The fast-approaching MLB DFS main slate gets underway at 6:40 ET with seven games on the blue site with DraftKings hopping on at 7:05 ET for a six-game contest. The FanDuel slate includes an excellent matchup between the Braves and Phillies that has the loaded Atlanta lineup at the top of our aggregate projections board, despite the presence of Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola on the mound in a bit of a both-sided situation. The slate has premium arms beyond Nola, there are several premium arms and a handful of viable options in the mid-range with something of a lack of total clunker options across the 13 available starters and one opener/bulk reliever situation. A few of the starters are less talented and more targetable than others, either from inexperience of just on ability, so we do have targets for bats tonight, but the highest implied total on the board in Vegas is a mere 4.89, with an average implied total of 4.26. This has teams tightly packed on the projections board, there is very little separation across the top eight to ten stacks.
Don’t miss our new Stack Suggestions feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
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Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 6/21/23
Atlanta Braves (+122/4.02) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-132/4.58)
The FanDuel slate gets underway with a good divisional matchup in the NL East that has the hard-hitting Braves taking on Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola, who has been off-form but pitching OK for most of 2023. The right-handed veteran has made 15 starts and thrown a good total of 94.2 innings, but he has a 4.66 ERA and 3.91 xFIP that look out of place alongside last year’s 3.25 and 2.77. Nola posted a 4.63 ERA and 3.37 xFIP over 32 starts in 2021 but struck out 29.8% of opposing hitters that season. After posting a 29.1% strikeout rate alongside last year’s excellent run numbers, Nola has dipped to 24.4% this season and appears to be getting fewer called strikes. The starter’s walk rate has doubled, but it sits at a still-good 6.3% and he has allowed an a-typical amount of power with a 3.94% home run rate on 8.4% barrels, which could play to Atlanta’s talents. Nola typically works deep into games regardless of whether he has allowed a few runs, he should be good for six innings and has a chance to book a win and/or quality start in this contest, but the matchup is brutal and the pitcher has not been himself on the mound. The struggles are baked into Nola’s $9,300 price tag on the FanDuel slate, he slots into a tight top-seven on the pitching board but lands seventh on that list by projection. Meanwhile, the Braves are averaging out to be our highest projected team on an also-tight stacks board. Atlanta’s power-hitting potential and run-creation abilities overcome even a talented pitcher like Nola in our model, which does not even have the full picture of the pitcher’s recent returns. The Atlanta lineup opens with superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. who is second in baseball with a .327 average, trailing Luis Arraez by 71 points. Acuna finishes his triple-slash with a .403 on-base percentage and .558 slugging percentage, he is a tremendous talent at the plate. The outfield star has 15 home runs and 31 stolen bases. The stolen bases total also ranks second in baseball, this time Acuna sits six behind the lead with Esteury Ruiz at 37. Acuna is worth his salary on every slate, he is an easy click even with Nola on the mound and a $4,600 price. Ozzie Albies has 17 home runs, putting him second on the team and first among MLB second basemen. Albies is a star who is underappreciated by the MLB DFS industry and costs just $3,500. Austin Riley has 12 home runs amidst some struggles for regular production during a slightly down first half. Riley is one of our top candidates for a monster second half of the season, he is slashing .259/.323/.430 with a .171 ISO but we would wager those numbers are going to trend way up before October arrives. The star third baseman is priced way down at $3,000 tonight. Catcher Travis d’Arnaud is in the lineup in place of regular backstop Sean Murphy, who is day to day with a sore hamstring. While d’Arnaud is certainly a downgrade from one of baseball’s best offensive catchers, he is no slouch with four home runs in 111 plate appearances this year and 18 in 426 last season. Matt Olson is a lefty who mashes at first base, he has 21 home runs and a .276 ISO with a 127 WRC+ but has dropped further down the lineup with his triple-slash sitting at just .233/.347/.509. Outfielder Marcell Ozuna has rocked 13 home runs and has a .231 ISO over 225 plate appearances and has a 7.88 in our home run model. Eddie Rosario is having a very good season for a player who is an afterthought for many. Rosario has 13 home runs and is slashing .271/.311/.520 with a .249 ISO and 118 WRC+. The outfielder has been a productive player in years past, it’s just been a minute since he was this productive. In 2017, 2018, and 2019, Rosario hit 27, 24, and 32 home runs while playing for the Twins, and he hit 13 in the 60-game season in 2020. Rosario was limited over the past two seasons, he made 412 plate appearances in 2021 and hit 14 home runs while stealing 11 bases but he missed much of 2022 with only 270 opportunities at the dish. All of this is to say it is not entirely surprising that a healthy Rosario is producing numbers in such a good lineup, he is still only 31 years old, this is no washed-up formerly good player at $3,000 tonight. Orlando Arcia and Michael Harris II are an enviable tandem to have at the bottom of a lineup. Arcia is slashing .341/.400/.489 with six home runs and a 143 WRC+ over 200 plate appearances and he fits in at shortstop, third base, or second base for $3,000. Harris has been coming on strong and now sits at .249/.305/.399 with a .150 ISO, six home runs, and seven stolen bases; get him while he’s still cheap at $2,800.
The Phillies will try to answer all of that offensive upside with bats of their own and they are facing a rookie hurler making his third career start. AJ Smith-Shawver checks in for just $8,000 on the FanDuel slate, but he lands at a mid-board projection that falls well below the big group of good options at the top, making him more of an also-ran option on the single-starter site. Smith-Shawver has a 21.2% strikeout rate in his 13.1 innings in the Show, he struck out three Diamondbacks over 2.1 innings of relief work in his first appearance, had a good outing over 5.1 in his first full start against the Nationals but managed only two strikeouts, then came to life with six punchouts against the Rockies, but allowed a pair of home runs and three earned runs on six total hits. Smith-Shawver is a highly-regarded young pitcher finding his way at this level, it would not be surprising to see an effective start, but it would be equally unsurprising to see him cough up a few long balls and a handful of runs to the talented Phillies. A major challenge looms in the first spot in the Philadelphia batting order with Kyle Schwarber and all of his left-handed power. Schwarber has 20 home runs and a .263 ISO while creating runs 12% better than average. He strikes out at a 28.3% clip but walks 16.7% of the time and tattoos the ball when he makes contact. Schwarber has a 15.7% barrel rate and 47.7% hard-hit rate this season that are outstanding but are actually down from last season’s massive 20.1% barrels and 54.4% hard hits. The lefty costs $3,800 with a 12.13 to lead the team in our home run model. That mark ranks fourth overall on the home run board on a light-hitting slate. Trea Turner has swiped 12 bases despite getting on at just a .293 clip. The star shortstop has been underperforming dramatically at the plate this season and the turn has yet to arrive, Turner is sitting at just .244/.293/.380 overall with a .135 ISO and is 20% below average for run creation, which is 48 points below what he posted last season. Turner hit 21 home runs and stole 27 bases in 2022 and was a 28/32 player in 2021, there is massive slate-to-slate upside at the very worst and he is priced down for just $3,200. Nick Castellanos is having the opposite season, he has a .315/.360/.491 triple-slash with eight home runs and has created runs 29% better than average. Castellanos has always been about this level of player, he just had a bad year last season and everyone wrote him off. For $3,300, it seems that FanDuel is still not fully committed to the return to form, Castellanos is a strong option who has an 11.1% barrel rate and 45.9% hard-hit mark this season. Bryce Harper is slashing .301/.393/.423 but has just a .122 ISO and three home runs over 183 plate appearances since his return. Harper has still created runs 21% better than average and is arguably cheap at $3,600, particularly given the first base eligibility he is afforded in addition to outfield positioning on the blue site. JT Realmuto is a top option at catcher, he has eight home runs and 10 stolen bases while creating runs nine percent ahead of the curve. The star backstop is easy to afford at $3,200 and he is talented enough that he fits in FanDuel lineups despite his position. Bryson Stott is a strong option at second base as an affordable correlated-scoring play that has individual upside. Stott has hit seven home runs and stolen 11 bags while slashing .295/.333/.427 and has created runs five percent better than average while hitting all over the lineup. Alec Bohm missed some time but had been out to a good start, he has seven home runs and two steals with a 93 WRC+ and comes cheap at $2,800 with eligibility at first and third base. Kody Clemens is projected to hit eighth, he has four home runs and a .149 ISO for $2,100 at first base, but there are several better positional options on this team. Brandon Marsh is another lefty slugger late in the lineup, he has five home runs and four stolen bases with a 107 WRC+.
Play: Braves bats/stacks, Aaron Nola, Phillies bats/stacks, Smith-Shawver is good but he is not our preferred value play on a deep slate
Update Notes:
Seattle Mariners (-152/3.90) @ New York Yankees (+140/3.18)
The Mariners and Yankees face off in a game with mismatched pitching. The hometown Yankees have minor-league talent on the mound with Jhony Brito, who spent 40.1 innings earlier in the season proving that he does not belong at this level. Brito has a limited arsenal that is primarily focused on a 96 mph power sinker and a middling changeup that has good movement. He works in a low-end curveball when he cannot think of anything else and also changes gears at 96mph with a four-seamer. Brito has good horizontal movement on his four-seamer, changeup, and sinker, but his arsenal amounted to a 5.58 ERA and 5.32 xFIP with a 16.9% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate over nine starts. His high point came in his debut, a five-inning six-strikeout shoutout of the Giants back on April 2nd. Since that start, he averaged 2.6 strikeouts per appearance. Brito is not good enough to beat this Mariners team with ease, but there is a chance that he finds some strikeouts against the free-swingers if his stuff is working. Even with that in mind, he is a very limited option at $6,800/$6,100, Brito would have more appeal in the $5,000s on DraftKings, he does not look like a viable option tonight. The Mariners are drawing strong scoring projections and good marks for power up and down the lineup. They have a collective 30.7% strikeout rate from 1-9 in the projected form of the batting order, which is what Brito fans will be targeting, but they also have a 7.17 average in our home run model with a few excellent power bats ready to tee-off on Brito’s 3.93% home run rate and 11.7% barrels. Jarred Kelenic has 11 home runs with eight stolen bases and has created runs 27% better than average for the season but has dipped in June with a .188/.316/.354 triple-slash and .167 ISO and a 95 WRC+. Kelenic hit seven of his home runs in March and April, with three in May and only one so far in June, he is a roller coaster at the plate but there is plenty of talent for MLB DFS purposes at $4,700/$3,100. Julio Rodriguez is slashing .240/.299/.422 overall but his counting stats are mostly intact with 12 home runs and 15 stolen bases, we just greedily want more from the young star. Rodriguez is cheap for his ceiling at $5,400/$3,700 and has a 9.68 to lead the hard-hitting Mariners in our home run model on a light-hitting day. Ty France is slashing .275/.345/.418 and is the one Mariners hitter with a respectable strikeout rate at 16.4%. In fact, that makes France the one Mariners’ hitter with a non-ridiculous strikeout rate. 30.7% for the lineup! Ridiculous. Teoscar Hernandez has a 13.3% barrel rate and 48.9% hard-hit rate with 12 home runs on the board this season, Cal Raleigh has nine long balls with a 12.9% barrel rate but just a 36.7% hard-hit rate, and Eugenio Suarez brings up the bottom with just seven homers and an 11.2% barrel rate with a 45.5% hard-hit rate. The trio sells out for power, they are very much in play for home run upside but expectations for sequencing and run creation are somewhat capped and zeros are always in play. Mike Ford has interesting lefty power against a bad pitcher in Yankee Stadium for just $2,200/$2,100. Dylan Moore and Kolten Wong are moveable parts at the bottom of the Mariners lineup.
The Yankees have several talented hitters who pull decent projections even against the best of starters, their position on the stacks board today is challenging with Luis Castillo on the mound, there is some appeal in taking shots at what should be very low ownership on several premium bats at good prices, but Castillo is a well-established ace who has a 2.73 ERA with a 3.42 xFIP and 29.6% strikeout rate over 82.1 innings in 2023. The righty has been a force on the mound for several years, he has allowed a bit of premium contact this season with a 9.7% barrel rate and 45.9% hard hits, both of which are way up from last season, but it has only cost him a 2.72% home run rate and he is missing bats aggressively at a 15.6% swinging-strike rate that sits among the league leaders. Castillo has a good chance at posting a slate-leading pitching score tonight, he is our second-highest projected pitcher today, but there is just a 2.5-point spread between the top option and the sixth-best starter on a crowded pitching slate. Castillo is a good option, if he draws less attention than he deserves at $10,100/$10,600 he is an even better play in tournaments. The Yankees projected lineup opens in flawed fashion with Jake Bauers, who walks at a decent 10.7% clip but has struck out 29.8% of the time in his 121 plate appearances. Bauers has five home runs and two stolen bases and has created runs eight percent better than average, he is a moderately capable fill-in player for this team who will probably keep a roster spot after they get healthy, but he should be hitting fifth not first. For DFS purposes, however, Bauers gains steam from the spot in the lineup and he is a good option if rostering the Yankees at just $2,700/$2,600. Gleyber Torres has 12 home runs and a 113 WRC+ at second base, he has been aggressively putting the ball in play this season and is a worthwhile investment at $5,500/$3,000 when stacking this team, though the DraftKings price could be lower in this spot. Giancarlo “don’t call me Mike” Stanton has massive power potential in any matchup on any slate, but he has not found his form after another long stint on the injured list. Stanton is cheap at $5,200/$2,900, he should probably never be priced that low, this is still one of the best power hitters of his generation and he is healthy, just scuffling. From the hated eyeball test, Stanton simply looks like he is trying to win games 10-0 with one swing every time at the plate, his timing is off and his balance is not quite right, he will eventually settle in and stop trying to make up for Aaron Judge’s absence, we want to be ahead of the curve at these prices when he does. Anthony Rizzo cracked a long shot off the wall last night and has a decent home run mark for a matchup against Castillo tonight. The left-handed first baseman has 11 home runs this season but has been in a downswing over the last few weeks which has him priced way down at $4,100/$2,500 in this matchup. Josh Donaldson has six home runs in 63 opportunities, he has power and sells out for home run upside but that is about it for the cheap third baseman. There is no universe in which Donaldson should cost $300 more than Rizzo but that is the case on FanDuel, he is correctly priced at $4,100 on DraftKings. Harrison Bader has moderate power and good speed when he is healthy, he costs $4,000/$3,100 and is a good play from the sixth spot in the lineup. Bader would be a reasonable candidate for the leadoff spot if he could get on base with a bit of reliability. Billy McKinney homered last night at no cost or ownership, he has two on the season in 39 plate appearances and is slashing .289/.308/.579. McKinney was once a well-regarded prospect at the plate, he would warrant a few shares if one has an abundance of Yankees stacks in their plans. Kyle Higashioka is the better hitter among the Yankees catchers, he has a 14.1% barrel rate and 56.3% hard-hit rate with three home runs in 113 plate appearances and is cheap for $2,600/$2,200. Anthony Volpe‘s struggles have been well-documented in this space in recent weeks, he is nothing more than a mix-in option right now.
Play: Luis Castillo, Mariners bats/stacks, minor shares of Yankees contrarian stacks
Update Notes:
Oakland Athletics (+160/3.70) @ Cleveland Guardians (-174/4.89)
The game of the night sees the debut of heralded hurler Gavin Williams who checks in at just $5,700 on the DraftKings slate as an extreme value against one of baseball’s worst lineups. Williams is an option on the FanDuel slate for $8,300 as well, he projects among the top options on the slate and has the potential for strikeouts, a win, and a quality start against this team. Williams had a 37.7% strikeout rate and 3.00 xFIP with a 0.63 ERA in three starts and 14.1 innings in AA to start the year, then posted a 3.95 xFIP and 2.93 ERA in 46 innings and nine starts in AAA, where he struck out more advanced hitters at a 33.3% pace but did walk 11.5% while also posting the top swinging-strike rate in AAA over the sample. Williams has a plus-plus fastball that is very highly regarded by Stuff+ metrics, it sits 97 and works up into triple-digits, he also has an elite slider and developing curve and changeup. At his prices, Williams is a good play on FanDuel and a very strong buy at SP2 on DraftKings. The Athletics are showing a bit of power in the obvious spots, with Brent Rooker and all of his well-documented flaws leading the way at an 11.30 in our home run model. Rooker costs just $2,600/$2,800, which is about right for the level of player that he actually is. The outfielder has swung back to the other side of the value spectrum and is now a moderate buy with a bit of power potential for those rostering Athletics. Rooker may still strike out four times in this game, but at least the price is correct. Esteury Ruiz leads off for Oakland, he leads baseball with 37 stolen bases and may speed up with Acuna closing in on his total. Ryan Noda has dropped to a .389 on-base percentage, which is still elite but is a big dip from the .400+ levels he had a week or two ago. Noda has seven home runs and a 135 WRC+ but also strikes out 32.8% of the time while walking 18.3%, he could be a challenging hitter for the rookie starter. Rooker hits third ahead of cleanup lefty Seth Brown, who is still probably the best bat in this lineup. Brown went 25/11 last season in 555 plate appearances but sits at just 4 home runs and two steals in 127 tries after suffering an injury early this year. Jace Peterson, JJ Bleday, Aledmys Diaz, Tony Kemp, and Shea Langeliers are a non-threatening group for the rookie to face. There are playable parts in small doses in that group, but it would not be a mistake to skip them entirely unless building numerous Oakland stacks. Peterson and Bleday have moderate pop on the left side of the plate, Diaz and Kemp are mix-and-match level infielders with multi-position eligibility at cheap prices, and Langeliers is a hard-hitting cheap catcher.
The Guardians are pulling down another fairly meaty run total in Vegas tonight after either disappointing badly or exactly meeting expectations, depending on your perspective in last night’s contest. The Guardians were one of the highest-totaled teams on the board and played exactly to their current form in scoring only three runs, and needing a 10th inning to get that third one after not scoring until the seventh. Cleveland has been bad at the plate all year, they are not sequencing, they are not hitting for power, and they are not creating runs. The Guardians are a flawed option for MLB DFS purposes even in a matchup against Paul Blackburn, who is not entirely inept on the mound. Blackburn is a better pitcher than what the Guardians faced last night, he has a 3.48 ERA and 4.06 xFIP over four starts and 20.2 innings this season and had a 4.28 ERA with a 3.89 xFIP in 111.1 innings and 21 starts in 2022. The righty is clearly not an ace, he had a 19.1% strikeout rate on 9.6% swinging strikes last year while allowing too much premium contact with 40.5% hard hits but just a 3.05% home run rate. This season he has boosted strikeouts in the tiny sample and sits at 25.3% with a 10.9% swinging-strike rate. The matchup against the Guardians is one in which Blackburn can find clean innings, but strikeout upside is more difficult to come by. At $8,200/$6,800, the pitcher is an awkward price fit, he should probably cost $6,800 on DraftKings which would have him in play, his ability to book the quality start is somewhat of a question on the FanDuel slate, making him a risk on a very deep slate with another option who costs less and projects higher available. The Guardians lineup is one that we will roster if they appear under-owned for how they project, but we will gladly undercut the field on them again if they are pulling popularity, which seems somewhat likely. Cleveland has not been a good baseball team this year but they have several useable parts and upside to get better in a hurry. Steven Kwan still puts everything in play and has wheels on the basepaths but is creating runs seven percent below average and gets on base at just a .336 clip which is down nearly 40 points year over year. Kwan is affordable in the leadoff role ahead of Amed Rosario who has a 79 WRC+ with one home run in 284 plate appearances. Jose Ramirez is a star third baseman who has 11 home runs and has come to life in recent weeks after scuffling for a bit. Ramirez is slashing .287/.350/.504 with a .217 ISO and 125 WRC+, he has stolen six bases and is striking out at a microscopic 8.5% rate this season. Josh Naylor and his brother Bo Naylor bring some power to the lineup, Josh should hit cleanup behind Ramirez and Bo is likely to land in the ninth spot in the lineup as a cheap catcher. Both Naylors are plays when rostering Guardians stacks, they have good power in the 18-20 home run range for a season, Josh has a bit of upside beyond that level, Bo is a rookie with 18 MLB plate appearances in his ledger. Josh Bell and Andres Gimenez were expected to produce far more than a 97 and 91 WRC+ this season. They have both been in the lineup most days but have a combined 11 home runs and have not struck the ball well at all this season. Will Brennan is an OK mix-in option late in the lineup and Myles Straw is a defense and stolen bases slap-hitter with minimal DFS value.
Play: Gavin Williams, Guardians bats/stacks but undercut the field again if they are popular, minor Athletics value shares or Blackburn shares at minimal interest
Update Notes:
Boston Red Sox (+108/4.16) @ Minnesota Twins (-117/4.43)
The Red Sox and Twins are looking like a good spot from which to extract pitching value, despite some good bats on both sides. The game in Minnesota has both teams at limited but not low totals compared to other options on the board, so rostering bats on either side in small doses in a hedge position is smart, but we are interested in the starters on both sides in this one. Sonny Gray has been excellent this season, pitching to a 2.37 ERA and 3.69 xFIP with a 24.8% strikeout rate over 14 starts and 76 innings. The righty has worked in a new cutter – which was examined in detail on Fangraphs – to great effect, he has a 24.8% strikeout rate and is inducing swinging strikes at an 11.6% clip which is up more than two points year over year. Gray has always been effective on the mound, but with another weapon in his arsenal he has been even more effective and he has been outstanding at limiting power this year with just a 0.31% home run rate. Gray has allowed just one homer while facing 319 hitters in his 14 starts. For just $9,700/$9,900 Gray looks like a strong buy on both sites in his matchup against the Red Sox tonight. Boston’s lineup is of limited appeal, they would be a hedge position against Gray popularity and shares, but they are a top-heavy squad. Alex Verdugo has a 128 WRC+ and is difficult to punch out, he has a 12.1% strikeout rate over 313 plate appearances and costs just $4,500/$3,300. Verdugo is a good correlated scoring option in Red Sox stacks. Justin Turner has 10 homers and a 122 WRC+ in 303 opportunities and comes cheap on both sites. Rafael Devers is the team’s star, he leads the way with 17 home runs and a .245 ISO that stand out among the lighter-hitting teammates. Devers has not been as great for run creation or in his triple-slash ghit season but he makes outstanding contact at the plate at a 13.1% barrel rate and 52.6% hard-hit. Masataka Yoshida is slashing .308/.379/.488 and should probably hit ahead of Devers. The first-year star costs $5,300/$3,400 and is a bit of a discounted buy on FanDuel when rostering Red Sox. Adam Duvall has massive power upside, he has five home runs in 76 plate appearances with a .358 ISO this year, which obviously will come down over time. The home run potential in Duvall is very real, he has three 30 home run seasons in his career and is not done at the plate. Jarren Duran slots into the sixth spot in the projected lineup, which is missing Triston Casas, though the first baseman does not appear to be injured and seems like he should play in this matchup. Duran has been up and down at the plate but sits at .300/.360/.467 with a 123 WRC+ and 11 stolen bases in 200 plate appearances. Christian Arroyo, Reese McGuire, and Enrique Hernandez are limited underwhelming veterans late in the lineup.
The high-strikeout Twins will be facing Garrett Whitlock, a talented right-handed starter who has a bit of strikeout upside of his own and lands as a significant bargain on both sites. Whitlock costs just $7,000/$6,600 and is our value pitcher du jour across the industry. He has a 20.9% strikeout rate over 39 innings and seven starts this season but worked at a 26.4% rate across 78.1 in nine starts last year and was at 27.2% in 73.1 innings out of the bullpen in 2021. Whitlock is still inducing an excellent 12.8% swinging-strike rate and has a 30.6% CSW% this season, which is almost an exact match for the strike-throwing he displayed in 2021. There is major potential in this matchup, the projected Twins lineup has a 28.8% strikeout rate this season and Whitlock has gained depth in his recent starts, pitching into the seventh two games back and completing seven innings in his most recent start. At his price, Whitlock should be very popular, but he may slip under the radar with several buzzy options joining the obvious aces. The Red Sox starter looks like an excellent option for tournament play tonight. The Twins can be rostered against him in moderate portions, Whitlock does have a 4.38 ERA and 3.90 xFIP with a 3.80% home run rate and an 8.5% barrel rate, but his hard hits are just at 36.8% and he has walked only 4.4%, a sustained trait that adds to his upside. Edouard Julien, Carlos Correa, Alex Kirilloff, Byron Buxton, and Joey Gallo are a challenging group of hitters for Whitlock to face, they have massive power potential at the plate but also strike out aggressively. Julien has four home run and a 116 WRC+ in 109 rookie plate appearances, but also strikes out at a 33.9% clip so far. Correa has slumped all season and has a 24.6% strikeout rate that is well above his typical performance. The shortstop hits the ball hard regularly but has not seen results for his 12.5% barrels beyond the nine home runs and .190 ISO he has posted. Kirilloff strikes out at a 25% pace, Buxton 30.5%, and Gallo 37.6%. They have four, 11, and 11 home runs on the season and would be better if Buxton and Gallo had been in the lineup all season. Royce Lewis has low-cost potential for MLB DFS scoring, he is slashing .311/.333/.475 with three home runs and a 125 WRC+ in his 63 opportunities in the Show this year. Max Kepler has lefty power late in the lineup, with Christian Vazquez and productive Willi Castro rounding things out.
Play: Garrett Whitlock value on both sites, Sonny Gray, some portions of Red Sox or Twins bats as mid-level options
Update Notes:
Texas Rangers (-106/4.83) @ Chicago White Sox (-102/4.78)
The Vegas run totals in this one speak for themselves, among the available contests this is potentially the best one in which to find hitting on both sides of the plate. Michael Kopech is on the mound for the hometown White Sox, he has a 3.92 ERA with a 4.69 xFIP this season and has been a bit all over the map. Kopech has talent and good stuff when he is going right, he has a 26.7% strikeout rate and an 11.6% swinging-strike rate but his walks have yet to be tamed. Over 14 starts this year, Kopech has an unsightly 11.7% walk rate and 1.27 WHIP that do not help his cause, he has also allowed far too much premium contact at 14.7% barrels and a 42.1% hard-hit rate with 90.2 mph exit velocity and a 4.50% home run rate. The Rangers, meanwhile, remain an elite offense at the plate. The team has a ton of value with affordable prices up and down the batting order that help pay for the true stars while not sacrificing talent. Texas opens in typical form with Marcus Semien and Corey Seager who both have 10 home runs this season. Semien and Seager are such a perfect blend of talent that their home run ratings have begun to synch up in our model, the second baseman has a 7.85 tonight, and Seager has a 7.86. Josh Jung may be trying to join that party as well, he is slotted in third in the projected lineup with a 7.55 in our home run model. The third baseman has been excellent for most of this season, he has 15 home runs and a 130 WRC+ in 300 plate appearances and strikeouts are down 13 points in a massive improvement in his one questionable area. Adolis Garcia leads the team with 16 home runs and a .230 ISO over 311 plate appearances. At $5,500/$3,800, Garcia is probably a bit underpriced for his major potential in any given game, against Kopech he has terrific upside and a team-leading 8.83 in our home run model. Nathaniel Lowe and Jonah Heim are productive hitters with power and run creation talent for $4,200/$3,000 and $4,400/$3,400, they are joined by another hard-hitting catcher later in the lineup in Mitch Garver, who is priced at a similar $4,100/$3,200. The trio could be rostered as a stack on their own, Ezequiel Duran could be added to that group that would hit 1-4 if they were wearing Athletics uniforms. This deep lineup also features Leody Taveras in the ninth spot, he is slashing .305/.358/.490 with a 136 WRC+, eight home runs, and seven stolen bases this year.
On the Chicago side, a matchup against southpaw Martin Perez, who has not been pitching like his old self and looks more like his old self with a 4.54 ERA and 4.85 xFIP, and just a 15.9% strikeout rate. Perez has made 14 starts and has allowed a 3.54% home run rate while inducing just an 8.4% swinging-strike rate and walking 7.7% of opposing hitters with a 1.50 WHIP, the talented but underperforming White Sox could be a good option tonight, Perez is not appealing at $8,100 on FanDuel but has minor SP2 upside for $5,900 on DraftKings. Andrew Benintendi is projected to lead off, but could easily drop in the lineup against same-handed pitching even with the absence of Tim Anderson. Benintendi has underperformed with just a 95 WRC+ and .276/.344/.362 triple-slash. Andrew Vaughn costs just $3,100/$2,700, putting a second cheap option with talent at the top of the lineup. Vaughn has 10 home runs and a .189 ISO with a 109 WRC+ over 306 plate appearances. Luis Robert Jr. took the night off last night but should be back in the lineup to improve upon his 18 home runs and four stolen bases for the season. Robert has carried this team as far as he has been able, he has a 131 WRC+ with a .273 ISO and a 14% barrel rate in a big breakout season. Eloy Jimenez is healthy, which we don’t even want to type too loudly, let alone say, for fear of reprisal from the baseball gods. Jimenez is a star when he is in the lineup, he has major power potential and has hit nine home runs in 180 plate appearances with a .204 ISO this season. Against the flawed version of Perez, Jimenez is a bargain at just $4,200/$3,000 in the outfield. Yasmani Grandal costs $3,400/$2,400, the catcher is getting on base at a .318 clip and creating runs three percent below average, his typically strong walk rate has vanished this season which cuts his value, he has five home runs and needs to hit for more power if he is not getting on base. Grandal is still a viable option, but he is more of the mix-in caliber at this point. Jake Burger has obliterated 16 long balls this season, chasing Robert for the team lead in an unexpected outburst of quality. The third baseman costs just $3,800/$2,900 and has potential in the matchup. While we are under no illusions that Burger is this star-caliber player over time, he has an excellent 20.3% barrel rate and 50% hard-hit rate over 199 plate appearances that justify the power output and defy the current pricing. Clint Frazier is a playable mix-in option late in the lineup, Elvis Andrus and Zach Remillard are less interesting.
Play: Rangers bats/stacks, White Sox bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Dodgers (+125/4.22) @ Los Angeles Angels (-136/4.88)
Another battle between two mismatched pitchers takes place in the ongoing battle for Los Angeles, with superstar Shohei Ohtani on the hill for the home team, and easily skippable Michael Grove putting on a big target costume and standing on the mound for an hour or so for the Dodgers. Ohtani is the play for pitching, despite a deadly matchup against the Dodgers, but he ranks only sixth on our tightly packed board, so popularity would be a good directional indicator for share decisions. If Ohtani is getting attention on either site he can be undercut in favor of similar options at a range of prices that are all lower than the Angels aces’ list price on either site. Ohtani is a pricey option who could easily break the slate over his knee tonight, but he is not invulnerable and the Dodgers are one of the most difficult matchups for strikeouts in baseball. Of course, the righty will answer that with his 31.7% strikeout rate and a 12.9% swinging strike rate for the season. Ohtani has a 3.29 ERA and 3.62 xFIP over 82 innings in 14 starts, he pitches fairly deep into games when he is going right and has not allowed a significant amount of premium contact with 33% hard hits and 85.1 mph of exit velocity despite an 8.2% barrel rate. Ohtani has walked too many this season, his walk rate spiked from 6.7% last year and 8.3% the year before to 10.6% this season, which could play up the Dodgers’ advantage at the plate. The Dodgers’ lineup opens with 18% strikeouts and 12.7% walks in the form of Mookie Betts who also has 17 home runs and a 137 WRC+ with a .245 ISO. Betts is a superstar in any matchup, he costs $6,200/$4,100 and maintains his triple-position eligibility on FanDuel which gives him unrivaled flexibility as one of the best options in the industry. Freddie Freeman strikes out at a 16.4% clip and walks 10.7% of the time, Will Smith is at 13.1% strikeouts and 15.3% walks, and David Peralta slots into the cleanup role tonight with a 16% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate. The Dodgers have seen talent on the mound before, the top of the lineup matches Ohtani talent-for-talent, this is a difficult spot on both sides. JD Martinez has 16 home runs and a .315 ISO this season, he has a massive 17.5% barrel rate and 53.2% hard-hit rate but does lean into the all-or-nothing approach and is the first exploitable spot for Ohtani at a 30% strikeout rate this year. James Outman is a young lefty with a 35.7% strikeout rate this year but nine home runs and a 10.3% barrel rate with a .200 ISO, there is a better than average chance that Outman sits in favor of a veteran bat off the bench tonight in a bad spot against Ohtani. Miguel Vargas, Miguel Rojas, and Michael Busch bring up the bottom of the projected batting order.
The Angels will face Grove, who has made six starts and has allowed a 5.84% home run rate with 10.3% barrels and 90.6 mph of exit velocity on 41.2% hard hits. Grove has an 8.10 ERA but a 4.23 xFIP in the unfairly small sample, he is not bereft of talent but he was also not very good in six other starts and 29.1 innings last year. In that sample, Grove gave up a 4.51% home run rate with 91.6 mph of exit velocity and a 43.4% hard-hit rate that sound familiar. This is a target of a pitcher and not an option on the mound. Mickey Moniak leads off the projected lineup, the productive first-overall pick has six home runs and two steals in 85 plate appearances while creating runs 60% better than average and slashing .305/.329/.634. The rookie outfielder has a 12.07 in our home run model. The second spot in the lineup is unfortunately dead for DFS, but in real life it is occupied by Ohtani, who will at least push the lineup onward, if he does not account for all of the scoring himself, in what would be a bad result for our purposes. Mike Trout is our overall home run pick of the day. The best player of his generation has a 15.02 to lead the entire home run model, and sometimes you just have to ride the chalk. Trout is a strong buy at $6,000/$3,900, his FanDuel price is too low. Brandon Drury has a dozen home runs in 272 plate appearances and is affordable with eligibility at first and second base on both sites. Matt Thaiss and Hunter Renfroe can both offer right-handed pop from later in the lineup, Renfroe is the one with a long track record, he has 12 home runs this year and hit 60 over the past two seasons combined. Thaiss costs $3,100/$2,200 and is a catcher bargain if he hits fifth in this lineup. The backstop has three home runs and 117 WRC+ in his 154 plate appearances and has a 10.1% barrel rate that is suggestive of additional power to come. Jared Walsh has a home run in 75 plate appearances but has yet to find his form after missing most of the first half. Luis Rengifo was a better mix-in last year but he is not off the board in the final third of the lineup, Andrew Velazquez does less with the bat.
Play: Angels bats/stacks, Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers bats/stacks in smaller but adequate portions as a, hopefully, contrarian shot for talent
Update Notes:
San Diego Padres (-116/4.16) @ San Francisco Giants (+107/3.93)
The final game of the slate arrives with a frustrating opener-bulk relief situation for the Giants again. This position is the exact one that was discussed on Monday, with Ryan Walker opening and the notion that Sean Manaea will follow. Manaea was rumored to be the bulk reliever Monday but never materialized, he is on normal rest after a short outing last Friday and should be the option tonight. Either pitcher gives upside to the elite Padres and, given the unpredictable situation, we are reluctant to recommend the situation for use on the mound. The Padres will start out against Walker, who has a 25% strikeout rate and 2.71 xFIP but just a 9.5% swinging-strike rate in his 14.2 innings this season. The righty will face Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, and Manny Machado to start, we wish him well. That trio of hitters is an awesome start to a lineup, and we mean that in the traditional definition of the word (“What, like a hot dog?“). Tatis has 15 home runs and 12 stolen bases with a .277 ISO and 152 WRC+ in 245 plate appearances and has a 14.54 in tonight’s home run model. Soto has 13 homers with a .228 ISO and 149 WRC+ in 319 chances and somehow costs just $5,800/$3,200, the FanDuel price is dramatically off base. Machado has scuffled to .247/.287/.392 with an 86 WRC+ but will be fine by seasons’ end, we will gladly continue to take the discount. Xander Bogaerts is in a similar boat to Machado, we have more than enough of a track record to know that there is a discount involved on an excellent but underperforming player, which is great for DFS. Bogarets costs $4,900/$3,000 at shortstop and still has a 109 WRC+ for the season. Jake Cronenworth is slashing just .209/.313/.360 with a 90 WRC+ and has not been the useful part in this lineup that he typically provides. Gary Sanchez should be back in the batting order tonight, he has mashed six quick home runs in 74 plate appearances with the Padres but does not do much else at the plate. Matt Carpenter, Ha-Seong Kim, and Trent Grisham round out the projected lineup.
The Giants are facing Yu Darvish, who has a 4.74 ERA and 3.78 xFIP over 13 starts and 74 innings. Darvish is another veteran starter who has not quite been pitching to form this season. He has a 25.9% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate, the free passes are up about three points year over year and his WHIP has claimed from 0.95 to 1.20, but his strikeout rate is about the same as last year on similar swinging-strike and CSW% numbers. Darvish has been moderately effective at limiting power, he is a tier down from star-caliber at this point, but there is potential for a strong outing with the matchup against a fairly aggressive Giants lineup. The projected starting lineup for San Francisco has a 23.5% strikeout rate this season. There are a few good options in the Giants lineup, they are a lower-mid option for stacking that may not be very popular tonight, but the matchup is not overly strong against Darvish, this is a bit of a both-sided situation with only moderate shares of either side, and a lean toward the Darvish option over Giants bats. Joc Pederson is slated to lead off, the lefty thumper has eight home runs in 150 plate appearances with a .242 ISO and 145 WRC+. Thairo Estrada hits for power and steals bases, he has nine homers and 17 steals in 277 opportunities this year while creating runs 20% better than average for the productive team. JD Davis and Michael Conforto have power on either side of the plate, Davis is a righty who has 10 home runs with a stout 11.4% barrel rate and 49.4% hard-hit rate and a 133 WRC+ this season, Conforto has a 107 WRC+ with a dozen home runs. Mike Yastrzemski adds 10 home runs of his own from the left side and has a 47.5% hard-hit rate for $3,200/$2,900 in the outfield. Luis Matos is a rookie with potential for moderate power and good speed production, he has a stolen base in 25 plate appearances so far in the Show. Patrick Bailey, Brandon Crawford, and David Villar add productive mix-in value options to the bottom of the Giants’ projected lineup.
Play: Padres bats/stacks, Yu Darvish, Giants bats/stacks
Update Notes:
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