A deep interesting giant 12-game MLB DFS slate gets underway at 7:05 ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel this evening and there are a ton of high-quality options for lineup construction.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Summary – 5/26/23
San Diego Padres (-111/4.89) @ New York Yankees (+103/4.71)
The Padres are in the Bronx to face rookie Randy Vasquez who will be making his MLB debut. Vazquez is a top-10 organizational prospect for New York, but a mid-level prospect overall. The righty has made nine AAA starts this year with a 4.64 xFIP and 4.85 ERA and a 25.5% strikeout rate in the books at the time of his call-up. Vasquez struck out 24.2% in 115.1 AA innings last year, pitching to a 3.90 ERA and 4.10 xFIP. Vasquez is not available on FanDuel but costs only $4,000 on the DraftKings slate. He is flashing a lot of power in the direction of the Padres lineup and the Yankees were originally toying with the idea of utilizing him in bulk relief after an opener, so he may be on a very short leash. Manager Aaron Boone is one with a particularly quick hook when it comes to young starters, so Vasquez would have to find significant strikeout value quickly. Still, at such a low price with the idea of at least a handful of fantasy points available, he would not be off the board at $4,000 as a value SP2. That said, Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks second among all players in our home run model with a 20.13, doubling up the magic number for power tonight. The Padres lineup would be the greatly preferred side of the matchup. Tatis costs $6,100/$3,600 and is a better buy on FanDuel for the discount and added shortstop eligibility. Jake Cronenworth is a mid-range correlated scoring play with some individual upside, he hit 17 home runs and created runs 10% better than average last year and is now at a 101 WRC+ for this season with five home runs. Cronenworth sees increased value hitting in the second spot in the lineup while Manny Machado remains sidelined. If you haven’t noticed, Juan Soto‘s hit tool seems to have returned from oblivion, the slugging outfielder never stopped mashing or creating runs, but now he is hitting for average again as well, with his triple-slash climbing to .262/.423/.494 with a .233 ISO and 155 WRC+. Soto hits for a ton of power and gets on base via walks better than almost anyone in the league, he has struck out a bit more this season but his premium contact levels are elite at 15.2% barrels and a 58.4% hard-hit rate. Soto is cheap at $5,700/$3,600. Xander Bogaerts is a premium shortstop option hitting cleanup in the projected lineup, he is slashing just .254/.347/.405 with a .151 ISO but has still created runs 13% better than average for the season despite slumping after carrying the team through April. Matt Carpenter has a 7.76 in our home run model with a believable upside for power in a ballpark that he starred in during 154 odd plate appearances after returning from the dead last season. Carpenter has four home runs with just a .188/.317/.376 triple-slash this season but he is cheap at $3,000/$2,600. Rougned Odor has multi-position eligibility at second base and in the outfield for a cheap price on both sites, the lefty has a bit of upside in Yankee Stadium, but the days of him being a reliably productive option are gone. Brandon Dixon, Trent Grisham, and Austin Nola round out the projected lineup, Grisham is the most interesting with a .174 ISO and 94 WRC+, and five home runs but he is slashing just .194/.313/.368.
The Yankees are facing righty Joe Musgrove, who missed the first month of the season after dropping a weight on his toe early in Spring Training. Musgrove has not been great since returning to the lineup. Over five starts and 24 innings, the right-handed veteran has a 6.75 ERA and unsightly 4.77 xFIP with a 22.3% strikeout rate, and he has allowed a 5.36% home run rate on 10.5% barrels and a 40.8% hard-hit rate. Musgrove has been a star-caliber starter the past few seasons, give or take. The righty had a 24.9% strikeout rate last year and a 27.1% mark the year before, pitching to a 2.93 ERA and 3.47 xFIP in 2022 and a 3.18 ERA with a 3.65 xFIP in 2021. In the small sample this year, Musgrove has induced an 11.3% swinging-strike rate, which is in line with his production from last season, but his CSW% has dipped from 30.8% last year and 31.4% the year before to just 26.6% this season. When he gets back to throwing more strikes, Musgrove should round into form, he could find that upside tonight against an aggressive Yankees lineup that has holes in the bottom third. For just $7,500 on both sites, Musrove is in play on this slate but he does not project as one of the top options. The Yankees lineup can be played against the righty with mid-level expectations. Gleyber Torres is valuable at second base, given the position’s general lack of depth, and when he is hitting ahead of the Yankees’ power core of Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo. Judge has 14 home runs with a gargantuan .342 ISO while creating runs 78% better than average, Rizzo has hit 11 homers with a .212 ISO while creating runs 49% better than average. The first baseman carried the team while Judge was out a few weeks ago and he has been a star at his position for years, but Rizzo still costs just $5,000/$3,300 tonight. DJ LeMahieu has been hitting the ball hard but his strikeout rate has doubled year-over-year, he is cheap at $2,600/$2,800, with eligibility only at third base on DraftKings but at three positions on the blue site. Harrison Bader has five home runs and four stolen bases while creating runs 19% better than average and playing elite center field defense. Bader has been a catalyst for the Yankees offense since his return, he costs $3,800/$3,300 and is a decent value piece when stacking this team against a quality pitcher. Jake Bauers, Anthony Volpe, Kyle Higashioka, and Oswaldo Cabrera round out the projected Yankees lineup, Volpe and Higashioka are the two interesting names. Volpe has hit seven home runs and stolen 13 bases, but he has slipped back below the Mendoza line. Higashioka has three home runs and is also below the Mendoza line at .181/.244/.347 with a 62 WRC+. The catcher makes excellent contact at the plate however, he has a 17.8% barrel rate and 55.6% hard-hit rate in 78 plate appearances, when he connects Higashioka has cheap low-owned power. Bauers can hit one out but he has scuffled badly and has never hit with consistency at this level, Cabrera is a low-end utility player.
Play: Padres bats/stacks, some Joe Musgrove, Yankees bats/stacks in small doses, a few $4,000 Vasquez SP2 darts with a significant amount of risk
Update Notes: the confirmed Padres lineup runs mostly as expected with Odor ahead of Carpenter 5-6. The Yankees have Willie Calhoun instead of Bauers and Ben Rortvedt instead of Higashioka, both are minor downgrades. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is a lateral move from also-bad Cabrera.
Texas Rangers (+123/4.24) @ Baltimore Orioles (-133/4.85)
The Rangers hard-hitting high-scoring lineup is somewhat in check with just a 4.03-run implied team total against rookie Grayson Rodriguez, who has been mostly decent to start his career for Baltimore. Rodriguez has a 6.21 ERA but his xFIP tells the story of a much better pitcher who has gotten a bit lucky with the long ball as he settles in at this level. Rodriguez has a 3.82 xFIP and a 26.2% strikeout rate, he has walked too many at 9.4% and his WHIP is not pretty at 1.64 but his 10.5% swinging-strike rate is good. The main issue that has hurt Rodriguez has been power and premium contact, he has allowed a 10.6% barrel rate with a whopping 52% hard-hit percentage and 91.7 mph of average exit velocity. The righty has given up a 5.24% home run rate in his nine starts and 42 innings with up and down results game by game. Rodriguez has four games in which he has allowed two or more home runs, but also four in which he gave up zero and just one with only one allowed. When he has made mistakes they have been big and loud, but otherwise Rodriguez is a talented young pitcher who is one of the most highly-regarded young arms in the league. At $8,300/$7,900 it is probably not necessary to chase shares of the Orioles’ righty, a few would be fine on either site, but he is facing a very good team on a deep slate and his numbers are showing power upside for the Rangers’ top-6. Marcus Semien has a 12.04 in our home run model, and Corey Seager is a tiny step ahead of his double-play partner with a 12.05. The duo hits for more power than any other middle-infield pair in the league, they have a combined 11 home runs, with Semien carrying eight of them while Seager has three after missing a large chunk of the early season. Using second base and shortstop shares on this pair is rarely a mistake, there is an upside in the matchup tonight with the amount of power on display in our model, despite the relatively low Vegas run total. Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia are also pulling in good marks for power in our model, Lowe has five home runs and a 132 WRC+ for the season, and Garcia has created runs 30% better than average while hitting 14 home runs with a .276 ISO on a 15.8% barrel rate and 54% hard hits. Lowe is cheap at $4,300/$3,200, Garcia is a star for $5,400/$4,300. Josh Jung has 11 home runs with a .224 ISO and 124 WRC+ and has cut his strikeout rate to 29.9%, which is still very high but is a big step forward from a young slugger who was at an unsustainable 38.2% last year. Jonah Heim is a strong value play at catcher, he has a 9.8% barrel rate with six home runs while creating runs 16% better than average in his 169 plate appearances. Robbie Grossman and Leody Taveras bookend Ezequeil Duran in the bottom third of the lineup. Taveras has been more interesting than Grossman this season with a 119 WRC+ in 140 plate appearances, but it is Duran who has been a highly productive player for the Rangers through most of the season. The multi-positional infielder is slashing .301/.340/.515 with seven home runs and three steals.
The visitors will have righty Jon Gray on the mound to face the Orioles tonight. Gray has made nine starts and thrown 50.2 innings this year, he has an appealing ERA on the surface at 3.02 but his 4.79 xFIP betrays the true nature of those outings. Gray has not been quite up to snuff so far this season, his strikeouts are well down from 25.7% last year to just 18.4% with a dip in swinging strikes and CSW%. The veteran right-hander has allowed a touch of premium contact as well, his barrels are up from 6.1% last year to 8.2% this season with a 3.40% home run rate allowed in the small sample. It is not worth overreacting to the home runs or contact numbers just yet, those are wonky stats that will level over time, but the lack of strikeout upside is a bit of a concern for Gray. The righty appears to be working in his changeup a bit more frequently, with good success, the pitch has not been hit hard and is generating a solid whiff rate, but the whiff rate on Gray’s slider has dipped from 40.6% last year to 34.9% this season. At $8,100/$8,700 there is enough potential for Gray to have a good start in this outing, he has a long enough track record that the expectation should remain that his above-average strikeout stuff will return, but the Orioles are also not the easiest team to sit down via the punchout. Cedric Mullins leads off, he has eight home runs and 13 stolen bases while striking out just 17.3% of the time and walking at an 11.5% clip to set the pace for this team. Adley Rutschman is an elite catcher who has struck out just 13.8% of the time with an outstanding 17.8% walk rate this season. The backstop has seven home runs and has created runs 27% better than average this season. Anthony Santander hits from both sides and has eight home run with a .205 ISO and a 10.1% barrel rate for just $4,200/$3,200 in the outfield. Ryan Mountcastle is a major power bat in the heart of the lineup, he has a 17.2% barrel rate and 46.5% hard-hit rate this season and is one of the more aggressive swingers in the lineup with a 23.6% strikeout rate this season. Mountcastle has hit 11 home runs and has a .224 ISO but he is sitting at just a 97 WRC+ over 220 plate appearances. Adam Frazier is a quality value play in the heart of the lineup for just $2,700 on both sites. Frazier has six home runs and six stolen bases and is a good option for correlated scoring. Austin Hays has been hitting the ball very hard this season, he has a 12.4% barrel rate while slashing .307/.349/.485 and creating runs 31% better than average. Gunnar Henderson is striking out at a 30.5% clip but walking 16.8% of the time while slashing .210/.347/.391 with five home runs and a 110 WRC+, he has been valuable despite the oddly constructed output as he figures things out at the plate. Terrin Vavra and Jorge Mateo round out the lineup, Mateo is now 12% below the league average for run creation in a huge tumble after an elite April.
Play: Rangers bats/stacks, Jon Gray, minor shares of Orioles bats/stacks
Update Notes: the Rangers have Josh H. Smith in for Duran and hitting sixth between Jung and Grossman, Sandy Leon is in for Heim in a downgrade at catcher and a minor overall downgrade to Rangers stacks. Baltimore has Ryan O’Hearn hitting eighth instead of Vavra. the run total is up a half-run to 9.0 since this morning.
St. Louis Cardinals (+104/3.96) @ Cleveland Guardians (-113/4.13)
Guardians righty Shane Bieber is another on a long list of veteran starters who are not pitching quite up to par but have also perhaps not been quite as bad as public perception may suggest. Bieber has made 10 starts this season with a highpoint of nine strikeouts and a low point of three, but he has managed to strike out only four in seven of those outings, totaling just a 17.8% rate for the season. That mark is down dramatically from the 25% strikeout rate that Bieber posted last season over 31 starts as well as the elite 33.1% that he had in 16 outings prior to his injury in 2021. The righty has lost about three percentage points on his swinging-strike rate with his CSW% coming down accordingly. Despite the lack of strikeouts, Bieber has pitched to a 3.08 ERA and 4.15 xFIP this season with a 2.65% home run rate despite 8.5% barrels and a 50.2% hard-hit rate with 93 mph of average exit velocity. Between the premium contact that Bieber is allowing and the sheer amount of contact available with the disappearance of his strikeout stuff, it seems like Bieber has actually been somewhat lucky, but he has been pitching deep into ball games in almost every start and has only given up more than three earned runs just once. St. Louis has been the league’s third-best team for run creation against right-handed pitching this season with a collective 116 WRC+ for the active roster. They rank ninth with a .183 ISO and are striking out at just a 20.1% rate in the split, which could be the most problematic piece of the puzzle for Bieber. While it would not be a total mistake to show the former ace a bit of faith at $9,200/$9,800 in a few lineups, Bieber is simply not the same pitcher he once was, he does not project well, falling below the midpoint on our pitching board, and he is in a terrible matchup, the Cardinals lineup is the better side of this coin. Lars Nootbaar leads off with a sturdy left-handed bat. The outfielder has four home runs and five steals in 168 plate appearances while creating runs 23% better than average. Nootbaar is very cheap ahead of Paul Goldschmidt and the Nolans. Goldschmidt has nine home runs while creating runs 53% better than average and slashing .292/.401/.516 with a .224 ISO, he remains an elite option at first base in most matchups. The first Nolan, second base powerhouse Nolan Gorman, hits from the left side with terrific results. He has 13 home runs and a massive .316 ISO while creating runs 71% better than average over 180 plate appearances that are quickly turning him into a star slugger at his position. Gorman has a 15.6% barrel rate and 49.5% hard-hit for the season, he has been excellent and has a solid mark in our home run model against Bieber in this spot. Nolan Arenado is the second of his name in the lineup, the veteran star came roaring back to life after a slow start, he has nine home runs and has created runs three percent better than average over 213 extremely erratic plate appearances. Willson Contreras is a high-end catcher, he has five home runs and his contact profile is still strong with an 11.1% barrel rate and 48.9% hard-hit rate. The premium contact and spot in a productive lineup keep Contreras involved despite a lousy .228/.310/.378 triple-slash this year. Brendan Donovan has a 94 WRC+ with four home runs and three stolen bases, Paul DeJong has been mashing since his return to the lineup, he has a .315 ISO and eight home runs in only 101 plate appearances this season, and Tommy Edman is a quality option for mid-range power and speed. Lefty Alec Burelson closes out the lineup, he has bene 16% below average for run creation so ar this season with just three home runs and a .145 ISO.
Lefty Matthew Liberatore will be making his second start and third appearance of the season tonight. The young southpaw shut out the Brewers over five innings while striking out six but walking three in his first start on the 17th, then he made a one-inning relief appearance on the 21st, allowing two earned runs on a walk and a hit while striking out one Dodgers hitter. Liberatore should be expected to go above five innings against a scuffling Guardians lineup that ranks 29th out of 30 teams with a collective 75 WRC+ against lefties this season. Cleveland has been bad against both hands overall, Liberatore has a bit of an upside at $7,100/$7,700 against this team in large tournaments. Steven Kwan has been eight percent below average creating runs while slashing .254/.342/.339 in a major step down for a player who was a good correlated scoring play last year. Amed Rosario has just one home run and a 65 WRC+ in a big disappointment so far. Jose Ramirez has hit only six homers and stolen five bases in 201 plate appearances, though his WRC+ is still at 112 for the year. Josh Bell has a 7.1% barrel rate and 42.1% hard-hit rate with just three home runs and a .116 ISO to show for it in 194 plate appearances. Gabriel Arias, David Fry, Tyler Freeman, Mike Zunino, and Myles Straw round out the projected lineup, no wonder this team has not been good. Zunino is probably the most interesting name for the sheer multiple home run upside he carries in any game, but he has hit only three this season with a 39.1% hard-hit rate and 8.7% barrels in 107 plate appearances. The Guardians are a low-end option for stacking or for drawing one-off bats, even if one does not play the Liberatore side of the equation for value, this seems like a spot that can be largely left to the public.
Play: Cardinals bats/stacks, a bit of Matthew Liberatore value, Shane Bieber in small doses
Update Notes: The Cardinals lineup looks as expected. The Guardians lineup includes Josh Naylor who was not in the projected lineup and adds a left-handed power bat to the lineup. Naylor has not been as good as expected this season but he does have seven home runs and a 44.6% hard-hit rate for a cheap price. the run total is up in Vegas by a half-run to 8.0 since this morning.
Philadelphia Phillies (+133/4.60) @ Atlanta Braves (-144/5.50)
The Phillies are pulling in strong marks for power in a matchup against lefty Jared Shuster who costs $6,100/$7,300. Shuster has allowed a 91.7 mph average exit velocity and 42.1% hard hits in his four starts and 19.2 innings this season while striking out just 17.6% and walking 14.1% with a 5.49 ERA and 6.01 xFIP. The lefty does not seem like a viable option for MLB DFS use on the mound tonight, but he is pushing solid numbers for power and run-creation potential in the direction of Phillies bats. The home team is carrying an even higher total, but the 4.57 mark for the visitors is certainly a playable point on the value spectrum tonight. The Phillies have a talented lineup from top to bottom, Bryson Stott is projected to be in the leadoff role for a cheap price, he has five home runs and five stolen bases in 214 plate appearances and is sitting just below average with a 98 WRC+ for the season. Trea Turner is a star on the right side of the plate and he comes in very cheap for his talent level and shortstop positioning at just $5,000/$2,800. Turner has five homers and six steals this year, he has been well below average for run creation in his 222 plate appearances and now carries a 78 WRC+ but we simply know that this is a better player than that. Turner is cheap, take the discount and run with it without worrying about the past eight weeks or so. Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber are a three-man wrecking crew in the heart of the lineup. Harper and Schwarber hit from the left side but should not be skipped for same-handed matchups against this lefty, they both look fine and they have a 13.26 and 15.13 respectively in our home run model tonight. Harper has made 87 plate appearances this season and is slashing .347/437/.547 with a .200 ISO while creating runs 67% better than average. Castellanos started the season very hot and has cooled somewhat in May, but his numbers are still strong and he has had a long successful track record on the right side of the plate. Castellanos has an 8.88 in our home run model tonight, he has hit five this season and has created runs 16% better than average. JT Realmuto is another premium catcher option, he costs $4,800/$2,900, he has three home runs and seven stolen bases, and is a strong option when rostering stacks of Phillies. Realmuto is a viable one-off catcher as well, given his ability to provide correlated scoring and individual upside. Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, and Edmundo Sosa are a solid bottom third that has power and a bit of speed, Marsh is 30% above average for run creation so far this season, while the other two slip below the water line but have provided counting stats for MLB DFS value.
Veteran Taijuan Walker is an average or below-average pitcher on most nights, with infrequent rises to a higher ceiling. The righty looks very much like a target for the Braves hitting on this slate, a notion supported by Atlanta’s healthy 5.55-run implied team total in the matchup against the Phillies. That total sits a quarter-run higher than any other non-Coors game on the slate, and is in fact significantly higher than the 4.83 that the Rockies are pulling in at Coors against an elite pitcher. Walker has a 21% strikeout rate with an ugly 11% walk rate for the season, with a 5.79 ERA and 4.37 xFIP in 10 starts and 46.2 innings. The righty has allowed a four percent home run rate with an 8.1% barrel rate and 41.2% hard hits. Atlanta’s excellent lineup is loaded with power from top to bottom, starting with the elite duo of Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson who cost $6,400/$4,700 and $5,300/$4,100. Acuna has 11 home runs and 22 stolen bases and has created runs 66% better than average, Olson has 14 home runs and a .289 ISO and has created runs 37% better than average, they are one of the top pairings on tonight’s slate. Austin Riley has come to life over the last week after enduring an extended slump, he has nine home runs and a .192 ISO with a 113 WRC+ in 219 plate appearances this year and is a major source of power in this lineup who remains at a cheap price on both sites. Sean Murphy is an elite backstop, he has an 18.7% barrel rate and 46.7% hard-hit rate over 175 plate appearances this season, turning the premium contact into 10 home runs and a .267 ISO while creating runs 53% better than average. Eddie Rosario, Ozzie Albies, and Marcell Ozuna provide even more power from late in the lineup. Rosario is cheap in the outfield, he has five home runs but just a 74 WRC+ over 153 plate appearances but should be in the lineup as a left-handed bat against Walker. Albies and Ozuna both have 10 home runs on the season, Ozuna has been crushing most pitches he connects with, to the tune of a 15.2% barrel rate and 46.7% hard hits and a .270 ISO. Orlando Arcia has a 48.7% hard-hit rate and four home runs over 109 plate appearances as an undervalued option in the middle infield at a cheap price when stacking Braves. Michael Harris II has been lousy in his 101 plate appearances, he suffered an injury and missed time but the near-total lack of production over a growing sample has been a bit concerning for last year’s NL Rookie of the Year. Harris should hit for power and run again as the season goes on, but it would not be stunning to see Sam Hilliard get a bit more time as Harris figures things out.
Play: Braves bats/stacks, Phillies bats/stacks
Update Notes: the Phillies lineup runs as anticipated with the exception of Josh Harrison stepping in to hit ninth instead of Sosa. The Braves lineup has Ozuna hitting fifth between catcher Travis d’Arnaud and Rosario, with Murphy getting a night off.
San Francisco Giants (+117/3.83) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-127/4.26)
The Giants’ hard-hitting lineup will face Freddy Peralta tonight in Milwaukee. Peralta is a different play from site to site, he is a nice value piece with a significant ceiling for $8,800 on DraftKings while he is a more expensive, but still worthwhile option at $10,000 on the FanDuel slate. Peralta is typically very good at checking opposing power, though he allowed home runs in each of his last two starts and had a six-run clunker against the Cardinals after we praised his talents in his last main slate feature. Overall, the righty is a good option on this slate, he projects in the top quarter of the pitching board with comparable numbers to everyone in his price tier and he has a good matchup for strikeouts. The projected Giants lineup has a current-year strikeout rate of 24.6% with just a 7.8% walk rate, but they do have power to capitalize if the pitcher makes a mistake or two. LaMonte Wade Jr. is consistently one of the better bargains in MLB DFS, he is slashing .277/.430/.468 with a 154 WRC+ and seven home runs in 181 plate appearances but costs just $3,200/$2,900 at first base atop this lineup. Thairo Estrada has been expensive through most of the year, he remains the highest-priced player on the cheap Giants roster tonight at $5,100/$3,700 which is a bit lower than his salary has been in recent weeks. Estrada has six home runs and 13 stolen bases with a 123 WRC+ this season. Michael Conforto has been hitting for power, he has 11 home runs with a .232 ISO and is up to .239/.339/471 with a 123 WRC+ in 180 opportunities this season. Conforto is a cheap left-handed power bat at $3,400/$3,200. JD Davis and Mike Yastrzemski both have power upside in the heart of the lineup from either side of the plate. Davis has eight home runs this season, and Yastrzemski has five, they both cost $3,800 on DraftKings and land at $2,900 and $3,000 on FanDuel. Peralta’s presence on the mound does have their marks in our home run model suppressed to just 4.70 and 4.61 however. That is also true of Mitch Haniger, who sees his home run mark squished to just 4.73 by Peralta’s track record. Haniger has two home runs in 93 opportunities since returning to the lineup but has not really caught the wave yet this season. Patrick Bailey, Casey Schmitt, and Brandon Crawford round out the projected Giants lineup.
The Brewers will be facing lefty Alex Wood, which has names like Darin Ruf and Mike Brosseau in the mix once again in their platoon-focused roles. Wood has made five starts and thrown just 20 innings this season, pitching to a 22.8% strikeout rate with a 4.05 ERA and 4.68 xFIP. The southpaw is cheap at $6,300/$6,500 but he does not project as a good option on this slate and is pushing power toward the Brewers. Wood has given up a 9.8% barrel rate and 91.6 mph of average exit velocity so far this season, amounting to a 3.26% home run rate, and the veteran lefty is yet to complete five innings this season, though he did pitch into the fifth in his last two starts. Wood has very little upside in limited form, the Brewers bats are the better side of the matchup as a mid-level stack tonight. Owen Miller leads off against lefties, he has four home runs and five stolen bases with a 137 WRC+ in 113 plate appearances this season while slashing .333/.354/.528 but he hit just six home runs in 472 opportunities last year and has not made premium contact with regularity. William Contreras is cheap as a catcher with a decent bat, he has four home runs and has created runs four percent better than average and gains positional value for hitting so high in the lineup. Willy Adames has nine home runs but he is slashing just .205/.289/.384 with a .178 ISO. Christian Yelich has seven home runs and a .158 ISO with a 9.1% barrel rate and 54.5% hard-hit rate. At only $4,700, Yelich is both the most expensive Brewers hitter and a major discount on the DraftKings slate. He costs $3,300 on FanDuel with the same descriptions. Darin Ruf checks in at $2,200/$2,000, the right-handed platoon specialist has zero home runs and just a .081 ISO with a 101 WRC+ in 42 plate appearances this year, he hit 11 home runs in 388 opportunities last year and is pulling in just a 3.31 in our home run model tonight. Ruf is a low-end option, as are Brian Anderson and Mike Brosseau, but any or all of the three may get involved tonight on the positive side of their splits. Anderson has eight total home runs and a 106 WRC+ for the season, Brosseau has been seven percent below average for run creation in his 66 plate appearances but he has managed a .226 ISO and four home runs. Tyrone Taylor and Joey Wiemer close out the lineup, Taylor has one home run and Wiemer has five but neither has been good this season.
Play: Freddy Peralta, Brewers bats/stacks as a mid-range option
Update Notes: the Giants lineup runs Wade-Blake Sabol-Davis-Conforto-Haniger-Yastrzemski-Schmitt-Bailey-Wisely. Sabol adds an interesting left-handed power bat with catcher and outfield eligibility to the second spot in the Giants lineup, he has five home runs and a .190 ISO with a 121 WRC+ typically from later in the lineup in 117 plate appearances this season on an 11.1% barrel rate and 44.4% hard-hit rate. The Brewers will have Ruf leading off followed by Contreras-Adames-Yelich-Miller-Anderson-Brosseau-Taylor-Wiemer, bump to Ruf for the potential additional plate appearance
Washington Nationals (-101/4.76) @ Kansas City Royals (-107/4.84)
A low-end matchup between the Nationals and Royals has both teams carrying effective run totals in a matchup of lousy starting pitchers. The Nationals will be facing Jordan Lyles, who has a 7.15 ERA and 5.61 xFIP with a 1.34 WHIP this season. Lyles is a veteran righty who has been below league average through most of his career. Lyles has a 17.3% strikeout rate in 56.2 innings and 10 starts this season and he has been allowing a significant amount of power with a 12% barrel rate and 5.65% home run rate. This has even the low-end Nationals lineup looking playable at a 4.59-run implied total. Lyles is not a good option even against a terrible opponent that has him projected at the top of the slate’s list of bad options. Nationals hitters are never a fun option to roster, but at least they are cheap. Lane Thomas has seven home runs and a .165 ISO with a 118 WRC+ while carrying a 9.19 in our home run model tonight. That mark leads the Nationals’ projected lineup for power potential, Thomas belongs in most stacks of Nationals tonight. Luis Garcia has three home runs and three steals while creating runs 19% worse than average for the season, Jeimer Candelario has been four percent better than average and hits righties better than lefties, he is an option at just $3,400/$2,800 at third base, and Joey Meneses slots in as a viable bat across the diamond. Meneses has gotten his act together over the past few weeks, he is now slashing .298/329/.389 with two home runs and a 95 WRC+ after a bad start. His power has still not arrived, which is a letdown for a hitter who blasted 13 home runs in just 240 plate appearances last year, but at least he is hitting. Corey Dickerson is a veteran on the left side of the plate at a cheap price, Keibert Ruiz is an inexpensive catcher, and Dominic Smith slots in at a fair price at first base but has not done much at the plate. Ruiz has a 79 WRC+ and four home runs in 174 plate appearances, Smith has one homer and a .040 ISO with a 95 WRC+ in 198. Alex Call and CJ Abrams round things out, Call has a 76 WRC+ and Abrams is sitting at 83 in 194 and 171 plate appearances respectively. This is a bad team going up against a bad pitcher, which should favor the low-end bats.
The other side of this one has a few better hitters taking on a pitcher who has been equally lousy over the past few seasons. Patrick Corbin has strung together OK starts in terms of allowing runs in a few outings this season, but he has just a 13.8% strikeout rate with a 46.5% hard-hit rate and 91.1 mph of average exit velocity allowed while pitching to a 4.47 ERA and 4.22 xFIP in 56.1 innings and 10 starts. The lefty has been targetable for power for the past few seasons, this year has not been much different, Corbin has allowed a 3.25% home run rate on the premium contact, Royals bats are in play against him tonight, but at $5,900 on the DraftKings slate, Corbin demands at least a bit of SP2 attention as well. The path to success is thin, but there is no lower-priced pitcher pulling in a better projection on this slate. For the Royals, the projected lineup opens with Nick Pratto, who we have been keeping an eye on in this space. Pratto has hit two home runs with a 130 WRC+ in his 103 plate appearances so far with a 43.6% hard-hit rate from the left side. He may slide down the lineup against a same-handed pitcher, but the Royals had him in this spot against a lefty earlier in the week. Sal Perez has 11 home runs and a .251 ISO with an elite 12.2% barrel rate and 49.6% hard-hit rate but he costs just $4,900 where catchers are mandatory. At $3,200 on the blue site, Perez is in play as if he were a premium first baseman. Vinnie Pasquantino is slashing .262/.347.481 with a .219 ISO while creating runs 25% better than average, he has nine home runs and has been very difficult to strike out this season. The combination of a 12.6% strikeout rate and 44.4% hard hits makes Pasquantino a nice value at his price and typical popularity. Bobby Witt Jr. has been hitting cleanup in an effort to get his season in gear, he has seven home runs and 14 stolen bases with a 77 WRC+ over 219 plate appearances. MJ Melendez has a 56% hard-hit rate but just four home runs and a .207/.284/.349 triple-slash. Melendez still has catcher eligibility on FanDuel but he is exclusively an outfielder on DraftKings, he has power upside at his cheap price on both sites. Edward Olivares offers mid-range power and a bit of speed, Matt Duffy has a good hit tool and moderate power, he is slashing .308/.343/.400 with a 104 WRC+ in 70 plate appearances, and Maikel Garcia has a 98 WRC+ in 78 plate appearances. Jackie Bradley Jr. is a low-end outfielder at the plate.
Play: Royals bats/stacks, Nationals bats/stacks, SP2 value shares of Corbin are not out of line
Update Notes: The confirmed Royals lineup has Matt Duffy in the leadoff role, the righty is an interesting option in that spot, he has a decent hit tool and moderate power. Freddy Fermin steps in and hits seventh with Drew Waters hitting ninth instead of Pratto and Jackie Bradley Jr. The Nationals lineup is as expected.
Toronto Blue Jays (-147/4.15) @ Minnesota Twins (+136/3.43)
An interesting pitching matchup in Minnesota has the totals down for both teams, but the visiting Blue Jays are strong favorites at 4.42 implied runs against right-handed rookie hurler Louie Varland. Over 28 innings and five starts, Varland has a very good 26.3% strikeout rate with a 5.9% walk rate while inducing an excellent 13.4% swinging-strike rate for the year. Varland has allowed power while pitching to a 4.18 ERA and 3.63 xFIP, opposing hitters have managed a 5.93% home run rate with 90.5 mph of average exit velocity, a 12.7% barrel rate, and 44.3% hard hits. The righty costs $8,500/$8,900, against lesser competition he would be a very intriguing option at those prices, but the Blue Jays’ excellent top-to-bottom lineup is a cause for concern with this starter on such a deep slate. Varland is not off the board, but he is a lesser option among the talented pitchers available tonight. The Blue Jays, by the same token, are easily playable as they are on most nights, but they suffer somewhat compared to their upside in lesser matchups. George Springer has seven home runs and eight stolen bases and is now slashing .250/.321/.380 with a WRC+ mark just two points below average. Bo Bichette has nine home runs but only two stolen bases this year, he hit 24 and stole 13 last season after going 29/25 the year before. Bichette has been excellent overall, slashing .326/.366/.500 with a 142 WRC+ this season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a superstar at first base for $5,400/$3,800, he has eight home runs and a 138 WRC+ but has slipped to just a .181 ISO despite 14% barrels and 56.7% hard-hits. Brandon Belt hits from the left side and provides a cheaper lower-owned alternative at first base. Belt has two home runs and a .143 ISO while creating runs 23% better than average in his 131 plate appearances this season. The lefty slugger is very inexpensive for a hitter who had 29 home runs in 381 plate appearances in 2021. Matt Chapman is priced down compared to the heights to which he ascended early this season. He still has a 22.8 barrel rate and 60.3% hard-hit mark for the season, with seven home runs and a .211 ISO over 215 opportunities. Whit Merrifield is a good hit tool and speed option for correlated scoring, he has 14 stolen bases and a 102 WRC+ in 176 plate appearances this season and slots in at second base or in the outfield on both sites. Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, and Kevin Kiermaier round out the lineup. Kiermaier has been hitting unexpectedly well this season with three home runs and a quality triple slash while creating runs 32% better than average and playing outstanding defense. Varsho has been a letdown for Toronto, he has seven home runs but just an 81 WRC+ while Kirk has been at league average and has two home runs as a cheap catcher.
The Twins are facing righty Kevin Gausman who has been one of the league’s best pitchers this season and who lands second on our pitching board today. Gausman has a dynamite 31.9% strikeout rate with a 3.14 ERA and 2.70 xFIP in his 10 starts and 63 innings. The righty pitches deep into almost every start and is always in play for both a win and quality start bonus. Gausman is facing a Twins lineup that has a ridiculous 27.9% current-year strikeout rate in its projected form, he has a very high ceiling for MLB DFS scoring on this slate. At $10,300/$11,100 Gausman is our top pitching option when accounting for salary, popularity, and other such factors. While Hunter Brown projects higher at a lower price, he is likely to be far more popular for the better matchup against Oakland. Gausman is a very interesting tournament play against this Twins team. Edouard Julien is slated to lead off for Minnesota, he has three home runs from earlier this season and has made just 45 plate appearances overall but he is a prized prospect in the Twins’ system and is expected to hit in the long term. Byron Buxton is a star against anyone in baseball, he has an 8.04 in our home run model to easily outpace the rest of his teammates tonight. The outfielder has 10 homers and a .250 ISO with a 131 WRC+ in his 192 plate appearances this season, after Buxton the second-highest total for home runs in the projected Twins lineup, in the absence of Joey Gallo, is Michael A. Taylor who hits ninth and has six in his ledger for the season. Taylor is a very different option than Buxton at the plate. The rest of the team has not hit for very much power at all this season. Donovan Solano has zero home runs in 122 plate appearances and has created runs exactly at league average. Alex Kirilloff has lefty power and has hit three home runs in 61 plate appearances while creating runs 50% better than average in the tiny sample, he needs to keep hitting to stick at this level this time. Kyle Farmer, Willie Castro, Matt Wallner, Christian Vazquez, and Taylor are all relatively low-end to mid-range options who can be utilized as mix-and-match piece in stacks, but this is not a good spot to get carried away with Twins shares.
Play: Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays bats/stacks, Louie Varland only in small doses
Update Notes: the run total in Vegas is down a half-run to 7.5 since this morning. The Twins lineup gets Carlos Correa back in a big bump in quality. Solano leads off followed by Correa-Buxton-Kirilloff-Farmer-Julien-Kyle Garlick-Vazquez-Taylor. The Blue Jays lineup runs in the projected order.
New York Mets (-204/6.87) @ Colorado Rockies (+185/4.78)
The Mets are blowing the doors off the slate with a 6.81-run implied team total against Connor Seabold, who is not in play for MLB DFS purposes. Seabold has allowed a 4.03% home run rate on 89.7 mph of average exit velocity and a 39.4% hard-hit rate while pitching to a 5.97 ERA and 5.29 xFIP and striking out just 16.8%. New York will be explosively popular with this matchup and run total at Coors Field tonight, the talented lineup has a significant ceiling for run scoring tonight, they are showing power and run creation upside and they come at fairly affordable prices on both sites. Brandon Nimmo has a 48.1% hard-hit rate with four home runs and he gets on base at a .373 clip while creating runs 28% better than average, he is a top leadoff hitter who is cheap in this ballpark at $4,900/$3,500. Francisco Lindor costs $5,300/$3,900 and should be more expensive on both sites. Lindor has not been great this season, he has a 99 WRC+ with seven home runs and four stolen bases but stars should cost more than this at Coors Field. Jeff McNeil puts the ball in play frequently, when it falls in he looks like a great player, when he struggles for BABIP he does not. So far this season, McNeil has a 114 WRC+ with two home runs while slashing .291/.370/.368. Pete Alonso has hit 19 home runs and has a .319 ISO for the season, he carries a slate-leading 23.00 in our home run model tonight and looks like a great bet for some form of MLB DFS point scoring. Brett Baty has hit four home runs with a .154 ISO and 101 WRC+ over his first 117 plate appearances, he has a 51.9% hard-hit rate and 10.1% barrel rate and he is a premium prospect but costs just $3,400/$3,100 at Coors Field. Starling Marte has not been good this season, nor has Mark Canha, Daniel Vogelbach has been a bit better than those two teammates with a 108 WRC+ in 121 plate appearances, but rookie catcher Francisco Alvarez has been the best of the bunch at the bottom of the lineup. Alvarez has six home runs and a .250 ISO and is looking like the star who he was expected to eventually turn into. The surprise is how early Alvarez has arrived, he was promoted ahead of schedule due to injuries but has clearly seized the job in Queens. The rookie backstop is worth a look, particularly if he is less popular than some other options behind the plate on DraftKings, though that seems unlikely in a Coors game. Marte, Vogelbach, and Canha, or whatever else lands in this lineup, will all be playable as well, this is an excellent opportunity but one that will have the attention of the entire field.
The Rockies are also playing in Coors Field but they are not carrying a Coors-like total at just 4.83. The reason for this, of course, is Max Scherzer on the mound for the Mets. The right-handed veteran has not been quite himself this year, which puts him on a long list of veteran pitchers, but he has plenty of upside and the ability to completely shut down a lousy lineup like this one. Scherzer has a 22.6% strikeout rate with a 4.01 ERA and 5.06 xFIP in seven starts and 33.2 innings. His 12.5% swinging-strike rate and 26.6% CSW% are both dips from the 14.8% and 30.8% he posted last season which has him priced at just $9,200/$9,100 tonight. The matchup is a great one but Scherzer has not been completely on form and the ballpark is the worst pitching environment in baseball, that combination of factors may render Scherzer lower-owned than he should be against this team at these prices, there is a path to success with the pitcher if he finds his form and gets past the ballpark factors. The Rockies lineup is in play just on virtue of the ballpark, but they are still a low-end option. Charlie Blackmon and Jurickson Profar are in the top two spots, neither has hit the ball with authority this year, Blackmon has three home runs and a 30.7% hard-hit rate, Profar has five homers and a 33.8% hard-hit rate. Kris Bryant has also been disappointing for premium contact, he is sitting at just a 32.2% hard-hit rate with five home runs and a .120 ISO and has slipped to a 94 WRC+ over 196 plate appearances. The power outage for the star has been ongoing, he has not seen the expected uptick from regular opportunities at Coors Field but he is cheap at $5,000/$3,200. Elias Diaz is an affordable catcher with a decent bat, Mike Moustakas has two home runs and a 74 WRC+ in his 88 plate appearances, and Randal Grichuk is cheap for a veteran with a good bat. Grichuk is slashing .342/.402/.466 with a 122 WRC+ in 82 plate appearances but he has hit just one home run so far this year. Ryan McMahon hits the ball hard from the left side, he has a 12.6% barrel rate and 48.6% hard-hit rate this year but just four home runs and a .162 ISO. Harold Castro and Ezequiel Tovar round out the low-end lineup.
Play: Mets and Max
Update Notes: the confirmed Rockies lineup runs Blackmon-Profar-Bryant-Diaz-McMahon-Castro-Nolan Jones–Alan Trejo-Tovar. Jones is an interesting young hitter with power upside making his season debut at $3,300/$2,500. The Mets lineup looks as projected with the exception of Tommy Pham stepping in and hitting eighth in place of Canha.
Miami Marlins (+133/3.92) @ Los Angeles Angels (-144/4.68)
Lefty Reid Detmers is in a good spot in a home start against the middling Miami Marlins. Detmers has a 4.87 ERA and 3.80 xFIP this season but he has pushed his strikeouts way up to 29.8% after sitting at 22.6% over 129 innings and 25 starts last year. Detmers has an excellent 14.4% swinging-strike rate this year with a 29.5% CSW%. He has allowed a bit of premium contact and power but it has not cost him on the home run side, and his 9.6% walk rate has not been as bad as it could have been, given the starter’s acumen for punching holes in a rally. Detmers costs just $7,700/$8,300, he looks like a very strong buy in this matchup, though it is noteworthy that the Marlins have been good against lefties so far this season. The team ranks fourth with a 131 WRC+ and 11th with a .180 ISO against southpaws collectively this season. Much of that upside is carried by masher Jorge Soler, who has a 300 WRC+ and .650 ISO in his 47 plate appearances against lefties this season, with eight of his 15 home runs coming in the split. Soler has monster power and could easily connect in this matchup, he hits second behind Jon Berti, who stole 41 bases in just 404 plate appearances last season. Berti has seven stolen bases in 164 plate appearances this year, the production has not been the same and he has been 16% below the average for run creation, but he comes cheap with multi-position eligibility on both sites. Luis Arraez has a 143 WRC+ along with the league’s best hit tool in the third spot in the lineup. Garrett Cooper has moderate power and has been lousy at 14% below the average for run creation overall this year but has been very good in a tiny sample against lefties with a 184 WRC+ and a .167 ISO in 33 plate appearances. Bryan De La Cruz costs $3,700/$2,800, he has five home runs and a 114 WRC+ overall, and a 124 WRC+ in 39 plate appearances against lefties. Yuli Gurriel, Jean Segura, Nick Fortes, and Jonathan Davis round out the projected lineup as mix-and-match options. The Marlins’ small-sample numbers in the split against lefties are good, they could get to Detmers tonight, but taking the upside for strikeouts with the pitcher and riding out the fact that this remains a bad team in a bad spot is probably the stronger angle.
The Marlins will have a lefty of their own on the hill, with Jesus Luzardo taking the hill. Luzardo has a 26.3% strikeout rate and 3.83 ERA with a 4.13 xFIP this season while inducing a 13.2% swinging strike rate with a 29.2% CSW%. The former top prospect has been good overall but he is something of a target for power, having allowed a 12% barrel rate and 3.33% home run rate so far this year. Luzardo has the talent to get through this tough Angels lineup, but they have not been easy to strike out overall this season and there are several major sources of right-handed power, as well as two of the game’s best overall hitters, in the lineup for Los Angeles. Luzardo is playable at his $9,500/$9,600 price tag, he projects in the middle of the deep pitching slate and has the talent to post a ceiling score, but the Angels are pulling in power projections that have us looking more in their direction, which is somewhat supported by an OK 4.40-run implied team total in Vegas. The projected lineup opens with Taylor Ward, who should see the start with a lefty on the mound, despite his struggles. Ward has hit just four home runs with one stolen base and a .096 ISO while creating runs 26% worse than average so far this season in a big step back after a productive 2022. Ward needs to get in gear, he is cheap but he is also in danger of losing his job and there is a version of this lineup that would leave him out entirely. Mike Trout is in no such danger, our overall home run pick for the day comes in at a 16.35 in our home run model, he has 12 this season to tie with fellow superstar Shohei Ohtani for the team-lead, and his .253 ISO and 144 WRC+ are both outstanding. Trout has a 17.6% barrel rate and 49.6% hard-hit rate this season, he is easily worth the $5,800/$3,700, as is his counterpart. Ohtani costs $6,200/$3,700, he has a .254 ISO and 140 WRC+ in his 217 plate appearances and he has been every bit as good as Trout this season. Hunter Renfroe has been springing alongside the Trout-Ohtani express trying to keep pace all season, he has 10 home runs with a .209 ISO in 209 plate appearances while creating runs 11% better than average and checks in at a big discount compared to the team’s other outfield options. Infielder Brandon Drury is one of three hitters in the bottom half of the lineup with multi-position eligibility. Drury has hit for power again so far this season, he has seven home runs and a .217 ISO in 179 plate appearances. Gio Urshela is cheap but is a lower-end bat than Luis Rengifo who costs the same and has similar multi-position eligibility, both players fit three different positions on the FanDuel slate and two on DraftKings. Chad Wallach has three home runs and a .204 ISO in his 51 plate appearances this season and Zach Neto is slashing .266/.333/.411 with a 107 WRC+ as a correlated scoring play to wraparound to the top of the lineup.
Play: Angels bats/stacks, Reid Detmers, Marlins and Jesus Luzardo in smaller doses
Update Notes: the total is up a half-run to 8.5 since this morning. The Marlins lineup is confirmed as expected. The Angels confirmed their lineup in the projected form.
Houston Astros (-260/5.35) @ Oakland Athletics (+233/3.28)
The Astros’ 5.35-run implied team total is the second-highest non-Coors total on the board but it feels like it should be higher against lousy righty James Kaprielian, who comes in with an 8.68 ERA and 6.83 xFIP. The righty has struck out 22.1% but has a 14% walk rate and has allowed significant premium contact and power with a 9.6% barrel rate and 39.8% hard-hit rate this year. He has allowed a 4.41% home run rate on 91.1 mph of average exit velocity, all of which add up to significant projections for the Houston lineup tonight and a recommendation to leave this starter where you found him. Jose Altuve has a 9.12 in our home run model, the second baseman is yet to hit one in 16 plate appearances since his return, he hit 28 in 604 chances last year, the power is coming. Altuve is cheap at $5,200/$3,200, the FanDuel price is notably low in this matchup at a short position. Alex Bregman has six home runs but is slashing .219/.326/.358 and creating runs six percent below average for the season in a bad start to the year. Yordan Alvarez is one of the top hitters in the game, he has 12 home runs with a 19% barrel rate and 54.3% hard-hit rate for the season while creating runs a massive 75% better than average. With the rest of this team underperforming it is safe to say that they would be lost without Alvarez this year, the outfielder costs $6,000/$4,500 but he is easy to afford with the discount on all of his teammates. Kyle Tucker has hit seven home runs and stolen seven bases with a .172 ISO and 122 WRC+ so far this season, he is a toolsy star who is a bit inexpensive during a mini-slump. Jose Abreu is in a major slump, he has shown no power and not much upside for anything since landing in Houston this offseason, he has zero home runs with a .038 ISO and 52 WRC+. Jeremy Pena is inexpensive at shortstop but he sits 10% below average for run creation this year, Chas McCormick has not made his typically good contact and sits 10% below average for runs in 82 plate appearances, and Jake Meyers is a low-end outfielder from late in the lineup despite his 112 WRC+ in 137 plate appearances this year. Martin Maldonado is capable of hitting a cheap catcher home run from time to time from the last spot in the Astros lineup.
The Athletics are a pushover of a lineup that has afforded big scores to pitcher after pitcher this season. While there are no locks, as we saw just last night, attacking this team on a daily basis is bound to be a good play over time. Righty Hunter Brown is on the mound for Houston tonight at $9,900/$10,300, which is a bit of a bargain given the rookie’s talent level. Brown has a 26.8% strikeout rate and 3.20 ERA with a 3.26 xFIP over his first nine starts and 50.2 innings in 2023. The rookie had a brief cup of coffee in the Show last season, pitching 20.1 innings of effective ball to add to his totals, he has all indications of posting a very strong MLB DFS score in this matchup with a slate-leading projection. Brown is our top option on the sheer expectation of fantasy points, but he is very likely to be the slate’s highest-owned player overall, which pushes him behind Gausman for large tournaments in our estimation. Brown will be facing a very weak lineup that opens with speed demon Esteury Ruiz who has stolen 26 bases this year. Ruiz will be running if he gets on base, which he has done at a .336 clip this season, but he is mostly a correlated scoring and hit-tool/speed option. Ryan Noda has a decent home run upside tonight at 8.32 in our model, he has four home runs on the season and a .192 ISO. Brent Rooker has 11 home runs and is slashing .200/.292/.329 with a .129 ISO and 81 WRC+ in May. Seth Brown has hit a pair of home runs in 44 plate appearances but has missed most of the season, he had 25 with 11 stolen bases last year. Brown is cheap at $3,100/$2,500 and makes an interesting play when rostering stacks of Athletics bats. Shea Langeliers and JJ Bleday are similarly compelling options when one is looking at this team already, Langeliers has sneaky power at catcher, he has hit seven home runs this year, Bleday is cheap with left-handed pop, he has an 8.82 in our home run model. Jace Peterson, Nick Allen, and Tony Kemp round out the projected lineup in low-end style.
Play: Hunter Brown, Astros bats/stacks
Update Notes: the Oakland lineup runs Ruiz-Noda-Rooker-Brown-Carlos Perez–Ramon Laureano–Aledmys Diaz-Peterson-Allen. Jeremy Pena and Chas McCormick are out for the Astros, Mauricio Dubon steps in to hit second with Bregman sliding to cleanup and Corey Julks hits seventh after Abreu.
Boston Red Sox (-135/4.87) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+124/4.23)
The Red Sox draw rookie righty Brandon Pfaadt who comes in at a discount once again tonight. Pfaadt costs just $5,400/$6,000 in his fifth start of the season. The righty is a highly regarded prospect who has had a rocky first few outings, he carries a 7.65 ERA and 5.88 xFIP with a 15.9% strikeout rate into this matchup. Pfaadt has allowed a lot of premium contact at 15.2% barrels and a 50% hard-hit rate with a 7.95% home run rate and he has also walked too many at 9.1% with a lack of strikeout stuff. We gave it a whirl with this pitcher on a shorter slate and cheap price in his last outing and fell well short of the mark, in a worse matchup on a large slate, there does not seem to be much of a reason to get to many shares of Pfaadt. A few value darts are fine if one believes in the starter, hates the Red Sox, or feels particularly masochistic about lineup constructions, but the play is not great. Red Sox hitters of note include the usual configuration with Alex Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida leading the way ahead of veteran Justin Turner in the top third. Verdugo is a great leadoff hitter, he has created runs 22% better than average and gets involved regularly with a good hit tool and moderate power for just $5,100/$3,400. Yoshida has six home runs and a 133 WRC+, he was cool to start the season, heated up, then came back to Earth again somewhat, but there is clearly major talent in play with the outfielder and he checks in at 11.18 in our home run model tonight. Turner hits from the right side, he has five home runs and a 111 WRC+ on the season and makes for an affordable reliable correlated scoring play. Rafael Devers is the team’s star at third base, he costs a fair $5,800/$3,600 and has 13 home runs with a .264 ISO in the books already in 2023. Devers has made 207 plate appearances and has created runs nine percent better than average while posting a 13.8% barrel rate and 52% hard hits, he is an elite option at his position who can be used in stacks or as a one-off. Jarren Duran has been very good through the first part of his season, veteran Enrique Hernandez has not. Duran has a 125 WRC+ in 133 plate appearances, Hernandez is at 74 in 178 opportunities. The pair hits ahead of rookie Triston Casas who has tremendous power but an inability to wield it regularly, he has six home runs but just a .173 ISO and 84 WRC+ while slashing .181/.312/.354 in 154 chances. Emmanuel Valdez and Reese McGuire round out the projected lineup.
Stop us if you’ve heard this one today, Chris Sale is a veteran starter who has not been entirely pitching to form so far this season. Sale has had an up-and-down season in the perception of MLB DFS gamers, he has found his upside with strong strikeout performances but has also run into power several times. Most of the struggles came in Sale’s first few outings of the year, he has been mostly good in the month of May. The lefty has not allowed more than three earned runs in his last four starts and he has had three straight good games for strikeouts. Overall, Sale has a 29% strikeout rate in 50.1 innings and nine starts. The veteran has pitched to a 5.01 ERA but his 3.50 xFIP is 1.5 runs better and shows what is probably his true quality on the mound in his current form. Sale has induced a 12.9% swinging-strike rate with a 29.7% CSW%, which puts him almost exactly on form from where he was in nine starts in 2021. The lefty does not have much of a sample to work with in recent seasons, but when he is healthy he retains ace-caliber upside with a significant ceiling for MLB DFS scoring. Sale is one of our top-ranked pitchers on tonight’s slate but the Diamondbacks have a 119 WRC+ against left-handed pitching that warrants some attention this evening. Ketel Marte slots in at $5,000/$3,000 he has six home runs and four steals this season with a 116 WRC+. Emmanuel Rivera is inexpensive in the second slot in the lineup, he has a 119 WRC+ in 65 plate appearances as a cheap third baseman. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is slated to hit third, he has eight home runs while slashing .317/.372/.557 with a .240 ISO and creating runs 49% better than average in what has been a very good first quarter of the season. Gurriel is still very cheap for that level of production, costing just $4,400/$3,400 on tonight’s slate ahead of masher Christian Walker. The first baseman has hit 11 home runs and has a .243 ISO over 198 plate appearances while creating runs 12% better than average. The right-handed Walker is also cheap at $4,600/$3,500 in the matchup. Corbin Carroll hits from the left side and could be in a tough spot against Sale, but he has seven home runs and 14 stolen bases so far this season with a 140 WRC+ while striking out just 20.2% of the time and walking at an 11.7% clip. Evan Longoria slots in as a veteran right-handed bat who acts mostly as a platoon specialist at this point. He has made 93 plate appearances and has six home runs with a .256 ISO on a 12.5% barrel rate and 57.1% hard hits. Longoria costs $3,400/$2,700, he is a cheap option with sneaky potential in this matchup. Gabriel Moreno and Nick Ahmed are affordable bats late in the lineup, Moreno has been a cheap capable catcher so far this season, and Ahmed is not much of an option for DFS scoring. Jake McCarthy is also expected back in the lineup after being recalled to the team. McCarthy was a major letdown early in the season, slashing .143/.229/.238 with two stolen bases and one home run in 70 plate appearances, he has very good power and speed potential and should do more for MLB DFS gamers over time. At $3,000/$2,400, McCarthy should not be skipped in stacks of Diamondbacks, assuming he plays.
Play: Chris Sale, Red Sox bats/stacks, some Diamondbacks bats in smaller shares
Update Notes: the run total is up a half-run to 9.0 since this morning. Boston is giving Rafael Devers the day off in a major downgrade to their lineup. Jarren Duran is also out of the Red Sox lineup in a further downgrade. Raimel Tapia is in the leadoff spot, putting an interesting moderate power and speed bat atop the Red Sox lineup but nothing makes up for the absence of the star third baseman. Verdugo-Turner-Yoshida-Refsnyder-Casas-Hernandez-Valdez-Connor Wong follow. Wong is a better bat at catcher, he is up to five home runs and a .221 ISO in 113 opportunities.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+137/3.20) @ Seattle Mariners (-149/3.88)
The main slate closes out with a fun pitching matchup in Seattle’s pitcher-friendly ballpark with George Kirby as a strong favorite against the Pirates’ low-end lineup. Kirby has struck out a limited 20.4% of opposing hitters this season, down from 24.5% last year, but his microscopic walk rate and excellent ability to limit power have been assets over his first nine starts and he has pitched to a sparkling 2.62 ERA so far in 2023. Kirby has a 2.2% walk rate with a 1.01 WHIP and he has kept barrels to just 4.0% with 87.6 mph of average exit velocity and a 1.30% home run rate early in the season. The righty may not be racking up the strikeouts, but he is reliable for depth and should have a great chance to chase clean innings, a win, and a quality start for MLB DFS gamers at just $9,300/$10,600. The DraftKings price is excellent Kirby should be very popular at that cost, he makes a great buy on both sites tonight against a lineup that ranks 20th with a collective 96 WRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. The Pirates do not look like a great option, the team has only limited power potential, with a few home run hitters like Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen, and Jack Suwinski drawing the eye at fair prices, but Kirby is difficult to connect against for power and he does not get himself into trouble or allow big rallies with frequency. McCutchen has seven home runs and a .179 ISO for the season, Reynolds has six and a .199, and Suwinski has seven with a .219 and a 113 WRC+. The trio are the top bats for the Pirates and they are projected to hit 1-3 in the lineup, which would make for a playable stack on its own for those determined to use this team. Carlos Santana has just a 4.5% barrel rate and 33.6% hard-hit rate with two home runs and a 92 WRC+ with a .120 ISO, it may be time to send him to a nice farm upstate to run and play with the other old dogs. Ke’Bryan Hayes has a 47.4% hard-hit rate that is totally outside of everything else he does at the plate, the third baseman is slashing .232/.289/.348 with a .116 ISO and 73 WRC+ but strikes out just 14.2% of the time, between the hard hits and the amount of contact there should just be a better hitter in here, everyone reading this needs to will this into reality if rostering Hayes tonight. Tucupita Marcano has two home runs and a 108 WRC+ in 86 plate appearances, Josh Palacios has not done much at the MLB level, and Ji-Hwan Bae and Austin Hedges are everyday mix-and-match pieces for Pittsburgh.
The Mariners will be facing soaring Mitch Keller, who has a 30.7% strikeout rate and 0.97 WHIP with a 2.44 ERA and 2.99 xFIP over 10 starts and 62.2 innings of the kind of pitching we always knew he had in him. Keller has been very good this season, he has allowed just a 1.99% home run rate and 28.7% hard hits with a 30.1% CSW% so far this year in outstanding leaps forward across the board. The righty is facing a very talented Mariners squad, but one that has not hit exactly as they were expected to so far this season. Seattle’s active roster ranks just 19th with a .156 ISO and 16th with a 103 WRC+ in the split against righties this year. Keller looks like a fine enough play at $10,100/$11,400 but the matchup is not ideal and there is a deep list of options that project equally well or, in several cases, better than Pittsburgh’s righty, including his opponent. Keller is playable, if he is under-owned he gains appeal, but the Mariners’ bats are not entirely wiped out despite a 3.88-run total. JP Crawford is an effective correlated scoring play at shortstop in a leadoff role, he has a 110 WRC+ and .360 OBP in 190 plate appearances but has not been great in the leadoff role over the last 10 days or so. Ty France is slashing .266/.344/.415 with a 119 WRC+ and five home runs this season, he needs to get his power going a bit more and his hit tool should definitely come along as the season progresses. France was an underrated player coming into the year, now he is underperforming that expectation, which makes him properly rated(?). Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic are the team’s future stars, they have a combined 17 home runs so far this year but both have been up and down, with Kelenic going further up and Rodriguez further down. Both outfielders are affordable and playable in this matchup. Eugenio Suarez has five home runs but just a .108 ISO and 95 WRC+ in 218 plate appearances as a cheap third baseman. He has an 11.2% barrel rate and 45.6% hard-hit rate to inspire a degree of faith in the formerly elite power hitter. Cal Raleigh and Teoscar Hernandez can mash from late in the lineup, Raleigh has seven home runs and Hernandez has nine for the season. Taylor Trammell has power and will not be popular, he has hit three home runs and costs just $2,100/$2,600 if he is in the lineup, but the spot is not great for the inexperienced formerly well-thought-of prospect. Jose Caballero closes out the lineup and the slate in low-end fashion, he has two home runs and a 141 WRC+ in 77 plate appearances, the run creation mark is very good but seems unlikely to be sustained in the long term. Caballero is a mix-and-match infielder at a cheap price.
Play: George Kirby, Mitch Keller
Update Notes: the confirmed Seattle lineup runs as it was projected with Kolten Wong instead of Caballero in the ninth spot. The Pirates lineup includes Connor Joe hitting third with between Reynolds and Santana with Suwinski fifth followed by Hayes-Marcano-Bae-Hedges.
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