A super-sized 12-game slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel has us hustling so that we can have content posted with enough time to both provide value and time to build lineups for the 7:05 ET lock. The slate features an interesting mix of pitchers, with a few high-end options and a fairly broad mid-range of same-same selections for SP2, value, or low-owned spots on both sites. The board in Vegas has six games with a 9.0-run total, three at 9.5, two at 8.0, and the lowly late game in San Francisco checks in at just 7.0. Only the Rangers and Astros are massive favorites, against the Rockies and Athletics respectively, which makes total sense, all of the remaining games on the slate are looking relatively close.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Overview – 5/19/23
Chicago Cubs (+120/4.04) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-130/4.56)
The frisky Cubs lineup is squaring off against lefty Ranger Suarez who will be making his second start of the season tonight. Suarez threw four innings in his first start, striking out four and walking one while getting charged with three earned runs on seven hits. Over 155.1 innings in 2021, Suarez had a 19.5% strikeout rate and a 3.65 ERA with a 3.82 xFIP but just an 8.8% swinging-strike rate and 25.5% CSW%, on what will likely be a slightly limited pitch count and a generally ongoing lack of significant upside against a good lineup, Suarez does not look like a great option on a deep slate. He projects in the lower-middle of the pitching options tonight and does come cheap at just $6,300/$8,600, but he is probably more of a play as an SP2 on DraftKings. The Cubs stack is in play for us tonight, the team is flashing a fair amount of power in the home run model and they have several hitters at very good prices. The discount for Cubs bats on DraftKings is significant, the team could be a very good source of value tonight, leadoff man Nico Hoerner is the most expensive hitter in the projected lineup at $5,000, he is a $3,500 option at second base on the blue site. Hoerner has two home runs and 12 steals in 164 plate appearances this year. Dansby Swanson is a favored player in this space who typically goes under-owned for MLB DFS. The shortstop costs just $4,500/$3,200, he has three home runs and four stolen bases this year but has been a double-digit star in both categories throughout his career. Swanson is carrying an 11.4% barrel rate and walking 13.5% of the time, he is involved in most of the team’s run-scoring and has a 116 WRC+. Ian Happ costs just $4,300/$3,000 in the outfield, he is slashing .303/.422/.467 with a 147 WRC+, four home runs, and four stolen bases this year. Happ is a sturdy mid-range bat in the heart of the lineup and he is currently leading the team by WRC+ if we skip over Christopher Morel’s 232 mark in just 36 plate appearances. Morel is projected to hit later in the lineup but he has been outrageous since returning, mashing five home runs in the 36 turns at the plate while slashing .371/.389/.857, he is a strong option late in the lineup and would be an even better option if he is leading off or hitting higher in the batting order. The projected lineup has Morel hitting seventh behind a three-man power core of Seiya Suzuki, Cody Bellinger, and Patrick Wisdom. Suzuki has hit five home runs this year with a .205 ISO and 134 WRC+ and quietly has a terrific 50% hard-hit rate for just $4,100/$3,100; Bellinger came roaring out of the gate but has cooled to .271/.337/.493 and has been sitting on seven home runs, but he is still limiting strikeouts to just 19% and he still has a .222 ISO and 122 WRC+ in 163 plate appearances and his price has dropped somewhat; Wisdom leads the Cubs with 12 home runs and he has a gargantuan .338 ISO over 150 plate appearances. Wisdom is a premium right-handed power hitter and a three-true-outcomes bat who also is striking out at a 36% clip with a 12% walk rate this year. For just $4,000/$3,500 at third base on DraftKings and with added outfield eligibility on FanDuel, Wisdom is a top play on the slate, he has a 14.85 in our home run model. It is worth mentioning that Suarez is typically good at keeping the ball down, he allowed just a 2.27% home run rate with a 5.1-degree average launch angle in 29 starts last year. After Morel, Trey Mancini and Yan Gomes close out the lineup with moderate right-handed power potential and good bats. Mancini has three home runs this year while slashing .262/.326/.362 but has just a .100 ISO and 89 WRC+. Gomes has been good at catcher when he plays, over 91 plate appearances he already has six home runs with a 116 WRC+ and .224 ISO. The backstop costs just $2,800/$3,200 tonight, he is a good option to include when stacking Cubs where the position is needed.
Right-handed veteran Marcus Stroman costs just $8,800/$9,500 tonight, he has always been a better real-life pitcher than a great MLB DFS option but he can provide value in the right spots. A matchup against the Phillies does not seem like that kind of spot, but Stroman has been pitching well so far this season. The righty has a 23.2% strikeout rate in nine starts and 50 innings while pitching to a 3.24 ERA and 3.48 xFIP. Stroman is very good at keeping the ball in the yard, he had a 2.81% home run rate with a seven-degree average launch angle last year and a 2.33% home run rate on a 6.3-degree average angle in 2021. This season he has improved to a 1.97% home run rate allowed on a 3.8-degree average launch angle and just a 3.7% barrel rate. Stroman could find a fair number of strikeouts against the Phillies, the team has a 25% strikeout rate on average through the projected lineup, a mark that is improved by leadoff man Bryson Stott at just a 16.1% strikeout rate and projected seventh hitter Alec Bohm who is striking out at just 15.9%. If we remove those two hitters, the remaining seven are at a 27.5% strikeout rate for the season, but there are some deadly hitters in that mix as well. Stott opens the lineup for $4,500/$2,800, he has just an 89 WRC+ over 186 plate appearances this year and is getting on base at just a .317 clip with a 3.4% barrel rate and 34.2% hard-hit rate, adding three home runs and five stolen bases. Stott is not a major contributor right now, the Phillies may be due for a shakeup up top. Trea Turner costs $5,300/$2,900, the discount on FanDuel is significant for the star shortstop because of an extended slump. Turner is slashing .262/.308/.399 with a .137 ISO and 88 WRC+ over 195 plate appearances with four home runs and five stolen bases, but he was a 21/27 man over 708 plate appearances last year and he went 28/32 the season before. Bryce Harper got himself back to starring for the Phillies quickly, he is slashing .314/.386/.490 with a 140 WRC+ over 57 plate appearances, he costs $6,200/$4,200 in the outfield, with additional eligibility at first base on FanDuel. Harper is always an option to some degree, he is a superstar hitter, but the price is very high and the matchup against Stroman is not the best environment for run creation or home run upside, Harper has just a 7.18 in our home run model. Nick Castellanos costs $4,700/$3,500, the outfielder is slashing .304/.350/.476 with a 124 WRC+ in a nice bounce-back, he is a good buy at these prices when going to the Phillies stack. Kyle Schwarber is a premium left-handed power bat, he leads the Phillies with an 8.17 in our home run model, but that is a limited rating for Schwarber, who lands above 10.0 with regularity. JT Realmuto is slashing .304/.331/.507 with three home runs and a .203 ISO, he remains one of baseball’s best catchers. Bohm is down to a 105 WRC+ over 176 plate appearances after starting hot, but he is having a generally good year and is rarely expensive or popular at a low price. Brandon Marsh and Kody Clemens close out the projected lineup with two sturdy left-handed power bats, Marsh has four home runs and a .231 ISO in 146 plate appearances, Clemens has three home runs with a .227 ISO in 47 and costs just $2,400 at first base on both sites.
Play: Cubs bats/stacks, Ranger Suarez SP2 value shares on DraftKings in small doses in large tournaments, only minor shares of Phillies bats and/or Stroman
Update Notes: the Phillies lineup was confirmed in its expected form. the confirmed Cubs lineup looks mostly as expected, with Hoerner-Swanson-Happ-Suzuki-Wisdom-Mancini-Gomes-Morel-Nick Madrigal. The run total in this game is down a half-run since this morning to 8.5.
Detroit Tigers (-110/4.36) @ Washington Nationals (+102/4.23)
The series no one has been waiting for sees the Tigers in the nation’s capital to face the Nationals, who will have Jake Irvin on the hill. The righty has made three starts and thrown 15.1 innings so far this year, he has a 21.9% strikeout rate but a 12.5% walk rate this season. The rookie has pitched to a 4.11 ERA but a 5.10 xFIP with a 1.30 WHIP and has somehow managed to find his league-average strikeout rate despite just 5.3% swinging strikes and a 25.9% CSW%. Irvin is not a major prospect, the former fourth-round pick is interestingly the only player on the current active roster who was actually drafted by Washington, but he grades out as just a middling organizational prospect. Of course, the Tigers are one of baseball’s worst lineups against right-handed pitching with just a 78 WRC+ and a .107 ISO this year. The Tigers have been consistently bad in the split for several seasons, the low-end lineup is typically a target for starting pitching shares and we have seen low-end starters succeed against them this season, but the Irvin play is not one in which we would have significant confidence. For $6,700/$8,200 he is another option that looks better for value as an SP2 on the DraftKings slate than he does standing alone at the FanDuel price. The weak Tigers lineup is similarly in play but not overly appealing, given the matchup against the low-end rookie. Zach McKinstry is projected to lead off, he is one of two Tigers with a positive WRC+ at 115 in his 106 plate appearances. The other is fellow lefty Riley Greene, who hits next in the lineup and has a 111 WRC+ over 170 chances. McKinstry has hit two home runs and stolen five bases so far this season and he costs $3,900/$2,500, but he is not a Major League hitter. Greene is slashing .291/.341/.411 with three home runs and five stolen bases this year, he has a 9.2% barrel rate and 42.2% hard-hit rate for the year as probably the team’s best hitter. Javier Baez is slashing .248/.304/.352 with a .103 ISO and creating runs 16% worse than average while draining this franchise of cash resources. Spencer Torkelson hasn’t stolen much cash from the Tigers to this point, but there were better uses for that first-overall pick than this. Torkelson has three home runs and is slashing .233/.289/.360 with a .127 ISO and 77 WRC+ in 166 plate appearances. Nick Maton has a .159 ISO and four home runs in 130 chances this year, he costs just $3,000/$2,300 at third base on DraftKings and with added second base eligibility on FanDuel. Andy Ibanez, Akil Baddoo, Matt Vierling, and Jake Rogers close out the projected lineup. Rogers leads the team with five home runs but he is slashing .184/.287/.434. The cheap $2,200/$2,600 catcher has a .250 ISO in 87 plate appearances and could be a frisky option if looking in Detroit’s direction. The other three players in that final group are low-end options, Baddoo has the most potential for MLB DFS scoring with low-end power and decent speed, but he has not done much this year.
The Nationals are facing targetable Matthew Boyd in a similar situation. The pitcher has not been good this season or really at any point in recent years. Boyd has a 19.9% strikeout rate with a 6.47 ERA and 5.29 xFIP over 32 innings in seven starts this year while allowing a 3.42% home run rate. In 2021 he made 15 starts and threw 78.2 innings with a 19.9% strikeout rate and a 2.67% home run rate while pitching to a 3.89 ERA but a 4.79 xFIP. For just $7,100/$7,900 there is certainly a touch of upside in any pitcher, yourself included, against this Nationals lineup, but the team has a bit more viability against lefties, as we have explored several times in this space. For the season, Washington’s active roster has a 74 WRC+ against righties, ranking them 29th among baseball’s 30 teams, against lefties the team ranks 10th in the game with a 116 WRC+, though their .137 ISO ranks 26th. Lane Thomas is projected to lead off, he has a 106 WRC+ for the season to lead the team over 179 plate appearances in which he has hit five home runs and stolen four bases. Thomas costs $3,900/$2,900, making him the most expensive Nationals hitter on either site tonight. Against lefties, Thomas has a 180 WRC+ with a .234 ISO in 53 plate appearances this season, with three of his home runs coming in the split. Luis Garcia has an 83 WRC+ over 163 plate appearances but a 132 over 41 chances against lefties with a .189 ISO. Jeimer Candelario is not good against lefties historically, he sits at exactly league-average by WRC+ overall for the season with five home runs and a .179 ISO but his WRC+ is just 72 against lefties with a .082 ISO. Keibert Ruiz has three home runs but a 70 WRC+ and a .105 ISO while slashing .224/.291/.329, he has struggled worse against left-handed pitching so far with just a 40 WRC+, a .100 ISO, and is slashing .175/.244/.275 over 45 plate appearances. Alex Call has hit three home runs and stolen three bases over 169 plate appearances overall, but he has a 151 WRC+ with a .171 ISO against lefties in 53 chances. Dominic Smith is slashing .278/.364/.318 with a 94 WRC+ but no power, he has one home run and a .040 ISO but he has created runs 12% better than average in 53 plate appearances against same-handed pitching. Right-handed outfielder Stone Garrett has a 54.3% hard-hit rate but just a lone home run and a .086 ISO over 79 plate appearances, he has a 5.28 in our home run model and is an interesting option late in this lineup when stacking Nationals. Ildemario Vargas and CJ Abrams close out the lineup, Abrams has four home runs and five stolen bases this season, and combined the two infielders have four home runs and five stolen bases. Abrams is interesting enough at $2,900/$2,800.
Play: an argument can be made both for and against any one of the four corners of this game. We would rank it: Nationals bats, Boyd, Irvin, then Tigers bats. If any spot gets popular it is not worthwhile.
Update Notes: the Tigers lineup runs McKinstry-Baez-Greene-Torkelson-Ibanez-Maton-Baddoo-Eric Haase-Vierling. Haase is a power hitter who has been limited to just two home runs and a .094 ISO on a four percent barrel rate and 34.7% hard hits this year. The Nationals lineup sees Smith hitting fifth and Garrett moving up to sixth, with Ruiz sliding to seventh. The run total in this game is down a half-run since this morning to 8.5 and the Tigers have pulled ahead as slight favorites.
Baltimore Orioles (+136/4.34) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-148/5.26)
The Orioles are in a very good spot for power against lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who has struggled with home runs over the past few seasons. In 2021, the southpaw allowed a 4.05% home run rate on 91.9 mph of average exit velocity with a 47% hard-hit rate and 11% barrel rate over 157 innings and 29 starts while striking out 24.5% and walking 9.3% with a 4.41 ERA but a better 3.85 xFIP. Last season, Kikuchi struck out 27.3% and pitched to a 5.19 ERA but a 4.07 xFIP, but his home run rate was 5.07% on 47.1% hard hits and a 14.8% barrel rate with 91.6 mph of average exit velocity. In eight starts and 41.2 innings this year, Kikuchi has a 3.89 ERA and 4.10 xFIP with a 22.9% strikeout rate, but he has allowed the same 47.6% hard-hit rate, 92.5 mph of average exit velocity, and an 11.1% barrel rate that have added up to a 6.29% home run rate for the year. Kikuchi can find spots where his strikeout stuff shines and, outside of the ongoing issues with power, he could be a league-average pitcher with a bit of a ceiling for MLB DFS, but he is very difficult to trust at $8,100/$8,800. The Orioles have good marks in our home run model, both Ryan Mountcastle and Anthony Santander land above the magic number at 11.66 and 10.57 respectively, they are projected to hit third and fourth in the lineup tonight. Cedric Mullins leads off, he has six home runs and 12 stolen bases so far this year with a 130 WRC+ and .209 ISO while slashing .266/.356/.475 in 182 opportunities and he is worth the salary in the outfield. Adley Rutschman is a strong catcher option for $5,200/$3,300, he has seven home runs and a 142 WRC+ in 194 opportunities this season with a 9.1% barrel rate while striking out just 14.4% of the time and walking a whopping 17.5%. Mountcastle has a 16.3% barrel rate and 46.8% hard-hit rate this season and has hit nine home runs in 192 chances. Santander has hit seven home runs with a 120 WRC+ and a .212 ISO, the switch-hitting outfielder has an 11.5% barrel rate with a 50.4% hard-hit mark for the season but he is still cheap at $4,500/$3,000 after a bit of a slow start. Austin Hays had a hot start but has been somewhat cooler in recent outings. Hays has five home runs with a .191 ISO and 136 WRC+ while slashing .312/.355/.504, he is too cheap at $4,000/$2,700, the outfielder hit 16 home runs with a 105 WRC+ last year and had 22 with a .205 ISO and 106 WRC+ in 2021. James McCann slots in against the lefty in the projected lineup as a second catcher who is a platoon specialist in this split. Jorge Mateo is slashing .252/.298/.454 with a .202 ISO, he has been on the decline through May but he has significant any-given-slate upside and is unlikely to be popular at $5,200. For $3,000 on FanDuel, Mateo’s dip in performance is already baked in, he is a good buy when going to Orioles on the blue site. Gunnar Henderson is still below the Mendoza line at .197, but he has a .342 on-base percentage and has created runs two percent better than average while walking 17.4% of the time. Joey Ortiz rounds out the lineup at a cheap price.
The Blue Jays lineup always looks at least a bit appealing, with their star-laden top end. Toronto is a better option than that against righty Kyle Gibson tonight, but the veteran is not a complete pushover on the mound. Gibson has a 4.67 ERA and 4.56 xFIP in 52 innings and nine starts this season and he has struck out just 16.4% of opposing hitters. Last year he struck out 20.1% with a 5.05 ERA but a 3.94 xFIP in 167.2 innings over 31 starts, which was in line with expectations from the previous year in a similar sample. The righty costs $7,300/$8,000, he has provided MLB DFS value intermittently throughout his career but this does not seem like the right night outside of a few darts for members of the Gibson family, and then even only as a DraftKings SP2. The burly Blue Jays lineup has good-not-great power marks, George Springer leads off with an 8.43 in our home run model, he has hit five homers this year in a slow start with just a .096 ISO. Springer hit 25 home runs with a .205 ISO last year and 22 with a .291 ISO the year before, he is a star who is very cheap at $4,200/$2,800. The star outfielder still strikes out at just a 15.9% clip, but his hard-hit rate has dipped by about eight percentage points. Bo Bichette costs just $5,400/$3,700, he has nine home runs with a .199 ISO and has created runs 50% better than average this year. The star shortstop has an 11% barrel rate and 47.7% hard-hit rate while striking out just 15.6% of the time. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a 10.13 in the home run model to lead the team. The first baseman is carrying a 15.7% barrel rate and 56% hard-hit rate for the year while slashing .312/.383/.516 with a .204 ISO and 149 WRC+. Lefty Daulton Varsho has six home runs while slashing .217/.293/.379 while creating runs 14% worse than average this year, he is priced down to $4,100/$2,800 but he has a decent 7.54 in our home run model against a pitcher who can give up power. Matt Chapman has been stuck at five home runs for a while now, he is still slashing .311/.393/.516 with a .205 ISO and 153 WRC+ after a hot start. Whit Merrifield has 12 stolen bases but just an 87 WRC+, he is typically good for correlated scoring with moderate individual upside for MLB DFS scoring, he hit 11 home runs and stole 16 bases in 550 plate appearances last year with a 10/40 season in 720 tries the year before. Brandon Belt remains very cheap at $2,300/$2,500, he has just two home runs in 109 plate appearances but is up to .250/.339/.396 with a 108 WRC+ and his 11.1% barrel rate and 42.6% hard-hit rate are appealing from the left side against a middling righty. Alejandro Kirk is a viable catcher bat who has a good hit tool and mid-range power for just $2,900/$2,600, he is too cheap on both sites. Kevin Kiermaier is here more for defense but he has been undeniable at the plate in 125 plate appearances with a .327/.387/.522 triple-slash, three home runs, and four stolen bases so far in 2023. The veteran will not maintain that level of productivity all year, but he has some game-by-game upside at cheap prices and low ownership.
Play: Orioles bats/stacks as one of the leading stack options, Blue Jays bats/stacks
Update Notes: the Orioles lineup has Ryan McKenna hitting sixth ahead of Mateo-Adam Frazier-Ortiz. McKenna and Frazier are in for McCann and Henderson from the projected lineup, they are relatively low-end options but not much more so than the players they are replacing. The Blue Jays lineup runs as expected with Belt moving up to sixth and Merrifield landing seventh and Danny Jansen stepping in for Kirk at catcher.
Cleveland Guardians (+123/4.01) @ New York Mets (-133/4.58)
Veteran Mets starter Carlos Carrasco will be returning from the injured list tonight after sitting out since mid-April with elbow inflammation. Carrasco made three starts early in the year, pitching to a 12.3% strikeout rate with a 12.3% walk rate, an 8.56 ERA, and a 6.65 xFIP. He has made two rehab starts in the minors, last appearing on Sunday and throwing only 52 pitches. It seems reasonable to expect only around 75-80 pitches from the veteran tonight, which would take him off of the pitching board at $8,200/$7,400 even in a good matchup against the Guardians. In a full start, Carrasco would project in the lower middle of our board, so we do not seem to be losing much. The Guardians lineup should see the return of Jose Ramirez, which is a big boost despite his underperformance. Leadoff man Steven Kwan has a 99 WRC+ for the year with nine stolen bases but he has not been the correlated scoring asset he was for all of last year, despite increasing his walk rate and keeping his single-digit strikeout rate intact. Kwan has suffered from some bad luck, he needs the ball to fall in because he does not hit for power, but he should turn things around and still gets involved regularly in the rare instances that this team has a rally. Amed Rosario is slashing just .247/.280/.351 with one home run and seven stolen bases while creating runs 29% worse than average. Ramirez sits at .285/.364/.457 with a 113 WRC+ and is easily this team’s best player. The star is at a cheap for him $5,000/$3,300 tonight, he has a 7.74 in our home run model and could provide a one-off upside assuming he is in the lineup. Josh Naylor has been a letdown this season, he has six home runs and a .172 ISO with a 76 WRC+ in 142 plate appearances. Naylor costs $3,400/$2,600 and does have a 9.4% barrel rate and 45.3% hard-hit rate for the season, but .219/.275/.391 is not a premium triple-slash or even a good one. Josh Bell is at .227/.339/.353 with a 96 WRC+, Andres Gimenez is slashing .238/.313/.361 with an 88, and Mike Zunino .165/.276/.318 with just two home runs and a .152 ISO, if Cleveland had a theme it would be underachievement. Will Brennan and Myles Straw are low-end options at the end of the lineup.
The Mets are facing Cal Quantrill who has made a few good starts this season from a real baseball perspective. Quantrill has just an 11.7% strikeout rate with a 6.4% swinging-strike rate and 19.8% CSW% but has found his way to a 3.97 ERA. That mark is betrayed by his ugly 5.56 xFIP, and the righty allows far too much contact and is unable to pitch around even a 7.6% walk rate in a sustained sense, the mediocre and bad starts will outpace the good ones in the long run. Quantrill is cheap at $6,900/$7,800 and the Mets have yielded some good MLB DFS scoring outings to pitchers this season, but barring the CGSO it seems like a lot to ask of this pitcher to find a significant ceiling. A few SP2 darts are not entirely out of order, but they are not recommended. The Mets lineup opens with Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor who make a great pair to start off a stack. Nimmo is an excellent leadoff hitter who gets on base at a .383 clip and has created runs 28% better than average this year, and Lindor is a star with power and run-creation abilities of his own. Lindor has slumped to start the year, he is sitting at just .225/.308/.410 with a .185 ISO and 102 WRC+. Jeff McNeil’s stats suffer when the ball is not falling in, he was unlucky through the early part of the year but his BABIP is on the rise at .303 and he is up to .282/.362/.368 with a 111 WRC+. McNeil is still not a traditional three-hitter, but in a configuration that looks at Nimmo and Lindor as a run creation unit then McNeil and Pete Alonso as a separate unit, the thinking is passable. Alonso is one of the game’s leading power hitters, he has 16 home runs and a titanic .305 ISO in 192 plate appearances this season. Brett Baty has three home runs and is slashing .241/.323/.386 with a 102 WRC+ over 93 opportunities. The premium prospect costs $3,100/$2,600 and he has excellent indicators with a 9.2% barrel rate and 53.8% hard-hit rate in the small sample, he should be played and he helps offset pricing and popularity in Mets stacks tonight. Starling Marte has been in and out of the lineup while struggling, he has a .238/.301/.287 triple slash with only one home run. Marte has stolen 11 bases this year but has created runs 28% worse than average, his price is low but the performance has been bad. Mark Vientos is another premium prospect who is projected to play tonight, giving the Mets stack an interesting pairing of young hitters with good ceilings for power and run creation. Vientos hit a home run in his debut but has made just 45 plate appearances between this year and a cup of coffee last season. Eduardo Escobar is cheap at $2,900/$2,400 with eligibility at second and third base on DraftKings but only third on FanDuel, Francisco Alvarez is the Mets’ third major prospect seeing action, he has gotten 84 plate appearances this year and has hit four home runs with a .205 ISO, despite being generally thought of as having been promoted a bit early due to injuries to other catchers on the roster. Alvarez has not been a star, but he has a high ceiling and should grow as a hitter over time.
Play: Mets bats/stacks, Jose Ramirez one-offs if he plays, only minor shares of Guardians hitters
Update Notes: The Guardians lineup runs as anticipated through the top two-thirds then ends Straw-Brennan-Gallagher. The Mets lineup is as anticipated with the exception of the eighth spot which will go to Mark Canha instead of Escobar. The run total in this game is down a half-run since this morning to 8.5.
Seattle Mariners (+131/3.93) @ Atlanta Braves (-143/4.67)
The Mariners draw Bryce Elder in a matchup of dueling Bryces in Atlanta tonight. The Braves are pulling in a 4.94-run implied total as the favorites and they are showing major signs of power in our home run model as a team, despite the excellence of the Mariners’ rookie starter. The Seattle lineup, meanwhile, is somewhat suppressed at 4.16 implied runs, because Elder has been mostly excellent over eight starts in 2023. The righty costs $9,200/$10,200, he has a 20.7% strikeout rate with a sparkling 1.94 ERA and a more telling 3.75 xFIP in 46.1 innings and he has been good at limiting home run upside. Elder has allowed just a 1.60% home run rate on a 6.8-degree average launch angle despite 48.5% hard hits and a 91.6 mph average exit velocity. Last season he limited hard hits to just 34.4% on an 8.8-degree angle and kept home runs to 1.76% in 54 innings and nine starts with similar numbers across the board. The righty is moderately playable but the price is high against a good lineup. Seattle’s leadoff man JP Crawford is getting on base at a .367 clip and makes a good correlated scoring option at $3,400/$2,800, though he would occupy premium shortstop shares on a night with numerous stronger options. Ty France has just a 4.9% barrel rate and 34.3% hard-hit rate for the season, he has two home runs and a .115 ISO but has created runs 13% better than average in 186 plate appearances. Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic are the team’s two top options, the outfielders are priced at just $5,500/$3,500 and $5,000/$3,100, Rodriguez has seven home runs but has scuffled at just .211/.278/.386 with an 87 WRC+ and Kelenic has eight home runs with a .255 ISO and 141 WRC+. Eugenio Suarez has four home runs but just a .106 ISO, his 10% barrel rate and 44.5% hard-hit rate are somewhat encouraging however, the third baseman needs to get back to the player who would hit home runs in the rare instances that he connects. Cal Raleigh has been doing just that since last season, he has seven home runs this year with a 16.3% barrel rate and 43% hard-hit for the year, despite a 29.3% strikeout rate. Raleigh has created runs 21% better than average with a .233 ISO in 147 plate appearances this year. Teoscar Hernandez has eight home runs with a 13.8% barrel rate and 46.8% hard-hit rate this year, both of which are excellent marks but are slightly down from the 15% and 52.7% he put up in 2022. Taylor Trammell is a good hitter getting a chance, he has three home runs in 34 plate appearances but is slashing a mere .143/.294/.464 in the tiny sample. Jose Caballero costs $2,500/$2,400 with multi-position eligibility, he has three stolen bases and a 122 WRC+ in 56 chances this year.
Atlanta’s lineup is loaded with devastating home run hitters to an almost unfair degree and they will be facing a rookie hurler on the mound tonight for Seattle. Righty Bryce Miller is making his fourth start of the season and of his career, but Miller is another exceptionally good Mariners’ pitching prospect and the model may be underrating his abilities in a small sample. Miller is a control and command ace with a premium arsenal of pitches who has been spectacular so far, pitching to a 0.47 ERA and 0.42 xFIP with a 28.1% strikeout rate over 19 innings and three starts. Miller has yet to allow a home run and has given up just 31.1% hard hits, though batters have managed an 11.1% barrel rate and 90.4 mph of average exit velocity which is pushing the home run projections for Atlanta. This seems like a both-sides opportunity, Miller is very good with strikeout upside against the free-swinging Braves for $9,400/$9,900 and he will probably be under-owned in this matchup, but he is most certainly not safe against the dangerous Atlanta lineup. Four players in the projected Braves batting order have double-digit home runs already. Ronald Acuna Jr. has 11 in the leadoff spot, he has also stolen 18 bases and he is slashing .345/.437/.613 over 197 plate appearances while creating runs 80% better than average. Acuna is worth the $6,400/$4,600 but that is an aggressively high price, so one would hope for lower-than-usual ownership of the superstar at the same time. Matt Olson has hit 11 home runs as well this season, he has a .261 ISO and 132 WRC+ and has barreled the ball in 18.4% of his batted-ball-events. Olson has a 53.1% hard-hit rate and walks at a fantastic 16.8% clip to keep himself involved when he is not hitting the ball over the fence (or striking out – 32.1%). The first baseman costs $5,300/$4,000 and is very much in play, he can and should be played in tandem with catcher Sean Murphy who has 10 home runs and a team-leading .307 ISO with a 162 WRC+. Murphy has been baseball’s best catcher at the plate this season, he has a ridiculous 21.5% barrel rate and a 44.1% hard-hit rate this year and strikes out just 21.9% of the time while walking in 13.5% of his plate appearances. Murphy is very good at $5,100/$4,000. Austin Riley is priced down at $5,100/$2,900, the FanDuel price is far too low, and the DraftKings mark is a big discount for this hitter as well. Riley has hit seven home runs this year while slashing .246/.326/.407 with a .162 ISO and 99 WRC+ over 190 plate appearances. The third baseman’s barrels are way down this year, he was at 15.7% with a 50.8% hard-hit in 693 plate appearances over which he hit 38 home runs last year but this year he is just at 7.7% and 41.9%, and his strikeout rate is up about three points. Eddie Rosario is slashing .252/.287/.423 with a .171 ISO and four home runs, he is cheap in the outfield as a veteran left-handed bat who can knock one over the wall, but he is the first player in the lineup who is not above the magic number in our home run model at just 7.19. Olson leads the team at 16.17 with Acuna nipping at his heels at 15.80, Murphy slots in with a 13.43 and Riley lands at 12.65 despite the early season slump. Ozzie Albies has 10 home runs on the board this season, he is a top second baseman every night that he plays. Albies costs just $4,800/$3,300, he has a .241 ISO and has created runs 12% better than average over 181 plate appearances this year, and has been tearing the cover off the ball with an 11.3% barrel rate. Marcell Ozuna has a 15.6% barrel rate and 45.5% hard-hit mark for the year with eight home runs on the board in 117 plate appearances. Ozuna is slashing just .176/.282/.431 with an 88 WRC+ but his .255 ISO is meaty for such a cheap player. Michael Harris II has had a bad start to his year over 81 plate appearances and missed time with an injury, he hit 19 home runs and stole 20 bases last season and should turn things around, right now he comes cheap at $3,400/$2,700. Orlando Arcia is a sneaky-good hitter late in the lineup that most MLB DFS gamers probably write off when stacking Braves. Arcia has four home runs in 84 plate appearances this year, he hit nine in 234 opportunities last year and he offers three-position eligibility on the blue site.
Play: Braves bats/stacks, smaller doses of Mariners bats/stacks, some Bryce Miller assuming low ownership at high prices, the same idea is viable with Bryce Elder but the appeal is lower
Update Notes: the Mariners lineup is confirmed in its expected form. The Braves lineup runs Acuna-Olson-Murphy-Riley-Rosario-Albies-Ozuna-Arcia-Harris. The run total in this game is down a half-run since this morning to 8.5.
Colorado Rockies (+201/3.85) @ Texas Rangers (-222/5.78)
Veteran southpaw Martin Perez draws the lousy Rockies lineup in a home start tonight, the lefty could provide value at $7,700/$8,400 but he has not been great in eight starts this year. Perez has a 4.25 ERA and 4.83 xFIP overall this year with just a 16.4% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate this year, inflating his WHIP to 1.61, and he has allowed a fair amount of power upside. Perez has a 4.23% home run rate on 89.8 mph of average exit velocity and 39.6% hard hits. The lefty has been better over time, he had a 20.6% strikeout rate last year with a 2.89 ERA and 3.80 xFIP in 32 starts and 196.1 innings, there is potential for a good start at the cheap prices, the Rockies’ active roster is dead last in the league with a 71 WRC+ as a unit against lefties this season. When going to Rockies bats, one would do well to focus on their limited right-handed power upside, which includes Kris Bryant, Randal Grichuk, and Brenton Doyle. Bryant has fie home runs but just a .129 ISO and a 5.7% barrel rate with 33.3% hard hits this season, Grichuk missed time but has made 56 plate appearances with one home run and a 40.5% hard-hit rate, and Doyle has four home runs with a 20% barrel rate and 45.7% hard-hit rate this year. Jurickson Profar is not overly interesting in the leadoff role, he has five home runs and just an 81 WRC+ in 170 chances. Elias Diaz is a good right-handed catcher who has moderate upside for power and has performed well over his first 138 plate appearances this year. Diaz is slashing .331/.384/.460 with a 117 WRC+ this year but he slashed .228/.281/.368 with a 67 WRC+ in 381 tries last year. Ryan McMahon has four home runs but a 69 WRC+ and suffers against same-handed pitching. Michael Toglia costs just $2,800/$2,500 and comes with the idea of upside as a fairly high-end hitting prospect. Alan Trejo and Ezequiel Tovar round out the projected lineup.
The Rangers are a great option for power upside tonight against the visiting Rockies. Rookie Karl Kaufmann will be making his MLB debut for Colorado tonight, the righty does not look like much of an option on the mound where he is available. Kaufmann has a 5.78 xFIP and 7.78 ERA in 37 innings of AAA ball so far this season, with just a 14.9% strikeout rate. Kaufmann is a control and command pitcher with a sinker-slider arsenal and he operates in the low-90s at maximum effort. The rookie is ranked outside the top-20 organizationally, he is not a highly regarded pitching prospect but is the type who could hang around as a quad-A low-end type. The Rangers are scoring 6.2 runs per game, tops in baseball, the team has a lineup packed with talent from top to bottom and they check in as an affordable option on both sites tonight in the premium matchup. Marcus Semien has hit seven home runs and stolen seven bases in his 201 plate appearances this year. The second baseman is a positional star who is typically one of the more expensive options where he plays, he costs $5,300/$4,200 tonight but looks worth the money with an 11.85 in our home run model ranking him second on the team tonight. Corey Seager has made just 53 plate appearances after missing most of the season with an injury, he has one home run with a 159 WRC+ in that stretch and he is a reliable star over the long term. Seager hit 33 home runs with a .211 ISO and 117 WRC+ over 663 plate appearances last season. In the small sample this year, Seager has a 19.4% barrel rate and 55.6% hard-hit rate this season, he was at 10.5% and 45.5% for the full sample last year. Seager sits one tiny step behind Semien with an 11.84 in our home run model. Nathaniel Lowe has hit five home runs on the year, he had 27 last season with a .191 ISO on a 9.9% barrel rate and 44.8% hard hits. This season the contact profile has dipped somewhat with a 7.6% barrel rate and 43.5% hard-hit rate which has amounted to a .176 ISO. The first baseman’s triple slash is down this season as well, last year he was a .302/.358/.492 hitter, this year he is at just .259/.339/.435, but he has improved both his strikeout rate and walk rate in the 192 plate appearances. Lowe is a good piece for stacks of Rangers and he is a viable one-off at first base. Outfielder Adolis Garcia has 13 home runs with a .283 ISO in 181 plate appearances in 2023, he has been mashing with a 15.8% barrel rate and 54.2% hard-hit rate for the year but he is not running as much this season. Last year Garcia stole 25 bases in 657 plate appearances, this year he has just three in the sample. The excellent outfielder is still cheap on DraftKings, he costs $5,100/$4,100 and leads the team with a 13.28 in our home run model. Josh Jung and Jonah Heim have been valuable contributors for the Rangers this season and they are solid MLB DFS options at good prices in the heart of this lineup. Jung has eight home runs with a .188 ISO but strikes out too much, Heim has six home runs and is slashing .308/.372/.511 with a .203 ISO and has created runs 44% better than average over 148 valuable plate appearances as a catcher. Heim costs just $3,900 where the position is necessary and $3,700 where it is not, he can be played on both sites. Ezequiel Duran has been very good this year, he is slashing .290/.323/.492 with a .202 ISO and he has created runs 22% better than average while hitting six home runs. Josh H. Smith and Leody Taveras round out the projected Rangers lineup, they have three home runs in a combined 207 plate appearances this year, but they have been productive for correlated scoring. Smith has a 110 WRC+ in 90 plate appearances and Taveras has created runs 17% better than average in his 117 opportunities.
Play: Rangers bats/stacks aggressively, Martin Perez
Update Notes: the Rockies lineup opens with veteran Charlie Blackmon who has been good for his career against same-handed pitching, followed by Bryant-Diaz-Grichuk-McMahon-Trejo-Doyle-Toglia-Tovar. The confirmed Texas lineup runs as expected until Robbie Grossman steps in for Smith in the seventh spot, with Duran dropping to eighth ahead of Taveras. The run total in this game is up a half-run since this morning to 9.5.
Kansas City Royals (+115/4.33) @ Chicago White Sox (-125/4.78)
A matchup between two struggling pitchers at opposite ends of their career has neither hurler in play and bats on both sides looking appealing. The Royals are visiting as underdogs against Michael Kopech, who has a 21.4% strikeout rate and an untenable 14.6% walk rate in 42.1 innings and eight starts. Kopech has allowed a massive 18.5% barrel rate with 91.6 mph of average exit velocity and a 6.25% home run rate this year while pitching to a 5.74 ERA and 5.82 xFIP, he is extremely targetable and does not look like a wise use of pitching shares at $7,400/$8,500. Bobby Witt Jr. leads off for the Royals, he has seven home runs and 13 stolen bases over 195 plate appearances but has been 13% worse than average creating runs so far this year. Witt is good at putting the ball in play, he costs just $5,100/$3,500 and has an 11.3% barrel rate with a 42.3% hard-hit for the year and was excellent as a rookie last year with a 20/30 season. Vinnie Pasquantino has been very good and underrated for this team, he costs just $3,600/$3,200 while slashing .268/.354/.488 with a .220 ISO and 127 WRC+ with eight home runs on the board in 193 opportunities. Sal Perez went from a slow start to being the team’s best hitter in a hurry, he is slashing .282/.325/.519 with nine home runs and a .237 ISO while creating runs 23% better than average and looks great tonight against Kopech with a 10.38 in our home run model. MJ Melendez’s poor surface numbers are cutting a great discount on what is a premium power hitter under the surface. Melendez has scuffled to just .224/.305/.388 with a .163 ISO and four home runs this season, but he has a very good 12.4% barrel rate and an outstanding 57.7% hard-hit rate when he makes contact. Melendez has catcher and outfield eligibility on FanDuel but is an outfielder on DraftKings, he costs $3,300/$2,800 and is in play with all of the premium contact Kopech has allowed this year. The entire Royals lineup is inexpensive in this plus matchup, giving them additional appeal in the spot. Edward Olivares and Nick Pratto are a pair of hitters who typically go under-owned in the heart of the lineup. Olivares has three home runs and a .158 ISO with an 87 WRC+ over 132 plate appearances this year, Pratto costs just $3,100/$3,400 with two home runs and a 153 WRC+ in 77 plate appearances. The lefty is slashing .328/.416/.493 so far and the former first-round pick has not been a popular play for most of the season. Maikel Garcia has just a .094 ISO and 73 WRC+ at $2,400/$2,700. Michael Massey and Jackie Bradley Jr. round out the projected Royals lineup, both are minorly playable when looking at multiple Royals stacks, just don’t look at their numbers.
The White Sox lineup is better than their 16-29 record this season, the team has too many talented players to be discarded as a bad unit so early in the year, particularly when several key components have missed time with injuries. Chicago draws a good but sometimes frustrating matchup against Zack Greinke tonight. The ancient righty has a 5.01 ERA and 4.22 xFIP over 46.2 innings and nine starts this season with just a 16.5% strikeout rate. The veteran has a 3.6% walk rate this year but just a 7.7% swinging-strike rate and 25.1% CSW% and he has allowed a significant amount of power. Greinke has a 4.64% home run rate with a 7.8% barrel rate and 90 mph of average exit velocity so far this year, even at $5,600/$6,600 it is hard to see major appeal in the pitcher. The White Sox lineup is the better approach, Tim Anderson leads off for just $4,700/$2,800, he has a terrific hit tool as well as individual power and stolen base upside despite his underperformance in 116 plate appearances after missing time with injury. Anderson is cheap for his talent on both sites tonight. Andrew Benintendi has been part of the team’s problems, he was not expected to hit for power, the one promise on which he has fully delivered with zero home runs and a .076 ISO in 173 plate appearances, but he was expected to hit for average and create runs better than his current .278/.341/.354 triple slash and 91 WRC+. Luis Robert Jr. has been the team’s best player at .273/.330/.564 with 12 home runs and a .291 ISO in 181 plate appearances. Robert is cheap at $4,000/$3,600 in the outfield, he has a terrific 14.2% barrel rate and a 39.2% hard-hit rate this year and makes for a great option tonight against Greinke. Yoan Moncada is a cheap third base option for $4,500/$3,100 tonight, he has a 44.2% hard-hit rate this season with two home runs and a 146 WRC+ in his 62 plate appearances. Andrew Vaughn has five home runs with a 104 WRC+ for just $2,600/$3,000. The first baseman is slashing .237/.323/.414 over 192 plate appearances, he has a 48.1% hard-hit rate with a nine percent barrel rate this year. Gavin Sheets and Yasmani Grandal check in for $2,500/$2,700 and $3,800/$2,500 tonight with a bit of upside. Sheets has hit six home runs with a .196 ISO in 108 tries, and Grandal has three home runs and a 124 WRC+ in 140. Jake Burger has hit 10 home runs in 93 plate appearances as a big surprise, he has a 25% barrel rate and 51.8% hard-hit rate in the small sample while striking out at a 30.1% clip. Hanser Alberto is a low-end option to close the lineup.
Play: Royals bats/stacks, White Sox bats/stacks
Update Notes: the confirmed White Sox lineup gives Grandal a day off with Seby Zavala hitting ninth as a cheap catcher, Romy Gonzalez slots in eighth instead of Alberto in a minor change, while the rest of the lineup is as expected. The run total in this game is down a half-run since this morning to 9.0. The Royals lineup includes Hunter Dozier in the seventh spot ahead of Massey and Bradley instead of Garcia.
Oakland Athletics (+211/3.78) @ Houston Astros (-234/5.84)
Another bottom-rung pitching matchup sees Brandon Bielak take the mound for the Astros against the underdog Athletics who land at just a 3.81-run implied team total despite facing a pitcher with a 5.07 xFIP and a 16.1% strikeout rate. The Athletics are another team that has done wonders for opposing pitchers this season, but a great outing by Bielak would be something of a surprise. This seems like a bit of a flat spot on both sides of the equation Bielak costs just $6,200/$7,000 but will not be a major part of our plans on this slate. The Athletics lineup will not be a major option either, they have one of the lowest run totals of the slate and a total lack of premium hitters. Esteury Ruiz has one home run but already has stolen 20 bases in just 198 plate appearances this year which gives him a bit of individual value at $3,600/$3,200. Ryan Noda has four home runs and a .206 ISO with a 140 WRC+ over 140 plate appearances with a 12.9% barrel rate and 41.9% hard-hit rate this year. Brent Rooker is down to .295/.408/.605 with a still-excellent .310 ISO and a 180 WRC+ in 157 plate appearances. For the month of May, Rooker is slashing .230/.338/.410 with a .180 ISO and 116 WRC+ with only two home runs, and his strikeout rate has predictably climbed from 18.6% in April to 29.6% this month. Rooker is still expensive at $3,800 on FanDuel but his price is already down on DraftKings at a more appropriate $3,800. JJ Bleday costs the minimum on FanDuel tonight, the outfielder is a $3,000 option on the left side on DraftKings, he has three home runs and a .279 ISO in 46 plate appearances this year. Shea Langeliers has seven home runs and a .195 ISO in 149 plate appearances as an underrated cheap unpopular catcher on most MLB DFS slates. Jace Peterson, Ramon Laureano, Tony Kemp, and Nick Allen round out the lineup in a low-end style. Laureano leads the group with five home runs and three stolen bases with a 100 WRC+ and would be the most interesting option in a lousy stack at the end of this lineup.
The Astros are carrying a slate-leading 5.82-run implied team total in a matchup against struggling Ken Waldichuk. The young lefty shot up the prospect board last season with dominant strikeout stuff in the minors before getting traded to Oakland. He made seven starts late in the year for the Athletics, pitching to a 4.93 ERA and 4.26 xFIP with a 22.6% strikeout rate. This season, Waldichuk has made eight starts and has an 18.3% strikeout rate with an ugly 11.7% walk rate over 41 innings. He has pitched to a 7.02 ERA with a 5.71 xFIP that doesn’t make him look much better. The southpaw has allowed a concerning amount of power as well, he has given up a 6.09% home run rate on a 10.4% barrel rate this year. The Astros lineup has plenty of power and their two premium lefties do not suffer historically in same-handed pitching matchups, they are a very appealing stack that will be very popular on both sites tonight. Jose Altuve returns to the Astros lineup at long last, the second baseman will be making his season debut after being out with an injury, in 604 plate appearances last year Altuve slashed .300/.387/.533 with a .233 ISO, 28 home runs, and 18 stolen bases, while creating runs 64% better than average. For $5,000/$3,400, Altuve is a terrific way to get an Astros stack started tonight. Alex Bregman is slashing just .224/.340/.379 with a .155 ISO and 103 WRC+. The veteran third baseman has six home runs but just a 4.9% barrel rate and 34.7% hard-hit for the season. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are star power hitters, though Tucker has been slumping somewhat. Alvarez is slashing .287/.388/.551 with nine home runs and a .265 ISO with a terrific 16.3% barrel rate and 53.1% hard-hit rate. Tucker has slouched to a .170 ISO and six home runs in 180 plate appearances, he is priced down to $5,400 on DraftKings but costs just $3,100 on FanDuel. Jose Abreu has been bad over 175 plate appearances this year and has not homered since last August. He is slashing .220/.269/.262 with a 47 WRC+ but has been a star over a sustained time and costs just $2,700/$2,400. Jeremy Pena has six home runs and six steals with a 104 WRC+ over 179 plate appearances and comes at a fair price. Corey Julks has made 111 plate appearances with two home runs and five stolen bases while creating runs 25% worse than average this year. Chas McCormick costs $3,400/$3,500, he is a better buy on DraftKings and has two home runs and four stolen bases in just 68 plate appearances. Martin Maldonado can bend the odd slate with a low-owned home run from the last spot in the lineup.
Play: Astros bats/stacks
Update Notes: the Athletics lineup runs Ruiz-Noda-Rooker-Langeliers-Bleday-Laureano-Peterson-Aledmys Diaz–Jordan Diaz, the final two add a veteran bat and a young bat with minimal upside late in the lineup in the infield. The confirmed Astros lineup includes Altuve as expected, with Abreu moving back into the cleanup spot between Alvarez and Tucker and Jake Meyers steps in where McCormick was originally projected.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-117/4.43) @ St. Louis Cardinals (+108/4.16)
A fun matchup between the Dodgers and Cardinals this weekend opens with a start by lefty Steven Matz, who is pushing significant power numbers in the direction of Dodgers bats tonight. Matz has been average with just a 20% strikeout rate this year in 41.2 innings and eight starts. The lefty has walked 8.6% of opposing hitters and is pitching to a 5.62 ERA with a much better 4.13 xFIP. Matz has always been something of a hard-luck starter who gives up power at bad times, that has been largely true this season and he comes in sporting a 3.78% home run rate on 41.2% hard hits and 90.6 mph of average exit velocity. At just $6,400/$7,200, Matz is not entirely without upside, the starter has been good in spots in the past and is capable of finding strikeouts, but this is an awful matchup from which to attempt to extract pitching value. The Dodgers lineup is loaded against lefties when they are at full strength, they rank third in baseball with a collective .225 ISO in the split, though they are just 16th with a 98 WRC+ so far this year. Mookie Betts is slashing .252/.359/.509 with a .258 ISO and has created runs 37% better than average from the leadoff spot. The right-handed star costs $5,600/$3,800 with eligibility at second base and in the outfield on both sites. Freddie Freeman has a 12.2% barrel rate and 43.9% hard-hit rate for the season that he has translated to eight home runs with a .223 ISO. The star first baseman is always excellent, he is slashing .313/.382/.536 while creating runs 45% better than average in 204 plate appearances. Will Smith is one of the top-hitting catchers in baseball, he has a 13.53 in our home run model to rank third on the team tonight, .02 behind Betts’ 13.55. Smith has seven home runs with a .267 ISO and 165 WRC+ in 123 plate appearances. The right-handed masher of a backstop has a 44.2% hard-hit rate and is slashing .317/.407/.584 this season. JD Martinez has a .257 ISO with five home runs and a 109 WRC+ but costs $4,700/$3,100 in the outfield tonight. Martinez has a 17.5% barrel rate and 51.3% hard-hit percentage this season in a nice bounceback. Chris Taylor hits lefties fairly hard, overall he has a 15.6% barrel rate and 40.6% hard-hit rate this season with seven home runs in the books, but the veteran is slashing just .186/.250/.451 despite a .265 ISO. Max Muncy hits lefties as well or better than he hits righties over the course of his career, he is an excellent option for power and run creation upside at $5,100/$3,900 in this spot. MLB DFS gamers tend to default to skipping hitters in same-handed matchups without looking into whether they should, for his career Muncy slashes .228/.357/.477 with a .248 ISO and 127 WRC+ against righties and .237/.352/.483 with a .246 ISO and 126 WRC+ against fellow lefties, he is the exact same hitter against either hand (he walks slightly less but does not strike out more against lefties). Miguel Vargas, Miguel Rojas, and Trayce Thompson round out the lineup, each has a bit of individual power upside, Thompson leads the trio with an 8.48 in our home run model, he has four and a .200 ISO over 74 plate appearances this year.
The Cardinals are also in a playable spot against righty Tony Gonsolin who has a 21.1% strikeout rate in 19 innings and four starts this year, he had a 23.9% mark over 130.1 innings and 24 starts last season. The veteran has pitched to a sparkling 1.42 ERA this season, but the 4.57 xFIP is closer to the truth. He has been good at limiting power with just a 5.7% barrel rate and 35.8% hard hits with a 2.63% home run rate allowed on 89.5 mph of average exit velocity. The Cardinals lineup has been quietly effective against righties this season, the team’s active roster ranks second in the league with a 122 WRC+ in the split and they have a robust .192 ISO. With relatively cheap prices and a reputation for not being good against righties, St. Louis makes for a sneaky option this evening. Lars Nootbaar has three home runs and five steals this season with a 134 WRC+ in 138 plate appearances. The outfielder has a 40.7% hard-hit rate and has limited strikeouts to just 19.6% with an excellent 18.1% walk rate in the limited sample. Paul Goldschmidt has hit seven home runs and is slashing .302/.400/.517 while creating runs 54% better than average in 200 plate appearances. The veteran first baseman has a 14.4% barrel rate and 55.3% hard-hit rate this year, he is always an outstanding option at the plate. Nolan Gorman and Nolan Arenado are a terrific power core in the heart of the lineup, particularly now that Arenado has come back to life and is destroying pitches regularly. Gorman has 12 home runs with a phenomenal .333 ISO over 153 plate appearances, and Arenado is up to nine home runs with a .189 ISO while slashing .263/.311/.451 while creating runs six percent better than average. Willson Contreras has five home runs with a 116 WRC+ as an affordable catcher in a good lineup. Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson are inexpensive left-handed options with moderate power, they each have three home runs this year with hard-hit rates of 36.9% and 39.4% but both have been below average for run creation. Paul DeJong is slashing .282/.346/.577 with a 151 WRC+ over 78 opportunities. Tommy Edman has six homers and six steals while creating runs 18% better than average in 150 plate appearances and makes for a good wraparound option.
Play: Dodgers bats/stacks, Cardinals bats/stacks
Update Notes: the confirmed St. Louis lineup runs as expected until the eighth spot where Andrew Knizner steps in as a cheap catcher option for $2,100/$2,500 and Oscar Mercado who will hit ninth for the minimum on both sites. The 28-year-old Mercado hit four home runs in 128 plate appearances last year and six with seven stolen bases in 238 chances in 2021 while with the Guardians. The Dodgers are giving Max Muncy the night off in a hit to the lineup’s overall quality, but they are still very good in this spot with James Outman stepping into the lineup seventh. Vargas hits sixth, and Taylor fifth. The run total in this game is down a half-run since this morning to 8.5.
Minnesota Twins (-122/4.22) @ Los Angeles Angels (+112/3.87)
Angels lefty Reid Detmers makes for an interesting option at just $7,900/$8,100 tonight. The southpaw has made seven starts and covered 35 innings this year, pitching to a 26.3% strikeout rate with a 4.89 ERA and 4.20 xFIP while inducing a 13% swinging-strike rate this year. Detmers has allowed a 42.9% hard-hit rate with a 90.5 mph average exit velocity but that has not amounted to too much power, he has given up just a 2.56% home run rate this season. In 25 starts and 129 innings last year, Detmers posted a 22.6% strikeout rate with a 3.77 ERA and 4.20 xFIP with an 11.1% swinging-strike rate, so the strides forward are nice to see from a young pitcher. The Twins have plenty of strikeouts in their projected lineup as well, the team’s current year strikeout rate sits at 26.6% across the projected batting order and their best hitters are aggressive free-swingers. Donovan Solano leads off, he is slashing .267/.343/.341 with a .080 ISO and 95 WRC+ over 99 plate appearances while striking out 22.2% of the time. Solano is very cheap when looking at Twins stacks, he is in for Jorge Polanco who is dealing with a hamstring injury. Carlos Correa is slashing .203/.274/.386 with a .184 ISO and 80 WRC+ this year, he has six home runs but has struggled for overall quality. The 12.8% barrel rate and 44.4% hard-hit rate he has posted in 175 plate appearances are encouraging signs for the veteran star who is cheap for his talent at $4,600/$2,900. Byron Buxton has nine home runs with a .257 ISO while creating runs 29% better than average so far this year. The superstar-caliber outfielder has a 13% barrel rate and 43% hard-hit mark for the season but strikes out 28.3% of the time. Kyle Farmer has a 23.5% strikeout rate over 68 plate appearances, but he has a .183 ISO and three home runs. Kyle Garlick costs $2,400 on both sites, he has one home run in his seven plate appearances this year and hit nine in 162 opportunities in 2022. Alex Kirilloff has power upside and he has hit two home runs so far this season in 44 plate appearances. Catcher Ryan Jeffers has made 64 plate appearances and he has a 31.3% strikeout rate with one home run and a .151 ISO. Jeffers struck out 26.3% of the time in 236 plate appearances while hitting seven home runs last season. Michael A. Taylor and Willi Castro round out the projected lineup.
The Angels have several key power bats who are always in play and always flash upside for individual home runs, including stars Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, as well as Hunter Renfroe, all of whom have 10 home runs so far this season. Trout and Ohtani have identical 144 WRC+ marks while Renfroe checks in with a 112, the trio is bookended by Taylor Ward, who has four home runs with a .097 ISO and 81 WRC+ in 187 plate appearances this year, and Brandon Drury who has seven long balls with a .215 ISO and 85 WRC+ in 160 tries. Both hitters were better last season, Ward had 23 home runs with a 137 WRC+ in 564 chances, and Drury had 28 home runs and a 123 WRC+ in 568 plate appearances. Catcher Matt Thaiss has made 78 plate appearances and has created runs 19% better than average but has just one home run and a .090 ISO. Gio Urshela has hit one home run and stolen one base while creating runs 15% below average. Luis Rengifo has two home runs in 126 plate appearances this season, he hit 17 in 511 chances last year and makes a decent option when going to Angels bats, while Zach Neto has been only OK since his debut with an 82 WRC+ in 118 plate appearances. In a matchup against Twins starter Joe Ryan, who has been one of the best arms in baseball so far in 2023, all of that might not matter. Ryan has a 2.16 ERA with a 3.13 xFIP in 50 innings and eight starts this season, he has been pitching deep into ballgames reliably and he has an excellent 29.7% strikeout rate with just a 3.6% walk rate. Ryan’s 0.84 WHIP, 14.3% swinging-strike rate, and 29.8% CSW% are all excellent marks to start the year and he has been very good at limiting power so far with just a 2.08% home run rate with a 3.1% barrel rate allowed. All of those marks represent strides year-over-year, the righty had a 25% strikeout rate in 147 innings last year with a 3.55 ERA and 4.35 xFIP. Ryan is expensive at $10,300/$11,000 but he should have a limiting impact on the Angels’ power and there are plenty of strikeouts for him in this opponent. Ryan has significant upside for MLB DFS scoring tonight, he rates as one of the top options on the slate in our pitching projections.
Play: Joe Ryan, Reid Detmers, contrarian shares of either stack are fine in small doses, both teams have plenty of upside for individual power
Update Notes: the confirmed Twins lineup runs Solano-Correa-Buxton-Farmer-Garlick-Jeffers-Castro-Trevor Larnach-Taylor, Larnach is a lefty power bat for a fair price late in the lineup. The confirmed Angels lineup loses Mike Trout in a major hit to the team’s value against Joe Ryan, it also sees former first-overall pick Mickey Moniak atop the lineup again in a playable spot that is particularly interesting for the minimum price on the FanDuel slate. Moniak has two home runs and two stolen bases in his 16 plate appearances this year but has not been able to stick at this level in past opportunities.
Boston Red Sox (+125/3.75) @ San Diego Padres (-136/4.34)
The pitching matchup in the game from San Diego is an unreadable mess with lefties Blake Snell and James Paxton squaring off tonight. Paxton surprised everyone by dominating for strikeouts over five innings in his return to action last week. The veteran had thrown 1.1 innings in the last two years and had looked lousy in his rehab starts, then he came roaring back with nine strikeouts against the stout Cardinals lineup. Paxton allowed four hits and two earned runs with a home run but he was expected to do worse in the start. His performance tonight could land anywhere, he should not be expected to pitch deep into the game after such extended absence, but at $8,300 there is potential on both sites even against the Padres tough top end. On the other side, Snell is a frustrating pitcher who can strike out hitters with the best of them, but also walks far too many and gives up too much premium contact. Snell has made eight starts and thrown just 41 innings, he is also unreliable for depth and has limited ability to reach a quality start bonus where that matters. The southpaw has a 23.5% strikeout rate this season with a 13.7% walk rate and 4.61 ERA with a nearly matching 4.63 xFIP. The lefty’s 13.2% swinging-strike rate is very good, but his 27.1 CSW% reveals just how few called strikes he is able to get. Snell has allowed a 10.4% barrel rate and 3.83% home run rate on 41.7% hard hits this season. The hometown starter is also playable at $8,500/$8,900 but neither of these lefties is the most comfortable option and they are both facing tough lineups. Snell is likely to be fairly popular with his name recognition and price, but he has not fully warranted what will likely be somewhat heavy popularity on a big slate.
The visiting Red Sox have their typical configuration in the projected lineup against the lefty, with Rob Refsnyder remaining miscast in the third spot. Refsnyder has undeniably done well against lefties over the past few years, but his appearances and overall numbers, particularly in the power department, are quite limited. The utility player should be more of a leadoff hitter or somewhere in the six range in the lineup, but he can provide effective correlated scoring with better options above and below him in the lineup at just $3,000/$2,500. Lefty leadoff man Alex Verdugo costs $4,800/$3,600 with a 137 WRC+ and .192 ISO over 187 plate appearances this year. Verdugo loses quality in same-handed pitching matchups, for his career he has slashed .296/.354/.469 with a .173 ISO and 121 WRC+ against righties but just .270/.322/.363 with a .094 ISO and 86 WRC+ against fellow lefties. It would make complete sense for Boston to move Refsnyder into this role and let Verdugo slide into a more comfortable role later in the lineup against lefties, but they have only done that once or twice this year. Justin Turner is slashing .280/.368/.427 with a 118 WRC+ and five home runs. The veteran infielder rarely strikes out, he has a 14.2% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate for the year and has been regularly involved in run creation for the team while rounding into form. Rafael Devers has 11 home runs with a .265 ISO and 112 WRC+ in 184 plate appearances this year. The third baseman has a 14.2% barrel rate and 51.2% hard-hit rate, he is a star by any measure but his numbers also dip over the career-long sample against same-handed pitching. Devers has slashed just .268/.320/.420 with a .152 ISO and 97 WRC+ against same-handed pitching over his career. Masataka Yoshida has six home runs and a .200 ISO with a 139 WRC+ in his 160 MLB plate appearances. He is slashing .282/.440/.385 with just a .103 ISO but a 138 WRC+ in 50 opportunities against same-handed pitching. Enrique Hernandez, Pablo Reyes, Jarren Duran, and Connor Wong round out the projected lineup. Wong has four home runs with a 9.7% barrel rate and 43.5% hard hits in 98 plate appearances, and Duran has been excellent over 110 opportunities with a 171 WRC+, three home runs, and seven steals.
The Padres side picks up with superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. who leads the slate with a 17.91 in our home run model. Tatis has hit five this season with a .189 ISO and 113 WRC+ over 112 plate appearances, he has an 8.2% barrel rate and 43.5% hard-hit but he is expensive at $6,100 in the outfield on DraftKings. His $3,700 price with added shortstop eligibility on FanDuel is something of a bargain and gives the Padres lineup excellent flexibility despite the presence of star shortstop Xander Bogaerts who is projected to his second and costs just $5,000/$3,100. Bogaerts has a 128 WRC+ with a .156 ISO and he strikes out just 15.5% of the time with a 12.3% walk rate. Juan Soto is a star with all of his numbers on the rise. Soto has been excellent all year for barrels and hard hits, he is sitting at a 15% barrel rate and 58.4% hard-hit rate for the year, and he has seven home runs with a .219 ISO. The outfielder is walking at an outrageous 20.1% clip and creating runs 42% better than average so far this year but he costs just $5,900/$3,500. Nelson Cruz has mashed lefties for his entire career, the veteran has hit three home runs in 95 plate appearances this year and has a .165 ISO despite a 48.4% hard-hit rate in the limited sample. Jake Cronenworth is a correlated scoring option at first base for $4,100/$2,900 with second base added on FanDuel. Cronenworth has pulled his head above water and sits at a 104 WRC+ for the year. Ha-Seong Kim, Austin Nola, Rougned Odor, and Adam Engel round out the projected lineup.
Play: Padres bats/stacks, Red Sox bats stacks, Blake Snell
Update Notes: the confirmed Boston lineup runs as expected. the Padres have Kim hitting second, Odor is out of the lineup.
Miami Marlins (+104/3.71) @ San Francisco Giants (-113/3.88)
The final game on the slate is carrying by far the lowest run total of the night in Vegas. The visiting Marlins check in with just a 3.46-run implied team total against veteran righty Anthony DeSclafani, who has a 3.06 ERA and 3.83 xFIP over 50 innings and eight starts this season. The righty pitches deep into ballgames and chases win and quality start bonuses regularly while staying out of trouble for runs. DeSclafani has a limited 17.9% strikeout rate this year, he was at 18.1% in 19 innings and five starts last season but was better in 2021 with a 22.5% rate over 167.2 innings and 31 outings. DeSclafani has a sharp 2.6% walk rate this year, supporting his 0.96 WHIP and limiting opportunities for opposing offenses to sequence and create extra runs. In the limited sample, DeSclafani has allowed a 2.04% home run rate with a 43.9% hard-hit and 89 mph of average exit velocity for the year on a 7.1% barrel rate. The opposing Marlins have not been good this season, their 77 WRC+ in the split against righties ranks 28th out of 30 teams in the league. Miami’s projected lineup opens with Garrett Hampson who has three-position eligibility on the FanDuel slate for $2,400 and slots in at shortstop and outfield on DraftKings for $2,300. Hampson has minor upside for speed if he manages to get on base, but he has done that at just a .273 clip so far this year while creating runs 16% worse than average in 78 plate appearances. Last season, Hampson stole 12 bases while getting on at a .287 pace and creating runs 45% worse than average. Garrett Cooper has a 99 WRC+ with three home runs in 115 plate appearances with a 50% hard-hit rate and 8.1% barrel rate this year. Luis Arraez is slashing .378/.433/.473 with a 149 WRC+ in 164 plate appearances this season. Arraez is a great correlated scoring option at second base for $5,400/$2,800. Jorge Soler has hit 11 home runs in 172 plate appearances, he has a .273 ISO and 120 WRC+ with a 19.3% barrel rate and 48.6% hard-hit rate this season, the power hitter is cheap at $5,300/$3,300. Bryan De La Cruz is priced at just $3,300/$2,600 despite slashing .287/.327/.434 over his first 153 plate appearances with four home runs and a 109 WRC+. Jean Segura has been a low-end option all year, he has a 48 WRC+ in 146 plate appearances. Joey Wendle has a 13 WRC+ in 37 plate appearances, last season he slashed .259/.297/.360 with an 87 WRC+ in 371 opportunities. Peyton Burdick hit four home runs last year in 102 chances, he costs the minimum on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel. Jacob Stallings is a cheap catcher hitting ninth in the projected lineup.
The Giants are facing last year’s National League Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara and they come in with just a 3.62-run implied team total tonight. Alcantara is very good and he has nasty stuff, but he benefitted significantly in his statistics from the depth to which he pitched on average last year. Alcantara had more than a 20-inning lead on any other pitcher last year, roughly equivalent to four bonus starts. He won the Cy Young on the back of a 2.28 ERA and 3.29 xFIP with an excellent 0.98 WHIP but his 23.4% strikeout rate is not the dominant mark one expects from the level at which Alcantara is regarded around the industry. The righty has a 4.91 ERA and he has given up a 6.1% barrel rate on a 9.2-degree average launch angle so far this year, up from last year’s 5.2% and 5.5 degrees. Alcantara’s xFIP sits at 3.88 for the year and he has induced a 13.7% swinging-strike rate that is actually well up from last year’s 12.2%. At $9,800/$10,400 the righty is a very strong play for MLB DFS purposes, Alcantara is one of the top projected options in our model and he should pitch deep into the game while finding some strikeouts against a free-swinging club tonight. The discount compared to Ryan and some of the slate’s other top options is significant enough that Alcantara should be considered as a starter to roster above the field if he is at even moderate ownership projections around the industry tonight. The Giants are a low-end stack against this starter, even with his current-year bumps and bruises. LaMonte Wade Jr. leads off the projected Giants lineup, he has been a quietly good option all season and he has seven home runs with a .229 ISO this season. Thairo Estrada is slashing .313/.363/.488 with a 135 WRC+, six home runs, and 11 stolen bases in 179 plate appearances this year. JD Davis has a 52.1% hard hit rate while slashing .290/.362/.481 and creating runs 32% better than average this season in a full time role. Davis is cheap at $3,600/$2,900 but he has just a 4.66 in our home run model in the bad matchup against Alcantara. Michael Conforto is second behind Wade with a 5.13 in our home run model, he has eight on the season while slashing .214/.327/.412 with a .198 ISO and 106 WRC+ for just $3,300/$3,000. Mitch Haniger has hit two home runs in his 68 plate appearances but he has created runs 65% worse than average with just a .123 ISO this year. Mike Yastrzemski has hit five home runs with a .212 ISO while creating runs 16% better than average at $4,100/$3,200 in the outfield. Casey Schmitt, Blake Sabol, and Joey Bart round out the projected Giants lineup, Alcantara is the better side of the equation.
Play: Sandy Alcantara, Anthony DeSclafani
Update Notes: The run total in this game is up a half-run since this morning to 7.5.
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