has been good, given his 4.99 ERA and 4.61 xFIP, he has certainly been a bit more productive than expected, and his 25.1% strikeout rate with a 4.9% walk rate are nice surprises from the cheap southpaw. Sears has given up too much premium contact that has resulted in home runs, which have been the issue for him this season, he has a 5.42% home run rate on an 11.6% barrel rate with 37.7% hard hits and 87.8 mph of average exit velocity allowed. Sears had just a 17.7% strikeout rate in 70 innings and 11 starts last season, he has made big strides in taking his swinging-strike rate from just eight percent last year to 12.3% so far this season, but his CSW% has actually dipped slightly. The matchup against Seattle is not a good one for this pitcher, the Mariners have a quality 4.64-run implied team total in Vegas and are heavily favored with the upside to cash in on the premium contact that this pitcher has allowed. Seattle’s leadoff man JP Crawford is a good option for correlated scoring, he has a .368 on-base percentage and 114 WRC+ for the season, though he has never been good in same-handed matchups and may move out of this spot with a lefty on the bump. Julio Rodriguez and Eugenio Suarez offer major right-handed power in the second and third spots in the projected lineup with Ty France still out. Rodriguez has seven home runs and eight stolen bases so far but has not been as productive as last year, which has made him slightly cheap at $5,600/$3,400, and Suarez is priced way down at $4,500/$2,900 after struggling to just five home runs and a .109 ISO so far this year. Jarred Kelenic has mashed against same-handed pitchers so far this season, he should not be skipped because of the lefty on the mound, if he is low-owned because of the matchup it simply creates additional upside. The outfielder has 10 home runs and a .254 ISO for the season, he was not as good in May as he was to start the year but he is a very good play at an affordable price in this matchup. Teoscar Hernandez is another major power hitter on the right side, he blasted 25 home runs last year and 32 the year before, and he has nine in 204 plate appearances this year with a 13.1% barrel rate and 48.4% hard-hit rate. Tom Murphy is a stout right-handed power bat at catcher if he gets the start in this one, Jose Caballero, AJ Pollock, and Sam Haggerty round out the projected lineup. Pollock has four home runs and veteran upside at a cheap price but he has not been great this year, Caballero has been productive in spots at cheap prices and low popularity, he has two home runs and a 138 WRC+ in 74 plate appearances, and Haggerty is cheap at first or second base on DraftKings but has just a 44 WRC+ in 42 plate appearances. Last year, Haggerty had five home runs and 13 stolen bases with a 114 WRC+ over 201 chances, he is not a good play necessarily, but there is upside at $2,100 on both sites when making multiple stacks of Mariners hitters.
Play: Logan Gilbert, Mariners bats/stacks, minor value shares of Sears are not off the board
Update Notes: the run total has dropped by a half-run to just 7.0. the Mariners will have Ty France back in the lineup after all, he returns to his usual second spot following Crawford, ahead of Rodriguez-Kelenic-Suarez-Cal Raleigh-Hernandez-Murphy-Caballero. The addition of France and Raleigh to the lineup, replacing Pollock and Haggerty is a bump in quality for Seattle’s lineup. The Athletics have Langeliers hitting fifth in a bit of a bump from his originally projected spot, and Allen hits eighth with Kemp ninth.
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