The nine-game MLB DFS slate begins at 4:05 ET this afternoon on both DraftKings and FanDuel with a fairly loaded board on both sides of the game. There are only a few premium starters, but there are also good mid-range or young upside-heavy prospect pitchers in good spots who can be utilized at discounted prices across the industry. At the same time, there are numerous teams showing home run upside and individual power potential, though no team is fully smashing through the ceiling on our Power Index. The best spot for power is most likely going to be the game in Cincinnati, where both sides are drawing strong marks for home run potential, but there are a few excellent opportunities for MLB DFS run creation in stacks including the Astros, Rays, and maybe even the low-end game between the Tigers and Nationals. There are also a number of bad weather spots around the league to watch, with late news coming in that the Guardians vs Mets game has already been postponed. The Cubs vs Phillies matchup has threatening weather that may roll in during the game but they should be able to get it in, though the truly uncomfortable spot is in Washington, where the Nationals are unpredictable in these situations, there is rain due to breeze through during the game, but they will have plenty of time to get it in if they would like.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Summary – 5/20/23
Colorado Rockies (+170/3.63) @ Texas Rangers (-186/4.97)
The lousy Rockies lineup is drawing just a 3.67-run implied team total against veteran righty Jon Gray who has been very good in his past two outings after a mediocre start to the season. Gray struck out eight Mariners in a one-run seven-inning start two games ago, then he blanked the Athletics while allowing just three hits to 28 hitters and striking out five over 8.0 innings. Gray is a proven veteran starter, he had a 25.7% strikeout rate with a 3.96 ERA and 3.46 xFIP in 24 starts and 127.1 innings last year in his first season out of Colorado, and he was always better than he may have seemed while with the Rockies. Gray’s strikeout rate for the season is still just 17.4% and his xFIP sits at 4.90 but his ERA is 3.15 and he is inducing a 10.4% swinging-strike rate and has a 27.2% CSW%. Gray’s price is still low, he costs just $8,300/$9,500 and looks like a strong option in our pitching projections. The Rockies projected lineup includes Charlie Blackmon in the leadoff role for $4,600/$2,800. The inexpensive veteran outfielder has been decent this year, he has a 103 WRC+ with three home runs on the board but his contact profile does not show much power upside. Jurickson Profar needs to go. The utility man is best suited to a flexible role that does not require him to be a regular contributor, he has just an 81 WRC+ with five home runs while slashing .231/.320/.395 in 170 plate appearances while blocking prospect debuts. Kris Bryant is slashing .289/.362/.415 with a 102 WRC+ but he has not hit for much power this year. Bryant is mired at a 5.5% barrel rate and 33.1% hard-hit after posting similar marks in his small sample last year. The outfielder is still a good option when going to stacks of Rockies, particularly at $4,900/$2,800. Elias Diaz has been a good cheap catcher, he is slashing .336/.387/.469 with a 120 WRC+ in 142 opportunities for just $4,500/$2,700 in the projected cleanup spot. Ryan McMahon is second on the team with a 6.07 in our home run model, he has four this season with a .176 ISO but a very good contact profile with a 13% barrel rate and 48% hard-hit rate for the season. Harold Castro is projected to land in the sixth spot for a cheap $2,600 at second base on DraftKings and for $2,300 at second, shortstop, or in the outfield on the blue site. Randal Grichuk has hit just one home run in 60 plate appearances with a 43.9% hard-hit rate for the year and a 139 WRC+ in the small sample, he has power upside on the right side of the plate. Michael Toglia is a highly-regarded prospect who costs just $2,900/$2,500, Ezequiel Tovar has not done much over 150 plate appearances, he is slashing .211/.253/.352 while creating runs 52% below average.
The high-octane Rangers offense is in a great spot against Kyle Freeland who has a 3.16 ERA and 4.48 xFIP over 51.1 innings and nine starts so far this season. The southpaw has struck out just 18.8% with an 8.1% swinging-strike rate and 23.7% CSW% that should be exploitable for premium contact. The veteran has given up a 7.2% barrel rate and 36.8% hard-hit with 89 mph of average exit velocity and a 3.96% home run rate. Freeland gave up more power last season, he allowed a 42% hard-hit rate and struck out just 17.1% over 174.2 innings and 31 starts, he is a targetable pitcher with bats like these. Marcus Semien is a high-end leadoff hitter who is one of the best second basemen on any given slate. Semien has hit seven home runs with a matching stolen base total in 206 opportunities this year. The infield star has a 39.9% hard-hit rate but just a 3.4% barrel rate, he hit 26 home runs last year and 45 the season before. Corey Seager is back in the second spot in the lineup, he has an 8.13 in our home run model this afternoon and is slashing .326/.421/.500 with a 155 WRC+ in his early 57 plate appearances. Seager is a star who hit 33 home runs last year, he is very much in play at just $4,900/$3,000 in this matchup. Nathaniel Lowe is slashing .260/.342/.434 with a .173 ISO and 116 WRC+ over 196 plate appearances this year. The first baseman hit 27 home runs last season, he is cheap on both sites at $4,100/$3,100. Adolis Garcia costs $5,000/$4,100, the price on DraftKings is a big discount for the star-caliber outfielder who has 14 home runs already this season. Garcia has a massive .296 ISO with a 135 WRC+, he has a 15.7% barrel rate and 54.5% hard-hit rate this year. Josh Jung has a 10.9% barrel rate with a 48.2% hard-hit rate and eight home runs on the season, but his ISO is down to .190 with his WRC+ at 105 and his strikeout rate is 30.9%. Jung will be a peaks and valleys hitter for his entire career at that high level of strikeouts. Jonah Heim has an 11.1% barrel rate and 40.7% hard-hit for the season which he has translated to six home runs with a .197 ISO as a valuable catcher play. Ezequiel Duran has hit six home runs and stolen three bases as a regular in the lineup for most of the season. The valuable infielder is just a shortstop on DraftKings but he has eligibility at shortstop, second base, and in the outfield on FanDuel for just $2,900. Duran is slashing .307/.343/.512 with a .205 ISO and 134 WRC+. Robbie Grossman and Leody Taveras round out the lineup with a 95 and 109 WRC+ over 153 and 121 plate appearances.
Play: Jon Gray, Rangers bats/stacks
Update Notes: the confirmed Colorado lineup is as expected from 1-4 with McMahon-Grichuk-Mike Moustakas-Castro-Tovar following. Moustakas has a 65 WRC+ with two homers in 75 plate appearances this year. The confirmed Rangers lineup runs mostly as expected but Sandy Leon slots into the final spot as today’s catcher with Grossman moving up the lineup to hit sixth between Jung and Duran and Heim getting the day off in a minor hit to the team’s power upside.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+131/3.93) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-142/4.66)
Arizona’s active roster has been fifth-best in baseball with a 115 WRC+ against right-handed pitching so far this season, with a .187 ISO that is tied for sixth in the league in the split. The Diamondbacks will be facing righty Mitch Keller who has finally been having the breakout season that everyone has been looking for over the past few years. Keller has made nine starts and thrown 56.2 innings this year, posting a 30.1% strikeout rate while walking 6.1% and pitching to an excellent 2.38 ERA and 3.12 xFIP. The righty has induced a 10.3% swinging-strike rate with a very good 30.5% CSW% and he has allowed just a 27.1% hard-hit rate with 86 mph of average exit velocity this season. Keller is a premium option on the slate, particularly on DraftKings where he costs just $9,300, at $11,500 on the blue site he is probably going to be far less popular, which gives him tournament upside even at the hefty salary. Keller projects well in the matchup, even with the Diamondbacks’ current-year quality in the split, he is the second-highest projected starter on our pitching board, but there are similar options for lower salaries in better matchups who warrant consideration, this is a tricky spot on both sites this evening. The Diamondbacks lineup is similarly in a “playable but maybe not?” place in the matchup, the team has clearly been good against righties this season, but Keller has been excellent so far this year. The Diamondbacks projected lineup opens with Josh Rojas who slots in at second and third base for $5,000 on DraftKings and is a $2,900 third baseman on FanDuel. Rojas has been 20% below average for run creation in 145 plate appearances so far this season but was at a 108 WRC+ in 510 effective plate appearances as a correlated scoring option with speed last year. Ketel Marte has five home runs and three steals after a strong start, but he is down to a .181 ISO and just an 8.9% barrel rate. His 42.2% hard-hit rate is still good, and Marte has remained involved, he has a 115 WRC+ over 181 plate appearances and is an affordable option at second base. Corbin Carroll feels like he has been at six home runs and 10 stolen bases since the third week of the season, but his overall numbers are very good in 165 plate appearances. The rookie outfielder is slashing .275/.366/.486 with a .211 ISO and 130 WRC+. Christian Walker has 11 home runs and a .263 ISO with a 124 WRC+ and has a 6.82 mark in our home run model tonight to lead the Diamondbacks. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. costs just $4,300/$3,200 which is cheap for a player slashing .309/.370/.544 with a .235 ISO and 145 WRC+ over 165 chances this season. Gurriel has been a good hitter the past two years, even during his power blackout last season he still created runs 14% better than average, he is very cheap for his talent. Pavin Smith and Dominic Fletcher are a pair of young left-handed outfielders who have been productive in small samples so far this year. Smith has two home runs with a 105 WRC+ in 97 plate appearances, Fletcher has made just 65 plate appearances but has a pair of home runs with a .220 ISO and 160 WRC+ while slashing .356/.397/.576. Geraldo Perdomo cooled after a hot start but he is still slashing .326/.418/.547 with four home runs in 114 plate appearances. Jose Herrera has a 69 WRC+ over 48 opportunities this year.
The Pirates lineup is showing upside for power against rookie hurler Brandon Pfaadt who is very affordable at just $5,400/$6,000 tonight. Pittsburgh’s lineup has been up and down for quality this season, they have a 99 WRC+ against right-handed pitching so far this season. Pfaadt was not good in his first two starts this season, giving up seven runs to Texas in 4.2 innings in his first start then six to the Marlins in 5.0 in his second while striking out three in each outing. In his most recent start, Pfaadt struck out five Giants but walked three in 5.0 innings while allowing just a solo home run. The righty has had a power problem, in addition to the solo shot that was the only hit he yielded in the start against the Giants he gave up two home runs to the Marlins and a ridiculous four to the Rangers. Pfaadt is a highly-regarded pitching prospect who struck out 30.6% over 61.2 innings in AAA and 32.2% in 105.1 innings in AA last year, at his extreme discount on both sites there is five-inning multi-strikeout upside in Pfaadt against the Pirates this afternoon. The discount that the pitcher provides unlocks numerous hitting combinations that are otherwise unavailable across the industry, he is potentially a key to the slate. Of course, with the amount of power that he has allowed and the struggles that he showed in his first two starts, Pfaadt is somewhat targetable with the top of the Pirates lineup, if not in full stacks. The Pittsburgh lineup has three hitters above the magic number in our home run model, conveniently they are projected to hit 1-3. Andrew McCutchen has seven home runs and a .198 ISO with a 127 WRC+ over 157 plate appearances, Bryan Reynolds has hit six home runs – he finally hit another one after hitting five by April 7th then none since – while creating runs 25% better than average, and Jack Suwinski has a team-leading 12.71 in our home run model, with seven in his ledger already this year. Suwinski has a 17.4% barrel rate and 44.9% hard-hit rate this year, he had a 12.2% mark for barrels and a 39.9% hard-hit rate last year while mashing 19 home runs in 372 opportunities. Carlos Santana has hit just two home runs and has a .133 ISO this season with just a 4.9% barrel rate and 34.4% hard-hit mark for the year. Ke’Bryan Hayes has a 5.1% barrel rate but a 48.6% hard-hit rate for the year, he should be a better hitter than he is, he has just one home run with a .110 ISO and 77 WRC+ which is not good enough to justify even his $4,400 DraftKings salary, for $2,700 on FanDuel he is a bit more interesting. Tucupita Marcano is cheap but mostly ineffective later in the lineup, he has a 103 WRC+ in 73 plate appearances this year but was at 57 in 177 tries last year. Ji-Hwan Bae has stolen 14 bases this season with a pair of home runs but he has been 19% below average for run creation. Josh Palacios and Jason Delay round out the lineup, Delay has been productive over 63 plate appearances at catcher with a .339/.387/.500 triple-slash.
Play: Mitch Keller, Diamondbacks bats/stacks, Brandon Pfaadt value, minor shares of Pirates top end
Update Notes: the confirmed Arizona lineup runs exactly as anticipated. the Pirates lineup has Austin Hedges in the ninth spot instead of Delay as the team’s catcher.
Chicago Cubs (+137/4.11) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-149/4.99)
The Cubs lineup is facing scuffling veteran Aaron Nola, who has pitched to just a 19.2% strikeout rate over his first nine outings and 55.2 innings this year. Nola has a 4.53 ERA and 4.44 xFIP for the year while allowing a 3.13% home run rate on a 7.7% barrel rate but just 33.3% hard hits so far this year. The righty’s swinging-strike rate has dropped from 12.6% last year to just 9.6% this season with a related dip in his CSW% from 32.4% to just 28.6% this year. The righty has been an ace throughout his career, he struck out 29.1% over 205 innings last year and 29.8% in 180.2 innings the year before, but he has not been himself so far this year. Nola comes cheap at $9,200 on both sites, he is a playable option who projects in the middle of the board against the Cubs’ frisky lineup but his ongoing concerns are real at this point. The Cubs are in an odd spot given Nola’s struggles. They do not project particularly well, but they have been good throughout the season for run creation and they have several interesting hitters in most situations. Nola has more than enough talent to breeze through this lineup while finding strikeouts and chasing a win and quality start, particularly with his teammates looking like a good option at the plate, but the Cubs could catch up to him and make a game of things. Chicago’s lineup opens with Nico Hoerner who has 12 stolen bases and two home runs while slashing .310./.353/.411 with a 111 WRC+ in 170 chances this year. Dansby Swanson has hit three home runs and stolen four bases while creating runs 14% better than average, he is priced down to just $4,400/$3,200 and makes a strong option at shortstop when choosing to attack Nola with tiny bears. Ian Happ has created runs a whopping 46% better than average in 192 plate appearances over which he is slashing .301/.422/.462 with a fantastic 17.2% walk rate. Happ hits for mid-range power and is an excellent correlated scoring option who is involved in everything for Chicago, he hit 17 home runs in 2022 and 25 in 2021, there is an upside beyond what is in his excellent stat line already this season and he costs just $4,200/$3,000, the entire Cubs lineup is cheap in the (probably) bad matchup. Seiya Suzuki has hit five home runs and has a .207 ISO with a 139 WRC+ in 134 plate appearances, Matt Mervis has one home run in 46 opportunities and still costs just $2,300 at first base on both sites. Mervis is a premium prospect who hit for a lot of power in the minors, he is a good option in the heart of the lineup. Christopher Morel hit another home run last night, he now has a ridiculous six in just 41 plate appearances, his slugging percentage is .872 and his ISO is .513 in the tiny sample. Morel is a good option who hit 16 home runs and stole 10 bases last season, he costs just $4,300 with outfield and second base eligibility on DraftKings but is already priced up to $4,100 on FanDuel at third base or in the outfield. Edwin Rios hit seven home runs in 92 plate appearances last year, he is an option at third base for $2,200/$2,100 if he is in the lineup. Patrick Wisdom may hit higher in the batting order than this, the righty costs just $4,100/$3,500 tonight despite 12 home runs on the board already this year. Tucker Barnhart is a cheap but limited catcher option.
The Phillies are in an interesting position in the middle of the board, with their top-6 looking like a more competitive option overall. The team has major power upside in several spots, though a number of their hitters have been underperforming or absent. They will be at home to face righty Jameson Taillon who has not been very good over 24.1 innings and six starts. Taillon is a capable veteran pitcher who has been good over time, including in his return from a second Tommy John Surgery two years ago. Since then, Taillon has been roughly around league-average, he had a 4.30 ERA and 4.69 xFIP with a 23.2% strikeout rate in 144.1 innings and 29 starts in 2021 and followed that up with a 3.91 ERA and 3.79 xFIP with a 20.7% strikeout rate in 177.1 innings and 32 starts. Over six outings this year, the righty has an ugly 6.66 ERA with a better 4.32 xFIP and 23.6% strikeout rate and he has allowed a fair amount of premium contact. Opposing hitters have managed an 11.8% barrel rate and 39.5% hard hits but just a 2.73% home run rate and 87.5 mph of average exit velocity against the flyball pitcher. The Phillies lineup can exploit premium contact with the best of them, both of the team’s big lefties are above the magic number in our home run model, Bryce Harper has an 11.01 in our home run model and Kyle Schwarber is at 12.53. Harper has hit two home runs and is slashing .309/.377/.491 with a 137 WRC+ in his 61 plate appearances. Schwarber has hit 10 home runs with a .217 ISO in 187 plate appearances this year but is slashing .172/.305/.389 with a 90 WRC+. The two power hitters drive the Phillies offense, they hit behind Bryson Stott who has three home runs and five stolen bases in 190 plate appearances. The infielder is cheap at $4,400/$2,800 but has just an 88 WRC+ for the year while slashing .279/.316/.374. Star shortstop Trea Turner has been in a season-long slump, over his first 199 plate appearances he is slashing just .257/.302/.390 with a .134 ISO and 84 WRC+ this year, he hit 21 home runs with 27 stolen bases and a 128 WRC+ last season, there is significant room for a turnaround over his next 500 plate appearances this year. Harper is projected to hit third ahead of righty Nick Castellanos who has a 7.36 in our home run model. The outfielder costs just $4,700/$3,500 and has five home runs on the board already this year while slashing .300/.348/.471. Scharber hits between Castellanos and JT Realmuto who is a top catcher on most slates. Realmuto has hit three home runs and has a .199 ISO over 152 plate appearances this year, the backstop has a 6.19 in our home run model this afternoon. Alec Bohm has a 5.16, he has hit five home runs this year and has a sturdy 46.7% hard-hit rate for the year while adding a pair of stolen bases and creating runs exactly at league average. Brandon Marsh has four home runs and a .226 ISO with a 140 WRC+ in 149 opportunities this year, he was tearing the cover off the ball early in the season and he has a 48.2% hard-hit rate this year but costs just $3,900/$2,900. Edmundo Sosa has three home runs but has been 15% below average in creating runs over his 106 plate appearances.
Play: Phillies bats/stacks, Aaron Nola, and Cubs in smaller doses
Update Notes: The Cubs lineup runs Hoerner-Swanson-Happ-Suzuki-Trey Mancini-Wisdom-Mervis-Yan Gomes-Morel. Mancini is a good right-handed bat with power upside, and Gomes is a good cheap catcher who will probably be unpopular. Moving Wisdom up gives him a minor bump. The Phillies confirmed lineup runs Stott-Castellanos-Harper-Realmuto-Schwarber-Bohm-Marsh-Kody Clemens-Sosa, with Trea Turner getting a day off in a ding to the top of the lineup. Clemens is a cheap bat with power upside on the left side from the eighth spot.
Detroit Tigers (+106/4.67) @ Washington Nationals (-115/4.93)
The low-end matchup between the Tigers and Nationals has both teams pulling in reasonably high implied team totals with lousy pitching on both sides. Lefty Patrick Corbin is facing the Tigers for $5,800/$7,800, he has a 14% strikeout rate with a 4.65 ERA and 4.28 xFIP this season. Corbin has allowed 90.8 mph of average exit velocity and 44.8% hard hits so far this year but just a 3.15% home run rate which is an improvement from the 3.79% he allowed last year and the ugly 4.93% the year before. Corbin has allowed a significant amount of hard hits and barrels over the past few seasons, but he can find quality in odd spots and he projects in the middle of the board against the lousy Tigers lineup. Detroit’s active roster has been 10% worse than average creating runs against lefties this year and they have a .147 collective ISO. Matt Vierling is projected to lead off, he has a 77 WRC+ in 140 plate appearances with three home runs and four stolen bases this year. Javier Baez has hit three home runs and stolen three bases in 164 opportunities and he has a .100 ISO and 78 WRC+ on the right side of the plate. The former star shortstop has an 8.87 in our home run model and is one of the better options on this team despite the struggles. Riley Greene is a lefty who has been the team’s best hitter, he has four home runs and five stolen bases while slashing .296/.349/.432 with a 119 WRC+ over 175 opportunities. Spencer Torkelson has not been good, he has three home runs and a .123 ISO, and 76 WRC+ in 171 chances but at least comes cheap at $3,100/$2,800. Andy Ibanez is cheap at second and third base on DraftKings, he has made 58 plate appearances and has a 72 WRC+ but a robust 13.3% barrel rate and 57.8% hard-hit for the year. Eric Haase has hit just two home runs in 118 opportunities in 2023, he had 14 home runs in 351 trie last year and 22 in 381 the year before. Haase has a 7.04 in our home run model, he is the third-highest ranked Tigers hitter for home run upside and their second-highest ranked catcher behind Jake Rogers, who sits at 8.08 at the bottom of the lineup if he plays. Jonathan Schoop and Miguel Cabrera are getting free rides around the country for their farewell tour, the veterans have been largely inept at the plate with a 51 and 30 WRC+ for the season.
A similar situation exists on the mound for the Tigers and at the plate for the Nationals as what we saw on the other side of this one. Alex Faedo costs $6,100/$7,000 and has a 19.5% strikeout rate with a 4.22 ERA and 5.23 xFIP in the small sample. The righty struck out 18% and walked 10.2% over 53.2 innings and 12 starts in 2022 while coughing up 91.1 mph of average exit velocity and a 9.8% barrel rate. Faedo is a bit of a target on the mound, but the Nationals are bad and he could find upside at the cheap pricing as we have seen from low-end pitchers all season. As with the other value options, Faedo would provide access to otherwise unavailable stacking options, but he is not the prospect that Pfaadt is, nor is he discounted to the same level, other similarly-priced pitchers project at or above the level that Faedo does tonight, including Corbin on the other side of this lousy game. The Nationals lineup opens with Luis Garcia who is slashing .255/.301/.359 with a 79 WRC+ with three home runs and two stolen bases. Lane Thomas has six home runs and four stolen bases with a 111 WRC+ while slashing .281/.339/.437 as the team’s best hitter. Jeimer Candelario has five home runs and a .175 ISO while creating runs four percent below average, Joey Meneses has two home runs and is up to .294/.324/.390 but has been six percent below average for run creation, and Corey Dickerson has made just 13 plate appearances this year and was two percent below average in 297 opportunities last year. Keibert Ruiz has hit four home runs but has an 82 WRC+ in 162 plate appearances as a cheap catcher, Dominic Smith has been bad but is cheap at first base, he has one home run and a .039 ISO with a 95 WRC+. CJ Abrams and Alex Call round out the projected lineup, Abrams has been productive for counting stats with four homers and five steals in 157 plate appearances but he has been 20% below average for run creation, Call is 15% below average in creating runs over 173 opportunities.
Play: the bats are probably better than the arms but all four sides of this game are equally unappealing, each spot we examine also pulls upside from the lousy options they oppose.
Update Notes: the confirmed Tigers lineup runs as expected. The confirmed Nationals lineup has Smith hitting second behind Thomas followed by Meneses-Candelario-Dickerson-Ruiz-Ildemaro Vargas-Abrams-Call. None are good options, all are playable, nothing changes with the overall take.
Miami Marlins (+146/3.36) @ San Francisco Giants (-159/4.23)
The Marlins and Giants square off at fairly low run totals, with the visiting team checked to just 3.36 implied runs against excellent righty Logan Webb. The starter has been good throughout his career at keeping the ball on the ground and limiting home run power while pitching to good run marks and strong strikeout totals. Webb has a 24.7% strikeout rate over 59 innings and nine starts this season with a 3.20 ERA and 3.10 xFIP while posting a 30.2% CSW% and inducing just a 2.7-degree average launch angle. Webb struck out just 20.7% but pitched to a sharp 2.90 ERA and 3.32 xFIP in 192.1 innings in 32 starts last year, in 2021 he struck out 26.5% with a 3.03 ERA and 2.79 xFIP in 26 starts and 148.1 innings. For $10,600/$10,800, Webb is in play against the low-end Marlins lineup, he is the third-highest projected starter on our pitching board tonight. The Marlins lineup has been bad against righties this season, further pushing the upside for Webb. Miami’s active roster has just a 77 WRC+ and a .115 ISO in the split, both rank 29th out of 30 teams. The Marlins top-end would be the focus, but Webb’s ability to limit power is on display in the home run model, Jorge Soler, who has 11 home runs and a .268 ISO with a 19.1% barrel rate and 48.2% hard hits this season, lands at just 4.98 to lead the team. Soler hits second behind miscast leadoff man Jean Segura in the projected lineup, Segura has a 44 WRC+ and .268 on-base percentage for the season, which is not what one looks for in a leadoff hitter. Luis Arraez has the best hit tool in baseball, he is slashing .388/.440/.487 and should be the team’s leadoff hitter. Garrett Cooper has a 2.62 in our home run model, he is cheap but the power upside is very limited and he has only three home runs and a .136 ISO this season. Bryan De La Cruz has five home runs in the books with a quality 117 WRC+ in 157 plate appearances while slashing .293/.331/.463. De La Cruz has been a productive hitter, he has a 6.9% barrel rate and 44.1% hard-hit mark and costs just $3,500/$2,700. Joey Wendle has not done much at the plate this year, Peyton Burdick has a bit of power upside, he hit four home runs in 102 plate appearances last year and has a 13.3% barrel rate and 60% hard-hit in his 35 plate appearances this season. Nick Fortes and Garrett Hampson round out the projected Marlins lineup at a 44 and 82 WRC+ in 88 and 82 chances.
The Giants lineup is the better option between these two teams, but Braxton Garrett has been decent on the mound in spots this season and he has the talent to get through them cleanly while finding strikeouts. The lefty has a 21.8% strikeout rate in 36.2 innings and seven starts so far this year while pitching to a 5.40 ERA but a much better 3.64 xFIP. Garrett struck out 24.1% in 88 innings and 17 starts last season while pitching to a 3.58 ERA and 3.51 xFIP. The Giants lineup typically runs in a platoon-heavy approach, so Garrett will have to get through a number of stout right-handed hitters, but he can also reach a strikeout ceiling against the free-swinging club. The Giants’ active roster has a 27.2% strikeout rate against lefties with a 96 WRC+ so far this season and Garrett costs just $6,300/$7,200, there is upside for the starter at those prices but he projects just in the lower-middle of the board. The Giants lineup opens with Thairo Estrada with six home runs while slashing .312/.361/.482 with a .171 ISO and 133 WRC+. Wilmer Flores has always mashed left-handed pitching, he is projected to hit second in the lineup and has six home runs with a .211 ISO this year. Mitch Haniger is another right-handed masher in the lineup but he has scuffled badly over his first 72 plate appearances this year. Haniger has hit two home runs but is slashing just .203/.222/.333 with a .130 ISO and he has created runs 53% worse than average this season. The star outfielder hit 11 home runs in 247 plate appearances last year but has missed a ton of time with injury, he had a full season of 691 plate appearances in 2021 and he crushed 39 home runs. JD Davis has a 51.5% hard-hit rate this season with seven home runs and a 129 WRC+, he has been excellent in a full-time role and is slashing .286/.359/.474. Michael Conforto has hit eight home runs in 157 plate appearances and he has a 10.4% barrel rate and 46.9% hard-hit for the year but has been otherwise lousy, he is priced at just $3,300/$3,100 in the same-handed matchup. Casey Schmitt has hit two home runs with a .250 ISO in 40 plate appearances and is cheap in the sixth spot in the lineup. Patrick Bailey is projected to his seventh as a minimum-priced catcher on both sites. LaMonte Wade Jr. drops in the lineup with a major loss of quality against left-handed pitching, he has seven home runs but is ineffective against southpaws in general. Bryce Johnson closes the projected lineup, he has not been productive at the Major League level in his brief career.
Play: Logan Webb, Braxton Garrett, Giants bats/stacks in small doses
Update Notes: the Marlins lineup has Jon Berti in the leadoff role, he has an 88 WRC+ for the season with seven steals after leading the league with 41 stolen bases last year. Soler-Arraez-Cooper-De La Cruz-Wendle-Fortes-Hampson-Xavier Edwards follows. Edwards is a blazing-fast speed prospect with a decent hit tool who costs just $2,200/$2,400 at second base with added outfield eligibility on DraftKings, if he gets on he is stealing a base. The confirmed Giants lineup runs as anticipated.
Milwaukee Brewers (+179/3.36) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-196/4.73)
Veteran righty Zach Eflin has been off to a very good start in his first season with the Rays after spending several seasons with Philadelphia as a “good with a ceiling for more” starter. Eflin has unlocked some of that potential over his first 40 innings and seven starts this year, he has a 27.7% strikeout rate and a 3.1% walk rate while pitching to a 3.38 ERA and 3.03 xFIP this year. Eflin has induced an 11.8% swinging-strike rate with an excellent 31.3% CSW% this season, he has allowed a bit of power at a 3.77% home run rate on 38.5% hard hits with a 10.1% barrel rate to this point in the season, but the good has mostly outweighed the mediocre with a near-total lack of bad. Eflin has a bit of upside against the Brewers, who he is keeping in check at just 3.59 implied runs, the righty projects as our fourth-highest pitching option for $10,000/$10,200 this afternoon. The Brewers projected lineup opens with Christian Yelich who has an 8.8% barrel rate and a fantastic 57.9% hard-hit rate this season. Yelich has hit seven home runs with nine stolen bases while creating runs five percent better than average over 174 opportunities. The lefty remains cheap at $4,700/$3,200 atop the lineup, he is a good option in most matchups and can certainly get to Eflin. Jesse Winker has been downright bad this season, he is slashing just .247/.369/.282 with zero home runs and a .035 ISO. Willy Adames is a star shortstop who has a 12.8% barrel rate and seven home runs on the season but he is otherwise slashing just .211/.305/.373 with an 86 WRC+ in 189 opportunities. Rowdy Tellez is a left-handed masher who can potentially exploit the contact that Eflin has allowed or any mistakes he might make. Tellez has 10 home runs with a .264 ISO and a 12% barrel rate this season. William Contreras is a good catcher who costs just $3,900/$2,900, he has three home runs and a 101 WRC+ this year. Brian Anderson has a 10.8% barrel rate but just a 29.4% hard-hit rate with six home runs while creating runs exactly at league average this year. Brice Turang and Joey Weimer are lower-end options late in the lineup, but Turang has three home runs and seven stolen bases while Weimer has four home runs and five steals. Tyrone Taylor slots between them in the projected lineup, he has not been good over 53 plate appearances but he has sneaky power upside after 17 home runs in 405 plate appearances last year and he costs just $2,100/$2,500 in a bad spot.
The Brewers will have lefty Eric Lauer on the mound, he may as well be tied up on a conveyor belt heading toward the meat grinder that is the Rays lineup this season. Lauer has a 22.9% strikeout rate and an untenable 10.6% walk rate this year, he has pitched to a 4.54 ERA and 4.95 xFIP in 39.2 innings and seven starts. The southpaw has given up too much power and premium contact this year, coughing up a 5.88% home run rate on 91.5 mph of average exit velocity, 44.2% hard hits, and a 12.4% barrel rate to opposing hitters. The Rays look like an excellent lineup, they are one of only a few teams with better than a five-run implied team total tonight and they project very well for power upside and run creation. The team is also getting Yandy Diaz back at the top of their confirmed lineup tonight. Diaz has been a star for the Rays this season, he is slashing .321/.429/.593 with 10 home runs and a .271 ISO. Diaz has a 187 WRC+ for the season in 168 plate appearances with a 12.9% barrel rate and 58.6% hard-hit rate for the year. Diaz was good and underrated coming into this season, but nothing like this was expected, he has been outrageous since opening day and justifiably costs $5,100/$3,600. Wander Franco is a star shortstop, Randy Arozarena is a star in the outfield, they hit second and fourth in the projected lineup and have 17 combined home runs and 18 combined stolen bases. Franco has 14 of the steals, and Arozarena has 10 of the home runs, both players should be in most stacks of Rays hitters regardless of price. Harold Ramirez slots in between the two stars for just $4,000/$3,100 despite a ridiculous .319/.367/.529 start to the season with six home runs and a .210 ISO while creating runs 53% better than average. Isaac Paredes has six home runs in 155 plate appearances and he has created runs 37% better than average this season. Paredes has significant power upside but his six home runs have come in spite of just a 2.7% barrel rate and 28.6% hard hits, he has upside for more. Christian Bethancourt is an under-appreciated catcher option for power, but he is down to a 99 WRC+ in 102 plate appearances, he has hit six home runs this year. Taylor Walls has hit seven home runs and stolen nine bsaes while creating runs 53% better than average in 118 opportunities but is generally playing above his head early in the year. Walls made 466 plate appearances last season and slashed .172/.268/.285 with a 66 WRC+. Manuel Margot has an 89 WRC+ with two home runs in 117 plate appearances, Jose Siri has hit six home runs and stolen four bases and finds ways to contribute MLB DFS scoring from the last spot in the lineup frequently. The outfielder costs just $2,800/$3,100 despite a 126 WRC+ in 84 plate appearances.
Play: Rays bats/stacks, Zach Eflin
Update Notes: the Rays lineup was confirmed in the original draft. the Brewers lineup is as projected with the exception of Victor Caratini stepping in for Contreras at catcher and Owen Miller slotting in seventh ahead of Turang and Taylor and Weimer out of the lineup. The run total in this game is down a half-run to 8.0 since this morning.
New York Yankees (-145/5.79) @ Cincinnati Reds (+133/4.84)
The Yankees are in a great hitting environment in Cincinnati tonight with a matchup against righty Luke Weaver, who has yielded a massive 6.67% home run rate in five starts and 27.1 innings this year. Weaver has allowed a 47.6% hard-hit rate with a 13.1% barrel rate and 91.4 mph of average exit velocity while pitching to a 6.26 ERA and a 4.53 xFIP. Weaver has struck out 22.5% of opposing hitters this year, matching the rate he posted in 13 starts and 65.2 innings in 2021 while also giving up too much power. Weaver has been a targetable pitcher for several seasons, the Yankees are a prime option for stacking and individual power upside tonight. The projected lineup opens with Gleyber Torres who has an 8.37 in our home run model, he has six in the books from early in the season but has been more of a correlated scoring piece in recent weeks. Torres is sitting at .248/.339/.418 with a .170 ISO and 111 WRC+ for $4,700/$3,200. Aaron Judge should not need to be sold when it comes to power upside. The Yankees superstar has 13 home runs in 160 plate appearances this season with a massive .346 ISO on a 27.9% barrel rate and 61.6% hard-hit rate, he carries a team-leading 15.83 in our home run model and looks like a terrific play for another long ball tonight. Anthony Rizzo has 10 home runs and a .218 ISO as the second-best power hitter in this lineup, Rizzo slots in with a 10.66 in the home run model and is the only other player over the magic number in the highly-rated lineup. DJ LeMahieu has just a 5.58 in the home run model, but he has been driving the ball and creating runs regularly this year and is a key component in stacks who happens to play multiple positions at a cheap price. LeMahieu is slashing .260/.335/.432 with five home runs and a 114 WRC+ and costs just $3,600/$3,000 with eligibility at first and third base on DraftKings and adding second base on FanDuel. Lefty Jake Bauers lands in the fifth spot in the projected lineup, he has a pair of home runs and a .167 ISO in 43 plate appearances. Harrison Bader has made 59 plate appearances with three home runs and two stolen bases on the board. Bader has a .232 ISO and 130 WRC+ in the small sample and he has been putting the ball in play regularly with just a 10.2% strikeout rate. Anthony Volpe has seven home runs and 13 stolen bases in what is starting to look like a productive rookie campaign. The shortstop is still slashing just .216/.306/.395 with a .179 ISO and 96 WRC+ but the counting stats are solid and there is more productivity to come. Oswaldo Cabrera has not been productive at the plate this year, he has created runs 42% worse than average over 149 plate appearances in a utility role, he has three home runs and five stolen bases and comes cheap at the end of a lineup that is in an excellent spot, but he may also lose this job before game time. Cabrera is in danger of getting sent down to make room for newly reacquired outfielder Greg Allen, who was traded from the Red Sox and is expected to join the team tonight. If Allen slots into this spot he is an interesting option who can hit for low-end power and has significant speed, he would be a better player than Cabrera for MLB DFS purposes in general. Ben Rortvedt is slotted into the ninth spot to do the catching with Jose Trevino injured, but Kyle Higashioka is the better bat at the position.
The confirmed Reds lineup opens with Jonathan India, who has been one of the team’s top bats at .290/.382/.420 with a 117 WRC+ over 191 plate appearances this year. The second baseman costs $6,000/$3,500, the DraftKings price seems out of place for this player despite a general shortage of talent at second base. Shortstop Matt McLain is showing power with an 11.53 in our home run model against Yankees righty Jhony Brito, who has been lousy for power so far this season and is not a high-end Major League starter. Brito has pitched to a 5.20 ERA and 5.41 xFIP this season while striking out just 15.1% of opposing hitters with a 1.43 WHIP while allowing an 11.8% barrel rate and 3.77% home run rate. The pitcher costs just $5,000/$6,500, at that low a DraftKings price he is a playable option, but the game is carrying a 10.5-run total as by far the highest on the board and the hitting environment is terrible for pitchers. McLain was out overall home run pick today despite just 13 Major League plate appearances and zero home runs so far in his short career. Lefty Jake Fraley has hit five home runs and stolen six bases but he has just a 30.1% hard-hit rate for the season in 139 plate appearances over which he has still managed to create runs 19% better than average. Spencer Steer has five home runs with a 106 WRC+ with a .183 ISO and 40.5% hard-hit rate this season. Tyler Stephenson is an affordable catcher with two home runs in 171 plate appearances, he has a 5.45 in our home run model with potential for power in this matchup and ballpark. Nick Senzel has been good to start the season, he has created runs three percent better than average and has four home runs and three stolen bases, if he can stay healthy he might have potential for a decent season. Wil Myers has disappointed badly so far this season but he has upside for power in this ballpark against Brito. Myers has a 7.27 in our home run model as a sneaky late-lineup option when going to Reds hitters. Jose Barrero and Luke Maile round out the confirmed Reds lineup, the shortstop costs $2,600/$2,400 and has a 69 WRC+ in 112 opportunities, Maile has made just 39 plate appearances but has two home runs as a $2,400/$2,300 catcher.
Play: Yankees bats/stacks, Reds bats/stacks
Update Notes: the Yankees lineup runs Torres-Judge-Rizzo-LeMahieu-Bader-Bauers-Volpe-Isiah Kiner-Falefa-Rortvedt, Cabrera was spared and the Yankees finally cut bait on Aaron Hicks to open the spot for Allen, but none of them are in the lineup. The Reds lineup was confirmed in the original draft.
Cleveland Guardians (+134/3.68) @ New York Mets (-145/4.41)
This game has been postponed.
Play:
Update Notes:
Oakland Athletics (+257/3.35) @ Houston Astros (-290/5.79)
The final game on the slate has no weather concerns with the Athletics in Houston to play the heavily favored Astros. Houston has rookie Hunter Brown on the mound, the righty has a 25.1% strikeout rate and a 9.1% walk rate over 44.2 innings in eight starts in his first full season, he has been very good this year. Brown has a 3.43 ERA and 3.61 xFIP for the season and he has limited home runs to just 1.60% despite a 7.6% barrel rate, 45.4% hard hits, and a 91.1 mph average exit velocity allowed. Brown is pushing a bit of potential in the Athletics’ direction in our home run model, but he has been talented enough to pitch through the contact so far this season and he is reliably good at keeping the ball down with a 5.3-degree average launch angle allowed. At $9,600 on both sites, the righty is a terrific option on both sites, he is our highest-projected pitcher and he should be heavily utilized around the industry this afternoon. The low-end Athletics have just a 3.22-run implied team total and are coming in as +246 underdogs against Brown. Esteury Ruiz has stolen 21 bases in 203 plate appearances while creating runs 10% better than average and he has been getting on base at a .347 clip this season. Ruiz is a good speed and correlated scoring option atop the lineup but the spot is not great. Ryan Noda is a lefty who has hit four home runs with a 141 WRC+ and .200 ISO in 144 plate appearances with a 12.5% barrel rate and 42.2% hard hits for the year, he costs just $2,700/$2,800 and would be an option if going to stacks of Athletics. Brent Rooker has 11 illusory home runs so far this season with a .301 ISO and 173 WRC+ with a 19.1% barrel rate and 52.1% hard-hit for the season that makes him look like an elite hitter, which he is not. Our ongoing Rooker watch has him at .215/.320/.385 with a .169 ISO and 104 WRC+ and just two home runs in 75 plate appearances since the calendar flipped to May. While he has not been damaging to those who have rostered him with those numbers, the production is nowhere near what some may have expected after the hitter’s outrageous April. Rooker’s strikeout rate is the most telling mark, while he was excelling in March and April he managed to strike out at just an 18.6% clip despite a higher than 36% whiff rate against all types of pitches. Since the start of May, Rooker’s strikeout rate has jumped to 33.3%, which is about what should be expected going forward. Rooker is the May player, not the April player. Shea Langeliers is a good catcher who has seven home runs and a .199 ISO in 153 plate appearances this year for just $3,200/$2,800. Jace Peterson has an 87 WRC+ with three home runs in 141 plate appearances. Ramon Laureano has middling power and speed, he has hit five home runs and stolen three bases and has a .218 ISO over 126 plate appearances. JJ Bleday costs just $2,900/$2,000, at the minimum price he is an interesting power bat late in the lineup on the blue site, but the Athletics are not a great option tonight against Brown. Tony Kemp and Nick Allen round out the confirmed lineup in a low-end style.
The Astros are carrying a 5.41 implied team total against lefty JP Sears who has been better in recent outings, but is probably overmatched against the elite and fully healthy Astros lineup. Sears has struck out 24.6% of opposing hitters with a five percent walk rate this season but he has a 5.27 ERA and 4.70 xFIP. The lefty has induced a very good 12.8% swinging-strike rate this year but he has allowed a lot of power with a 6.15% home run rate and 11.5% barrels in his eight starts and 42.2 innings. In his last start, Sears limited the ridiculous Rangers lineup to two runs while striking out six, but he allowed a home run in that outing and has given up at least one in seven of eight starts. The confirmed Astros lineup includes Jose Altuve in the leadoff spot, the All-Star second baseman did not produce in five plate appearances in his season debut last night, but he hit 28 home runs, stole 18 bases, and created runs 64% better than average with a .233 ISO last year, so he’s OK. Alex Bregman has hit six home runs while creating runs one percent better than average and scuffling in his triple-slash for the season so far, but the turnaround may come with the return of Altuve. Yordan Alvarez is cheap for him at $5,800/$4,300, he has nine home runs while slashing .291/.388/.553 with a .262 ISO this season. Alvarez has a 10.50 in our home run model and does not suffer in same-handed matchups, if he is under-owned by the field because he is facing a lefty that only adds to his already significant value. Jose Abreu is still searching for his first home run since last August, he is carrying a 52 WRC+ and .042 ISO in 179 plate appearances this year. Kyle Tucker has hit seven home runs and has a .192 ISO and 129 WRC+ over 184 plate appearances. The outfielder is another lefty who loses nothing against southpaws, he is a great option this afternoon against Sears with a 7.32 in our home run model for just $5,200/$3,100. Jeremy Pena is a productive shortstop but he has slipped to a 99 WRC+ with the same six home runs and six stolen bases we have been mentioning for a couple of weeks. He is cheap at $4,800/$3,100 and makes for a playable alternative at what should be lower ownership late in the star-laden lineup. Chas McCormick has two home runs and a 112 WRC+ in 68 plate appearances, he is pricey at $3,500 on FanDuel but inexpensive at the same number on DraftKings. Corey Julks lands at $2,400/$2,600 with a .099 ISO and 74 WRC+ over 115 plate appearances. Catcher Martin Maldonado closes out the lineup with any given slate power potential but he is slashing just .182/.277/.273 with two home runs, a .091 ISO and 58 WRC+.
Play: Astros bats/stacks, Hunter Brown both aggressively, contrarian Athletics hitters can be used in very small doses, Sears is unlikely but moderately capable, he should be cheaper to be a true value option.
Update Notes: both lineups were confirmed in the original draft. The run total in this game is up a half-run to 9.0 since this morning.
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