A massive 14-game Tuesday main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel has us at Ludicrous Speed and already behind schedule. The slate looks like a fun one, there are 28 teams in play with a bit of everything on tap, but thankfully no Coors Field game. The slate includes a handful of premium pitching options, with enough of a good middle to create leverage opportunities against the public’s exposures, which will be concentrated around only a few of the high-end options. At the plate, there are numerous stacking opportunities, which are well-illustrated in our new Stack Suggestions feature and our Power Index.
Join us at 4:15 ET for a LIVE Game-by-Game breakdown:
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 6/13/23
Toronto Blue Jays (-122/4.48) @ Baltimore Orioles (+113/4.11)
Toronto is facing Dean Kremer, who is currently pitching like a roughly league-average righty with a 4.89 ERA and 4.56 xFIP, and a 19.6% strikeout rate in 70 innings and 13 starts. Kremer has allowed premium contact and power, his 10.5% barrel rate and 47.3% hard-hit rate create 90.8 mph of exit velocity on average, amounting to a 3.99% home run rate. Kremer costs $7,500/$7,900 and does not look like a strong option on a deep slate against a tough opponent. The Blue Jays’ 4.48-run implied team total sits in the middle of the board, they are our sixth-ranked team for points projections but land slightly higher on our value board and have mid-range home run upside. The top of Toronto’s lineup features star power with George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who have tremendous power, run creation acumen, speed, and on-base skills between them. Springer and Guerrero have nine home runs each with a 105 and 123 WRC+ and Bichette leads the team with 14 long balls and a 139 WRC+. Matt Champan hit his ninth home run of the season last night, he has a 60.7% hard-hit rate and has been pounding baseballs at fair prices all year. Daulton Varsho has 11 home runs on the season after coming on with the power bat recently. Whit Merrifield has 17 stolen bases and gets on at a .358 clip while creating runs 12% better than average as a good correlated scoring play late in the lineup, while Alejandro Kirk, Nathan Lukes, and Cavan Biggio offer price, popularity, and positional options.
The Orioles frisky lineup is facing Chris Bassitt who lands on our board with a good projection at a fair price on both sites. Bassitt is extremely reliable for depth, he has thrown 82 innings in his 13 starts and typically works beyond the quality start bonus. The righty has a 3.29 ERA and 4.41 xFIP on the season, he has allowed an 8.4% barrel rate and 3.64% home runs on 34.4% hard hits and 87.5 mph of exit velocity, but is more than capable of finding clean innings against Baltimore. Bassitt is a buy at $9,000/$9,600, he ranks among our top pitching options on both sites. The Orioles can be deployed in small doses, their 4.11-run implied total is uninspiring, but there are good players in the lineup. Gunnar Henderson has nine home runs and has pushed his way up to .236/.349/.455 with a .219 ISO and 125 WRC+ in a rapid ascendance, he will probably not slow down any time soon. Adley Rutschman is a high-end catcher for $5,400/$3,100, he has eight home runs and has created runs 26% better than average so far in 2023. Anthony Santander and Austin Hays are the other two premium options in the lineup. Santander has nine home runs and a .208 ISO with a 47.4% hard-hit rate, Hays is slashing .301/.339/.491 with a 128 WRC+. Ryan O’Hearn, Aaron Hicks, Ramon Urias, Adam Frazier, and Jorge Mateo are mostly mix-in pieces from later in the lineup. Any of the group can succeed, Mateo was a superstar for the month of April, and there are reliably good value plays in Urias and Frazier, but none stand out for quality on a giant slate.
Play: Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Colorado Rockies (+192/3.90) @ Boston Red Sox (-212/5.72)
The Rockies are a low-end stacking option with just a 3.90-run implied team total against Kutter Crawford in Boston, they come in as significant underdogs with the Red Sox at -212. Crawford has made four starts and has a 24.5% strikeout rate with a 3.68 ERA and 3.83 xFIP in the small sample which includes bullpen innings. The righty has a 13.8% swinging-strike rate and 27.2% CSW%, the swinging strikes are up 2.5 points from what he posted in 77.1 innings and 12 starts last year in a nice sign of growth, but the righty has not been pitching beyond the third inning in his return to the rotation. Crawford does not project strongly enough with a four-inning mark to cover his $5,900/$6,100 salary. This does not make the Rockies a recommended play either however, the team is lousy and there is enough talent on the mound that Crawford could keep them well in check before handing off to the bullpen. Colorado’s projected lineup includes below-average Jurickson Profar; solid power prospect Nolan Jones, who is projected to hit second and has four home runs and four stolen bases in his 59 plate appearances; Ryan McMahon, who has a team-leading 10 home runs and a 107 WRC+ for the season; and Elias Diaz as a playable catcher option who has a good stick with a .294/.351/.448 triple-slash and six home runs in 222 plate appearances. Randal Grichuk, Mike Moustakas, Ezequiel Tovar, Harold Castro, and Brenton Doyle round out the projected lineup. Grichuk is a good veteran hitter who has been showing off his hit tool instead of his expected righty power this year, Moustakas has three home runs in 113 plate appearances but hasn’t done much in a few years, Tovar has been lousy in his rookie season so far, Castro is a good veteran player in real life but is a limited MLB DFS option with very little power upside, and Doyle is an interesting rookie power hitter on the right side of the plate who has four home runs and eight steals in 123 plate appearances.
The Red Sox are facing washed-up righty Chase Anderson, who has a 2.25 ERA and a 4.76 xFIP with a 15.3% strikeout rate in five starts and 32 innings. Anderson was not good over seven starts last year or in nine starts the season before, he is a target on the mound and the Red Sox have a 5.72-run implied total that lands them as the highest team on the board by nearly a half-run. The plays in the Red Sox lineup are fairly obvious up top, the team is a bit top-heavy with defensively-focused position players in the final few spots, but there is elite power and very good run creation ability from at least 1-5 in the lineup. Jarren Duran has a 107 WRC+ with three home runs and eight stolen bases and could be a good leadoff option going forward for the Red Sox if they prefer to let Alex Verdugo hit second. Verdugo has a 118 WRC+ with a .361 on-base percentage, his 38.8% hard-hit rate and 5.6% barrel rate with five home runs play a bit better in the leadoff role, but he is capable of driving the ball and picking up baserunners as well. Mastaka Yoshida has been the Red Sox’ best player this year, he has created runs 32% better than average and has seven home runs with a .167 ISO and a .303/.377/.469 triple-slash. Rafael Devers is one of the leading options in our home run model for the entire slate at 16.91. Devers has 15 long balls on the season with a .243 ISO and 105 WRC+ and he is slightly cheaper than he should be in this spot at $5,600/$3,700. Justin Turner and Triston Casas slot into the fifth and sixth spots in this configuration of the lineup. Turner is a capable veteran who is affordable as an option at first base on DraftKings and with added third base eligibility on FanDuel. The veteran has eight home runs and a 113 WRC+ in 27 plate appearances. Casas has not been great at the plate in terms of his run creation or triple-slash, but he has significant left-handed power against a bad righty in Fenway Park, he should be played, particularly at $2,600/$2,500 at first base. Casas will no doubt be popular in this spot, he is worth the effort in Red Sox stacks. Christian Arroyo, Reese McGuire, and Enrique Hernandez round out the lineup in low-end form. Any or all of the options could deliver, they are facing a very low-end pitcher, but they are mix-in value plays who have WRC+ marks of 85, 87, and 76.
Play: Red Sox bats/stacks
Update Notes:
New York Yankees (+142/3.39) @ New York Mets (-154/4.19)
The Subway Series in New York gets underway with a pair of premium pitchers on the mound. The Mets will have Max Scherzer taking the hill at home to face the visiting Yankees, who answer with Luis Severino. Vegas is seeing this as a pitching-oriented game, the Yankees are extremely limited at just a 3.39-run implied total while the Mets check in at just 4.19 and are without their star power hitter Pete Alonso. Scherzer has made 10 starts and thrown 53.1 innings of varying quality this year. The righty ace was dinged for five earned runs including a home run but struck out 10 over 5.2 innings against the Braves in his most recent start. Prior to that, Scherzer had made four straight starts in which he allowed one run three times and zero runs in the fourth, striking out six, five, eight, and nine against a range of competition. Scherzer has not been fully himself this season, but he has not been entirely bad by any means. The righty has a 3.71 ERA and 4.05 xFIP with a 26.6% strikeout rate and a 14.3% swinging-strike rate against a mediocre version of the Yankees lineup that is missing Aaron Judge. Any struggles that Scherzer might be facing are already baked into his price at $9,800/$9,400, he is very much in play with a strong projection tonight. Yankees bats are checking in ninth on the board by projections and the team is showing some value upside on our board as well, there are playable stars and a few good options for value in the lineup but they are severely limited in Vegas and likely to fail against Scherzer, ultimately landing the Yankees as just a lower-mid-range stack. Willie Calhoun is projected to lead off, he has a 100 WRC+ over 139 plate appearances with five home runs in an unexpectedly prominent role filling in for New York. Calhoun puts the ball in play effectively, he has a 12.2% strikeout rate ahead of Gleyber Torres, who is striking out at just a 12.9% clip this season. Torres has been very good at the plate, he has 11 home runs to tie Anthony Rizzo for the team lead in the current form of the lineup (Judge is out with more home runs than anyone on this team). Torres has a 112 WRC+ for the season, Rizzo is at 122 but has been slumping somewhat and is now down to .269/.344/.444 after a strong first two months. Giancarlo Stanton has five home runs in 78 plate appearances and needs to get rolling to carry the team in Judge’s absence. Stanton is a major power bat that Scherzer will have to navigate successfully three times tonight, he costs just $4,900/$3,300 and belongs in most stacks of Yankees hitters. Jake Bauers hits from the left side, as does Billy McKinney, they bookend veteran right-handed masher Josh Donaldson, who is in home-run-or-bust form. Bauers and McKinney are post-post-post-hype options who have been playing at value prices filling in for New York. Bauers has five home runs in 96 plate appearances with a .256 ISO and 115 WRC+, McKinney has a homer in his 17 plate appearances so far since coming up early last week. Donaldson is the most established player in the group, he has five home runs in 46 plate appearances, with three since coming back about 10 days ago. The third baseman is no one’s favorite player, but he costs just $3,300/$2,900 and has significant power at the plate. Jose Trevino is a defensively-oriented catcher, and Anthony Volpe is a struggling rookie shortstop against Max Scherzer, there might be a better option in general but he should be included in some Yankees stacks if one is building several.
Yankees righty Luis Severino has made four starts and thrown 20.1 innings this season, posting a 5.75 ERA and 4.78 xFIP with just a 20.2% strikeout rate. A fair amount of the run damage came in his third start, at Los Angeles to face the Dodgers. Severino gave up seven runs and was yanked after just four innings over which he struck out five and walked three. In his first two starts he allowed just a run in each outing, going 4.2 and 6.2 with five strikeouts against the Reds and Padres. He was not great against the White Sox in his most recent start, a six-strikeout five-inning affair in which he allowed four earned runs, which would have been OK had they not come on three home runs, which is a bit problematic. Severino has allowed a massive amount of premium contact in the tiny sample, he has a 14.3% barrel rate and a 7.87% home run rate. This is not to say that the Mets are a great option, particularly without Alonso, but it does somewhat undermine faith in Severino’s mid-range projection in our model. Between the manager’s quick hook, the starter’s limited output so far this year, and the recent return from injury, it is easy to insert an artificial ceiling on Severino, but his MLB DFS price is extremely appealing at just $7,100 on both sites. At that price, there is potential enough in getting to shares of the Yankees righty, with realistic expectations for a solid handful of fantasy points from strikeouts and a few clean innings, with upside for more. The Mets lineup is not great without Alonso. The team has Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Alvarez, Jeff McNeil, and Francisco Lindor as a sturdy top-half, but they lack their true masher and fall off quickly in the bottom part of the lineup. Nimmo is a terrific leadoff hitter and correlated scoring play, but he has a .133 ISO and only five home runs in an individual scoring sense. Alvarez is a dynamite young catcher for $3,800/$2,900, he has a dozen home runs this season and has been the best thing happening in Queens all year. McNeil has three home runs and a 104 WRC+, he is another correlated scoring play with limited individual potential. Lindor is a star shortstop who has 12 home runs and a .204 ISO but is struggling with just a .216/.291/.420 triple-slash. Starling Marte is up to .258/.316/.333 with 18 stolen bases, his hit tool has come around somewhat and he will run if he is on base. Brett Baty is a premium rookie who has four home runs but is 10% below the average for run creation so far, we could also see Mark Vientos in the lineup, he is another premium rookie with power and he has upside for playing time in Alonso’s absence. Tommy Pham, Luis Guillorme, and Mark Canha round out the lineup, Pham and Canha are inconsistent veteran contributors, and Guillorme is a defensively-oriented infielder.
Play: Max Scherzer, Luis Severino, minor shares of bats on either side as lower mid-range options
Update Notes:
Milwaukee Brewers (+106/3.69) @ Minnesota Twins (-115/3.89)
An interesting pitching matchup in Minnesota is confounding our model somewhat, with the Brewers drawing a fair amount of power upside against quality righty Pablo Lopez. Over 13 starts and 78.1 innings, Lopez has been mostly good for the Twins after a very hot start. The righty has a 4.25 ERA and 3.63 xFIP with a 1.14 WHIP and a very good 28.6% strikeout rate on the back of a 14.4% swinging-strike rate and 29.5% CSW%. The strikeouts and strike-throwing marks are all well up year over year, Lopez has taken a step forward in his first season in Minnesota, but he has not been flawless. The righty has allowed an 8.4% barrel rate and 3.42% home run rate for the year, despite limiting hard hits to 37.9% and exit velocity to 87.4 mph. The home runs have come in bunches in a few bad outings, Lopez is not lousy for power but when he makes mistakes they tend to be loud and the Brewers have just enough potential to capitalize. This looks like a good both-sided situation where Lopez is in play in some lineups and the Brewers are a value option at the plate in others, but their low implied team total in Vegas warns us against getting carried away with the play. The top of the Milwaukee lineup is drawing the home run hitting upside, this could easily be a situation in which Lopez allows a long ball and then locks down the lineup over six or seven innings of quality pitching, but there are low-end stacks in play with the first few hitters at least. Christian Yelich has eight home runs and a 54.1% hard-hit rate with his barrels up to 9.4%, which should push additional power if he maintains that level of premium contact. Willy Adames has 10 home runs and a .179 ISO with a 13.4% barrel rate in 237 plate appearances, he is cheap at $4,300/$2,900 after missing time. Rowdy Tellez leads Milwaukee with 12 home runs. The lefty slugger has a .211 ISO but is sitting at just a 9.7% barrel rate and 38.9% hard hits and is also two percent below the average for run creation, which is where this lineup runs into problems when they are not hitting the ball over the fence. William Contreras has eight home runs with a .179 ISO in 211 plate appearances as a high-quality catcher who is rarely expensive or popular. The backstop has an 11.3% barrel rate and 48.2% hard-hit rate so far this season and makes for a sneaky-good play in the heart of a stack of Brewers. Owen Miller has been good this season, he has four home runs and nine stolen bases in 179 plate appearances, Jon Singleton has never really been good at the Major League level, he has zero home runs in his 24 opportunities this year but has stacked them up over a long career in the minors. Singleton costs $2,000/$2,200 and is a value play with left-handed power upside if he is in the lineup. Brian Anderson and Luis Urias have an upside for righty power late in the lineup at low prices, and Joey Wiemer can hit one out or steal a base from time to time as well. The Brewers are an interesting option tonight, Vegas does not like them but they come very cheap for MLB DFS purposes, there are several multi-position options in the lineup, and they are flashing a bit of potential against a good pitcher.
And we thought the Pablo Lopez situation was a conundrum. The Brewers will have Corbin Burnes on the mound tonight. The righty has pitched to a 3.36 ERA and 4.15 xFIP over 77.2 innings in 13 starts but his strikeout rate is way down at just 23.7% after working between 30.5% and 35.6% the last two years. Burnes is priced down somewhat at $9,900/$10,200 and he projects very well against the high-strikeout Twins and there are signs of life in the strikeout column for the righty over his last few starts. In his last outing, Burnes struck out nine Orioles hitters while allowing only two hits in a throwback eight-inning outing. The start prior to that was not as clean, but he threw six innings of three-run ball with seven strikeouts and was dinged by four walks. Burnes has plenty of upside and the Twins are not in top form with Byron Buxton still out of the lineup. The projected batting order has a collective 29.5% strikeout rate for the season, making Burnes one of our top pitching options on the day. The lineup for Minnesota is uninspiring, but the team has playable parts for those looking to target Burnes. Edouard Julien is a highly regarded prospect who has delivered a 127 WRC+ over 81 plate appearances but also has a 34.6% strikeout rate in the small sample. Alex Kirilloff has three home runs and a 148 WRC+ over 121 opportunities and his 23.1% strikeout rate is actually one of the best marks on this team, while still being quite bad. Carlos Correa has eight home runs but the shorstop is slashing .217/.304/.406 in a season-long slump. Trevor Larnach and Max Kepler offer lefty power in the middle of the lineup for $2,900/$2,900 and $3,200/$2,700. Kepler is the preferred option on a longer track record. Royce Lewis is affordable in the infield, the has a pair of home runs in his 41 plate appearances and has been productive since his callup. Joey Gallo is back in the lineup after a hamstring injury had him on the injured list for 10 days. Gallo has 11 home runs in 165 plate appearances and is always a threat despite his .188 average, his .321/.478 final two-thirds of the triple-slash could be stronger but Gallo hits the ball very hard when he connects, he has an 18.4% barrel rate and 59.2% hard-hit for the season. Christian Vazquez and Michael A. Taylor close out the lineup, Taylor has nine home runs in 182 plate appearances that have mostly gone unowned for MLB DFS purposes, he is an option at a very cheap price in Twins stacks.
Play: Corbin Burnes aggressively, Pablo Lopez, Brewers bats/stacks as a mid-range option with power upside, Twins bats only in small doses
Update Notes:
San Francisco Giants (+101/4.49) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-109/4.61)
The Giants and Cardinals are both pulling mid-range implied totals on the board in Vegas with quality pitchers on the mound on both sides. Jack Flaherty will take the start for St. Louis, the righty has been a quality roller coaster this season, but his 4.15 ERA and 4.49 xFIP have fallen somewhat into place alongside his 23.8% strikeout rate over 69.1 innings and 13 starts. Flaherty is walking too many overall at 13.2% but he has been good at clipping home run power and exit velocity so far with just a 34.1% hard-hit rate and 86.8 mph exit velocity amounting to a 1.98% home run rate. Flaherty costs just $8,000/$8,300 against a team with a 25.7% strikeout rate across the projected lineup, he has upside as a value pitcher on both sites tonight and he projects in the top-third of our pitching board. The Giants are a playable option against Flaherty as well, the team has enough pop to get to any starter and they project as the 10th-best option for raw points on our board while making a good value option on FanDuel but less so on DraftKings. Overall, the Giants are not a priority on a huge slate. LaMonte Wade Jr. gets on base at a .413 clip and creates runs 45% better than average but costs just $4,700/$3,000 in the leadoff role, he is a very good option when rostering stacks of Giants. Thairo Estrada has power and speed with nine home runs and 14 stolen bases this season as the most expensive hitter on this team. Joc Pederson has plenty of left-handed power, he has seven home runs in 123 plate appearances with a .262 ISO so far this year. JD Davis and Michael Confroto join Mike Yastrzemski and Mitch Haniger in a dynamite righty-lefty-lefty-righty power group that has been hitting home runs at a slightly slower pace than expected overall. Davis has been very good this year, he has nine home runs and a 132 WRC+, Conforto leads the team with 12 and has an 8.12 in our home run model while Yastrzemski has six on the season and a 6.98 in the model. Haniger has hit four home runs in his 158 opportunities this year but he is a major power hitter when he is going right. Blake Sabol is a cheap and capable lefty catcher if stacking Giants, and Brandon Crawford is a lefty with moderate power to round out the lineup.
The Cardinals will be facing right-handed veteran Alex Cobb who has pitched to a 3.01 ERA and 3.25 xFIP over 13 starts and 74.2 innings this year. Cobb is very effective at limiting home runs by cutting the life out of a team’s average launch angle. So far this season he has allowed just a 1.88% home run rate on a 0.3-degree average launch angle. Last season it was 1.43% home runs on a 1.8-degree angle over 149.2 innings and 28 starts and in 2021 he gave up just a 1.27% home run rate on a three-degree angle in 93.1 innings. Cobb’s ability to limit power is a sustained trait, he also strikes out 22.3% while limiting walks to just six percent this season. For $8,500/$9,600 there is some upside in rostering Cobb, though the Cardinals are not a top-end option for chasing strikeouts. The St. Louis stack does not look like the best option for MLB DFS scoring tonight. While the 4.61-run implied total in Vegas suggests some opportunity for run creation, the power potential is limited by Cobb’s ability to keep the ball in the yard. Of course, St. Louis lands in our lineups a bit too frequently given their 1-9 quality, for better or worse this season given their output. Brendan Donovan is a capable lefty leadoff man who can hit a home run or steal a base, he has a 106 WRC+ at the top of the lineup. Paul Goldschmidt has 11 home runs and has created runs 41% better than average in just another outstanding season on his road to Cooperstown. Nolan Gorman has 15 home runs in a nice breakout season. Nolan Arenado has 13 homers and a .208 ISO with a 122 WRC+ that has been nice to see after his terrible early part of the year. Willson Contreras is a player in need of a turnaround at just .201/.293/.352 for the year. Dylan Carlson, Jordan Walker, Paul DeJong, and Tommy Edman are all playable options late in the lineup when rostering Cardinals, but the team is a low priority for us on this slate.
Play: Jack Flaherty, Alex Cobb, only minor shares of the bats on either side
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Angels (+110/4.63) @ Texas Rangers (-130/5.09)
Despite promoting top pitching prospect Owen White, the Rangers have confirmed that Cody Bradford will take a beating make this start tonight. Bradford is a limited lefty who has a 7.20 ERA and 5.10 xFIP in his two outings this year. Bradford has made 10 starts in AAA pitching to a sparkling 1.82 ERA and ridiculously bad 5.79 xFIP with a 5.87 xERA. Bradford’s strikeout rate in AAA sits at just 21.8% this season, though he did post a 24.7% in 118.2 AA innings in 2022. Overall, this looks like an overmatched lefty starter against a heavily right-handed power-hitting squad. Angels analysis tends to center around how best to phrase the hyper-obvious playing Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout situation. The two stars had big nights in a high-scoring game yesterday and could come roaring right back. Ohtani seized the American League home run lead with his 19th and 20th of the season last night, Trout has 14 homers of his own and has created runs 29% better than average despite a dip in his triple-slash. Trout and Ohtani are always worth their salary, they can be paired with Taylor Ward, who has been up-and-down this season and sits at a 94 WRC+; Anthony Rendon who is a good correlated scoring piece with the ability to hit for average and get on base and, we suspect, some power still lingering in his bat; Brandon Drury who costs just $4,300/$2,900 with eligibility at first and second base and 10 home runs with a .221 ISO in the books; and Hunter Renfroe who has slumped somewhat in recent weeks but still has massive power in this matchup and 11 home runs in 260 chances this year. Gio Urshela, Chad Wallach, and Zach Neto are mix-in options late in the lineup.
The Rangers are one of baseball’s highest-scoring teams and they are loaded with MLB DFS quality from top to bottom. The matchup against Jaime Barria is not a daunting one, he is a league-average pitcher at his best and there is targetable premium contact in his past performances. Barria has pitched in a hybrid role this season, he has made three starts and thrown 39 total innings, both of his two most recent outings were five-inning starts of middling quality. Barria costs just $7,300/$5,800, but the matchup is a terrible one and the huge slate does not demand his inclusion in a pitching pool. The Rangers are carrying a 5.09-run implied team total as one of the top options on the board. Marcus Semien is a pricey item at $5,400/$4,100, properly setting the expectations for the expensive team. Semien is one of baseball’s best second basemen for MLB DFS purposes, he has excellent power and speed and combines well with Corey Seager atop the lineup. Seager is a star with seven home runs in 154 plate appearances and is justifiably the most expensive player on this team on the FanDuel slate at $4,400, he sits $100 behind Semien on DraftKings. Nathaniel Lowe is a good offset for the prices of his teammates, he is a bargain at $4,000/$3,300. Lowe has power and a quality hit tool and has created runs 14% better than average despite not delivering on either of those first two promises regularly. Adolis Garcia has 15 home runs and six stolen bases with a .235 ISO and 126 WRC+ in 274 plate appearances, he and Josh Jung have been an excellent catalyst for runs in the heart of the lineup. Jung has 13 home runs and a .219 ISO this year and costs just $4,600/$3,400. Jonah Heim is a good option at catcher for $4,100/$3,300, he has seven home runs in 225 plate appearances. Mitch Garver would be an equivalent option for power at the position. Robbie Grossman, Travis Jankowski, and Leody Taveras land at the bottom of the projected lineup, Ezequeil Duran is a better play than any of them but they are all options in mix-in form.
Play: Rangers bats/stacks, Angels bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Pittsburgh Pirates (+116/4.32) @ Chicago Cubs (-126/4.79)
A matchup against the Pirates is giving a little bit of price-based value to Cubs righty Jameson Taillon, but it is difficult to have much faith with the pitcher sitting at a 7.02 ERA and 4.76 xFIP on the season. Taillon has not been very good this year, his strikeout rate is 20.9% and he has allowed far too much premium contact with an 11.9% barrel rate and 3.66% home run rate. At price, a few darts are OK on DraftKings as a low-end low-expectation SP2 in 150 lineups, but he is not a very likely play. The Pirates lineup includes a few playable names up top but they look like just a middling option tonight. Andrew McCutchen is having a nice year with a 122 WRC+ that is identical to more expensive Bryan Reynolds, the team’s best player. Reynolds costs $5,100/$3,500, he has seven home runs and a .194 ISO but he has been stuck at that power output for weeks. Connor Joe has six homers while slashing .251/.343/.464 with a 120 WRC+ in 204 plate appearances. Carlos Santana has not been good this year he has four home runs and an 89 WRC+ for the season. Jack Suwinski has major power, he has a 9.98 to lead the team in our home run model and has hit 13 on the season with a 17.4% barrel rate and 46.8% hard-hit rate. If we had to roster a hitter from this team as a one-off play tonight, it would be Suwinski. Ke’Bryan Hayes is affordable, he has four home runs and seven stolen bases and a 48.7% hard-hit rate that demands he do more with it. Ji-Hwan Bae, Tucupita Marcano, and Austin Hedeges round out the projected lineup as mix-in plays. Bae has 19 stolen bases and an 89 WRC+, and Marcano has three homers and four steals in 135 plate appearances.
The Cubs draw Luis Ortiz, a rookie who has made five starts and has racked up just a 12.5% strikeout rate with a 4.23 ERA and 5.57 xFIP that should lead one to the notion of rostering Cubs bats in this spot. Chicago has a 4.79-run implied total with Ortiz as our lowest-projected starter. The Chicago lineup has been up and down for production on the whole, but they have some outstanding options who should get on base and chase run creation and power upside with ease in this matchup. Mike Tauchman is an oddball in the leadoff role as projected, though he has gotten on base at a .389 clip over his 73 plate appearances this year. Nico Hoerner slots in second with four home runs and 14 stolen bases for $5,000/$3,300 at second base. Seiya Suzuki has six home runs and a 124 WRC+ with a price tag of just $3,900/$2,900 in the outfield. Suzuki gets on base at a .367 clip and has a 48% hard-hit rate, with all of the available contact he could be in for a big day at a great price. Ian Happ slots into the cleanup role at the same prices as Suzuki, making them a good value tandem in this lineup. Happ has a 116 WRC+ and gets on base at a .385 clip. Dansby Swanson may find more success in this role in the lineup, his power should be more in play here and he could be a good option to drive in the hitters who get on base so regularly ahead of him. The shortstop costs $5,100/$2,900, the trio of $2,900 hitters make a strong option on the blue site. Christopher Morel has 10 home runs in 98 plate appearances since his return, with a bit of a break between numbers nine and ten. Matt Mervis has left-handed power potential, he has just three home runs in 93 opportunities and is below the Mendoza line for the season. Patrick Wisdom has 14 home runs and also sits below the Mendoza line at .198/.288/.473 but we simply do not care about batting average and he hits the ball extremely hard with regularity. Tucker Barnhart rounds out the lineup as a playable catcher.
Play: Cubs bats/stacks, Pirates bats in smaller doses, maybe a Jameson Taillon value share or two
Update Notes:
Cincinnati Reds (-103/4.79) @ Kansas City Royals (-105/4.81)
The exciting young Reds are facing veteran punching bag Jordan Lyles who has a 6.84 ERA and 5.48 xFIP with a 17.4% strikeout rate this season. Lyles is capable of posting innings and little else, if he manages to not allow runs, an infrequent feat, he can find a quality start at times, but he is a very low-end unlikely option even at $5,500/$6,500. The Reds are carrying a 4.79-run implied team total and, in a matchup against limited young lefty Brandon Williamson, the Royals sit at 4.81 and look like a good value play as well. Cincinnati seems more likely to be popular, they are facing Lyles and have more exciting names in their lineup with Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain getting lots of rookie attention. The Royals may go underappreciated, though their pricing should push shares in lineup builders in this spot. Williamson has made five starts and thrown just 26.2 innings with a 5.40 ERA and 5.65 xFIP while striking out just 17.8% and walking 11%. He has allowed 91.6 mph of exit velocity on average and has a 48.2% hard-hit rate with a 13.3% barrel rate and 5.08% home run rate in the tiny sample. This is not a game in which we will be rostering pitchers.
The Reds lineup opens with TJ Friedl, who will hope to get on base and provide correlated scoring with McLain, Jonathan India, and De La Cruz in the team’s top four. Friedl has three home runs and six stolen bases, he went 8/7 in 258 plate appearances last year and he lands at cheap prices on both sites. McLain costs $4,500/$3,800, DraftKings has not caught up to his talent at shortstop just yet. India is a good second baseman, he has seven home runs and 12 stolen bases for $4,800/$3,600 and hits ahead of De La Cruz who has a home run and four stolen bases in his first 32 plate appearances while also striking out at a 37.5% clip. Spencer Steer is a good fifth man in a Reds stack, he has eight quiet home runs and rarely draws significant popularity. Steer has a 119 WRC+ in a productive 272 plate appearances. Tyler Stephenson, Will Benson, Kevin Newman, and Stuart Fairchild round out the projected Reds lineup as mix-and-match players. Stephenson is a viable catcher option and Fairchild has a bit of pop and speed. The Royals lineup is drawing several strong power projections in our home run model tonight. Nick Pratto leads off with a 9.51 in the model, he has four home runs in 165 plate appearances and has created runs 22% better than average. Sal Perez leads the team with a 15.07 in the home run model, he has hit 14 already this season and has a .237 ISO with a 48.4% hard-hit rate. MJ Melendez has five home runs on the season and hits everything hard, when he isn’t swinging and missing. Bobby Witt Jr. has blazing speed and good power, he has 10 home runs and 21 steals and has been better for MLB DFS than for real run creation. Maikel Garcia has just an 86 WRC+ over 130 plate appearances and starts the downturn in this lineup. Edward Olivares is a better option, he has moderate power and good speed with five home runs and six stolen bases this year and he comes cheap at $2,600/$2,800 due to inconsistent production. Dairon Blanco is a non-prospect quad-A player with speed, Matt Duffy and Drew Waters round out the lineup in low-end form.
Play: Reds bats/stacks, Royals bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Washington Nationals (+229/3.29) @ Houston Astros (-256/5.33)
Two very different pitchers are on the mound for the game in Houston tonight. The Nationals are facing righty Hunter Brown who is pulling one of our top projections on the slate for $10,500/$10,000. Brown is probably too cheap given his talent and the excellent matchup tonight. The righty has a 28.1% strikeout rate and a 3.69 ERA with a 3.09 xFIP over 68.1 innings in 12 starts in his first full season in the Show. Brown was a premium prospect to start the year and he has fully delivered with excellent numbers, he is good at limiting launch angle and capping home run upside so far in his career and has the Nationals’ lousy lineup as a non-entity for anything other than contrarian shares tonight. Lane Thomas leads off with a 113 WRC+ as the best player in Washington’s projected lineup. Luis Garcia has an 88 WRC+ in 243 plate appearances and is just a mix-in option on most slates. Joey Meneses is slashing .307/.351/.398 with a 106 WRC+ in 268 tries this year but has lacked the power that he flashed in hitting 13 home runs in 240 opportunities last season. Jeimer Candelario has eight home runs this year, all of them have come against right-handed pitching. Corey Dickerson is a left-handed veteran outfielder who has two home runs in 59 tries this year at cheap salaries. Keibert Ruiz is an interesting young catcher with growing to do at the plate. Dominic Smith, CJ Abrams, and Alex Call are low-end options with WRC+ marks of 85, 74, and 72 in samples that all exceed 215 plate appearances. This is a lousy baseball team.
The Astros are facing one of the more targetable pitchers on the slate in lefty Patrick Corbin, who has allowed a 3.35% home run rate on 47.1% hard hits and a 91.6 mph average exit velocity this season. Corbin has not been as entirely targetable for power as in recent seasons, but his strikeout rate has dipped from 18% last year to just 14% this year and he still allows a high volume of premium contact. Even without star slugger Yordan Alvarez, the Astros are a fairly good option with a 5.33-run implied team total tonight. Houston’s lineup is projected to open with Mauricio Dubon, who is more of a mix-in for correlation purposes given his 102 WRC+ for the season. Jose Altuve starts the list of appealing players, the star second baseman costs just $4,600/$3,700 and has been 22% better than average for run creation in a small sample of 69 plate appearances since his return. Alex Bregman has right-handed power with a 9.14 in our home run model and nine in the books this season. Kyle Tucker does not lose much against lefties historically, he leads the team with an 11.13 in our home run model tonight. Jose Abreu has three homers on the season and sits at 5.22 in our model, one of the higher marks for home run upside the former slugger has shown this season. Chas McCormick has a .200 ISO and five home runs in his 125 plate appearances, he has good upside as a sneaky later-lineup play from the sixth spot. Jeremy Pena, Corey Julks, and Martin Maldonado are all options from the bottom of the lineup in small doses as mix-ins who can deliver big games from time to time.
Play: Hunter Brown aggressively, Astros bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Tampa Bay Rays (-212/5.12) @ Oakland Athletics (+192/3.49)
The Rays will have the opportunity to extend their run of outrageous fantasy output in a matchup against Hogan Harris tonight. The lefty has made one start and thrown 15.1 innings, pitching twice in bulk relief and going five innings both times. Harris has a 6.46 ERA and 5.42 xFIP with an 18.8% strikeout rate and a limited ability to throw strikes. The lefty is not a highly regarded prospect and should not be utilized for DFS purposes. The Rays bats are the top-ranked option on both sites for run creation potential, the team has a 5.12-run implied total that is low due to… the ballpark? We’re not entirely sure, that run total should probably be higher in this matchup. Yandy Diaz has 12 home runs and a 169 WRC+ for $5,000/$3,800 off the top of the Rays lineup. Diaz has a 56.1% hard-hit rate and has only struck out 15.9% of the time this season, he has been outrageous all year. Wander Franco is a star shortstop for $5,900/$3,900, he has eight home runs and has created runs 37% better than average over 280 plate appearances. Harold Ramirez has hit nine unexpected home runs and has a .210 ISO this year. Ramirez has always hit the ball fairly hard but he has already exceeded his home run totals from each of the last two seasons in less than half the plate appearances. Randy Arozarena costs $5,700/$3,900, he has 12 home runs and nine stolen bases and gets on base at a .406 clip. Arozarena is a star in the outfield, he has a 16.6% barrel rate and 50.3% hard-hit rate and is easily one of the best players in baseball overall. Isaac Paredes has 11 home runs in 223 plate appearances, starting a ridiculous run of options in the projected lineup. Jose Siri has 12 home runs in 147 opportunities this year, Christian Bethancourt has seven in 155 tries, and Manuel Margot brings up the bottom with just two homers and a 91 WRC+. Taylor Walls has flexible positioning for a cheap price and he has been mostly playing over his head all season. Walls has seven home runs and 15 stolen bases with a 109 WRC+ though his triple-slash has dipped to just .212/.319/.406.
The low-end Athletics are facing a combination of Jalen Beeks as an opener and Yonny Chirinos as the bulk reliever. Neither pitcher seems like much of an option for MLB DFS purposes, but they are combining to keep the Oakland lineup at just a 3.49-run implied total, which may not be as impressive a feat as it sounds given the lousy output all year in Oakland. The Athletics lineup opens with Esteury Ruiz who strikes out at just a 16.8% rate in his rookie year but has walked only 3.8% of the time. If Ruiz could walk a bit more and push his .318 on-base percentage his blazing speed would play even better than the 31 stolen bases he has booked this year. Ryan Noda and Seth Brown are talented left-handed hitters that will draw Beeks in their first plate appearances if they hit here. Both Noda and Brown have power, Noda has gotten on base at a .407 clip and has a 149 WRC+ over 231 plate appearances, Brown has missed most of the year but comes cheap for the lack of production. Ramon Laureano, Jace Peterson, Jonah Bride, JJ Bleday, Shea Langeliers, and Kevin Smith round out the projected lineup in low-end form. Laureano has had seasons of double-digit home runs and stolen bases, he has five and seven so far this season. Peterson is a lefty who has five home runs and eight stolen bases with a 95 WRC+. Bride has made 38 plate appearances this year but did very little to inspire confidence over 187 last year. Bleday has three home runs and a .165 ISO in 105 plate appearances, Langeliers is a viable catcher with eight mostly low-owned home runs this year, and Smith is not a great option despite his four surprising home runs in 99 plate appearances.
Play: Rays bats aggressively
Update Notes:
Miami Marlins (+124/3.29) @ Seattle Mariners (-134/3.78)
Righty George Kirby has a good chance of posting a slate-leading score on the mound against the Marlins tonight. Kirby does a lot of what young teammate Bryce Miller does on the mound, only better and with more experience at the MLB level. The righty has a 3.50 ERA and 3.74 xFIP in 74.2 innings and 12 starts this season, he has struck out 20.3% but has kept walks to an outrageous two percent and has a 1.11 WHIP while limiting power to 6.5% barrels and 2.66% home runs. Kirby is a strong option on this slate at $9,300/$10,800 in his pitcher-friendly home park, the Marlins are a fairly non-threatening offense that can lend him a bit of strikeout upside and he has a chance to chase both a win and a quality start given his typical output. Luis Arraez will have something to say to that, though he has plummeted to .391 in the batting average column over the past few days. Arraez will have to scrape and claw his way to .400 with his base-hit-oriented approach, he has a terrific .440 on-base percentage, never strikes out, and hits ahead of Jorge Soler with a 154 WRC+, Arraez is an outstanding option on most slates. Soler has 19 home runs and a .299 ISO on the season and is relatively cheap at $5,000/$3,300. Bryan De La Cruz costs $4,100/$2,900, he has upside in the heart of the lineup with eight home runs and a good triple-slash in 254 plate appearances. Jesus Sanchez has a 13% barrel rate with six home runs in his 125 chances this year. The young outfielder remains cheap after returning from an injury, he would be a smart play if one is stacking low-end Marlins shares. Garrett Cooper has moderate power on the right side but should push strikeouts in Kirby’s direction instead. Joey Wendle is better than Jean Segura, who is worse than Jacob Stallings and Jonathan Davis at the bottom of the lineup.
The Mariners have a good pitcher of their own to contend with, though young starter Edward Cabrera is a different type of pitcher on the mound. The righty has a terrific 29.4% strikeout rate but his 14% walk rate is problematic at best. Cabrera is in a premium spot for strikeout upside, the Mariners’ projected lineup has a 26% strikeout rate for the season despite the quality names in their typical batting order. The pitcher has a 4.29 ERA and 3.87 xFIP this season, he has induced a 13.2% swinging-strike rate with a 29% CSW% and has been fairly good at check launch angle (7.6 degrees) and home runs (2.57%) in his first full season. Cabrera is an option at $9,600 on DraftKings, though the price is an awkward fit with some of the others in that range, he is a strong buy at $8,800 on FanDuel. Risk tolerance is involved in the play, on the back of free passes alone one can see how Cabrera could easily go bust, but the strikeout potential at the cheap price is extremely appealing. The Mariners can be rostered as a hedge position, but Vegas is seeing this one the same way we are, with Seattle carrying just a 3.78-run implied total in Sin City. JP Crawford is a capable leadoff hitter who can get on base but he does not offer a ton of individual scoring potential. Julio Rodriguez strikes out at a 27.8% clip but has provided a dozen home runs and a matching stolen base total. Rodriguez’ triple-slash and run-creation marks are way down from last year, but the counting stats are on pace with what he did as a rookie. Ty France is a good player at a fair price hitting third in this lineup, he is a productive correlated scoring play with individual potential, he has six home runs and a 127 WRC+ over 279 plate appearances and did manage 20 home runs in a bigger year for power last season. Jarred Kelenic has scuffled through most of May and early June after a high-end start, he has 11 home runs and a 129 WRC+ with a .229 ISO overall and costs just $4,400/$3,100 in the matchup. Kelenic strikes out at a 32.5% clip however, a number that matches the rate at which Teoscar Hernandez has struck out behind him in the lineup this year. Hernandez has also matched his teammate’s home run output with 11 long balls of his own, he costs just $3,300/$2,900. Cal Raleigh strikes out at a 26.3% clip and has eight home runs, Eugenio Suarez is at 28.8% and seven, and Kolten Wong has just been bad all year. Mike Ford slots in between Suarez and Wong, he has only made 20 plate appearances this year and has two home runs.
Play: George Kirby, Edward Cabrera particularly as a FanDuel value with risk and a good ceiling, Mariners stacks in small doses
Update Notes:
Cleveland Guardians (+148/3.35) @ San Diego Padres (-162/4.25)
Right-handed veteran Joe Musgrove is a talented second-or-third-tier starter who has been good over the past few years. Musgrove posted a 24.9% strikeout rate with a 3.47 xFIP and 2.93 ERA over 181 innings and 30 starts last year, a bit of a dip from the 27.1% strikeout rate he had in 181.1 innings the year before. This season, Musgrove is down slightly again at just 23.3% strikeouts with a lower swinging-strike rate and a three-point dip in his CSW% overall. The righty has not been bad, he has a 4.35 ERA and 4.09 xFIP, but he has not been quite as good as he is “supposed” to be, and the lack of strikeouts has not helped him cover for it. Overall, Musgrove still looks like a good option with a mid-range projection in our pitching model today against the lousy Guardians lineup. For $7,800/$8,500 he is easily in play as a value option, his talent exceeds what one would typically expect at those prices, and Musgrove makes for a good buy on both sites tonight. The Guardians lineup is a weak option for MLB DFS, the team’s output has been lousy all season and they are carrying just a 3.35-run implied total into this matchup with a good pitcher. Steven Kwan is cheap at $3,800/$3,000 but he has been four percent worse than average for run creation with limited counting stats, he has 11 stolen bases on the year and not much else. Amed Rosario has a home run and eight stolen bases with a 70 WRC+, Jose Ramirez came to life last week and now has 10 home runs and a .216 ISO with a 121 WRC+ as easily the team’s best player, and Josh Naylor has moderate power upside with a 6.99 in our home run model and eight in the books in 224 plate appearances. Josh Bell and Andres Gimenez were expected to be far better than a 99 and 86 WRC+ for the season. They have combined for fewer home runs than the underperforming Ramirez has hit with only nine, and they are simply not doing much at the plate. Will Brennan, Mike Zunino, and Myles Straw do even less.
The Padres’ top-end is almost always in play. They are facing rookie Tanner Bibee who has been good over 44.1 innings in the first eight starts of his career. Bibee has a 23.2% strikeout rate and just a 6.6% walk rate while pitching to a 3.05 ERA and 4.43 xFIP. The expected FIP value is probably the more honest number, but Bibee has been an effective Major League starter so far, he has capped home runs at just 1.66% though there has been some premium contact in his 38.7% hard-hit rate and 7.3% barrel rate. Bibee costs $8,300/$9,100 and projects fairly well in our pitching model, he seems likely to be dramatically low-owned tonight and could be a good mix-in dart throw with low expectations in small doses. The Padres lineup should be rostered as a hedge against that position in other lineups, but the team is carrying just a 4.25-run implied total which supports the idea of Bibee’s upside. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the entire slate with a 19.09 in our home run model, he is the first of four Padres hitters atop the lineup who all crack the magic number for home run potential tonight. Tatis has 12 home runs and a .246 ISO with a 131 WRC+ to lead the team despite landing about 80 plate appearances shy of those who have played every day. Juan Soto costs $5,600/$3,700 and has 10 home runs and a 142 WRC+ over 283 plate appearances. Manny Machado has been in an extended slump, he has six home runs but a .140 ISO and 87 WRC+ that have him at a cheap $4,900/$2,800 price tag. Gary Sanchez has mashed five home runs in 53 plate appearances with a robust 12.1% barrel rate and 51.5% hard-hit rate so far. Xander Bogaerts is an underperforming star who has also been cut to cheap $4,900/$3,000 pricing. Jake Cronenworth has a 98 WRC+ on the season, Rougned Odor sits at 101 in fewer plate appearances, and Matt Carpenter lands at 89 with four home runs. Trent Grisham closes out the lineup in fairly weak form when it comes to his triple-slash but he does have six home runs. The quality for San Diego is in their top-five, the bottom end of the lineup supports upside for Bibee.
Play: Joe Musgrove, Tanner Bibee, Padres stacks as a mid-range option primarily in the top end of their lineup
Update Notes:
Philadelphia Phillies (-124/4.77) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+115/4.33)
The Phillies have a 4.77-run implied total against Zach Davies which seems a bit low for this team against that pitcher. Davies has a 4.68 ERA and 4.42 xFIP this season while pitching to a 20.4% strikeout rate with a 9.4% walk rate over 25 innings in five starts. The small sample could be labeled unfair, but it is actually being somewhat kind to Davies, who worked at a 17.9% strikeout rate with a 4.58 xFIP over 134.1 innings in 27 low-end starts last year. Davies is a non-entity on the mound at $6,200/$7,200. Kyle Schwarber seems likely to be a popular play once again tonight, he has a 13.96 in our home run model and has hit 17 so far this season with a .254 ISO and 15.8% barrel rate. Nick Castellanos has eight home runs and has been involved in Philadelphia’s scoring with regularity, he leads the team with a 132 WRC+ in 279 plate appearances. Bryce Haper and Trea Turner are oozing star power, even with Turner having a lousy season so far, the shortstop is cheap for his talent at $5,500/$3,000. Harper costs $5,800/$3,500, the FanDuel price is notably low and comes with outfield and first base eligibility. JT Realmuto hit for the cycle last night in a monster performance, the catcher costs $4,600/$2,800 and has a .204 ISO and 103 WRC+ after the big day. Bryson Stott is slashing .294/.337/.404 with a 102 WRC+, Alec Bohm has a 94 WRC+ and six home runs in 224 plate appearances, Brandon Marsh has lefty power with a .172 ISO and five home runs in 218 tries, and Kody Clemens rounds things out in similar fashion with four homers and a .168 ISO from the left side.
The Diamondbacks are carrying a 4.33-run implied total against excellent righty Zack Wheeler who posted a dominant one-hit start against the lousy Tigers his last time on the mound. Wheeler is unlikely to repeat that exact performance, Arizona is much better than Detroit’s lineup, but the righty has a chance to put up another very strong MLB DFS score tonight. Wheeler costs $10,100/$10,600 with a 27.2% strikeout rate and 3.60 xFIP under a 3.91 ERA in 13 starts and 76 innings. The righty typically pitches deep into games and has a good chance at both a win and a quality start in this spot. He is very good at limiting home runs and power against with just a 1.56% home run rate on 86.3 mph of average exit velocity this season. Wheeler is a good buy on both sites, he could bend the slate to his will late in the evening. The Diamondbacks are a productive team in a bad spot with a pitcher who does not allow much home run upside, which deprioritizes them in our approach to stacking. A few contrarian shares are fine, but the upside against Wheeler is somewhat limited. Pavin Smith has seven home runs but just a 94 WRC+ in 176 plate appearances, he is slated to lead off in the projected lineup ahead of Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll who have both been very good this season. Marte fills second base ably and has a 122 WRC+ on the year, Carroll is an outfield star who costs $5,500/$4,300, which might be a bit pricey for the matchup despite his terrific 13 home runs and 19 stolen bases. Carroll would still be our one-off choice from this team but a bit of a discount against Wheeler would have been nice. Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have quality power bats in the middle of the lineup. Walker has a dozen home runs and a .218 ISO in 263 opportunities this year, though his premium contact profile sits at just 8.4% barrels and a 41.4% hard-hit rate. The first baseman is cheap at $4,100/$3,300 and can be rostered when going to Diamondbacks in a bad spot, he leads the team with a 5.19 in the bad home run hitting opportunity. Gurriel has been very good his year he has 10 home runs on the season and a 139 WRC+ over 226 plate appearances. Josh Rojas, Gabriel Moreno, Jake McCarthy, and Geraldo Perdomo are a mixed bag of mix-and-match talents who have some power, some speed, and some really low-end performances on the season.
Play: Zach Wheeler, Phillies bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Chicago White Sox (+179/3.57) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-196/5.03)
We reach the final game with about 20 minutes to spare before the 4:15 ET scheduled start time for the show on which we are going to review all of these options again. The final game of the night sees the loaded Dodgers taking on the White Sox, with righty Tony Gonsolin on the mound for the hometown Dodgers. Gonsolin has made eight starts and thrown 40.2 innings with an 18.1% strikeout rate and 2.21 ERA but a 5.26 xFIP. The righty has limited batting average on balls in play and has a 0.98 WHIP despite a 9.6% walk rate this year, his statistical output is misaligned but he projects in the middle of the board and has been a quality pitcher over a longer sample in his career. Gonsolin is on the board at $8,200/$8,100, though the necessity of deploying him on a gigantic slate with 28 options on the mound is debatable. He has an OK matchup against the underperforming White Sox, who will have Tim Anderson and Andrew Benintendi challenge Gonsolin from the top of the lineup. Both players are good at avoiding strikeouts but they have not been playing up to par this season, Anderson sits at a 70 WRC+ in 200 plate appearances, Benintendi is at a 90 in 253. Luis Robert Jr. is a star who has carried this team with 15 home runs and a .260 ISO with a 128 WRC+ he is the one truly threatening hitter in this form of this lineup. Andrew Vaughn has been good at first base with eight homers and a 111 WRC+ but he has not been overly impressive outside of limiting strikeouts to 18.5%, his .185 ISO is fine but not intimidating. Yoan Moncada has three home runs and a 79 WRC+ in a disappointing performance since his return to action 143 plate appearances ago. Jake Burger has 13 home runs in a surprising season that we do not expect to continue through the entire year. Yasmani Grandal, Gavin Sheets, and Elvis Andrus round out the lineup. Grandal and Sheets can provide infrequent power, Andrus is not a good player but he can sometimes go deep or steal a base at low ownership. He has one home run and six steals in 170 opportunities this year and has been 55% worse than average for run creation.
The Dodgers have a 5.03-run implied team total against scuffling veteran Lance Lynn, who has a 6.72 ERA and 4.16 xFIP in his 13 starts and 72.1 innings. Lynn is carrying a 24.3% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate while inducing an 11.7% swinging-strike rate but allowing a 4.86% home run rate on 10.6% barrels and 41.2% hard hits. The bad has outweighed the good with the veteran this season, the low-strikeout Dodgers seem likely to take away the one thing he has done well, and their power and run-creation abilities cannot be ignored in the matchup. Lynn is at best a low-expectation value dart for $7,600/$7,400 but those might be wasted shares in this matchup. Mookie Betts still has three-position eligibility for $4,200 on the FanDuel slate which makes him a target, he costs $6,500 with second base and outfield eligibility in the expensive version of this lineup on DraftKings. Excellent first baseman Freddie Freeman has 13 home runs and is slashing .338/.413/.586 with a .247 ISO while creating runs 67% better than average. Will Smith is an outstanding catcher who does not strike out often and has nine home runs with a .218 ISO on the season. Max Muncy is our overall home run pick for the day, he has a 12.01 in the home run model with 18 long balls on the season. Muncy is another player who is a great example of why we don’t care about batting average in this space, he is a hyper-productive MLB DFS option for just $5,000/$3,700 when he connects. JD Martinez has blasted 16 home runs to chase Muncy and the team’s stars for the team lead, he has a .350 ISO that tops all of the players in the lineup by a fairly wide margin over his 215 plate appearances. Martinez is a good buy at $5,700/$4,000, which we would not have expected to start the season. David Peralta, Miguel Vargas, Jason Heyward, and Miguel Rojas are all mostly playable parts from the bottom of the lineup, though Rojas’ 35 WRC+ is a concern.
Play: Dodgers bats/stacks aggressively where they are affordable, a few Tony Gonsolin shares as a low-end value, same with Lynn and White Sox bats
Update Notes:
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