Tuesday brings a giant 14-game main slate that gets underway at 7:05 ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel with a loaded hitting board and somewhat thin pitching options on both sites. The slate has a few concerning spots for weather through the Midwest and Southeast once again, but most of the situations look like they will remain dry enough to get full games completed as of the mid-morning. The hitting board includes a Coors Field game but also has five other teams carrying implied run totals above 5.0, with the Braves leading the non-Coors group at 6.19 in their ideal matchup against righty Zach Davies. The slate has the shape of one that will be won with bats, with so many teams on board there is a strong chance that two full stacks will be required to win the day, getting to a strong blend of the top options at the plate with pitching as a bit of a secondary concern that is driven by price, popularity, and matchup is the recommended approach to a slate of this nature, this is one that will be won and lost at the plate.
Don’t miss our Suggested Stacks feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
Join us at 4:00 ET for a rundown on today’s slate:
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 7/18/23
Los Angeles Dodgers (+114/4.58) @ Baltimore Orioles (-123/5.02)
The Dodgers are underdogs in Baltimore this evening, with talented righty Tyler Wells taking the ball for the home team. Wells has a 25.4% strikeout rate and 3.18 ERA in 104.2 innings, though his 4.33 xFIP is the more telling mark. Wells has induced an 11.3% swinging-strike rate and has walked merely 5.9% while racking up a sparkling 0.93 WHIP on the season. The righty has allowed a bit too much premium contact, his 5.17% home run rate is out of line with the rest of his numbers, with an 11.5% barrel rate as the culprit. Wells costs $9,400/$9,200, he could post a strong start in this situation but with 28 choices available it becomes something of a thin proposition to decide to target the high-octane low-strikeout Dodgers lineup too aggressively. Los Angeles should have the everyday version of their lineup in place, five of the projected hitters are carrying marks above 10.0 in our home run model with leadoff man Mookie Betts setting the pace at 15.43. Betts has 27 home runs with a 160 WRC+ on the season and offers multi-position eligibility on both sites for a premium. Freddie Freeman was our home run pick for this team, he has a 10.16 in the model which is actually the lowest of the five above the “magic number” but Freeman has undeniable power and is an indefatigable producer of runs with a 156 WRC+ for $5,800/$4,300 at first base. Will Smith is one of the best bats at the catcher position, he has 13 home runs with a .206 ISO, a 140 WRC+, 14.1% strikeouts, and 14.8% walks. Smith is a star who is probably the league’s best day-to-day catcher for $5,300/$3,500. Max Muncy and JD Martinez round out the top five and the group of five above 10.0 in the home run model. Both sluggers strike out aggressively, which can help Wells to some degree, but they are carrying significant probabilities for power and they have 21 and 23 home runs on the season respectively. David Peralta, Jason Heyward, and James Outman are solid left-handed bats with power for inexpensive prices from the bottom of the batting order, they are all playable and can be combined with any collection of hitters from the top five. Miguel Rojas rounds out the lineup in low-end form, he has a .230/.274/.282 triple-slash with a .053 ISO and 54 WRC+ in 226 plate appearances this season.
The favored Orioles check in with a run total above 5.0 in a matchup against rookie hurler Michael Grove, who has a highly targetable 6.89 ERA but a somewhat better 4.45 xFIP in eight starts and 47 innings. Grove has pitched to a 20.6% strikeout rate with a 1.55 WHIP and 7.2% walk rate and he has allowed too much premium contact with 9.4% barrels drawing a straight line to a 4.31% home run rate. Grove made six starts and threw 29.1 innings in 2022, he allowed a 4.51% home run rate in that sample and has been targetable over essentially a half-season sample for his career to date. The Orioles lineup opens with Gunnar Henderson who lands at 11.04 in our home run model. Henderson has mashed 14 missiles over the wall this season, he has a .221 ISO and has created runs 23% better than average but remains affordable with multi-position eligibility in the leadoff role for just $4,700/$3,000 at third base or shortstop on either site. Adley Rutschman has extremely similar numbers to the star catcher on the opposing team, his 15.3% strikeout rate and 14% walk rate are outstanding, he has 13 home runs with a 126 WRC+ and is slashing .276/.376/.434 over 399 plate appearances and checks in a bit cheaper than Smith does on the Dodgers side of the coin. Anthony Santander is a good switch-hitting power bat, he has 17 home runs and a .226 ISO for $4,500/$3,300. Ryan O’Hearn has been good over 162 plate appearances but his price has not increased, making him a reasonable buy despite expectations for a downturn. Austin Hays has been excellent this season, over 324 plate appearances he is slashing .309/.349/.488 while creating runs 30% better than average. Aaron Hicks has been good since joining the Orioles, he remains a staple in the lineup despite the promotion of Colton Cowser, one of the team’s prized prospects in the outfield. Cowser has made 32 plate appearances and is slashing just .130/.375/.130 with a 76 WRC+ and .000 ISO but he is a premium bat who is expected to hit and approach star-level output in the Show. Jordan Westburg is another high-end young player from late in the lineup, he plays second or third base on DraftKings and fills third or shortstop on the blue site for cheap prices. Adam Frazier has a dozen home runs in 308 plate appearances this season, he hit three in 602 last year and five in 639 the year before so the power is surprising, to say the least, but Frazier is still cheap at $3,300/$2,900 and adds another dynamic multi-position option to a good stack.
Play: Orioles bats/stacks, Dodgers bats/stacks, minor shares of Tyler Wells for too high a price on either site
Update Notes:
Cleveland Guardians (-105/4.31) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-103/4.28)
Pirates’ righty Mitch Keller started the season in fantastic form and has declined each month as the season has continued but he does offer significant upside in the right situation and he has produced good games in spots throughout. Overall, Keller has a 26.7% strikeout rate with a 3.31 ERA and 3.57 xFIP over 19 starts and 117 innings in 2023, but his strikeout rate dipped to just 19.8% with a 4.30 xFIP for the month of June and has been at just 21.2% with a 5.21 xFIP so far in July. Keller has talent and excellent stuff and he is in a good matchup against the low-end Guardians, despite Cleveland’s outburst at the plate last night. Keller checks in at essentially a pick’em line in Vegas with the Guardians carrying a 4.31-run implied total, he costs $9,900/$10,900 and is a much better buy on the DraftKings slate. The righty is in play on both sites, his price should not discourage the play on the FanDuel slate, assuming it renders him less popular publicly, it could be viewed as advantageous. Cleveland got a bit of life from some of their key hitters last night, but the club remains fairly low-end. Steven Kwan created runs 24% better than average last season, he is one percent behind the curve over 422 plate appearances so far in 2023. Amed Rosario hit 11 home runs and stole 18 bases last year with a 103 WRC+, he hit his third home run and has nine stolen bases with an 83 WRC+ as of last night. Jose Ramirez has been good but not to the expected superstar level, he has 14 home runs with 10 stolen bases and a 128 WRC+ over 404 chances this season. Josh Naylor has 13 round-trippers on the season, he has created runs 30% better than average to lead the Guardians. Andres Gimenez has eight home runs and 15 stolen bases with a 95 WRC+ for the season but his 4.9% barrel rate and 24.7% hard-hit rate are far from strong. Josh Bell is sitting on just nine home runs after 345 plate appearances this year, his 9.1% barrel rate and 42.6% hard-hit rate are ahead of last year’s numbers but his overall output has been lousy with just a 95 WRC+ and a weak triple-slash. Will Brennan, Myles Straw, and Bo Naylor round out the lineup, Naylor has power as a backup catcher while the other two are lighter-hitting options in the outfield.
Talented lefty Logan Allen has made 12 starts, covering 62.1 innings and posting a 3.47 ERA and 4.14 xFIP since his call-up earlier in the season. Allen has been one of the better rookie hurlers in baseball, he has allowed just a 2.18% home run rate and has struck out 22.9% of opposing hitters but his 1.44 WHIP and 8.7% walk rate could stand improvement. Allen costs just $7,700/$8,500 in a good matchup against the Pirates, one of eight teams with a collective WRC+ below 100 against lefties so far this season. Pittsburgh has a 94 WRC+ that sits 26th in the split, their 23.3% strikeout rate lends upside to Allen while their .150 ISO against southpaws is mostly non-threatening. Allen’s primary challenge in this spot may be the depth to which the team allows him to pitch, he has not worked in the fifth inning at this level since mid-June and has not pitched in the Show since June 28th. Allen made two July starts with AAA Columbus after a demotion, he threw just three innings in each game and the team seems committed to protecting his young arm. The Pirates lineup opens with Connor Joe who has six home runs and three stolen bases with a .242/.333/.417 triple-slash and a 106 WRC+. Joe is better against lefties but he is not a priority outside of stacks of Pirates hitters, which is also the case for Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen. The veteran outfielders follow Joe in the projected lineup at fair prices, they have moderate power and reasonable run creation output but there is only limited appeal in stacking Pirates on this slate. Reynolds has created runs seven percent better than average and McCutchen leads the lineup with a 121 mark for run creation with Jack Suwinski not in the projected lineup with a lefty on the hill. Suwinski is not a lock to sit this one out, if he is in the lineup he should be deployed aggressively alongside the righties atop the lineup, he has been the team’s best hitter all season. Carlos Santana has a bit of power left in his bat on either side of the plate, he has been better for home runs and power as a lefty hitter against righties in his career, but better for run creation as a righty hitter against left-handed pitching with a 125 WRC+ compared to a 112 against right-handed opponents. Rookie Henry Davis is affordable at $2,500/$2,800, he has been productive over 98 plate appearances with a pair of home runs and three stolen bases while creating runs 12% better than average. Jared Triolo slots in sixth at cheap prices ahead of call-ups Endy Rodriguez and Liover Peguero, both of whom have an upside for their minimum-price slots on DraftKings and at $2,400 on FanDuel. Nick Gonzales is a mix-in option if one is building numerous stacks of Pirates. Pittsburgh is a reasonable option for value stacking but they rank just 23rd out of 28 by collective fantasy point projections.
Play: Mitch Keller, Logan Allen
Update Notes:
San Diego Padres (-113/4.65) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+105/4.44)
With apologies to Toronto starter Alek Manoah and what is surely a talented team of trainers and coaches at the team’s Florida pitching complex, the Padres feel like they should be bigger favorites today given what Manoah has been through most of 2023. The righty was a total disaster through the season’s first two months, culminating in an epic meltdown against the Astros in which he was booed off the mound after getting just one out in a home game, allowing the Astros to bat around and rack up six earned runs on seven hits and a walk. Manoah was sent to Florida and by all accounts worked hard on getting in shape and returning to form, he came back to the team on July seventh with a strong start against the lousy Tigers in which he struck out eight over six innings while allowing just one run on five hits, we remain mostly unconvinced but so does the MLB DFS industry’s pricing. Overall, Manoah has made 14 starts and thrown 64 innings, he has an 18.4% strikeout rate with a 5.91 ERA and 5.77 xFIP with a 1.80 WHIP and just a 24.5% CSW%. Manoah has allowed a 42.6% hard-hit rate and 3.61% home runs, he is targetable with Padres bats but he should also be deployed on the mound for just $7,100/$6,600. The righty does not project well in our model and seems unlikely to garner much popularity even at the extreme discount, he is a worthwhile dart throw for value purposes but the more likely scenario is a good game from the Padres’ stars. At $4,200/$2,800 with multi-position eligibility in the infield, Ha-Seong Kim is a strong option when he leads off for San Diego. Kim has 11 home runs and 17 stolen bases and has created runs 16% better than average while getting on base at a .351 clip this season, he is a decent individual producer and a good correlated scoring option. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto are superstar talents in the second and third spots in the lineup, Soto remains a bit inexpensive at $5,400/$3,700 given his tremendous upside and team-leading 147 WRC+ mark. Tatis is full-priced but worthwhile, he has 17 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 340 opportunities and has created runs 36% better than average while striking out just 19.4% of the time. Tatis has a 49.2% hard-hit rate with a 9.8% barrel rate, Soto outpaces him by a wide margin at 12.7% barrels and 57.8% hard hits. Manny Machado‘s season has begun to come around, he has 17 home runs and a .207 ISO with a 111 WRC+ while slashing .256/.311/.463 with just a 17.5% strikeout rate. Xander Bogaerts shares the low strikeout trait, he is at just 18.8% for the season but has slumped in his triple-slash at just .258/.341/.402. Bogaerts is still a valuable contributor and he has a 109 WRC+ on the season, he is discounted greatly at $4,900/$3,000. Jake Cronenworth, Gary Sanchez, Rougned Odor, and Trent Grisham are playable parts to round out the lineup but only Grisham is above-average for run creation at 105 WRC+. Cronenworth and Sanchez each have eight home runs, though Sanchez has hit his in about a third of the plate appearances that Cronenworth needed, Odor is the low man with four long balls on the season.
Toronto’s lineup will be facing talented veteran righty Joe Musgrove, who checks in with a top-five projection in our pitching model on a day with a long list of similar-looking options. Musgrove sits a step below the top four starters on the list and well below the top two options by raw projections, he has a slate-winning ceiling on the right night and is very unlikely to be popular, but he is closer to the 12th-ranked starter than the top spot in our projections. The righty has a 24.2% strikeout rate and a very good 5.2% walk rate with a 3.29 ERA and a 3.75 xFIP this season. Musgrove has induced an 11.8% swinging-strike rate with a 28.7% CSW% and has limited barrels to just 4.9% and hard hits to 30% with 86.7 mph of exit velocity and only 2.45% home runs. At $9,600 on either site, the righty is definitely a playable option from the top part of the pitching pool. Toronto’s lineup opens with George Springer, Bo Bichette, Brandon Belt, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with Matt Chapman hitting fifth to round out a stack that builds itself. All five players are strong options on most slates, Springer has created runs 13% better than average with 13 homers and 13 stolen bases and that just has to be a lucky combination going into the night, Bichette leads the team with 17 home runs, Belt has not hit for as much power as in years past but he is cheap and has been producing runs 27% better than average this season, and Guerrero is 20% better than average for runs with 14 home runs on the season but just a .175 ISO. The primary flaw in the stack is that Belt and Guerrero play the same position on the DraftKings slate, with Belt dropping his outfield eligibility. Chapman is a good replacement at third base for $4,900/$3,000, he has a dozen home runs on the season with a 17.9% barrel rate and 58.1% hard-hit rate that sill leads this team. Whit Merrifield has been good this season at .292/.347/.404 with a 111 WRC+, six home runs, and 19 stolen bases. Merrifield is a good correlated scoring option who can produce MLB DFS stats on his own for just $4,100/$3,000 at second base or in the outfield. Daulton Varsho has left-handed power but a weak hit tool, he has 12 home runs and has added 11 stolen bases for additional DFS scoring. Alejandro Kirk has pop behind the plate while Kevin Kiermaier is more of a mix-in outfielder from the ninth spot in the projected batting order. Toronto ranks around the middle of our stacks board, they are not unplayable but the matchup against Musgrove is not a good one.
Play: Joe Musgrove, Padres bats/stacks, Alek Manoah value, minor shares of Blue Jays bats as a mid-level option on a deep slate
Update Notes:
San Francisco Giants (-129/5.89) @ Cincinnati Reds (+119/5.24)
The game in Cincinnati is carrying a Coors Lite total of 11 runs, with both teams checking in well over 5.0 implied runs. Targetable righty Luke Weaver is making the start for the hometown Reds, he has a 7.00 ERA with a better but still uninspiring 4.96 xFIP that lends potential to the Giants hitters in this matchup. Weaver has allowed a 10.7% barrel rate and 5.07% home runs while striking out just 17.3% and walking 6.9%. San Francisco is a good option tonight, they rank 13th overall by collective fantasy point projections given the non-star nature of their lineup but they are one of the top value options on the board on both sites. Lefty leadoff man LaMonte Wade Jr. should be back in the top spot today, he is slashing .279/.410/.439 with nine home runs that he has been stuck on for several weeks. Wade has a very good 10.6% barrel rate and 43.3% hard-hit rate and draws walks at a terrific 17.3% clip, he is a very good option for correlated scoring and has plenty of individual potential in this matchup. Joc Pederson is a left-handed power hitter who has made a living off of hitting long balls off bad righties for years, he has a 9.60 in our home run model to lead the Giants and looks like a strong buy at $4,400/$3,000. JD Davis checks in at just $4,100/$2,900, he has 11 home runs with a .166 ISO and 115 WRC+ on the season and his 47.1% hard-hit rate sits second on the team. Davis has been much better against same-handed pitching this season, he has a 121 WRC+ in the split with a .276/.364/.429 triple-slash though his 152 ISO falls short of the .205 mark he has against lefties. Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski have 24 combined home runs in 563 plate appearances this season with WRC+ marks of 106 and 115, both lefty power hitters are easily affordable on either site at $3,400/$3,000 and $3,000/$2,900 in the outfield. Patrick Bailey has been good over 164 plate appearances but is normalizing quickly at the plate, Blake Sabol is a lefty with power and catcher eligibility for a cheaper price than Bailey, and the lineup closes with two mix-in lefty options in Brandon Crawford and Brett Wisely both of whom are below-average for run creation this season.
The Reds lineup is facing capable veteran righty Anthony DeSclafani who is cheap but does not project well against this squad in this ballpark at these run totals. The veteran starter has a 4.44 ERA and 4.08 xFIP with an 18.7% strikeout rate and a very good 4.7% walk rate this season, he has not been bad by any means. DeSclafani has induced just an 8.3% swinging-strike rate with 44.5% hard hits and a 3.11% home run rate on 90 mph of exit velocity, contact that should play into the strengths of the Reds’ up-and-coming offense. At $6,400/$7,700 and with almost certainly no popularity, DeScalfani is not the wildest dart thrown in the world, but Vegas and our model do not expect success very often in this situation. Cincinnati’s projected batting order opens with Elly De La Cruz once again, he is slashing .291/.327/.468 with four home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 107 WRC+ in the first 150 plate appearances of his career. TJ Friedl is having a good year, his strong triple-slash and speed on the bases have kept him involved over 292 plate appearances in which he has created runs 12% better than average with 16 steals. Matt McLain hit his eighth home run last night, he has a .300/.364/.515 triple-slash over 250 plate appearances and sits 31% better than average for run creation. Jake Fraley, Jonathan India, and Joey Votto offer power through the heart of the order with both Fraley and India adding speed to the mix. Fraley has 12 home runs and 16 stolen bases in just 276 opportunities while India sits at 14 and 12 in 418 chances; Votto has hit seven home runs in 80 plate appearances. Rookie Christian Encarnacion-Strand remains a minimum-priced option on the DraftKings slate and costs just $2,800 on FanDuel, he is a high-priority option in stacks of Reds and offers massive power potential with a good hit tool for the price. Will Benson and Luke Maile round out the lineup as playable parts in a good situation.
Play: Giants bats/stacks, Reds bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Chicago White Sox (+107/4.17) @ New York Mets (-116/4.42)
Veteran Carlos Carrasco is making his 13th start of the season at home against the White Sox today. Carrasco has been all over the place this season, he has mixed in very good starts with both short outings and very bad outings, making him a major puzzle in this matchup. Carrasco has the White Sox checked to 4.17 implied runs on a rainy day in the New York area, but the righty has pitched to a 5.16 ERA and 5.08 xFIP with just a 16.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate this season while allowing a 4.51% home run rate on 10.4% barrels and a 44.8% hard-hit rate. After a run of five starts in which he did not pitch beyond the fifth inning and allowed multiple runs and at least one home run each time out, Carrasco went eight innings, striking out four and walking just one while shutting out the Diamondbacks on three hits in his final start before the break. Carrasco has been very good at times throughout his career, but he is wildly unpredictable and difficult to trust. As a tournament play, the righty is certainly on the board at $6,200/$6,400 but no one should mistake this for anything resembling a safe play. The Chicago lineup is projected to be without outfielder Eloy Jimenez, which is a familiar situation that weakens Chicago and strengthens the idea of a Carrasco value play on the mound. Andrew Benintendi and Tim Anderson have been disappointing this season, though Benintendi is slowly climbing and now has a 102 WRC+ for the season. Anderson sits at just 45 and is yet to hit a home run or add to the nine stolen bases he had about two months ago. Luis Robert Jr. is the team’s star, he slots into the outfield at $5,700/$4,000 and has a team-leading 12.22 in our home run model but cannot do everything on his own. Andrew Vaughn has a 105 WRC+ with a .181 ISO and 12 home runs in 388 opportunities, he is an OK option for $3,700/$2,900 at first base. Yasmani Grandal is a cheap playable catcher, Jake Burger has a 9.90 in our home run model and 21 in the books in just 274 plate appearances this season, and Gavin Sheets has viable left-handed power at a cheap price. Oscar Colas is a young outfielder who costs just $2,200/$2,100 and has not done much with 109 plate appearances in the Show thus far. Colas has one home run and a 49 WRC+ but he is a fairly well-regarded power-hitting prospect who deserves a look in Chicago stacks. Zach Remillard is at least cheap with multi-position eligibility, he has a .313/.398/.375 triple-slash in 74 opportunities.
New York’s projected batting order takes its typical shape with Brandon Nimmo leading off ahead of Tommy Pham, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso. The group is a solid four-man unit with playable parts following them in the lineup, all four hitters are above average for run creation, with an average WRC+ of 123 for the group. Alonso leads the way with 26 home runs on the season, Lindor has 19, Pham has nine, and Nimmo has hit 14 while getting on base at a .359 clip. Nimmo costs just $4,200/$3,300, he is a very good investment when stacking Mets and makes for a viable one-off outfielder at low ownership on most nights. Pham has come back to life nicely for New York this season, he is outperforming the team’s star shortstop, Lindor, for run creation to this point but Lindor has him on power. The bottom half of the Mets lineup features veterans including Daniel Vogelbach, Starling Marte, and Jeff McNeil, as well as rookies Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty. Alvarez has been the best of the bunch this season, the rookie backstop has a 118 WRC+ with 17 home runs in just 233 plate appearances. Baty is cheap and has a 46.5% hard-hit rate, while all three of the veterans have been below-average for run creation on the season. The team is facing righty Lucas Giolito, who lands at a projection that is very similar to the point at which we found Musgrove, he is easily playable but does not come cheap at $10,000/$9,300. Giolito has a 25.3% strikeout rate with a 3.45 ERA and 4.26 xFIP but has allowed a 3.68% home run rate on 41.5% hard hits and a 9.5% barrel rate this season. The right-handed veteran is a piece of the puzzle on the mound tonight, he lands seventh overall and fifth on a tightly-packed second tier of starters.
Play: Lucas Giolito, Carlos Carrasco value, minor shares of either stack as a mid-level option with the Mets slightly preferred
Update Notes:
Arizona Diamondbacks (+176/4.44) @ Atlanta Braves (-193/6.19)
This is a difficult situation, if we say Zach Davies is an unplayable option he will go out to the mound and shut out the Braves with 15 strikeouts to win the slate for the one person who plays him tonight, but if there was ever an unplayable pitcher on an MLB DFS slate he would sure look a lot like Zach Davies against the Braves in Atlanta tonight. The Braves have a 6.19-run implied total that rivals the marks at Coors Field tonight and they are our top-ranked stack by both fantasy point projections and home run potential on this slate. The team will have Bryce Elder on the mound to face the productive low-strikeout Diamondbacks lineup, he is in a good spot to pick up a win bonus on both sites and has the talent to find his way to a quality start as well. Elder has a 2.97 ERA but a 4.16 xFIP over 106 innings in 18 outings this season. The righty has an 18.4% strikeout rate and is good at limiting power with just a 2.30% home run rate on 5.7% barrels. He worked to a 1.76% home run rate on 5.8% barrels in 54 innings over nine starts last season to further the case that he is good at keeping home runs in check. Elder will be facing a tough matchup but he is more of an option for depth and clean innings than strikeouts in most cases, he is an option for mid-level shares at $7,800/$8,900.
Arizona’s projected batting order opens with Geraldo Perdomo who has a 120 WRC+ but just a .134 ISO, he needs to sustain his .386 on-base percentage in the leadoff role to provide value as a correlated scorer for MLB DFS purposes. Ketel Marte has 15 home runs and a .207 ISO and costs $5,400/$3,500 at second base, he is a key hitter in stacks of Diamondbacks, but they are only a mid-level option that ranks 10th by fantasy point projections and 26th for home run potential in the matchup. Corbin Carroll costs $5,900/$4,100 in the outfield as he continues an outstanding campaign. Carroll has 18 home runs and 26 stolen bases in 361 plate appearances and has blossomed into a star in a hurry. Christian Walker has 18 home runs and a .239 ISO but just a 5.26 in our home run model against the stingy Elder. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Evan Longoria rank similarly for power potential at 4.01 and 4.95 despite 15 and 11 home runs on the season with ISOs that land at .222 and .274. The Diamondbacks are a hard-hitting bunch, but Elder’s talent lies in taking that away from opponents, if he is successful at executing his gameplan he will have a significant limiting effect on this club. Jake McCarthy, Gabriel Moreno, and Alek Thomas are mix-in options at the bottom of the lineup. The feature in this game is most definitely the loaded offense that the Braves bring to the table. Atlanta has six hitters in the projected batting order that land above 10.0 in our home run model and seven of their nine expected starters have 15 or more home runs this season. The Braves lineup has been a fixture in this space all season, they should be highly familiar with options like Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Sean Murphy providing star-level output on a daily basis. Acuna has 23 home runs and 43 stolen bases and is on pace to make history this season, Albies is the top second baseman in the game and has 22 homers and a .249 ISO, and Riley has hit 16 long balls this season and had 71 between 2021 and 2022. Olson has 30 home runs this year with a massive .315 ISO from the left side. The slugger leads the Braves lineup with a 15.44 in our home run model and looks like a great bet for a tater today. Murphy is one of the game’s best catchers and he probably has the most power at the position, he has 17 home runs and a .282 ISO this year and lands at $5,500/$4,100. Murphy is playable on both sites despite FanDuel’s lack of a catcher requirement, he is better at the plate than many of the options at first base. Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario are highly talented veterans who have roared back to life in 2023. Ozuna has 17 home runs and a 108 WRC+ and Rosario has 15 long balls and a 109 mark for run creation. The lineup closes with one of the best eight-nine hitter combinations in the game this season in Orlando Arcia and Michael Harris II.
Play: Braves bats/stacks aggressively, Bryce Elder, minor shares of Diamondbacks bats as a mid-level option
Update Notes:
Miami Marlins (+135/3.67) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-147/4.42)
The game in St. Louis has the hometown Cardinals favored against the middling Marlins, with Jordan Montgomery looking like a good option on the mound on both sites. The lefty costs $8,200/$9,100 and is pulling in one of our top pitching projections on a day that Miami is carrying just a 3.67-run implied total. Montgomery will have to navigate the prodigious power of Jorge Soler who mashes left-handed pitching, but the veteran starter has been very good at limiting power throughout his career and has been mostly on-form this season. Montgomery has allowed a 2.32% home run rate on 88.3 mph of exit velocity on average and 36.3% hard hits. He has a very good 3.23 ERA with a 3.82 xFIP and a 22.3% strikeout rate over 18 starts and 103 innings. Montgomery has the potential to work deep into the game and book bonuses on both sites, he is a priority pitching pick on this slate. The Marlins projected lineup does not include star hit tool specialist Luis Arraez, but he is almost certainly going to be in his customary leadoff spot ahead of Soler despite a same-handed matchup, regardless of what fantasy sites may expect. If Arraez does not play, Bryan De La Cruz is the projected leadoff hitter, the righty has been good this year at .275/.321/.427 but that falls well short of Arraez who is at .378/.428/.464. Soler has 24 home runs and a .272 ISO, he has a .500 ISO with 10 of his home runs in 81 plate appearances against lefties this season. Garrett Cooper has 12 home runs and a 104 WRC+ with a .178 ISO, Yuli Gurriel is a cheap veteran with a still-decent hit tool, he is slashing .266/.330/.394 in 227 opportunities this year, but the bottom of the lineup is bad for Miami. Jean Segura, Jon Berti, Dane Myers, Nick Fortes, and Garrett Hampson are a low-end bunch that lend upside to Montgomery.
The Cardinals are set to face returning rookie Edward Cabrera who has been out with an injury since mid-June. The young righty costs $9,700/$8,500 and has a 28.9% strikeout rate but he is very likely to come with a significant pitch limit in his return to action. Cabrera made simulated starts in his rehab but he should not be expected to throw beyond 80 pitches tonight. In 14 outings and 71.2 innings in 2022, Cabrera posted a 25.8% strikeout rate with a 3.01 ERA and 4.12 xFIP but walked 11.3%. The young starter’s walk rate has gotten worse this season and his ERA has gotten worse while his strikeout rate has gone up and his xFIP has improved. Overall, the price just seems wrong for a potentially limited pitcher on a day with 28 options on the board, the righty is facing a struggling but talented Cardinals lineup which also does not help his case. Brendan Donovan is cheap at $3,400/$2,800 and has multi-position eligibility in three spots on FanDuel. Donovan has 10 home runs and has created runs 24% better than average this season. Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbaar, and Nolan Arenado make up the top end of the Cardinals’ typical lineup against righties, they have power and speed as well as significant run-creation potential on any given slate. Goldschmidt has 16 home runs and Arenado is up to 20 with memories of his cold start fading into myth. Nootbaar has six home runs and five stolen bases and has created runs 10% better than average for cheap prices and low ownership on most slates. Willson Contreras has power behind the plate, his 11 home runs and 113 WRC+ are competitive positionally. Tyler O’Neill is expected to make his return to the lineup, the power-hitting outfielder missed much of last year and has made just 99 plate appearances this season, he has two home runs and just a 73 WRC+ but was a significant contributor when healthy two years ago with 34 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 145 WRC+. Nolan Gorman is a left-handed masher at second base, he has 18 long balls this season and costs just $4,200/$3,000 with a 10.16 in our home run model. Paul DeJong and Jordan Walker are a pair of capable right-handed hitters to round out the lineup as playable mix-in options.
Play: Jordan Montgomery, Cardinals bats/stacks as a mid-level option
Update Notes:
Washington Nationals (+146/3.80) @ Chicago Cubs (-159/4.79)
The Nationals are facing right-handed veteran Jameson Taillon who costs $6,800/$6,300 in a home start at Wrigley Field. Taillon has been up and down this season, he has a 6.15 ERA but a 4.77 xFIP and has struck out 20.3% of hitters. He has been a roughly league-average pitcher for several seasons in his career and has believable potential to keep the Nationals to around their 3.80-run implied total tonight. Taillon is not a major source of strikeouts and the Nationals do not give plate appearances away willingly, but the team is lousy for run creation and power against righties and the pitcher has just enough talent to get himself on the board with a lower-middle projection at cheap prices. The Washington lineup is a lower-end option tonight, they are more playable against lefties as we were reminded yet again last night. CJ Abrams had a good day at the plate despite facing a southpaw, he is on the better side of his platoon splits today but he still has just a .301 on-base percentage and is a weird option in the leadoff spot. Lane Thomas has hit 14 home runs, Jeimer Candelario tied him for the team lead last night, they sit at 122 and 121 WRC+ as the team’s two above-average run-creators this season. Joey Meneses is at 93 WRC+ while slashing .278/.319/.395 with just six home runs in 376 opportunities. Dominic Smith is a low-end option at first base for $2,600/$2,400, he has five home runs with a .085 ISO in 365 plate appearances that make one wonder if Washington has a farm system at all. Keibert Ruiz has 11 home runs after going deep again last night, the cheap young catcher is a good positional option. Corey Dickerson, Luis Garcia, and Alex Call are a weak bottom third.
Chicago draws targetable lefty Patrick Corbin in his 20th start of the season. Corbin has a 4.89 ERA and 4.57 xFIP with just a 15.2% strikeout rate this season. The southpaw has allowed too much premium contact again this season, though his 8.4% barrel rate is an improvement on last year’s 11% mark. Corbin is still allowing a 44.9% hard-hit rate and his 91.1 mph exit velocity has gone up since last year, the Cubs are in a good spot for run creation and sequencing and have hopes of hitting for power in this matchup with several players at or near the 10.0 mark for home run potential. Corbin is not a strong option on the mound at $6,300/$7,400. Nico Hoerner has five home runs with a 1.9% barrel rate, he is not a power option but does play OK for correlated scoring on the right night. Hoerner had a 106 WRC+ last year but sits at just 90 with a .318 on-base percentage this year. Seiya Suzuki has also slipped below average for run creation at just 98 WRC+, his lack of power has been a concern through most of the season the righty has just seven home runs and a .138 ISO but a 49.7% hard-hit rate is worth buying for just $3,200/$2,700 in this matchup. Ian Happ has eight home runs with a .142 ISO but has created runs 13% better than average and gets on base at a .372 clip this season, he is a good contributor who should be better than he has been going forward. Happ hit a home run last night, he has individual upside and the potential to provide good correlation with power-hitting Cody Bellinger, Yan Gomes, and Christopher Morel, who are priority bats in this stack. Bellinger is the key hitter under consideration, even with a lefty on the mound. He has 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases while slashing .305/.360/.524 with a 136 WRC+ to lead the team when healthy this season. Gomes has eight home runs in 210 plate appearances and Morel has mashed 15 in just 215 tries. Trey Mancini, Miguel Amaya, and Patrick Wisdom round out the lineup, Wisdom has an unreliable bat but a team-leading 19.8% barrel rate and 53.4% hard-hit rate with 16 homers in 229 plate appearances.
Play: Cubs bats/stacks, low-end Taillon value darts
Update Notes:
Tampa Bay Rays (+123/4.01) @ Texas Rangers (-133/4.58)
The playoff preview between the Rays and Rangers rolls on with a matchup between Nathan Eovaldi and Taj Bradley who both look playable from different tiers tonight. Eovaldi is the premium option between the two, he projects third in our model at $10,300/$10,700 and does not get a discount for facing the Rays offense. Eovaldi has been very good throughout most of this season, he has a 2.83 ERA and a 3.65 xFIP with a 24% strikeout rate and has allowed just a 1.76% home run rate on 7.1% barrels. The veteran righty has made several very deep starts and is fairly reliable to chase the quality start, he has allowed four or more earned runs only four times this season, three of those were exactly four runs and the other was a six-run outing that was his worst of the year. Eovaldi has plenty of potential and is unlikely to draw the popularity that he deserves on this slate, there are compelling reasons to roster the righty aggressively on this slate. Bradley, meanwhile, lands at just $7,300 on both sites. The rookie right-hander has a 5.43 ERA but a 3.35 xFIP that is notably better. Bradley has posted a 29.7% strikeout rate in 61.1 innings and 13 starts, he has been a bit up and down for runs but is pitching well under the surface, as evidenced by the aggressive strikeout rate and xFIP to ERA differential, Bradley is a playable option at his prices but the matchup against Texas is not a good one. The Rangers are carrying a 4.58-run implied team total that is probably better left alone in this matchup.
Tampa Bay’s projected batting order opens with Yandy Diaz who costs just $4,900/$3,600 with eligibility at first and third base on FanDuel despite creating runs 62% better than average and slashing .322/.406/.512 so far this season. Diaz continues to roll through the Summer, he has been excellent and has a 56.7% hard-hit rate with just a 15.9% strikeout rate, he is excellent for premium contact and run creation and has individual upside on any given slate with 13 home runs on the board this year. Wander Franco, Luke Raley, and Randy Arozarena are high-end options who have all been excellent this season. Franco has a 122 WRC+, Raley sits at 160, and Arozarena lands at 141 and the group has combined for 42 home runs. Brandon Lowe remains inexpensive at $4,400/$2,900 at second base, he hit 39 home runs in 2021 and has been in and out of the lineup with injury issues since then, Lowe has nine long balls in 229 opportunities with a 100 WRC+ this season. Isaac Paredes, Josh Lowe, and Jose Siri have provided star-level production for the Rays this season, the inexpensive trio has combined for 48 home runs and 28 stolen bases, with Lowe booking 20 of the steals on his own. Paredes has 17 home runs with a .242 ISO and 146 WRC+ and Siri has 18 long balls with a .305 ISO and 113 WRC+. The only player in the projected batting order with a below-average mark for run creation is Francisco Mejia who lands at just 79 in his 154 plate appearances as the team’s backup catcher. The Rays are a highly-ranked stack in our model in a both-sided situation against Eovaldi, they are very much in play despite his presence on the mound. Texas’ bats are the preferred side of the hitting equation given the better matchup, they have a star-laden lineup from top to bottom and land at reasonably affordable prices on this slate. Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are the top middle-infield duo in baseball, they have excellent power on every slate and provide strong on-base skills and run creation capability with a 117 and 180 WRC+ respectively. Nathaniel Lowe has 10 home runs while slashing .278/.367/.434 and creating runs 24% better than average this season, he is cheap price and popularity offset at worst at $4,000/$3,400. Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung have provided major power all season for Texas, Garcia has 24 home runs and Jung sits at 19, they have ISOs of .255 and .217 respectively and check in for $5,500/$4,200 and $4,800/$3,500, Jung is another good option for averaging-down the price of his star-level teammates. Jonah Heim has 13 home runs and a 126 WRC+ in 329 plate appearances and was an All-Star catcher, he and Mitch Garver give the Rangers a solid 1-2 punch at the position, both are playable for power behind the plate. Travis Jankowski has 13 stolen bases with a strong triple-slash in 165 plate appearances over which he has created runs 42% better than average, he hits ahead of the tandem of Ezequiel Duran and Leody Taveras who have been excellent in the bottom two spots in this 1-9 lineup.
Play: Nathan Eovaldi, Rays bats/stacks, Rangers bats/stacks, Taj Bradley value
Update Notes:
Detroit Tigers (-150/4.45) @ Kansas City Royals (+138/3.65)
The showdown in Kansas City features two lousy AL Central teams with the Tigers paying a visit to face lefty Daniel Lynch who has a 4.18 ERA but a 5.23 xFIP with just a 15.5% strikeout rate in 47.1 innings and eight starts. Lynch has allowed a 3.50% home run rate in the small sample, but that has come on just 7.1% barrels and 31.2% hard hits with 87.6 mph of exit velocity. The lefty is facing a low-end Tigers team that is no guarantee to produce and has just a 4.45-run implied total in Vegas despite what would be a good matchup for most teams. Lynch is unlikely to succeed, but he projects in the middle of the board for just $6,300/$7,500 and looks like a playable option tonight, the starter on the other side is the real story in this game however. Detroit’s lineup is minimally playable, they have a lower-middle projection collectively while ranking OK on the value board. The lineup opens with Matt Vierling though he has been better against right-handed pitching than against lefties this season. Vierling has a 110 WRC+ overall with seven home runs and five stolen bases. The righty will hit ahead of Riley Greene who is the only lefty in the projected Tigers lineup, though we would expect Kerry Carpenter to also get the start tonight. Greene has been the team’s best hitter at .295/.365/.442 with six home runs and six stolen bases in 249 opportunities. Spencer Torkelson has 12 home runs but a 95 WRC+, Javier Baez has been lousy all year and sits at just 57 WRC+ which puts him decently ahead of Eric Haase who is at just 47 over 241 plate appearances. Haase is slashing just .204/.249/.288 with three home runs and a .084 ISO overall, he has been a waste of a lineup spot all season. Andy Ibanez is good against lefties and would be the more sensible leadoff option, he has an 85 WRC+ overall but a 112 with a .291 ISO in 57 plate appearances against lefties this year and a .184 career ISO in the split. Miguel Cabrera has an 89 WRC+, Jake Rogers has a 7.51 in our home run model with 11 on the season and a .241 ISO as a sneaky power option late in the lineup, his 105 WRC+ is one of three above-average marks for run creation in this lineup. Zack Short closes things out with a 72 WRC+ for $2,500/$2,400 with three-position eligibility on FanDuel and a league average 100 WRC+ in 50 chances against lefties this season.
The buried lede in all of this is that southpaw Tarik Skubal leads our pitching projections in a fantastic matchup against the lousy high-strikeout Royals. Skubal worked only four innings in each of his first two starts back from the injured list but he seems likely to throw a few more pitches today, he was also excellent in both of those outings. In the first start, Skubal struck out six of the 13 Athletics hitters that he faced while allowing no hits, runs, or walks. In the second start he faced the much tougher Blue Jays lineup and posted another clean game with just two hits and two walks given up while striking out five of 15 hitters. There is plenty of potential for Skubal to dominate this Royals lineup over five innings at $8,400/$8,700, he is an option on both sites but is somewhat better on DraftKings where quality start bonuses are not a concern. Kansas City’s projected batting order runs from Maikel Garcia through MJ Melendez in a three-deep configuration with most of the other options in the lineup landing as mere afterthoughts. Garcia leads off in this setup, he is cheap and is slashing .275/.329/.374 with a 93 WRC+ as one of the Royals’ better hitters. Bobby Witt Jr. is the lone star in the lineup, he has a 101 WRC+ with a .201 ISO, 16 home runs, and 27 stolen bases in 407 opportunities this season. Melendez hits the ball hard to limited results, he has seven homers but just a .134 ISO and 74 WRC+ this season. The balance of the lineup is comprised of low-end options like Freddy Fermin, Drew Waters, Samad Taylor, Nick Pratto, Matt Duffy, and Dairon Blanco, the Royals are a stretch for shares tonight.
Play: Tarik Skubal, Daniel Lynch value darts
Update Notes:
Houston Astros (-221/6.98) @ Colorado Rockies (+200/4.66)
Depending on your source, the Rockies will have either Matt Koch, Noah Davis, or Jake Bird on the mound at the beginning of this game, suffice to say that nothing and no one that takes the mound for Colorado today is a playable option for MLB DFS. The Astros are the slate leaders with a 6.98-run implied team total and major marks for home run upside (depending on which pitcher we use the Astros bounce between the top spot and third overall in the home run model). Houston’s lineup is certain to be popular in this spot, they are the definition of a Coors Field play with a talented but underperforming group demanding a specific decision relative to the field’s exposure when building lineups. Despite the lofty run total and heavy expectations, our inclination is to lean away from the Coors Field spot and into several of the other premium targets for offense on such a deep slate. If the Astros come up with lower-than-expected marks for popularity they can be deployed more aggressively. The approach is a choice, there is nothing wrong with the play and the team is the most likely source of an outburst of fantasy scoring on this slate, getting away from them to some degree is just the easiest way to differentiate lineups if they are popular. Mauricio Dubon is no Jose Altuve in the leadoff spot, the fill-in has a 91 WRC+ and has been in decline but does fill multiple positions from a correlated scoring spot in the lineup at cheap prices in a Coors Field game. Alex Bregman has 13 home runs and a 109 WRC+ but a .152 ISO and a middling triple-slash. The third baseman is still very good at limiting strikeouts and putting the ball in play but his 5.2% barrel rate and 35.5% hard-hit rate are not as stout as one might expect. Kyle Tucker has 14 home runs and 15 stolen bases on the season, he should have been a 30/30 lock in this aggressive baserunning season but it will end up being a tight race to those marks in both categories after a first half that was something of a disappointment. Jose Abreu has eight home runs while slashing .241/.298/.352 with a 77 WRC+ and .112 ISO, Yainer Diaz leads the team with a 13.86 in the home run model today, and Chas McCormick is a good outfield option for just $3,400/$3,600. McCormick has 11 long balls in just 212 plate appearances with a .242 ISO and 146 WRC+. Jeremy Pena, Jake Meyers, and Martin Maldonado round out the projected lineup.
The Rockies are facing Hunter Brown, an outstanding rookie hurler making his first-ever start at Coors Field. Brown has been very good this year, he has a 28.1% strikeout rate in 94 innings over 17 starts with a 4.12 ERA and 3.01 xFIP and has been very good at keeping the ball on the ground with just a 4.4-degree average launch angle. Brown fits the profile of a pitcher who could be viable in this ballpark against one of baseball’s worst lineups, Vegas seems to agree given the 4.66-run implied total for Colorado. The righty costs $8,100/$8,300, with the discount included there is good cause to include him in at least a handful of lineups, despite a lower-middle projection on the pitching board due to the ballpark concerns. Brown is a good pitcher in a good matchup at a bad park, two out of three ain’t bad. The Colorado lineup is playable but low-end, their leadoff man Jurickson Profar has a 79 WRC+ which says a lot about the team’s quality. Kris Bryant is a good player having another low-end season with just an 82 WRC+ and seven home runs. Ryan McMahon is a good lefty power hitter who has 14 home runs with a .203 ISO and a 12.3% barrel rate on the season, at $4,400/$3,300 he is the best Rockies hitting option on this slate. Elias Diaz has a .269/.324/.423 triple-slash with an 88 WRC+ and nine home runs, CJ Cron missed significant time and has nine home runs in just 198 plate appearances as the second-best option for power on this side of the matchup, and Nolan Jones is the only player in the projected Rockies lineup with an above-average run creation mark at 123. Jones has hit nine home runs in 149 plate appearances and is a good left-handed rookie power hitter. Ezequiel Tovar, Harold Castro, and Brenton Doyle are low-priority options that are mix-in plays in stacks of Rockies bats in a lousy situation at a good ballpark for hitting.
Play: bats bats bats, and probably some Hunter Brown value
Update Notes:
New York Yankees (-108/4.60) @ Los Angeles Angels (+101/4.49)
The disappointing Yankees check in with a 4.60 implied team total as slight favorites against lefty Pablo Sandoval and his Los Angeles Angels on the board in Vegas tonight, but anyone who has been paying attention knows there is upside for the lefty starter on the right night. Sandoval has a 4.41 ERA and 4.49 xFIP with an 18.2% strikeout rate, he is a limited starter but the Yankees are a limited offense. Sandoval is good at limiting power, he has allowed just a 33.8% hard-hit rate and 1.56% home run rate in 85.2 innings and 16 starts this season and was at just 1.25% home runs on 33.9% hard hits last season. The lefty costs $7,500/$7,100, while he does not project well he does land around the middle of the board and it would not surprise in the least to see him post a good six-inning start against this club. New York’s projected lineup opens with newly installed leadoff man Oswald Peraza, who is a highly-regarded prospect in the team’s system that was the 1A to Anthony Volpe’s 1 throughout their ascendance. Peraza costs $2,800/$2,300 with three position eligibility in the infield on FanDuel and dual on DraftKings. Giancarlo Stanton has 11 home runs while slashing .201/.280/.445 but posting a .244 ISO in 182 plate appearances. The outfielder has a massive 15.8% barrel rate and 51.7% hard-hit rate on the season, when he connects the ball travels. Stanton is cheap for his ceiling at $4,500/$3,000. Gleyber Torres has 13 home runs with a 110 WRC+, Anthony Rizzo lands at 107 WRC+ but is slashing a disappointing .250/.340/.390, and Harrison Bader is an infrequent contributor of mid-range power and speed who has seven homers and eight stolen bases with a 90 WRC+ in 179 plate appearances. DJ LeMahieu got the day off on Monday but should be back, for whatever that is worth. LeMahieu has an 84 WRC+, two points better than Volpe’s 82, but the rookie outpaces him for counting stats with 13 home runs and 16 stolen bases. Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Kyle Higashioka close out the lousy Yankees lineup, the catcher has a bit of pop behind the plate, Kiner-Falefa is a low-end hitter.
Los Angeles will be facing strike-throwing Domingo German, who has a 14% swinging-strike rate and 30.5% CSW% in a wild season that has been all over the map including the 24th perfect game in MLB history. German has a 4.32 ERA and 4.09 xFIP for the season and he has been good with a 24.6% strikeout rate. The flaws come around premium contact, German has allowed an 8.8% barrel rate with a 40.2% hard-hit rate and 4.28% home runs in his 91.2 innings and 17 starts this season, if he could eliminate a few mistakes he would take a step forward as a more reliable starter. At $8,700/$7,700 there is enough meat on the bone to include the righty in a pitching pool, he projects similarly to Sandoval on the other side of this game. The Angels’ lineup includes Zach Neto who is a good option for correlated scoring with superstar Shohei Ohtani who does not stop hitting home runs. Ohtani leads baseball with 35 long balls and has a .370 ISO that defies belief, he is well worth the $6,400/$4,500 price tags. Mickey Moniak has been good from the left side, he has a 10.38 in our home run model looking for his 11th of the season. Taylor Ward also has 10 home runs this season, his 99 WRC+ and .143 ISO are shaky marks and he is a roller coaster at the plate but he can be a key hitter when this team delivers and he comes cheap at $3,800/$2,900. Mike Moustakas and Matt Thaiss both offer pop from the left side while Hunter Renfroe is a slumping but significant source of right-handed power lurking late in the lineup. Trey Cabbage and Luis Rengifo close out the projected batting order as mix-in options.
Play: mid-range exposure to Angels bats/stacks and Yankees bats/stacks, either pitcher as a lower-mid value option in small doses
Update Notes:
Boston Red Sox (-200/5.35) @ Oakland Athletics (+165/3.88)
The Red Sox land as another team with a significant expectation for runs on the board in Vegas in their matchup against Luis Medina and the Athletics. Medina has been targetable all season, he has a 6.34 ERA and a 4.61 xFIP and has allowed far too much premium contact with 43.6% hard hits and a 4.07% home run rate while walking 11.9% in an unsustainable combination. Medina is not an option on the mound at $6,100/$6,700. The Red Sox lineup is a potentially major source of fantasy points today, they should have Rafael Devers back in the lineup after the start took a breather last night. Devers hits cleanup and has 23 home runs with a .261 ISO and a 52.6% barrel rate from the left side, his 11.61 in our home run model leads the Red Sox lineup. Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida are a pair of talented lefties atop the lineup that align nicely against Medina, they have WRC+ marks of 137 and 138 with good power and a bit of speed. Duran has five home runs and 17 stolen bases and gets on base at a .368 clip, Yoshida has 11 home runs and seven stolen bases and reaches first at a .379 pace. Right-handed veteran infielder Justin Turner has been one of baseball’s better hit tool options for years, he is slashing .290/.360/.474 with 14 home runs and a 126 WRC+ this season and should hit third ahead of Devers as usual. Alex Verdugo, Adam Duvall, and Triston Casas are a solid lefty-righty-lefty trio later in the lineup, Verdugo has mid-range power and a very good hit tool with good on-base skills ahead of the power upside in Duvall and Casas who check in at $4,300/$3,100 and $2,500/$2,800. Connor Wong and Yu Chang are the bottom two options in the lineup, Wong has six home runs and a good 9.3% barrel rate, Chang has four home runs and a .206 ISO in his limited 67 plate appearances.
The Athletics are rarely a strong option, even against lefty Brandon Walter they are not flashing much potential for power or run creation, but they are inexpensive for DFS purposes. The team is carrying just a 3.88-run implied total with Walter pitching potentially anywhere between one and six innings. The lefty worked 6.2 innings in bulk relief against the Twins on June 22nd but has not gone more than three innings in his four appearances since then. Walter is not a good option on the mound today, he has a 14.8% strikeout rate in the sample with a 5.19 xFIP and unpredictable innings. Nick Allen is a low-end slap-hitter in the projected leadoff spot, rookie Zack Gelof is a better starting point hitting second in the projected batting order. Gelof has a team-leading 10.27 in our home run model today, he has made 16 plate appearances in the Show so far to good results. Jordan Diaz has six home runs in 107 plate appearances, Brent Rooker has 16 in 313 opportunities, and Ryan Noda has 10 in his 337 chances and also gets on base at a .374 clip while creating runs 27% better than average to tie Rooker for the team lead. Aledmys Diaz, JJ Bleday, Shea Langeliers, and Tony Kemp are low-end late lineup options in this low-priority stack.
Play: Red Sox bats/stacks aggressively
Update Notes:
Minnesota Twins (+119/3.57) @ Seattle Mariners (-129/4.01)
The final game of the gargantuan slate opens with Bryan Woo on the mound to face the lousy high-strikeout Twins. Woo has been mostly excellent in his seven starts and 34.2 innings in the Show thus far. The right-handed rookie has a 3.63 ERA with a 3.29 xFIP and a terrific 30.5% strikeout rate. Woo has induced a 12.5% swinging-strike rate with his excellent arsenal and he sits at a 28.5% CSW% while allowing just 38.2% hard hits and a 2.84% home run rate in the small sample. The righty works in the mid-to-upper 90s with a strong fastball-sinker-slider mix that features a more limited cutter-changeup-curveball combination as alternates when needed. Woo is a high-end option on this slate, he is one of the highest projected starters in our pitching model and costs just $7,900/$8,100 in a premium matchup. Woo is likely to be popular at his prices but the rookie righty is worthwhile given the 28.1% strikeout rate in the projected Twins batting order. Minnesota’s lineup opens with Carlos Correa who has struggled his way to a 99 WRC+ and 11 home runs for $4,500/$2,900. The discount is playable for the former star shortstop, but Correa has been lousy for much of 2023. Edouard Julien hits the ball hard, he has a 15.2% barrel rate and 45.7% hard-hit rate with seven home runs in 162 plate appearances but strikes out 32.1% of the time. Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, and Donovan Solano are playable bats through the middle with Buxton as the star fixture with struggles in his triple-slash and a lousy strikeout rate. Kirilloff and Solano have both been more reliable in their triple-slash this season and strike out less than Buxton, but the upside in the outfielder is greater and he is discounted to just $5,300/$3,100 given his struggles. Max Kepler is also cheap at $2,700, he has 13 home runs and a .205 ISO in 244 plate appearances this season. The bottom third includes Christian Vazquez, Joey Gallo, and Michael A. Taylor, the latter two are good options for cheap low-owned home runs but they are highly flawed hitters.
Righty Bailey Ober takes the mound for the Twins, he is in a similar situation to Woo in terms of facing a flawed high-strikeout lineup, but he does not match the rookie’s strikeout potential and is facing the tougher situation with Seattle favored and landing a half-run higher in Vegas. Ober would be playable at lower prices, $9,100/$9,800 seems like a bit of a tax in this situation, he has a 24.6% strikeout rate with a 5.6% walk rate and 2.61 ERA but a 4.33 xFIP this season. Ober has been good, he is certainly playable for the cost and is likely to be under-owned for his talent, but other options project better at lower prices on this deep slate. The Mariners’ lineup has a 25.8% strikeout rate collectively in its projected form, but the team includes several appealing hitters in a vacuum. JP Crawford correlates well with the power of Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic at the top of the projected lineup, Rodriguez is the most expensive of the group on either site at a team-leading $4,800/$3,600. The sophomore outfielder has 13 home runs and 22 stolen bases with a 103 WRC+, he is a good example of the quality options with bad strikeout rates that outpace the options in the Minnesota lineup. Only Kolten Wong, the ninth hitter, is below average for run creation in the projected Seattle lineup. Crawford sits at 121 WRC+, Kelenic has 11 home runs and a 113, and Eugenio Suarez has hit a dozen long balls and has a 101 WRC+ despite just a .153 ISO. Cal Raleigh, Teoscar Hernandez, and Ty France form the next block in the lineup, the first two have major power with unreliable ability to actually make contact and high strikeout rats while France is more contact-oriented and leads the team with an 18.6% strikeout rate. Raleigh has 12 home runs and Hernandez has 15, on the right night they are major sources of fantasy points. Mike Ford has nine home runs in 102 plate appearances but is not that hitter, Kolten Wong is cheap because he has been bad throughout all of 2023.
Play: Bryan Woo, Bailey Ober
Update Notes:
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