MLB DFS: DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slate Strategy Notes & Live Show Link – Tuesday 8/1/23

Happy trade deadline day, rotoscouts baseball fans! The exciting deadline should be filled with transactions, some of which may impact tonight’s slate as lock approaches with the trade deadline set at 6pm ET this afternoon and a 7:05 ET start time on both DraftKings and FanDuel and 28 of the league’s 30 teams in action. The loaded board is ripe with excellent options on the mound, of the 28 available starting pitchers there are truly only five or six that are unplayable on this slate. The pitching board is both broad and tall, it demands a wide swath of coverage for many of the very good to excellent options at a range of prices. The slate has several very strong spots for offense but, even with 14 games on deck, there will probably be highly concentrated pockets of popularity around the Coors Field game and a few other spots. Focusing on slightly contrarian combinations of teams from just a few spots down the projections rankings can pay major dividends on a slate like this, including some of the cheap lower-end teams is also a must for creating a diversified pool of combinations, if we are working with only the top lineups pricing will tend to push lineup quality down for one or both stacks in optimizer builds. The large slate and what should be an afternoon full of changes have us in notes mode, be sure to catch the show for updates starting at 4pm ET.

Don’t miss our Suggested Stacks feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.

Join us at 4:00 ET for a rundown on today’s slate and the trade deadline!

Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.

MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Notes – 8/1/23

Tampa Bay Rays (-107/4.07) @ New York Yankees (-102/4.02)

• Yankees starter Carlos Rodon had his best outing since joining the team in his most recent start, a four-strikeout one-run game over 5.2 innings against the Mets that was by no means dazzling but was enough to build on after some bumps in the road following his return. Rodon has a 5.75 ERA and 6.12 xFIP with just a 16.7% strikeout rate in his 20.1 innings over four starts but he has been at 33.4% and 34.6% strikeouts each of the past two seasons and he had a sparkling 2.88 ERA and 2.91 xFIP over 178 innings and 33 starts last year. Rodon is a premium lefty when things are going well, he costs just $9,000/$7,900 and is particularly appealing at the ludicrous FanDuel discount, but there are reasons to mistrust the ace southpaw until we see him at his full powers. The starter projects as a top five option based on his track record and mostly ignoring the slow ramp-up after his return from a season-long injury.
• The Rays have a lineup filled with power and speed, the projected version opens with Yandy Diaz who has created runs 58% better than average with 14 home runs on the board for $4,500/$3,300. Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena are the team’s two stars, they are both priority bats in stacks of Rays, but the entire lineup is playable, including Harold Ramirez whole slots between the shortstop and outfielder to hit third in the projected lineup. Ramirez is cheap at $3,000/$2,800 if he hits in this ideal spot in the batting order, he has a 117 WRC+ with nine home runs in 285 plate appearances. Isaac Paredes has 21 home runs, Jose Siri has 20, they have made 358 and 258 plate appearances respectively and are cheap with very realistic power at the bottom of the lineup. The projected version includes Manuel Margot, Christian Bethancourt, and Vidal Brujan against the lefty in a bit of a diminished version of this lineup but the confirmed version may look quite different, the Rays are a lower priority option from the middle of the board against a good pitcher.
• The Yankees will be facing Zach Eflin who has a 3.64 ERA and 3.19 xFIP and has walked only 3.7% while pitching to a terrific 1.02 WHIP over 116.1 innings in 20 starts. Eflin has been good for most of the season, his strikeout rate sits at 25.2% on 11% swinging strikes and a 30.3% CSW%. The righty gave up five earned runs in two of his last three starts, against the Royals and Marlins of all teams, with an eight-strikeout seven-inning two-hit shutout gem over the Orioles in between. Overall Eflin has been very consistent at pitching into the sixth or seventh inning while chasing win and quality start bonuses, he is in play for $10,300/$10,200 against the scuffling Yankees.
• New York’s roster is fairly shallow and top-heavy overall, the projected version opens with Gleyber Torres who has a 104 WRC+ with eight steals and a 13.8% strikeout rate but just a .319 on-base percentage which makes him an awkward fit as a leadoff hitter. Torres is good for individual power with 16 home runs on the season and he correlates directly with superstar Aaron Judge and mashers Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton. Judge has a 16.03 in our home run model but the rest of the Yankees are below the “magic number” with Rizzo at just 6.76 in an ugly season and Stanton at 9.33 in a short 230 plate appearances. Stanton is below the Mendoza line at .198/.274/.435 but he has 14 home runs and a .237 ISO in the tiny sample and still hits everything extraordinarily hard when he connects. After that group things are dicey. DJ LeMahieu has been bad all year and not his old self for three straight seasons, Jake Bauers has decent left-handed power, which plays in Yankee Stadium in most matchups, he hit a home run last night and has nine in just 172 plate appearances. Harrison Bader is a player who has been named in outbound trade rumors, depending on the Yankees chosen tack this afternoon, if he is on the team he is loosely playable along with Anthony Volpe and Kyle Higashioka from the bottom of the batting order.

Play: Carlos Rodon, Zach Eflin, Rays stacks and Yankees stacks in small portions as mid-range options

Update Notes: 

Milwaukee Brewers (-153/4.75) @ Washington Nationals (+140/3.86)

• Right-handed Josiah Gray still pushes power to opposing teams based on a very ugly track record prior to the past few months. In 2022 he allowed a 5.86% home run rate over 28 starts and 148.2 innings, he was at 6.19% in 70.2 innings and 13 outings the year before. Gray has been much better this season, his 2.92% home run rate is a massive improvement and he has cut barrels by three points and reduced his average launch angle allowed by several degrees. The righty has a 3.27 ERA but a 4.96 xFIP tells a bit more truth. Gray has a 19.9% strikeout rate with an ugly 10.5% walk rate and 1.41 WHIP, he still allows too many opportunities but keeping power in check is his key to success, for $6,500/$8,900 the pitcher does not project poorly in a decent matchup against a Brewers team with plenty of strikeouts and lower-end hitters. Gray’s deeply discounted DraftKings price puts him firmly on the cheap upside SP2 board if nothing else, he is probably loosely playable as an expensive alternative to many more talented options on the FanDuel slate.
• Milwaukee’s lineup can be played in a both-sided situation, they are pulling in strong projections and home run marks against Gray, and they are a very good points-per-dollar value option up and down the lineup, even with a few flawed hitters along the way. Christian Yelich is a star in the outfield, his 53.1% hard-hit rate and 22 stolen bases both lead the team while he lands second to Willy Adames with 16 home runs to the shortstop’s 17, but Yelich is tied with rookie Sal Frelick with a run creation mark 32% better than average. Of course, Frelick is making just the 37th plate appearance of his career the next time he walks up to the plate, so we’ll side with Yelich’s fantastic output. Yelich costs $5,600/$3,600 on top of a lineup filled with cheap prices, catcher William Contreras has value for his power and quality hit tool as well as his place in the lineup, adding a potential plate appearance to a catcher is advantageous where the position is required. Carlos Santana adds a switch-hitting power bat to the lineup and he has just a 17.5% strikeout rate to go with the pop. Frelick is cheap at $3,900/$3,000, the rookie has been very good over his first 36 opportunities. Adames has major power but is a flawed hitter overall, he is cheap for the ceiling at $4,900/$3,000 at shortstop. Andruw Monasterio has a 112 WRC+ over his first 127 plate appearances, Abraham Toro has a good blend of power and speed for cheap prices with multi-position eligibility, Brice Turang is a low-end option but Joey Wiemer provides counting stats, he hit his 13th home run last night and adds 11 stolen bases but has just an 84 WRC+ over 343 plate appearances.
• The Nationals are facing Freddy Peralta who projects well in our model for $9,400/$10,300. Peralta has a 4.46 ERA and 3.90 xFIP with a 28.3% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. The righty has allowed a very uncharacteristic amount of power this season, his home run rate is 3.89% on 40.3% hard hits and 9.2% barrels, which is way up from 3.5% barrels, 31.3% hard hits, and 1.89% home runs in 17 starts and 78 innings last season, it is also well above the six percent barrels, 31.1% hard hits, and 2.41% home runs he gave up in 27 starts and 144.1 innings in 2021. Peralta has upside against a weak Nationals lineup but he has blown up several times and is not as safe as he should be.
• Washington’s lineup is a bit in flux at the deadline, the team traded Jeimer Candelario to the Cubs yesterday and more moves are likely through Tuesday’s deadline. The projected lineup opens with quality in shortstop CJ Abrams who has done everything right since getting promoted to the role, his WRC+ as a leadoff hitter is far higher than the 95 he carries overall. Lane Thomas is a candidate to be traded prior to the deadline, if he is in the lineup he is virtually mandatory in Nationals stacks, even with his July downturn in mind. Thomas has 16 home runs and a 116 WRC+ while slashing .287/.334/.473. Keibert Ruiz is a good catcher with power for just $3,700/$2,400, and Joey Meneses has a decent hit tool for $3,600/$2,500. Everyone else in the Nationals lineup is filler, Dominic Smith has an 88 WRC+ and a .081 ISO playing every day, Luis Garcia has a 76 WRC+ in 402 opportunities, Ildemaro Vargas has an 81 in 120 tries as a replacement level option, Corey Dickerson has a 66 WRC+ with two home runs in 147 plate appearances, and Alex Call rounds things out with a 74 in his 333 tries.

Play: Brewers bats/stacks, Freddy Peralta, Josiah Gray value – mostly for $6,500 on DraftKings as a very cheap upside SP2, for $8,900 on FanDuel he is a very different play.

Update Notes: 

Detroit Tigers (+107/4.42) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-116/4.68)

• The Tigers rank 22nd out of 28 teams by projected fantasy points and 23rd by home run potential, but they sit 15th on DraftKings and 12th on FanDuel by points-per-dollar value on our stacks board. The matchup against Johan Oviedo favors the pitcher, who ranks 11th overall on our board for just $6,200/$8,800. Much like Josiah Gray, Oviedo is a far better option as an inexpensive upside SP2 on the DraftKings slate at the deep discount, he is also loosely playable on FanDuel and he projects well in a matchup against one of baseball’s worst lineups. Oviedo has a 4.60 ERA and 4.60 xFIP this season while striking out 20.5% with a very good 11.6% swinging-strike rate and a 27.1% CSW% in 117.1 innings over 21 starts. Oviedo’s projection in our pitching model has him 11th overall, but he sits closer to the third-ranked starter than he does the 20th by raw fantasy point projections.
• Detroit’s weak lineup opens with lefty Zach McKinstry who has a 90 WRC+ in 341 plate appearances with seven homers and 12 steals. Riley Greene is the team’s best hitter, he has eight homers with six stolen bases and a 136 WRC+ while slashing .307/.372/.467 in 298 plate appearances. Spencer Torkelson is better than many may think, he has put things together far better over the past few months and has made significant strides at the plate this year. Torkelson has 15 home runs with a 12.6% barrel rate and 49.5% hard-hit rate and costs just $4,000/$3,000 at first base. Kerry Carpenter is a good lefty power hitter, he has 11 home runs in just 230 opportunities with a team-leading .206 ISO. Matt Vierling has done most of the damage in his .272/.334/.393 with seven home runs and five stolen bases stat line against same-handed pitching, so he is in play for a cheap price against the righty. Javier Baez has a 63 WRC+ in a sad season, Akil Baddoo has a 79 WRC+ with five homers and six steals in 216 opportunities, Zack Short and Jake Rogers close things out as inconsistent contributors, they have WRC+ marks of 82 and 103, and Rogers has 12 home runs in 226 plate appearances as a cheap powerhouse catcher.
• Pittsburgh will be facing Matt Manning who has a 4.32 ERA and 5.48 xFIP in 41.2 innings over eight starts. Manning has allowed a targetable 4.12% home run rate with 90.3 mph of exit velocity on 41.5% hard hits and 9.8% barrels this season, the Pirates bats look playable as a stack while Manning is more of a value dart throw at $6,900/$7,200.
• Despite landing 20th on the board by average fantasy point projections, the Pirates are pulling in the seventh-best value ranking on FanDuel and the second-best mark on the DraftKings slate by points-per-dollar rankings. Pittsburgh has playable parts in the lineup and they are flashing power among the established players with a few premium rookies providing major salary relief later in the lineup. Jack Suwinski leads the team by a wide margin with 21 home runs, Bryan Reynolds is second with 12, and Andrew McCutchen has 10 in third, they also happen to hit in that order atop the Pirates’ projected lineup. Suwinski leads the team with an 8.68 in our home run model for $3,500/$3,100 as an excellent piece of value in the outfield. Reynolds is affordable at $4,300/$3,400 but he has not been fully himself this season while creating runs just four percent better than average and slashing .258/.322/.436. McCutchen has a strong WRC+ at 117, largely on the back of his 16.3% walk rate and outstanding .380 on-base percentage. Ji-Man Choi has cheap lefty power for $2,600/$2,500 at first base, his 5.27 in our home run model sits second on the team was just traded to the Padres along with Rich Hill in a perplexing move for San Diego. Henry Davis has 144 plate appearances under his belt for his career, he has a 97 WRC+ with four home runs and three stolen bases and costs just $2,900 on both sites with catcher eligibility on the FanDuel slate. Endy Rodriguez is a catcher on both sites for $2,100/$2,500, he is particularly appealing at the extreme discount where his position is required. Despite doing very little with his first 39 plate appearances, Rodriguez is a premium prospect who is expected to hit at this level, he does have one home run in the tiny sample so far. Rodriguez has been outpaced by fellow call-up Liover Peguero who has a 117 WRC+ with two home runs in his first 27 plate appearances in the Show. Peguero is projected to hit ninth behind Alika Williams, who has 10 plate appearances to his name, and Jared Triolo, the second-most experienced member of the bottom half of the lineup at 104 MLB plate appearances. Triolo has a 73 WRC+ with zero home runs and zero steals and a .266/.327/.287 triple-slash. The Pirates are a very cheap stack to roster against a low-end starter, Vegas has them at 4.68 implied runs and they unlock significant opportunities for MLB DFS lineups tonight.

Play: Pirates bats/stacks for value, Johan Oviedo value, minor shares of Tigers value

Update Notes: 

Baltimore Orioles (-103/4.28) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-105/4.31)

• Lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu will be joining what will allegedly be a six-man Blue Jays rotation for the foreseeable future. Ryu has not pitched this season and only made six starts and threw 27 innings before succumbing to Tommy John Surgery last season. The lefty has been working up to this debut all season and he threw 18 innings in recent rehab starts, reaching 85 pitches his last time out with very strong but ultimately irrelevant results. Ryu has been an excellent pitcher in years past, he is an interesting asset for Toronto down the stretch and has a shot to provide upside against the Orioles for $7,000/$6,800. Ryu had a 20.4% strikeout rate and 4.37 ERA with a 3.94 xFIP over 31 starts and 169 innings when we last saw him for a full season at age 34 in 2021.
• Austin Hays slides into the leadoff role with a lefty on the mound and Gunnar Henderson out of the projected lineup. Henderson has hit 16 of his 17 home runs against right-handed pitching and is slashing .200/.349/.257 with a .057 ISO and 83 WRC+ against lefties, so he is a weaker option in the split if he lands anywhere in the lineup. Hays has nine home runs and a .284/.324/.444 triple-slash with a 111 WRC+ and is a capable fit in the leadoff role, though Adley Rutschman is still our favored option given his stellar walk rate and .370 on-base percentage. The catcher is hitting second in the projected lineup ahead of the power core of Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle, who have 18 and 13 home runs respectively, though Mountcastle has his total in 132 fewer plate appearances. Jordan Westburg moves up the lineup in this spot, he has a 98 WRC+ in 81 plate appearances but comes cheap at $2,800/$2,600 with multi-position eligibility. Ramon Urias has sneaky power and also fits multiple positions for cheap pricing on both sites. James McCann has a bit of pop against lefties over his career but he has not been that hitter for some time and sits at just .195/.231/.333 with a 51 WRC+ and three home runs in 133 plate appearances. Jorge Mateo is an afterthought with speed at this point and Ryan McKenna is a mix-in hitting ninth.
• Kyle Bradish is a capable right-handed starter with a 22.4% strikeout rate and a 3.29 ERA with a 3.89 xFIP over 104 innings in 19 starts this season. Bradish has taken small but significant steps forward across the board this season, he is throwing more strikes and striking out a few more hitters while pitching to lower run marks and allowing less premium contact and fewer home runs. For $8,700/$9,700 the righty projects as a playable option from the lower mid-range with what will probably be low ownership in a difficult matchup.
• The Blue Jays are likely to be without star Bo Bichette who suffered a knee injury and left last night’s game. They have Whit Merrifield in the leadoff role in the projected lineup, he is a good fit in that spot with his hit tool and on-base skills as well as his speed, and he offers individual power as well. Merrifield has nine home runs on the season and has been in double digits in most of his seasons in his career. George Springer is back in the projected lineup, he has 13 home runs and 13 stolen bases, Brandon Belt is cheap at $3,000/$2,800 for a player with a 117 WRC+ and an 11.6% barrel rate from the left side, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has major thump from the right side. Matt Chapman and Daulton Varsho have deadly righty-lefty power later in the lineup, they have been inconsistent this season but Chapman has been the better of the two by far, he has a 127 WRC+ with a team-leading 18.3% barrel rate and 59.2% hard-hit rate in 438 plate appearances while Varsho has a 75 WRC+, a 6.6% barrel rate and 38.4% hard hits. Danny Jansen, Santiago Espinal, and Kevin Kiermaier are mix-in options for a Toronto lineup that is downgraded for the absence of one of its stars but is still dangerous.

Play: Kyle Bradish as a lower-mid option, Orioles bats/stacks as a good value option from the middle of the projections rankings, and Blue Jays bats/stacks as a mid-range option across the board, Ryu shares are OK but they are a big dice roll

Update Notes: 

Los Angeles Angels (+213/3.57) @ Atlanta Braves (-237/5.55)

• Spencer Strider is the best pitcher in baseball, just pick where you want to be as compared to his public ownership and put him in that many lineups, there is no need to overthink the situation. Strider has a 39.6% strikeout rate with a 19.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.5% CSW% with a 3.73 ERA and 2.67 xFIP. He has allowed a bit more premium contact and power on the season with a 3.59% home run rate and 10% barrel rate overall, but much of that has come through a bit of mismanagement as his numbers are explosively high in the seventh inning, where most of his minor blowups have happened. Strider simply may benefit from a few games that allow him to work his six magical innings and then hit the pine on a lot of nights, he provides more than enough in his typical six-inning start.
• The Angels did in fact have Luis Rengifo leading off yesterday, he hit a home run and is back in the role in today’s projected lineup. Rengifo is less sneaky atop the lineup but he is in a much better spot for correlated scoring with the team’s stars. Shohei Ohtani leads baseball with 39 home runs, he is worth $6,600/$4,600 when stacking Angels but the overall opportunity is more limited against Strider than against mere mortals. The epic showdown between the two superstars could end only one way… both of their mothers will be named Martha and they’ll agree to team up. We might be thinking of something else. CJ Cron has 11 home runs, so does Mickey Moniak. Hunter Renfroe is cheap and has 17 home runs in what has become a solid righty-lefty-righty mid-lineup power core for this team. The group is joined by veterans Mike Moustakas and Randal Grichuk, who add another lefty-righty power combination to the equation, Grichuk hit his first home run with the team in his first game last night and has been very good all season, and Moustakas has had a good return to form over 240 plate appearances with a 103 WRC+, a serviceable triple-slash, and nine home runs. Matt Thaiss is a capable left-handed power-hitting catcher and Zach Neto has a strong hit tool with a bit of pop as a young player growing at the plate. The Angels are a great lineup to keep in mind for the rest of the week, against Strider the spot is not ideal and they are an expensive bunch that ranks 12th by projected points but 19th on the FanDuel value board and 26th on DraftKings.
• Lefty Patrick Sandoval has a 4.13 ERA and 4.38 xFIP with a very good 1.62% home run rate on just 6.9 degrees of launch angle and 6.5% barrels with 34.3% hard hits and 86.9 mph of exit velocity. Sandoval has been sustainably good at keeping the ball in the yard over the past few seasons, he had a 1.25% home run rate with a 2.91 ERA and 3.67 xFIP over 148.2 innings in 27 starts last year. For $7,100/$8,000 it is OK to take shots with Sandoval, but he seems more likely to potentially limit the home run hitting for Atlanta for a brief moment rather than posting a ceiling score of his own.
• Atlanta should have their everyday lineup mostly in place against Sandoval, but only Matt Olson is above the “magic number” for home runs at a low-for-him 10.48. Ronald Acuna Jr. sits at 9.37 with 24 homers and 51 stolen bases on the board this season. Ozzie Albies has 24 homers at second base and Austin Riley has 24 more at third base. The top four hitters from the Braves lineup are some of baseball’s best at their positions. Sean Murphy joins that list as one of the very best catchers in baseball, he has 17 home runs with a 144 WRC+ and .278/.376/.533 triple-slash. Marcell Ozuna has been an explosive late-lineup option with 22 home runs in 353 plate appearances, Orlando Arcia is a high-end shortstop, and Michael Harris II has a 103 WRC+ with power and speed. The projected lineup closes with Kevin Pillar who has six home runs and three stolen bases with a 91 WRC+ over 121 plate appearances.

Play: Spencer Strider as much or as little as you’d like vs. the field, Braves bats/stacks, small doses of contrarian Angels bats are OK but expensive, Pablo Sandoval value darts are OK

Update Notes: 

Minnesota Twins (-113/4.13) @ St. Louis Cardinals (+104/3.96)

• Veteran righty Miles Mikolas was tossed from his most recent start after hitting a batter for the offense of hitting his catcher on a backswing two pitches prior. The batter reportedly did not notice that the soft-tossing righty had hit him. Mikolas is fairly adept at limiting runs while working deep into games, but overall he has a 4.38 ERA with a 4.68 xFIP and just a 15.9% strikeout rate, he is not an overly appealing MLB DFS option in many starts but his $6,900/$7,400 price has appeal against the high-strikeout Twins. Mikolas has enough juice to find additional strikeouts against Minnesota, if he can manage to limit power effectively as he has for much of the season with just a 2.20% home run rate on 7.5% barrels, he has a chance to deliver value against a team with a collective 28% strikeout rate for their projected lineup.
• Minnesota does have power and they come at cheap prices basically from top to bottom on both sites. The Twins rank ninth on our board for fantasy point scoring, 11th for home run potential, and they sit fourth on the value board on DraftKings and sixth on FanDuel in a both-sided situation. Between Mikolas and the Twins lineup, we will side slightly with Minnesota’s power potential at the plate. Carlos Correa costs $4,700/$3,000 at shortstop, the scuffling veteran has 12 home runs and a 94 WRC+ in 415 opportunities. Edouard Julien is a premium option at second base on both sites, the rookie has a 156 WRC+ in 211 plate appearances with 10 home runs on the board. Byron Buxton has 17 homers but a 99 WRC+ and a lousy triple-slash, Max Kepler has 15 homers and has been three percent better than average for run creation, and Jorge Polanco is a great source of power in the infield when he is healthy. Polanco fits in at second or third base for $4,400 on DraftKings but loses the third base option on FanDuel at $3,000. Donovan Solano is cheap with a respectable hit tool and a 117 WRC+, Matt Wallner has been very good over his first 74 plate appearances, he has five home runs and a 155 WRC+ as a high-end rookie ahead of veterans Ryan Jeffers and Joey Gallo, who both have power at the plate.
• Pablo Lopez projects well in our model for $10,800/$10,500. Lopez ranks eighth overall in a tightly packed top third of the pitching pool and is not very likely to be a popular option on either site against the Cardinals. The righty has a 4.13 ERA and 3.47 xFIP with a very strong 30.2% strikeout rate and a 14.4% swinging-strike rate over 128.2 innings in 21 starts. Lopez has been fairly reliable for depth and chasing wins and quality starts this season. Lopez hit a few minor bumps in June and had one lousy start in July, but he has been consistently good throughout the season and is an option on this slate for his high prices at low popularity.
• The Cardinals are not a pushover matchup, the team ranks 14th by fantasy point projections and sixth for home run potential but they are not great value plays. Brendan Donovan costs $3,400/$3,000 with 11 home runs and a 119 WRC+ in the leadoff role. Paul Goldschmidt has 18 home runs with nine stolen bases and a 131 WRC+ over 463 plate appearances, the star first baseman has a 12.1% barrel rate and 52.3% hard-hit rate this season. Lars Nootbaar has 10 home runs and seven stolen bases as a capable contributor for a cheap price from the left side between Goldschmidt and fellow star Nolan Arenado, who is tied for the team lead with 22 home runs. The other Nolan has the other 22 home run total, Nolan Gorman has been a powerhouse at second base this season, he costs just $3,900/$3,600 with a team-leading 9.76 in our home run model today. Willson Contreras is an affordable catcher with a decent bat and a bit of power, Jordan Walker has been very good in 257 rookie plate appearances and has a 111 WRC+, Dylan Carlson is a playable part for low-end power and speed, and Paul DeJong rounds out the projected lineup with veteran power and 13 home runs in 306 opportunities this year was just traded to the Blue Jays.

Play: Twins bats/stacks, Pablo Lopez as a mid-level option, Cardinals bats/stacks, Miles Mikolas value darts

Update Notes: 

Cincinnati Reds (+146/4.03) @ Chicago Cubs (-159/5.07)

• Solid lefty starter Justin Steele ranks among our most highly-projected starters of the day, he sits seventh on a very tight board with a significant peak score. Steele has a 2.87 ERA with a 3.75 xFIP over 109.2 innings in 19 starts, he has been reliable for quality and depth throughout the season. Steele has a 22.3% strikeout rate with a 5.4% walk rate and 1.12 WHIP and he has limited home runs to 1.56% on six percent barrels, 34% hard hits, and an 86.4 mph exit velocity. The lefty is a good option for just $9,100/$9,900 and he has the frisky Reds at a limited 4.03-run implied team total.
• Elly De La Cruz costs $6,200/$3,600 with eligibility at shortstop and third base, he will be a superstar but he is already priced like one on the DraftKings slate despite just a 98 WRC+ and a 32.9% strikeout rate. De La Cruz has seven home runs and 17 stolen bases in just 207 plate appearances and tons of talent at the plate, he should be in the majority of Reds stacks despite the high price. Nick Senzel slots in second against the lefty, he has an 80 WRC+ with eight home runs and five steals in 239 plate appearances. Matt McLain has a 136 in 301 plate appearances to lead the team, Spencer Steer has been good for mid-range power and speed all season and has a 115 WRC+ in 436 opportunities, and Joey Votto has big-time left-handed power in the heart of the lineup. Christian Encarnacion-Strand had a productive day on Monday and sits at .244/.295/.341 with a 68 WRC+ after 44 plate appearances. Encarnacion-Strand is cheap for his significant prospect bat and power ceiling. Kevin Newman, Tyler Stephenson, and Stuart Fairchild round out the projected lineup as mix-ins.
• The Cubs have a 5.07-run implied total against righty Ben Lively who is carrying a lower-mid projection on the pitching slate but is not wholly out of play for $7,200/$7,600. Lively has a 22.1% strikeout rate, a 6.1% walk rate, and a 3.76 ERA with a 4.15 xFIP over 67 innings in 11 starts but he has allowed too much power this season. The righty has yielded a 4.64% home run rate with a 7.5% barrel rate and a 35.2% hard-hit rate, he is more of a target for Chicago’s bats than he is a strong option on the mound, but a few value darts are OK.
• Chicago’s projected batting order opens with Mike Tauchman who plays excellent defense and who has gotten on base at a .361 clip while creating runs 12% better than average over 220 plate appearances this season. Nico Hoerner has 25 stolen bases and seven home runs despite a 2.2% barrel rate and 33.1% hard-hit rate. Ian Happ has excellent on-base skills and is a strong option for correlation with Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki, and Dansby Swanson through the heart of the lineup. Bellinger has 15 home runs and 12 stolen bases with a 140 WRC+, Suzuki has had a disappointing season and sits at 96 WRC+, it would not be unlikely to see newly acquired Jeimer Candelario in this spot with Suzuki either higher or lower in the lineup. Swanson is a power asset for a cheap price at shortstop. Christopher Morel has 16 home runs to tie with Candelario at the bottom of the projected lineup, they have run creation marks that sit 37% and 21% ahead of the league average on the year respectively. Tucker Barnhart is a mix-in catcher at best.

Play: Justin Steele, Cubs bats/stacks, Ben Lively value darts

Update Notes: 

Chicago White Sox (+185/3.95) @ Texas Rangers (-204/5.67)

• Chicago is drawing a 3.95-run implied total and they sit just 16th overall on our collective projections board with a value ranking of 11th out of 28 teams on both sites, but the team is pulling significant home run ratings against starter Andrew Heaney and they sit second overall in the power index for home run upside. Heaney is a capable lefty with strikeout upside on the right night, but he has, and has always had, a major issue with making big loud mistakes that fly over the wall. Heaney has allowed a 4.34% home run rate over 101.1 innings in 20 starts this season, he was at 4.52% in 72.2 innings last year and 5.20% in 129.2 innings the year before. This season he is striking out just 23.5% and he has a 4.62 ERA with a 4.70 xFIP, there has not been nearly as much good along with the bad as there has been in seasons past. Heaney has a playable mid-board projection for just $6,600/$7,900, he is an option for strikeouts against a White Sox lineup that has a 25% collective strikeout rate overall and a 23.1% rate against lefties. The active roster has a 104 WRC+ to sit 18th overall in the split against southpaws with a .161 ISO. Heaney is not safe but he is slightly playable in a spot where he costs very little for the potential strikeout upside and no one will be playing him.
• Chicago’s bats are our preferred side of the matchup, of course. Slugger Luis Robert Jr. has a 17.31 as one of the leaders of the entire day in our home run model, he is our overall home run pick for the day and he is looking for his 30th long ball of the season. Tim Anderson leads off the projected lineup, he has a 60 WRC+ with one home run and 10 stolen bases and has shown a few signs of life of late. Yoan Moncada is slashing .229/.274/.350 with a 70 WRC+ over 168 plate appearances but he is very cheap at third base. Eloy Jimenez has hit 13 home runs while slashing .285/.330/.477 and creating runs 20% better than average when healthy this season, he is cheap at $4,100/$3,200 and has a 13.93 in our home run model. Jimenez is followed by more power with Jake Burger at a 14.53 in our home run model and Andrew Vaughn who has an 8.95 mark for home run potential with 13 in the books this year. Yasmani Grandal, Oscar Colas, and Zach Remillard round out the lineup as playable parts in stacks.
• Texas is carrying a 5.67-run implied team total in a matchup against righty Jesse Scholtens who will be making a multi-inning start but not a full appearance. Scholtens has no value for MLB DFS purposes even at $5,600/$5,500.
• Rangers hitters are a fairly high-priority stack on this slate, they have a sixth-ranked projections average and land 10th for value on DraftKings and eighth on FanDuel with a 10th-ranked home run mark. Marcus Semien has a 117 WRC+ with 15 home runs and nine steals as a top second baseman for $6,000/$3,700, he is a better buy on the FanDuel slate. Travis Jankowski has 15 stolen bases and a quality triple-slash ahead of Nathaniel Lowe who is underpriced and underrated at first base. Lowe has 12 home runs with a 134 WRC+ while slashing .287/.382/.453 ahead of Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung, who have combined for 45 home runs this season. Robbie Grossman is cheap at $2,600 in the outfield on both sites, he has been 13% below average for run creation in 287 opportunities this year. Mitch Garver is a power-hitting catcher for $3,300/$2,700 hitting ahead of two of the best late-lineup options in MLB DFS in Ezequiel Duran and Leody Taveras who both offer sturdy hit tools, mid-range power, and good speed on the bases.

Play: Rangers bats/stacks, White Sox bats/stacks, Heaney value as a mid-level option

Update Notes: 

New York Mets (-144/5.23) @ Kansas City Royals (+133/4.38)

• The Mets rank third by collective fantasy point projections, first on both sites for points-per-dollar value, and seventh for home run upside against right-handed corpse veteran Zack Greinke who has a 5.49 ERA with a 4.48 xFIP, a 1.28 WHIP, and a very limited seven percent swinging-strike rate with a 24.1% CSW%. Greinke is very targetable with bats, he has allowed an 8.5% barrel rate with a 4.69% home run rate and he will be facing a Mets lineup that has quality despite their season-long underperformance.
• New York is another team in flux, they have sent out a few veteran players already with more potentially on the move throughout the afternoon. As of 2 pm ET there have been no additional changes, their projected lineup opens with Brandon Nimmo, who has a .353 on-base percentage, 15 home runs, and a 121 WRC+ in 466 plate appearances as a terrific leadoff hitter who slots into the outfield for just $4,600/$3,300. Nimmo has a 7.16 in the home run model with a significant upside for correlated scoring this evening. Tommy Pham is very much on the trade block, he may not be on this team by 6pm but if he is hitting second he should be a big part of Mets stacks. Pham has been very good this season and has a 127 WRC+ with solid counting stats for just $3,000/$2,900 in the outfield. Franciso Lindor has 21 home runs and 17 stolen bases and a 118 WRC+, despite a low triple-slash he is still a star shortstop and he costs just $5,200/$3,800. Pete Alonso is unlikely to be going anywhere anytime soon, despite what New York area tabloid journalists may be trying to dredge up in their lousy stories. Alonso is a major weapon at the plate, he has 30 home runs and a .288 ISO with a 14.5% barrel rate and he is cheap for his massive ceiling on DraftKings at $4,800/$4,200. Alonso is one of the top options at first base in a pushover matchup, he has a 14.12 in the home run model and looks spectacular tonight. Jeff McNeil is a slap-hitter who needs to connect to other players in the lineup to make value on most nights, he has a .252/.329/.329 triple-slash and a 91 WRC+ in a weak season. Daniel Vogelbach has seven home runs in 225 plate appearances with a 100 WRC+ but a stout 47.9% hard-hit rate from the left side. Vogelbach hit 18 home runs in 461 opportunities last year, he has a 4.87 in our model but seems like a slightly better option than that tonight in stacks of Mets hitters, particularly where he is not a decision point with Alonso. Francisco Alvarez has massive power behind the plate, the rookie backstop has 20 home runs and a .268 ISO over 272 plate appearances and he remains inexpensive at $4,200/$3,200. Brett Baty makes good contact but has had limited results, he is inexpensive and playable in Mets stacks, and so is DJ Stewart who adds sneaky left-handed pop for the minimum.
• Jose Quintana will be making his third start after returning from a long absence, he has a 17.4% strikeout rate with a 3.27 ERA and 4.27 xFIP in a meaningless sample of 11 innings this year. Quintana has been a good pitcher in years past, reaching the upper 20% range for strikeouts in his best years. The veteran southpaw went five innings and faced 20 hitters in his first start, striking out three and allowing two runs on six hits. In his second outing, Quintana was allowed to face 26 hitters and pitch through the sixth inning, he struck out five and walked three while allowing two earned runs and three overall on six hits. Given the expectation of full innings against a low-end Royals squad, Quintana has a bit of potential for a value option at just $6,100/$8,200, given the upside for a win if he can manage five quality innings the lefty is easily playable as a value SP2 on DraftKings.
• The Royals can deliver value from time to time but they need events like Bobby Witt Jr.’s walk-off grand slam to make it happen most of the time, they are not good at sequencing or getting on base. Witt is the team’s star, the shortstop is above-average for run creation by four percent, he has 18 home runs and 29 stolen bases, and costs a fair $5,300/$3,400. Maikel Garcia leads off ahead of Witt and has a decent hit tool and 14 stolen bases but a measly .320 on-base percentage and a 91 WRC+ in 301 plate appearances. MJ Melendez has a 52.2% hard-hit rate and 11.6% barrel rate which make his eight home runs and .135 ISO borderline inexplicable, he should be a much better power bat from the left side. Salvador Perez is a star power-hitting catcher for $4,400/$2,900, he is cheap on both sites and he is a virtual must-play in any stack of Royals hitters. Perez has 17 home runs but just a 90 WRC+ in 391 plate appearances this year. Edward Olivares, Freddy Fermin, Matt Duffy, Drew Waters, and Dairon Blanco slot in to round out the lineup with moderately playable parts that are only appealing in limited subsets of Royals stacks, the quality, such as it is, is entirely in the top of this lineup.

Play: Mets bats/stacks enthusiastically but watch the lineup for changes, Jose Quintana value

Update Notes: 

Cleveland Guardians (+160/3.70) @ Houston Astros (-175/4.90)

• Framber Valdez is a spectacular option pretty much any time he takes the mound, it occasionally does not work out but we will gladly go to the lefty again and again, particularly for just $10,000 on the FanDuel slate. Valdez ranks sixth overall by raw fantasy point projections but the board is very tightly packed, he is within less than a strikeout’s worth of fantasy scoring from the third overall spot. Valdez has a 26% strikeout rate this season, improving on the 23.5% he posted last year and the 21.9% he worked at the season before. He has allowed a higher launch angle and a few more home runs, though that mostly amounts to a few mistakes when we are talking about a 2.13% home run rate and 4.0 degrees of launch angle for the season. He was famously at -3.6 degrees and 1.33% home runs last year and -5.5 degrees and 2.10% home runs the season before. The lefty has a 3.29 ERA and 3.14 xFIP this season, he walks just 6.2% of opposing hitters and has been excellent at limiting opportunities overall. Valdez is a top option on a deep slate.
• Guardians bats have very limited appeal in this situation, at best they may limit the strikeout upside for Valdez, but their home run marks are cut way down by the lefty’s skillset. Cleveland has been better of late, they have 1.5 stars in their lineup and a few players who are good at getting on base over time, but many of their hitters have scuffled along this season. Steven Kwan is in the leadoff role, he has a 106 WRC+ with a .351 on-base percentage for the season and needs to continue the strong current push upward in both statistics. Andres Gimenez has nine home runs and 17 steals with an 87 WRC+ in a disappointing season but he is cheap for his raw talent at $4,200/$3,000 at second base. Jose Ramirez is the team’s true star, he has been good this year with 18 home runs and 14 stolen bases but has contributed more in previous seasons. Ramirez costs $5,800/$4,100 at third base. Josh Naylor and Josh Bell both slot in at first base, they have 15 and 11 home runs respectively and they can be mixed and matched for salary and ownership advantages. Oscar Gonzalez hit 11 home runs in 382 plate appearances last year, he has one in 83 chances this season. Gabriel Arias has power potential but major concerns about making contact, Cam Gallagher and Myles Straw are mix-in options from the bottom of the lineup. Cleveland is a very low priority stack today, they need Valdez to be off for them to have a good game.
• Houston is facing rookie Gavin Williams, a good young starter who projects well in the upper-middle portion of the pitching slate for just $6,700/$7,800. Williams has a 19.7% strikeout rate with a 3.35 ERA but a 5.01 xFIP in 37.2 innings over seven starts, he is Cleveland’s top pitching prospect and one of the most highly-regarded young starters in the game. Williams has induced an 11.4% swinging-strike rate with a 26.5% CSW% in the Show while limiting barrels to 4.6% with 34.3% hard hits, 87 mph of exit velocity, and a 2.55% home run rate. The rookie has not found his strikeout form at the MLB level yet but he had a 33.3% mark in 46 innings of AAA ball this year, a 37.7% rate in 14.1 innings at AA to start this season, and a 29.1% rate in 70 innings of AA ball last year. Williams is a potentially very high-end pitcher once he hits his stride, while that seems like a lot to ask against the Astros tonight, he is well worth a few value darts on either site. Williams has gone just 4.0 innings in each of his last two starts, but he threw 87 pitches in the most recent outing while walking two and striking out five in a three-hit shutout appearance in the short start. The righty should be able to complete at least five innings if things go well this evening.
• Astros bats are very playable in this matchup, the rookie has them at a 4.90-run implied total and they have a star-laden lineup with their primary players returned to health. Houston ranks seventh by fantasy projections and fourth on the home run board today but they sit 12th on FanDuel and 24th on DraftKings by points-per-dollar value. The price difference is created, in part, by a discrepancy on Jose Altuve, who costs $5,700 on DraftKings and a relatively cheaper $3,500 on the FanDuel slate. Jeremy Pena is an affordable $4,500 underperformer at shortstop on DraftKings, he costs a similarly cheap $2,600 on FanDuel. Kyle Tucker is a star outfielder for $5,700/$3,600 and Alex Bregman slots in at $5,300/$3,200 with much more of a value price on the blue site. Yordan Alvarez is the team’s superstar, the outfielder has a 13.28 in our home run model with 19 on the board and a .318 ISO in just 263 plate appearances, he is a must-play in most stacks of Astros hitters. Jose Abreu is up to 81 WRC+ with 10 home runs, Chas McCormick has 13 homers, 11 steals, and a .285/.372/.526 triple-slash with a 149 WRC+ in a solid breakout, and Corey Julks has playable counting stats with six homers and 15 steals. Martin Maldonado is a cheap moderately playable catcher.

Play: Framber Valdez, Gavin Williams value, Astros bats/stacks

Update Notes: 

San Diego Padres (-177/7.23) @ Colorado Rockies (+162/5.42)

• This game has a 12.5-run total with completely unappealing pitching on both sides regardless of any offensive letdowns or pitching performances last night. Padres starter Pedro Avila has a 6.48 xFIP with an 8.57 ERA and 17.8% strikeout rate as a 26-year-old working in AAA this season. Rockies starter Peter Lambert is stretched out for a full start, he worked 11 innings over his last two starts, but he has a 4.76 ERA and 4.66 xFIP with a 4.64% home run rate and 10.4% barrel rate with 44.8% hard hits in 45.1 innings at the Major League level this year. There is also rain in the area again, this game waited until after 11 pm ET to start last night, a rain delay of more than 2.5 hours, so they are likely to play regardless of what happens.
• Padres stars are highly playable, they are likely to be very popular on this slate but if their ownership is diminished because of threatening weather it becomes advantageous. Ha-Seong Kim has 14 home runs and 21 steals with a 130 WRC+ on the season, he is a strong option for scoring ahead of the team’s stars. Fernando Tatis Jr. has an absurd 27.99 in our home run model to lead the world today. Juan Soto lands at 19.75. The two superstars have 18 and 20 home runs respectively. There were minor rumors that Soto could be available in the right deadline deal, but with the team making the odd pickup of Rich Hill and Ji-Man Choi today, they seem invested in an attempt at an odd run. Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts are both stars in the infield, Machado has 20 home runs, and Bogarerts adds 11 with a matching stolen base total and a 116 WRC+ that has been on the rise of late. The lineup droops around Jake Cronenworth, Luis Campusano, Alfonso Rivas, and Trent Grisham, but in a Coors Game with a team total above seven there is clear upside for anyone in the second half of this lineup stacked with any of the options from the top half.
• The Rockies low-end lineup got worse with the exile of CJ Cron and Randal Grichuk, but as we featured yesterday they have intriguing young power bats that get ignored for MLB DFS purposes. Jurickson Profar continues his inexplicable role leading off, he is a mix-in option in stacks of Rockies hitters. Ezequiel Tovar is a more interesting hitter and he fits at a value price at shortstop. Ryan McMahon has an 11.41 to lead the team in our home run model, he has 17 on the season with a 103 WRC+ overall but is possibly on the move at the deadline. Elias Diaz has 10 home runs with an 88 WRC+ as a playable catcher. If Nolan Jones is in the lineup today he is a top priority bat for $4,300/$3,300 in Rockies stacks. Jones has nine home runs and a .212 ISO with a .273/.351/.485 triple-slash and 111 WRC+ in 185 rookie plate appearances. Michael Toglia is a potentially significant source of home run upside for just $2,700/$3,000 at first base, he hit 32 home runs between the minors and a cup of coffee in the Show last year. Elehuris Montero is also a potentially low-owned inexpensive option at third base, he hit more than 20 home runs across the Majors and minors as well last season. Harold Castro and Brenton Doyle are playable mix-in options from the final two spots.

Play: bats bats bats

Update Notes: 

Boston Red Sox (-103/4.03) @ Seattle Mariners (-105/4.05)

• Rookie Bryce Miller has a 23.9% strikeout rate with a terrific 5.1% walk rate in 75 innings over 14 starts this season. The righty has induced an 11.4% swinging-strike rate and has pitched to a 3.96 ERA and 4.19 xFIP with a sparkling 1.00 WHIP. He has allowed a few too many premium batted-ball events with an 11% barrel rate and 42.6% hard-hit rate, 91.4 mph of exit velocity, and a 3.70% home run rate this season. Miller projects well in the lower-middle section of a very deep pitching slate but his $9,200/$9,100 is incompatible with similarly projected value starters, he is more of a pay-up dart throw against a tough Red Sox lineup.
• Boston’s lineup is very playable, Jarren Duran is cheap for $4,000/$3,100 in the leadoff role, where he has been fantastic since his promotion. Duran has a 133 WRC+ overall with a .314/.366/.504 triple-slash, six home runs, and 23 stolen bases. Masataka Yoshida has been excellent and leads the team with a 130 WRC+. Adam Duvall has been 26% better than average for run creation but he is on the trade block and did not play last night. Rafael Devers has massive power as a star third baseman for just $5,000/$3,600, he has 25 home runs and a .253 ISO from the left side with an 11.32 in out home run model today. Triston Casas’ big second half that we have called for is already underway, the slugging first baseman is up to 16 home runs with a .227 ISO, a 126 WRC+, and a 14.9% barrel rate with a 47.1% hard-hit rate on the season. Alex Verdugo is a high-quality left-handed bat late in the lineup for $3,900/$3,000 as an underpriced outfield option, he has scuffled somewhat of late but has a high-end hit tool when things are right. Pablo Reyes, Connor Wong, and Yu Chang can deliver value on the right day but they are mix-in options in stacks of Red Sox.
• Brayan Bello has a 3.66 ERA and 4.03 xFIP with a 20.3% strikeout rate in an interesting matchup against the free-swinging Mariners. Bello is affordable at $8,900/$8,500 and he has typically been very good at limiting launch angle with a shot at checking home run upside. This season, Bellos has allowed a 3.47% home run rate on 5.9 degrees of launch angle in 17 starts and 96 innings, up from 0.37% in 57.1 innings and 11 starts last year. Bello projects at the bottom of the long list of playable starters, there is added strikeout potential against this Mariners lineup but he is not a high-priority starter on this deep slate.
• Seattle has a shot at hitting for power in the matchup, there are five hitters through the heart of the lineup with significant home run potential. JP Crawford opens things at shortstop with correlated scoring potential for cheap pricing, Julio Rodriguez leads the way with a 4.75 in our home run model and 17 on the board to lead the team this year. The sophomore outfielder is cheap for his talent at $5,100/$3,700. Eugenio Suarez has major power for low salaries and a general lack of popularity at third base, Cal Raleigh has 16 home runs at the catcher position, and Teoscar Hernandez has significant power potential but might be another player on the move before the deadline. Mike Ford and Ty France are playable options at first base, Ford has been surprising with 11 home runs and he remains cheap, France is now cheap after a very disappointing season over 439 plate appearances to this point. Cade Marlowe is an interesting option who has multiple seasons with significant home run and stolen base totals in the minors, and Kolten Wong is an afterthought at the end of the lineup.

Play: Red Sox bats/stacks, Bryce Miller pay-up darts, Bello in small doses is OK, Mariners bats/stacks as a lower-end option

Update Notes: 

Arizona Diamondbacks (-104/3.79) @ San Francisco Giants (-104/3.79)

• We wrote this about Alex Cobb when he was slated to make this start yesterday before he was moved back to duel a better pitcher: “Cobb is very good at limiting opposing power via cutting launch angles out at the knees, he has allowed a 1.76% home run rate on 0.7 degrees of launch on average this year, a consistent ability for him that we have featured several times in this space during the season. The righty has a 22% strikeout rate with a 2.97 ERA and 3.31 xFIP in what has been a quietly terrific season. Cobb has made 19 starts and thrown 106 innings, he is very good for depth and reaching bonuses.” He will have a reduced chance at hitting bonuses tonight with Zac Gallen on the bump for the Diamondbacks. Cobb projects well for $8,200/$9,200, but he is a mid-board option while Gallen lands in a top two spot for $10,500/$10,600. The righty has a 26.2% strikeout rate with a 3.36 ERA and 3.55 xFIP over 22 starts and 136.2 innings, he is very good for depth, clean innings, and strikeouts, though he has allowed a bit of premium contact and is up to a 9.1% barrel rate, 44.4% hard hits, and 91.2 mph of exit velocity with a 2.56% home run rate allowed. Gallen is a strong option against this Giants squad.
• Neither lineup is massively appealing with the talented starters on the mound, both teams are relegated to 3.79 implied runs in a pick’em game in Vegas. The Diamondbacks’ projected batting order opens with Geraldo Perdomo who gets on base at a steady clip ahead of the team’s high-end options including Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Christian Walker, all of whom hit for power and do not strike out frequently. The group has combined for 60 home runs on the season and all three players are well above average for run creation with Walker’s 125 as the lowest WRC+ in the group. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is a power-hitting outfielder with 15 home runs and a .199 ISO but a 98 WRC+ and a reduced triple-slash this season. Jake McCarthy has speed and 23 stolen bases so far this year, Emmanuel Rivera has a good hit tool, Alek Thomas has moderate pop and a touch of speed at cheap prices, and Carson Kelly is a fairly low-end bat at the catcher position right now. The Diamondbacks are not a priority stack in this matchup. The Giants are even more difficult to get to, the lineup opens with quality lefty LaMonte Wade Jr. who stopped hitting for power about a month and a half ago with nine home runs, but he continues to get on base fairly well at a .394 overall clip, though that number has diminished of late as well. Michael Conforto, JD Davis, and Joc Pederson offer premium power bats in a lefty-righty-lefty configuration, the two lefties are the better power hitters, Davis has the better hit tool and has been better against fellow righties, but Gallen is a difficult matchup. Blake Sabol has shown some left-handed power as a catcher and outfielder on either site, Patrick Bailey was good for a bit but has come back to Earth quickly, Brandon Crawford, Isan Diaz, and Luis Matos round out the lineup as mix-ins in bad spots.

Play: Zac Gallen, Alex Cobb

Update Notes: 

Oakland Athletics (tba) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (tba)

• This game does not have a run total or line as of 3:30 pm ET, suffice to say that the Dodgers are massive favorites against the Athletics and Ken Waldichuk who is not at all playable in this spot for $5,400/$6,200. He has a 6.38 ERA with a 5.24 xFIP and 21.1% strikeout rate in 84.2 innings of hybrid work between starts and bulk relief this season and has been better as a reliever. The Dodgers’ elite lineup has a chance to feast and feed an easy win to newly acquired Lance Lynn who lands third overall on our pitching board in a fantastic spot against a terrible lineup. Lynn has had numerous bumps this season and has an atrocious 5.23% home run rate with a 10.9% barrel rate and he has walked 8.4% while pitching to a 6.47 ERA, but the good news is that his xFIP sits at a tidy 4.02 and he still has a 26.9% strikeout rate with a 13.9% swinging-strike rate against the mostly inept Athletics, we remain a bad bumper sticker in that we are “in for Lynn”.
• The Dodgers are the playable lineup in this game, the Athletics are unlikely to crack a 4.0-run implied total, maybe 4.2. Anyone looking to stack Oakland hitters would do well to focus on the left-handed power bats and the rookies, namely Zack Gelof, Seth Brown, Cody Thomas, and Tyler Soderstrom. Leadoff hitter Tony Kemp is an odd choice for the spot, Gelof hits behind him and has a 10.21 to lead the team in our home run model, he has three in 60 plate appearances. JJ Bleday is a playable lefty with a bit of pop, he has eight homers in 243 plate appearances. Brown hits third, he has 10 homers in 217 plate appearances after missing significant time. Thomas and Soderstrom are the team’s top prospects, they were called up 33 and 43 plate appearances ago and have started with WRC+ marks of 118 and 57, Thomas has the one home run and better run creation mark between the two. Shea Langeliers, Aledmys Diaz, and Nick Allen are afterthoughts late in the lineup.
• Los Angeles stackers can fire away with their star power taking shots at Waldichuk, Mookie Betts has 27 home runs and seven stolen bases with a 153 WRC+ this season, Freddie Freeman has created runs 65% better than average with 21 homers and 13 stolen bases as the best overall first baseman in the game, and Will Smith has a 14.4% strikeout rate with a 13.8% walk rate and a .195 ISO this season as a star catcher. Chris Taylor has a 7,59 in our home run model with triple-position eligibility on FanDuel, Amed Rosario slots in with moderate power and speed for cheap prices at shortstop, and lefty masher Max Muncy has an 11.32 in the home run model with 27 on the board and a .292 ISO with a 120 WRC+ this season. Enrique Hernandez, Miguel Rojas, and Austin Barnes round out the projected lineup, they are playable parts but the Dodgers may let some of their better lefties into the lineup with a weak left-handed starter on the hill, not that they need extra firepower to beat Waldichuk.

Play: Dodgers bats/stacks aggressively, Lance Lynn

Update Notes: 

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